Barrons October 302023
Barrons October 302023
The long
bear market
in bonds has
pummeled
portfolios,
but boosted
yields. How
to invest as
bonds blossom
once again.
PAGES 16,
> 18, 19
63142
C O NT EN TS 10.30.23 VOL.CIII NO.44
COVER STORY: P. 13 P. 33
INVESTING IN BONDS
Trader: Stocks Slip
P. 16
On the Cusp of a
Takeaways From Tech Earnings Into a Correction
Tech Trader: Like other Big Tech executives, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg will need to The S&P 500 still looks richly
Bond Bull Market ramp up spending to build out the company’s artificial-intelligence capabilities. IBM, priced, even after a 10% drop from
The stage is set for strong returns meanwhile, is having early success with the technology. By ERIC J. SAVITZ its summer highs. Here are the
across the yield curve. Best bets. pockets that look attractive.
By DAREN FONDA By JACOB SONENSHINE
P. 18 P. 36
High U.S. Debt Is No International: U.S. EV
Reason to Avoid Bonds Makers Face a Threat
By AMEY STONE China plans to restrict sales of a
key component that it controls.
P. 19 By CRAIG MELLOW
P. 15
P. 63
Casino Stocks Can
Shake Their Bad Luck Retirement: Using an
Regionals such as Caesars and HSA as a Savings Tool
Boyd Gaming are more recession- Health savings accounts are
resistant than many realize. similar to 401(k)s, but better.
By TERESA RIVAS By ELIZABETH O’BRIEN
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
P. 21 P. 62
In Memory of Byron New House Speaker,
Wien Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the 2023 Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, Calif. Same Old Problem
We admired the Wall Street Other Voices: Mike Johnson will
strategist, famous for his annual struggle to overcome the intransi-
list of 10 surprises. gence that stymied his predecessor.
By ANDREW BARY By CASEY BURGAT
BIG MONE Y POLL: THE PROS WEIGH IN • PAGE 2 2
P. 7 P. 28
P. 22
Up & Down Wall Street: Funds: The Perils of
VOL. CIII NO. 4 4 OCTOBER 30, 2023 $5.00
Fed, inflation, the economy, and a breeding ground for scrappy, all- P. 29 7:30 p.m. ET, and Saturdays and
more. Favorite investments: high- star value investors. Sundays at 9:30 a.m. and 10:30
quality bonds and value stocks.
Illustration by
Nicholas Konrad
By ANDY SERWER
Income: 5 Consumer a.m. This week, where to invest in
By NICHOLAS JASINSKI Staples Worth Owning stocks from Richard Saperstein of
© 2023 Dow Jones & Company,
Inc. All Rights Reserved. P. 11 By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS Treasury Partners. Plus, insights
P. 30 on the forces driving megadeals in
Streetwise: Danger Can
the diversification of a mutual fund and the tracking of an index with transparency and liquidity.
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
NextEra Energy
Symbol
NEE
Weight
13.36%
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
Southern SO 8.13%
Duke Energy DUK 7.84%
Sempra SRE 4.93%
American Electric Power AEP 4.47%
Exelon EXC 4.33%
Dominion Energy D 4.31%
Constellation Energy CEG 4.04%
*Components and weightings as
of 9/30/23. Please see website for PG&E PCG 3.89%
daily updates. Holdings subject
Xcel Energy XEL 3.64%
to change.
Aninvestorshouldconsiderinvestmentobjectives,risks,chargesandexpensescarefullybeforeinvesting.Toobtainaprospectus,whichcontainsthisandotherinformation,call1-866-SECTOR-ETFor
visit www.sectorspdrs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
The S&P 500, SPDRs®, and Select Sector SPDRs® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. and have been licensed for use. The stocks included in each Select Sector Index were selected by the compilation agent.
Their composition and weighting can be expected to differ to that in any similar indexes that are published by S&P. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S.
stock market. The index is heavily weighted toward stocks with large market capitalizations and represents approximately two-thirds of the total market value of all domestic common stocks. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The S&P 500 Index figures do not reflect any fees, expenses or taxes. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply. ETFs are considered transparent because their portfolio holdings are disclosed daily. Liquidity is characterized by a high level
of trading activity.
Select Sector SPDRs are subject to risks similar to those of stocks, including those regarding short-selling and margin account maintenance. All ETFs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Funds focusing on a single sector
generally experience greater volatility. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust.
4 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
I N D EX
Our index lists significant companies mentioned in stories and columns, For Customer Service, call 1 (800) 544-0422, or go to
plus Research Reports, and Corrections & Amplifications. The references customercenter.barrons.com. For reprints of articles,
are to the first page of the item in which the company is mentioned. call 1 (800) 843-0008, or go to djreprints.com.
A Advanced Micro Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 J Johnson & Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,34 M Marathon Digital Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 O Oneok . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Algonquin Power & Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Meta Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,13,30,33,39 ON Semiconductor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Alphabet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,13,35,39 Microsoft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,13,26,35 Osterweis Strategic Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Amazon.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,39 K Kenvue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Morgan Stanley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
American Airlines Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Kinder Morgan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Annaly Capital Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Apple . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,13,26 N Nano Dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 P Park Strategic Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Ares Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 L Lamb Weston Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 NextEra Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Penn Entertainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Arista Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Norsk Hydro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Pfizer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,27
Arm Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Nvidia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,26 Pimco Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Pimco Low Duration Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Procter & Gamble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,34
B Blackrock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,20
BlackRock Flexible Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
BlackRock High Yield Bond Portfolio . . . . . . 20 R RiverPark Strategic Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities . 18 Roche Holding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Boyd Gaming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Roivant Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners . . . . . . . . . 27 Rupert Murdoch Executive Chairman, News Corp
Robert Thomson CEO, News Corp Almar Latour CEO, Dow Jones
S Sanofi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
C Caesars Entertainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND GENERAL MANAGER Dan Shar Snap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chevron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Southwest Gas Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Clorox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 EDITOR IN CHIEF David Cho SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust . . . . . . . 26
Coca-Cola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Starwood Property Trust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Coinbase Global . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 EXECUTIVE EDITOR Bob Rose SENIOR MANAGING EDITOR Lauren R. Rublin Stellantis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
St. Joe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
Endeavor Group Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 SENIOR WRITERS Bill Alpert, Megan Cassella, Lauren Foster, Nicholas Jasinski, Tae Kim, Textainer Group Holdings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Enphase Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Megan Leonhardt, Joe Light, Elizabeth O’Brien, Al Root, Avi Salzman
Jacob Adelman, Janet H. Cho, Adam Clark, Emily Dattilo, Jack Denton, Catherine Dunn,
REPORTERS
U UnitedHealth Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Carleton English, Sabrina Escobar, Callum Keown, Evie Liu, Shaina Mishkin, Josh Nathan-Kazis,
F Flutter Entertainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Utilities Select Sector SPDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Ford Motor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,39 Angela Palumbo, Teresa Rivas, Connor Smith, Jacob Sonenshine, Brian Swint, Karishma Vanjani, Andrew Welsch
Foxconn Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
STORY EDITORS Ed Lin, Erin McCarthy, Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Stacy Ozol,
Frontier Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,38
Ross Snel, Neal Templin, J.J. Thompson V Vanguard Consumer Staples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
COPY DESK Michael J. Burlingham, Robert Teitelman
Vanguard High-Yield Corporate . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Vanguard Total Bond Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
G General Motors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 IDEAS EDITOR Matt Peterson Verizon Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Goodyear Tire & Rubber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 V.F. Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
DEPUTY DIGITAL MANAGING EDITOR Zoe Szathmary
SENIOR AUDIO MANAGER Mette Lützhøft DIGITAL PRODUCERS Robert Cushing, Nick Devor, Clare McKeen
H Haleon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Chelsea Schiff
HEAD OF VISUALS
W Walt Disney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Hartford Municipal Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . 20 Williams Cos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Health Care Select Sector SPDR . . . . . . . . . . 34 ART DIRECTORS Lynne Carty, Shayanne Gal, Nick Hallam, Sue Ng Wynn Resorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Hess . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY Sarina Finkelstein PHOTO EDITORS Alis Atwell, Halie Chavez, Nicole Silver
Urban
regeneration?
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6 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
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of trust and
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October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 7
Investors Nurture
pleton in 1996 when it had $16 billion Lowenstein, author of Buffett: The
under management. Making of an American Capitalist.
Mutual Series became a veritable There’s also J. Dennis Jean-Jacques,
rookery for scrappy, all-star value CIO of Ocean Park Investments and
Generational Talent
investors, including Seth Klarman, author of The Five Keys to Value Invest-
who has been portfolio manager of the ing; Rob Friedman, Mutual Series’
$24 billion hedge fund Baupost since former CIO; and David Marcus, who
its inception and has a stellar long- runs Price’s family office.
term track record. Klarman also wrote “It was a unique environment,”
a highly regarded volume on value says Friedman, 64, currently a student
B
investing, Margin of Safety. at Harvard Divinity School. “Michael
usiness incubators which produced literally dozens of Then there’s Eagle Capital Partners’ was a brilliant entrepreneur who
and accelerators are so-called Tiger Cubs, including Steve Meryl Witmer, a Berkshire Hathaway knew how to build a business and
all the rage these days, Mandel (Lone Pine), John Griffin (Blue board member and long-standing manage investments. He didn’t care if
particularly in Silicon Ridge Capital), Andreas Halvorsen member of the Barron’s Roundtable— you’d work there for a year or 10
Valley. Outfits like Y (Viking Global), Lee Ainslie (Maverick she wrote a remembrance of Price for years. If you had a good idea and
Combinator look to Capital), as well as Bill Hwang, who’s Barron’s when he died last year—as wanted to pursue it, he would listen.”
goose start-ups, in awaiting trial on federal charges of well as her former co-manager at Em- “There was a richness to the envi-
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
part by providing shared resources and BY ANDY fraud and racketeering in the collapse erald Partners, Don Parker. Also on ronment in the sense that there weren’t
collaborative brainstorming. SERWER of Archegos Capital Management. the roster: Jeff Altman, founder and many value-oriented places with that
What they’re trying to do, of course, But while the Tiger Cubs garner chief investment officer of the $5 bil- variety of things going on,” adds Klar-
is catch lightning in a bottle, as hap- headlines, the alumni of Michael Price’s lion Owl Creek Asset Management man. “The thing you learned from Mi-
pened in the 1970s at Xerox Palo Alto mutual fund company, Mutual Series, and Anne Gudefin, who went on to chael is the deep curiosity, pulling
Research Center, or PARC, where the are just as impressive. Price was an icon- become a portfolio manager at Pimco threads, that you never have all the
personal computer, laser printer, and oclastic, hard-core value investor, who and was featured on the cover of answers, and that you should never get
computer mouse were conceived—leav- ran his firm hands-on and practiced SmartMoney as one of “The World’s tired of asking more and more and
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
ing it to others, like Apple’s Steve Jobs, tough love. His forte was distressed situ- Greatest Investors” in July 2009. more questions. The firm obviously
to commercialize them. PARC also thrived for good reason.”
gestated a surfeit of tech stars like Eric “We all had to find Michael, there
Schmidt, John Warnock, Charles Simo- was no recruitment—and no training
nyi, and John Seely Brown. program either,” says Lowenstein. “Mi-
Beyond Silicon Valley, General Elec- chael would cut right to the chase. He
tric famously germinated all manner of could focus right away on what’s im-
non-GE CEOs. portant. ‘This is what we need to know,
And on Wall Street, the “old” Leh- this is what we need to figure out.’ He
man Brothers (before it was sold to could see through complexity. The
American Express in 1984) was a cra- more complex a situation was, the less
dle of investment bankers, including competition there was, the better.”
Blackstone co-founders Pete Peterson Adds Marcus: “Nobody had an
and Steve Schwarzman and Evercore office. There was just a big room and
founder Roger Altman and co-CEO Michael sat in the middle so you could
Frank O’Brien/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Ralph Schlosstein. When Robert Rubin hear everybody and learn from them.”
ran the mid-1980s Goldman Sachs “Michael used the Socratic method,”
risk-arbitrage desk, you would have says Witmer. “We would be talking
found a Murderer’s Row of Dan Och, about some situation and he would
Tom Steyer, Eddie Lampert, and Rich- ask, ‘What’s the one thing you want to
ard Perry. And Drexel Burnham Lam- know?’ And then he asked, ‘What’s the
bert, after going bankrupt in 1990, next thing?’ He was a very good
spawned a diaspora of bankers, trad- teacher. You had to come to your own
ers, and analysts, many of whom re- conclusions. He also had a moral
main active today. stance against management ripping off
Perhaps the highest-profile breeding shareholders. That really bothered
ground in investing is Julian Robert- him and he would fight that.
son’s Tiger Management hedge fund, Fidelity fund manager Peter Lynch in 1998: “A lot of freedom, a lot of responsibility, and a great research department.” “In fluid situations, he was an abso-
8 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
lute master,” she adds. “He just had this But have there been any bond success sto-
term records—Will Danoff [37 years], Steve ing since David Swensen, the university’s
Wymer [34 years], and Joel Tillinghast [37 endowment visionary, was running things
years]—they’re analysts, too.” for the Eli’s then. The next wave arrived in
Some, of course, do leave, going back to 2011, when the Massachusetts Institute of
Gerald Tsai, who founded the Manhattan Technology sold $750 million of bonds at
Fund reportedly in 1965 and became a bil- 5.6%. After that came Ohio State, the Uni-
lionaire. Jeffrey Vinik went on to hedge versity of Southern California, and the
fund fame and fortune along with fellow California Institute of Technology; the
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
1 (888) 493-8631 Fidelity fund manager Michael Gordon, and trend apparently appeals to both brainiac
now owns the National Hockey League’s and football-first institutions. New Eng-
GLOBALXETFS.COM
Tampa Bay Lightning and a piece of Major land small colleges such as Bowdoin, Wes-
League Baseball’s Boston Red Sox. leyan, and Tufts also joined the century-
While I had both Klarman and Lynch bond club as rates continued to decline.
on the line, I had to ask them about stocks. “There are about 15 to 20 schools with
® First Klarman: “The market is scary and century bonds,” says Jessica Wood, senior
Beyond Ordinary ETFs vulnerable. The geopolitical strains seem director and sector lead for education at
heightened rather clearly. I think in some S&P Global. “The majority tend to be
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. International ways the magnitude of the disaster of the higher rated. Locking in an interest rate
investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in Fed holding rates at zero for a decade is for 100 years can be a positive. On the flip
currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles, now much more clear.” side, many university management teams
or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets As for Lynch, he says, “We’ve been in an tell us they would never issue a century
involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased incredible bear market for two years,” ex- bond, because that’s putting into place a
volatility and lower trading volume. Narrowly focused investments may cept for basically 10 big stocks. Stocks are potential problem for a future manage-
be subject to higher volatility. There are additional risks associated with almost selling for less than cash. Look at ment team to deal with.”
investing in Uranium and the Uranium mining industry. URA is non-diversified. the Russell 2000.” Is he bullish on the Is there one absolute winner here? Could
Russell 2000? “Absolutely,” he says. “I be the University of Virginia, which sold
Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges love it when stocks go down.” $300 million of Centuries in 2019 for 3.23%,
and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be Despite their differences, Fidelity and the lowest coupon of issues rated by S&P,
found in the Fund’s full or summary prospectus, which are available at
Mutual Shares share a sad note. Both and 432 basis points (a basis point is one-
globalxetfs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
firms’ patriarchs, Fidelity’s Ned Johnson hundredth of one percentage point) better
Shares of ETFs are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and and Price, passed away in March of 2022. than Disney did 26 years earlier. Could be
the sharpies down in Charlottesville nailed
A
are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage
commissions will reduce returns. Distributed by SEI Investments spike in interest rates invariably it. With any luck they’ll be chanting “Wa-
Distribution Co. produces high-profile busts in the Hoo-Wa!” 96 years from now. B
bond market—bank blowups
from last spring being Exhibit A. email: [email protected]
October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 9
Before investing, consider the funds’ ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate SPDR® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial
in market value and may trade at prices above or below the Services LLC (S&P), a division of S&P Global, and has been
investment objectives, risks, charges ETFs net asset value. ETF shares may not readily trade in all
market conditions. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses
licensed for use by State Street Corporation. No financial
product offered by State Street or its affiliates is sponsored,
and expenses. To obtain a prospectus will reduce returns. endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P.
or summary prospectus, which This communication is not intended to be an investment ALPS Distributors, Inc. (fund distributor); State Street Global
recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC (marketing agent).
contains this and other information, upon as such.
call 1.866.787.2257 or visit SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust is a unit investment trust, listed on
www.ssga.com. Read it carefully. NYSE Arca, Inc.
International investments are subject to risks, such as increased volatility, currency and political risks,
and may lose value. Statistics based on security selection ratios (considered vs. selected) from our two
largest international equity portfolios for the year ended March 31, 2023. Federated Securities Corp.
BARRON’S
October 30, 2023
October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 11
ST R E E T W I S E
The 17% yield on mortgage real estate investment
trust Annaly Capital Management isn’t as attrac-
tive as it appears. Here’s what could go wrong.
Is This Dividend
and some key differences. Both types mortgage securities, had pummeled
of REITs must pay the bulk of their the book values of securities portfo-
income as dividends to minimize cor- lios. Lending spreads for mortgage-
porate taxes. Mortgage REITs typically backed securities were surprisingly
Payer a Prince—or a
lend money to developers, both com- healthy—around 1.6 percentage
mercial and residential, or buy mort- points, versus a long-term average of
gage securities, including ones that are closer to a point. The bright side of
backed by government agencies. They the Fed getting out of the mortgage-
Poisonous Toad?
make money from a lending spread— buying business is that industry re-
for example, by borrowing shorter turns could become less prone to
than six months to buy securities that arbitrary booms and busts. UBS pre-
mature in two to five years. And they dicted a 10% rise in portfolio book
use more leverage than equity values within a year, and a 30% re-
REITs—sometimes two to three times turn for shares.
T
as much as a percentage of assets. That call was, as they say, early.
here’s a large mort- parking lot huts, and strangers with Most risks for mortgage REITs are The 30-year mortgage rate has
gage investment chemicals being the first to see your related to interest-rate swings and climbed nearly another half point
company with more shots.) Kodak slashed its payment by skews. Low rates can set off a refi- since then, to about 7.8%. Mortgage
than 25 years in the nearly three-quarters, sending shares nancing rush, leaving portfolio man- REITs have tumbled. As this column
business called An- 15% lower right away. Years later, there agers to reinvest at less attractive noted recently, mortgage rates have
naly Capital Man- was a bankruptcy and restructuring. yields. A jump in rates can squeeze more or less returned to their long-
agement, whose But mortgages aren’t film. Also, lending spreads. An inverted yield term average, not shot to an unusual
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dividend yield is 17%. That’s nearly BY JACK Annaly (ticker: NLY) already cut its curve, where short rates are higher high. But what’s to say they can’t over-
twice as high as the average return for HOUGH payment early this year to 65 cents a than long ones, like recently, can be shoot from here?
the stock market. It’s more than four share each quarter from 88 cents. And particularly punishing. More broadly, J.P. Morgan predicts more volatility
times what retirement planners say the share price has already fallen by mortgage REITs also sometimes issue in the near term but sees opportunity.
you can safely spend from a portfolio. nearly half over three years. UBS up- new shares to expand, which can di- “We believe Resi MREITs offer a fa-
It’s a jackpot with a ticker symbol—if graded the stock to Buy last month, lute existing shares. vorable, asymmetrical risk/reward
only the yield could be trusted. when it was $21. Now it’s $15. If you Dividends for mortgage REITs are profile,” the bank wrote this past
The problem is that a dividend that liked it then, as the saying goes, you’ll more of a slide whistle than a steady week in reference to residential mort-
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
big on a stock is like splashy colors on love it now. J.P. Morgan seems to. “Buy drumbeat. Annaly has cut payments 16 gage REITs, as opposed to commercial
a rainforest frog. It’s nature’s way of the dip,” it wrote of mortgage invest- times in as many years. Also, industry ones. “Income from midteens divi-
telling you that this thing could be ment companies in general and An- returns generally stink. Over 20 years dend yields should damp near-term
secreting enough toxin to kill 200 naly in particular this past week. through this past June, mortgage risk as investors wait for TBV appre-
monkeys, so look but don’t lick. Un- Meanwhile, Edward Jones says that REITs saw average annual price drops ciation/multiple expansion when QT
less, that is, you’re a trained herpetol- most individual investors should of 9.6%, and total returns including abates.” TBV is tangible book value, or
ogist who can tell which bright frogs avoid mortgage REITs, period. dividends of 1.2%, according to Edward what securities are worth. QT is quan-
are merely masquerading as poison- Here, then, is a look at what could Jones. Equity REITs experienced aver- titative tightening, or securities sales
ous ones. Or, I suppose, you could be go wrong. Or right. But mostly, wrong. age price gains of 4.1% and total re- by the Fed.
an animal with an evolved immunity; Annaly, which declined to com- turns of 8.6% during the same period. Sooner or later, some bold soul is
South America’s fire-bellied snake is ment for this article, is a real estate So what’s to like? UBS argued going to time this call correctly. But
said to be the only natural predator of investment trust, or REIT, with simi- back on Sep. 18 that the damage was for long-term holders, I’m with Ed-
the golden poison dart frog. Come to larities to the equity REITs that buy already done. Rising rates, combined ward Jones—don’t lick this toad (para-
think of it, I guess you could also be a physical property and collect rents— with the Federal Reserve selling off phrasing).
second golden poison dart frog, in One last note on a risk particular to
which case sure, lick each other, if Annaly—that of an awkward mispro-
that’s what you two are into. nunciation the first time saying the
That metaphor got away from me BARRONS.COM/PODCASTS name aloud. It comes from an Irish
somewhere between the monkeys and territory where a co-founder traced
the snake, but you see my point.
Big dividends can foretell trouble.
