RISK ASSESSMENT
KG32603
SAFETY IN OIL AND GAS
PREPARED BY: TS DR NORZILAWATI MOHAMAD
WHAT IS RISK?
Combination of the likelihood
and consequences of a
specified hazardous event Risk = Severity x Probability
occurring
RISK
• Risk is therefore expressed as fatality per year or money lost per
year
• There are several classes of risk assessments currently employed in
the world
• In Malaysia, the risk assessments will incorporate with Malaysia’s
Safety Legislation
• Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
• Chemical Health Risk Assessment (CHRA)
• Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC)
SEVERITY
• Severity is the extent of damage incurred following the accident
• It can be in the form of fatality, injury, material loss or environmental
degradation
• To estimate the severity on an incident, detailed mathematical models are
often used. Many software are available to facilitate the effort (Risk Cloud,
ProcessMap, etc)
• Severity is expressed as probability of fatality (0 to 1), or money lost
incurred or some other measures depending on the nature of the assessment
LIKELIHOOD
• Likelihood is the chance of an event to occur
• It is estimated based on historical data on failure frequency of individual
units or components.
• Eg: Failure data for gasket failure, pipe rupture, pump switch failure, etc.
have been surveyed and collected over the years and published.
• Methods are typically used to compute the overall likelihood of an event:
Fault-Tree Analysis (FTA)
Event-Tree Analysis (ETA)
• Likelihood is expressed in terms of frequency of occurrence (per year)
RISK ASSESSMENT
• Overall process of estimation the magnitude of risk and deciding
whether or not the risk is tolerable
Injury (head, body, etc.) RISK
RISK LIKELIHOOD CONSEQUENCES
Property damage
Loss of life
Violation to business license
Health disease (cancer,
asthma, etc.)
Fatality
Very Likely – Could happen frequently Major injuries (normally irreversible or
Likely – Could happen occasionally damage to health)
Unlikely – Could happen but only rarely Minor injuries (normally reversible injury or
High Unlikely – Could happen but damage requiring days off work)
EXAMPLE OF RISK probably never will Negligible injuries (first aid)
Manual
Confined Dropped
Handling
Space Object
Lifting/
TOP HSE Chemical
Rigging
RISK
Working at
Combustible Height
Hot work
Electrical Blasting
UNDERSTANDING RISK
Recognize risk
Assess
Mitigate risk
Recover
RISK CLASSIFICATION
Application of Risk Assessment
Prioritize safety action
programme
Rank and prioritize safety audit
findings
Evaluate benefit of accident
Intolerable – immediate action
prevention measures
Substantial
Prioritize expenditure
Moderate – action within 1 week
Relative ranking of various types
Tolerable
of risks
Trivial – action within 1 month or longer
TYPES OF RISK ASSESSMENT
Quantitative Qualitative
Scientific studies and measurements Semi-scientific or non-scientific
Comparison of results with limit values Judgement Decisions:
Professional and personal experiences /
biases
Code of Practices
Occupational hygiene, noise, structural NIL
design, ergonomic, etc.
Methods use: Methods use:
Event Tree Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
Fault Tree Checklist
Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA) What If
HAZID / HAZOP
PROS & CONS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
QUALITATIVE VS QUANTITATIVE
QUANTITATIVE
QUALITATIVE
Use numerical model to assess risk
Probability and consequence models
Decide on risk level using judgement,
Judgement, technical knowledge and
experience and technical knowledge
experience required
Extremely subjective
Subjectivity remains
Personal and individual variations
A good model reduces personal and
May not be “bought in to” by any
individual biases/variations
medium to large scale organization
Could be “bought in to” by any
medium to large scale company
TYPE OF RISK CONSEQUENCES
PUBLIC &
REACTION
ECONOMIC PERSONNEL ENVIRONMENT
Category I : Mild reaction
(nuisance)
Category II : Minor local Category I : Insignificant
Category I : Insignificant outcry (complaints) Category II : Temporary
