Exercise 4: (Tutorial 1. (No.

1))
The compact discs from a certain supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance. The results from 100
discs tested are summarized as follows:

Scratch
Resistance
High Low
High 30 10
Shock Medium 22 8
Resistance Low 25 5

Let A denote the event that a disc has high shock resistance, and B denote the event that a disc has high scratch
resistance. If sample is selected at random, determine the following probabilities:

(a) P(A) (b) P(B) (c) P(B’)

(d) P(AUB) (e) P(A¿ B) (f) P(AUB’)

(g) P( A|B) (h) P( B|A)

SOLUTION:

(a) P(A) = n(A)/N = 40/100 = 0.40

(b) P(B) = n(B)/N = 77/100 = 0.77
(c) P(B’) =n(B’)/N = 23/100 = 0.23 = 1 – P(B)
(d) P(AUB) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A¿ B) = 0.4+0.77-0.3 = 0.87
(e) P(A¿ B) = 0.3
(f) P(AUB’) = P(A) +P(B’) - P(A¿ B’) = 0.4 + 0.23 – 0.10 = 0.53

(g) P( A|B) = P(A¿ B)/P(B) = 0.3/0.77 = 30/77 = 0.389

(h) P( B|A) = P(A¿ B)/P(A) = 0.3/0.4 =0.75

Exercise 6: (Tutorial 1 (No:2)

When a die is rolled and a coin is tossed, use a tree diagram to describe the set of possible outcomes and find the
probability that the die shows an odd number and the coin shows a head.

SOLUTION:

S = {1H, 1T, 2H, 2T, 3H, 3T, 4H, 4T, 5H, 5T, 6H, 6T}
A = { 1H, 3H, 5H}
P(A) = 3/12 = 0.25

Exercise 7: (Tutorial 1 (No.3))

A bag contains 3 black and 4 while balls. Two balls are drawn at random one at a time
without replacement.

(i) What is the probability that a second ball drawn is black?

(ii) What is the conditional probability that first ball drawn is black if the second ball is
known to be black?

SOLUTION:

(i) S={BB, BW, WB, WW}

A={BB,WB}
P(A)=P(BB)+P(WB)=6/42 + 12/42 =18/42 = 3/7
6/42=(3/7x2/6) 12/42=(4/7x3/6)
 (ii) C={BB,BW}
P(C/A) = P(C∩A)/P(A) = P(BB)/P(A) = 1/3

Exercise 13: (Tutorial 1 (No.4))

A menu has five appetizers, three soup, seven main course, six salad dressings and eight desserts. In how many
ways can
a) A full meal be chosen?
b) A meal be chosen if either and appetizer or a soup is ordered, but not both?

SOLUTION:

a) A full meal be chosen is 5 x 3 x 7 x 6 x 8 = 5040

b) A meal be chosen if either and appetizer or a soup is ordered, but not both is

(5 + 3) x 7 x 6 x 8 = 2688

Exercise 22: (Tutorial 1 (No. 5))

An agricultural research establishment grows vegetables and grades each one as either good or bad for taste,
good or bad for its size, and good or bad for its appearance. Overall, 78% of the vegetables have a good taste.
However, only 69% of the vegetables have both a good taste and a good size. Also, 5% of the vegetables have a
good taste and a good appearance, but a bad size. Finally, 84% of the vegetables have either a good size or a
good appearance.
a) if a vegetable has a good taste, what is the probability that it also has a good size?
b) if a vegetable has a bad size and a bad appearance, what is the probability that it has a good taste?

SOLUTION:

Let event T : good taste ,

event S: good size and
event A: good appearance

a ) P(T )=0. 78 , P(T ∩S )=0 . 69 ,

P(T ∩S '∩ A )=0 . 05 , P (S∪ A )=0 . 84
P (T ∩S ) 0 .69
P( S|T )= = =0 . 885
P (T ) 0 .78

b ) P (S '∩ A ' )=0 . 16 , P(T ∩S ' )=0 . 09 ,

P(T ∩S '∩ A ' )=0 .04 ,
P(T ∩S '∩ A ' ) 0 . 04
P(T |S '∩ A ' )= = =0 . 25
P( S '∩ A ' ) 0 . 16

Exercise 24: (Tutorial 1 (No.6))

