Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

AUTHORS

Report on Participatory Research on Climate

Vulnerability

ITB Team
Dr. Armi Susandi, MT
Dr. Saut Sagala
Mamad Tamamadin, [Link].
Hadian Idhar, ST.

PLAN Indonesia
Vanda Lengkong
Amin Magatani
Yohanes B. Joman
Berliana Paulina Dana Dasa
Abidin, S.H

Local Partner

Manu Drestha
Yohannes Brino Tolok
Krisantus Tri Pambudi Raharjo

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 2

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Table of Content

I Introduction .............................................................................................................. 8
1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 8
1.2 Objective........................................................................................................................... 9
1.3 Analytical Framework .............................................................................................10
II Mean Rainfall in Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU)....................................................................... 16
III Spatial Maps of Mean Rainfall
in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province.................................................................. 20
III Climate Change Modeling Procedure to Build Projection
of Climate in Lembata, Sikka, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) ............ 31
IV Mean Temperature in Lembata, Sikka, and
Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) ............................................................................... 34
V Spatial Maps of Mean Temperature
in Nusa Tenggara Timur Region .................................................................................36
VI Projection of Mean Rainfall in Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU)....................................................................... 47
VII Projection of Mean Temperature in Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU)....................................................................... 51
VIII Projection of Sea Level Rise in Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU)....................................................................... 55

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

List of Figures

Figure 1. NTT Province and location of case study areas ...................................... 9

Figure 2. General Research Framework ................................................................ 11
Figure 3. Software of climate model using
Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear Methods
developed by ITB (Susandi et al., 2008) ................................................. 12
Figure 4. Work flow in climate model analysis ..................................................... 13
Figure 5. Plan of research work flow ..................................................................... 15
Figure 6. Comparison of the mean rainfall in during
the last 10 years for three district areas in Nusa Tenggara Timur ...... 18
Figure 7. Mean rainfall in Januari for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ............ 21
Figure 8. Mean rainfall in Februari for NTT Province during 2001-2010 .......... 22
Figure 9. Mean rainfall in Maret for NTT Province during 2001-2010............... 23
Figure 10. Mean rainfall in April for NTT Province during 2001-2010 .............. 24
Figure 11. Mean rainfall in May for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ............... 25
Figure 12. Mean rainfall in June for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ............... 26
Figure 13. Mean rainfall in July for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ................ 26
Figure 14. Mean rainfall in August for NTT Province during 2001-2010 .......... 27
Figure 15. Mean rainfall in September for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ... 27
Figure 16. Mean rainfall in October for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ......... 28
Figure 17. Mean rainfall in November for NTT Province during 2001-2010 .... 29
Figure 18. Mean rainfall in December for NTT Province during 2001-2010 ..... 30
Figure 19. Work flow in model analysis, process continues repetitive
till found acceptable error, value of parameter estimation
early can be taken away from dominant frequency
that produced by second step output. ................................................. 31
Figure 20. Plan of research work flow ................................................................... 32
Figure 21. Mean temperatures in the three study areas
in NTT during the years 2001-2010 .................................................... 35
Figure 22. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2001 ............................. 37

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 23. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2002 ............................. 38

