Aljundi Journal – A Military & Cultural Monthly Magazine

Emerging Military Technologies Trends For 2023 & Beyond

1 February 2023

Emerging trends in superpowers regarding military technologies such as artificial intelligence, lethal
autonomous weapons, hypersonic weapons, directed energy weapons, biotechnology and quantum
computing, will undoubtedly have serious repercussions on the future of armies, warfare and
international security.

This file offers an overview of these new military technologies for 2023 and beyond as well as their
potential impacts on the future of military power, especially major powers such as the United States,
China and Russia.

Furthermore, it will identify and examine the challenges these technologies pose, including how to
quickly acquire and protect them, as well as stabilize their financing and governance and deal with
the challenges associated with the human element.

The study will also discuss international institutions’ most important initiatives to monitor or regulate
the use of these technologies.

Finally, it will explore the trends associated with these emerging military technologies from 2023
onwards.

1- Artificial intelligence (AI)

The term artificial intelligence (AI) is generally used to refer to a computer system capable of at least
human-level awareness, and it is divided into three categories: Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI),
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).

ANI systems can only perform the specific task for which they are trained, while AGI systems are
capable of performing a wide range of tasks even if they aren’t trained for them, and ASI systems
surpass the level of human cognitive performance in almost all fields.

So far there aren’t many publicly known applications of AGI and ASI systems in the field of weapons
development, while ANI systems applications dominate the fields including intelligence, surveillance,
reconnaissance, Cyber, command and control operations, as well as semi-autonomous and
autonomous vehicles.

The objective of these applications and technologies is to replace the human element in weapons
operations with technologies, effectively giving them the ability to do more complex and cognitively
demanding tasks, to achieve the following goals:

Interact faster than systems that depend on human input.

Deal with the exponential increase in the amount of data available for analysis.

Enable the use of new operational concepts, such as swarming (i.e., the cooperative behaviour in
which autonomous weapons independently coordinate among themselves to achieve a common
mission), which gives them an advantage against an enemy’s defensive systems.
However, the use of ANI in weapons poses various challenges. For example, such systems may be
subject to algorithmic bias, which can lead to misidentifications resulting in the unintentional death
of civilians.

Furthermore, the Enemy can disrupt AI-based target recognition or redirect it by exploiting
vulnerabilities and using “deepfakes” of images, audio and video.

The US Department of Defence’s investments in artificial intelligence amounted to more than $600
million in 2016, which increased to $1.1 billion in 2023, and in addition to 685 active artificial
intelligence projects, it established the Joint Artificial intelligence Centre (JAIC) to coordinate the
efforts of these projects, it was also given acquisition authority, to support the goal of introducing AI
capabilities at the departmental level.

By the end of 2021, Deputy Secretary of Defence Kathleen Hicks ordered the establishment of two
new agencies, the Chief Digital Office and the Artificial Intelligence Office, to succeed the JAIC and
report directly to the Deputy Minister of Defence.

In March 2021, the National Security Committee on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) submitted a report
to congress recommending investment in research and development, utilizing artificial intelligence in
national security operations and training, employing talented people in the field of artificial
intelligence, protecting and benefiting from American technological advantages, and organizing
global cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence, and the Minister of Defence is required to
submit an annual status report to the congressional defence committees to follow up on the
implementation of these recommendations.

China is widely seen as the closest competitor to the US in the applications of artificial intelligence in
the military field.

China’s 2017 “Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” describes AI as a “strategic
technology” that has become “the focus of international competition”.

Recent advancements in this field show China’s ability to achieve its objectives regarding the
development of artificial intelligence, especially in language and face recognition technologies, and
integrating them into air, land, and sea targeting, surveillance and espionage networks, thereby
integrating them into autonomous naval military vehicles and weapons.

China’s National Intelligence Law stipulates that companies and individuals must support, assist and
cooperate with the work of China’s national intelligence, therefore, the government has direct means
to prioritize the development of military AI and access civilian technology.

For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that “whoever becomes the world leader in
artificial intelligence will become the de facto ruler of the world.”

However, Russian AI technological development has been lagging behind that of the US and China,
and as part of its efforts to bridge this gap, Russia has released a national strategy that sets 5 and 10
years benchmarks to improve the country’s capabilities in the fields of artificial intelligence,
educational software, infrastructure, and the legal regulatory system.

The Russian army is researching applications for artificial intelligence, with a focus on semi-
autonomous and autonomous military vehicles, in addition, it is building an autonomous ground
vehicle combat unit capable of independently identifying and engaging targets, and plans to develop
a set of AI-based autonomous systems.
In addition to the Russian military plans to integrate AI into unmanned air, sea, and deep sea
vehicles, reports indicate that it is developing AI-swarming capabilities.

In conclusion, while Russia has never been a leader in this field, it usually manages to be a
remarkably disruptive power, it may also be able to benefit from its growing technological
cooperation with China.

On the other hand, various international institutions have studied security and ethical issues related
to artificial intelligence, such as the G7, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO), which adopted the first strategy for setting standards for the responsible use of
AI, in accordance with international law, and accelerating the adoption of AI in its missions as well as
protecting this technology and dealing with the threat posed by the enemy’s use of AI.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of artificial intelligence in 2023 and
beyond include the following:

What measures should the Ministry of Defence take to implement ethical principles related to
artificial intelligence? Are these measures enough to ensure that the ministries of defence adhere to
these principles? How do the various ministries of defence test and evaluate their AI systems to
ensure they are not vulnerable to enemies’ exploitation? Do defence ministries and the intelligence
community have sufficient information about the state of foreign military AI applications and the way
such applications are developed, and how they can be used to compromise the national security of
countries?

How will the adoption of artificial intelligence applications affect ministries of defence around the
world? What national security considerations should be taken into account regarding deepfakes as
well as the protection of freedom of speech, artistic expression, and the beneficial uses of those
technologies? What efforts should governments make to educate the public about deep fake news
and documents?

2- Lethal Autonomous Weapons

Lethal Autonomous Weapons, commonly known as “killer robots”, are the third evolution in warfare
after gunpowder and nuclear weapons.

Advancements made in the field of weapons since the beginning of modern warfare were just a
prelude to artificial intelligence and its integration into military operations through the development
of weapons capable of making the necessary decisions to engage and eliminate the enemy without
any human intervention.

Lethal autonomous weapons have five distinct characteristics including the ability to kill, the power
to self-operate without the need for human intervention or control throughout the entire operation
and the ability to evolve and self-upgrade through their interactions with the environment such as
extending their range of functions and capabilities in a way that exceeds human expectations

Moreover, once an operation starts it is impossible to terminate, and the so-called “random effect”,
means that the weapon will carry out the task of killing and destroying, regardless of the context.

Pros and cons of lethal autonomous weapons

Lethal autonomous weapons operate through algorithms and sensors to classify a target as hostile,
decide to engage, point the weapon at it and destroy or kill it, which makes them ideal for military
operations in environments with difficult or impossible communications, where conventional
systems cannot operate, furthermore, these weapons can strike military targets more accurately and
with less risk and without collateral damage or civilian casualties.

However, such weapons can be hacked or manipulated and they can also interact unexpectedly with
their environment, in addition, they can malfunction and the human operator will not be able to
intervene to finish their tasks, which could lead to broader instances of targeting civilians or allies or
other unintended consequences.

The Lethal Autonomous Weapons Race

So far, the US has not declared that it has or developing lethal autonomous weapons systems,
however, there is no ban on their development or possession.

As for China, some Chinese weapons manufacturers, such as Ziyan, are already producing weapons
capable of identifying and engaging targets independently, according to former US Secretary of
Defence Mark Esper, furthermore, China also has no ban on the development of lethal autonomous
weapons systems.