Just over 20 years ago, the former
Barron’s Streetwise his roots. Before discussing with a
friend the risks or merits of taking a
stake in the company, please note that
Eastman Kodak had a plump 6.7% In a weekly podcast by Barron’s, columnist Jack Hough looks the stress is on the first syllable,
yield and had paid a dividend every at the companies, people, and trends you should be watching. which—careful here—gets a short
year since 1902. But of course, film This is Wall Street like you’ve never heard before. Subscribe vowel sound, like the name Anne.
was losing ground to digital cameras. to Barron’s Streetwise on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, You’re welcome. B
(For younger readers, taking pictures or your favorite listening app.
used to involve plasticky spools, tiny email [email protected]
12 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
RE V IE W & PREV IEW 32,417.59 476.02 Sign up for the Review &
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Why Crypto
The Haven Theory deal with Ford, which Stellantis and hike interest rates by a quarter of a
Bitcoin and smaller crypto tokens General Motors said they would percentage point at its last meeting of
began to rally roughly around the
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Is Rallying
time the Middle East erupted. developing PC chips using Arm tech-
Percent change in crypto price nology, a threat to Intel. Microsoft beat
Bitcoin Cardano on cloud earnings; Alphabet struggled Thursday 11/2
Polygon Ethereum with slowing cloud revenues; Meta
40%
Platforms more than doubled profits. Apple reports quarterly results. Four
Bitcoin rallied this past week by more than 14%, of the so-called Magnificent Seven big
briefly topping $35,000 on Tuesday, its highest Deals. Chevron said it was buying tech companies released earnings this
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
level since May 2022, then drifted down to roughly 20 Hess for $53 billion, all in stock… past week and on average fell 1% the
$34,000. Still, Bitcoin was up some 30% in two Roche announced it was acquiring next trading day, dragging the tech-
weeks. 0
immunology company Televant Hold- heavy Nasdaq Composite down 2.6%
The rally was driven by hopes that the Securi- ings from Roivant Sciences and for the week.
ties and Exchange Commission will approve the Pfizer for $7.1 billion. Roivant was
first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. But that -20 started by GOP presidential candidate
may not be the only catalyst. “As the broader stock Oct. 1 12 24 Vivek Ramaswamy…Jana Partners Friday 11/3
market has struggled, Bitcoin has benefited and Sources: CoinDesk (Bitcoin, Polygon); Kraken called for the sale of Frontier Com-
appreciated in value,” says James Butterfill, head (Ethereum, Cardano) munications...Shipper Textainer The BLS releases the jobs report for
of research at digital-asset investment manager Group accepted a $2.1 billion going- October. Consensus estimate is for the
CoinShares. He notes ETF optimism but adds that Follow the Leader private offer from Stonepeak. economy to have added 175,000 jobs,
Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Coinbase Global has tended to mirror after an increase of 336,000 in Sep-
has faded while its relation to gold prices has in- Bitcoin, albeit with more volatility, Milestones. Byron Wien, a longtime tember. The unemployment rate is
creased, a sign traders see Bitcoin as a haven asset. because it requires a broader strategist at Morgan Stanley, Pequot expected to remain unchanged at a
Traders flocked to gold as conflict in the Middle acceptance of crypto among investors. Capital, and Blackstone, died at 90. historically low level of 3.8%.
East erupted. While proponents long dubbed Bit- Coinbase Global
coin “digital gold,” it hasn’t always performed as a $85
haven asset. But that may be changing. “In an anal-
ysis from 2015 onward, Bitcoin has responded posi- THE NUMBERS
tively to increased geopolitical risk,” says Butterfill. 80
Meanwhile, Coinbase Global fell 5% for the
week amid a wider tech selloff. Coinbase is a Bitcoin 52% $40 21% $1 M
T ECH T RADER
After an earnings beat, Microsoft is threatening
Apple’s title as the world’s most valuable
company—the gap is down to about $115 billion.
T
echnology stocks cloud business was seeing the impact isn’t just bigger than Google Cloud, blanket on the optimism when she told
slumped into cor- of “customer optimization efforts,” it’s also now growing faster. analysts that ad spending softened in
rection territory which is to say some IT execs think After its stock outperformed on the the beginning of the fourth quarter,
this past week, their cloud bills are still too high. week, Microsoft is now threatening correlating with Hamas’ attack on Is-
after a wave of Alphabet’s cloud business is barely Apple’s (AAPL) title as the world’s rael. She notes that a similar pattern
poorly received more than a tenth of the company’s most valuable company—the gap is unfolded at the start of the Ukraine
earnings reports total revenue, and just about 1% of down to about $115 billion. Microsoft war. Snap (SNAP) said something sim-
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from some of the world’s largest com- BY ERIC J. operating income. Given the better- shares have outperformed Apple ilar on its earnings call, noting that
panies. On Wednesday and Thursday, SAVITZ than-expected performance from shares by nearly 10 percentage points some brand-oriented ad campaigns
the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.1%, the Google search and YouTube, some this year. paused when war broke out in the
tech-heavy index’s worst two-day bulls think the market overreacted. Cloud leader Amazon Web Services Middle East.
stretch of the year. The index has But here’s the issue: The Street has is growing more slowly than both of The biggest third-quarter ad win
fallen 12% since July. been thinking that Google would le- its smaller rivals. AWS sales increased came from an advertising upstart:
Results from Alphabet (ticker: verage its prowess in AI software to 12.3% in the quarter to $23.1 billion, Amazon’s ad sales were up 26%, to
GOOGL) and Meta Platforms boost its share of the cloud market. about in line with Wall Street esti- $12.1 billion. That’s more than 10
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
(META) drew the most investor scru- Google has unveiled a flurry of AI mates. That’s no disaster, but it’s times the size of Snap’s total business,
tiny. Both companies topped expecta- tools and services in recent months, hardly a blowout. and more than 50% bigger than You-
tions, but the results led to fresh con- including the Bard chatbot, which you Still, Amazon (AMZN) investors Tube’s ad business.
cerns about cloud and ad spending. can now use to search not just the web found reason to be optimistic: CEO
Later in the week, Amazon.com but also your own documents and Jassy said on the company’s earnings AI is a two-sided coin: For Micro-
CEO Andy Jassy stanched the bleed- emails. In fact, Google had been call that AWS received some large or- soft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon,
ing with some enthusiastic comments viewed as having deeper expertise in ders late in the quarter that will show generative AI is a high-stakes, no-limit
about the outlook for artificial intelli- AI than rival Amazon Web Services. up in fourth-quarter results. That poker game that requires not just capi-
gence, but the message was clear: (More on AWS in a moment.) comment gave Amazon shares a big tal but also labor—in particular, costly
Investors’ zeal for Big Tech has faded. As a result, expectations for Google boost on Friday, and seemed to cheer coders. Meta finished its September
Here are some key takeaways from Cloud were high heading into the up tech investors more generally. quarter with head count down 24%, as
this past week’s tech earnings: quarter, and the business failed to “Companies have moved more part of its “year of efficiency” push; its
deliver. Worse, Alphabet had the mis- slowly in an uncertain economy in operating margin in the quarter was
Mixed weather for the cloud: Al- fortune of reporting results within 2023 to complete deals,” Jassy said on 40%, up from 20% a year earlier.
phabet was the biggest decliner
among the tech megacaps on the
week, falling more than 10%, despite
reporting revenue and profit that
topped Wall Street estimates. Inves-
tors focused on softer-than-expected For Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and
performance from Google Cloud,
which saw revenue increase 22% to Amazon, generative AI is a high-stakes,
Angel Garcia/Bloomberg
WHERE
spending and ramp up hiring in 2024.
Meta sees 2024 capital spending of
$30 billion to $35 billion, up roughly
15% from this year’s level. That’s a lot
OPPORTUNITY
(ANET). The provider of networking
gear counts on Meta and Microsoft for
50% of sales. Arista share fell 8%
Thursday, trimming its valuation by
Whatever the obstacles, CME Group provides nearly $5 billion.
Looking beyond the cloud, there
the tools that global market participants need were some AI winners this past week.
A few months ago, IBM (IBM)
to manage risk and capture opportunities. UNCERTAINTY launched WatsonX, an effort to help
With 24-hour access to futures, options, cash large companies with AI initiatives.
IBM’s earnings report edged estimates,
and OTC products across all major asset but the big news came when CEO
Arvind Krishna disclosed the company
classes, you can drive your trading strategy had bookings in the “low hundreds of
forward with confidence and precision. millions of dollars” for AI-related proj-
ects in the September quarter. That
suggests an annual run-rate of about $1
VISIT CMEGROUP.COM/OPPORTUNITY billion—not too shabby for a service
that only launched in July. IBM shares
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4 Casino Stocks
$1 billion share-repurchase target.
Boyd’s assets span 10 states, including
Illinois and Louisiana, and the com-
pany has a 5% stake in Flutter Enter-
For Gambling’s
tainment’s (PDYPY) FanDuel, the
U.S.’s leading sports betting operator.
The stock, meanwhile, trades at less
than nine times 12-month forward
earnings after dropping 12% on
Bright Future
Wednesday. That multiple is well be-
low its five-year average of 16. Truist
Securities analyst Barry Jonas has an
$83 price target on Boyd shares, up
more than 50% from current levels.
Penn Entertainment
The odds are getting better for investors in casino Penn Entertainment (PENN) has
stocks, especially regionals like Boyd and Caesars. had a difficult year. Its deal for Barstool
Sports, which was completed in Febru-
ary, was undone in August, when Penn
sold the media company back to
BY TERESA RIVAS “Las Vegas gross gaming revenue is Recession resis- Here are four attractive casino founder Dave Portnoy for a dollar.
T
tant? The main table
more susceptible to recessionary peri- gaming pit at Cae- stocks. The stock has dropped 38% in 2023.
he house always ods than regional GGR,” wrote David sars Palace Hotel & It now looks cheap enough to roll
wins, but casino Bain in a B. Riley Securities note earlier Casino in Las Vegas.
Caesars Entertainment the dice on. The stock changes hands
stocks have been this month. “A relatively short-lived, Caesars stock got dinged by a recent for some 15 times forward earnings,
on a losing streak undramatic economic softness is un- security breach, but Wells Fargo ana- half of its five-year average. Wayman’s
over the past two likely to negatively impact current lyst Daniel Politzer expects minimal Memcaj calls Penn “deeply underval-
months, falling 15%. GGR trends to a great degree.” impact on operations. Politzer, who ued” at current levels, considering that
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Now it may be time Regional casinos aren’t as dependent added the shares to his firm’s tactical it—like Boyd—has been delivering posi-
to bet on a casino comeback—in Las on the revival of conventions and group ideas list after the selloff, notes that tive free cash flow, unlike some bigger
Vegas and beyond. travel that drive Las Vegas. At the same Caesars is working to pay off the $8.8 casinos. He also likes Penn’s licensing
It might seem a strange time to favor time, they’re benefiting from the main- billion of debt that came with its July deal with Walt Disney’s (DIS) ESPN,
an industry predicated on throwing stream adoption of gambling, brought merger with Eldorado Resorts. Politzer struck after unloading Barstool. Under
your money away. After the pandemic, on by the easing of laws and the calls the company a “deleveraging eq- terms of the deal, Penn is rebranding
Americans, flush with cash, rushed growth of online betting. “The gaming uity that should become a free-cash- its online and in-person sportsbook as
back to casinos. But these days they’re industry is in a better place today than flow machine over time.” ESPN BET. That could be what Penn
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thinking twice about betting, as infla- it was pre-Covid,” says J.P. Morgan Caesars’ most recent quarter thought it was getting with Barstool:
tion means spending more on paper analyst Estelle Weingrod. showed solid trends both in Nevada a partnership with a powerful brand.
towels and pickles than on poker. An In all, the stocks look cheap, even and at regional casinos in New Orleans, “It’s a show-me story, but ESPN is
economic slowdown would be another relative to where they were trading Atlantic City, and other locales. Addi- so much larger in reach and scale,”
reason to save money. Disappointing before the pandemic. “[The U.S.] con- tionally, its online gaming division fi- Memcaj says.
earnings from Boyd Gaming (ticker: tinues to be the most exciting online nally turned a profit, compared with
BYD), released on Tuesday night, gaming opportunity, given the size of a more than half-billion dollar loss a Wynn Resorts
would seem to drive that point home. the potential total addressable market year ago. “Caesars is a controversial Some of the giants of the Las Vegas
Yet the odds are improving for at maturity coupled with the potential name…but everything [CEO] Tom Reeg Strip are also worth a look. Wynn
investors in casino stocks, especially for sound profitability,” Weingrod has done has worked,” says Sandy Vil- Resorts (WYNN) gets more business
when it comes to regionals such as writes. “Based on this, we believe that lere, partner and portfolio manager at from Las Vegas and Boston these days
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) and the industry should be trading above wealth management firm Villere. than from its high-profile Macau oper-
Boyd. Gross gaming revenue, or GGR— its pre-Covid average multiple.” ations. In the most recent quarter, re-
how much customers bet minus their Boyd Gaming ported in August, Wynn’s Las Vegas
winnings—is still strong, even if it’s off Boyd is very profitable—though not revenue hit $578 million, beating the
its 2021-22 highs. Know When to Hold ‘Em enough for the investors when it re- $560 million analysts were predicting.
What’s more, thanks to loyal cus- Casino stocks’ hot streak has cooled, but they still look attractive. leased its earnings. The company’s In June, Wynn resumed paying a divi-
tomer bases, regional casinos are more margins, based on gross profits as well dend for the first time since early 2020.
recession-resistant than many realize. Recent YTD Fwd 2022 2023E Div. as earnings before interest, taxes, de- In the second quarter, Ebitdar—a
Company / Ticker Price Change P/E EPS EPS Yield
A mild economic downturn, which preciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, common metric in hospitality that adds
many strategists are predicting, Caesars $41.66 0.1% 17.6 -$4.19 $4.31 None outpace peers as a result of strict ex- rent to Ebitda—exceeded consensus
George Rose/Getty Images
Entertainment / CZR
wouldn’t present much of a headwind pense controls and loyal players at its expectations at all three of its major
for the industry. Even a full-on reces- Boyd Gaming / BYD 61.03 11.9 9.1 6.07 6.42 1.1% properties. “Boyd appears to be able to divisions. The stock trades about 20
sion could prove manageable: While Penn Entertainment / 20.80 -30.0 15.9 1.29 3.81 None do a lot with less,” says Frank Memcaj, times 12-month forward earnings, its
regionals did take their lumps during PENN founder of Wayman Value Investing. cheapest level since its lows in March
the recession of 2008-09, they bucked Wynn Resorts / Boyd’s strong performance and 2020. And if Macau picks up, as J.P.
the weakness that Las Vegas experi- WYNN 91.42 10.9 20.4 -4.47 3.07 1.1% balance sheet allow it to be generous Morgan expects, well, that would just
enced during the dot-com bust. E=estimate Sources: Bloomberg; FactSet with shareholders, as evidenced by its be icing on the casino cake. B
16 BARRON’S October 30, 2023 October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 17
6.1% when its tax advantage is in- Bonds Break Down dragging down returns again this year,
cluded. (Although junk bonds average Rising rates have pressured bonds—and tanked long Treasuries—while stocks it’s enough to make investors think
INVESTING IN BONDS 9%, their “spread” over Treasuries is have pushed higher. twice about whether bonds are even
fairly narrow, indicating that they worth owning—particularly with
It’s Time to
Higher yields can solve a lot of prob- 0 Stickier inflation could arise from
lems. If inflation were still running at forces like spending on decarboniza-
9%, the income generated by bonds −20 tion, reshoring of manufacturing, and
would be of scant use, as higher prices increased military spending, according
Buy Bonds
would wipe out purchasing power; −40 to Duke University finance professor
even 5% inflation would make it a and Research Affiliates director Camp-
wash. Inflation, though, isn’t the worry −60 bell Harvey. At the same time, Federal
it was just a short while ago. Jan. April July Oct. Jan. April July Oct. Jan. April July Oct. deficits continue to grow, while interest
Treasury inflation-protected securi- 2021 2022 2023 on the debt could soon hit $1 trillion a
ties, or TIPS, maturing in both five and Source: Bloomberg year. That would make it the largest
10 years are pricing in inflation of 2.5%, source of federal spending after Social
Treasuries have had one of their worst implying that expectations are well Security and health benefits—and
three-year stretches on record. Why anchored. At those levels, Treasuries There’s also a case for significant Investors certainly have reason to be harder to manage.
the market could get better from here. are generating yields of 2.5% after in- gains with far less downside risk, wary. Even during the 1970s, long-term The backdrop is complicated
flation, the first time “real yields” have based on “bond math.” The 30-year Treasuries never strung together a enough that active managers may be in
been meaningfully positive in over a Treasuries would gain nearly 13% over losing streak like the current one. By a good spot to beat the indexes. Bond
decade. 12 months with a 0.5-point drop in some measures, the last comparable returns are typically based on two fac-
BY DAREN FONDA “The real rate is so attractive that yields, based on current levels, but the rout occurred in the late 1780s, when tors: duration and credit risks. The
you don’t need to venture very far out bonds would lose less than 3%, includ- George Washington was inaugurated major indexes—and the funds that
on the curve and your yield will work ing interest, if rates rose by a half- in white silk stockings, steel-hilted track them—are dominated by Trea-
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for you,” says Rick Rieder, chief invest- point. sword by his side. Back then, the fledg- suries and other government-backed
ment officer of global fixed income at The upside case may be one reason ling U.S. government was debating debt. In the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate
BlackRock (ticker: BLK). investors seem so bullish on long- whether to assume state debts, and Bond Index, Treasuries and agency-
A yield cushion, especially in corpo- bonds: The iShares 20+ Year Trea- how to pay for them, a situation that backed mortgage securities constitute
R
rate credit, is now a bulwark against sury Bond exchange-traded fund could have left bonds issued by govern- nearly 71% of the market, swamping
arely in bond bear, recently closed out his bets rates rising even higher. At over 6%, (TLT) has raked in $11.8 billion of ment entities worthless. Such was the the impact of corporate credit on
American against Treasuries. a basket of investment-grade corporate net inflows over the past six months, existential crisis that investors faced. returns.
history has it What’s more, continued geopolitical bonds maturing in one to five years according to VettaFi. Today, of course, the Treasury can That makes the major indexes es-
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
been this bad unrest or signs of a recession could could withstand a 3.25 percentage point It isn’t just long-term bonds that simply print money or issue more debt sentially bets on “duration,” or interest-
for bonds— restore the core market—government- increase in yields and still generate a would benefit. Once the Fed does to make payments. But a combination rate sensitivity (since government-
and rarely has backed debt and high-grade corporate positive one-year return, according to pause, the stage could be set for strong of the Fed’s interest-rate increases and backed debt isn’t considered to have
it been such bonds—to its position as a haven, a role Parametric, an asset manager owned returns across the curve, according to fears of entrenched inflation have credit risk). For instance, the iShares
an opportune it had abdicated in recent years. Since by Morgan Stanley (MS). J.P. Morgan’s fixed-income strategists. caused bond prices to tumble. Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
time to buy. starting yields are higher, there is more There’s even a chance that bonds Over the past eight Fed tightening cy- Worse still, the losses have come in (AGG) has a duration of nearly six
The bond cushion against losses, including inter- get back to acting as shock absorbers, cles, bond yields were down by a full tandem with a drop in stocks, causing years with a yield of 4.8%. If rates rose
rout has been est income. And with rates stabilizing, dampening volatility in a portfolio. percentage point, on average, after the the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks by a percentage point over a 12-month
brutal. Supposedly ultrasafe Treasuries bonds could start to play a positive role That hasn’t been the case recently, as final hike. That happened “irrespective and bonds to lose 16% in 2022, its period, the ETF’s total return would be
are on track to lose money for three once again. bond and stock prices have tended to of whether a recession or soft landing weakest showing since the global fi- negative 0.5%.
consecutive years, declining 42% over “It’s been a rough journey to a much move in the same direction—lower—as followed,” they wrote in a recent note. nancial crisis of 2008-09. With bonds The high weighting in government
that period. Other bonds, whether better environment,” says Dan Ivascyn, the Fed raised interest rates. That posi-
mortgage-backed securities or high- chief investment officer at bond firm tive correlation between the two asset
quality corporates, have also taken a Pimco, which manages $1.74 trillion classes turned bonds from ballast to Bullish on Bonds
beating, leaving investors with losses in assets. “We’re much more optimistic wrecking balls in portfolios with a mix These funds offer ways to play a bond rally or stay put in cash.
from what are supposed to provide at this point going forward.” of 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, 3-Year 30-Day Expense
ballast in a portfolio. The bull case starts with the fact especially as the volatility of the 30- Fund / Ticker Return Assets SEC Yield Ratio Comment
But consider what may come next: that today’s entry point is the best in year Treasury rose to levels consistent Pimco Low Duration 0.84% $8.5 billion 5.3% 0.90% High-quality short-term fund with low rate sensitivty
the end of the bond bear market. While years. Yields across the Treasury mar- with the S&P 500 index, according to Income / PFIAX
long-term yields have spiked lately— ket, at about 5%, are the highest since BlackRock’s Rieder. BlackRock Strategic Income -0.33 35.1 4.9 0.99 Wide-ranging fund including government, corporate, and foreign bonds
pushing the 10-year Treasury to 4.9% 2007. Investment-grade corporate Bonds, though, could offset stock Opportunities / BASIX
from 4% in August—the Federal Re- bonds pay an average of 6.3%, a yield losses again if investors stopped worry- Osterweis Strategic Income / 2.85 4.7 7.2 0.86 High-yield fund with emphasis on quality and low duration
serve may be nearing the end of its not seen since mid-2009. For someone ing about rising rates and started fret- OSTIX
campaign of interest-rate increases. in the 24% tax bracket, a 30-year mu- ting about a recession. In that case, Vanguard Federal Money 1.86 268.7 5.3 0.11 Low-cost money-market fund for holding cash
Traders see only a 25% chance of an- nicipal with a triple-A rating yields equities may be the first to take a hit, Market / VMFXX
other rate hike this year, possibly at the while Treasury prices would get a BlackRock Flexible N/A $162 million 5.9 0.40 Recently launched multisector ETF with low rate sensitivity
Fed’s meeting in December. Hedge fund bump if the Fed pivoted from fighting Income / BINC
manager Bill Ackman, a prominent ILLUSTRATIONS BY NICHOLAS KONRAD inflation to supporting the economy. Note: Three-year returns are annualized; N/A=not applicable Sources: Morningstar, company reports
18 BARRON’S October 30, 2023 October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 19
debt has crushed net asset values, or panies, which yield more than 6%, same quarter in 2020. Rocketing Higher after an auction. But while foreign isn’t able to repay its debt, but because
share prices, for broad-market index and AAA-rated collateralized loan A recent jump in the yield on the Growth in the federal government's governments are purchasing fewer political dysfunction likely will make
funds. The AGG ETF now trades be- obligations, or CLOs, which yield INVESTING IN BONDS 10-year Treasury note is one measure interest expenditures has accelerated Treasuries, other buyers, such as it harder to find a long-term solution
low its share price of 15 years ago. The 6.5% and have scant credit risk or of the worsening sentiment around due to pandemic-era spending and pension funds, have stepped in. to escalating debt levels.
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
(BND) is also below its net asset value
from October 2008, though both ETFs
rate sensitivity. One knock on the
fund: its high expense ratio of 0.99%.
The BlackRock Flexible Income
What Rising Levels of the U.S. debt load, says Noah Wise, a
senior portfolio manager for the Plus
Fixed Income team at Allspring
higher interest rates.
