EEE 505 Group Assignment
Due Date: 20th December, 2023
S/N REG NO. NAMES OF STUDENT
1 EEG/2016/079 ABDULAZEEZ IBRAHIM AKINTAYO
2 EEG/2017/006 ADEBUNMI MIRACLE MAYOWA
3 EEG/2017/011 ADENIRAN OLUSOLA EMMANUEL
4 EEG/2017/016 ADETONA OLUWATOBI RIDWAN
5 EEG/2017/021 AGBOOLA EMMANUEL IFEOLUWA
6 EEG/2017/025 AJILO GABRIEL AYOMIDE
7 EEG/2017/029 AKINOLA SHAFIU OLAWALE
8 EEG/2017/036 AWODIRE MAYOWA GABRIEL
9 EEG/2017/042 BAYO-ADEGOKE IYANUOLUWA JONATHAN
10 EEG/2017/046 DARE HARRY OLUWASEYI
11 EEG/2017/050 ELUYEMI AYODEJI PRAISE
12 EEG/2017/054 FATUNMBI OMOTOLANI FEYIKEMI
13 EEG/2017/061 JAMES FAVOUR UTIBE-ABASI
14 EEG/2017/070 LAWAL TOHEEB BABATUNDE
15 EEG/2017/074 NWEKE EMEKA BERNARD
16 EEG/2017/079 OKEWUNMI PAUL TEMILOLUWA
17 EEG/2017/083 OLADIRAN ALABA D
18 EEG/2017/087 OLUGBEMIGA JESUDAMILOLA ABUGEWA
19 EEG/2017/091 OMOLOJU ADEFOLAHAN RUFUS
20 EEG/2017/096 OWATI MOFIYINFOLUWA DANIEL
21 EEG/2017/100 OYELERE TAIWO PAUL
22 EEG/2017/105 TAIWO ADEDOTUN KEHINDE
23 EEG/2017/110 ADEBUNMI HABEEB OPEYEMI
24 EEG/2018/100 ADEOYE FAITH ADEBOWALE
25 EEG/2018/106 FABIYI IDOWU NIYI
26 EEG/2018/110 IGE SAMSON OMOTAYO
27 EEG/2018/114 OGUNDEJI ABIOLA SAMUEL
Question
An electrical power distribution company needs a system to manage the failure rates
of the distribution lines in a town. Propose a suitable system based on an appropriate
probability distribution to estimate the chances of a certain number of lines failing
and foster proper action by the power company. Demonstrate the effectiveness of
your system with a range of values and relevant plot(s)
0.1 Introduction
Probability distributions find application across various scientific disciplines. They
serve the purpose of quantifying and forecasting probabilities, as well as assessing
the likelihood of specific outcomes. Additionally, they play a role in establishing
confidence intervals for estimated values. Two fundamental types of probability dis-
tribution functions exist: discrete and continuous.
Discrete distributions consist of data elements with a finite set of values within a
specified interval. A probability mass function (PMF) is employed to ascertain the
probability associated with the discrete variable, while a cumulative mass function
(CMF) is utilized to determine the probability that an observation will be less than
or equal to a specified value Glantz and Kissell (2013). In essence, these functions
can be described as follows.
1
Probability Mass Function (PMF):
f (x) = Prob(X = x)
Cumulative Mass Function (CMF):
F (x) = Prob(X ≤ x)
The primary cause of electricity supply disruptions to end-users is often attributed to
breakdowns in the distribution grid. Consequently, accurately assessing the reliabil-
ity of this grid is crucial for strategic planning of future infrastructure enhancements.
However, the determination of reliability indices like the System Average Interrup-
tion Duration Index (SAIDI) and the System Average Interruption Frequency Index.
(SAIFI) relies heavily on the failure rates of various components, typically derived
from historical data. Despite the inherent uncertainty, many planning models tend to
treat these failure rates as if they were deterministic (Barra et al., 2020) We aim to
propose a probability-based system designed to proactively estimate the failure rates
of power lines, assisting the power distribution company in anticipating potential
issues.
2
0.2 Problem Statement
In a town, an electrical power distribution company experiences challenges in man-
aging the failure rates of distribution lines, impacting the reliability of power supply
to residents and businesses. The lack of an effective system for assessing and predict-
ing line failures hinders the company’s ability to take proactive measures, leading to
increased downtime and potential disruptions. To address this issue, a system based
on an appropriate probability distribution needs to be proposed to estimate the like-
lihood of a certain number of lines failing. This system aims to facilitate timely and
informed decision-making by the power company, allowing them to implement pre-
ventive measures and optimize resource allocation.
To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, a range of values represent-
ing different scenarios and potential failure rates will be considered. The system’s
output will be visually represented through relevant plots, illustrating the predicted
chances of line failures under varying conditions. This approach will provide a com-
prehensive understanding of the system’s predictive capabilities and its potential to
foster proper action by the power company in mitigating distribution line failures.
3
0.3 Research Methodology
0.4 Illustration and Results
0.5 Conclusion
4
REFERENCES
Barra, J. d. l., Gil, E., Angulo, A., and Navarro-Espinosa, A. (2020). Effect of failure
rates uncertainty on distribution systems reliability. In 2020 IEEE Power Energy
Society General Meeting (PESGM), pages 1–5.
Glantz, M. and Kissell, R. (2013). Multi-asset risk modeling: techniques for a global
economy in an electronic and algorithmic trading era. Academic Press.