Figure 24. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2003 ............................. 39
Figure 25. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2004 ............................. 40
Figure 26. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2005 ............................. 41
Figure 27. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2006 ............................. 42
Figure 28. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2007 ............................. 43
Figure 29. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2008 ............................. 44
Figure 30. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2009 ............................. 45
Figure 31. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2010 ............................. 46
Figure 32. Projection of Rainfal per year in NTT Province during 2015 ............ 47
Figure 33. Projection of Rainfal per year in NTT Province during 2020 ............ 48
Figure 34. Projection of Rainfal per year in NTT Province during 2025 ............ 49
Figure 35. Projection of Rainfal per year in NTT Province during 2030 ............ 50
Figure 36. Projection of mean temperature in NTT Province during 2015 ....... 52
Figure 37. Projection of mean temperature in NTT Province during 2020 ....... 52
Figure 38. Projection of mean temperature in NTT Province during 2025 ....... 53
Figure 39. Projection of mean temperature in NTT Province during 2030 ....... 54
Figure 40. Global Sea Level Rise (1880 – 2000) ................................................... 56
Figure 41. Sea level rise as observed (from Church and White 2006)
shown in red up to the year 2001, together
with the IPCC (2001) scenarios for 1990-2100. ................................. 57
Figure 42. Flow of SLR assessment ........................................................................ 58
Figure 43. Sea level rise in TTU District in 2010 (base year) .............................. 60
Figure 44. Projection of sea level rise in TTU District in 2020 ............................ 61
Figure 45. Projection of sea level rise in TTU District in 2040 ............................ 61
Figure 46. Projection of sea level rise in TTU District in 2060 ............................ 62
Figure 47. Projection of sea level rise in TTU District in 2080 ............................ 62
Figure 48. Projection of sea level rise in TTU District in 2100 ............................ 63
Figure 49. Sea level rise in Sikka District in 2010 (base year) ............................ 64
Figure 50. Projection of sea level rise in Sikka District in 2020 .......................... 65
Figure 51. Projection of sea level rise in Sikka District in 2040 .......................... 65
Figure 52. Projection of sea level rise in Sikka District in 2060 .......................... 65

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 53. Projection of sea level rise in Sikka District in 2080 .......................... 66
Figure 54. Projection of sea level rise in Sikka District in 2100 .......................... 66
Figure 55. Sea level rise in Lembata District in 2010 (base year)....................... 67
Figure 56. Projection of sea level rise in Lembata District in 2020 .................... 68
Figure 57. Projection of sea level rise in Lembata District in 2040 .................... 68
Figure 58. Projection of sea level rise in Lembata District in 2060 .................... 69
Figure 59. Projection of sea level rise in Lembata District in 2080 .................... 69
Figure 60. Projection of sea level rise in Lembata District in 2100 .................... 70

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

List of Tables

Table 1. Mean rainfall (mm/month) during the years 2001-2010

in the three study areas (Lembata, Sikka, and TTU) at NTT .................. 17
Table 2. Data on mean monthly temperature
in 3 districts of East Nusa Tenggara ......................................................... 35

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

I Introduction

1.1 Background

Indonesia faces many challenges to meet the Millennium Development Goals

(MDG) targets, especially with rapidly degrading ecosystems, climate change
and increasing vulnerability to disasters. In order to develop appropriate
adaptation actions, Indonesia needs to develop scenarios and understanding of
what the climate future will hold. Up until now, the study that incorporated the
integration between climate models and scenarios with adaptive capacity
scenario as well as climate vulnerability isstill rare. This has caused a lot of
uncertainties in developing adaptations that are suitable in particular regions.
Hence, a study that integrated both the climate model and the adaptive capacity
scenario needs to be conducted at the national, provincial and district level.

Indonesia’s Climate change vulnerability is augmented by its extensive

coastlines and the fact that 44% of the population relied on agriculture for their
livelihoods. East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) is selected as the study area for this
research due to its condition as one of Indonesia’s most disaster-prone areas.
The location of this research is in Lembata, Sikka and Timor Tengah Utara
Districts (figure 1).

This book is part one of three books that present the reports from the study of
“Participatory Research on Climate Vulnerability in NTT”. The first book (this
book) covers the current issue of climate model (the mean rainfall, mean
temperature, and sea level rise) and its projection. The second book presents
the current issues of socio-economic condition and adaptive capacities as well
as its projections. The third book integrates the issues of climate models,
adaptive capacities and recommendation of adaptation options in dealing with
the climate vulnerability.

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 1. The NTT Province and location of case study areas

1.2 Objective

The objective of the study in general was to develop participatory climate

vulnerability of three districts in NTT (Sikka, Lembata and TTU). To achieve this
objective, the proposed research used an innovative science-based approach to
study the implications of climate change, therefore increasing the accuracy in
assessing climate change vulnerability and also the effectiveness rate of the
adaptation options. The research used the Climate Smart Disaster Risk
Management approach that Plan was currently implementing across a number
of countries, which is funded by the DFID. The method and tools used through
this research project aimed to build capacities in the three districts for
adaptation to climate change, using a methodology that combined both science
based and participatory approaches.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

To ensure the participatory process, the research was conducted through

partnership between Plan International, The Bandung Institute of Technology
(ITB), University of Timor, local academics and research institutions, DRR
practitioners and managers, the local Government, and members of the
community that would be affected, including women and children.