$1,200 billion Q3 2023
$981 billion
“There is demand at these higher
yields,” Barney says.
If geopolitical tensions worsen,
When the fiscal health of the U.S.
starts to become a worry globally, a
major tell will be a decline in the U.S.
have eked out positive annualized
returns through interest income over
those periods.
ETF (BINC) is a tactical high-yield
fund with a goal of lower volatility
than Strategic Income. It’s much
Government Debt Mean Global Investments. Yields rose from
4% to 5% in the past three months,
partly because of concerns about more
1,000
800
more investors likely will flee to the
safety of U.S. Treasuries. Pershing
Square’s Bill Ackman, whose vocal
dollar, which has risen against other
currencies since the summer.
A crisis isn’t inevitable. “As long as
Indexes tend to track the entire mar-
ket with no thought of macro factors.
Active managers can toggle between
cheaper at a 0.4% annual cost. The
ETF, which yields 5.9% and launched
in May, is up 0.3% since inception.
for the Bond Market Treasury issuance.
So, do rising yields mean investors
shouldn’t buy bonds? Far from it.
600
400
worries about U.S. fiscal health helped
to drive down bond prices, said he
recently covered his short positions
debt is productive and used for invest-
ments that can grow more than the
cost of debt, then we’ll end at a good
duration and credit risk, while also Another mutual fund to consider “Valuation, and psychological and due to concerns about global risk. His place,” says Barney of the longer-term
200
reducing exposure to each. “The way is Osterweis Strategic Income technical factors, all are operating in disclosure sparked a mini rally in outlook.
indexes are set up, they’re structurally (OSTIX). Paying out 7.2%, it com- Rising levels of national debt are scary, but higher concert and are all in the same direc-
2010 '15
Note: Seasonally-adjusted annual rate
'20
Treasuries this past week. Near term, Vanguard puts the case
going to have a lot of rate risk,” says bines high yield and low duration. Its interest rates make government bonds your friend tion right now,” Wise says. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. debt is still safer than almost for bonds succinctly. In a recent re-
Michael Contopoulos, fixed-income 150 holdings consist mainly of junk Despite concerns about the size of any other income-producing security port, the firm wrote, “Bond investors
strategist at Richard Bernstein Advi- bonds and similar securities with an the debt, longer-term bonds are at- on the planet, and that gives it an im- are likely to be better off because of—
sors. “Active today is what you need, effective duration of 2.3 years. Top tractive. “Before, we weren’t getting losses, while similarly sized decreases portant role in portfolios, especially not despite—the recent bond selloff.”
but it has to be truly active where the holdings include debt issued by BY AMEY STONE
compensated for interest-rate expo- would lead to larger gains. (Bond during market shocks. Fitch down- Federal debt levels might be scary,
portfolio changes in a meaningful American Airlines Group (AAL), sure,” he says. “That has changed.” prices move inversely to yields.) graded its U.S. credit rating by one but higher rates make government
way.” Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Bond yields might rise even further, Yes, rising rates could dent eco- notch in August, not because the U.S. bonds your friend, not your enemy. B
A standout among mutual funds— and Starwood Property Trust but the risk to investment portfolios is nomic growth, which would hurt
without much rate sensitivity—is (STWD). “asymmetric,” says Brian Barney, who stocks but also cool inflation. That is
I
Pimco Low Duration Income Co-manager Craig Manchuck says nvestors have finally awakened as recently as 2019. Given the rise in oversees management and trading of precisely the outcome the Federal
(PFIAX). The fund invests mainly he’s avoiding low-rated debt issued to the size of the national debt interest rates, the nation’s interest institutional bond portfolios for Para- Reserve has sought to achieve by
in core sectors like government debt, by companies owned by private-eq- and the speed with which it’s expense is also snowballing—to an metric Portfolio Associates. In other raising short-term interest rates and
mortgages, and investment-grade uity firms. Instead, he’s focusing on growing. Total debt is approach- annualized $981 billion in this year’s words, further increases in long-term reducing the bonds it holds on its
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
corporates—averaging an A+ credit higher-quality BB-rated or BBB-rated ing $34 trillion, up from $22 trillion third quarter from $509 billion in the rates would lead to small investment balance sheet, through a process
rating, according to Morningstar—and bonds maturing in one to two years. known as quantitative tightening.
it sticks with short-term debt, keeping “Coupons are getting higher and dol- When inflation falls further, long-
its duration at just 2.2 years. lar prices lower,” he says. Cash in the term interest rates likely will fall,
That profile helped the fund hold up fund is also helping to lift returns, he creating gains for bond investors.
reasonably well amid rising rates. The notes, since it now yields about 5%. Barney has been explaining this INVESTING IN BONDS
fund is up 2.6% this year and 0.8% Perhaps the biggest competition scenario lately to clients asking about
returning much more than the broader Retail money-market funds yield an debt. He makes a few additional
market. Over the past decade, the fund average 4.9%, while Vanguard Fed- points that he hopes will reassure
B
Gold rating from Morningstar, is an- there’s a geopolitical shock or the Washington. ond index funds are Some losses are inevitable in a
other alternative. Aiming for above- Fed cuts. Do-it-yourself investors, Can the market absorb higher having their third bad rising interest-rate environment, as
Illustration by Nicholas Konrad
average total returns, its portfolio though, could “ladder” the bonds, amounts of U.S. government debt? So year in a row. It isn’t bond prices move inversely with
includes foreign markets, U.S. debt, buying several at different maturities far, the answer is yes. Dynamics at just rising interest rates. Yet there are flaws in bond in-
corporate credit, and derivatives, and on TreasuryDirect.gov, at a bank, or some recent Treasury auctions have rates. dex funds that can make them vexing
it delivers a 4.9% yield with a low in a brokerage account, and reinvest- indicated weak demand, and market The largest bond in any environment. Today’s rate en-
duration of 3.5 years. Lead manager ing the cash when they come due. strategists are paying close attention exchange-traded fund, vironment could exacerbate them.
Rieder says he has been buying high- No matter how you do it, a 5% to metrics like bid-to-cover ratios and the $94 billion Vanguard Total Bond Both Vanguard Total Bond Market
quality short-term commercial paper cash yield is a bird in the hand worth the percentage of inventory that re- Market ETF, is down almost 3% this (ticker: BND) and the $89 billion
issued by banks and industrial com- taking. B mains in the hands of bond dealers year after losing 13% in 2022. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond
20 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
ETF (AGG) track a variation of the pal bond issuer: “There are actually
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond In- 328 different fixed-income securities
dex, or “Agg,” although in Vanguard’s of Verizon (VZ), and each one has a
case there is a slight emphasis on the different [interest rate] coupon, or a
benchmark’s more liquid bonds. Both different maturity or a different possi-
have beaten about 60% of their ble call date.”
Morningstar Intermediate Core Bond The bottom line is that bond index
fund category peers in the past 10 funds perform superbly for widely
years. That’s respectable, but pales in traded securities and liquid securities
comparison to major stock index like Treasuries, but not nearly as well
funds like iShares Core S&P 500 for illiquid corporate or municipal
(IVV), which has beaten 91% of its issuances.
Large Blend peers during the same In the muni bond market, there are
period. over 1.1 million individual bonds from
One reason indexing bonds is prob- over 50,000 different issuers, accord-
lematic is the bond market’s sheer ing to IHS Markit. It’s impossible to
scale and number of outstanding is- index all of these, so it makes sense
sues. “In the equity markets, there’s that Libby is able to buy a small batch
essentially only one security per is- of overlooked, attractively priced
suer for a company, and the price of bonds and beat indexes.
that security is observable at all times Because many bonds are illiquid and
when the markets are open,” says don’t trade daily, they are often omitted
Brad Libby, manager of the top-per- from index ETFs that trade in millisec- make their liquidity or illiquidity bets, quality debt.
forming Hartford Municipal Op- onds. In the Agg’s case, there are entire gaining an edge on the benchmark. Even BlackRock, which manages
portunities (HMOP). “Bonds are bond sectors it avoids, not just for Illiquid nonagency mortgage debt, the indexed iBoxx $ High Yield Corpo-
much less efficient.” He points out credit quality but also for liquidity rea- which crashed during the subprime rate Bond ETF, recognizes that active-
that there are multiple securities to sons. By contrast, active managers can crisis in 2008, has been essential to fund advantage. Jonathan Diorio, head
trade from each corporate or munici- pick and choose where they want to the $127 billion Pimco Income fund’s of product management at BlackRock
(PONAX) outperformance of the Agg Wealth Advisory, recommends the
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since then. Such mortgages can also HYG ETF more for institutional cli-
The Case for Active Bond Funds have high credit quality today, as ents who want a “beta play”—that is,
Active bond funds often outperform index bond funds. housing prices have increased since to get liquid market exposure in the
2008 and the borrowers’ finances high-yield space quickly to potentially
Index Core Bond
YTD 5-Year 15-Year Fund Size have stabilized. “The success of pas- trade. But for long-term retail inves-
Fund / Ticker Morningstar Category Return Return Return (billion)
sives [indexing] has created huge op- tors, he thinks the active mutual fund
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond / AGG Intermediate Core Bond -2.9% -0.1% 2.5% $89.0 portunities” for active management, BlackRock High Yield Bond Port-
Vanguard Total Bond Market / BND Intermediate Core Bond -2.8 -0.1 2.4 94.1 says Pimco Income manager Dan folio (BHYAX) is preferable.
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
A N A P P R E C I AT I O N
38 years. His view was that Wall Street when a Harvard admissions rep came
figured the odds of each were maybe to his Chicago school and asked the
one in three, and he viewed the proba- guidance counselor to recommend a
bility of each was higher. single student for an interview.
BY ANDREW BARY years, lastly as vice chairman of private His surprises had a good record, “The guidance counselor called me
B
wealth solutions. although they look mixed so far in in and said, ‘Wien—they called you by
yron Wien, who provided Wien was on the job as recently as 2023. Collaborating with Joe Zidle, the your last name then—you’re our pick.
insights on the economy, mid-October, participating in firmwide other Blackstone strategist, Wien was Go downtown and don’t make a fool of
financial markets, and calls during which he offered his take correct in predicting a strong dollar yourself.’ That changed my life,” Wien
global affairs for 38 years on markets and global. and that the Federal Reserve would said.
as a Wall Street strategist, Barron’s did a cover story on Wien stay tighter for longer this year but Wien admired Henry Kissinger,
most recently at Blackstone, in 2016. In that article, Loews CEO Jim wrong on strength in the Chinese now 100, because Kissinger remains
died on Wednesday at 90. Tisch said, “Byron is an 83-year-old economy and a cease-fire in the Russia/ active and influential even at the cen-
Wien was famous for his annual list man chronologically, but in tempera- Ukraine war. The list was designed to tury mark. He hoped to continue work-
of 10 surprises—a series of unexpected ment, he is 45. His passion is the mar- provoke investors and get them to con- ing in his 90s.
financial events that he thought could kets and the world around him, and sider the unexpected. Wien loved living in New York and
unfold in the coming year—and for a that comes shining through anytime Wien made his reputation as a strat- wouldn’t move to Florida or another
list of 20 life lessons that included the you talk to him.” egist at Morgan Stanley in the late low-tax state like some of his wealthy
importance of reading, travel, sleep, Wien’s speaking skills were evident 1980s and 1990s. He told Barron’s that friends.
and never retiring. at a meeting of UBS financial advisors when he wanted to originate the sur- “I might have a different attitude if
Wien followed his final bit of advice at the '21' Club in Manhattan that this prises list at Morgan Stanley in 1985, I made a few billion dollars,” he told
and continued to work at Blackstone reporter attended. After a florid intro- the firm initially nixed the idea. Barron’s in 2016. “I’ve made enough
Jerome Favre/Bloomberg
until his death. duction in which the host likened him “They said, ‘Byron, you could get all money; the taxes don’t hurt. It’s a privi-
A hip injury limited his mobility in to such greats as Jim Thorpe, Vince 10 wrong, and you would embarrass lege to live in New York. Besides the
recent years and crimped what had Lombardi, Michael Jordan, and even the firm and humiliate yourself. theater and culture, there are so many
been a punishing travel schedule, but Socrates, Wien fired back, “I sure wish Frankly, we don’t give a damn about interesting people. That’s what life is
he used Zoom calls to his advantage. my first wife could have heard that.” your humiliation, but we don’t want about, exchanging ideas with interest-
Wien worked at Blackstone for 14 At the '21' Club meeting, he went the firm to be embarrassed.’ ” Wien ing people.” B
22 BARRON’S October 30, 2023 October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 23
THE MARKET
THE BIG MONEY POLL
executive chairman and co-chief investment officer at Epoch
Investment Partners in New York, and a respondent to our
fall 2023 Big Money poll.
This fall, there is no predominant mood among the profes- Describe your investment outlook for U.S. equities in Are your clients bullish, bearish,
sional money managers surveyed by Barron’s. Some 38% of the next 12 months. or neutral about U.S. stocks?
Big Money respondents say they are bullish about the pros- 62%
pects for equities in the next 12 months. That compares with
38% in the neutral camp, and 24% who call themselves bears.
The bulls see a 14% rise for the S&P 500 index by the end
of 2024, and a 12% gain by the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The bears forecast losses of 3% for the S&P 500 and 2% for
the Dow.
Based on their mean forecasts, the bulls project a 15% gain
38% Bullish
12%
26%
by the end of 2024 for the Nasdaq Composite index, while the Bullish Neutral Bearish
bears expect the tech-heavy index to decline 4%.
The latest Big Money Poll closed on Oct. 13 and elicited
Are you beating the S&P
38%
responses from more than 100 professional investors from
across the country. Barron’s conducted the poll with the help 500 this year...
of Erdos Media Research in Ramsey, N.J. (Complete results No Yes
are at the bottom of this article.) Neutral
High-quality bonds and value stocks have the most fans in
24%
Personally? Professionally?
our survey. Investors expect a tough year ahead for the more
growth-oriented areas of the stock market. Nearly half of poll
respondents consider the U.S. stock market overvalued at 33% 35%
current levels. Bearish
One reason is the recent ramp-up in bond yields, which 67% 65%
raises the competition for equities. The Federal Reserve’s pol-
icy committee has increased its interest-rate target by more
than five percentage points in the past 19 months to cool the
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T
20% of their portfolios to fixed income today. “We like bonds,
Is the U.S. stock market overvalued, his year has posed an unusual array of chal- especially when looking at equities that are trading at above-
Our latest survey of professional investors undervalued, or fairly valued at lenges for investors, and more could be in average [valuation] multiples,” says Matt Dmytryszyn, chief
finds fewer than half of respondents bullish current levels? store. The major stock market indexes are investment officer at Telemus Capital, with $3.5 billion in
“We’re not sticking our neck out too much on a duration 20% 31%
basis,” says Zach Jonson, CIO at Stack Financial Management 8%
4%
in Whitefish, Mont. “An inflation spike or some kind of stag-
flation can happen, and you just have to be more careful than Equities Fixed Cash Other
you normally would with duration.” Income Equities Fixed Income Cash Other
It’s hard to argue with yields pushing 5.6% on T-bills or
5.1% on the two-year U.S. Treasury note. As for where to park
cash, short-term U.S. government bonds and money-market Which major equity market will perform best in the next Which investment
funds are best, according to the survey results. 12 months? approach will perform
Nearly two-thirds of Big Money respondents expect the best in the next
10-year Treasury note to yield at least 4.5% a year from now, U.S. (S&P 500) 46%
12 months?
versus a recent 4.8%. The yield still might rise a bit more be-
36%
Japan
fore trending lower, some respondents say, while noting that (Nikkei 225)
23%
it is at, or close to, levels at which locking in yields for the Europe
longer term makes sense. 14% Growth investing
(Stoxx Europe 600)
“If we can get a Treasury yielding 5% or above for a decade,
64%
Emerging Markets 14%
that’s pretty darn attractive,” says Jack DeGan, CIO at Harbor
Advisory in Portsmouth, N.H. “We haven’t seen that opportu- China
3%
nity in portfolios for a long time.” (Shanghai Composite) Value investing
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has yet to fully hit the real economy and that a recession
29%
Technology 24% Technology 17%
is a question of when, not if.
Forty-six percent of respondents expect the economy to
enter a recession in the next 12 months. However, it needn’t Mid-caps Consumer
Healthcare 13% 16%
Discretionary
be a crisis-level downturn: Just 6% of investors expect U.S.
real gross domestic product to contract by 2% or more next
year.
“It’s really hard to generate a big recession when there’s
39%
Large-caps
Financials 9% Utilities 15%
I’m here to
help you lead
your best
financial life.
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
Katie B.
Independent Financial Advisor
Since 2011
I became an independent advisor to help with more than just your financial goals. As a
fiduciary, my promise to you is simple: I will always take your full life picture into account.
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26 BARRON’S October 30, 2023 October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 27
the Fed’s rate hikes over the past 1½ years. “It’s like the
python that ate the pig—the economy needs some time to
PREDICTION fixed income and are a bit lighter
than usual on equities,” says Taylor,
digest it,” Poarch says. whose Del Mar, Calif.–based firm
Stack Financial’s Jonson points to several long-term trends Predict the levels of the following one year from now.
manages about $1.2 billion. “So, if we
that are inherently inflationary, including the so-called re- Oil (WTI) Gold Bitcoin do have a recession and the Fed starts
shoring of supply chains, the costly transition to renewable
energy, and aging demographics that are leading to a shortage
of labor in many developed markets.
$91
per barrel
$1,960 B $24,682
per troy ounce
to cut interest rates, we have the abil-
ity to shift.”
Epoch’s Priest is also bullish on
What is the biggest risk facing the stock market? Twenty- Microsoft and Alphabet, both plays
eight percent of managers worry most about a potential reces- on 2023’s hottest investing theme:
sion, 26% point to the possibility of higher interest rates, and
16% cite resurgent inflation. This highlights the delicacy of
THE ECONOMY artificial intelligence. “They’re going
to win with AI,” he says. “From a
the Federal Reserve’s balancing act. The central bank must long-term investment perspective,
tap the brakes on the economy enough to ease the upward Which best describes your Predict the growth rate of Predict the year-over- you want to be exposed to those.”
pressure on inflation, but not so much as to break things and outlook for the U.S. economy real U.S. GDP in 2024. year U.S. inflation rate Nvidia stock has rallied more than
cause a significant recession. in the next 12 months? (consumer price index) at 175% this year, also fueled by enthu-
35% the end of 2023 and 2024.
“The Fed is right to be proactive and [keep rates] higher siasm for AI. But the stock isn’t so
Recession 30%
for longer, so that inflation doesn’t come back,” says 46% popular with the Big Money crowd:
No 25 Year-end 2023 Year-end 2024
Dmytryszyn of Telemus Capital, headquartered in South- landing 29% of managers call it the market’s
20 60%
field, Mich. 20% most overvalued stock. Nvidia sports
Most Big Money managers approve of the Fed’s moves to 15 a price/earnings ratio of 27 times the
date, with 62% saying its current policy stance is just right. 10 30 next year’s estimated earnings.
But half of that percentage thinks the Fed has tightened too 5 Energy stocks are Big Money inves-
Soft
much and risks pushing the economy into a recession. landing 0 0 tors’ favorite sector for the year ahead,
Nearly all survey respondents think the Fed is just about 33% -2% or -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% or 2% or 3% 4% 5% 6% or designated as such by 33% of respon-
done raising interest rates, and that rate cuts could be coming less more less more dents. They like the sector for its rela-
next year. More than 80% predict that Fed officials will lower tively discounted valuation, high cash-
the current federal-funds target range of 5.25% to 5.50% next flow yields, and generous dividend and
year by at least a quarter of a percentage point, while 35% Where will the federal-funds rate be at the Is the Federal Reserve’s policy stance...
share-buyback policies. Exposure to
end of 2023 and the end of 2024?
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expect rate cuts of more than half a point. a potential spike in oil and gas prices
Joe Frohna, founding principal and portfolio manager at Federal-funds rate target range 2023 2024 also makes energy a defensive play.
1492 Capital Management, based in Milwaukee, notes that the Too tight Poll respondents see West Texas
0% 31%
Fed’s first rate decrease of a cycle historically has followed the Below 4.25% Appropriate / Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil
central bank’s last hike by an average of 7.5 months. That pat- 8% just right price, rising to $91 a barrel in a year
62% Too
tern implies a rate cut sometime around the middle of next 2% from the mid-$80s today. “Energy is
4.25%-4.50% loose?
year. 10% 6% both cheap and attractive as a hedge,”
“For the stock and bond markets to work in 2024, you’re 2% says Jonson, whose firm has about $1.8
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
going to need the Fed to step out of the way,” says Frohna. 4.50%-4.75%
16% billion in assets under management.
“At a minimum, that means they say they’re pausing, if not Gratus’ Jones also likes midstream
[cutting] outright.” 5% Will the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthen,
4.75%-5.00% energy companies for their dividends
Broader participation in the market beyond the largest 28% weaken, or stay the same in the next 12
and contractual cash flows tied to the
stocks would help to extend any rally. The S&P 500’s 9% gain 17% months?
5.00%-5.25%
volume of oil and natural gas that flows
year to date is almost entirely due to advances in a handful of 21% through their pipelines. Midstream
megacap tech stocks including Apple (ticker: AAPL), Nvidia 47% No change companies include Williams Cos.
(NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL). 5.25%-5.50% 25%
8% (WMB), which yields 5.2%; Oneok
Weaken
“It’s hard to get excited about a rally when it’s being led by 51% (OKE), yielding 5.7%; and Kinder
26%
such a narrow group,” says Todd Jones, CIO of Gratus Capital 5.50%-5.75% Morgan (KMI), yielding 6.7%.
8%
in Atlanta, with about $3 billion in assets. “The valuations of Strengthen Higher interest rates and bond
the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are super-elevated ver- 2%
5.75%-6.00% 24% yields have weighed on other income-
sus the bottom 490.” 1%
generating assets, including dividend
About 60% of Big Money respondents expect small- or stocks. DeGan sees opportunities in
mid-cap stocks to outperform large-caps over the next 12 the shares of quality companies with
months. The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap exchange-traded What will the two-year Treasury note and the 10-year Treasury note yield one year from now?
durable businesses that have seen
fund (IJR) and the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) are their valuations fall and dividend
Two-Year 10-Year 26%
ways to play the market’s smaller stocks. yields rise this year. He points to
Weatherly Asset Management’s Carolyn Taylor is sticking 20% Brookfield Infrastructure Part-
with Big Tech stocks for now, and waiting for better opportu- ners (BIP), with a 6.7% yield; Pfizer
15% 14%
nities to present themselves. These companies have pristine 13% 14% 14% 13% 14% (PFE), paying 5.4%; and NextEra
balance sheets and wide competitive moats, and generate a 9% 10% Energy (NEE), yielding 3.4%.
ton of free cash flow, she notes. Should rates fall, however, 6% 6% 6% 6% Plenty could go wrong for the
4% 4% 4%
more-speculative areas in the technology sector could become 3% markets and world in the next year.
