Costa Rica Economic Outlook 2021
Costa Rica Economic Outlook 2021
COSTA RICA
1. General trends
Costa Rica's economy shrank by 4.1% in 2020, largely as a consequence of the measures taken to
deal with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the weakening of external demand. The labour
market and fiscal accounts were also hit hard by the pandemic. The unemployment rate averaged 19.6%
for the year, up from 11.8% in 2019; in the fourth quarter, it stood at 20%, after peaking at 24% in the
second quarter. The deterioration in public finances ––the central government's financial deficit closed out
the year at 8.1% of GDP compared with 6.7% in 2019–– was mainly attributable to the drop in revenues
caused by the slackening of economic activity and the temporary moratorium on tax payments. The current
account deficit edged up to 2.4% of GDP (from 2.3% in 2019), as the contraction in goods imports was
offset by a sharp drop in tourism receipts. Year-on-year inflation slowed to 0.9% at the end of 2020 (down
from 1.5% in 2019) owing to weak demand, high unemployment and falling international fuel prices.
In an effort to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, on 16 March 2020 the Costa Rican government
introduced various measures dealing with social distancing and restrictions on movement, including the
suspension of in-person classes in all the country’s educational centres; the temporary closure of national
parks, bars, beaches and places of worship; and the establishment of telecommuting arrangements for
workers in the public and private sectors. In the second half of the year, these measures were gradually
eased and various macroeconomic policies were put in place to counteract their negative effects. The central
bank stepped up its expansionary monetary policy by reducing the benchmark interest rate and providing
liquidity to the international financial system, among other steps. Fiscal policy measures included a
temporary moratorium on tax payments and monetary transfers to the families most affected by the
restrictions imposed to cope with the pandemic.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that Costa
Rica’s GDP will grow by 3.7% in real terms in 2021. Manufacturing will continue to exhibit strong growth,
which will be driven by free-trade zone economic activity. Hotels and restaurants will continue to be hard
hit. Costa Rica has made significant progress in vaccinating the population against COVID-19; according
to official figures, more than half of the population had already received at least one dose of the vaccine by
the end of June 2021. The central government's financial deficit is expected to decline by approximately 1
percentage point of GDP to around 7% as a result of a recovery in economic activity and tax revenues along
with the government’s continued efforts to consolidate expenditures and reduce the burden of interest
payments on the debt. The current account deficit is expected to increase, mainly as a result of the
reactivation of imports and higher international fuel prices. As demand is likely to remain weak, it is not
expected to put pressure on price levels; year-on-year inflation as of December 2021 is projected to be near
the floor of the central bank’s target range (3% plus or minus 1 percentage point).
2. Economic policy
In 2020, the government implemented various fiscal measures to address the economic impact of
the pandemic. On the revenue side, the COVID-19 Tax Relief Act, which was promulgated in late March,
introduced a temporary moratorium on the payment of profit, excise and value added taxes. A temporary
2 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
75% reduction in the floor rate for contributions to health insurance and pensions funds was also approved.
On the expenditure side, a freeze on public-sector wages was decreed, vacant posts were eliminated and the
regular budget was cut, particularly in the case of allocations for goods and services, protocol expenses and
training. The Plan Proteger (Protection Plan) was put into place in March 2020, providing relief payments
to people who have lost their jobs or whose work hours have been reduced and to independent or informal
workers who have seen a drop in income. These transfers amounted to the equivalent of 0.8% of GDP.
In 2020, the narrowly-defined global public sector ran a cumulative financial deficit equivalent to 7.4% of
GDP, which was 2.0 percentage points higher than it had been in 2019. This result reflected an increase in the
central government financial deficit and a decrease in the surplus of the rest of the public sector.
In the first two months of 2020, central government revenues improved as a result of the
implementation of the Public Finances Reinforcement Act, but from March onward, they were driven down
by the economic fallout from the pandemic. Total revenues thus closed out 2020 with a decrease of 11.6%
in real terms. Tax revenues were also down by 11.6% and thus amounted to 12.3% of GDP for a drop of
1.4 percentage points from their level at the close of 2019. Income taxes also fell by the same amount
(11.6%) in real terms in 2020 owing to slack economic activity and the tax moratorium. Receipts from the
consolidated fuel tax and from taxes on imports were both down sharply (by 21.5% and 19.2%,
respectively). Value added tax collections, on the other hand, registered a real increase of 6.4%; this was
mainly attributable to the fact that the base of comparison was quite low, since only the general sales tax,
which does not apply to most service activities, was levied in the first half of 2019.