The objective of this book is to provide the results from analysis of the climate
model. This book will discuss research results on projection of climate,
projection of sea level rises, climate hazards in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor
Tengah Utara (TTU). This book will also show the types of climate hazard that
have the potential to occur in the 3 district areas.

1.3 Analytical Framework

In the analytical process, the general research framework was presented as

follows (See Figure 2). First, the climate model was analyzed (this book) in
detail using the consideration of mean rainfall, mean temperature and sea level
rise. The adaptive capacity was analyzed using several indicators related to
socio-economic and infrastructure matters of the districts. The results of the
two analyses were integrated into a participatory climate vulnerability analysis
showing the results of scenario of the climate as well as the adaptive capacity.
Subsequently, the adaptation options were developed based on the scenarios in
the participatory climate vulnerability. In each step, focus group discussions
were carried with local policy and decision makers and local communities.

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 2. General Research Framework

To build projection maps, both primary and secondary data will be classified
based on their variability in size and time-frame. The variable data
includerainfall data, temperatures, sea level rise data, hydrological data,
prosperity level data, and population data.

All data are parameters to be projected in the future using a climate model:
projections made for the year 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. It is the same
approach with the one adopted in the past by ITB while assessing climate
change vulnerability in Jakarta will also be adopted, with few improvements this
time in terms of its methodology. The previous vulnerability assessments done
by ITB used the framework of the United Nations’ Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) to make climate projections: as a result, climate
projections for the future had a low resolution and were not accurate enough to
describe climate conditions at the local level. To make projections, the proposed
research in NTT would use the new climate model combining two methods, i.e.
Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square non-Linear to assess future climate
conditions which are not linear, such as rainfalls and temperatures. The new
method would enable more accurate projections at the local level. The results of
the projections would be converted into spatial maps on a temporal scale.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

To meet the needs of the climate and other projections, the research had built
the Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square non Linear model for seasonal and
climate changes. This method was used to divide time series data into several
sub-data based on characteristic of its periodicity. This sub-data was modeled
using Least Square non Linear to find the accurate curve to figure data
spreading in periodic time. Both methods were the most accurate methods to
model climate data due to most of it being long time series and never linear. The
output of this climate projection was processed to become spatial maps, namely
season and climate with high resolutions.

Figure 3. Software of climate model using Fast Fourier Transform and Least
Square Non-Linear Methods developed by ITB (Susandi et al., 2008)

Figure 3 shows the interface of climate model developed by ITB used to build
projection of climate parameters and, if possible, used to build projection of
social parameters needed to analyze adaptive capacity in the 3 studied
subdistricts.

The modeling process was conducted through a climatology analysis as a means

to determine the characteristics of the weather and climate in a specific location.
From this characteristic, the weather in the future can be predicted. To obtain
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

the desired model and prediction, there are 4 steps that will be processed,
which are Initial Model Analysis, Periodic Anomaly Analysis Behavior, Analysis
Model Anomaly, and Build Data Contour. The four are conducted sequentially,
because the output result from one phase acts as input for the next step.

Figure 4. Work flow in climate model analysis

The first step was direct model analysis. Its target was model searching for
early stable and stationary where this model expressed a pure pattern of
weather data without trouble and noise in the data. Precipitation Data for one
location was analyzed with Least Square to produce a curve corresponding
fitting. Function that was used by the curve fitting was taken away from the
inveterate equation used in modeling. Algorithm that was used in the Least
Square method was the Levenberg-Maquardt algorithm, which is an algorithm
standard for the Least Square non-linear solution. Figure 4 shows the work flow
for this step.