1% 1% 1%
more attractive, namely shares of the fast-growing but richly 0% 0% For investors in stocks and bonds, a
valued companies expected to generate the bulk of their prof- 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% focus on attractive yields and under-
its far in the future. or less or more valued assets seems like a sensible
“We have dry powder in the form of cash and short-term Note: some percentages may not total 100 due to rounding game plan. B
28 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
F UN DS
Scoreboard: A World at Risk
Concentrated Funds U.S. stocks took a hit, with the S&P 500 down 3.29%, as bond yields remained elevated. Natural
resource stocks shed 4.78% in the face of rising geopolitical risks and slowing global growth.
B
ProFunds Btcn Str PF Inv / BTCFX Alt Currency Strat 17.70% 93.1%
ruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme gers to build a couple of thousand homes. Cboe V Bitcoin SMV Inv / BTCLX
IDX R-M Bitcoin Str Inst / BTIDX
Flexible Portfolio
Alt Currency Strat
17.36
12.40
68.8
6.9
fund was Morningstar’s Manager It averages out to a very nice double-digit Ashmore EM Sht Dur Inst / ESFIX Emg Mkts HC Debt 4.11 13.0
PIMCO Extend Dur Inst / PEDIX Corp Debt BBB Rtd 3.31 – 19.3
of the Decade in 2010. Now, many growth rate, but it doesn’t happen in a RESQ Strategic Income A / RQIAX Abs Return 3.13 – 15.9
investors haven’t heard of him. smooth line.” GMO Asst Alloc Bond VI / GABFX General Bond 3.00 – 10.5
Morg Stan LD Gov Opp A / USGAX General US Govt 2.83 – 14.4
But 2023 could change that. So far, the Most investors don’t have the patience Kinetics Internet NL / WWWFX Science & Tech 2.63 19.2
$1.2 billion fund (ticker: FAIRX) is up 23%, to reap the benefits. One Morningstar stat Gotham Short Strat I / GSSFX Alt Long/Short Eq 2.49 – 0.4
Wasatch Hois US Tr Inv / WHOSX Genl US Treasury 2.32 – 15.1
better than 99% of peers in Morningstar’s worth examining is Investor Returns, Vanguard Lg-Tm Trs Adm / VUSUX Genl US Treasury 2.25 – 11.7
PIMCO Lng-Tm Govt Inst / PGOVX General US Govt 2.21 – 11.5
Large Value category. It has done that which calculates returns based on inves- Quantified GI Tact Inv / QGITX General US Govt 2.18 – 9.4
without any artificial-intelligence stocks. tor trading activity versus the fund’s reg- Fidelity Telecom & Utils / FIUIX Utility 2.16 – 5.6
Ecofin Glbl Rwb Inf Inst / ECOIX Glb Infrastructure 2.09 – 21.7
Before you click “Buy,” you must un- ular returns if you just bought and held. MFS Utilities A / MMUFX Utility 2.08 – 11.8
derstand Fairholme’s bizarre portfolio Calculated monthly, through Sept. 30, Fidelity Adv Util A / FUGAX Utility 2.08 – 9.3
DWS Latin Am Eq S / SLAFX Latin American 2.07 10.8
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design and management structure. Some Fairholme had a 10-year annualized in- DFA LTIP Portfolio Inst / DRXIX Infl Protected 2.07 – 14.7
82% of the fund’s portfolio is invested in vestor return of 1.7%, versus 6.4% for the Fidelity Sel Utilities / FSUTX Utility 2.05 – 9.0
Leg&Gen LD US Cred W / LLDWX Corp Debt BBB Rtd 1.99 – 6.4
one stock—Florida real estate developer fund. The fund has suffered some $7 bil- PIMCO Long Dur TR Inst / PLRIX Corp Debt BBB Rtd 1.84 – 8.1
St. Joe (JOE). Berkowitz is chairman of lion in shareholder outflows in the past SEI Inst Inv L Dur Cr A / SLDAX Corp Debt A Rated 1.81 – 6.4
St. Joe’s board of directors, and he says 10 years, after the bloom was off the The Week's Bottom 10
“a third of the [Fairholme] fund is money ”Manager of the Decade” rose. Fund Investment Objective One Week Year-to-Date
affiliated with my family”—an estimated Return gaps are common for volatile Berkshire Focus / BFOCX Multi-Cap Growth – 7.87 12.9
Transam Cap Growth I / TFOIX Multi-Cap Growth – 6.86% 8.8%
$340 million. So, the Berkowitz clan is funds. Every year, Morningstar produces Midas Magic / MISEX Multi-Cap Core – 6.79 8.9
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
essentially paying the fund’s 1% manage- a “Mind the Gap” study examining how Firsthand Tech Opptys / TEFQX Science & Tech – 6.78 – 13.9
Bail Giff US EG I / BGGSX Multi-Cap Growth – 6.48 9.1
ment fee to itself. investor returns differ versus regular Needham Sm Cap Gro Instl / NESIX Small-Cap Core – 6.47 – 20.7
Eventide Expo Tech I / ETIEX Science & Tech – 6.47 3.4
Berkowitz, who lives in Florida, calls returns for different fund categories. Ac- Brown Cap Mid Co Inst / BCMIX Mid-Cap Growth – 6.46 0.2
his family’s Fairholme assets “permanent cording to the latest, 2023 version, “we Rydex Energy Svcs Inv / RYVIX Natural Resources – 6.37 7.3
Morg Stan I Growth A / MSEGX Multi-Cap Growth – 6.34 10.7
capital.” found that the least-volatile quintile [of
Fairholme is a textbook example of both funds across all categories] had a 0.94% The Largest 25
the promise and perils of concentrated a year gap, on average, while the most- Assets 3-Year* 1-Week YTD
Fund Investment (billions) Objective Return Return Return
funds. Even when the long-term returns volatile quintile had a 1.94% annual gap.” American Funds Gro A / AGTHX $110.6 Large-Cap Growth 2.3% – 3.79% 14.5%
of such funds are strong, many investors Fairholme has a 10-year standard devia- Fidelity Contrafund / FCNTX $97.4 Large-Cap Core 4.9% – 3.72% 21.7%
don’t enjoy them because they can’t handle tion, a volatility measure, of 25%, versus American Funds Bal A / ABALX 91.3 Mix Tgt All Gro 3.2 – 1.53 1.7
Vanguard Wellington Adm / VWENX 88.3 Mix Tgt All Gro 3.5 – 1.90 2.3
the volatility. Returns on just a handful of 15% for the average Large Value fund. Vanguard Tgt Ret2035 Inv / VTTHX Mixed-Asset Target 2035 2.1 – 1.67 3.3
82.4
stocks tend to be feast or famine. Ironically, concentrated funds could Vanguard Tgt Ret2030 Inv / VTHRX 81.6 Mix-Asst Targ 2030 1.3 – 1.44 2.9
Almost two-thirds of Fairholme’s 2023 provide diversification for the rest of Fidelity SA US Tot Stk / FCTDX 80.8 Multi-Cap Core 7.7 – 3.24 9.3
PIMCO Income Inst / PIMIX 75.8 Multi-Sector Inc 0.1 0.63 2.0
return so far came on July 27, when its your portfolio. “Most clients are already
Vanguard Tgt Ret2025 Inv / VTTVX 72.2 Mixed-Asset Target 2025 0.8 – 1.16 2.5
share price leapt from $33.25 to $38.24—a overdiversified,” says Phillip Cook, co- Vanguard Tgt Ret2040 Inv / VFORX 72.2 Mixed-Asset Target 2040 2.8 – 1.95 3.8
gain of 15%. Instead of the top 1% ranking manager of SouthernSun Small Cap American Funds Wash A / AWSHX 71.6 Large-Cap Value 9.5 – 2.73 3.1
in Morningstar, in 2021 and 2022 it was (SSSFX), which holds 21 small compa- American Funds Inc A / AMECX 71.1 Mix Tgt All Mod 4.6 – 0.97 – 2.9
American Funds ICA A / AIVSX 70.7 Large-Cap Core 8.0 – 2.74 9.7
ranked in the bottom 100th percentile nies. “If you own several mutual funds, Vanguard Tgt Ret2045 Inv / VTIVX 68.8 Mixed-Asset Target 2045 3.5 – 2.22 4.2
with 6.9% and minus 20.5% respective you don’t need 50 or 100 more stocks Fidelity SA Core Inc / FIWGX 64.3 General Bond – 4.6 0.90 – 2.0
returns. That’s after a top 1% ranking in from SouthernSun.” American Funds EuPc R6 / RERGX 60.9 Intl Large-Cap Growth – 2.2 – 1.89 1.1
Vanguard PRIMECAP Adm / VPMAX 60.5 Large-Cap Core 8.7 – 4.22 11.4
2020 with a 46.9% return. If you held for True, but in Fairholme’s case, investors Dodge & Cox Stck I / DODGX 60.0 Multi-Cap Value 13.3 – 2.53 2.7
the past five years, you would have beaten could just buy St. Joe stock directly and American Funds FInv A / ANCFX 58.9 Large-Cap Core 6.8 – 3.03 7.7
99% of the fund’s peers with a 14.8% re- not have to pay its 1% management fee. American Funds CIB A / CAIBX 57.4 Global Equity Income 4.2 – 0.95 – 2.4
Vanguard Tgt Ret2050 Inv / VFIFX Mix-Asst Targ 2050 3.7 – 2.40 4.4
turn. Then again, in the past 10 years In fact, Berkowitz says he has no problem 56.6
Dodge & Cox Income I / DODIX 56.5 Core Bond – 3.7 0.86 – 1.2
ended on Oct. 23, it has lagged behind paying institutional shareholders who American Funds NPer A / ANWPX 51.2 Global Large-Cap Growth 2.3 – 2.66 7.4
97% of peers, with a 5% return. want to sell their Fairholme fund stake Fidelity Str Adv LgCp / FALCX 50.9 Large-Cap Core 0 – 3.28 9.4
The July 27 surge was due to a strong with, you guessed it, shares of St. Joe American Funds CWGI A / CWGIX 49.3 Global Large-Cap Core 3.8 – 2.04 5.0
St. Joe’s earning report. “[St. Joe’s] prog- instead of cash. B *Annualized 10/22/2020 to 10/26/2023. Through Thursday. Source: Lipper
October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 29
I N C O M E I N V E ST I N G
Procter & Gamble, Clorox, and Kenvue are among
the standouts in a beaten-down sector. They
boast healthy payouts and resilient businesses.
5 Consumer Staples
continue to be a headwind for the com- and were asking questions later.”
pany, which has a big presence over- Sethi says there are some good
seas. Business in China is a concern, companies in the consumer staples
too. Still, the company continues to space—and not necessarily ones with
Growing Dividends
Procter & Gamble even managed to provides frozen potatoes, including
boost its dividend during the early part french fries, to restaurants in North
of the pandemic in 2020, when other America, and Haleon (HLN), a con-
large companies were cutting or sus- sumer healthcare company that was
pending their payouts. “Procter & spun out of the pharmaceutical group
Gamble is a fortress, and they are per- GSK last year. The stocks both yield
C
forming and executing exceptionally about 1.3%, not very high. But Lamb
onsumer staples BY covers were recently trading at about a well right now,” says English. Weston, for example, boosted its quar-
stocks have had LAWRENCE 10% premium to the broader market, Some industries within consumer terly dividend early this year by 14%,
a tough run lately C. STRAUSS down from 44% at the end of last year. staples, however, are facing bigger to 28 cents a share.
amid concerns He and other analysts are also headwinds than others. That bears Morningstar’s Lash said that most
about rising bond closely following how the U.S. con- watching when considering dividend companies in her coverage area, which
yields, the health of sumer is holding up. “The healthy opportunities. For example, overall includes packaged food and household
the U.S. consumer, consumer landscape is beginning to volumes for food sales are down about and personal-care names, “have been
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and the introduction of obesity drugs. show some fault lines, such as rising 1%, says English. “The most plausible committed to growing and maintaining
The Consumer Staples Select credit-card delinquencies,” observes explanation is that [groceries] for the the dividends that they have now.”
Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund Saira Malik, Nuveen’s chief invest- consumer got very expensive and That includes Clorox (CLX). Its
(ticker: XLP), representing makers of ment officer, in her most recent they’re working a little harder to array of products include bleach and
essential products like food, clothing, weekly note. Says Erin Lash, director waste less food,” he says, adding that Formula 409, an all-purpose cleaner.
and soap, is down 10% in the past of consumer equity research at Morn- many shoppers are buying less pro- The company had a major setback in
three months, including dividends, one ingstar: “The concern, No. 1, is will cessed food. In contrast, two other August when a cyberattack disrupted
of the worst-performing sectors in the the resiliency that we’ve seen from subsectors—beverages, along with its operations. Lash doesn’t think that
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S&P 500. The broad index has gained consumers continue to hold up? household and personal care—are will hurt the company’s longer-term
11% over that stretch. There is an expectation that that is more insulated. The latter includes prospects, however. “And given the
But even with those many worries, going to start to moderate.” Procter & Gamble. robust cash flows that they generate, as
there are some consumer staples Procter & Gamble (PG), a staples Still another worry for the sector is well as the health of the balance sheet,
stocks with healthy and growing divi- bellwether, beat estimates in its most the introduction of GLP-1 drugs to help we don’t think that dividend is at risk,
dends, thanks to strong balance sheets, recent quarterly results. The company, with weight loss. The prospect of peo- either,” she adds. The company pays a
good cash flow, and resilient under- whose signature products include ple eating less has raised concerns for quarterly dividend of $1.20 a share; the
lying businesses. Gillette razor blades, Crest toothpaste, packaged-food companies, among other stock yields 3.9%.
Like utilities, another laggard, the and Bounty paper towels, on Oct. 18 industries. Sarat Sethi, managing part- English of Goldman Sachs says that
staples sector is considered a bond reported fiscal first-quarter diluted ner at investment advisory firm DCLA, Kenvue (KVUE), a consumer health
proxy. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s net earnings of $1.83 a share, up 17% says that selling staples stocks based on giant spun out of Johnson & Johnson
yield on Monday touched 5%, its high- from a year earlier. Volumes fell by 1%, the advent of those new drugs is over- (JNJ) in May, has plenty to recommend
est level since 2007. The consumer though pricing was up 7%. done. “This is much more of a reaction it, even amid concern about litigation.
staples stocks in the S&P 500 were A stronger U.S. dollar will no doubt short term,” he says. “People sold first Kenvue recently initiated a quarterly
yielding 2.9% as of Oct. 20. dividend of 20 cents a share, which
Rising interest rates arguably have equates to a yield of about 4%.
been the biggest problem for the sector, Stable Staples One overhang on the stock has been
says Jason English, who covers the These are five consumer staples stocks whose dividends should continue to grow, concern about litigation related to the
stocks at Goldman Sachs. Like utilities, even in a tougher economy. safety of Tylenol. “The story is funda-
consumer staples stocks tend to have Company / Ticker Dividend Yield Market Value (billion) YTD Return 2024E P/E mentally sound,” says English. “The
higher yields than those in many other Clorox / CLX 3.9% $15.1 -11.1% 20.5** capital allocation is favorable for share-
sectors, giving them bondlike appeal. Haleon / HLN 1.1 38.2 4.7 17.4
holders who are looking for income.
But the yields on bonds are getting You do have to stomach some of the
Kenvue / KVUE 4.1 37.7 -9.8* 15.8
harder and harder to compete with; uncertainty around litigation.”
Lamb Weston Holdings / LW 1.3 12.6 -1.6 14.3***
10-year Treasuries are now around 5%. These stocks could continue to get
Procter & Gamble / PG 2.5 349.2 0.2 21.5**
The staples sector, while not dirt knocked around in the short term, but
Note: data as of Oct. 23; E=estimate. *Return since initial public offering on May 3.
cheap in English’s view, has become **Estimates for fiscal 2025, which ends in June. *** Estimate for fiscal 2025, which ends in May. their growing dividends should help
more modestly valued. The stocks he Source: Bloomberg smooth out some of that choppiness. B
30 BARRON’S October 30, 2023 October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 31
The Economic
young men. It isn’t just a young What is driving young adults’ We don’t have great data yet, but it caring for older people. We have un-
woman’s problem. Both young women worsening mental health, if not turns out that we do have some for the derinvested in mental-health care.
and young men have seen this uptick, Covid? United Kingdom—and the answer is One implication is that we are going
although for women it is worse. So I don’t know because it’s still early basically the same. But the U.K. doesn’t to need lots more therapists. [About
far, we have seen that levels of mental days. Something fundamental hap- have as large a proportion of deaths of 166 million Americans live in areas
Costs of
distress vary especially by educa- pened in the U.S. for the young, espe- despair. It also has better mental- with shortages of mental health pro-
tion—it is worse for the less-educated. cially for young women, from 2011 health provisions for its citizens. fessionals as of October 2023, ac-
At first, I thought the Covid-19 onward. One possibility is that labor cording to the U.S. Health Resources
pandemic could be the cause, but it markets for the young worsened. Is the impact of growing despair & Services Administration.] There is
isn’t just Covid. It is clear in the data After 2009, youth unemployment already hitting the economy, or a potential for investors to find ways
that the trend started prior to Covid. rates around the world were huge. is it expected to be a passing to help these people by funding com-
Unhappiness
You can see that it started roughly in Unemployment among young adults phenomenon? panies related to mental health solu-
2011. Covid just extended the trend. in the U.S. hit 20% in April 2010. This is a new phenomenon, so we tions and services.
Underemployment applied to the don’t know the answer. Will this re-
What are the economic young, as well, so they had a double main a pattern among new popula- If this is, at least in part, a labor
implications? whammy. People couldn’t get a job, tion cohorts? Maybe not. It might not market issue, how do we fix it,
On an individual level, this is bad. and if they got a job, it was lower apply because today’s children won’t especially given that there is
People with these levels of despair down the pyramid or didn’t offer have been hit by two shocks—the fairly low unemployment in the
BY MEGAN LEONHARDT Blanchflower spoke with Barron’s died at a much higher rate in the enough hours. post-financial-crisis recession and U.S. right now?
Y
in mid-October about his latest re- past 20 years from drug overdoses, The second possibility might have the Covid pandemic. But it is likely Labor market fixes are important,
oung Americans are search, what might be driving rising drinking problems, or suicide. to do with social media. Some that poor mental health will continue but this is based on problems that
plagued by an epidemic levels of unhappiness in young Also, it is hard to think that high women might feel shamed by what throughout the lives of the young have accumulated. Even though we
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of unhappiness, accord- adults, and the implications of this levels of distress won’t have serious they see on social media, more so adults currently suffering. have very low levels of unemploy-
ing to anecdotal evidence disturbing trend for the labor market effects on young people’s ability to than men. But at this point nobody Here’s an analogy that might make ment, we have incredibly high levels
and social science re- and the economy. An edited version transition into the labor market. knows to what extent social media sense. Think about World War I and of mental illness. A 3.8% unemploy-
search. The origins aren’t of the conversation follows. Some famous research done by is playing a role. World War II. Those events took ment rate ain’t fixing this. So, the fix
clear, although the Covid David Ellwood [a labor economist]
pandemic didn’t help. Barron’s: It is fairly widely ac- found that long spells of unemploy-
Nor did social media, based on knowledged that the mental health ment when you’re young generate “Mental distress lowers economic potential by lowering the
a lawsuit filed on Oct. 24 against of young Americans has deterio- permanent scars, not temporary
lifetime incomes of the people affected, and presumably their
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
Meta Platforms (ticker: META) by rated. What is significant about blemishes. If people are unemployed
42 state attorneys general, who allege
that Facebook and Instagram pur-
your newest research in this area?
David Blanchflower: I have written
when they’re 40, the damaging effect
goes away. But if you don’t make a
spending ability, which lowers the productive potential of the
posefully ensnared children and
teens to the detriment of their long-
a lot about despair, distress, and
well-being. My work has showed
successful transition from school to
work early on, you never do.
economy.” —David Blanchflower
term physical and mental health. that happiness trends are basically Trends like this lower the eco-
David Blanchflower, a British- hump-shaped over a lifetime. Dis- nomic potential of a country, as well. How much of an impact did the away a slew of men and dramatically is probably outside the labor market.
American labor economist, has stud- tress or despair peaks in midlife. The U.S. has seen a big decline in financial crisis of 2008-09 and affected the mental health of others.
ied happiness and mental-health Young people are happy, middle- labor-force participation [since the the resulting recession have on For the next 50 years, there were What else are you studying?
trends for decades, and his new aca- aged people are less happy, and then 2008-09 financial crisis]. Who are 20-somethings who saw their par- fewer men alive than were being I am currently looking at what are
demic research, conducted with Alex older people recover [happiness] in the people who withdraw from the ents lose jobs, savings, or homes? born—and fewer healthy men than called ACEs—adverse childhood ex-
Bryson, a professor of quantitative retirement. But what has happened, labor force? In many cases, people It is possible the recession impacted previously. In the succeeding cohorts, periences. The idea is to think about
social science at University College suddenly, is that the well-being of the with mental-health issues. young people more than others. The that wasn’t true. So, some develop- what the consequences of this de-
London, confirms how bleak things young has collapsed, while other Mental distress also lowers eco- high incidence of mental distress ments don’t transcend generations. cline in mental health are among the
have become. It isn’t just that young generations are the same. nomic potential by lowering the life- among today’s 20-somethings could It might well be that only those born young. My colleague Alex Bryson
adults feel sad or unhappy for a day In the latest research, I asked this time incomes of the people affected, well be the repercussion of adverse from 1990 to, let’s say, 2010 are going and I show that being bullied or
or two; 12% of 23-year-old women, question: Over the past 30 days, what and presumably their spending abil- things that happened to them when to pay a permanent price in terms of abused as a child—or experiencing a
they found, report that every day of number of those days [were] bad men- ity, which lowers the productive po- they were children. If your parents di- poor mental health or heightened host of other conditions like unem-
their lives is a bad mental health day. tal health days? If you said “every day tential of the economy. This is a big vorced because times were tough or lost distress. ployed or divorced parents—has life-
The current state of mental distress of my life is a bad mental health day,” deal—a really big deal. their jobs or house, that’s a big deal. But time, lasting effects on both mental
has negative implications not only for that’s what I call distress. In 2011, Mental distress has implications the labor market likely has a lot more to What should investors take away and physical health. It seems these
the individual but also for society and about 5% of women under age 25 re- for the housing market, too. If you do with the mental distress we’re seeing from this body of research? ACEs inflame the blood, which gen-
the economy, says Blanchflower, who ported mental distress. But by 2023, are mentally unwell, the chances of now than people realize. The situation You’re going to need a giant increase erates even lower life expectancy and
previously served as a member of the more than 10% said every day of their forming a partnership or getting was made worse by the growth of social in mental-health provision to try to other physical conditions such as
Monetary Policy Committee of the lives was a bad mental health day. married and having children—all of media, and then, Covid. deal with these young people. This diabetes, heart attacks, and strokes.