While Russia has not made any announcement indicating that it is developing lethal autonomous
weapons systems, the Russian arms manufacturer Kalashnikov has built an unmanned ground vehicle
unit capable of autonomous targeting and possibly engaging targets without any human
intervention.

Furthermore, The US and Russia have opposed the establishment of regulations or pre-emptive bans
on lethal autonomous weapons systems by international institutions, while China supported a ban
on the use, but not the development of such systems.
On the other hand, about 30 countries and 165 non-governmental organizations have called for a
pre-emptive ban on lethal autonomous weapons due to ethical concerns such as lack of
accountability for their use and the inability to comply with proportionality requirements.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of lethal autonomous weapons in 2023
and beyond include: To what extent are anti-state actors developing lethal autonomous weapons
systems and how will this impact the efforts of states in the research and development of these
systems?

What role should states play in the discussions of conventional weapons about lethal autonomous
weapons systems? Should states try to maintain the status quo or advocate for regulation or bans on
lethal autonomous weapons systems? If states choose to develop such weapons, will legal standards
be sufficient for their use in conflicts?

3- Hypersonic weapons

Several countries, including the US, Russia and China, are working on the development of hypersonic
weapons, with speeds of more than 5 Mach (5 times the speed of sound or about 6,200 km /h).

Unlike ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons do not follow a predetermined arcing trajectory and can
manoeuvre their way to their destination.

Moreover, these weapons fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, making them impossible to
shoot down by conventional missile defence systems.

There are two main types of hypersonic weapons: hypersonic glide vehicles, which are launched into
space on board missiles before gliding towards their target, and hypersonic cruise missiles which
have engines that use oxygen and produce thrust as they move, allowing them to move at consistent
speeds and altitudes for the duration of their flight.

In the US, the Pentagon requested the allocation of $4.7 billion in 2023 for the development of
hypersonic weapons and $225.5 million for hypersonic defence programs.

The US Department of Defence is currently developing land, air and sea hypersonic weapons that can
attack targets with greater precision, however, it is unlikely that the US will have an operational
hypersonic weapon before 2023.
Furthermore, Washington claims that, unlike Russia and China, it is not developing such weapons for
possible use with a nuclear warhead.

China on the other hand has successfully tested a prototype nuclear-capable hypersonic vehicle
called “Starry Sky-2”, which according to some reports could be operational by 2025.

For its part, Russia recently acquired two hypersonic nuclear weapons, the “Avangard”, which is a
hypersonic glide vehicle that can be launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile and the
“3M22 Zircon” hypersonic cruise missile, which has a range of approximately 250 to 600 miles and
can be launched vertically from cruisers.

Although there are no international treaties or agreements dedicated to supervising the

development of hypersonic weapons yet, the New START Treaty limits the development of
intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can be used to launch hypersonic glide vehicles, however, it
expires in 2026.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of hypersonic weapons in 2023 and
beyond include: What missions can hypersonic weapons be used for? Are these weapons the most
cost-effective means of carrying out these potential missions? How will the deployment of these
weapons affect strategic stability? Is there a need to expand the New START Treaty or negotiate new
multilateral agreements to limit these weapons or regulate their proliferation and use based on
transparency and trust?

4- Directed Energy Weapons

Directed energy weapons use focused beams of electromagnetic energy instead of kinetic energy to
disable, damage, or destroy enemy equipment, facilities, or personnel.

These weapons can be used by ground forces in short-range air defence or systems designed to
counter drones, missiles, artillery, and mortar fire.

Furthermore, they can be used in conjunction with other military systems, including kinetic weapons.

The Pentagon has invested billions of dollars in programs most of which were eventually cancelled,
while the US Navy deployed the first American directed energy weapon in 2014.

This new weapon which is a 30-kilowatt prototype capable of blinding enemy forces as a warning,
shooting down drones, or disabling boats or destroying helicopters, was called the Laser Weapon
System (LaWS) and it was deployed aboard the USS Ponce.
More recently, the US Navy installed a 60-kilowatt HELIOS laser aboard the USS Preble in 2022 and it
is planning to continue increasing directed-energy weapons capabilities at sea in 2023, in addition to
the deployment of a 50-kilowatt mobile short-range air defence system on board the “Stryker”
combat vehicle in 2023.

In addition, the US is working to increase the power levels of directed energy weapons from 150 to
300 kilowatts in 2023 and 500 kilowatts by 2025 while reducing size and weight.

On the other hand, China has directed energy weapons capable of disrupting US navigation in the
Indian and Pacific oceans and it is working on the development of energy weapons capable of
damaging satellites and their sensors in the coming years.

Russia has deployed the “Peresvet” combat laser system, a mobile ground-based high-energy laser
capable of blinding satellites and drones.

On the institutional level, directed energy weapons are not currently listed on the agenda of any
multilateral mechanism or treaty.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of directed energy weapons in 2023
and beyond include: Can the technological development of directed energy weapons justify the
current levels of funding for such weapons? How successful are the military field tests in the field of
directed energy weapons? What changes in operational concepts, rules of engagement, or tactics are
required to improve the use of these weapons? In what circumstances and for what purposes should
the use of directed-energy weapons by militaries be permitted? What are the regulations, treaties, or
measures, if any, should states consider regarding the use of directed energy weapons during war
and peacetime?

5- Biotechnology

Advancements made in biotechnology, such as the development of a low-cost gene-editing tool

capable of altering genes or creating DNA to modify plants, animals, and humans, will have a major
effect on militaries and international security, given that such technology can improve or impair the
performance of military personnel, create adaptive camouflage, cloaking devices and self-healing
armour for personnel or vehicles and weapons, as well as, develop biological weapons.
Biotechnology military programs in the US focus primarily on improving “readiness, resilience, and
recovery”, for example, the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has various
biotechnology programs dedicated to the development of field medicine, diagnostics, prediction,
especially in the field of treatment of brain injury, neuropsychiatric diseases such as depression and
post-traumatic stress, and protection against infectious diseases and biological threats to the food
supply.

Furthermore, DARPA’s “Safe Genes” program seeks to “protect military personnel from accidental or
intentional misuse of genome editing technologies.

It is also researching the development of new biosensor materials and devices, and some reports
indicate that the US is researching or has researched in the past the possibility to use biotechnology
and neuroscience to augment soldiers to increase their intelligence, strength, and endurance.

For its part, the Biden administration issued the National Biodefense Strategy to counter biological
threats, strengthen epidemic preparedness, and protect health security, with the president
requesting the allocation of $88 billion in a five-year budget to achieve the goals of the strategy.

In 2022, the National Security Committee On Emerging Biotechnology was established, to review the
methods, tools, and investments necessary to advance and secure the development of
biotechnology, biomanufacturing, and associated technologies to protect national security”.

The committee is due to present its preliminary findings and recommendations to the congressional
defence committees and the president no later than January 26, 2023, and its final report by January
26, 2024.

On the other hand, within the framework of its 2025 initiative, China has been aggressively pursuing
the use of biotechnologies for genetic testing and precision medicine.

In 2018, a Chinese scientist, possibly with the approval of the Chinese government, produced the
first “genetically modified baby”, furthermore, China maintains one of the largest repositories of
genetic data in the world, the National Genome Bank, which includes US genetic data, which could
be used to either develop customized treatment plans for diseases or precision biological weapons.

In addition, reports indicate that China’s Central Military Commission “funded projects in military
brain science, advanced biomimetic systems, biological and biomimetic materials, human
performance enhancement, and biotechnology, while Chinese military medical institutions
conducted extensive research on gene editing”.
While Russia issued its comprehensive strategy for the development of the biotechnology sector in
2012, especially in the fields of biopharmaceuticals, biomedicine, industrial biotechnology,
bioenergy, agricultural, food biotechnology, forest biotechnology, environmental protection
biotechnology, and marine biotechnology, little information is available about how it might use such
technologies in a military or security context.

