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OPEN Development of smart cold forging

die life cycle management system
based on real‑time forging load
monitoring
Young Ho Seo
Cold forging dies are manufactured through the shrink fit process to withstand high pressure loads,
but fatigue failure eventually occurs due to repeated compressive stresses. The life cycle until
fatigue failure was defined as the limit life, and attempts were made to predict the die life based
on finite element method. However, accurate prediction was impossible owing to uncontrollable
environmental variables. Consequently, it is impossible to clearly determine the die replacement cycle,
resulting in negative consequences such as poor quality, production delay, and cost increase. Various
environmental factors affecting the prediction of die life cycle result in the increase or decrease of the
forming load, which is an important variable that determines the die life cycle. In this study, a system
for monitoring load data generated from forging facilities was developed based on a piezo sensor. In
addition, the die life cycle was more accurately predicted by using the forming load data measured in
real time, and a die life management system that can determine the die replacement cycle was applied
to the automobile steering parts production line.

The manufacturing industry in modern society is facing various problems due to excessive increase in manufac-
turing costs, including material and labor costs, rapid demand fluctuations, excessive equipment investment, and
surplus production r­ esources1. In particular, as the carbon emission regulations are s­ trengthened2, the required
specifications of the final product are changing in various ways, along with the improvement and innovation of
the manufacturing ­process3. To improve the fuel efficiency of automobiles, it is required to reduce the weight of
all ­parts4; simultaneously, non-environmental factors must be excluded from the manufacturing process. Conse-
quently, the manufacturing industry was faced with the challenge of simultaneously achieving eco-friendliness,
high quality, and low cost. To overcome this situation, efforts are being made to improve the efficiency of the
manufacturing process by making various attempts, such as the establishment of a low-cost production structure
and the expansion of the automated process. This flow has led to the wave of the fourth industrial revolution
that started in G­ ermany5 and is accelerating a paradigm shift in the manufacturing industry. Innovation in the
manufacturing sector refers to hyper-connection centered on process data and includes analysis and utilization
of big data, Internet of Things (IoT), addictive manufacturing, simulation, and horizontal and vertical integra-
tion ­systems6.
In this study, as part of the paradigm shift for manufacturing innovation, data from the manufacturing process
of automobile steering parts were collected. Based on this, the life span of the forging die was predicted more
accurately. Furthermore, it was attempted to maximize the efficiency in the manufacturing process by monitoring
the die replacement cycle by the operator. The ball stud in Fig. 1 is connected to the outer ball joint (OBJ), one
of the steering systems of automobiles, and plays a role in securing mobility in various directions.

Literature review
Ball studs are manufactured through a multi-stage cold forging process, in which bulk materials are pressed
several times in a closed space to form a final product. Forging operations consist of forming the component
by means of plastic deformation of raw material, compressed between a punch and ­die11. In particular, the
cold forging process can secure high strength and high shape precision by deforming the material at room
­temperature12. In this process, the die is repeatedly subjected to a high compressive load, and the die material
reaches the fatigue limit and becomes d ­ amaged13. This leads to an increase in process c­ osts14, e.g., decrease in

Automotive Materials and Components R&D Group, KITECH, Cheomdan‑venturero 108, Gwangju 61007, Korea.
email: [email protected]

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Figure 1.  Ball stud parts of a steering s­ ystem7–10.

Material C Mn Mo Si Ni Cr
34CrMo4 0.33–0.38 060–0.90 0.15–0.30 0.15–0.35 0.25 max 0.90–1.20

Table 1.  Chemical composition [wt%] of 34CrMo4.