Bank of England, and is now a ten- The same thing is happening with those things are up in the air. It di- will continue to increase psychiatric It also lowers earnings decades later.
ured professor of economics at Dart- minishes the prospects for striking Is unhappiness among the young a admissions.
mouth College in New Hampshire. Photograph by DAVID DEGNER out on your own. uniquely American phenomenon? In the past, people invested in Thanks, David. B
32 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
THE EC ONOMY
It takes a federal-funds rate equal to or above
nominal GDP to slow the economy. The current
rate target is 0.75 percentage point below.
Forecasts Suggest So
ahead, writes Steven Blitz, chief U.S. former chief economist of BCA Re-
economist for TS Lombard. For the search, in the November Bank Credit
final three months of the year, he sees Analyst.
growth slowing to a 1.5% annual rate
T
as fiscal policy’s tailwind abates and he disinflation era began
the Fed’s rate hikes begin to bite. when Paul Volcker was
T
In nominal terms, unadjusted for named Fed Chairman in
he U.S. economy America economists David Doyle and inflation, the U.S. economy grew at an 1979. By the end of 1980, the
has something in Neil Shankar. We were spending on 8.5% annual rate in the latest quarter, Fed had boosted the fed-funds rate to
common with base- experiences, like Taylor Swift and Be- including 3.5% growth in the so-called 22%, far above the 12.4% inflation rate,
ball’s World Series, yoncé concerts, including travel, hotels, GDP price deflator. Measured from a resulting in a deep recession but usher-
which finally got and of course, the merch. But they year ago, nominal GDP grew at a still- ing in a multidecade period of disinfla-
under way on Oct. noted that the splurge came out of sav- steamy 6.3% annual rate. tion.
27. The series pits ings, as real disposable spending con- With nominal GDP growing at the That changed after what Barnes
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two good, but not great teams against BY RANDALL tracted for three consecutive months fastest rate since the mid-1980s, the termed the Great Financial Recession,
each other: the Texas Rangers and the W. FORSYTH through August. Fed should be looking to raise its pol- which he dates from 2007 to 2020. The
Arizona Diamondbacks, who made it Residential construction added just icy rate further, says Joseph Carson, Fed kept short-term rates at zero from
to the Fall Classic by parlaying their 0.1 percentage point to the third-quar- former chief economist for Alliance- 2010 to 2015 while nominal GDP aver-
Wild Card finishes through the post- ter tally, while the contribution from Bernstein. While the FOMC is certain aged 4%. But inflation remained sur-
season playoffs to their respective nonresidential business investment to stand pat this week, “history shows prisingly subdued owing to moderate
league championships. was nil—the weakest showing since it takes a fed-funds rate equal to or growth and wage pressures kept in
Good, but not great, also describes the third quarter of 2021. Government above nominal GDP to slow the econ- check by workers’ worries about job
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
the initial estimate of third-quarter spending kicked in 0.8 percentage omy, and the current target is still security.
gross domestic product, which point. Together, those components [0.75 percentage point] below” the Central banks talk tough about
showed a 4.9% seasonally adjusted comprise domestic final sales and total year-over-year rate, he wrote on his getting inflation back to 2% “but talk
annual rate of increase, after adjusting 3.6 percentage points. Another 1.3 LinkedIn blog. is cheap, especially when economic
for inflation. That topped the consen- percentage points came from inven- The economy’s current growth and growth is holding up better than ex-
sus of economists’ forecasts, which tory accumulation, while the trade Fed policy makers’ intent to lower in- pected,” Barnes writes.
called for a robust showing in the The Fed’s forecast of a soft landing
low-4% range, and more than twice in 2024 and median expectations for
the 2.1% pace in the second quarter. 2025 of 2.2% inflation, real growth of
Still, the latest quarter’s results 1.8%, and a 3.8% fed-funds rate is a
were boosted by certain factors not “fairy tale outcome,” Barnes writes.
likely to be repeated, and others that He suspects the inflation target will
might detract from growth. Moreover, give way and a new 3% to 4% inflation
the data show that, while the Federal range will be tolerated eventually.
Open Market Committee is certain to Moderately higher inflation might
hold interest rates steady at this com- be welcomed in some quarters, espe-
ing week’s policy meeting, inflation cially by heavily indebted govern-
remains well above its 2% target. ments happy to see the real burden of
MARKET WEEK
Oct. 23 through Oct. 27, 2023
Dow Jones Industrials S&P 500 Nasdaq Composite Communications Services Select Sector SPDR
32,417.59
52-wk: -1.35% YTD: -2.20% Wkly: -2.14%
4117.37
52-wk: +5.54% YTD: +7.24% Wkly: -2.53%
12,643.01
52-wk: +13.88% YTD: +20.80% Wkly: -2.62%
$63.09
52-wk: +28.68% YTD: +31.46% Wkly: -5.16%
4%
0
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-2
Closing the Short Earnings Volatility
Bond yields pulled back on Monday, The S&P 500 snapped a five-day losing
boosting shares of growth-oriented streak on Tuesday amid a deluge of third-
firms. Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman quarter results. Alphabet stock dropped -4
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said his firm had closed its bearish precipitously on Wednesday after
bets against long-term bonds. reporting the prior evening.
-6
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Close
Source: Barron’s Statistics
T
he stock market the previous one, a theme that repeated clues as to how long they will stay
the five-year average of 1%. Such ho-hum fell to 4.86% from its high of 5.02% this
Vital Signs Industry Action
market reactions to earnings reflect a mar- past Monday morning. That means buyers Friday’s Week’s Week’s Friday’s Week’s Week’s Performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Industrials, ranked by weekly percent change.*
ket that’s still too expensive. The S&P 500 are coming in quickly, sending the price of Close Change % Chg. Close Change % Chg.
trades at some 17 times expected earnings the debt up and its yield down. Those in- DJ Industrials 32417.59 -709.69 -2.14 Barron’s Future Focus 831.60 -28.07 -3.26
per share over the next 12 months. That’s vestors have lots of reason to stay in the DJ Transportation 13556.07 -894.34 -6.19 Barron’s Next 50 2356.81 -80.57 -3.31 Telecommunications 1.58%
DJ Utilities 812.89 +5.74 +0.71 Barron’s 400 907.97 -19.24 -2.07
elevated, considering that higher yields market, which would send the yield even DJ 65 Stocks 10596.53 -322.78 -2.96 Utilities 1.04
Last Week Week Earlier
make future profits less valuable, which lower. According to St. Louis Fed data, the DJ US Market 1001.58 -26.73 -2.60 NYSE Advances 827 732 –0.58 Basic Materials
should weigh on valuation multiples. His- yield is almost 2.5 percentage points above NYSE Comp. 14675.78 -357.53 -2.38 Declines 2,171 2,278
torically, the S&P 500’s multiple should the average annual inflation rate expected NYSE Amer Comp. 4461.57 -120.30 -2.63 Unchanged 60 46 –1.27 Consumer Services
New Highs 42 85
land somewhere in the low teens when the over the next 10 years. That gap, among the S&P 500 4117.37 -106.79 -2.53
–2.12 Financials
S&P MidCap 2326.82 -66.46 -2.78 New Lows 787 559
10-year yield, at 4.84%, is as high as it is biggest since the 2008-09 financial crisis, S&P SmallCap 1068.80 -24.67 -2.26 Av Daily Vol (mil) 3,952.9 3,772.9 –2.16 Consumer Goods
now, according to Evercore. could attract more bond buyers. Nasdaq 12643.01 -340.80 -2.62 Dollar (Finex spot index) 106.58 106.16
–2.52 Industrials
“The yield is, at least in the short term, If that happens, so-called defensive Value Line (arith.) 8310.43 -238.64 -2.79 T-Bond (CBT nearby futures) 109-16 108-15
–2.90 Technology
A few factors make it look as if yields That puts the sector on pace for its worst Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO), has lower yields on long-dated debt boost the time to buy: Give all four sectors a look. aging to ON as to others. Chips for electric ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc., a registered broker-dealer, is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust.
could head lower. First, the 10-year yield annual underperformance on record, says fallen about 6% for the year. The Health discounted value of those earnings. vehicles and consumer electronics, a signif-
The Case for ON Semiconductor icant portion of ON’s sales, weren’t re-
Chip stocks have gotten crushed—and stricted. “ON is not impacted by the ban,”
shares of ON Semiconductor (ON) are no
exception. It’s cheap now, and could pop if
it beats earnings expectations on Monday.
says Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymour.
Nor is the company as exposed to
industrials as TI. ON gets almost half of
TO ADVERTISE, CALL 1-800-366-3975
ON stock is down about 25% to a recent its revenue from the auto industry. Those
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
$81.16 from its record high this summer, a products are higher priced, and ON says
victim of tech weakness and concerns over it expects annual sales to grow in the high To advertise in Barron’s classifieds, TEXAS OIL LEASES FOR SALE
export curbs to China. The plunge was com- teens in these segments. It’s a big reason SHACKELFORD & SCURRY COUNTIES TEXAS
pounded by a chip selloff on Wednesday analysts project revenue growth of about call 1.800.366.3975 or email 9000 PRIME LEASEHOLD ACRES
PROVED RESERVE 1.0MM BBL
POCKET MONEY
after Texas Instruments (TXN) missed 12% annually from the start of 2023 [email protected] NON-PRODUCING 2.4MM BBL
UNDEVELOPED 3.6MM BBL
sales forecasts and reported weak demand through 2026, when sales could hit $11.7 PROBABLE .6MM BBL
from industrial customers. That hit all semi billion. These chips are more profitable, TOTAL RESERVES 7.6MM BBL
stocks—iShares Semiconductor ETF too, and analysts expect gross margins [email protected] | (813) 467-7119
(SOXX) fell 4%—and ON, which sells to to rise to over 50% by 2026, which could
G EATPP
“No reason why it shouldn’t be a buy.” able, given that it will probably slow long-
The short term is the problem right now, term investments such as new equipment.
and earnings could be the solution. Ana- The growth—and evidence of it in up- Barron’s Classifieds is where our readers discover
lysts project third-quarter sales of $2.15 coming earnings—should drive the stock opportunities in real estate, business investments,
THE
billion and earnings of $1.34 a share. Both higher. It trades at under 15 times EPS esti- corporate aircraft, yachts, fine cars and so much
would be slightly lower than during the mates for the coming 12 months, below its more.
same period a year ago, mostly due to a peak for 2023 of just over 20 times. It trades For information on advertising, call 1.800.366.3975
decline in consumer-related chip sales. ON, at less than the S&P 500’s 17 times, and it’s or email [email protected]
though, said on its second-quarter earnings expected to grow EPS faster than the index.
call that forward guidance, which analysts “ON is relatively cheap,” says Laffer Tengler
use to configure estimates, was conserva- Investments analyst John McGinn, whose
@2023 DOW JONES & COMPANY,INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 4E6063 tive because of the economic picture. firm is considering buying shares. We
The good news: ON has a track record of recommend doing the same. B
36 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
INTERNATIONAL TRADER
Graphite Is China’s
New Trade Weapon
BY CRAIG MELLOW are in the pilot stage. Australian-listed
Syrah Resources (ticker: SYR.Australia),
C
hina just pulled out some heavy controls a large mining complex in Mo-
artillery in the global tech cold zambique and is building a processing
war, though it hasn’t fired just plant in Louisiana. (Its shares jumped
yet. 40% on China’s announcement.)
Generation of
goes to graphite. This humble element, cutting C02 content by 90%. That’s likely
better known to many from No. 2 pencils, to cost a lot more than the Chinese model,
is the basis of the anode, or negative pole, Kavanagh predicts.
of EV batteries, accounting for up to half Graphite prices have actually fallen
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
Business Leaders
of their weight. More than 90% of anode- lately as China ramped up synthetic pro-
ready graphite is produced in China. duction while its economic troubles damp-
Beijing called attention to this fact on ened domestic EV demand, says Kien
Oct. 20, a few days after the U.S. ratcheted Huynh, chief commercial officer at Alkemy
up controls on semiconductor exports to Capital Investments, which focuses on
China. Graphite sales from China will energy-transition metals. “My response
require a license as of Dec. 1. to this news is the Chinese are trying to
Investing in Education, a program from Barron’s Group, President Xi Jinping’s government return some pricing power,” he says.
provides students with complimentary access to Barron’s
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
slapped similar restrictions this summer China needs to consider that past trade
on two rare-earth metals common in elec- weaponizations have produced a response,
and MarketWatch digital content and experiential tronics manufacturing, gallium and ger- eventually, says Marko Papic, chief strate-
learning resources thanks to our donors’ involvement manium. Gallium prices have jumped by gist at the Clocktower Group. Beijing cur-
half since then, data provider Argus re- tailed rare-earth exports to Japan over a
at more than 100 colleges, universities, and high ports. A graphite squeeze could have a territorial dispute for a few months in
schools nationwide. stronger impact still, says Ross Gregory, 2010. Since then, its share of rare-earth
a partner at Korea-based consultant New production has slumped from 90% to 70%
Electric Partners. “Rare earths was a flesh as customers devised alternatives.
If you would like to promote financial proficiency and wound,” he says. “Graphite would cause An all-out graphite squeeze would also
philanthropically support a school of your choice, some internal bleeding.” affect a range of basic industries that use
Graphite can either be mined or derived the element, with blowback for China’s
please get in touch with [email protected] synthetically from petrochemicals. Syn- already struggling economy. Instead, Bei-
to learn more on how to get involved. thetic production is more common and jing will look to “pick and choose who
theoretically easier to replicate. But the wins and loses” from access to its graphite,
pollution and carbon footprint involved Papic thinks.
can negate the underlying purpose of go- No prize for guessing who the intended
ing green. “You’ll never see China’s huge losers could be. “This could severely affect
blast furnaces in Western countries be- U.S. auto makers as they shift from inter-
cause of the environmental impact,” says nal combustion to EVs,” Gregory says.
Tom Kavanagh, the editor of Argus Battery That’s a less-than-ideal backdrop for
Materials. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who
Graphite reserves are spread more landed in Washington on Thursday.
evenly around the globe, with Brazil “Neither side is interested in funda-
and Turkey among the leaders. China mentally changing their own behavior for
accounts for 80% of mine production, a ‘tech peace,’ ” says Scott Kennedy, senior
however. Virtually all of the rest heads to advisor in Chinese economics at the Center
© 2023 Barron’s Group & Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 2EIIE6120 China for processing. Competing projects for Strategic and International Studies. B
October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 37
T
162
he world is politically and eco- Eli Lilly’s stock is trading in an interest- 18
137
nomically combustible, but most ing technical pattern. Shares have curled 112
people probably agree on this: lower after an historic rally, and appear to 87
You can never be too thin, or be poised to test technical support. The 11 62
too rich. stock has done this a few times in the past, N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
Almost everyone, everywhere, would and each time investors have taken advan- Daily Values Source: CBOE Source: McMillan Analysis Corp.
like to lose 10 pounds and make more tage of the weakness.
money. That health and wealth statement The key difference between now and
seems glib at a time when the world is dan- then is that the macro-market picture is SPX Skew NDX Skew
gerously chaotic, but it has an enduring dramatically different. So, anyone who Implied volatility % Implied volatility %
quality that withstands even the current considers the Eli Lilly trade is ultimately 13% 11%
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
fears about the world. Our early Septem- expressing a view that the obesity drug 12
ber observation that the world was experi- thesis is so robust that it can withstand 10
11
encing a rare “plastic moment” in human whatever struggles emerge in the broad 9
affairs has unfortunately proved to be true. market. 10
Since then, stocks have plunged and Eli Lilly has stock specific risks, of 9 8
the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, has course. Shares are up some 53% this year, 8
7
surged as fears abound that the Middle sharply outperforming the stock market.
7
East’s problems could trigger World War The stock is trading at an extreme earnings 6
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
6
III. multiple, which will be tested when Eli Lilly
If that happens, and the world order reports third-quarter earnings on Nov. 2. 5 5
that was established after WWII breaks, The company’s earnings report, and espe- N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
chaos will likely envelope the markets. cially any comments about what investors Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy Source: Credit Suisse Equity Derivatives Strategy
But, even then, people will likely still agree can expect in the future, will undoubtedly Skew indicates whether the options market expects a stock-market advance or decline. It measures the difference between the implied
volatility of puts and calls that are 10% out of the money and expire in three months. Higher readings are bearish.
that you can never be too rich or too thin. test investor enthusiasm for obesity drugs.
The caveat to all that, of course, is that During the past 52 weeks, Eli Lilly’s
widespread famine or a nuclear disaster stock has ranged from $309.20 to $629.97. Week’s Most Active
does not emerge from the current conflicts. Despite the stock-specific risks, the Eli Company Symbol Tot Vol Calls Puts Avg Tot Vol IV %ile Ratio
Anyone who agrees with the rich-thin Lilly cash-secured put trade is a reason- Textainer TGH 8111 5344 2767 188 0 43.1
CEL-SCI CVM 8861 6308 2553 532 98 16.7
thesis can try monetizing the idea by sell- able wager for investors who are having VNET VNET 49012 4627 44385 3956 93 12.4
ing cash-secured puts on Eli Lilly (ticker: a hard time sitting still as the world TransUnion TRU 16156 5095 11061 1540 85 10.5
LLY). convulses. Endeavor EDR 92839 86445 6394 9396 36 9.9
Mattel MAT 61755 48297 13458 7012 30 8.8
The pharmaceutical company’s Moun- We continue to believe, as averred in Calix CALX 14275 10326 3949 1700 14 8.4
jaro diabetes drug is expected to soon be recent weeks, that there is great merit in BioVie BIVI 5582 5020 562 708 100 7.9
approved to treat obesity. Some analysts watching global affairs from the safety of American Electric Power AEP 70600 68539 2061 10100 89 7.0
Greenbrier Companies GBX 5785 2044 3741 824 17 7.0
are so excited about the prospects that they high-yielding bonds without increasing
ImmunityBio IBRX 21137 11418 9719 3372 80 6.3
are sharply raising Eli Lilly’s stock price equity risk. But we know that many inves- Netgear NTGR 16421 11835 4586 2748 81 6.0
targets in anticipation of extraordinary tors are struggling to be patient, just as Stride LRN 16647 11099 5548 2844 1 5.9
earnings growth. many people struggle to exercise and eat Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO 94080 15643 78437 16288 56 5.8
Mr. Cooper COOP 10847 8805 2042 1968 12 5.5
With Eli Lilly’s stock at $560.48, inves- well in a culture that favors easy solutions Spotify Technology SPOT 157145 85591 71554 28888 34 5.4
tors could sell the November $500 put for and constant motion. Vertiv VRT 203152 73295 129857 40176 72 5.1
about $5.10. If the stock is above the strike It is perhaps better to exercise, eat well, Celestica CLS 39708 28412 11296 8052 80 4.9
take-Two Interactive TTWO 88491 76392 12099 18024 94 4.9
price at expiration, investors can keep the and drink less alcohol, but many doctors Pentair PNR 20076 18293 1783 4228 68 4.7
put premium. complain that patients often prefer to pop
If the stock price falls below the strike pills or get shots rather than do the hard This table of the most active options this week, as compared to average weekly activity – not just raw volume. The idea is that the unusually heavy trading in these options might be a predictor of
corporate activity – takeovers, earnings surprises, earnings pre-announcements, biotech FDA hearings or drug trial result announcements, and so forth. Dividend arbitrage has been eliminated. In
price, investors must buy the stock at an work. Pharmaceutical treatments for obe- short, this list attempts to identify where heavy speculation is taking place. These options are likely to be expensive in comparison to their usual pricing levels. Furthermore, many of these
situations may be rumor-driven. Most rumors do not prove to be true, so one should be aware of these increased risks if trading in these names
effective price of $494.90 (strike less pre- sity is thus potentially huge. B Ratio is the Tot Vol divided by Avg Tot Vol. IV %ile is how expensive the options are on a scale from 0 to 100. Source: McMillan Analysis
38 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
IN SIDE SC OOP
Southwest Gas shares are down POWER PLAY
about 8% so far this year.
Increases in
VF Activist
Holdings Sees Stock
Frontier’s Largest Investor Algonquin Power &
Utilities (AQN) Doubling
Keeps Buying Up Stock
Starboard Value raised its inter-
est in the Canada-based electricity
utility to 60,939,000 shares. Star- BY CARLETON ENGLISH
N
board bought 7,393,000 Algonquin
Power shares at prices ranging orth Face parent VF
from $5.30 to $7.56 each from Aug. Corp will face extra
BY ED LIN Ares Management has been a 30 through Oct. 18. Following the scrutiny when it posts
F
steady buyer of Frontier stock since fresh investment, Starboard holds fiscal-second-quarter
rontier Communications March. So far this year, It has paid 8.8% of Algonquin Power’s trad- earnings on Monday.
stock has lost about a third more than $75 million for 3.7 million able stock. In July, Starboard ad- While North Face
of its value so far this year, shares, an average price of $20.31 Frontier Communi- dressed a letter to Algonquin’s jackets are ubiquitous
but the communications each. Ares’ latest purchase was on cations stock has board and management stating on the streets and on the slopes, VF
company’s largest investor Oct. 18, when it paid $2.8 million for slid in 2023. Its they should seek a sale of Algon- stock (ticker: VFC) has plunged
continues to buy up shares. 150,000 shares, an average price of largest investor, quin’s renewable-energy unit, with about 75% over the past two years.
Frontier stock (ticker: $18.93 each. According to a form it Ares Management, proceeds channeled toward debt That underperformance has made
FYBR) is off its lows so far in 2023, filed with the Securities and Exchange bought more than reduction and repurchases. Star- the apparel maker a target of two
but it has struggled to build upward Commission, Ares now owns 38.9 $75 million worth board also feels that Algonquin activist investors, Legion Partners
momentum. Frontier emerged from million Frontier shares. It remains of stock since owns a “hidden gem” in its water and Engaged Capital.