Regarding the potential militarization of biotechnology, international institutions usually draw on the
1972 Biological Weapons Convention to hold review conferences every five years to assess both the
implementation of the treaty and ongoing developments in biotechnology, in addition to addressing
bilateral and multilateral efforts to enhance biological security and develop an international
framework for considering the militarization of biotechnologies and discussing the potential
regulations or restrictions that must be imposed on certain biotechnology applications.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of biotechnology-based weapons for
2023 and beyond include: Is there a need for the establishment of biotechnology departments in
ministries of defence to set research priorities and coordinate research across different militaries?
What are the resources or organizational changes required to implement countries’ biodefence
strategies? What are the military applications of biotechnologies under development by international
competitors? Do militaries appropriately balance the potential war utility of biotechnology with
ethical considerations? What are the national and international frameworks needed to consider the
ethical and legal implications of military applications of biotechnologies such as synthetic biology,
genome editing, and human performance modification?

6- Quantum Computing/Technology

Quantum technology is based on transforming the principles of quantum physics into technological
applications, and even though this field is yet to reach maturity, starting in 2023, it could have
significant implications for the future of military sensing, cryptography, and communications.

The Government Accountability Office reports that the Departments of Defence, State, and
Homeland Security have assessed that “quantum communications could enable enemies to develop
secure communications that cannot be intercepted or decrypted”.

Furthermore, Quantum computing could allow enemies to decrypt classified information, enabling
them to target US military personnel and operations and to detect submarines, making the oceans
“transparent”.

However, quantum technology faces obstacles, such as temperature or other environmental factors,
as physicist Mikkel Hueck explained, “If future devices using quantum technologies continue to need
to be cooled to extremely cold temperatures, this will make them expensive, bulky, and power-
hungry.”

For its part, the US is investing in post-quantum (also known as quantum resistance) encryption, and
in May 2022, the Biden administration issued a National Security Memorandum on Strengthening
United States Leadership in Quantum Computing (NSM-10), which ”directs the transformation of
compromised computer systems to quantum-resistant encryption”.

In September 2022, the US Homeland Security Agency issued a cybersecurity memorandum stating
that it expects the transition of national security systems to quantum resistance algorithms to be
completed by 2035.

Finally, the National Defense Authorization Act (2021-2022) has ordered the concerned authorities to
compile a list of technical challenges that quantum computers can tackle annually, update the list in
one to three years, and partner with small and medium-sized businesses to provide quantum
computing capabilities to government, industry, and academic researchers who work To address
these challenges, assess the risks posed by quantum computers and accelerate the development and
deployment of dual-use quantum capabilities, in addition to increasing STEM scholarships in the
form of training junior research officers to include quantum information science.

In China, the government has been increasingly prioritizing quantum technology research in its
development plans in the hopes of achieving major breakthroughs in this field by 2030.

In 2016, China launched “Micius”, the world’s first quantum satellite, to provide “quantum-encrypted
global communication”, and in 2017, it hosted the first quantum-secured intercontinental video
conference.

Moreover, China is investing heavily in terrestrial quantum communication networks, having

completed the construction of a 2,000-kilometre (about 1,250 miles) long quantum network
between Beijing and Shanghai in 2016 and plans to expand that network nationwide in the coming
years. It seems that Beijing is determined to make use of quantum technology in military applications
in the framework of the country’s 13th five-year plan for special military-civilian projects integration.

For its part, Russia is likely to be lagging behind China and the US in quantum technology by 5 to 10
years, according to some analysts.

To bridge this gap, in December 2019 Moscow announced plans to invest $790 million in quantum
research over the course of 5 years.
So far there are no major international institutions with formal initiatives dedicated to monitoring or
regulating military or other applications of quantum technology.

The most important questions that will determine the trends of weapons based on quantum
technology for 2023 and beyond include: Can the maturity of the development of quantum military
applications justify current levels of funding? To what extent can advances in commercial quantum
technology be harnessed for military applications? Are sufficient measures being taken to develop
quantum-resistant encryption and to protect data encrypted using current methods? How far have
international competitors gone to develop military applications of quantum technologies? To what
extent can such efforts threaten developed countries’ military capabilities such as submarines and
fifth-generation stealth aircraft?

Conclusion

Predicting the effects of these emerging military technologies for 2023 and beyond on armies, wars,
and strategic stability depends on the rate of technological progress in the US, China, and Russia, as
well as the way these technologies are integrated into current military forces and operational
concepts.

Moreover, it depends on the interactions between these emerging technologies, and the limitations
placed on the development and use of such technologies by national policies and international law,
however, we can conclude the following:

1- These emerging technologies will definitely affect the future of warfare, armies, and strategic
balance. For example, advances in artificial intelligence technologies and lethal autonomous
weapons can reduce or eliminate the need for a human operator, thereby increasing combat
efficiency and accelerating wars, which could have destabilizing repercussions.

2- Some of these emerging low-cost technologies could shift the balance between quality, which is
the mainstay of superpowers and quantity, as well as between offence and defence.

For example, swarms of self-coordinated autonomous vehicles could outwit conventional defence
systems, effectively giving the attacker an advantage, while directed energy weapons, which provide
a low-cost means of neutralizing such attacks, could help the defender neutralise this advantage.

Therefore, emerging technologies could change the balance of power several times from 2023
onwards.
3- Interactions between emerging technologies can also improve existing military capabilities or
generate new ones with unforeseen effects on battlefields, armies, and strategic stability. For
example, AI could be paired with quantum computing to produce more powerful methods of deep
machine learning, which could lead to major improvements in image recognition and target
identification, enabling the development of more sophisticated autonomous weapons.

Similarly, AI could be paired with biotechnology in a “brain-computer interface” to enhance human

cognition or control prosthetic limbs or robotic systems.

After the “Wagner” rebellion The Future of PRIVATE MILITARY companies

1 August 2023

The rebellion of the private quasi-military company Wagner against the Russian state on June 24,
2023, has raised questions about the future of such companies and whether or not reliance on them
will diminish. The answer to such a question can be addressed by clarifying the roles and significance
of these companies, as well as highlighting the risks associated with them and how to deal with these
risks in an attempt to anticipate their future.

Private military companies play multiple roles in both peacetime and war, which can be detailed as
follows:

1 Providing facilities with security: The European Union has utilized private security companies to
protect the headquarters of the European Police Mission in Afghanistan, secure the headquarters of
the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo, and guard the European Police Mission in the
Democratic Republic of Congo.

In Mozambique, the services of private military companies, specifically Wagner Group and the South
African consultancy group Dyck Advisory, were relied upon to assist in the fight against the terrorist
group that seized control of the Cabo Delgado province and posed threats to the activities of “Total”,
the French company involved in natural gas extraction.

Similarly, until 2013, China owned around 4,000 registered security companies with approximately
4.3 million employees, most of whom were former military and police personnel.

Around twenty of these companies operated overseas to protect state-owned companies and other
Chinese interests, especially those engaged in Belt and Road Initiative projects and Chinese state-
owned companies operating in foreign countries, particularly in African nations.
These companies also provide security for oil and gas facilities, highways, mines, construction sites,
and even Chinese embassies.

2 Securing international trade: The use of private security personnel aboard commercial ships has
become widely accepted to protect vessels from pirate attacks, such as those near the Somali coast.
Private military and security companies provide maritime services, including risk assessments, as well
as armed and unarmed protection of maritime assets and facilities.