A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are selected at random,
without replacement, from the batch. Let A and B denote that the first and second selected is defective
respectively

a) Are A and B independent events?

b) If the sampling were done with replacement, would A and B be independent?
SOLUTION:

Using tree diagram:

a) P (B|A) = 4/499 P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A’)P(A’) = 5/500

Because P (B|A) not equal to P(B) , then A and B are not independent events

b) A and B are independent events because P (B|A) = P(B) = 5/500

Exercise 33: (Tutorial 1 (No. 7))

Three machines A, B and C produce identical items of their respective output 5%, 4% and 3% of the items are
faulty. On a certain day A has produced 25%, B has produced 30% and C has produced 45% of the total output.
An item selected at random is found to be faulty. What are the chance that it was produced by C?

SOLUTION:

Let F be the event that the item is faulty.

(i) P(F) = P(FA)+P(FB)+P(FC)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)

= 0.038

(ii) P(C |F) =P(FC)/P(F) = (0.45)(0.03)/0.038 = 0.355

Exercise 34: (Tutorial 1 (No. 8))

Suppose that a test for Influenza A, H1N1 disease has a very high success rate: if a tested patient has the
disease, the test accurately reports this, a ’positive’, 99% of the time, and if a tested patient does not have the
disease, the test accurately reports that, a ’negative’, 95% of the time. Suppose also, however, that only 0.1% of
the population have that disease.

(i) What is the probability that the test returns a positive result?
(ii) If the patient has a positive, what is the probability that he has the disease?
(iii) What is the probability of a false positive?

SOLUTION:

Let D be the event that the patient has the disease, and E be the event that the test returns a positive result.

(i) P(E) = P(DE) + P(DCE) = (0.001)(0.99) + (0.999)(0.05) = 0.05094

(ii) The probability that the patient has the disease given that he has a positive test actually is the
probability of a true positive, that is

P(D |E) = P(DE)/P(E) = (0.001)(0.99)/0.05094 = 0.019 –

(iii) P(False Positive) = 1 - P(D |E) = 1 – 0.019 = 0.981

Exercise 4: (Tutorial 2. (No. 2))
The following data are direct solar intensity measurements (watts/m 2) on different days at a location in southern
Spain: 562, 869, 708, 775, 775, 704, 809, 856, 655, 806, 878, 909, 918, 558, 768, 870, 918, 940, 946, 661, 820,
898, 935, 952, 957, 693, 835, 905, 939, 955, 960, 498, 653, 730, 753. Calculate the sample mean, variance and
sample standard deviation.

SOLUTION:

Sample average:

Sample variance:

Sample standard deviation:

Exercise 5: (Tutorial 2. (No.3))

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the following samples of marks for the engineering
mathematics 1 final examination.

84.9 81.9 80.8 79.4 78.2 76.5

75.0 73.8 72.7 72.6 71.4 70.9
69.3 68.6 67.5 66.8 65.2 64.4
59.5 58.3 58.5 57.6 56.9 55.2
48.2 48.0 47.8 46.5 45.9 44.6
38.3 37.4 36.8 36.5 35.6 34.9

SOLUTION:

Mean = 2166.4 / 36 = 60.177

Variance = 234.177
Standard deviation = 15.302
Exercise 8: (Tutorial 2. (No.4))
The data that follow represent the yield on 90 consecutive batches of ceramic substrate to which a metal coating
has been applied by a vapor-deposition process.