Total central government spending dropped by 3.2% in real terms in 2020. The measures adopted
in response to the pandemic entailed higher levels of spending on health care and social transfers to the
people who were most affected by the pandemic in economic terms, but capital expenditure was sharply
lower (a reduction of 41.2% in real terms). This reflected the decrease in available funds owing to the
reduction in excise tax receipts and the effect of having a low base of comparison owing to the high level
of extraordinary non-recurrent expenses incurred in 2019. Current expenditure grew slightly in real terms
(0.8%), as the 0.5% decline in the wage bill was offset by an upswing in interest payments (10.0%).
As a result of the larger fiscal deficit and the contraction of economic activity, at the end of 2020
overall public-sector and central government debt represented 83.2% and 67.5% of GDP, respectively,
which was 11.4 and 10.9 percentage points higher than the year-end figures for 2019 and the highest to be
recorded since the early 1980s.
The country had ample access to loans from multilateral organizations. Borrowings approved by
the Legislative Assembly in 2020 amounted to US$ 1.402 billion: US$ 522 million from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), US$ 500 million from the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) and US$ 380
million from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the French Development Agency (AFD).
These loans are part of a strategy being used by the Ministry of Finance to refinance debt on better terms.
In the first six months of 2021, total central government revenues showed real growth of 34.9%
over the same period in 2020. This upturn was driven by tax revenues, which rose by 31.4%. There are
several reasons for this notable increase: (i) the recovery of economic activity; (ii) the fact that the
moratorium on the payment of taxes in 2020 was not extended in 2021, so the deferred payments had to be
made in the early months of 2021; (iii) the entry into force of administrative changes entailing the
adjustment of the fiscal year to coincide with the calendar year, which meant that, in this one instance, the
tax payments made in early 2021 covered a period of 15 months, instead of 12; and (iv) the fact that, starting
in 2021, the budget reports of decentralized bodies of the central government will be bundled into the main
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean ▪ 2021 3
report on the national budget. If the trend seen thus far continues, this means that the tax burden will be
around 13% as of the end of 2021.
Total central government expenditures climbed by 4.8% in real terms in the first six months of
2021. Since revenues rose more than this, the Ministry of Finance expects the central government’s primary
deficit to be equivalent to 0.7% of GDP and the financial deficit to come to 7.0% of GDP.
The Ministry of Finance is continuing to restructure the government’s debt and, as part of its
strategy for doing so, a US$ 1.778 billion loan from IMF was approved in July by the Legislative Assembly.
The central government’s debt reached the equivalent of 69.5% of GDP in March 2021, which was 2.4
percentage points higher than at the end of 2020.
In 2020, the central bank took several steps to counteract the negative economic impact of the
pandemic. On the one hand, it intensified the expansionary monetary policy that it had been implementing
since 2019. In the first half of 2020, it lowered the monetary policy rate on three occasions, for a total
cumulative reduction of 200 basis points to an annual rate of 0.75%. In addition, the central bank’s board
of directors approved measures to ensure the liquidity of the financial system. One of these measures opened
up the possibility of purchasing up to 250 billion colones’ worth (about US$ 433 million) of colón-
denominated Ministry of Finance securities on the secondary market. Another was the introduction, in
September, of a credit facility of up to 700 billion colones (equivalent to approximately US$ 1.16 billion),
with the idea being for financial intermediaries to on-lend these resources to the private sector on favourable
financial terms. The central bank has also been working with the authorities responsible for overseeing the
financial system to facilitate the readjustment of loans and improve borrowing terms and conditions.
The lowering of the benchmark interest rate was passed on to rates in the rest of the financial system. The
basic interest rate on deposits was 3.50% in December 2020 (a real rate of 2.6%), compared to 5.75% in December
2019 (4.2% in real terms). Public banks’ negotiated lending rate (weighted average in colones) stood at 7.58% in
December 2020 (6.6% in real terms), compared with 9.42% in December 2019 (7.8% in real terms).
The banking system’s credit to the private sector showed a slight year-on-year decline (0.1%) in
2020 on the back of the marked contraction in economic activity. The decline in foreign-currency
transactions (2.4%) was partially offset by a 0.7% increase in local-currency transactions that was helped
along by lower interest rates and the measures introduced to boost liquidity.
The foreign exchange market came under pressure in the second half of 2020, mainly as a result of
the steep drop in foreign exchange inflows from international tourism. The rate on the foreign exchange
market stood at 615 colones to the dollar at the end of December, for a nominal depreciation of 7.3% relative
to the rate at the close of 2019. The multilateral real effective exchange rate index reflected a depreciation
of 7.98%. Abrupt fluctuations on the foreign exchange market prompted the central bank to actively
intervene in the market, selling a total of US$ 279.6 million in 2020 in order to stabilize the rate. Net
international reserves totalled US$ 7.225 billion at the end of December (the equivalent of 6.3 months’
worth of imports), compared with US$ 8.912 billion at the end of 2019.