Private military and security companies primarily offer defensive maritime services at sea or on the
coast. These companies are contracted to provide port security for land-based parts of maritime
operations, including access control, container inspection, and emergency response. On high seas,
private military companies are employed to protect offshore energy installations, combat illegal
fishing, and provide security for boats, including commercial ships, fishing boats, yachts, and cruise
ships. These assets are protected against attacks by a wide range of perpetrators, including pirates,
terrorists, rebels, and extremist civil protest groups.

In some cases, offshore oil and gas facilities have been targeted by environmental activists or even
terrorist groups. The “Greenpeace” activists attempted to board the Gazprom oil platform in
September 2013 to protest against drilling in the Arctic, and the Niger Delta Liberation Movement
carried out attacks on offshore oil and gas facilities in Nigeria.

3 Fighting rebel groups: the South African private military company “Executive Outcomes” employed
its air force units in the early 1990s to support the governments of Angola and Sierra Leone in their
wars against rebel groups. For instance, Executive Outcomes used helicopters and fighter jets in
Angola to target vehicles of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) rebel
group and heavy weaponry, as well as to deploy forces in the early 1990s. In Sierra Leone, they
targeted the Revolutionary United Front. On the other hand, the South African company employed a
variety of aircraft during its operations in Angola and Sierra Leone, such as two Boeing 727-230
transport planes in addition to two Andover helicopters for medical evacuations.

They also operated Air helicopters for reconnaissance and communications. In the combat
operations in both countries, they used helicopters like the Mi-17, Mi-24 Hind, and the Pilatus PC-7
aircraft.

4 Providing logistical support to forces: Private companies are employed by the European Union to
provide a wide range of support services, such as transportation and logistics, during military
operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chad. The United
States, on the other hand, expanded the use of private military companies during the Iraq war to
perform various functions, including providing security for American bases, officials, and military
convoys. Moreover, the number of private military company personnel relied upon by the United
States in its war against Iraq reached nearly 173,000 individuals in December 2008, compared to
146,000 American soldiers.
5 Direct engagement in military operations: Private military companies play an increasing role in
modern wars. It is evident that the Russian company Wagner played a role in assisting the Russian
state in annexing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

The company is also accused by Western countries of supporting the armed rebellion witnessed in
Donbas in the same year, which led to a sector of its population demanding secession from Ukraine.
With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, a significant number of private
military companies emerged in carrying out pivotal military operations, not just providing support or
logistical support to combat forces. The Chechen Akhmat military units played a crucial role in
Mariupol, defeating the Azov Battalion, a militia affiliated with the Ukrainian army. Wagner, on the
other hand, played a key role in supporting the Russian military’s efforts to control the strategic cities
of Soledar and Bakhmut.

Benefits of Private Companies

Governments around the world are turning to private military companies due to their ability to
provide flexibility in decision-making without relying on national parliaments. They also enable the
state to deny involvement in external conflicts. These benefits can be detailed as follows:

1 Avoiding parliamentary approval: Most constitutions of countries worldwide require leaders to

seek approval from their parliaments before deploying military forces abroad. This process may not
be easy for many countries, especially considering the high costs, both financial and human,
associated with such interventions. This may lead national parliaments, influenced by public opinion,
to hesitate in supporting military interventions. To overcome this dilemma, many countries resort to
private military companies to bypass the need for approval from national parliaments. Furthermore,
it allows them to avoid announcing human losses in case of direct intervention using state military
forces, as such announcements may negatively impact public support for the war.

2 Maintaining plausible deniability: Private military and security companies can assist states in
indirectly intervening in foreign conflicts without openly declaring it.

In addition, they help to conceal the intervening state’s role in violating international laws, enabling
governments to avoid accountability for their actions. A prominent example in this regard is the
United States circumventing the UN arms embargo imposed in 1991 on selling weapons or training
any warring party in former Yugoslavia. The United States diverted attention from this embargo and
sought to support the Croatian army in September 1994, one of the countries that later seceded
from the Yugoslav Federation.
This support was provided through the “Professional Military Resources” corporation, one of the
American private military companies, which had a decisive impact on the war. Moreover, the US
government was able to evade responsibility for human rights violations committed by the Croatian
army, such as extrajudicial killings, disappearances, and deliberate destruction of homes, especially
those belonging to Croat Serbs. States may also utilize private security companies to bypass domestic
laws. When a government official was asked why the US government awarded a contract to the
company DynCorp to support the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in its negotiations, the official
replied, “The answer is simple. We are not allowed to fund a political party” according to US laws.

Thus, by using private security companies, they can circumvent these regulations and restrictions.

Threats of Private Military Companies

Private military companies have evolved from an exceptional phenomenon in the mid-1990s to a
common practice in the early decades of the 21 st century.

Reviewing the experiences of many countries in dealing with mercenaries reveals several challenges,
which can be detailed as follows:

1 Widespread violations: Four former employees of the now-defunct American private military
company known as Blackwater were involved in the Nisour Square massacre in Baghdad in 2007,
where they opened fire on civilians, killing 14 civilians and injuring 17 others, even though none of
the victims belonged to any resistance group or posed a threat to their military convoy.

2 Rebellion: One of the main historical problems with hiring mercenaries is that their loyalty lies with
the money rather than the state benefiting from their services, meaning their national allegiance is
weak.

However, most countries that own private companies now hire individuals who have previously
served in military and security agencies. These companies also execute the agendas of their affiliated
governments. Given that major countries possess significant financial resources, it is unlikely that
such companies would rebel against their governments due to financial constraints, especially since
most of their leadership consists of former state employees.

Nevertheless, a recent issue highlighted by the Wagner rebellion in Russia on June 24, 2023, is the
possibility of a private military company, like Wagner, rebelling against the Russian regular army and
demanding the exclusion of its leadership.
Although the attempt failed, such a development will be a concern for many countries. They will
likely take precautions by reviewing the activities of these companies to ensure they remain under
state control.

3 Arms trafficking: Private military companies possess various military equipment, such as tanks,
helicopters, armoured personnel carriers, automatic rifles, and anti-tank missiles.

In some cases, private military companies have been involved in diverting some of these weapons to
rebel groups. For example, it is believed that the American company “LifeGuard Systems,” which
protects diamond fields in Sierra Leone, shipped weapons during the civil war there, including RPG-7
anti-tank missiles, AK-47 Kalashnikov rifles, mines, and mortar shells, to rebel forces.

How to Address These Threats

Despite the importance of the role played by private military companies, they are not without
challenges, and reviewing various historical cases highlights the different methods used by countries
to address these threats as follows:

1 Mercenaries Integration into armies: Some Italian cities relied on mercenaries to provide security
and wage wars, especially in the 13th and 14th centuries.

However, by the 15th century, some kings began to view these mercenary armies as a threat to their
own security, leading them to incorporate mercenaries as individuals into their own armies. By the
mid-15th century, some states (including Milan) had already begun building their own professional
armies.

Technological advancements supported this trend and in the 16 th century, the use of heavy artillery
and weapons expanded, initially exceeding the financial capabilities of contemporary private military
companies.

Consequently, reliance on regular armies in conducting wars increased, resulting in a reduced role for
private military companies during this historical period. One scenario proposed by the Russian
government to deal with Wagner fighters following the announcement of the end of the Wagner
rebellion was to integrate them into the regular armed forces.
2 Retaining multiple forces: Countries usually divide their armies into several competing forces, such
as establishing national guards alongside the regular army, in addition to maintaining special military
forces.

This is done to ensure that no private military company can successfully launch a rebellion. In the
Russian case, for example, there are approximately 20 private military companies affiliated with
different institutions within the Russian state, in addition to special forces under the Federal Security
Service and military intelligence directorate, along with the regular army consisting of around one
and a half million active personnel and the national guard.

With such numbers, countries can easily overcome any rebellion by a private military company
against the state.