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

The Second Step was a periodic characteristic analysis data of climate anomaly
and weather. Its target was to obtain repetitive time information representing
its pattern of weather anomaly. This Step was conducted under theassumption
that the pattern of weather anomaly had character that changed periodically.
Anomaly Data was the deviation of weather data to a weather model that was
considered as pure pattern for the area being evaluated. The initial weather
model intended was the early model that was produced in the initial step. The
Anomaly Data expressed noise weather data that happened under local
geographical factor consequences, or external factors like the El-Niño and La-
Niña storms, and other factors. To obtain the value of anomaly data frequency,
the method used was the discrete Fast Fourier Transform method. This Method
altered data of time domain precipitation (time series) to become frequency
data or precipitation period. The output at phase was the dominant frequency
precipitation data that identified whether a pattern of weather anomaly would
return repetitive.

The third step was analysis of anomaly model. This step targeted to refine the
model that was produced in the first step. The procedures were similar to the
first step, except if the early parameters that was used is taken away from
dominant frequencies from the second step result. With this correction, the
expected model could already reflect changes in weather patterns that were
non-stationary.

The Fourth step was mapping of precipitation distribution contour for a region
with the Universal Kriging method. The Universal Method was used because it
gave flexibility in determining function drift in form of order n polynomial. This
drift functioned to handle distribution of precipitation data that were non-
stationary.

All steps above are shown in the Figure 5 below.

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Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 5. Plan of research work flow

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

II Mean Rainfall in
Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah
Utara (TTU)

The Nusa Tenggara Timur Province, which has a tropical climate, possesses two
seasons, the dry season, and the rainy season, generally changing every six
months. Its geographical location is closer to Australia than the Asian continent,
resulting in the territory of Nusa Tenggara Timur having low rainfall. This is due
to the global circulation being very influential in this region. At the time, the
sun's position was in the Southern Hemisphere, and a cloud of water vapor had
been falling in the Western Indonesian region, so there wasn’t much water
vapor to get to the South-Eastern region of Indonesia. On the contrary, if the
position of the sun is in the Northern hemisphere, there would be no cloud of
water vapor, because the cloud would come from the air mass formed in the
mainland continent of Australia.

In the Province of East Nusa Tenggara, there are two seasons, the dry and rainy
season. During the month of December to March (a 4 month period), rainfall is
usually high, whereas in April-November rainfall is very rare. During the past 10
years, it was noted that the Lembata District had the lowest rainfall compared to
the other two study areas in East Nusa Tenggara. During the wet months, the
Lembata District had a highest rainfall of 192 mm / month. The Lembata District
had only four wet months during the year 2001-2010. While the dry season
generally occurs annually for 6 months of the year.

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 16

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

In contrast to Lembata, the TTU District is a region that has a rainfall intensity
that is quite high with the number of wet months as much as 6 months in a year.
December is the peak month of rainfall occurring in the TTU with a high
intensity of up to 400 mm / month. While August had been the peak month of
drought in the TTU region, with a rainfall intensity of only 3 mm / month. In
each month of August for the last 10 years, the TTU district had no rain at all,
leading to dryness of the soil and cracks in the land. So starting in November
onwards, the potential dangers of landslides and floods increased annually in
TTU. This is a bad risk, especially in the agricultural sector in the region.

Table 1. Mean rainfall (mm/month) during the years 2001-2010 in the three
study areas (Lembata, Sikka, and TTU) at NTT

District Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LEMBATA 178 192 167 56 8 6 3 1 0 14 86 153

SIKKA 216 245 198 108 46 14 13 9 18 52 118 237

TTU 293 375 308 177 68 40 8 3 11 64 184 400

For the Sikka District, rainfall is likely to be similar with the rainfall conditions
of Lembata. There, it is mostly dry, where no or very little rain occur during
these months. Peak occurrence of drought for the last 10 years in Sikka had
occurred in the month of August. As for the other months of drought which
generally started in the month of May to October. After that, rain would occur in
Sikka with a moderate intensity. The Sikka District is classified as mostly a dry
area, so it is very difficult to adjust to, and develop the agricultural sector.
Unless there are variations in the development of crops that are suitable to the
area of Sikka.

