What is the difference between sensitivity and specificity in SPSS?
Sensitivity (“positivity in disease”) refers to the proportion of subjects who have the target
condition (reference standard positive) and give positive test results. Specificity (“negativity in
health”) is the proportion of subjects without the target condition and give negative test results.
Florkowski C. M. (2008). Sensitivity, specificity, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC)
curves and likelihood ratios: communicating the performance of diagnostic tests. The
Clinical biochemist. Reviews, 29 Suppl 1(Suppl 1), S83–S87.
Sensitivity and specificity are inversely related: as sensitivity increases, specificity tends to
decrease, and vice versa. [3][6] Highly sensitive tests will lead to positive findings for patients
with a disease, whereas highly specific tests will show patients without a finding having no
disease.
A test that is 100% specific means all healthy individuals are correctly identified as healthy,
i.e. there are no false positives.
Sensitivity analysis works on the simple principle: Change the model and observe the behavior.
The parameters that one needs to note while doing the above are:
A) Experimental design: It includes combination of parameters that are to be varied. This
includes a check on which and how many parameters need to vary at a given point in time,
assigning values (maximum and minimum levels) before the experiment, study the correlations:
positive or negative and accordingly assign values for the combination.
B) What tfo vary:The different parameters that can be chosen to vary in the model could be:
a) the number of activities
b) the objective in relation to the risk assumed and the profits expected
c) technical parameters
d) number of constraints and its limits
C) What to observe:
a) the value of the objective as per the strategy
b) value of the decision variables
c) value of the objective function between two strategies adopted
Measurement of sensitivity analysis
Below are mentioned the steps used to conduct sensitivity analysis:
Firstly the base case output is defined; say the NPV at a particular base case input value (V1) for
which the sensitivity is to be measured. All the other inputs of the model are kept constant.
Then the value of the output at a new value of the input (V2) while keeping other inputs
constant is calculated.
Find the percentage change in the output and the percentage change in the input.
The sensitivity is calculated by dividing the percentage change in output by the percentage
change in input.
This process of testing sensitivity for another input (say cash flows growth rate) while keeping
the rest of inputs constant is repeated until the sensitivity figure for each of the inputs is
obtained. The conclusion would be that the higher the sensitivity figure, the more sensitive the
output is to any change in that input and vice versa.
Methods of Sensitivity Analysis
There are different methods to carry out the sensitivity analysis:
Modeling and simulation techniques
Scenario management tools through Microsoft excel
There are mainly two approaches to analyzing sensitivity:
1. Local Sensitivity Analysis
2. Global Sensitivity Analysis
Local sensitivity analysis is derivative based (numerical or analytical). The term local indicates
that the derivatives are taken at a single point. This method is apt for simple cost functions, but
not feasible for complex models, like models with discontinuities do not always have
derivatives.
Mathematically, the sensitivity of the cost function with respect to certain parameters is equal
to the partial derivative of the cost function with respect to those parameters.
Local sensitivity analysis is a one-at-a-time (OAT) technique that analyzes the impact of one
parameter on the cost function at a time, keeping the other parameters fixed.
Global sensitivity analysis is the second approach to sensitivity analysis, often implemented
using Monte Carlo techniques. This approach uses a global set of samples to explore the design
space.
The various techniques widely applied include:
Differential sensitivity analysis: It is also referred to the direct method. It involves solving simple
partial derivatives to temporal sensitivity analysis. Although this method is computationally
efficient, solving equations is intensive task to handle.
One at a time sensitivity measures: It is the most fundamental method with partial
differentiation, in which varying parameters values are taken one at a time. It is also called as
local analysis as it is an indicator only for the addressed point estimates and not the entire
distribution.
Factorial Analysis: It involves the selection of given number of samples for a specific parameter
and then running the model for the combinations. The outcome is then used to carry out
parameter sensitivity.
Through the sensitivity index one can calculate the output % difference when one input
parameter varies from minimum to maximum value.
Correlation analysis helps in defining the relation between independent and dependent
variables.
Regression analysis is a comprehensive method used to get responses for complex models.
Subjective sensitivity analysis: In this method the individual parameters are analyzed. This is a
subjective method, simple, qualitative and an easy method to rule out input parameters.
Using Sensitivity Analysis for decision making
One of the key applications of Sensitivity analysis is in the utilization of models by managers and
decision-makers. All the content needed for the decision model can be fully utilized only
through the repeated application of sensitivity analysis. It helps decision analysts to understand
the uncertainties, pros and cons with the limitations and scope of a decision model.
Most if not all decisions are made under uncertainty. It is the optimal solution in decision
making for various parameters that are approximations. One approach to come to conclusion is
by replacing all the uncertain parameters with expected values and then carry out sensitivity
analysis. It would be a breather for a decision maker if he/she has some indication as to how
sensitive will the choices be with changes in one or more inputs.
What is Sensitivity Analysis?
The technique used to determine how independent variable values will impact a particular
dependent variable under a given set of assumptions is defined as sensitive analysis. It’s usage
will depend on one or more input variables within the specific boundaries, such as the effect
that changes in interest rates will have on a bond’s price.
It is also known as the what – if analysis. Sensitivity analysis can be used for any activity or
system. All from planning a family vacation with the variables in mind to the decisions at
corporate levels can be done through sensitivity analysis.
What is the difference between sensitivity analysis and Anova?
ANOVA is a statistical analysis used to draw inference about the influence of different
categorical independent variables on a continuous dependent variable. Sensitivity analysis, on
the other hand, is a process that is used to determine the sensitivity of simulation model
outputs to different inputs.
ANOVA can be used as a sensitivity analysis method in computational experiments with a
factorial design of experiment (referred to as factorial ANOVA). Note that Sobol can also be
categorized as an ANOVA sensitivity analysis method, and that is why Sobol is sometimes
referred to as a functional ANOVA [119].