3 Imposing punishment on violators: Although some violations committed by elements of private

military companies usually go uninvestigated and unprosecuted, there have been cases where
individuals have been punished. For example, the individuals of the Blackwater company who were
involved in the killing of unarmed civilians have been punished, with sentences ranging from life
imprisonment to thirty years in prison.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges posed by private military companies, the multiple roles they play, along with
the advantages and benefits they bring to countries, make the idea of dispensing with them costly.
This means that different countries will resort to reviewing the operations of these companies in the
event of any violations, modifying governing laws, or regulating their activities to ensure their ability
to overcome any challenges these companies pose and enhance the benefits of their activities.

» By: Dr Shadi Abdulwahab

(Military and Strategic Analyst)

The 1st international summit on Responsible Artificial Intelligence In The Military Context,
objectives, content and results

1 May 2023

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making fundamental changes in our modern world, including in the
military field, creating unprecedented opportunities for enhancing human capabilities, especially
regarding the decision-making process. However, it raises major legal, security and ethical concerns
on several levels, such as the lack of complete human control, transparency, reliability, accountability
and bias, as such concerns are magnified in the high-risk military sector. In this context, the Dutch
government (the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence) hosted, on February 15 and 16, the first
global summit on responsible artificial intelligence in the military field (REAIM 2023).

The summit aimed to provide a platform for all stakeholders and interested parties to discuss the
main opportunities, challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence applications in the
military field.

The Republic of South Korea participated in organizing the conference which was held in The Hague,
Netherlands and its next session will be held in South Korea.

Both the Netherlands and South Korea are pioneers in the dialogue on the responsible use of AI in
the military field.

Participants in the summit included foreign ministers and other government delegates, in addition to
representatives of knowledge institutions, think tanks and industry as well as civil society
organizations.

Furthermore, the summit was attended by more than 2,000 participants including companies, civil
society organizations, academic circles, think tanks and research centres from 100 countries along
with 80 government representatives.

Key activities included in the summit were 4 high-level sessions, 35 round tables and 20
presentations of artificial intelligence applications in military fields, in addition to an academic forum,
talk shows, a workshop to present innovative ideas, and another for new students and researchers,
all of which aimed to achieve one goal, the coordination of efforts for the responsible use of artificial
intelligence in the military field. Having briefly explained the context of the first international summit
on responsible artificial intelligence in the military field, this intensive study aims to present in the
following lines the summit’s most important goals, topics and results.

1. The main objectives and the mechanisms for achieving them

The development, deployment and use of artificial intelligence in the civilian sphere continue
unabated, thus the scope of military application will increase in the coming years, which raises
questions for the international community about how to deal with the inevitable military application
of artificial intelligence responsibly, regarding the use of force and methods of protecting civilians.
For this purpose, the organizers of the summit invited more than 100 world-renowned specialized
academics with practical experience to answer the following questions: How reliable are the results
produced by the algorithm? How do we improve human-machine interaction? How do we ensure
that AI remains a tool that serves people always subject to human control, including in conflict
situations?

The answer to these questions represents the most important dilemmas that require a balanced
international discussion, some of which have already been addressed at previous global events by
players in the field, such as the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Emerging Technologies in
the Field of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, which discussed the applicability of international
law to autonomous weapons systems and the role of human control.

The most important goals of the 1st REAIM summit included:

Putting the issue of responsible artificial intelligence in the military field at the top of the political
agenda in the world.

Activating the role of a wide range of stakeholders in creating concrete next steps to achieve the first
goal.

Promoting and increasing knowledge related to responsible artificial intelligence in the military field,
through the exchange of experiences and best practices and solutions.

Summit Axes

Analyzing the characteristics of AI by discussing what we need to know about the technical aspects
of AI to understand how it can be applied responsibly in a military context.

Studying ways to responsibly disseminate and use artificial intelligence, by discussing what the
military applications of artificial intelligence mean? What are the main benefits and weaknesses of
AI?

Theorizing frameworks for the governance of the responsible use of AI, by examining existing
frameworks to ensure that AI is applied responsibly in the military field and then working to
strengthen them with additional frameworks that can promote the responsible use of AI in the
military field and enable stakeholders to contribute to this.
2. The most important events and what the summit covered

Keynote speeches

The keynote speakers at the summit included Ms Marietje Schaake, international policy director at
Stanford University Cyber Policy Center, who emphasized that despite the attempts to address and
mitigate human rights challenges and other issues arising from the use of artificial intelligence and
automated decision-making technologies in both the public and private sectors, significant gaps exist
in the use of AI for national security and military purposes, including in the area of autonomous
weapon systems.

Workshops

The most significant of which was a workshop on the opportunities offered by artificial intelligence,
in addition to the challenges it poses regarding achieving stability in conflict areas, through a
multidisciplinary approach for identifying and dealing with risks.

Simulations (a day in the life of an AI user in the military)

Challenges arise when we want to translate the principles of responsible use in the military into
practice, as questions such as: “Do we prefer an open and transparent system over a private and
secure one?” must be tested in practice.

The interactive simulation model allows for a realistic military scenario using artificial intelligence and
every time a decision is made, the audience will have a difficult choice to make and their choices will
determine how the story unfolds through in simulation model.

Polls

As a part of the annual NATO polls, the summit conducted a poll, to measure how much ordinary
people know about artificial intelligence and its military applications, and how they see the use of
artificial intelligence and automated and autonomous weapons as a threat to humanity or a blessing
for the human soldier in complex situations and a way to limit losses?
Panel discussions

The most important panel discussions included:

A session on common civil and military challenges in regulating artificial intelligence

The session discussed the common challenges of regulating the use of artificial intelligence in the
civil and military sectors and the measures that policymakers can take to ensure the protection of
human rights and international humanitarian law, to ensure accountability in the main areas in which
artificial intelligence technologies and automated decision-making are used, including in the areas of
National security and defence.

A session on The Trustworthy Collaboration between Man and Machine: The Next Phase of Evolution

This session discussed how humans and AI can successfully collaborate in military contexts, including
safe reconnaissance and perimeter protection.

A session on Addressing the Ethical and Technical Challenges of AWS

The session revealed more than 60 ethical and technical challenges regarding the development, use
and management of autonomous weapons systems, discussing how to deal with these ethical and
technical challenges to determine what can go right or wrong at each stage of the life cycle of these
weapons, and how human decision-making at each stage affects the results of their use.

A session on whether to use artificial intelligence or not?

(It aimed to debunk popular ideas about military artificial intelligence)

This session was organised by Chatham House to rethink some of the common ideas that may lead to
potentially ineffective or even harmful decisions regarding the use and management of AI.

A session on reducing the potential harm of artificial intelligence to civilians and mitigating the
effects of war
The session discussed how to use artificial intelligence to reduce harm to civilians and mitigate the
effects of war, discussing whether the benefits of artificial intelligence to civilians outweigh its risks.

A session on the suitable AI framework for the military field; development and critical evaluation

The session discussed the most important risks of using artificial intelligence including privacy
breaches, embedded bias, potential abuse, and unintended consequences, proposing a specific
approach to meaningful human control that could contribute to the development of the responsible
use of AI in the military domain.

A session on Linking Artificial Intelligence with Security: Artificial Intelligence Threats, Measures and
Guarantees

The session discussed some countermeasures to hostile AI attacks, producing a booklet on the
subject that brought together experts in AI and cybersecurity experts.

A session on the Era of Artificial Intelligence & The Responsible Innovation of Military Artificial
Intelligence

The development of artificial intelligence systems requires close cooperation between the end user,
industrial, technological and commercial institutions, think tanks and research centres. The session
discussed best experiences and practices related to the development of a responsible AI.