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
bankruptcy in 2021, focused on con- Frontier’s largest shareholder with March. utility subsidiary, as such utilities Legion Partners declined to dis-
verting its legacy telecom network to a stake of nearly 16%, according to “trade at massive premiums” to cuss its VF investment. Engaged
modern fiberoptics. But the stock es- S&P Global Market Intelligence. either electric or gas counterparts. discussed its VF Corp stake in a
sentially traded sideways until this Ares didn’t immediately respond Given that, Algonquin should trade 26-page presentation earlier this
year, when a decisive slide set in. With to a request for comment. at higher multiples over rivals that month. Engaged is encouraged by
shares in the red, Barron’s recom- In response to Jana’s investment, don’t possess water utilities. If that recent management changes at the
mended buying Frontier stock in July. Frontier has said that its board and premium doesn’t materialize, Al- company, and would like to see VF
This script changed earlier this management “are focused on driving gonquin can sell its water utility, cut costs by $300 million, divest
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
month, when activist investor Jana long-term value for our shareholders, providing additional liquidity to noncore assets, and make changes
Partners disclosed that it had invested employees, and customers and con- expand proposed repurchases. to the board. With these changes,
in Frontier, and planned to push for tinue to take actions that enable us Shares have lost about a quarter Engaged believes that VF stock
the sale of the company. to deliver on this objective.” B of their value in 2023. could trade in the mid-$40s within
three years, more than double
Nano Dimension (NNDM) recent trading levels.
Anson Funds Management Expectations for VF’s quarterly
acquired 2,002,000 American earnings have been tempered. The
W I N N E R S & LO S E R S
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NYSE Biggest % Movers NYSE Most Active NYSE American Most Active Nasdaq Most Active
Winners Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders Volume Percentage Leaders
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change Name (Sym) Volume %Chg. Close Change
Textainer(TGH) 15537 49.17 +15.02 +44.0 SDCLEDGEAcqn(SEDA) 3222 2656.6 10.72 +0.10 SkyHarbour(SKYH) 365 293.8 5.76 –1.49 Vitru(VTRU) 1365 1099.1 12.64 –1.51
Endeavor(EDR) 45711 22.85 +4.88 +27.2 Textainer(TGH) 15537 1816.3 49.17 +15.02 QuantumFin(QFTA) 165 147.8 10.71 –0.01 Pwr&Digital II A(XPDB) 536 922.9 10.68 +0.01
ArdaghMetalPkg(AMBP) 15275 3.25 +0.63 +24.0 BatteryFutureA(BFAC) 5689 1298.6 10.84 +0.01 M-tronInds(MPTI) 249 116.5 21.09 –5.86 AuroraTechA(ATAK) 401 917.3 10.93 +0.02
CustomersBancorp(CUBI) 1819 39.76 +7.65 +23.8 BlackMountainA(BMAC) 2320 1221.2 10.65 –0.04 ImperialOil(IMO) 3351 51.9 57.65 –2.16 AlphaTimeAcqn(ATMC) 502 871.0 10.69 +0.02
Stride(LRN) 10715 54.44 +9.84 +22.1 EngageSmart(ESMT) 26952 750.9 22.68 +2.48 Espey(ESP) 43 45.1 15.70 +0.44 EvergreenA(EVGR) 480 786.4 11.05 +0.03
WeWork(WE) 10981 2.44 +0.39 +19.0 NaborsEnerA(NETC) 474 627.1 10.92 –0.07 ParkNational(PRK) 279 29.0 100.12 +6.52 IntegralAcqn1(INTE) 465 637.8 10.72 –0.01
GOL Linhas(GOL) 3531 3.13 +0.48 +18.1 Hess(HES) 48275 463.1 143.29 –19.73 ViveonHealth(VHAQ) 57 17.8 11.38 +0.01 OmniLitAcqnA(OLIT) 260 583.8 10.50 –0.17
FTI Consulting(FCN) 1691 215.95 +29.75 +16.0 TransUnion(TRU) 33156 443.2 43.60 –21.52 UraniumEner(UEC) 42974 13.4 5.50 +0.18 InvestcorpEur I A(IVCB) 277 550.7 10.93 +0.02
RentokilInit(RTO) 5284 407.2 25.48 –2.40 BluerockHomes(BHM) 73 11.2 13.42 +0.68 HollysysAuto(HOLI) 8797 524.7 20.42 +1.21
Losers Stride(LRN) 10715 396.4 54.44 +9.84 GranTierraEner(GTE) 1790 10.0 6.18 –0.37 NerdWallet(NRDS) 10110 443.1 9.34 +2.11
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
BarnesGroup(B) 4864 370.2 20.14 –12.45 EVI Industries(EVI) 118 8.2 25.04 –0.76 CalumetSpecialty(CLMT) 2055 413.5 13.01 –3.72
Li-Cycle(LICY) 50628 1.24 –1.03 –45.4 InterContinentl(IHG) 4008 343.2 72.40 +0.62 FriedmanInds(FRD) 172 5.1 9.71 –1.49 Silicom(SILC) 913 404.1 15.00 –7.77
BarnesGroup(B) 4864 20.14 –12.45 –38.2 Bally's(BALY) 5812 267.4 8.65 –0.15 EvansBancorp(EVBN) 47 3.1 25.70 –1.46 SpringValleyII A(SVII) 505 391.2 10.74 0.00
TransUnion(TRU) 33156 43.60 –21.52 –33.0 TrueBlue(TBI) 4083 262.6 10.82 –3.09 SilverCrestMetals(SILV) 6932 –0.1 5.03 –0.02 CapStarFin(CSTR) 848 376.2 15.07 +0.44
ChartIndustries(GTLS) 5918 110.12 –40.19 –26.7 Calix(CALX) 10676 261.5 32.71 –10.55 MAG Silver(MAG) 2840 –5.3 10.68 –0.40 BurTechAcqnA(BRKH) 240 323.6 10.58 +0.02
Calix(CALX) 10676 32.71 –10.55 –24.4 BostonOmaha(BOC) 1756 241.9 14.05 –0.84 CoreMoldingTech(CMT) 382 –8.7 25.76 –1.75 TMT Acqn(TMTC) 107 301.7 10.48 +0.03
Heliogen(HLGN) 218 1.67 –0.51 –23.4 Smith&Nephew(SNN) 16171 241.4 21.64 –0.78 MastechDigital(MHH) 34 –10.9 8.90 +0.05 RevolutionMed(RVMD) 35036 295.3 18.61 –9.36
TrueBlue(TBI) 4083 10.82 –3.09 –22.2 ChurchillVI A(CCVI) 1446 239.9 10.47 +0.02 BattalionOil(BATL) 76 –11.0 6.20 +0.08 AmbrxBio(AMAM) 12465 281.1 10.00 +1.57
Aaron's(AAN) 4023 7.22 –2.06 –22.2 EnovaIntl(ENVA) 2994 231.1 39.83 –6.36 TompkinsFin(TMP) 212 –13.9 49.32 +0.83 Alphatec(ATEC) 23597 280.1 9.55 –2.70
BrookfieldInfr(BIP) 8630 219.5 21.39 –1.83 Southland(SLND) 132 –16.5 5.99 –0.20 SimulationsPlus(SLP) 1431 252.6 33.96 –5.34
NYSE American Biggest % Movers By Share Volume By Share Volume By Share Volume
Winners Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg. FordMotor(F) 442091 9.96 –1.68 –14.4 AultAlliance(AULT) 225037 0.14 +0.00 +1.8 Tesla(TSLA) 585623 207.30 –4.69 –2.2
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Northann(NCL) 708 9.12 +3.12 +52.0 BankofAmerica(BAC) 286244 25.17 –1.14 –4.3 Tellurian(TELL) 143632 0.65 –0.10 –12.8 Amazon.com(AMZN) 394604 127.74 +2.57 +2.1
UnvlSecInstr(UUU) 1326 3.71 +0.77 +26.2 Snap(SNAP) 270900 9.30 –0.14 –1.5 B2Gold(BTG) 53979 3.25 –0.09 –2.7 LumiraDx(LMDX) 373712 0.12 +0.03 +34.5
HNR Acqn(HNRA) 52 12.12 +1.35 +12.5 AT&T(T) 239925 14.82 –0.56 –3.6 Cel-Sci(CVM) 47507 1.21 +0.14 +13.1 Intel(INTC) 292606 35.54 +0.62 +1.8
Amcon(DIT) 2 195.99 +15.49 +8.6 PalantirTech(PLTR) 231550 15.07 –1.04 –6.5 UraniumEner(UEC) 42974 5.50 +0.18 +3.4 Apple(AAPL) 285924 168.22 –4.66 –2.7
ParkNational(PRK) 279 100.12 +6.52 +7.0 Verizon(VZ) 182456 33.44 +1.87 +5.9 DenisonMines(DNN) 34280 1.53 +0.02 +1.3 AdvMicroDevices(AMD) 258507 96.43 –5.38 –5.3
AcmeUnited(ACU) 35 30.40 +1.96 +6.9 Kenvue(KVUE) 168458 18.21 –1.53 –7.8 CamberEnergy(CEI) 23801 0.37 –0.03 –6.9 Alphabet A(GOOGL) 256424 122.17 –13.43 –9.9
TrioTech(TRT) 132 6.87 +0.43 +6.7 NIO(NIO) 165692 7.44 –0.14 –1.8 Cybin(CYBN) 20017 0.62 +0.13 +27.6 Nikola(NKLA) 248968 1.03 +0.01 +1.0
MobileInfr(BEEP) 121 3.70 +0.20 +5.7 Carnival(CCL) 150442 11.13 +0.10 +0.9 Globalstar(GSAT) 16578 1.30 +0.02 +1.6 NVIDIA(NVDA) 223155 405.00 –8.87 –2.1
Vale(VALE) 148165 13.49 +1.08 +8.7 Zomedica(ZOM) 15438 0.16 –0.01 –6.3 AmerAirlines(AAL) 205261 10.92 –0.16 –1.4
Losers Pfizer(PFE) 146204 30.11 –0.54 –1.8 NewGold(NGD) 15217 1.20 +0.13 +12.1 Microsoft(MSFT) 178225 329.81 +3.14 +1.0
Name (Sym) Volume Close Change %Chg.
Newmont(NEM) 121909 38.97 +0.17 +0.4 MatinasBioPharma(MTNB) 14379 0.22 –0.05 –19.1 Alphabet C(GOOG) 177146 123.40 –13.34 –9.8
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
Neuraxis(NRXS) 262 2.10 –0.74 –26.1 Nokia(NOK) 119323 3.25 +0.07 +2.2 UniqueFabricating(UFAB) 12745 0.23 +0.02 +10.6 SoFiTech(SOFI) 176096 6.87 –0.50 –6.8
M-tronInds(MPTI) 249 21.09 –5.86 –21.7 GeneralMotors(GM) 116933 27.22 –2.44 –8.2 GoldenMinerals(AUMN) 11742 1.10 –0.80 –42.1 MetaPlatforms(META) 175738 296.73 –11.92 –3.9
MaiaBiotech(MAIA) 5918 1.89 –0.49 –20.6 NuHoldings(NU) 115950 8.01 –0.16 –2.0 GeniusGroup(GNS) 11001 0.69 –0.16 –18.8 CanopyGrowth(CGC) 159283 0.51 –0.01 –1.1
SkyHarbour(SKYH) 365 5.76 –1.49 –20.6 RTX(RTX) 107316 79.16 +6.61 +9.1 RingEnergy(REI) 10366 1.80 0.00 0.0 Comcast A(CMCSA) 141423 39.64 –3.22 –7.5
Polished.com(POL) 417 1.87 –0.44 –18.9 PetroleoBrasil(PBR) 101663 15.33 –0.88 –5.4 Senseonics(SENS) 10009 0.48 –0.03 –5.5 LianBio(LIAN) 141405 3.90 +2.48 +174.6
PalatinTech(PTN) 840 1.96 –0.44 –18.3 BarrickGold(GOLD) 100728 16.33 –0.56 –3.3 EnergyFuels(UUUU) 9645 7.52 –0.16 –2.1 Rivian(RIVN) 127672 16.01 –0.71 –4.2
AeonBiopharma(AEON) 60 4.71 –1.04 –18.1 ExxonMobil(XOM) 98819 105.55 –5.53 –5.0 Ur-Energy(URG) 9090 1.50 –0.05 –3.2 Lucid(LCID) 121948 4.04 –0.24 –5.6
BM Tech(BMTX) 74 2.33 –0.45 –16.2 Citigroup(C) 98496 38.24 –1.44 –3.6 AgEagleAerial(UAVS) 8183 0.11 +0.00 +1.8 Grab(GRAB) 101219 3.03 –0.24 –7.3
Includes Common shares only. All figures reflect activity for the most-recent five-day trading week. Share volume figures are expressed in thousands. Volume percentage leaders exclude stocks with average daily volume of fewer than 5,000 shares or priced under $5.
Average volume is based on 65 trading days. Volume figures do not reflect extended trading hours. a-Stock has not been in existence or not been traded for 65 consecutive sessions. S-Stock split or stock dividend amounting to 10% or more. X-Ex-dividend
October 30, 2023 BARRON’S 41
MARKET VIEW
This commentary was issued recently by
money managers, research firms, and market
newsletter writers. Edited by Barron’s staff.
have been met with at best lukewarm roughly $3.3 billion from stock and bond an inevitable recession is off the table. The and that remains the nearest deadline to
enthusiasm. ETFs. It was the first week with outflows alternative take is that the burst of growth keep in mind. Johnson has outlined a plan to
In any event, should China prove to be for stocks and bonds together since the in Q3 is unsustainable, largely a function begin voting on the appropriations packages
a catalyst for the stabilization of global week ended on Aug. 18. Prior to that, it of one-off supports that will quickly fade, as soon as possible, but legislating is compli-
equity markets, we would likely see a sig- last occurred as the market bottomed in and that while perhaps less probable than cated, and we will need to see action before
nificant rotation within and between mar- September 2022. had seemed to be the case, recession is we can dismiss shutdown risk. Many have
kets. Non-U.S. markets would outperform Outflows from both stocks and bonds still a possibility in the not-too-distant suggested that Johnson securing all GOP
the U.S., cyclicals and industrials would in the same week is an infrequent, but not future. votes for the speakership suggests there will
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
outperform tech, and yield curves would unusual occurrence. In the past decade, We lean more toward the latter than be a deal on a government funding measure,
likely steepen further. it has happened a little more than two the former interpretation. but that view lacks an understanding of
—Louis-Vincent Gave times per year on average and has func- As anyone who knows the breed can House GOP demands on top-line spending
tioned as an indication of excessive attest, greyhounds can run really, really figures, the political complexity of Ukraine
pessimism. fast. They just can’t run really, really fast funding demands, and/or an appreciation
Hedging With Bitcoin, Gold —Matt Bauer for very long. In that sense, we see the of timelines on Capitol Hill. That said, the
The Lead-Lag Report economy as having been more of a market should look past a government shut-
Lead-Lag Publishing sprinter than a marathon runner in Q3, down, as the risk of default, attached to the
leadlagreport.com Q3 GDP: As Good as It Gets? and the payback for that effort will come debt ceiling, isn’t on the table for this upcom-
Economic Update in the Q4 data. ing fight.
Oct. 27: For the most part, we’ve seen Regions Financial —Richard F. Moody —Isaac Boltansky, Isabel Bandoroff
Bitcoin act more like a growth stock over regions.com
the past several years under more normal
market conditions. The rally we’ve seen in
October, however, looks like something
Oct. 26: The initial estimate from the Bu-
reau of Economic Analysis puts Q3 real
Market Sentiment
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model Last –0.10 Euphoria Neutral Panic
different. There’s a fair amount of noise gross-domestic-product growth at an an- 0.6
around the potential approval of a Bitcoin nual rate of 4.9%, slightly ahead of our
exchange-traded fund by the SEC right above-consensus forecast of 4.8% growth. 0.4
Barron's 50-Stock Average 61 Dow Jones Averages 57 Money Rates, U.S. & Foreign 59 Vital Signs 34
DATA
Cash Track 55 Dow Jones Per Share Values 58 Mutual Funds 55 Week In Stocks 58
Charting the Market 39 Exchange Traded Portfolios 51 N.Y. Stock Exchange 42 Weekly Bond Statistics 60
Coming Earnings 59 Federal Reserve Data Bank 60 Nasdaq National Market 46 Winners & Losers Stocks 40
Conference Call Calendar 60 Foreign Exchange 59 New Corporate Listings 58
Consensus Estimate 59 Gold & Silver Prices 60 New Highs & Lows 61
Delta Tactical Sentiment 59 Gold Mining Index 60 NYSE Half-Hourly Volume 58
Distributions & Offerings 58 Indexes P/Es & Yields 58 Other Market Indexes 57
Dividend Boosts - Reductions 60 Initial Public Offerings 58 Pulse of the Economy 59
Dividend Ex-Payment Dates 60 Investor Sentiment Readings 58 Stock Splits - Special Dividends 60
DJ Averages 57 Key Foreign Market Indexes 50 Stock Volume 58
Contact Us
DJ U.S. Total Market Industry Groups 59 Market Lab 57 Trading Diary 57 For queries, email us at
Statistics from October 23-27, 2023 [email protected]
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE LIST - NEW HIGHS - NEW LOWS
–52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div –52-Week– Tick Div
High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt. High Low Name Sym Yld P/E Last Chg. Amt.
70.63 27.92 Alteryx AYX ... dd 31.46 –3.48 ... 18.22 13.66 AppleHospREIT APLE 6.4 21 14.93 –0.59 .08 2750.00 2277.88 AutoZone AZO ... 18 2446.17 –42.38 ... 467.95 271.00 Bio-RadLab B BIO.B ... dd 271.00 –46.26 ...
A
7.06 2.01 AlticeUSA ATUS ... dd 2.71 –0.24 ... 164.82 116.94 AppliedIndlTechs AIT .9 16 150.75 –3.11 .35 198.66 153.07 Avalonbay AVB 4.1 25 162.59 –7.02 1.65 42.51 35.83 Birkenstock BIRK ... 41 38.07 –0.63 ...
63.88 41.17 AAR AIR ... 30 56.94 –1.20 ... 48.11 39.07 Altria MO 10.0 8 39.30 –3.41 .98 133.79 92.55 Aptargroup ATR 1.4 29 121.17 –1.05 .41 44.77 27.46 Avangrid AGR 6.1 21 29.07 –1.52 .44 73.98 46.43 BlackHills BKH 5.2 13 48.30 –0.60.625
49.58 37.61 ABMIndustries ABM 2.2 11 39.23 –1.06 .22 10.17 4.08 AltusPower AMPS ... dd 4.84 –0.19 ... 124.88 85.55 Aptiv APTV ... 26 86.01 –5.99 ... 31.99 17.24 AvanosMedical AVNS ... dd 17.81 –0.46 ... 11.79 10.06 BlackMountainA BMAC ... 96 10.65 –0.04 ...
6.62 4.30 ACCO Brands ACCO 6.1 dd 4.89 –0.15.075 17.75 11.26 AmbacFin AMBC ... 1 11.75 +0.22 ... 33.01 23.55 Aramark ARMK 1.6 13 26.67 +0.34 .11 25.25 17.60 Avantor AVTR ... 33 17.83 –2.71 ... 5.75 3.17 BlackBerry BB ... dd 3.41 +0.04 ...
10.72 6.62 AcresCmclRlty ACR ... dd 7.38 +0.22 ... 3.24 2.40 Ambev ABEV 4.5 14 2.44 –0.02.1457 17.74 10.10 ArborRealty ABR 13.1 7 12.60 –1.40 .43 195.95 158.93 AveryDennison AVY 1.9 29 170.54 –3.33 .81 785.65 596.18 BlackRock BLK 3.3 17 598.08 –16.755.00
5.75 0.63 ADC Therap ADCT ... dd .70 –0.13 ... 12.78 8.45 Amcor AMCR 5.7 12 8.66 +0.15.1225 32.49 21.14 ArcelorMittal MT ... 4 22.14 +0.47 ... 44.74 27.65 Avient AVNT 3.3 cc 31.18 –0.85.2575 2.37 1.10 BlackSkyTech BKSY ... dd 1.28 ... ...
10.10 4.89 ADT ADT 2.5 dd 5.69 –0.56.035 31.00 15.79 AmerantBncpA AMTB 2.0 9 17.63 +0.41 .09 175.10 102.42 ArchResources ARCH .7 4 152.92 +3.18 .88 45.29 30.53 Avista AVA 5.8 17 31.83 +0.33 .46 116.78 71.72 Blackstone BX 3.7 54 89.61 –4.81 .80
92.16 72.48 AECOM ACM 1.0 79 74.81 –3.17 .18 92.44 69.71 Ameren AEE 3.3 18 75.38 –0.95 .63 7.49 1.62 ArcherAviation ACHR ... dd 4.45 –0.42 ... 33.68 22.12 AxaltaCoating AXTA ... 25 25.42 –0.39 ... 25.82 16.61 BlackstoneMtg BXMT12.8 17 19.45 –0.69 .62
29.89 11.43 AES AES 4.5 dd 14.75 +0.92.1659 68.75 25.49 Ameresco AMRC ... 28 27.26 –2.28 ... 98.28 69.31 ADM ADM 2.6 10 70.04 –2.81 .45 51.46 33.15 AxosFinancial AX ... 6 34.85 –1.00 ... 2.57 0.53 BlendLabs BLND ... dd 1.20 –0.03 ...
82.03 60.20 Aflac AFL 2.2 10 76.49 –1.09 .42 23.07 16.00 AmericaMovil AMX 2.1 11 16.71 –0.12.1967 13.79 7.24 Archrock AROC 5.0 30 12.51 –0.20 .155 13.87 3.82 Azul AZUL ... dd 7.59 +0.25 ... 44.83 28.83 BlockHR HRB 3.1 11 40.91 –2.34 .32
145.53 109.81 AGCO AGCO 1.0 7 110.64 –2.56 .29 29.73 16.04 AmericanAssets AAT 7.5 24 17.71 –0.27 .33 11.47 6.73 ArcosDorados ARCO 2.1 11 9.12 –0.11 .04 89.97 38.91 Block SQ ... dd 40.02 –3.96 ...
B
7.05 4.58 AG Mortgage MITT16.3 9 4.90 –0.06 .08 11.19 6.61 AmericanAxle AXL ... 19 6.83 –0.25 ... 79.38 52.04 Arcosa ACA .3 12 66.97 –1.64 .05 26.55 9.68 BloomEnergy BE ... dd 9.78 –1.53 ...