In 2021, the central bank has continued to apply its expansionary monetary policy without changing
the reference rate, which remained at a record low (0.75%) during the first seven months of the year. The
central bank also continues to support the liquidity of financial markets by such means as the above-
mentioned credit facility. The backdrop for this monetary policy stance is an economy where the inflation
4 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
rate is below the floor of the central bank’s target band and where economic agents expect inflation to
remain low in the coming years.
The banking system’s credits to the private sector registered a cumulative nominal increase of 2.4%
in the first five months of 2021. In the first half of 2021, the exchange market was under less pressure than
in 2020. The average rate on the foreign exchange market was 621.47 colones to the dollar at the end of
July, which represents a slight nominal depreciation (0.98%) relative to the rate at year-end 2020.
On 25 May 2021, Costa Rica’s membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) was finalized, making it the fourth Latin American country to join the organization.
On 23 February 2021, it was announced that Costa Rica would become a full member of CAF, which will
give the country greater access to financial resources on favourable terms.
The slight increase in the current account deficit is explained by a smaller surplus on the services
account, which was partially offset by a smaller deficit on the goods account. Despite the adverse
international landscape, goods exports grew by 1.7% in 2020 thanks to the strength of exports from the
country’s free-trade zones (5.2%), which offset the downturn in exports not subject to those regimes (2.6%).
Within the first group, shipments of items in the leading export category ––medical and dental instruments
and supplies–– expanded by 6.4%. In the second group, banana exports were up by 8.3%, while pineapple
exports fell by 6.0%. Total goods imports dropped by 9.6% in 2020, with the oil bill plummeting by 45.0%.
Lower oil prices resulted in a 1.4% improvement in the terms of trade.
The surplus on the services account was sharply lower in 2020 (down by 38.7%), as a result of a
66.4% plunge in travel receipts. However, the surplus in services still outweighed the deficit on the goods
account, however. Exports of other services climbed by 2.2% owing to new investments in business
services.
In 2020, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows totalled U$ 2.029 billion, down from $2.655
billion in 2019. The bulk of FDI went to manufacturing and to commerce and services. The United States
continued to be the main investor country.
Central bank estimates put the current account deficit at between 3.5% and 4.1% of GDP in 2021.
The expansion of goods exports will be offset by an increase in goods imports and a moderate recovery of
tourism receipts. The terms of trade is expected to worsen as a consequence of higher international fuel
prices.
In the first half of 2021, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.9% in exports of goods reflected
an expansion of 35.4% in special-regime exports and of 14.9% in exports from the rest of the economy.
The momentum of the precision equipment and medical devices industry remained strong, while exports
from other manufacturing sectors, such as food products and the metal processing and machinery industry,
were also very robust. During this same period, goods imports showed a year-on-year expansion of 22.1%.
The 4.1% decrease in GDP seen in 2020 was the second-largest economic contraction since 1950
—the first year for which national accounts statistics are available— being surpassed only by the 7.3% drop
recorded in 1982. The initial impact of the pandemic began to be felt in the first quarter of 2020, with year-
on-year slippage in GDP amounting to 0.9%. The greatest impact was felt in the second quarter, when GDP
fell by 8.2%, while the decrease was smaller (4.6%) in the second half of the year, as lockdowns and other
restrictions were eased and domestic demand strengthened somewhat.
The steepest declines were observed in accommodations and food services (42.3%) and transport
and storage (23.5%), both of which are linked to tourism and trade in goods. Agricultural activity was hurt
by Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota, contracting by 0.8%, while construction was down by 7.4% as a result
of lower investment in both the private and public sectors. On the other hand, activity in the manufacturing
industry expanded by 4.0%, driven by the dynamism of companies operating under special trade regimes,
as mentioned earlier. Information and communications activities also experienced growth (4.4%) thanks to
a pandemic-related increase in demand.
On the demand side, household consumption contracted by 4.2% owing to a sharp rise in
unemployment and the total or partial closure of many business establishments because of the pandemic.
Gross fixed investment fell by 1.2% as a consequence of decreases in private construction and in public
spending on infrastructure. External demand shrank by 10.5% in real terms, mainly as a result of the drop
in service exports.
In the first quarter of 2021, economic activity exhibited a year-on-year contraction of 1.9%, but the
monthly economic activity index (IMAE) reflected positive year-on-year growth rates for the period from
March to May. On the expenditure side, although consumption and investment are expected to rebound in
2021, both consumption and gross fixed capital formation contracted at year-on-year rates of 1.0% and
8.5%, respectively, in the first quarter of the year.