94.1 87.3 94.1 92.4 84.6 85.4

93.2 84.1 92.1 90.6 83.6 86.6
90.6 90.1 96.4 89.1 85.4 91.7
91.4 95.2 88.2 88.8 89.7 87.5
88.2 86.1 86.4 86.4 87.6 84.2
86.1 94.3 85.0 85.1 85.1 85.1
95.1 93.2 84.9 84.0 89.6 90.5
90.0 86.7 78.3 93.7 90.0 95.6
92.4 83.0 89.6 87.7 90.1 88.3
87.3 95.3 90.3 90.6 94.3 84.1
86.6 94.1 93.1 89.4 97.3 83.7
91.2 97.8 94.6 88.6 96.8 82.9
86.1 93.1 96.3 84.1 94.4 87.3
90.4 86.4 94.7 82.6 96.1 86.4
89.1 87.6 91.1 83.1 98.0 84.5

(i) Construct a cumulative frequency plot and histogram for the yield
(ii) Construct a stem-and-leaf display for these data.
(iii) Find the median, the quartiles, and the 5th and 95th percentiles for the yield

SOLUTION:

(i)
(ii) Stem-and-leaf display for yield: unit = 78|3 represents 78.3

F S LEAF
7
1 8 3
8
2 2 6 9
8
4 3 0 1 6 7
8
8 4 0 1 1 1 2 5 6 9
6 8 0 1 1 1 4 4
 5
8
10 6 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 6 6 7
8
7 7 3 3 3 5 6 6 7
8
5 8 2 2 3 6 8
8
6 9 1 1 4 6 6 7
9
10 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6
9
4 1 1 2 4 7
9
3 2 1 4 4
9
5 3 1 1 2 2 7
9
8 4 1 1 1 3 3 4 6 7
9
4 5 1 2 3 6
9
4 6 1 3 4 8
9
2 7 3 8
9
1 8 0
90

(ii) Median = 89.25, 1st Q = 86.1, 3rd Q = 93.1, 5th% = 83.325, 95th% = 96.355

The following data are the joint temperatures of the O-rings (°F) for each test firing or actual launch of the space
shuttle rocket motor (from Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, Vol. 1, pp. 129–
131): 84, 49, 61, 40, 83, 67, 45, 66, 70, 69, 80, 58, 68, 60, 67, 72, 73, 70, 57, 63, 70, 78, 52, 67, 53, 67, 75, 61,
70, 81, 76, 79, 75, 76, 58, 31.

(i) Compute the sample mean and sample standard deviation;

(i) Find the upper and lower quartiles of temperature;
(ii) Find the upper and lower quartiles of temperature;
(iii) Find the median;
(iv) Set aside the smallest observation (31°F) and recomputed the quantities in parts (a), (b), and (c).
Comment on your findings. How “different” are the other temperatures from this smallest value?; and
(v) Construct a box plot of the data and comment on the possible presence of outliers.

Solution:

(i) Mean: 65.86, Standard Deviation: 12.16

(ii) Q1: 58.5, Q3: 75
 (iii) Median: 67.5
(iv) Mean: 66.86, Standard Deviation: 10.74, Q1: 60, Q3: 75,
Median: 68
The mean has increased while the sample standard deviation has decreased. The lower quartile
has increased while the upper quartile has remained unchanged. The median has increased
slightly due to the removal of the data point. The smallest value appears quite different than
the other temperature values.
(v) Using the entire data set, the box plot is

The value of 31 appears to be one possible outlier.

Exercise 3: (Tutorial 3. No. 2))

At UTP, the business students run an investment club. Each semester they create investment portfolios in
multiples of RM1, 000 each. Records from the past several years show the following probabilities of profits
(rounded to the nearest RM50). In the table below, x = profit per RM1, 000 and P(x) is the probability of earning
that profit.

x 0 50 100 15 200
0
0.15 0.3 k 0.2 0.05
5

(a) Determine the value of k that results in a valid probability distribution.

(b) The profit per RM1, 000 is a random variable. Is it discrete or continuous? Explain.
(c) Find the expected value of the profit in a $1,000 portfolio.
(d) Find the standard deviation of the profit.
(e) What is the probability of a profit of $150 or more in a RM1, 000 portfolio?

Solution:

(a) k = 1 – (0.15+0.35+0.2+0.05) = 0.25;

(b) Discrete since the profit is in term of integer value;
(c) E(X) = (0)(0.15)+(50)(0.35)+(100)(0.25)+(150)(0.2)+(200)(0.05)
= 82.5

(d) Sd(X) = √ V ( X ) √ 3068 .75=55 .3963

e) P( X ≤150)=1−P( X >150)=1−P( X =200)=1−0 . 05=0 . 95

Exercise 5: (Tutorial 3. (No. 3))

A local cab company is interested in the number of pieces of luggage a cab carries on a taxi run. A random
sample of 260 taxi runs gave the following information. x = number of pieces of luggage and f is the frequency
with which taxi runs carried x pieces of luggage.

x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f: 42 51 63 38 19 16 12 10 6 2 1

(a) Find the probability distribution for x.