A session on The Use of Artificial Intelligence in Innovation in the Fields of Military Industrialization

This session explored how artificial intelligence can shape and influence the world’s strategically
important militaries.

A session on The Development and Deployment of Responsible AI in a Multinational Military

Environment

The session discussed how to apply the NATO principles for the responsible use of AI in the military
sector, which is achieved through the following tools:

Analyzing AI trends through insights into civil technology research in various fields, fueled by several
million academic papers.
Standards analysis by comparing over 244,000 military and commercial standards to give guidance
on applicable standards.

Assessment of flexibility in the use of artificial intelligence in the military field, using several different
open and non-open data sources to present the extent of flexibility for each of the 7 core areas of
NATO.

A session on the Extent of Countries’ Commitment to Protecting the Cybersecurity of Their

Autonomous Weapons

This session attempted to answer whether states are obligated to protect the cybersecurity of their
weapons and protect civilians from the misuse of those weapons.

A session on The AI Revolution in Military Affairs

That session was dedicated to answering the following questions: Can artificial intelligence create a
new revolution in military affairs? What is the impact of this technology on strategic stability and
current arms control mechanisms?

A session on Civilian Lessons for the First Armies in the Responsible Use of AI

This session highlighted the similarities between civic initiatives around the world aimed at
enhancing the benefits of using artificial intelligence and reducing its risks.

A session on Decision Support Systems and Human-Machine Interaction (HMI)

The session provided multiple insights into how to design and orchestrate effective human-machine
interaction (HMI) in the context of military decision support systems.

A session on How to Come Up with a Practical Approach to Responsible AI

This session discussed the best and worst practices of using artificial intelligence.

A session on How To Integrate The System of Values in the Manufacture and Use of Weapons
Enhanced by AI
The nature of the military field makes activating values and principles in its industrialization difficult.
This session aims to answer the following question: How do we ensure and assess that military
technology is designed and used responsibly?

A session on The Challenges Of Drones

The emergence of swarms of artificial intelligence-powered drones on the battlefield will have
tactical, operational and strategic repercussions.

As it promises broad and profound changes in military operations, and this interactive session
explored these changes on the geopolitical, legal and ethical levels.

A session on The Irresponsibility of The Reductive Discussion of The Use of AI in the Military Field

The session found that AI technologies should occupy a much broader scope than what the current
mainstream debates on the ethics of military AI suggest as the predominant focus is on lethal
autonomous weapons systems.

Furthermore, participants emphasized that the discussion should not be limited to the dangers of
military AI but includes the opportunities it presents.

The Academic Forum

Scholars and experts from various disciplines met to discuss relevant legal, ethical, philosophical, and
technical dilemmas and opportunities in the field of responsible development and use of military AI.
The forum aimed to establish a dialogue between academics, military personnel, and political
decision-makers on:

How to scale up the use of responsible AI in governments and militaries.

The use of hybrid AI systems for security and autonomy.

How to make artificial intelligence a trusted advisor in military decisions.

How to reach a new strategic political and technical framework for developing digital defence
capabilities.
How to develop reliable algorithms for military robots in complex environments.

3. The Most Important Results of the Summit

A Permanent Global Committee on Responsible AI in the Military Field

Summit participants stressed the need to put the responsible use of AI at the top of the political
agenda of governments and international organizations and to further promote initiatives that
contribute in this regard.

Thus, the summit established a permanent global committee on artificial intelligence to raise overall
awareness, clarify how to responsibly use it in the military field, determine how to responsibly
develop, manufacture and deploy this technology, and define the conditions for effective governance
of AI in the military field.

Developing A Common International Agenda

The responsible use of artificial intelligence in the military field is guaranteed within the parameters
of current international law. With the aim of:

Assisting countries in taking the necessary steps regarding the responsible application of artificial
intelligence in the military field.

Concluding agreements between countries and other relevant actors.

Coordinating the efforts of various existing consultative structures, including those belonging to the
United Nations and various regional organizations.

Ensuring the existence of a constructive dialogue through the exchange of knowledge and
experience.

Cooperating with knowledge institutions, civil society organizations, the private sector and political
actors.

Updating the agenda regularly through developments and new studies in the field.

In this context, Wopke Hoekstra, Minister of Foreign Affairs, added reaching international
agreements in this field to the work of the committee and stated that the Netherlands will remain
the driving force behind these efforts.

For her part, Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren stressed that artificial intelligence is of crucial
importance for the future of armed forces, stating that artificial intelligence can do the following for
armies:
1. Making military missions operationally and logistically simpler and more efficient.

2. Enabling us to make faster and more informed decisions, thus protecting our forces and limiting
harm and losses as much as possible, to ensure the responsible use of artificial intelligence by
continuously working closely with our partners within existing alliances, such as the EU and NATO, as
well as NGOs and thought, study, educational and knowledge centres and institutions, as well as
companies. By doing so, we will invest in our democracy and our freedom.

Conclusion

Artificial intelligence is developing rapidly, and humanity must prepare to take the necessary
measures as soon as possible. Therefore, the summit aimed to prevent the misuse of artificial
intelligence in the military field and to educate the international community on the potential risks of
using AI and the importance of responsible development and use of AI.

In this context, we can say that the summit represented an important step in this path, thanks to the
cross-border cooperation between a European country, namely the Netherlands, and an Asian
country, which is South Korea.

Those interested in the responsible use of artificial intelligence in the military field are waiting for the
second international summit to be held in South Korea.

«By: Dr Wael Saleh, PhD

(Expert, Trends Research & Advisory)

ChatGPT The Future Information Wars & Who Gains Control?

1 April 2023

On February 06, 2023, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum tweeted instructions
for the relevant authorities to submit an urgent study to the Council of Ministers on the best way for
the government to benefit from new artificial intelligence technologies, specifically Chat GPT and its
future effects on the educational, health, media and other sectors, in addition to how the
government can deal positively and safely with these technologies.
This tweet made the interest of the UAE’s wise leadership in information technology and its impact
on various sectors quite clear.

Furthermore, it showed awareness and a profound understanding of the international reality and the
potential challenges posed by this technology, which require study and analysis to benefit from it.

Per these explicit directives from His Highness to study the Chat GPT program to benefit from it in
various fields, many government sectors have experimented with this program.

His Excellency Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority,
announced that the authority is working to enrich its services with Chat GPT technology with the
support of Microsoft so that it can benefit from it in its various internal and external services, making
the Authority the first public service institution in the world and the first government institution in
the United Arab Emirates to use this new technology.

It didn’t take long for the UAE’s Ministry of Education to follow suit, and His Excellency Dr Ahmad
Belhoul Al Falasi, Minister of Education, announced that students would be allowed to use this
advanced technology, and conduct a comprehensive study of the Emirati educational curriculum, in
accordance with the new technological developments brought about by this program, especially
since education in the country is on the verge of a fundamental revolution.

These moves taken by some government institutions constitute a first step on the path towards the
use of the Chat GPT program by other bodies and institutions in a way that serves the state’s
directions in this field and achieves the goals of these sectors and strengthens their capabilities, in
line with the state’s sheikhs and leaders’ future vision.

What is Chat GPT and how does it work?

Chat GPT is a dialogue-based AI chatbot capable of understanding natural human language and
generating impressively accurate human-like texts.

It is a linguistic model that relies mainly on artificial intelligence, which has been trained in different
languages to enable it to create new texts and respond to questions and conversations in a human-
like manner, as it mainly relies on deep learning technology to better understand texts and answer
questions, and it can be used in various fields such as translation, customer services, education,
health, e-commerce and more.
This program works by analyzing texts, learning from them, and using this information to create new
texts and respond to various questions.

Furthermore, it can be used to create messages, emails, instant messaging, content generation,
machine translation, and more.