Category I : < 1K Category III : Group
Category II : Minor short term damage
Category II : < 10K attendances complaints
Category III : Major Category III : Major
Category III : < 100K Category IV :
Category IV : Severe pollution
Category IV : < 1M Hospitalization & local
Category V : Fatality Category IV : Severe
Category V : > 1M media attention
Category VI : Multiple pollution
Category VI : Total Loss Category V : Serious injury
Fatalities Category V : Widespread
of local media attention damage
Category VI : Fatality/ Category VI : Catastrophic
government & media damage
attention
EFFECT ON PERSONNEL
Insignificant : No human injury expected or <3 days lost
time
Minor : Injury/illness, 3-28 or 56 days lost time,
full recovery expected
Major : Injury/illness, 28+ or 56+ days lost time,
or permanent slight incapacity
Severe : Permanent incapacitating injury/illness
PROBABILITY (FREQUENCY)
EXPOSURE TO HAZARDS
RATING/EXPERIENCES
Estimated in time (% for 24 hr per day)
1 in 10 (Frequent)
1 in 100 (Probable) <1% (very rare)
1 in 1000 (Occasional) 1% (rare)
1 in 10,000 (Remote) 25%
1 in 100,000 (Improbable) 50%
1 in 1,000,000 (Extremely Remote) 75%
100% (continuous)
HAZARD, RISK, PROBABILITY & SEVERITY
HAZARDS CONTROL
RISK ASSESSMENT RISK EVALUATION & ACCEPTANCE
Hazard identification Judgement about the acceptability
Assessment of probability of of risks and decision on measures
events
Implementation of safety
Assessment of severity of measures
events
Start
HAZARD CONTROL PROCEDURE
SAFETY REVIEW
System Definition
Hazard Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk NO
Analysis of options for
accepted? further risk minimization
YES
Safety
TYPES OF HAZARD
Chemical hazards (toxic, irritant, corrosive, carcinogenic)
Process hazards (temperature, pressure, corrosion)
Noise hazards (hearing damage)
Vibration hazards (numbness)
Dust hazards (lung & nasal blockage, explosion)
Fire hazards (burns, smokes, heat)
Explosion hazards (flying debris, sound blast, pressure)
Biological hazards (disease, mutation)
Illumination hazards (blindness)
Radiation hazards (organ damage, deformation, mutation)
Ecological hazards (harmful to plant and animal lives)
YOU CAN’T MITIGATE A HAZARD THAT YOU
DON’T KNOW !!
MANAGEMENT OF HAZARD
Identify the hazards and evaluate the risks
Document & communicate the information
Eliminate or reduce the hazards and risks
Control the hazards that remain in a safe manner
GROUP ASSIGNMENT
Discuss the components and example of the process of conducting risk
assessment and evaluation.
HIRARC – G1 Risk Assessment
Methods (probability & risk ranking) – G2
Fault tree – G3
Probability Theory and Methods
Event tree – G4
Quantitative risk analysis – G5
Risk Analysis
Layer of protection analysis – G6 Presentation 10 min
Q&A 5 min (each group)
Example Risk Matrix Definitions
(a) Consequence severity
C1 Minor No or minor injuries
C2 Moderate Moderate injuries (restricted work day)
C3 Major Serious injuries (lost work day)
C4 Catastrophic Fatalities or multiple serious injuries
(b) Event frequency
F1 Extremely unlikely >1 in 10,000 years Risk Ranking = Frequency x Consequence
F2 Very unlikely 1 in 1000 to 10,000 years
F3 Unlikely 1 in 100 to 1000 years
F4 Likely <1 in 100 years Higher
(c) Risk ranking Risk
R1 Acceptable Improvement opportunity
R2 Tolerable Recommendation optional, improvement opportunity F4 R1 R3 R4 R4
R3 High Recommendation required to reach R2 or better
R4 Very High Recommendation required to reach R2 or better F3 R1 R2 R3 R4
Frequency
F2 R1 R1 R2 R3
F1 R1 R1 R1 R2
C1 C2 C3 C4
Lower Consequence
Risk
*Frequency of the event is determine using Bow Tie diagram
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION, RISK ASSESSMENT &
RISK CONTROL (HIRARC)
• To identify all factors that may cause harm to employees and other (the
hazards)
• To consider what the chances are of that harm actually be falling
anyone in the circumstances of a particular case and the possible
severity that could come from it (the risk)
• To enable employers to plan, introduce and monitor preventive
measures to ensure that the risk are adequately controlled at all times
WHEN TO DO HIRARC?