(b) Make a histogram of the probability distribution.
(c) Estimate the probability that a taxi run will have from 0 to 4 pieces of luggage
(including 0 and 4).
(d) What is the expected value of x?
(e) What is the standard deviation of x.

Solution:

(a) X: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f: 42 51 63 38 19 16 12 10 6 2 1
P(X): 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00

(b)

Histogram P(X) vs X

0.30

0.25

0.20
P(X)

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
X

(c) P(0≤X≤4 )=P( X=0 )+P( X =1)+P( X =2)+P( X =3 )+P ( X=4 )

= 0.16 + 0.20 + 0.24 + 0.15 + 0.07 = 0.82

(d) E(X)=2.55
(e) SD(X) = 4.66

Exercise 7: (Tutorial 3. (No.4))

The probability of successfully landing a plane using a flight simulator is given as 0.80. Nine randomly and
independently chosen student pilots are asked to try to fly the plane using the simulator.

(a) What is the probability that all the student pilots successfully land the plane using the simulator?
(b) What is the probability that none of the student pilots successfully lands the plane using the simulator?
(c) What is the probability that exactly eight of the student pilots successfully land the plane using the
simulator?

Solution:

(a) The probability that all the student pilots successfully land the plane using
the simulator is
(b) The probability that none of the student pilots successfully lands the plane
using the simulator is

(c) The probability that exactly eight of the student pilots successfully land
the plane using the simulator is

Exercise 10: (Tutorial 3. (No.5))

The number of cracks in a section of PLUS highway that are significant enough to require repair is assumed to
follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of two cracks per kilometer. Determine the probability that
(a) there are no cracks at all in 2km of highway;
(b) at least one crack in 500meter of highway; and
(c) there are exactly 3 cracks in 0.5km of highway.

Solution:

4 0 e−4
P( X =0 )= =0 .0183
(a) 0!
10 e−1
P( X ≥1)=1−P( X =0)=1− =0 . 6321
(b) 0!
13 e−1
P( X =3)= =0 .0613
(c) 3!

Exercise 3: (Tutorial 4. (No.1))

Let X be a continuous random variable with pdf given by

{ −2x
f(x)=¿ kxe , x>0 ¿ ¿¿¿
Find
(i) the value of constant k;
(ii) P(X > 1);
(iii) P(0 < X < 2)
(iv) the mean of X; and
(v) the variance of X.

Solution:
 ∞
1 −2 x ∞ ∞ 1 −2 x 1 1
∫ kxe −2 x
dx=−k xe | −k ∫− e dx=− e−2 x|∞0 k= k=1⇒ k=4
2 2 4 4
(i) 0 0 0
∞ ∞
P( X >1 )=∫ 4 xe −2 x
dx=−2 xe −2 x|∞1 + ∫ 2e−2 x dx=2e−2+e−2=3 e−2=0 . 406
(ii) 1 1

2 2
P(0< X <2)=∫ 4 xe −2x
dx=−2 xe−2 x|20 + ∫ 2 e−2 x dx=−4 e− 4+[−e−4 +1 ]
0 0
−4
(iii) =−5 e +1=0. 9084
∞
mean( X )=E( X )=∫ 4 x 2 e−2 x dx=1
(iv) 0

∞
3
E( X )=∫ 4 x 3 e−2 x dx=
2

0
2
3 1
∴ Var( X )= −1 2=
(v) 2 2

Exercise 6: (Tutorial 4. (No.2))

Suppose a random variable, X has a uniform distribution with a = 5 and b = 9. Find
a. the cdf, F(x)
b. P(5.5 < X < 8).
c. P(X < 7).
d. the mean of X; and
e. the standard deviation of X.