Figure 6 below is a graph showing the difference in intensity of the mean

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 17

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

rainfall that occurred during the last 10 years in the three areas into the study
area in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province,, namely the Lembata, Sikka, and Timor
Tengah Utara (TTU). From the third graph
graph, it showed that the three regions
generally only had 4--5
5 wet months of rain. From the intensity of rainfall that
occurred, it was seen that Lembata ha
had the least rainfall compared to other
regions. While TTU area was an area that had the highest rainfall intensity,
intensity
reaching 400 mm / month generally occur
occuring in December.

If the mean for the three districts in Nusa Tenggara Timur was calculated and
rounded up for the last 10 years, the third area would have the driest climate.
climate
Except for the Timor Tengah Utara region that has a high rainfall intensity even
in the dry season, the intensity of rain is also very low in general.

450

400

350

300

250 LEMBATA
SIKKA
200
TTU
150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-50

Figure 6. Comparison
arison of the mean rainfall d
during
uring the last 10 years for three
district areas in Nusa Tenggara Timur
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

These three areas tend to have more dry months than wet months. A record of
mean of a combined 5-6 months concluded that it did not, or had very little rain.
But at the start of the rainy season, the TTU had a very high rainfall up to 1400
mm / month in several of the months. Rainfall conditions that occurred in the
TTU was quite scarce because of the dry season, very little rain happened, but
during the rainy season, the high rate of rainfall led to potential for flooding or
mudslides in areas prone to them.

From the graph shown in Figure 6 above indicated that the third region
experienced a peak in rainfall during December. While the next two months, ie
January and February, rainfall still occurred, but the intensity of rain was not as
high as it was in December. Therefore, the need to watch out for rain that
occurred in December, especially in the Timor Tengah Utara District, had a
higher fluctuation than the two other districts.

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

III Spatial Maps of

Mean Rainfall in
Nusa Tenggara
Timur Province

In this section the condition of rainfall seen visually by using a spatial map of the
mean rainfall during the last 10 years (2001 to 2010) in the territory of East
Nusa Tenggara will be discussed upon. The Spatial map was constructed using
kriging interpolation method with the input rainfall from 20 stations distributed
in the three study areas (Sikka, Lembata, and TTU), with specifications as much
as 5 station observations of rainfall in the region Lembata, 8 station
observations of rainfall in the region Sikka, and 9 rainfall observation stations in
the Timor Tengah Utara District.

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 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 7. Mean ra
rainfall in Januari for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

In January, mean rainfall was highest in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province in the
Southeast,
outheast, especially in Timor Tengah Utara.. While the region is part of
Lembata, rainfall
fall during this month had a lower intensity than most other
regions in East Nusa Tenggara. Figure 7 above shows the distribution of the
mean rainfall in January in the past 10 years in the territory of Eas
East Nusa
Tenggara. It can be seen
een that the Southeastern part of Nusa Tenggara Timur had
a high rainfall intensity, which reached 450 mm / month.

Figure 8 below shows the intensity of rainfall on mean in February during 2001
to 2010 in the territory of East Nusa Tenggara. On this period,, NTT-East
NTT section
retained the intensity of rainfall that was higher than most other regions. In
TTU’s own territory, the intensity of rainfall reache
reached 800 mm / month. In the
same month, the rainfall
fall in Lembata had a fairly low intensity, reaching only 200
mm / month.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 8. Mean rai

rainfall in Februari for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Condition of the mean rainfall in March in West Timor is shown in Figure 9

below, where the TTU is a region with the highest rainfall intensity, which
reached 700 mm / month. Sikka District also had a rate of rainfall
fall that had a
high enough intensity to reach 400 mm / month. While the Lembata District
rate of rainfall had a low intensity, only reach
reaching 150 mm / month.