• Where hazard appear to pose significant threat
• When uncertain whether existing controls are adequate
• Before implementing corrective or preventive measures
• By organization intending to continuously improve OSH
Management System
PROCESS OF HIRARC
Health hazards
Safety hazards
Environmental hazards
Conduct risk
assessment (analyze Decide if risk is
Classify work Identify hazard & estimate risk from tolerable and apply
activities each hazard) by control measures
calculating or
estimating
Geographical/physical area within/outside
premises
Stages in production/services process Severity of
Not too big (eg: building a car) Likelihood
hazard
Not too small (eg: fixing a nut) occurrence
Defined task (eg: loading, packing, mixing, fixing
the door
LIKELIHOOD OCCURRENCE
SEVERITY OF HAZARDS
HIRARC SHEET
RISK MATRIX
Source : HIRARC Guidelines by DOSH Malaysia
HIERARCHY OF RISK CONTROL
PROBABILITY THEORY
• Equipment failures or faults in a process occur as a result of a complex
interaction of the individual components
• With adequate data it can be shown that on average, the component fails
after a certain period of time
• Average failure rate is represented by 𝜇𝜇 with units of faults/time
• The probability that the component will not fail during time interval (0,𝑡𝑡).
Eq. 1 𝑅𝑅 𝑡𝑡 = 𝑒𝑒 −𝜇𝜇𝜇𝜇 - Poisson distribution
𝑅𝑅 is reliability
• Assume a constant failure rate 𝜇𝜇 in Eq. 1
• As 𝑡𝑡 → ∞, R = 0
• The speed at which this occurs depends on the value of the failure
rate 𝜇𝜇
• The higher the failure rate, the faster the reliability decreases
Failure Probability (unreliability)
Failure density function
Failure density function in terms of period of time
The time interval between two failures of the components is
called the mean time between failures (MTBF)
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PROCESS UNITS
Parallel structure (logical AND function)
Total Reliability
Series structure (logical OR function)
Overall Failure Probability
System composed of two components A and B
Failure probabilities are too small - negligible
PROBABILISTIC METHODS
• Begin with an initiating event and work toward the
top event
• Inductive approach – estimation of potential incident
EVENT TREES frequency
• Provide information on how failure can occur and the
probability of occurrence
• Begins with a well-defined accident, or top event,
and works backward toward the various scenarios
that can cause the accident
FAULT TREES • Deductive approach – aims at testing an existing
theory
• Identifying ways in which hazards can lead to
accidents
EVENT TREES
Steps for analysis:
1. Identify an initiating event of
interest
2. Identify the safety functions
designed to deal with the
initiating event
3. Construct the event tree
4. Describe the resulting accident
event sequence
The computational sequence across a
safety function in an event tree
FAULT TREES
Steps for analysis:
1. Define precisely the top event
2. Define the existing event
3. Define the un-allowed events
4. Define the physical bounds of
the process
5. Define the equipment
configuration
6. Define the level of resolution
LOGIC TRANSFER COMPONENTS USED IN A FAULT TREE
Flat tire example is pictured using
a Fault Tree logic diagram Advantages
Begins with a top event
To determine the minimal cut sets – increase
reliability of the system
Enables the application of computers
Disadvantages
Complicated process
Uncertainty failure modes to be considered
Assume failures are “hard” – not fail partially
Develop by different individuals, usually will
have different structure
RISK ANALYSIS
• Semi-quantitative tool for analyzing and
Method that identifies where operations,
assessing risk
engineering, or management systems can
• Simplified methods to characterize the
be modified to reduce risk
consequences and estimate the
Complexity of QRA depends on
frequencies
objectives of study and information
• The combined effects of the protection
available
layers and the consequences are then
QRA provide managers tools on evaluate
compared against some risk tolerance
overall risk of a process
criteria
QRA – Quantitative Risk LOPA - Layer of Protection
Analysis Analysis
Major steps of QRA study:
1. Defining the potential event sequences and
potential incidents
2. Evaluating the incident consequences
(modelling/software)
3. Estimating the potential incident frequencies
using event tree and fault trees
4. Estimating the incident impacts on people,
environment and property
5. Estimating risk by combining the impacts
and frequencies and recording the risk
using graph
Major steps of LOPA study:
1. Identify a single consequence
2. Identify an accident scenario and cause
associated with the consequence
3. Identify the initiating event for the scenario and
estimating the initiating event frequency
4. Identify the protection layers available for this
particular consequence and estimating the
probability of failure on demand for each
protection layer
5. Combining the initiating event frequency with
the probabilities of failure on demand for the
independent protection layers to estimate a
mitigated consequence frequency for the
initiating event
6. Plotting the consequence vs consequence
frequency to estimate risk
7. Evaluating risk for acceptability
END OF CHAPTER