Solution:

Pdf of X is
f ( x)=¿ { 1
4
, 5≤x≤9 ¿ ¿¿¿

{ {
x 5 x
1 1
F(x)=¿ ∫ 0dx=0 for x<5 ∫ 0dx+∫ dx= x for 5≤x¿¿¿¿¿
¿
−∞ −∞ 5 4 4

(a)
(b)
¿
½
(c) ½
(d) Mean(X)=7
(e) SD(X)=1.154

Exercise 9: (Tutorial 4. (No. 3))

The time between telephone calls to ASTRO, a cable television payment processing center follows an
exponential distribution with a mean of 1.5 minutes. What is the probability that the time between the next two
calls
(i). at least 45 seconds?
(ii). will be between 50 to 100 seconds?; and
(iii) at most 150 seconds?

Solution:

2
{
pdf for X is f (x)=¿ e−2/3 x , x≥0 ¿ ¿¿¿
3
∞
45 2
P( X ≥ )= ∫ e−2/3 x dx=−e−2/3 x|∞45 /60=0 . 6065
(i)
60 45/60 3
(ii) P(50/60 < X < 100/60) =0.2446
(iii) P(X < 150/60) = 0.8111

Exercise 11: (Tutorial 4. (No. 4))

An average LCD Projector bulb manufactured by the ABC Corporation lasts 300 days with variance of
2500days. By assuming that the bulb life is normally distributed, what is the probability that the bulb will last
(i) at most 365 days?
(ii) between 250days and 350days?
(iii) at least 400days?

Solution:
365−300
P( X ≤365)=P(Z ≤ )=P( Z≤1 .3 )=φ(1. 3 )=0 . 9032
(i) 50
(ii) P(250 < X < 350)=P(-1 < Z < 1) = 0.6827
(iii) P(X > 400)=P(Z > 2)=1-0.02275

Exercise 3: (Tutorial 5, No.1)

Given that X is normally distributed with mean 20 and standard deviation 2, compute the following for n=40.
(a) Mean and variance of X
(b) P( X ≤19)
(c) P( X >22)
(d) P( 19≤X ≤21.5)
Solution:
(a) Mean of X = 20 and variance of X = 4/40 = 0.1
19−20
P( X ≤19 )=P(Z ≤ )=P( Z≤−3 . 16)=0 .000789
(b) √0 . 1
 22−20
P( X >22)=P (Z > )=P (Z >6 . 32)=1−P(Z ≤6 .32 )=1−1=0
(c) √ 0 . 1)

19−20 21 .5−20
P( 19≤X ≤21. 5 )=P( ≤Z≤ )=P(−3. 16≤Z ≤7 .9 )
√ 0 .1 √ 0 .1
(d) =Φ(7 . 9 )−Φ(−3 . 16 )=1−0 . 000789=0. 999211

Exercise 4: (Tutorial 5, No.2)

Let X denote the number of flaws in a 1 in length of copper wire. The pmf of X is given in the following table

X=x 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 0.48 0.39 0.12 0.01

100 wires are sampled from this population. What is the probability that the average number of flaws per wire in
this sample is less than 0.5?

Solution: Given that,

Mean of X = 0(0.48) + 1(0.39) + 2(0.12) + 3(0.01)=0.66
Variance of X =[ 02(0.48) + 12(0.39) + 22(0.12) + 32(0.01) ] – (0.66)2 = 0.5244
If n=100, the mean of X is 0.66 and the variance of X is 0.5244/100 = 0.005244
0 .5−0 . 66
P( X <0 .5 )=P( Z< )=P (Z <−2 . 21)=0 . 0136
So, √ 0 . 005244

Exercise 5: (Tutorial 5, No.3)

At a large university, the mean age of the students is 22.3 years, and the standard deviation is 4 years. A random
sample of 64 students is drawn. What is the probability that the average age of these students is greater than 23
years?

Solution: Given that, the mean of X is 22.3 and the variance of X is 16

If n = 64, the mean of X is 22.3 and the variance of X is 16/64 = 0.25

23−22. 3
P( X >23)=P(Z < )=P( Z<1. 4 )=1−P( Z≤1. 4 )
√ 0 . 25
So, =1−Φ(1 . 4 )=1−0. 919=0 . 081