In March, mean rainfall in the Lembata District reached 167 mm / month. With a
rainfall intensity of this magnitude, then this m
month
onth is the month for
theLembata District to be at their most wet. However, if all the water is used for
agriculture, there would still not be enough water to plant the crops, especially
rice. But there are some other plants that could still survive in deep water that
can be pursued with rainfall intensity of this magnitude.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 9. Mean rainfall in March for NTT Province during 2001-2010

2001

Figure 10 below shows the distribution of the mean rainfall in April during the
years 2001 through 2010. In this month, Lembata District had an intensity of 56
mm rainfall / month. The intensity of this magnitude is low, which means the
month of April is part of dry season in the Lembata District. In Sikka District, the
intensity of rainfall reache
reached 108 mm / month, including the dry mont
months. While
in the TTU District,, rainfall conditions are still quite large to be used for plant
utilization.
Of the three areas, the rainfall rate for this month is low, especially in the north
of Nusa Tenggara Timur Province. Rainfall in southeastern NTT was still quite
large because of the influence of global circulation long ago,, where a cloud of
water vapored from the ocean and drove the islands that is now Indonesia
south, and created islands that now form the islands of Java, Bali, Lombok, and
southeast part of Nusa Tenggara Timur.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 10. Mean rainfall in April for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Distribution of rainfall in the month of May in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province is

shown in Figure 11 below. It is seen in the figure that the rainfall in NTT had
ha
begun to decline, especially in the northern region. Lembata District remained
an area of NTT, which had
ha the lowest rainfall. In this month, the Lembata
District reached 8 mm of rainfall / month. This marked that
at the area had very
little, or no rain at all during the period
period.. Drought occurred in this mon
month in
nearly all of Lembata District.

Next to Sikka and TTU, rain conditions were also quite low, reaching only 46 to
68 mm / month. If the mean was calculated, daily rainfall would only reach 2
mm / day. That translated to almost no rain on this month in both Sikka and
TTU. By looking at the condition of this month compared with the previous
month, then it was concluded that this month was considered part of the dry
season in all regions of East Nusa Tenggara, including Lembata, Sikka, and
Timor Tengah Utara.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 11. Mean rainfall in May for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Figure 12 below shows the distributi

distribution of rainfall in the Nusa Tenggara Timur
Province in June during 2001 through 2010. It can be seen that the whole
territory of NTT was dry, and had almost no rain. The TTU District usually had a
high rate of rain,, except for this month. The rain that occurred was only 40 mm
/ month. If the mean was calculated daily, then this month would only reach 1
mm / day. Therefore, the intensity value of this magnitude concluded that it
barely rained in TTU.

Distribution of rainfall in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province in July is shown in

Figure 8. In that month, the entire NTT Province did not rain. Therefore, July is
deemed as part of the dry season, which included the peak month of August.
During the past 10 years, drought in West Timor had always occured every July
and August. Therefore, a strategy needs to be implemented in anticipation in the
prior months to cope with the drought problems. All in all, drought generally
occured in July, August and September, as shown in Figure 13, 14,, and 15.
1
Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 12. Mean rainfall in June for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Figure 13. Mean rainfall in July for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 14. Mean rrainfall in August for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Figure 15. Mean rainfall in September ffor NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Figure 16 shows the distribution of the mean rainfall in West Timor in October
during the years 2001 to 2010. The rainy season starts again this month,
beginning with the rain that occured in Timor Tengah Utara (TTU). In this
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

month, TTU experienced rain with a rainfall intensity of 64 mm / month.

Despite this month still being part of the dry season, just a few moments pior to
the upcoming rainy season.

Figure 16. Mean ra

rainfall in October for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

The rainy season that had a high enough intensity actually started in November,
as shown in Figure 17
7. In this month, the TTU area had started to rain with the
intensity of rainfall mean reaching 184 mm / month. Lembata District had also
begun to rain but with a low rate of rainfall intensity. The intensity of rainfall in
the region of Lembata only reached 86 mm / month. This condition is shown in
Figure 17 below. For the Sikka District,, the intensity of rainfall reached
reache 118 mm
/ month. With this intensity, it was possible for farmers to begin planting.
plant
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 17. Mean rai

rainfall in November for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001

Likewise, the condition of rainfall in December, led to NTT and TTU

experiencing the rainy season with high intensity of rain.. This December,
including the peak wet season
season, the intensity of rainfall reached 400 mm /
month. The recorded
ecorded rainfall from the observation data, informed that in TTU,
the intensity of rainfall amounted to 1000 mm / month. Therefore, the period of
December needs
ds to be monitored, as,
as, from time to time meteorological disasters
such as floods and landslides might occur with high intensity