productivity and increase in the defect rate due to die fracture and replacement. Studies have been conducted
to predict the lifespan of cold forging dies and reduce process costs. The most common way to predict the life
of a cold forging die is to use FEM. However, these methods do not quantitatively predict the limiting life, but
remain in a qualitative a­ nalysis13,15. On the other hand, there are studies conducted from the viewpoint that
the breakage of the forging die is caused by fatigue c­ racking14,16,17. Tanrıkulu calculated the fatigue limit of the
material of the cold forging die and presented an empirical formula to predict the limit life of the die based on
the stress value acting on the die through numerical ­simulation18. In addition, similar studies for predicting the
life of cold forging dies are ­continuing19–23.
However, in the manufacturing site, the lifespan of the die is still managed based on the experience of the
operator, and the breakage of the die occurs suddenly because various working environment variables cannot
be considered. There are two main reasons why various research results cannot be applied to the field. The first
is that the stress prediction of the die based on simulations does not match the fatigue failure of the die that
occurs in the field. Predictions based on finite element method (FEM) is an ideal result that does not take into
account various variables such as die alignment, material size deviation, and working temperature. There is a
sense of disparity between the results of FEM and the field. It is almost impossible to control all the variables of
the manufacturing site. However, all factors result in forging forming load values. Theoretically, the method of
calculating the forging load has already been ­studied24,25. However, in this study, forging equipment load data
were used for a more practical study. By increasing the FEM result accuracy, it is possible to improve the die
limit life prediction accuracy using this.
Second, as the simulation result of the forging process is essential in predicting the die life, the intervention
of an expert is inevitable, and it is impossible to quickly respond to the process change. Therefore, research to
improve the accuracy of the existing die life prediction method and system development research should be
conducted to enable field use by non-experts.
A method to increase the prediction accuracy of die life through big data analysis by converting the variables
of the working environment into data can be a solution, but the research efficiency is lowered owing to the large
amount of data. There is a linking factor between the working environment variables in the cold forging process
and the stress of the die, called the forming load. Therefore, in this study, the forming load data were measured
in real time at the facility, and the stress acting on the die was predicted using real-time data. Consequently, it
was possible to calculate the limiting life of the die with high accuracy. In addition, the data collection, process-
ing, analysis, and monitoring procedures were integrated and systemized so that on-site workers could easily
monitor the mold replacement cycle.

Limiting life estimation of die

Material property for part and die. The material of the ball stud parts was 34CrMo4 (Table 1) with a
diameter of 22 mm, and spheroidizing heat treatment was applied to enhance hardenability. To obtain simula-
tion properties, tensile and compression specimens were processed, as shown in Fig. 2, in accordance with
ASTM E8 (sub size) s­tandard26. A tensile test was performed at a speed of 10 mm/min, and a compression

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Figure 2.  Tensile and compression test specimens with detailed dimension.

Material Yield stress (MPa) Tensile stress (MPa) Uinform elogation Total elogation
34CrMo4 420 685 0.18 0.36

Table 2.  Mechanical properties of 34CrMo4.

Figure 3.  True stress–strain curve of 34CrMo4.

test was performed at a speed of 2 mm/min up to a compression rate of 80%. As a result of the tensile test, the
mechanical properties were obtained, as shown in Table 2. The engineering stress and strain obtained from the
tensile and compression tests were converted to true stress and strain by the following equations.
 l
dl
ǫtrue = = ln(1 + ǫeng ) (1)
l0 l

σtrue = σeng (1 + ǫeng ) (2)

The tensile and compression true stress–true strain curves of the 34CrMo4 material were derived, as shown
in Fig. 3. 34CrMo4 is an exclusive material for cold heading, and as a result of the tensile test, the uniform
elongation section is very small, so it cannot sufficiently simulate work hardening in compression deformation.
On the other hand, in the compression test, the true stress–strain curve of a fairly wide section can be obtained
because the material does not break to a compression ratio of 80%. Therefore, a compression curve was used for
the simulation properties of the mulit-stage cold forging process.
The die used in the cold forging process of the ball stud parts is generally composed of a core, reinforcing ring,
and case, and the materials used are different. WC–Co alloy is used for the core, where breakage of die occurs
owing to the concentration of stress in the forging process. WC exhibits high hardness and abrasion resistance,
and Co is related to t­ oughness27. In general, the mechanical properties of the WC–Co alloy are determined
by the Co content, and it is manufactured via a sintering process of press-molding while being heated to an
appropriate temperature. The material of the core die used in the manufacturing process of the ball stud parts
was a WC–Co alloy with a Co content of 20%, and its mechanical properties are shown in Table 3. WC–Co alloy

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Material WC (wt%) Cobalt (wt%) Grain size Hardness (HRA)

WC–Co 80 20 4.0–6.6 92.0

Table 3.  Mechanical properties of WC–Co.

Figure 4.  Fatigue experimental specimen with detailed dimension.

Figure 5.  S–N curve of WC–Co material.

has high compressive strength but is vulnerable to tensile strength, so the concentration of tensile stress is sup-
pressed by the reinforcing ring. However, when the cyclic tensile stress applied to the die material by high-speed
cyclic loading exceeds a certain strength, fatigue failure occurs. Therefore, to define the limiting life of the cold
forging die, it is necessary to acquire the fatigue properties of the mold material. Fatigue test specimens were
manufactured through sintering, grinding, and polishing processes, as shown in Fig. 4, in accordance with the
ASTM E 466 ­standard28.
A radius of curvature of 3 mm was reflected to prevent stress concentration in the part in contact with the
jig of the testing machine. Further, the radius of curvature of the area corresponding to the gage length was
12.7 mm, which was designed so that stress concentration could occur effectively. Using Instron 8801 equipment,
the S–N diagram of the die material was derived, as shown in Fig. 5, for a stress ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of
10 Hz. Starting with the load condition corresponding to low life, the life curve progressed to the level at which
the fatigue limit was secured until the flattened section.