Chat GPT is a modern and innovative technology in the field of artificial intelligence that is
increasingly being used in various fields.

This new program is trained using artificial intelligence technology to generate texts, relying on
analyzing and understanding natural language through the study of the relationships between words
in the text.

Therefore, Chat GPT technology relies on natural language processing in a way similar to the way the
human brain does, where the text is analyzed into small units, such as words and sentences, before
determining the relationships between these units, so that Chat GPT can then be trained on a large
scale using the language data available online, allowing it to learn more complex relationships
between words and generating new texts based on previously learned linguistic patterns within a
previously known and ordered numerical context.

When text is entered into chat GPT, the model uses its prior knowledge to generate a new text based
on the context and meaning, which means it can be used to generate text in many applications, such
as generating letters or automatic replies in a chatbot.

To achieve this high consistency, the original GPT-3 model was trained on a dataset of more than 8
million web pages, enabling it to consistently generate text in a variety of languages and formats.

Chat GPT is a variant of the GPT paradigm that was designed specifically for use in chatbots and
conversational AI systems.

This model is trained on a large data set of chat conversations and can generate appropriate,
consistent and even highly relevant responses.

Aside from generating responses, the program can be used for tasks such as translating, summarizing
text, writing computer code, and answering questions.
Overall, it constitutes a powerful tool for building chatbots and other conversational AI systems that
can interact with users naturally and consistently.

This program is the latest chatbot produced by OpenAI, an independent research organization
founded in late 2015 by Elon Musk, owner of Twitter, along with other investors.

The genie reading your military thoughts

Chat GPT can be used to perform various tasks such as text generation, translation and
understanding questions, as well as answering questions and providing assistance to the user on his
own.

Furthermore, it can admit errors, challenge verbal structures, and reject inappropriate requests.

Real-life applications of Chat GPT can include creating content for websites and responding to
customers’ inquiries, providing recommendations, and creating automated chatbots.

In the future, this program will provide a bot that can do the work for you or even discover new
knowledge for you.

Today, after years of development, this program can collect a data set of military reports, texts, and
information related to a specific topic, and then use it to automatically create summaries of the
information contained in the reports or to identify key pieces of information that may not be
immediately apparent.

This key feature allows for text summarization and analysis of large data sets, such as news articles,
social media posts, or government documents concisely and consistently, to quickly identify
important information and trends and develop accurate knowledge of the enemy, whether it be
people, organizations, or locations.

Currently, Chat GPT is used to analyze the feelings expressed in the data, whether positive, negative
or neutral, in addition, it can help provide a better understanding of people’s feelings about a
particular topic, which can help in developing a tailored military propaganda strategy based on
accurate information.

The start of information wars & Chatbots are at the heart of war propaganda
For years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been used in media wars, and its presence is common in the
process of mass distribution of messages, especially with the use of bots or fake accounts on Twitter
and other social platforms, however, the use of artificial intelligence in information warfare has never
gone beyond the widespread repetition of rather simple messages. But does Chat GPT use a bot
capable of writing content that simulates simple human writing styles?

The answer to that question is “No”, it is about a new revolution in the way information is obtained,
analyzed, disseminated and manipulated.

The information war started years ago, specifically when Microsoft and Google announced the
integration of chatbots that generate text in their BingGPT search engine, and in 2020, tech giants
managed to build models that simulate ChatGPT, such as Google’s LamDA2.

At the end of 2021, Nvidia and Microsoft boasted of developing an English language model with the
largest number of parameters, 530 billion, for natural language generation.

Around the same year, the Chinese company “Megatron-Turing” announced the creation of Baidu.

For years now, governments, organizations and companies have been integrating AI solutions into
their media campaigns, particularly through the use of “chatbots” specially programmed to simulate
a natural language conversation, which can help users solve a problem, order products or procure a
service, as seen in on websites such as SNCF, Orange, Fnac, IKEA, and other companies such as Alexa
from Amazon or Siri from Apple, which managed to use these bots to explain complex concepts in a
way that is simple and understandable to their wide audience and provide answers fluently and
reliably.

Over the past few years, these companies have developed their programs quickly and efficiently
because they firmly believe that future information wars will be decisive, especially if they are used
in military fields.

In military information warfare, ChatGPT can analyze data from sensors and other sources to identify
and track targets on the battlefield, which is typically used to improve the accuracy and effectiveness
of autonomous systems on the battlefield, as well as assess risks to make better decisions about how
to operate safely and effectively.

The program may be used to obtain very accurate information, such as private documents and
methods of their retrieval, or to extract and track specific information from text data, such as names,
dates, or locations, as well as verify whether military information is accurate and complete.
At the logistical level, the program enables the management of military stocks, analyzing text data on
invoices or shipping documents, and extracting information about the quantity, type, and location of
stocks.

This allows for tracking stock levels and ensuring the availability of supplies when needed.

Furthermore, it helps analyze flight plan data and extract information about transportation routes
and timetables to enable the creation of a clear strategy to confront the enemy during battles.

Given that a large part of the information and propaganda wars takes place at the level of social
networking sites, Chat GPT will become a priority for military institutions in analyzing the large
amount of information circulating on these platforms, and working to extract important information
about public opinion, sentiment and common topics, especially those that analyze the positions of a
certain group or message to determine its agenda.

However, the capabilities of Chat GPT do not stop at this level of information analysis in the service
of military strategies, it can also be used effectively in deepfake campaigns, such as creating false
texts and press releases, or even speeches that correspond to a specific agenda or message, such as
formulating a press release that frames a specific military operation in a positive or negative light,
before distributing it to the media, or creating deep fake videos, which can then be used to
impersonate political figures or military leaders, or spread false information.

Furthermore, this software can analyze images, videos, natural language processing, and speech
recognition to detect and identify objects, people, or other features of interest through security
camera footage, and even translate speech to extract valuable information or detect suspicious
activity.

It can also analyze text such as social media posts or chat messages, to detect patterns or keywords
that indicate irregular activity.

Overall, Chat GPT can be used in many fields of military information, which would make information
war the real and decisive war before the direct confrontation.

The software can develop itself to give us accurate information about the simplest and most complex
topics, as it can predict the weather for months to come and give you accurate terrain analysis down
to the military information that can help you develop accurate and effective strategies such as
generating realistic scenarios and simulating real battles.
Ghost editor & Misinformation and propaganda wars

Many experts in the field of information warfare, propaganda and misinformation believe that Chat
GPT is particularly suitable for conducting these types of campaigns by simulating people’s writing
styles and skillfully generating huge amounts of different messages.

This technology can effectively spread false information without the need for human staff, relying
only on machines to create diverse and believable content, as you can program millions of these bots
to act like humans and have conversations designed to convince people of a certain point of view.

In fact, through this software, a bot can act as a “ghost editor” for propaganda media campaigns by
publishing thousands of articles and counter-articles, a technique that global information companies
are actively seeking to use as the bot-generated content and human-written content become
identical.

On the other hand, this software can be an important and effective tool for detecting manipulations
and thwarting misleading propaganda wars, especially in the military field by using the same
mechanism in detecting manipulations and weaknesses, especially if hackers are used in this type of
war.

Recently, some hackers admitted that the program effectively helps them discover vulnerabilities
faster, a process that in the past needed longer, more than one program and multiple techniques,
because traditional virtual assistants couldn’t accurately find a vulnerability in a system that they
aren’t preprogrammed to find, as they fed on specific information and couldn’t develop their search
methods and discover security vulnerabilities that humans hadn’t already discovered.

Therefore, it constitutes a very effective tool for technicians in detecting phishing emails, malicious
links and other forms of social engineering attacks, especially emails that appear to come from a
legitimate source, such as a bank or government agency, and trick recipients into providing sensitive
information or clicking on a malicious link, as well as identifying and extracting information relevant
to cyber security, such as phishing attempts and cyber attacks.