For the Lembata and Sikka District,, the intensity of rainfall in December was
also quite high. The intensity of rainfall in the Lembata region reached
reache 153 mm
/ month, whereas in the Sikka District it reached 237 mm / month.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 18. Mean rainfall in December for NTT Province during 2001-2010
2001
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

IV Climate Change
Modeling Procedure to
Build Projection of
Climate in Lembata,
Sikka, and Timor
Tengah Utara (TTU)

The modeling process is conducted with climatology analysis as a means to

determine the characteristics of weather and climate in a specific location. From
this characteristic then the weather in the future can be predicted. To obtain the
desired model and prediction, there are 4 steps that will be processed, the Initial
Model Analysis, Periodic Anomaly Analysis Behavior, Analysis Model Anomaly,
and Build Data Contour. The four are conducted sequentially because output
results from one phase acts as input for the next step.

Figure 19. Work flow in model analysis, the process is conducted in a repetitive
manner until an acceptable error is found, and the value of early parameter

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 31

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

estimation can be taken away from the dominant frequency that is produced by
the second step output.

The first step is direct model analysis. Its target is model searching early stable
and stationary where this model expresses a pure pattern of weather data
without trouble and noise at data. Precipitation Data for one location is analyzed
with Least Square to produce curve corresponding fitting. Function that’s used
by the curve fitting is taken away from inveterate equation used in modeling.
Algorithm used in the Least Square method is the algorithm Levenberg-
Maquardt, which is an algorithm standard for the Least Square non-linear
solution. Figure 19 shows the work flow for this step.

Get data from

Database for
(x,y) location

Initial Model Analysis

Anomaly Model Periodic Behavior
Initial Curve Fitting Analysis Reduction Analysis
Frequency
Analysis Observation Data
Analysis with FFT
by Initial Model

Takes
Prediction Data Loess Smoothing
Dominant
Data
Frequency

Get any
location data Curve Fitting
Analysis

Save Predicted
Data
Predicted Data
Correction

Build Contour with

Kriging Methode

Figure 20. Plan of research work flow

Second step is periodic characteristic analysis data of climate anomaly and

weather. Its target is to get repetitive time information its pattern of weather
anomaly. This Step is conducted under the assumption that the pattern of

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 32

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

weather anomaly have a periodic character. Anomaly Data is a deviation of

weather data to a weather model that’s considered as pure pattern for the area
being evaluated. Initial weather model that’s intended is an early model that
was produced in the first step. Anomaly Data expresses noise weather data that
happened under local geographical factor consequences, or external factors like
the El-Niño, and La-Niña storms, and others. To obtain values of anomaly data
frequency, the method that’s used is discrete Fast Fourier Transform. This
Method alters data of time domain precipitation (time series) to become
frequency data or precipitation period. The output at this phase is the dominant
frequency precipitation data that identifies when a pattern of weather anomaly
will occur again.

Third step is the analysis of anomaly model. This targets to refine the model
that was produced in the first step. The procedures are similar to the first step
unless early parameters that were used are taken away from dominant
frequencies from the second step result. By this correction, the expected model
can already reflect changes of weather patterns that are non-stationary.

Fourth step is mapping of precipitation distribution contour for a region with

the Universal Kriging method. The Universal Method is used because it gives
flexibility in determining the function drift that forms theorder and polynomial.
The function of this drift is for handling distribution of precipitation data that
are non-stationary.

All steps above are shown in the Figure 20 above.

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 33

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

V Mean Temperature
in Lembata, Sikka,
and Timor Tengah
Utara (TTU)

Temperature in the Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) Province is generally high in

almost all locations. Included among them are the three study areas in NTT,
namely Lembata, Sikka, and Timor Tengah Utara. Based on data obtained from
observation stations, there are differences in temperature in the spatial scale of
three districts in NTT. The figure below shows the temperature difference of 3
regions are shown in graphic form, representing the mean calculation of
monthly temperature in the past 10 years, ie from 2001 until 2010.