In 2020, year-on-year monthly inflation was below the central bank's target range. This was mainly
attributable to very weak aggregate demand, high levels of unemployment and lower international fuel
prices. In July and August, inflation rates even dipped into negative territory.
Restrictions on movement and temporary business closures hurt the labour market, causing the
unemployment rate to peak at 24.4% in July 2020, up from 12.4% in December 2019. Thanks to the gradual
relaxation of those measures later on, the rate had slipped back to 20.6% by December 2020. The
underemployment rate also rose sharply from its 11.1% level in December 2019, reaching 20.6% in
December 2020. Meanwhile, the employment rate fell from 55.1% to 48.7% in the same period. The
nominal minimum wage was raised by 2.5%, but in real terms the increase was 1.6%.
The economic repercussions of the pandemic in the labour market, as reflected in increases in
unemployment, can be seen to have been more severe for women than for men when the change in jobless
rates is measured in terms of percentage points, as the average unemployment rate for women rose from
15.3% in 2019 to 25.4% in 2020, while the rate for men climbed from 9.3% to 15.5%.
In the first half of 2021, the labour market continued to recover. In May, the unemployment rate
stood at 17.7%, while the percentage of underemployed persons was 15.7%. The year-on-year change in
the consumer price index remained below 2.0% in the first five months of 2021, but inflation accelerated
in April, May and June (1.21%, 1.34% and 1.91%, respectively).
6 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Table 1
COSTA RICA: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 a/
Capital and financial balance d/ 4 521 2 892 2 340 2 565 1 022 1 770 2 257 2 768 -405
Net foreign direct investment 1 803 2 401 2 818 2 541 2 127 2 652 2 434 2 695 1 644
Other capital movements 2 718 491 -478 24 -1 105 -882 -177 73 -2 050
Overall balance 2 110 461 -113 644 -235 -419 390 1 393 -1 754
Variation in reserve assets e/ -2 110 -461 113 -644 235 419 -390 -1 393 1 754
Table 1 (concluded)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 a/
Central government public debt 34.3 35.9 38.5 41.0 44.9 48.4 51.7 56.5 67.5
Domestic 28.4 28.8 29.8 30.9 34.6 38.2 41.2 44.1 51.5
External 5.9 7.1 8.7 10.1 10.3 10.2 10.5 12.4 16.0
Monetary base 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.8 7.1 8.4
Money (M1) 16.3 17.1 16.9 18.2 18.8 17.5 17.7 18.9 25.4
M2 33.7 35.9 36.5 35.9 34.5 31.9 30.5 30.9 37.0
Foreign-currency deposits 15.7 14.6 16.0 14.7 14.6 14.7 15.1 14.3 18.7
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
a/ Preliminary figures.
b/ Based on figures in local currency at constant 2012 prices.
c/ Based on values calculated in national currency and expressed in current dollars.
d/ Includes errors and omissions.
e/ A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.
f/ Annual average, weighted by the value of goods exports and imports.
g/ Nationwide total. New measurements have been used since 2012; the data are not comparable with the previous series.
h/ Average local-currency deposit rate in the financial system.
i/ Average local-currency lending rate in the financial system.
8 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Table 2
COSTA RICA: MAIN QUARTERLY INDICATORS
2019 2020 2021
Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 a/
Gross international reserves (millions of dollars) 7 832 7 908 7 697 8 607 8 136 8 580 8186 7499.7 7249.7 6972 c/
Real effective exchange rate (index: 2005=100) c/ 81.4 79.7 76.2 76.6 75.7 74.9 78.9 81.7 83.4 84.9 c/
Open unemployment rate e/ 11.3 11.9 11.4 12.4 12.5 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.7 …
Employment rate e/ 55.4 55.5 54.7 55.1 55.5 43.7 46.1 48.7 49.4 …
Consumer prices
(12-month percentage variation) 1.4 2.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.9
Wholesale prices
(12-month percentage variation) 4.1 3.1 1.9 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 0.7 2.7 5.3 6.6 f/
Average nominal exchange rate
(colones per dollar) 607.4 593.3 574.7 575.4 570.3 572.3 591.8 606.4 612.0 616.3
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
a/ Preliminary figures.
b/ Based on figures in local currency at constant 2012 prices.
c/ Figures as of May.
d/ Quarterly average, weighted by the value of goods exports and imports.
e/ Nationwide total.
f/ Figures as of April.
g/ Average local-currency deposit rate in the financial system.
h/ Average local-currency lending rate in the financial system.