Simulation result of ball stud manufacturing process with die structure. The manufacturing pro-
cess of the ball stud parts comprised a total of six stages with forming apparatus, as shown in Fig. 6. Different
molds for each of the 6 processes are placed in one die block. After one stroke, the material automatically transfer
to the next process. Accurate prediction of the tensile stress in the weak point of the core die at which tensile
stress is repeatedly applied should be preceded. For this, a finite element simulation was performed on the multi-

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Figure 6.  Multi-stage cold forging process design with forming apparatus.

Figure 7.  FE modeling of ball stud forming procedure.

stage cold forging process using FORGE, a finite element analysis program. As shown in Fig. 7, all die structures
at each stage were modeled, and a fully coupled method was applied to improve the accuracy of die stress predic-
tion. Figure 8 shows the detailed die modeling for ball stud forming procedure. WC–Co, SKD-61, and SKD-51/
SKD-11 were used for the core die (WC), reinforcement ring (H13), and case (D2/M2) material of each stage,
respectively. The physical property values ​​provided by the analysis program were used as shown in Table 4. For
the analysis properties of 34CrMo4, the compression diagram shown in Fig. 3 was used. The amount of shrink
fit of the reinforcing ring was applied differently at each stage within the range of 0.1–0.14%. In addition, a fric-
tion coefficient of 0.08 between the material and core die was applied, and a coefficient of friction of 0.12 was
applied to the rest of the contact regions. The movement speed of the punch was the same at 150 mm/s for all
stages. The maximum principal stress acting on the die due to the pressurization of the material was confirmed
through the fully coupled analysis. Figure 9 shows the point where the maximum principal stress in each stage
acts. This analysis process is then used to derive the history of the maximum principal stress value according to
the forming load in each process. The maximum principal stress value shows a constant trend according to the
change of the forming load. The time it takes to confirm the results of a single analysis case is 24 h. Since it is not
possible to follow the production cycle at the manufacturing site, it is simplified to the model for calculating the
maximum principal stress based on the trend.

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Figure 8.  Detailed die modeling for ball stud forming procedure.

Material Young’s modulus (GPa) Density (kg/m3) Ultimate tensile strength (MPa)
WC 350 13,300 270
H13 200 7850 1990
D2 203 7860 2200
M2 207 8140 3250

Table 4.  Mechanic analytical properties of die materials.

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Figure 9.  Max. principal stress acting on the core die of all stage.

Calculation of limit die life. The maximum principal stress acting on the core die mainly occurs at the
edge of the die, and this value cannot be directly substituted on the y-axis in Fig. 5. This is because the result
value of the finite element analysis corresponds to a stress concentration dependent on the element and shape
functions. Both the finite element analysis result and stress corresponding to the y-axis in Fig. 5 should be con-
verted into nominal stress values. The stress concentration factor (kt) value cab be calculated based on the shape
factor (corner curvature radius and depth) of the corner where breakage is expected to ­occur29. The stress con-
centration coefficient is a numerical value indicating the degree of stress concentration distributed in notches,
holes, and grooves. By applying the stress concentration factor to the finite element analysis result value, it is
possible to convert the maximum principal stress to nominal stress.
σanalysis = Max. Principal stress/kt (3)
Similarly, the fatigue stress concentration factor (kf ) is applied to the y-axis stress value in Fig. 5 to convert it
into nominal stress. As shown in Fig. 4, since there is a notch in the center of the specimen, the stress values are
not nominal stresses. The fatigue stress concentration factor is a numerical value indicating the degree of stress
concentration due to the notch in the fatigue load state.
A fatigue test specimen without a notch was additionally prepared. Under the same fatigue test conditions,
kf is calculated as the ratio of fatigue strength without notch and fatigue strength with notch.
kf = σwithout_notch /σwith_notch (4)
Then, by dividing the stress amplitude in Fig. 5 by kf, it is converted to the nominal fatigue stress.
σfatigue = stress amplitude/kf (5)
It is converted into nominal stress (σanalysis) by substituting the maximum principal stress, which is the analysis
result, into Eq. (3). Substituting this into the nominal fatigue stress (σfatigue) of Eq. (5), it becomes the fatigue
strength that can be substituted into the S–N curve.
stress amplitude_FEM = kf ∗ σanalysis (6)
Quantitative evaluation of the die life was performed by predicting the life corresponding to the fatigue stress.
The equation was derived by fitting the S–N diagram in Origin, a commercial S/W. By substituting the value of
Eq. (6) into the fitted equation, it is possible to derive the cycle corresponding to the lifespan. The results are