27.4
27.2
27.0
26.8
26.6 Sikka
26.4 TTU
26.2 Lembata
26.0
25.8
25.6
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 21. Mean temperatures in the three study areas in NTT during the years
2001-2010

Based on temperature data shown in Figure 21 above, the three areas in NTT
experienced high temperature fluctuations in the time range of 2005 to 2007.
Fluctuations that occured were a decrease in temperature that was quite
significant and is equal to 0.8 °C in 2005 to the year 2006. Furthermore, an
increase in temperature from 2006 to 2007 amounted to 0.6 °C.

The graph in the Figure above can also be seen in the numbers shown on the
table below. It’s evident that the overall temperature of the TTU District was
lower than the two other districts. For 10 years, the mean temperature in TTU
was 26.5 °C. There was an occurrence of relatively high temperature in this
region, in 2001 and 2010 where the monthly mean temperature reached 26.6
°C.

Table 2. Data on mean monthly temperature in 3 districts of East Nusa Tenggara

Station Lon Lat 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lembata 123.4 -8.4 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3

Sikka 122.4 -8.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3

TTU 124.5 -9.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.6 25.8 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.6

Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) is an area that had the lowest temperature
compared to two other areas in the province. But this region had a higher
rainfall compared to the second region. This was probably caused by the global
circulation that brought more moisture to the TTU area than other areas.

Mean temperature that was highest in the region of TTU occurred in 2001 and
2010 with the temperature reaching 26.6oC. While the mean temperature was

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 35

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

highest in the region of Lembata back in 2001. The temperature value for the
year reached 27.5oC. Temperature value was 2.5oC higher than the normal air
circulating in other parts of Indonesia. This condition resulted in extreme
weather conditions in West Timor, where the rainfall was rare, but during the
rainy season, water from the rainfall runoff led to possibility of landslides and
floods.

VI Spatial Maps of
Mean Temperature
in Nusa Tenggara
Timur Region

Here is shown the condition of the mean annual temperature ranging from 2001
to 2010. In spatial scale, the mean annual temperature in the region of NTT tend
to be higher than in the northern regions. This is probably caused by the
northern region being close to the equator, so it’s exposed to more solar
radiation than the southern region and eastern NTT. To the north, especially the
Bara Sea region, the highest temperature occured in December, January, and
February.

PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH ON CLIMATE VULNERABILITY 36

 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 22. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2001

The Figure 22 above shows the spatial map of the mean annual temperature in
2001 in West Timor. It can be seen that in 2001, the highest mean temperatures
occured in the northern part of NTT.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 23. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2002

200

In West Timor in the south, the mean temperature of 26.5°C

C occurred. The NTT
study area to the south of this region is TTU. The TTU District includes areas
with a temperature value that is not too high when compared with the northern
part of West Timor, but has a higher rainfall than other areas of NTT.

Comparison of the mean annual temperature between Sikka and Lembata

District is not as drastic in margin as the comparison between Sikka and TTU.
Mean temperatures in the region tend to be higher than Sikka Lembata District
with a temperature difference of up to 0.6 oC.
 Book 1: Climate Change Impact in Sikka, Lembata, and Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) 2012

Figure 24. Mean Temperature in NTT Province during 2003

200

The Figure 24 above shows the mean temperature in 2003 at NTT with the
temperature difference still being significant as is the case in previous years.

In West Timor in the south, mean temperatures have gone up to 26.3oC. NTT
study area to the south of this region is TTU. The TTU District includes areas
with a temperature value that is not too high when compared with the northern
part of West Timor, but h
has a higher rainfall than other areas of NTT.
NTT
 Book 1: Climate Change

Figure 25. Mean Temperature in

The Figure 25 above shows the condition of the

starting in 2004. In
Province tends to be higher
caused by the northern region
solar radiation than the southern region and
especially the Bara Sea region, the highest temperature
December, January, and February this year.

In West Timor in the south,

area to the south of this region is TTU.
temperature value that is not too high when compared with the northern part of
West Timor, but has a higher rainfall than other