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Understanding Probability Basics

The document discusses probability concepts like sample space, outcomes, events, unions, intersections, and complements. It provides examples using dice rolls, coin tosses, and other experiments to illustrate these concepts. Key points covered include defining the sample space and events, calculating probabilities of individual events and unions/intersections of events, and the relationship between probabilities of events and their complements. Examples of mutually exclusive events where the probability of their intersection is 0 are also discussed.

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princesamba
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19 views11 pages

Understanding Probability Basics

The document discusses probability concepts like sample space, outcomes, events, unions, intersections, and complements. It provides examples using dice rolls, coin tosses, and other experiments to illustrate these concepts. Key points covered include defining the sample space and events, calculating probabilities of individual events and unions/intersections of events, and the relationship between probabilities of events and their complements. Examples of mutually exclusive events where the probability of their intersection is 0 are also discussed.

Uploaded by

princesamba
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

Dice
What are the outcomes? {1} , {2} , {3} , {4} , {5} , {6}
What is the sample space?
“Sample space is the collection of all outcomes” S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
What is an event? “An event is a subset of a sample space”
Eg: Suppose we bet that the dice outcome is an odd number
A = {1, 3, 5} Here, A is an example of an event
Eg: Suppose we bet that the dice outcome less than or equal to 4
B = {1, 2, 3, 4} Here, B is an example of an event

Eg: C = {1, 3, 5, 7} Is this an event? No!


{7} does not belong to sample space
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

Coin Toss
What are the outcomes? {H}, {T}
What is the sample space?
“Sample space is the collection of all outcomes” S = {H, T}
Examples of events:
A = {H} B = {H, T} C = {} D = {T}
All four above are events Even the empty set is considered event!!!
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

Two Coin Tosses


What are the outcomes? {HH} , {HT} , {TH} , {TT}
What is the sample space? S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Examples of events:
A = {HH, HT, TH} “Atleast one heads”
B = {HH, TT} “Both tosses are the same”
A and B above are events
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

Coin followed by dice


What is the sample space?

S= { (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6)
{
(T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)

Examples of events:
“Coin is heads”
A = {(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6)}
“Dice is 3”
B = {(H, 3), (T, 3)}
Set Operations Intersection Union Complement

Dice S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {1, 3, 5}
B = {1, 5, 6}

A ∩ B = {1, 5} = B ∩ A Outcomes that are in both A and B


A ∪ B = {1, 3, 5, 6}= B ∪ A Outcomes that are in A or B

A c = {2, 4, 6} “A complement”
Outcomes that are in S but not in A
B c = {2, 3, 4} “B complement”
Outcomes that are in S but not in B
Probability Coin Toss
S = {H, T}
1
P(H) =
2
1
P(T ) =
2
Probability Dice
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
3 c c 3 3
A = {2, 4, 6} P(A) = A = {1, 3, 5} P(A ) = =1−
6 6 6
2 4
c 2
B = {1, 2} P(B) = c
B = {3, 4, 5, 6} P(B ) = =1−
6 6 6
1
P(A ∩ B) = P({2}) =
6
4
P(A ∪ B) = P({1, 2, 4, 6}) =
6
Why can’t we say P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)?
{2} is common in both A and B
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
C = {1, 3, 5}
A ∩ C = {} A and C are “Mutually exclusive” or “Disjoint”
P(A ∩ C) = 0
Recap

Sample space
“Collection of all outcomes”
Event
“Any subset of the sample space”

Probability of Union
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
Probability of Complement
P(A c) = 1 − P(A)

Mutually exclusive (Disjoint)


A ∩ C = {}
P(A ∩ C) = 0
Case Study: Sachin
Case Study: Sachin
Probability of winning
184
P[W ] = = 0.511
184 + 176

Probability of century
46
P[C] = = 0.127
46 + 314

Probability of winning and century


30
P[W ∩ C] = = 0.083
360
Case Study: Sachin
Probability of winning
184 P[Win] = 0.511
P[W ] = = 0.511
184 + 176
P[Century] = 0.127
Probability of century
46
P[C] = = 0.127
46 + 314

Probability of winning and century


30
P[W ∩ C] = = 0.083
360

P[Win and Century] = 0.083

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