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Process Predictive data (Cycle) Actual data (Cycle) Error rate (%)
1st 67,540 84,300 − 20
2nd 35,958 42,210 − 16
3rd 40,823 49,112 − 17
4th 102,796 87,099 18
5th 38,385 42,150 −9
6th 70,067 66,087 6

Table 5.  Quantitative evaluation result of die life cycle.

Figure 10.  Piezo sensor installation location.

shown together with the actual die stress in Table 5. Comparison of the predicted data with the actual die life in
the field reveals an error range of ± 20%, which is attributed to the fact that working environment variables are
not taken into account in the die life prediction process. In the actual working environment, the forming load
changes flexibly owing to die alignment, dispersion of material properties, and changes in friction conditions,
which means that the maximum principal stress acting on the die changes according to the working environ-
ment. However, in the process of quantitatively predicting the die life, the maximum principal stress acting
on the die is assumed to be an ideally fixed value, so this error is indicated. Another problem is that it inhibits
applications to the field because it is difficult for non-experts to use it as the simulation of the forming process
must be performed to predict the die life.

Die replacement cycle monitoring system based on actual forming load

Real‑time forming load measurement. Owing to the environmental variables of the ball stud cold forg-
ing process, load variation caused by the pressurization of the upper and lower dies occurs. Accordingly, the
maximum principal stress acting on the die also shows deviation. By measuring the forming load in real time,
the die life prediction error can be suppressed. A piezo sensor was used to measure the pressing force of the
cold forging upper and lower dies in real time. The most accurate way to measure the forming load is to install
a load cell between dies. However, the load cell cannot withstand the forming load and affects the dimensional
accuracy of the part. In addition, as it must be installed in an enclosed space, realizing a wired connection for
signal processing is impossible. Therefore, as shown in Fig. 10, a piezo sensor was installed in the punch block
of the forging former. More precisely, the piezo sensor was installed in the narrow space between the wedge and
the backplate where the applied force was transmitted and can be measured. The piezoelectric sensor generates
an electrical signal (G: gauge factor) by the piezoelectric e­ ffect30, which is defined as the relationship between the
strain (ε) generated by the applied stress and the resistance rate of change (ΔR/R).
G = (�R/R)/(�L/L) = �R/ǫR (7)
As shown in Eq. (7), the electrical signal generated from the piezo sensor is defined as the rate of change. The
electrical signal was integrated to convert it into an actual load graph, and the result is shown in Fig. 11. Finally,
the electrical signal on the y-axis in Fig. 11 must be converted into a unit of load. To this end, a fixing jig was made
to mount the calibration load cell on the forging former, and the actual load was measured. Real-time load data
measurement was possible through repeated comparison of the maximum load value and maximum electrical
signal value. In this process, the dedicated calibration S/W provided by the load cell vendor was used, and peri-
odic load diagram calibration was performed on site. A system that could monitor the forming load in real time
was built at the ball stud production site, and it was implemented in the form of a program, as shown in Fig. 12.

Maximum principal stress prediction algorithm. In order for the quantitative die life prediction tech-
nology to be universally applied to the field, the maximum principal stress must also be calculated in real time
based on real-time forming load data. In particular, it is impossible to perform process simulation in real time
because the simulation must be carried out at high speed in consideration of the short production cycle (1ea/s)

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Figure 11.  Conversion of sensor signal into load graph form.

of the ball stud parts. A simple mathematical model for predicting the maximum principal stress acting on a
cold forging die is a realistic alternative. Figure 13 shows the stress history at the point where the maximum
principal stress occurs in the lower core die of stage 1. The maximum principal stress maintains a constant value
of 0 within the range of the constant forming load (Ft: threshold load) and increases linearly and proportionally
over the range of the load. This trend was also observed in the upper and lower core dies of stages 1–6. Therefore,
a mathematical model capable of predicting the maximum principal stress, as shown in Eq. (8), was presented,
and the ­Cth and ­Cslope constants were derived by considering the maximum principal stress history of the upper
and lower dies in stages 1–6.
σmax = Cth + Cslope Freal (8)
Freal is shown in Fig. 14 and denotes the maximum forming load value from stage 1 to stage 6 measured in real
time. Its conversion into the maximum principal stress history using Eq. (8) is shown in Fig. 15. Such complex
variable load histories can be replaced with simplified equivalent load histories; however, in this study, actual
data were used for the real-time implementation and simplification of field application algorithms.