By: Dr Faisal Farhi (professor and university researcher)

Al Jundi
2 Trillion Dollars Global military spending – A geopolitical analysis

1 June 2023

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on March-April 2022,
covering the period from 2018 to 2022, revealed that global military spending set a new record,
rising by 7.3% to reach $24.2 trillion. Through a geopolitical analysis of this report, the following file
will try to first identify some of the most important aspects of continuity and change in the ranking of
the countries that spend the most in the military field, and secondly identify the trends in arms
transfers and the main winners and losers of these transfers. Finally, it will look at the future of the
most important arms suppliers in the short term.

1 The countries spending the most on arms in 2022, between continuity and change

The report revealed that the United States remains at the top of the list of countries with the largest
military spending in the world, with $877 billion (including $19.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine).

This means that USA spends on its military 3 times more than China which spends $292 billion, and
10 times more than Russia, which spends 84 billion and moved from 5 th to 3rd place due to the
Russian-Ukrainian war.

Furthermore, this war was the main reason for the highest increase in military spending in Europe in
30 years, which amounted to 13%.

Thus, the increase led many former Eastern Bloc countries to double their military spending since
2014, the year Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

SIPRI also pointed out that India and Saudi Arabia have joined the club of major military-spending
countries, with India ranking 4th and Saudi Arabia ranking 5th in 2022, as shown in the table below.

2 Arms Transfers Trends: Winners & Losers

One of the most important findings of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s report
is that the recent period from 2018 to 2022 has witnessed a decrease in arms transfers (i.e. arms
trade and military aid) at the international level, by 5% compared to the period from 2013 to 2017.

However, by monitoring the military spending trends of European countries, the report revealed an
increase in arms transfer to Europe, which can be summarized in the following points:

1. Many former Eastern Bloc countries have doubled their military spending since 2014 after Russia
annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

2. Central and Western European countries spent a total of $345 billion on their armed forces in
2022.

3. European countries such as Poland, the Netherlands, and Sweden have significantly increased
their military investments during the last decade.

4. The high cost of technologically advanced weapons explains the increase in European military
spending, as in the case of Finland, which purchased 64 American F-35 fighter jets last year.

5. Germany still ranks 7th on the list of the highest military spending countries, even after an increase
of 3.2%.

6. Ukraine saw an increase of 640%, rose from 36th on the list to 11th last year, and became the
world’s third largest recipient of weapons in 2022.

7. European countries’ imports of weapons were mainly obtained from the US, with a total of 47% of
their imports.

This can be summarized as the existence of:

1. A significant decrease in international arms transfers, with Africa experiencing a decline of 40%.

2. A substantial increase in arms transfers to European countries.

3. A significant increase in the role of the US as a global arms supplier.

4. More Asian countries, including India and Saudi Arabia, have entered the list of the top military
spenders in 2022, ranking fourth and fifth, respectively.

3 The top 25 arms exporting countries and their main importers in the period between 2018-2022:
Main indications and signals

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute revealed that the list of the largest
arms-exporting countries included USA (40%), Russia (16%), France (11%), China (5.2%), Germany
(4.2%), Italy (3.8%), Britain (3.2%), Spain (2.6%), South Korea (2.4%), and Israel (2.3%).

While the United Arab Emirates and Jordan have joined the arms exporting club and secured their
place among the top 25 arms exporting countries. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt were
among the world’s top 10 arms importers.

Aside from the US, Russia, and France, the 7 remaining largest arms exporting countries in the world
include 5 that saw a decline in their arms exports: China (-23%), Germany (-35%), the United
Kingdom (-35%), Spain (-4.4%), and Israel (-15%). Meanwhile, Italy (+45%) and South Korea (+74%)
experienced strong increases.

The report confirmed that India remains the world’s largest arms importer, despite a decrease in
imports by 11% between 2013-2017 and 2018-2022. This decrease is due to a complex purchasing
process, diversification of arms suppliers, and attempts to replace imports with local manufacturing.

One of the main results highlighted by the report is the increase in American and French arms
exports and the decrease in Russian exports, as the gap between the US as the largest arms exporter
and Russia as the second largest has widened significantly.

However, this may be due to Russia’s need for weapons in the context of Ukrainian-Russian war and
the trade sanctions imposed on Russia because of that conflict.

As a result, the gap between Russia and France, the third largest arms exporter in the world, has
narrowed, as France has increased its exports by 44% and has surpassed the US to become India’s
second-largest arms supplier after Russia.
The report also shows that the vast majority of arms imports in the Middle East come from the US
(54%), followed by France (12%), then Russia (8.6%) and Italy (8.4%). These include over 260
advanced aircraft, 516 new tanks, and 13 frigates.

The report notes that the UAE’s ranking in the list of the world’s largest arms importers has declined
from 5th place in the 2013-2017 report to 11 th place in the 2018-2022 report. This decline in the
country’s arms imports can be attributed to its shift towards manufacturing part of its own weapons
and exporting the surplus.

This policy has been successful, and the UAE has even risen to 18 th place among the world’s largest
arms exporters.

The following table shows the most important alliances and geopolitical interests based on the
largest 25 arms-exporting countries and their main importers between 2018-2022:

The main features of these alliances and the interlocking of geopolitical interests can be summarized
as follows:

1. Egypt is the largest importer of arms from the UAE and Germany and the second largest importer
from Jordan and Italy, and the third largest importer of arms from Russia and France.

2. Egypt, Jordan, and Algeria are respectively the largest importers of arms from the UAE, which is
the largest importer of arms from South Africa and the second-largest importer of arms from Canada
and Turkey.

3. Saudi Arabia is the largest importer of arms from 3 countries at once, namely the United States,
Belgium, and Canada, and the second largest importer of arms from Spain and the 3 rd largest
importer of arms from England.

4. Qatar is the largest importer of arms from Turkey and the second largest importer of arms from
France and England.

5. The United States, Egypt, and Armenia are respectively the largest importers of arms from Jordan,
which is the second largest importer of arms from the UAE. Tunisia, on the other hand, is the third
most important importer of arms from the Netherlands.
6. India, Azerbaijan, and the Philippines are the largest importers of arms from Israel, the 9 th largest
arms exporter in the world, and at the same time the 3 rd largest importer of arms from Germany.

7. Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Australia are the largest importers of arms from the world’s largest arms
supplier, the United States, which is, in turn, the largest importer of arms from England, Norway, and
Jordan and the second largest importer of arms from South Africa and the third largest importer of
arms from Canada and Australia.

8. India, China, and Egypt are the largest importers of arms from Russia and the second largest arms
supplier in the world.

9. India is the largest importer of arms from Russia and China and the third largest importer of arms
from South Korea.

10. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Serbia are the largest importers of arms from China, which is the
largest importer of arms from Ukraine and the second largest importer of arms from Russia.

Conclusion: Will there be any changes in the future of the most important weapons suppliers?

Although it is difficult to make predictions about future trends in arms transfers, data on agreed-
upon future weapon orders and negotiations that have reached their final stages regarding arms
supply can indicate the countries that will be among the largest arms exporters in the coming years.

Based on these indications, as shown in the table below, it is almost certain that the United States
will remain the largest exporter of major weapons after 2023, especially given that around 60% of
the total number of fighter aircraft to be purchased in the coming years are American-made. While
Russia, which was the second-largest exporter of weapons in the world in 2018-2022, has a relatively
low number of orders.

On the other hand, France has numerous orders for aircraft and ships, which could enhance its
position as a weapons supplier in the coming years and Germany has orders that are almost
exclusively limited to warships.●

» By: Dr. Wael Saleh, PhD (Expert at Trends Research & Advisory