25.80 3.60 a.k.a.Brands AKA ... dd 7.28 –0.55 ... 18.41 9.95 AmerEagle AEO 2.3 17 17.39 –0.06 .10 36.13 14.33 ArcusBiosci RCUS ... dd 14.33 –1.79 ... 2.29 0.99 Bark BARK ... dd 1.03 ... ... 14.32 11.31 BlueOwlCapital OBDC10.1 6 13.03 –0.36 .33
80.74 7.05 AMC Ent AMC ... dd 9.15 +0.07 ... 54.44 28.05 AmerEquity AEL .7 10 52.77 –0.38 .36 5.90 2.57 ArdaghMetalPkg AMBP12.3 28 3.25 +0.63 .10 16.68 7.20 B&G Foods BGS 8.8 dd 8.61 +0.14 .19 14.04 9.41 BlueOwlCapital OWL 4.6 cc 12.23 –0.14 .14
129.04 72.10 AMN Healthcare AMN ... 10 75.70 +1.95 ... 182.15 138.77 AmerExpress AXP 1.7 13 141.31 –0.26 .60 19.41 11.59 ArdmoreShipping ASC 5.4 3 13.99 +0.86 .19 48.38 36.15 BCE BCE 7.9 19 36.65 –0.28.7243 40.93 16.75 BluegreenVac BVH 2.5 9 31.65 –0.57 .20
37.72 4.17 AMTD Digital HKD ... 19 4.19 –0.41 ... 150.98 105.22 AmericanFin AFG 2.6 11 107.41 +0.43 .71 10.79 9.01 AresAcqnA AAC ... dd 9.75 –1.01 ... 3.72 1.68 BEST BEST ... dd 2.26 +0.13 ... 98.33 61.48 BlueLinx BXC ... 5 69.31 –2.05 ...
2.56 0.70 AMTD IDEA AMTD ... 1 .76 –0.36 ... 37.97 28.79 AmHomes4Rent AMH 2.8 32 31.49 –2.20 .22 10.37 10.10 AresAcqnII A AACT ... ... 10.29 +0.01 ... 16.02 8.85 BGSF BGSF 6.4 12 9.31 +0.01 .15 10.46 9.71 BluescapeOppsAcqn BOAC ... 45 10.03 +0.02 ...
11.20 10.19 AP Acqn A APCA ... 81 11.01 +0.01 ... 64.88 45.66 AIG AIG 2.4 10 59.53 +0.01 .36 12.75 7.52 AresCommRealEst ACRE14.8 dd 8.89 –0.35 .33 71.52 46.92 BHP Group BHP 5.9 11 57.19 +2.34 1.60 243.10 139.52 Boeing BA ... dd 179.69 –0.35 ...
3.87 2.35 ARC Document ARC 7.2 10 2.79 –0.15 .05 31.59 11.86 AmRltyInv ARL ... 1 12.01 –1.31 ... 112.15 66.04 AresMgmt ARES 3.1 62 100.84 –1.36 .77 139.50 68.30 BILL BILL ... dd 89.52 –11.48 ... 112.58 59.32 BoiseCascade BCC .9 6 92.97 +1.81 .20
9.03 4.97 ASE Tech ASX 5.7 13 7.48 –0.23.5714 100.51 75.20 AmerStWater AWR 2.2 25 77.56 +0.23 .43 47.80 32.98 Argan AGX 2.7 17 44.59 +0.07 .30 5.49 1.40 BitMining BTCM ... dd 2.76 –0.06 ... 104.91 50.20 BootBarn BOOT ... 13 69.46 –6.98 ...
97.80 63.27 ASGN ASGN ... 18 80.93 +2.35 ... 28.24 6.15 AmerStratInvt NYC ... dd 8.75 –0.41 ... 30.13 23.57 ArgoGroup ARGO 4.2 dd 29.82 +0.02 .31 80.41 60.33 BJ'sWholesale BJ ... 19 69.21 –0.06 ... 130.34 87.99 BoozAllen BAH 1.6 53 117.36 –4.49 .47
21.53 13.43 AT&T T 7.5 dd 14.82 –0.56.2775 235.57 154.58 AmerTowerREIT AMT 3.7 cc 171.99 +11.90 1.62 17.81 6.69 ArisWater ARIS 4.4 24 8.24 –0.10 .09 41.38 32.28 BP BP 3.9 6 38.64 –0.97.4362 47.05 31.35 BorgWarner BWA 1.2 9 36.68 –1.93 .17
47.92 25.39 ATI ATI ... 19 37.59 +2.01 ... 24.13 8.78 AmerVanguard AVD 1.3 24 9.32 –0.77 .03 198.70 108.91 AristaNetworks ANET ... 33 176.19 –9.92 ... 15.35 4.52 BP Prudhoe BPT 19.2 2 5.20 –0.43.2974 9.01 4.03 BorrDrilling BORR ... dd 6.15 –0.79 ...
162.59 114.25 AmerWaterWorks AWK 2.4 24 116.39 +0.59.7075 4.84 2.53 ArlingtonAsset AAIC ... 15 4.13 –0.16 ... 420.84 296.27 BostonBeer SAM ... 47 319.64 –49.84 ...
To reprint or license content, please contact Barron's reprints department at 800-843-0008 or www.djreprints.com
59.00 6.00 ATI PhysTherapy ATIP ... dd 7.32 –0.15 ... 8.27 2.51 BRC BRCC ... dd 2.60 –0.03 ...
48.89 30.90 ATS ATS ... 32 34.53 –0.92 ... 4.39 0.93 AmericanWell AMWL ... dd 1.08 –0.01 ... 11.54 2.93 ArloTech ARLO ... dd 8.15 –0.55 ... 2.59 1.06 BRF BRFS ... dd 2.10 –0.02 ... 28.98 13.55 BostonOmaha BOC ... cc 14.05 –0.84 ...
19.79 10.04 A10Networks ATEN 2.2 18 10.80 –0.19 .06 33.90 23.56 AmericoldRealty COLD 3.5 dd 25.33 –1.51 .22 13.73 9.86 ArmadaHoffler AHH 7.9 19 9.91 –0.27 .195 22.37 16.07 BRT Apartments BRT 6.1 31 16.32 –0.66 .25 79.42 46.18 BostonProps BXP 7.5 12 52.42 –1.48 .98
63.99 50.97 AXIS Capital AXS 3.2 14 55.03 –1.16 .44 358.02 275.09 Ameriprise AMP 1.7 13 310.56 –1.63 1.35 33.38 13.57 ArmourResREIT ARR 35.1 dd 13.68 –1.58 .40 79.42 55.40 BWX Tech BWXT 1.2 30 74.01 –2.50 .23 55.38 40.93 BostonSci BSX ... 61 49.52 –0.53 ...
34.96 15.12 AZEK AZEK ... cc 25.21 –0.50 ... 164.75 125.00 Ametek AME .7 26 139.22 –2.35 .25 83.40 62.03 ArmstrongWorld AWI 1.5 15 73.00 +3.73 .28 6.83 2.31 Babcock&Wilcox BW ... dd 2.35 –0.35 ... 17.45 9.09 Bowlero BOWL ... 34 10.34 –0.85 ...
50.86 34.59 AZZ AZZ 1.5 17 46.46 +1.34 .17 4.74 1.24 AmnealPharm AMRX ... dd 3.77 +0.30 ... 147.42 98.24 ArrowElec ARW ... 6 111.80 –1.65 ... 170.86 103.93 BadgerMeter BMI .8 48 137.89 +0.95 .27 34.98 23.57 Box BOX ... cc 24.07 +0.02 ...
16.16 7.00 Aaron's AAN 6.9 25 7.22 –2.06 .125 4.00 2.15 Ampco-Pitt AP ... 36 2.74 +0.15 ... 42.97 28.02 ArtisanPtrsAsset APAM 6.9 11 32.23 –1.11 .61 2.87 0.94 Bakkt BKKT ... dd .94 –0.12 ... 73.00 52.42 BoydGaming BYD 1.2 8 54.56 –4.98 .16
115.83 89.67 AbbottLabs ABT 2.2 32 92.85 –3.93 .51 90.28 72.00 Amphenol APH 1.1 26 79.31 –0.55 .22 17.97 10.61 Artivion AORT ... dd 12.33 –0.81 ... 62.14 42.81 Ball BALL 1.7 19 47.06 +2.92 .20 58.20 44.56 Brady BRC 1.8 15 51.50 –1.39.235
168.11 130.96 AbbVie ABBV 4.3 38 138.93 –7.301.48 10.38 5.97 AmplifyEnergy AMPY ... 1 7.08 –0.12 ... 26.27 11.32 Asana ASAN ... dd 18.07 –0.29 ... 25.67 7.80 Bally's BALY ... dd 8.65 –0.15 ... 5.60 2.22 BraemarHtls BHR 7.8 dd 2.55 –0.17 .05
64.85 15.95 Abercrombie&Fitch ANF ... 28 58.72 –2.18 ... 12.25 2.60 AmpriusTech AMPX ... dd 2.80 –0.42 ... 256.39 149.38 AsburyAutomotive ABG ... 4 186.56 –18.15 ... 18.26 9.72 BancCalifornia BANC 3.7 6 10.82 –0.56 .10 7.25 3.42 BrandywineRealty BDN 16.0 dd 3.75 –0.17 .15
16.36 12.37 AcadiaRealty AKR 5.4 dd 13.43 –0.34 .18 19.97 10.55 Amrep AXR ... 4 16.70 +0.09 ... 8.43 1.92 AshfordHosp AHT ... dd 1.97 –0.25 ... 6.60 2.61 BancoBBVA BBAR .0 3 4.15 +0.16.064 6.29 4.49 BrasilAgro LND 12.8 9 4.84 –0.91 .621
12.05 7.26 AccelEnt ACEL ... 16 9.74 –0.39 ... 10.92 10.11 AndrettiAcqnA WNNR ... 77 10.79 +0.01 ... 114.36 74.48 Ashland ASH 2.0 dd 75.31 –1.39.385 8.28 5.03 BancoBilbaoViz BBVA 5.3 6 7.79 –0.16.1685 13.77 6.26 Braskem BAK ... dd 7.00 –0.23 ...
330.44 242.80 Accenture ACN 1.8 27 290.04 –6.96 1.29 11.02 4.43 AngelOakMtgREIT AOMR15.4 dd 8.30 +0.30 .32 14.44 5.33 AspenAerogels ASPN ... dd 7.52 +0.62 ... 3.31 2.12 BancoBradesco BBDO 5.4 9 2.51 ....0034 44.52 23.19 BreadFinancial BFH 3.1 2 26.77 –1.88 .21
10.40 9.75 AcropolisInfrA ACRO ... 60 10.32 +0.03 ... 30.27 12.69 AngloGoldAsh AU 1.1 cc 19.18 –0.28.0337 33.00 19.50 AssetMarkFin AMK ... 16 23.18 –0.63 ... 23.50 17.72 BancodeChile BCH 8.3 7 19.64 +0.102.1466 16.40 6.99 BridgeInvt BRDG 9.6 dd 7.12 –0.46 .17
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
202.90 149.30 AcuityBrands AYI .3 15 158.31 –8.65 .13 67.09 48.69 AB InBev BUD 1.2 17 52.83 +0.26.8245 25.50 14.47 AssociatedBanc ASB 5.5 7 16.07 +0.59 .22 4.50 2.23 BancoItauChile ITCL 5.8 4 2.90 –0.05.1646 91.20 5.60 BrightHealth BHG ... dd 6.93 –0.48 ...
61.98 42.06 Acushnet GOLF 1.6 16 49.62 –2.27 .195 24.43 14.69 AnnalyCap NLY 17.7 dd 14.73 –1.51 .65 42.97 31.01 AssocCapital AC .6 40 33.69 –0.25 .10 24.65 14.96 Bladex BLX 4.7 6 21.27 –0.84 .25 98.87 59.55 BrightHorizons BFAM ... 64 72.18 –6.50 ...
11.98 6.95 Adecoagro AGRO 3.0 13 10.80 –0.17.1626 23.89 7.40 AnnovisBio ANVS ... dd 8.01 –0.57 ... 153.90 104.49 Assurant AIZ 1.9 23 146.04 +0.06 .70 28.07 12.38 BancoMacro BMA .0 3 19.43 +0.78.4262 3.44 0.81 BrightScholar BEDU ... ... 1.06 ... ...
47.50 31.96 Adient ADNT ... 28 33.61 –1.01 ... 12.75 9.56 AnteroMidstream AM 7.4 17 12.14 –0.35.225 67.13 45.21 AssuredGuaranty AGO 1.9 12 60.34 +0.37 .28 6.64 4.76 BancSanBrasil BSBR 4.6 ... 5.40 +0.27.0596 26.88 15.49 BrightSphere BSIG .3 9 15.60 –0.88 .01
50.70 33.59 AdtalemGlbEduc ATGE ... 22 49.98 +6.57 ... 40.19 19.91 AnteroResources AR ... 10 28.89 +0.92 ... 164.76 90.93 Atkore ATKR ... 7 123.22 –2.41 ... 21.81 13.82 BcoSantChile BSAC 5.4 13 17.48 +0.361.2511 7.96 5.20 BrightSpire BRSP14.8 dd 5.40 –0.16 .20
194.35 47.73 AdvanceAuto AAP 2.0 9 49.90 –1.30 .25 9.85 4.09 AnywhereRealEst HOUS ... dd 4.56 +0.29 ... 41.04 23.32 AtlUnionBkshs AUB 4.3 10 28.07 +0.26 .32 4.09 2.50 BancoSantander SAN 2.9 6 3.61 +0.01.0852 9.32 5.16 BrightView BV ... dd 6.66 –0.64 ...
134.94 75.02 AdvDrainageSys WMS .5 17 105.37 –3.94 .14 347.37 273.02 Aon AON .8 23 306.88 –7.24 .615 24.69 15.06 AtlasEnergy AESI 3.7 ... 18.94 –1.08 .05 30.89 21.55 BanColombia CIB 4.3 8 25.51 +0.10.852 77.47 52.63 Brink's BCO 1.3 28 65.71 –1.86 .22
44.57 26.77 AdvanSix ASIX 2.3 7 27.78 –0.20 .16 40.28 28.70 AptIncmREIT AIRC 6.3 14 28.72 –2.34 .45 125.28 101.00 AtmosEnergy ATO 2.8 18 106.12 –2.66 .74 38.60 24.96 BankofAmerica BAC 3.8 7 25.17 –1.14 .24 42.12 27.77 BrinkerIntl EAT ... 15 32.73 –0.25 ...
5.69 4.02 Aegon AEG 5.1 ... 4.71 +0.06.1528 8.93 5.75 ApartmtInv AIV ... dd 5.77 –0.55 ... 25.20 18.63 AtmusFiltration ATMU ... ... 18.79 –1.48 ... 38.31 22.93 BankofButterfield NTB 7.0 5 25.07 –1.17 .44 81.44 49.49 BristolMyers BMY 4.5 13 51.02 –5.44 .57
5.90 1.52 Aenza AENZ ... dd 2.18 +0.25 ... 29.57 15.76 APi Group APG ... 91 25.45 +0.15 ... 3.51 1.30 ATRenew RERE ... dd 1.51 ... ... 82.87 30.83 BankofHawaii BOH 5.8 10 48.55 +2.86 .70 0.17 0.08 BristolMyersRt CELG.RT ... ... .09 ... ...
69.50 49.58 AerCap AER ... 8 59.44 +1.29 ... 12.75 8.58 ApolloComRlEst ARI 15.0 12 9.33 –0.17 .35 38.91 25.81 Autohome ATHM 2.1 12 26.83 –0.59 .53 102.79 73.98 BankMontreal BMO 4.6 10 74.22 –3.301.1119 31.89 20.08 Bristow VTOL ... 70 26.14 –1.38 ...
2.38 0.50 AevaTech AEVA ... dd .51 –0.10 ... 93.18 53.53 ApolloGlbMgmt APO 2.1 38 80.35 –2.01 .43 103.99 73.66 Autoliv ALV 2.9 19 92.41 –4.08 .66 52.26 39.65 BankNY Mellon BK 4.0 10 41.63 –0.03 .42 42.36 28.92 BritishAmTob BTI 9.8 6 28.97 –0.85.7006
180.63 120.22 AffiliatedMgrs AMG .0 5 122.59 –1.26 .01 10.81 9.87 ApolloStratII A APGB ... 39 10.55 –0.04 ... 182.08 99.72 AutoNation AN ... 6 130.54 –3.16 ... 55.91 39.80 BankNovaScotia BNS 7.8 8 39.93 –1.40.7794 24.27 19.40 BrixmorProp BRX 5.2 17 19.89 –0.19 .26
160.26 100.08 AgilentTechs A .9 27 102.77 –6.46.225 40.22 15.83 BankUnited BKU 5.1 7 21.35 –0.47 .27 189.69 131.35 BroadridgeFinl BR 1.9 32 167.38 –5.81 .80
20.17 5.07 Agiliti AGTI ... cc 5.28 –0.31 ... 10.95 10.02 BanyanAcqnA BYN ... dd 10.58 –0.01 ... 18.54 13.68 Broadstone BNL 8.1 16 13.78 –0.27 .28
29.44 15.00 agilon health AGL ... dd 18.06 –1.28 ... 9.44 6.23 Barclays BCS 5.9 ... 6.24 –0.83.1398 5.07 2.27 BrookdaleSrLiving BKD ... dd 3.93 +0.15 ...
–1.01 .40 36.50 26.76 BrookfieldAsset BAM 4.4 6 28.95 –1.46 .32
289.12 203.66 Carlisle CSL 1.4 17 248.78 +2.60 .85 11.29 9.98 ConstellationI A CSTA ... 70 10.92 +0.01 ... 60.88 45.97 Dow DOW 5.8 26 48.11 –0.88 .70 26.43 20.49 EssentialProp EPRT 5.3 18 21.10 +0.26 .28
87.50 52.10 CarMax KMX ... 21 60.51 –2.33 ... 67.57 33.95 GXO Logistics GXO ... 30 49.82 –2.47 ...
273.65 208.12 ConstBrands A STZ 1.6 28 229.62 –0.77 .89 40.12 19.71 Doximity DOCS ... 37 20.78 –1.31 ... 49.89 32.07 EssentialUtil WTRG 3.7 19 33.28 +0.36.3071 237.95 174.45 Gallagher AJG 1.0 44 228.24 +0.67 .55
19.55 7.53 Carnival CCL ... dd 11.13 +0.10 ... 19.46 10.09 Constellium CSTM ... 15 15.32 –0.61 ... 73.17 51.11 DrReddy'sLab RDY .6 19 65.05 –1.17.4877 248.80 195.03 EssexProp ESS 4.5 25 206.58 –5.09 2.31
17.67 6.74 Carnival CUK ... dd 10.08 +0.12 ... 34.99 12.90 GameStop GME ... dd 13.12 –0.32 ...
5.80 1.79 ContainerStore TCS ... dd 1.86 –0.34 ... 31.60 8.17 DreamFinders DFH ... 8 19.15 +0.56 ... 283.62 123.64 EsteeLauder EL 2.1 45 124.53 –12.77 .66 3.60 1.40 Gannett GCI ... dd 2.25 –0.22 ...
72.66 34.10 CarpenterTech CRS 1.3 29 62.49 +1.48 .20 15.05 5.52 Volaris VLRS ... dd 5.99 +0.08 ... 35.95 21.31 Dril-Quip DRQ ... dd 22.78 –2.91 ... 36.20 24.50 EthanAllen ETD 5.6 7 25.91 –2.74 .36
35.99 21.00 CarriageSvcs CSV 2.1 11 21.18 –1.62.1125 5.49 0.64 GaotuTechedu GOTU ... 25 2.42 –0.02 ...
14.50 11.00 Cool CLCO12.6 ... 13.05 –0.03 .41 17.92 9.32 DuckhornPtf NAPA ... 17 10.26 –0.15 ... 21.00 12.94 Euronav EURN17.9 6 17.87 +0.07 .80 15.49 7.22 Gap GPS 4.7 44 12.77 +0.93 .15
60.04 37.44 CarrierGlobal CARR 1.6 33 46.50 –1.78 .185 22.74 5.92 Cooper-Standard CPS ... dd 12.20 +0.45 ... 58.28 40.24 Ducommun DCO ... 24 46.81 +0.72 ... 11.75 5.10 EveHolding EVEX ... dd 7.48 –0.37 ...
22.84 12.04 Cars.com CARS ... 9 15.24 –0.81 ... 109.62 82.57 Garmin GRMN 2.9 19 99.71 –3.57 .73
121.20 72.23 Copa CPA 4.1 ... 79.07 –1.86 .82 106.43 83.06 DukeEnergy DUK 4.7 49 87.53 +0.501.025 11.91 5.30 Eventbrite EB ... dd 8.20 –0.42 ... 377.88 292.46 Gartner IT ... 28 325.76 –23.00 ...
86.76 60.66 Carter's CRI 4.7 12 64.33 –2.73 .75 33.32 18.75 Core&Main CNM ... 14 29.43 –0.52 ... 15.45 8.81 Dun&Bradstreet DNB 2.3 dd 8.87 –0.78 .05 146.99 100.72 EvercoreA EVR 2.4 16 126.70 –2.97 .76
57.19 3.55 Carvana CVNA ... dd 28.58 –2.49 ... 14.93 10.30 GatesIndustrial GTES ... 13 10.75 –0.36 ...
27.95 17.77 CoreLabs CLB .2 26 21.88 –1.28 .01 78.74 56.77 DuPont DD 2.0 7 72.15 –0.86 .36 11.91 10.10 EverestConsolA MNTN ... dd 10.92 +0.07 ... 7.49 2.99 GatosSilver GATO ... dd 5.01 –0.06 ...
74.49 31.45 Catalent CTLT ... dd 39.32 –2.84 ... 23.50 14.01 CorebridgeFin CRBG 4.6 6 19.93 –0.72 .23 41.44 22.67 DutchBros BROS ... cc 24.75 –0.58 ... 410.74 303.71 Everest EG 1.8 7 385.58 –10.44 1.75
293.88 204.04 Caterpillar CAT 2.2 15 238.56 –10.64 1.30 19.84 12.39 GencoShipping GNK 4.6 7 13.15 –1.05 .15
35.48 18.71 CoreCard CCRD ... 31 19.84 –0.04 ... 122.13 77.33 DycomInds DY ... 13 84.67 +0.02 ... 19.85 10.52 Everi EVRI ... 9 10.76 –0.34 ... 156.95 80.80 Generac GNRC ... 34 82.20 –6.18 ...
12.11 6.91 Cato CATO 9.8 dd 6.97 –0.28 .17 13.50 7.84 CoreCivic CXW ... 12 12.36 +0.95 ... 3.30 2.08 DynagasLNG DLNG ... 2 2.57 +0.07 ... 87.71 52.21 EversourceEner ES 5.1 16 53.16 –0.34.675
7.40 0.33 Cazoo CZOO ... dd .41 –0.01 ... 256.86 202.35 GeneralDynamics GD 2.2 20 238.25 +3.31 1.32
For personal non-commercial use only. Do not edit or alter. Reproductions not permitted.