Die life prediction based on linear cumulative damage. Miner’s linear cumulative damage hypoth-
esis was derived under the assumption that the fracture of the structure due to fatigue occurs when the work
­ aterial31. Using the maximum principle stress
caused by countless fatigue loads reaches the critical value of the m
data and the S–N diagram of the material, it is possible to calculate the cumulative damage factor (CDF), as in
Eq. (9)@32.
ni 
DFi =
N
, CDF = DFi (9)
i

Here, ni is the number of cycles according to each stress level, Ni is the allowable number of cycles according
to the stress criterion obtained from the fatigue curve, and DFi is defined by the relationship of ni/Ni. As shown

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Figure 12.  Load diagram conversion process and monitoring system.

in Fig. 16, the cycle in which the value of CDF reaches 1 by cumulative calculation of DF, was defined as the
limiting life of the forging die. Table 6 shows the life limit for each process. It can be seen that the error range
was reduced to ± 7% compared to the die life prediction results in Table 5, assuming the maximum principal
stress value to be a single constant.

Die life managing system. The system is configured as shown in Fig. 17 so that the operator can monitor
the remaining life cycle of the die currently in use. The forging machine has an embedded piezo sensor, and a
module to store the signal generated by the sensor is installed. In addition, a data processing server for calculat-
ing the sensor signal as the remaining life cycle of the die is configured. The remaining life cycle of the die can
be calculated as in Eq. (10).
(1 − CDF) × 100[%] (10)

Conclusions
In this study, a method to more efficiently manage the die life in the multi-stage cold forging process was pre-
sented. Based on pressurized load data collected in real time, a more accurate prediction of die life was possible.
Furthermore, to increase the utilization in the field, the intervention of experts was completely excluded, and
application to the automobile parts manufacturing site was realized. The detailed study contents are summarized
as follows.

1. The S–N diagram of the die material was obtained to predict the lifespan of the cold forging die. The maxi-
mum principal stress value was predicted through the coupling of the forging process simulation and die
analysis. It was possible to predict the die life by substituting the maximum principal stress value into the
S–N diagram, but the accuracy was low with an error rate range of ± 20%. In addition, there was a limit to
field application owing to the high professional difficulty of the die life prediction process.

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Figure 13.  Predictive model based on maximum principle stress history.

Figure 14.  Real time maximum forming load history.

2. To solve this problem, an infrastructure for real-time monitoring of the forming loads from stages 1–6 of
cold forging process was established. In addition, a data sensing–collection–analysis–processing linkage
system was installed at the manufacturing site so that the forming load data could be used to predict the life
of the die. To exclude expert intervention in this process, a mathematical model capable of predicting the
maximum principal stress based on the forming load data was presented.

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Figure 15.  Real time maximum principal stress history.

Figure 16.  Die life cycle prediction based on cumulative damage factor.

Process Predictive data (Cycle) Actual data (Cycle) Error rate (%)
1st 86,269 84,300 2.3
2nd 45,075 42,210 6.8
3rd 47,675 49,112 − 2.9
4th 88,413 87,099 1.5
5th 41,300 42,150 − 2.0
6th 65,967 66,087 − 0.18

Table 6.  Quantitative evaluation result based on real-time forming load data.

3. As a result of predicting the die life more accurately based on the linear cumulative damage hypothesis, the
error range was reduced from a maximum of ± 20% to ± 7%.
4. With the establishment of a system capable of monitoring the remaining life of the die, the operator in the
field can intuitively determine the time to change the die, and it is possible to improve the efficiency of the
manufacturing process.

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Figure 17.  Die life managing system.

Received: 29 December 2021; Accepted: 27 July 2022

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Acknowledgements
This study has been conducted with the support of the Korea Institute of Industrial Technology as "Development
of intelligent root technology with add-on modules (KITECH EO-22-0005)".

Author contributions
Y.H.S.: Conceptualization, methodology, software, validation, formal analysis, investigation, resources, data
curation, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing, visualization, supervision.

Competing interests
The author declares no competing interests.

Additional information
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Y.H.S.
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