3.48 0.58 CorEnergyInfr CORR30.3 dd .66 –0.06 .05 55.87 31.54 Dynatrace DT ... 89 43.77 –2.55 ... 42.03 30.17 Evertec EVTC .6 22 32.93 –2.16 .05 117.96 59.75 GeneralElec GE .3 12 106.35 +0.27 .08
47.95 34.09 CedarFairRec FUN 3.5 8 34.43 –0.65 .30 37.10 25.26 Corning GLW 4.2 36 26.59 –0.58 .28 15.00 9.57 DynexCapital DX 16.3 54 9.60 –1.07 .13 36.70 21.83 EvolentHealth EVH ... dd 23.98 –2.89 ...
131.05 90.07 Celanese CE 2.5 10 113.50 –1.72 .70 90.89 60.33 GeneralMills GIS 3.6 16 65.30 +2.06 .59
38.70 28.96 Vesta VTMX 1.0 9 31.27 +1.27.1703 31.13 14.53 ExcelerateEner EE .7 14 15.06 –0.35.025 43.63 27.12 GeneralMotors GM 1.3 4 27.22 –2.44 .09
27.58 10.33 Celestica CLS ... 13 22.38 –3.43 ... E
14.89 7.66 CorpAmAirports CAAP ... 8 11.00 –0.11 ... 42.80 7.36 Express EXPR ... 0 8.64 –0.52 ... 11.20 9.92 GenAsia I A GAQ ... 31 10.80 +0.03 ...
6.14 4.90 CementosPacasm CPAC10.0 10 4.94 –0.05.5276 68.43 47.21 Corteva CTVA 1.3 37 47.82 –2.44 .16 25.04 14.61 Expro XPRO ... cc 15.90 –4.49 ...
8.46 3.50 Cemex CX ... 10 5.95 –0.05 ... 12.11 9.81 EG Acqn A EGGF ... dd 10.62 –0.04 ... 53.25 17.31 Genesco GCO ... 54 25.91 –2.80 ...
17.51 10.13 Cosan CSAN ... dd 12.79 +0.46 ... 139.85 41.52 elfBeauty ELF ... 58 102.24 +0.36 ... 180.76 102.30 ExtraSpaceSt EXR 2.3 17 104.39 –5.20 .61 12.15 8.05 GenesisEnergy GEL 5.4 cc 11.17 –0.13 .15
194.79 147.10 Cencora COR 1.0 23 187.64 –1.11.485 11.85 7.71 Costamare CMRE 5.1 2 9.10 +0.01 .115 120.70 98.02 ExxonMobil XOM 3.4 10 105.55 –5.53 .91
22.18 14.97 CenovusEnergy CVE 1.7 13 19.35 –1.31.1053 227.50 135.55 EMCOR EME .4 18 205.32 +12.79 .18 20.40 8.16 GenieEnergy GNE 1.6 8 19.18 +0.34.075
31.76 22.25 CoterraEnergy CTRA 2.9 7 27.70 –1.23 .20 33.10 25.10 ENI E 4.1 6 32.46 –0.04.3107 8.45 3.12 GeniusSports GENI ... dd 4.69 –0.31 ...
87.84 60.83 Centene CNC ... 15 67.48 –4.41 ... F
13.46 6.29 Coty COTY ... 16 9.14 –0.35 ... 150.88 98.52 EOG Rscs EOG 2.6 8 125.99 –7.24.825 48.85 32.80 Genpact G 1.7 15 32.87 –2.40.1375
31.52 25.42 CenterPointEner CNP 3.0 21 26.69 –0.45 .20 20.37 12.67 Coupang CPNG ... 71 17.01 –0.64 ...
7.71 4.25 CenterraGold CGAU 4.0 dd 5.26 +0.27.0519 385.96 197.99 EPAM Systems EPAM ... 23 210.44 –12.89 ... 35.00 9.03 F&GAnnuities FG 2.7 13 29.76 +0.28 .20 187.73 126.54 GenuineParts GPC 3.0 14 127.12 –1.51 .95
19.56 9.91 Coursera COUR ... dd 17.20 –0.64 ... 47.71 33.92 EPR Prop EPR 8.1 21 40.81 –0.21.275 44.11 24.34 FB Financial FBK 2.1 10 28.88 –0.45 .15 6.40 4.48 GenworthFin GNW ... 6 5.81 +0.02 ...
71.97 47.56 Centerspace CSR 6.1 29 47.82 –5.27 .73
28.66 17.40 CousinsProperties CUZ 7.2 31 17.88 –0.49 .32 44.98 28.11 EQT EQT 1.5 6 41.95 –0.40.1575 10.20 5.31 Figs FIGS ... 75 5.70 –0.58 ... 16.38 8.83 GeoPark GPRK 5.3 3 9.95 –0.77 .132
10.39 5.67 CentraisElBras EBR .6 46 6.84 +0.08.0443
95.21 67.28 Crane CR .8 ... 91.24 +7.13 .18 74.15 36.09 ESAB ESAB .4 18 63.09 –1.99 .06 134.38 49.70 FMC FMC 4.1 12 56.88 –10.07 .58 6.34 4.20 Gerdau GGB .6 4 4.36 +0.10.0878
24.55 13.22 CentralPacFin CPF 6.7 7 15.63 –0.06 .26
63.36 33.04 CraneNXT CXT 1.1 15 50.89 +0.12 .14 109.57 82.18 ESCO Tech ESE .3 27 95.22 –3.31 .08 14.71 10.09 FNB FNB 4.6 7 10.47 –0.22 .12 10.17 0.23 Getaround GETR ... ... .23 –0.03 ...
7.63 4.38 CentralPuerto CEPU 2.0 13 6.19 –0.49.1649
11.19 5.13 CrawfordA CRD.A 3.1 dd 8.92 +0.06 .07 4.38 0.75 ESSTech GWH ... dd 1.28 –0.20 ... 15.80 3.11 FreyrBattery FREY ... dd 3.21 –0.31 ... 8.22 3.42 GettyImages GETY ... dd 4.12 –0.40 ...
82.70 40.67 CenturyComm CCS 1.5 8 60.85 +2.18 .23
10.10 5.05 Crawford B CRD.B 3.5 dd 8.00 –0.05 .07 7.21 2.15 E2open ETWO ... dd 2.91 –0.15 ... 20.80 17.06 FS KKR Cap FSK 15.0 19 18.65 –0.33 .05 36.49 26.19 GettyRealty GTY 6.8 19 26.29 –0.27 .45
79.66 52.92 CeridianHCM CDAY ... dd 63.39 –6.34 ...
160.15 120.80 Credicorp BAP ... 7 125.12 +1.23 ... 67.09 39.15 EagleBulkShip EGLE 5.7 5 40.90 –1.29 .58 218.00 140.09 FTI Consulting FCN ... 32 215.95 +29.75 ... 34.33 26.30 Gildan GIL 2.7 10 27.28 –1.76 .186
14.62 2.40 ChargePoint CHPT ... dd 2.49 –0.48 ...
15.14 9.17 CrescentEnergy CRGY 4.7 3 12.38 +0.23 .12 195.96 116.37 EagleMaterials EXP .7 11 147.75 –7.28 .25 183.74 90.19 Fabrinet FN ... 23 151.97 –8.76 ... 2.94 1.12 GinkgoBioworks DNA ... dd 1.35 –0.22 ...
262.00 170.90 CharlesRiverLabs CRL ... 18 172.59 –12.82 ...
8.62 5.59 CrescentPoint CPG 3.7 15 8.01 –0.28.0758 22.45 11.32 EarthstoneEner ESTE .0 5 21.31 –0.52.1446 474.13 377.89 FactSet FDS .9 35 420.42 –9.70 .98 59.70 26.77 GlacierBancorp GBCI 4.4 13 30.10 +0.36 .33
242.59 101.44 ChartIndustries GTLS ... dd 110.12 –40.19 ...
31.46 22.11 CrestwoodEquity CEQP 9.6 29 27.30 –1.14.003 17.43 10.33 EasterlyGovtProp DEA 10.1 38 10.46 –0.12.265 940.10 427.09 FairIsaac FICO ... 52 848.10 –63.90 ... 4.87 1.44 Glatfelter GLT ... dd 1.63 +0.06 ...
14.38 8.92 ChathamLodging CLDT 3.1 70 8.99 –0.47 .07
30.40 13.51 CrossTimbers CRT 11.7 8 17.81 –0.44.1099 188.85 144.40 EastGroup EGP 3.2 40 157.51 +0.69 1.27 10.88 1.53 Farfetch FTCH ... dd 1.55 –0.03 ... 80.28 40.45 Glaukos GKOS ... dd 67.45 –0.34 ...
3.58 1.41 CheetahMobile CMCM ... dd 1.67 ... ...
153.98 84.72 CrownCastle CCI 7.0 25 89.87 +3.731.565 92.21 68.89 EastmanChem EMN 4.4 15 72.58 +1.29 .79 14.27 9.44 FarmlandPtrs FPI 2.3 35 10.41 +0.09 .06 7.60 3.49 GlobalBlue GB ... dd 5.09 –0.01 ...
30.05 8.08 Chegg CHGG ... 5 8.48 +0.09 ...
96.35 66.76 CrownHoldings CCK 1.2 19 79.52 +1.20 .24 6.34 2.78 EastmanKodak KODK ... 6 3.70 –0.23 ... 24.31 7.15 Fastly FSLY ... dd 14.12 –0.54 ... 8.05 4.26 GlblBusTravel GBTG ... dd 4.90 –0.49 ...
574.66 456.34 Chemed CHE .3 35 564.74 +52.63 .40
10.67 9.87 CrownPropA CPTK ... 27 10.58 +0.04 ... 240.44 146.68 Eaton ETN 1.8 29 195.31 +1.32 .86 57.20 3.16 FathomDigital FATH ... dd 3.16 –0.14 ... 37.00 22.73 GlobalIndemnity GBLI 2.7 14 36.48 +1.48 .25
39.05 22.88 Chemours CC 4.2 dd 23.58 –1.40 .25
48.93 33.19 CubeSmart CUBE 5.8 20 33.98 –1.55 .49 191.41 131.04 Ecolab ECL 1.3 38 157.44 –2.49 .53 148.81 91.49 FedAgriMtg A AGM.A 3.7 8 117.57 +1.38 1.10 34.72 20.52 GlobalIndl GIC 2.6 17 31.17 –1.40 .20
7.24 2.77 CherryHillMtg CHMI21.4 dd 2.81 –0.20 .15
160.60 82.25 Cullen/Frost CFR 4.1 9 89.67 +3.57 .92 13.08 8.59 Ecopetrol EC 18.1 4 11.95 –0.30.1479 180.16 111.28 FedAgriMtg C AGM 3.0 10 144.94 +3.09 1.10 11.79 8.04 GlobalMedREIT GMRE 9.9 27 8.46 –0.22 .21
132.91 87.05 ChesapeakeUtil CPK 2.7 18 88.38 –2.05 .59
5.99 4.16 Culp CULP ... dd 5.54 +0.04 ... 12.35 8.20 Ecovyst ECVT ... 17 9.09 –0.18 ... 115.08 85.27 FederalRealty FRT 5.0 19 86.65 –0.64 1.09 15.28 7.56 GlobalNetLease GNL 18.6 dd 7.62 –0.37.354
189.68 143.96 Chevron CVX 4.2 11 144.35 –22.48 1.51
265.28 203.18 Cummins CMI 3.1 12 215.24 –3.95 1.68 46.13 33.71 EdgewellPersonal EPC 1.7 15 34.29 –0.72 .15 65.33 43.44 FederalSignal FSS .7 26 57.27 –0.81 .10 39.24 27.07 GlobalPtrs GLP 9.2 5 29.78 +0.56.685
52.88 16.53 Chewy CHWY ... cc 18.02 +1.22 ...
210.21 156.76 Curtiss-Wright CW .4 24 195.67 –5.83 .20 74.92 56.67 EdisonIntl EIX 4.8 25 61.94 –0.77.7375 45.55 30.23 FederatedHermes FHI 3.6 10 31.53 ... .28 129.70 92.27 GlobalPayments GPN 1.0 34 102.78 –8.35 .25
7.53 4.33 Chico'sFas CHS ... 7 7.49 ... ...
15.63 6.24 Cushman&Wkfd CWK ... dd 6.68 –0.08 ... 94.87 61.01 EdwardsLife EW ... 26 61.71 –7.77 ... 270.95 151.34 FedEx FDX 2.2 15 228.84 –11.78 1.26 21.83 15.82 GlobalShipLease GSL 8.5 2 17.75 +0.13 .375
7.81 4.48 ChimeraInvt CIM 15.5 dd 4.64 –0.11 .18
7.64 5.42 CustomTruck CTOS ... 26 5.63 –0.21 ... 14.69 7.88 ElancoAnimal ELAN ... dd 8.85 –0.31 ... 171.06 105.00 Ferguson FERG 2.0 17 151.72 –1.68 .75 210.00 135.41 Globant GLOB ... 49 169.12 –11.30 ...
6.00 1.61 ChinaGreenAg CGA ... dd 2.01 –0.08 ...
45.00 6.87 CustomersBancorp CUBI ... 6 39.76 +7.65 ... 84.04 46.18 Elastic ESTC ... dd 75.50 –4.12 ... 329.88 188.93 Ferrari RACE .7 48 298.24 –3.461.9963 123.85 102.23 GlobeLife GL .8 12 112.03 +1.78.225
12.50 6.73 ChinaYuchai CYD 3.4 8 8.15 +0.03 .28
2175.01 1344.05 Chipotle CMG ... 45 1887.59 +56.34 ... D 12.11 5.28 EldoradoGold EGO ... dd 10.78 +0.57 ... 15.30 12.60 FidelisInsurance FIHL ... ... 13.85 –0.10 ... 80.04 45.15 GlobusMedical GMED ... 23 45.66 –5.65 ...
136.02 109.49 ChoiceHotels CHH 1.0 20 110.48 –2.56.2875 11.85 0.64 ElectriqPower ELIQ ... cc .82 –0.48 ... 45.51 31.84 FidNatlFinl FNF 4.7 20 38.31 +0.51 .45 85.32 64.65 GoDaddy GDDY ... 35 71.66 –2.83 ...
231.37 183.40 Chubb CB 1.6 12 208.55 +0.56 .86 6.56 2.60 DHI Group DHX ... dd 2.72 +0.06 ... 21.90 16.36 ElementSolns ESI 1.8 89 18.00 –0.37 .08 85.18 46.91 FidNatlInfo FIS 4.4 dd 47.16 –3.24 .52 17.78 7.28 GoldFields GFI 3.4 18 13.61 –0.42.2425
41.58 33.20 ChunghwaTel CHT 3.2 23 35.50 –0.211.4779 12.13 7.30 DHT DHT 9.0 11 11.09 +0.61 .35 549.52 412.00 ElevanceHealth ELV 1.3 17 441.46 –12.321.48 2.25 1.00 FinanceofAm FOA ... dd 1.03 +0.01 ... 16.52 12.75 GoldmanSachsBDC GSBD13.4 16 13.46 –0.27 .45
100.52 70.30 Church&Dwight CHD 1.2 50 90.11 –0.01.2725 13.85 5.01 DRDGOLD DRD 5.8 11 8.84 –0.51.3463 14.62 10.82 EllingtonFin EFC 15.0 27 12.01 –0.22 .15 6.05 3.55 FinVolution FINV 4.2 4 4.69 +0.03 .215 389.58 289.36 GoldmanSachs GS 3.8 14 289.91 –10.142.75
11.15 9.92 ChurchillVI A CCVI ... 46 10.47 +0.02 ... 122.41 90.14 DTE Energy DTE 3.9 15 96.91 +0.26.9525 8.15 5.14 EllingtonResiMtg EARN18.4 54 5.21 –0.16 .08 64.66 48.01 FirstAmerFin FAF 4.2 22 50.23 –0.30 .53 33.74 22.92 Gorman-Rupp GRC 2.3 29 30.91 +0.03 .175
10.80 9.92 ChurchillVII A CVII ... 41 10.46 –0.01 ... 61.12 45.11 DT Midstream DTM 5.2 14 52.98 –2.10 .69 20.24 12.68 ElmeComms ELME 5.6 dd 12.90 –0.92 .18 15.99 10.18 FirstBanCorp FBP 4.3 8 13.15 +0.06 .14 87.94 65.23 Graco GGG 1.3 24 73.51 +3.38.235
54.25 39.94 Ciena CIEN ... 28 41.02 –0.62 ... 4.12 0.40 D-WaveQuantum QBTS ... dd .61 –0.19 ... 13.50 8.49 EmbotellAndinaA AKO.A 8.2 11 9.78 –0.52.1442 16.53 11.16 FirstCmwlthFin FCF 4.2 8 11.99 –0.16 .125 6.74 3.18 GrafTechIntl EAF 1.2 7 3.34 –0.06 .01
340.11 240.50 Cigna CI 1.6 14 303.24 –3.54 1.23 30.27 18.61 DXC Tech DXC ... dd 19.55 –0.78 ... 17.66 10.01 EmbotellAndinaB AKO.B 7.6 12 11.67 –0.28.1586 16.70 3.69 FirstFoundation FFWM .8 dd 4.89 +0.11 .01 17.95 8.33 Graham GHM ... 71 15.44 –1.46 ...
19.85 8.28 Cinemark CNK ... dd 15.51 –0.24 ... 19.75 12.31 Dana DAN 3.2 dd 12.62 –0.04 .10 17.14 9.49 Embraer ERJ ... dd 13.88 –0.16 ... 24.92 8.99 FirstHorizon FHN 5.7 6 10.52 –0.05 .15 681.70 545.00 GrahamHoldings GHC 1.2 13 565.82 –13.97 1.65
53.23 38.17 Citigroup C 5.5 6 38.24 –1.44 .53 249.55 183.25 Danaher DHR .6 24 187.88 –17.95 .27 5.94 3.18 EmeraldHldg EEX ... 34 4.61 –0.53 ... 55.51 40.44 FirstIndRlty FR 3.1 20 40.64 –1.72 .32 811.60 534.01 Grainger GWW 1.1 20 706.76 +15.27 1.86
44.82 22.77 CitizensFin CFG 7.3 6 22.87 –0.89 .42 71.65 51.10 Danaos DAC 4.6 3 65.79 +0.04 .75 5.60 2.39 Emeren SOL ... 4 2.43 –0.29 ... 9.81 4.81 FirstMajestic AG .4 dd 5.48 –0.09.0051 44.15 31.93 GraniteConstr GVA 1.5 37 34.27 –1.03 .13
4.00 1.64 Citizens CIA ... 17 3.05 +0.05 ... 4.59 1.35 DanimerScientific DNMR ... dd 1.38 –0.27 ... 21.56 1.99 EmergentBiosol EBS ... dd 2.00 –0.21 ... 43.31 32.18 FirstEnergy FE 4.7 39 35.13 –0.15 .41 7.99 3.97 GranitePointMtg GPMT20.0 dd 4.01 –0.12 .20
10.80 3.46 CityOfficeREIT CIO 11.5 dd 3.47 –0.36 .10 58.44 22.94 DaqoNewEnergy DQ ... 2 23.33 –1.53 ... 100.62 76.94 EmersonElec EMR 2.4 5 88.03 –3.44 .52 6.87 1.18 FiscalNote NOTE ... dd 1.32 –0.27 ... 10.40 4.82 GraniteRidge GRNT 6.7 4 6.10 –0.15 .11
44 BARRON’S October 30, 2023
8.80 3.54 Hanesbrands HBI .0 dd 4.17 –0.22 .15 34.80 18.06 Kaman KAMN 4.4 dd 18.11 –0.85 .20
39.67 13.22 HannonArmstrong HASI 9.4 31 16.77 –0.62.395 4.26 1.54 iHuman IH ... 6 2.65 +0.05 ... 172.59 108.53 M&T Bank MTB 4.8 6 108.94 –4.83 1.30 45.97 29.08 MuellerIndustries MLI 1.6 7 37.82 +2.60 .15
72.41 47.63 Kellanova K 4.8 20 50.40 +0.28 .60 16.62 10.55 MuellerWater MWA 2.1 26 12.48 +0.23.064
148.78 103.83 HanoverIns THG 2.8 dd 114.26 –0.95 .81 264.19 206.04 IllinoisToolWks ITW 2.5 22 223.26 –0.301.40 14.00 6.07 MBIA MBI ... dd 6.44 +0.31 ...
68.15 38.32 Kemper KMPR 3.0 dd 41.28 –1.36 .31 2.90 0.61 MultiPlan MPLN ... dd 1.65 +0.12 ...
51.77 25.43 HarleyDavidson HOG 2.5 5 26.17 –3.93 .165 21.82 12.13 Imax IMAX ... 39 17.94 –0.06 ... 51.94 28.43 MDC Holdings MDC 6.0 8 36.88 –0.23 .55
30.60 22.24 Kennametal KMT 3.6 15 22.50 –0.67 .20 51.29 32.80 MurphyOil MUR 2.4 7 45.31 –1.83.275
5.43 2.62 HarmonyGold HMY ... 11 4.70 –0.22 ... 5.25 2.49 IndependenceContr ICD ... dd 2.79 –0.17 ... 22.55 18.19 MDU Rscs MDU 2.7 9 18.29 –0.51.2225
18.90 12.70 Kennedy-Wilson KW 7.5 48 12.76 –0.35 .24 372.63 231.65 MurphyUSA MUSA .4 14 363.84 +2.54 .39
79.44 64.25 HartfordFinl HIG 2.7 10 70.41 +0.02 .47 19.68 12.12 IndepRealty IRT 5.2 40 12.20 –0.98 .16 12.38 8.41 MFA Financial MFA 16.1 dd 8.70 +0.09 .35
41.06 17.81 KenonHoldings KEN 15.6 dd 17.86 –2.592.79 26.49 16.36 MyersIndustries MYE 3.3 12 16.50 –0.40 .135
38.85 25.05 HavertyFurn HVT 4.6 6 25.91 –2.54 .30 11.15 10.12 InFinTAcqnA IFIN ... cc 11.13 ... ... 18.25 12.16 MGIC Investment MTG 2.8 6 16.46 –0.23 .115
10.97 10.11 KensingtonCapAcqnV KCGI.UT ... ... 10.74 +0.18 ...
43.71 9.06 HawaiianElec HE 11.2 6 12.85 +0.50 .36 22.12 13.29 Informatica INFA ... dd 19.10 –1.32 ... 51.35 31.40 MGM Resorts MGM .0 33 34.23 –1.02.0025
10.75 10.05 KensingtonCapV A KCGI ... 34 10.62 +0.02 ... N
10.35