Revealing the hidden climate and health impacts of the global
eCommerce-driven parcel delivery industry through 2030
A joint investigation by Clean Mobility Collective and [Link] Research Group
May 2023
Credits
Primary authors:
Devyani Singh
Greg Higgs
Victoria Leistman
Researchers:
Devyani Singh
Greg Higgs
Contributors:
Phoebe Lam
Aslihan Tumer
Gary Cook
Siddharth Sreenivas
Hugo Mann
Jens Müller
The data in this report has been prepared using best practices and due diligence using
information available at date of publication. All information is subject to change. All data is
obtained from public sources including but not limited to company websites, annual reports
and sustainability reports, as well as academic literature and third-party research institute
reports, or from emissions factors or conversion formulas derived from said data. If you
represent a company that appears in this report or associated documents that you believe
is misrepresented, supplemental information can be sent to SRG@[Link]
About Clean Mobility Collective
Clean Mobility Collective (CMC) is an international network committed to limiting our
impact on climate change by pushing for the decarbonisation of the transportation sector.
This includes transition to, and adoption of, 100% zero emission deliveries in major cities
and among global fleet operators by 2030, and through local government actions to
address air pollution.
About [Link] Research Group
Stand Research Group obtains crucial information to help build campaigns on critical
issues. SRG specializes in chain of custody research, identifying and tracking raw materials
as they move through complex supply chains. SRG traces environmental destruction and
human rights violations to help hold corporate actors accountable and, ultimately, change
corporate practices.
Key Findings
E-commerce and the associated emissions from last mile delivery will continue growing
exponentially. This study predicts that global annual parcel volume could increase from
over 315 billion parcels in 2022 to up to 800 billion parcels a year in 2030.1
Approximately one billion trees would need to be planted and allowed to grow for 10 years
to sequester the emissions of a single year of current last mile parcel deliveries.
Without any changes in fleet makeup, global e-commerce deliveries will emit up to 160
megatons of CO2/year by 2030, which is equivalent to yearly CO2 emissions of up to 44
coal plants.
Last mile delivery also emits other pollutants including nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate
matter (PM), and carbon monoxide (CO). Globally, in 2022, these emissions likely
contributed to approximately 12,000 incidents of exacerbated asthma and over 20,000
incidents of respiratory symptoms. These health impacts are not shared equally, with
many communities of color and lower income communities at greater risk due to
increased exposure to transportation pollution.
Cumulatively from 2023 to 2030, without any substantial change in EV adoption, the total
of all of the world’s delivery companies’ last mile emissions could contribute up to 168,000
cumulative cases of asthma exacerbation up to 285,000 cumulative cases of respiratory
symptoms, and up to 9,500 premature deaths globally.
Based on data found in Amazon’s 2021 Sustainability Report combined with parcel
delivery estimates, less than 7% of all deliveries in Europe and less than 1% of deliveries in
the US were made using EVs and other mobility modes. Furthermore, all of Amazon’s
existing zero-emission vehicle pledges are not even enough to account for their projected
increase in annual deliveries by 2030.
Compared to its peers (UPS, FedEx, DHL, and Geopost2), Amazon reports the least amount
of information on its last mile deliveries. We were unable to find reliable information
disclosed by the company about the total number of packages it delivers, its overall fleet
size, or the current makeup of its fleet, all of which are critical in assessing progress
towards zero emission deliveries.
1
See Methodology annex for details behind this calculation
2
Formerly DPD
Background
Global e-commerce is expected to reach US $6.3 trillion in 2023, and continue growing to over
US 8.1 trillion in 2026.3 Millions of purchases mean millions of parcels. And that means
millions of deliveries – millions of vehicles clogging up streets, our lungs and the environment.
The damage these fossil fuel-powered fleets are doing to our health and climate is only just
beginning to be understood.
The current sustainability commitments of five of the largest delivery companies - Amazon
Logistics, DHL eCommerce Solutions, UPS, FedEx, Geopost - are insufficient to reach zero
emission deliveries quickly. By comparison, the company Flipkart and its delivery company
eKart has committed to a 100% zero emission fleet target by 2030 as part of EV100 - an
initiative that works with companies to transition their vehicles4 – but they need to still map
out and implement this commitment.
Commitments with 2040 and 2050 timelines are too late to avoid health and climate impacts.
"Net-zero emissions" targets allow companies to offset emissions; however this cannot
replace needed emissions reductions and fossil fuel phase-outs. A "zero emissions" target is
the most ambitious, meaning companies must eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions.5
We have built upon our July 2022 report, “Revealing the Secret Emissions of E-Commerce”
with further projections about the negative consequences we can expect by 2030 if Amazon
and other companies don’t make commitments to be making 100% zero emission deliveries
by 2030.
Projected Growth
As discussed in “Revealing the Secret Emissions of E-Commerce,” parcel deliveries rose
considerably throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, and this growth has resulted in more
vehicles, increased local pollution, and, as calculated in detail in this current report, more
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study predicts that global annual parcel volume could
increase from over 315 billion parcels in 2022 to up to 800 billion parcels a year in 2030.6
India is one of the world’s fastest growing e-commerce markets, growing at a rate 2.2-5.5x
faster than the global average.7 Using this growth rate, we estimate the 2022 total of over 4
3
[Link]/advisor/business/ecommerce-statistics/
4
SOMO, “Parcel delivery on a warming planet”, 2021.
5
SOMO, “Parcel delivery on a warming planet”, 2021.
6
See Methodology annex for details behind this calculation
7
RedSeer, RedSeer shadowfax Logistics iIndex 2020 (30-35% CAGR by volume in India) compared to
Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index (5.5-11.5% CAGR by volume globally).
billion parcels delivered nationally to increase to about 40 billion parcels a year (range 33-46
billion) by 2030. Of this, three major delivery companies in India (Flipkart/eKart, Amazon
logistics and DHL eCommerce Solutions) could contribute over 50% of the total, equalling
17-24 billion parcels per year by 2030.
Assuming Europe grows at the same global rate, five major delivery companies (Amazon
Logistics, FedEx, UPS, DHL eCommerce Solutions, and Geopost) could deliver around 9-15
billion parcels per year by 2030, a considerable increase from 2022 levels of 6.5 billion parcels.
Assuming that the US market also grows at around the same global rate over the next few
years, four major delivery companies (Amazon Logistics, FedEx, UPS, and DHL eCommerce
Solutions) could deliver around 24-40 billion parcels annually by 2030, a considerable increase
from 15.8 billion parcels in 2022..
2030 Impacts for Climate & Health
Climate
Transport is already the world’s largest source of new greenhouse gas emissions that drive
climate change, which threatens clean air progress and amplifies a wide range of health risks and
disparities8.” As the e-commerce sector grows, there is a huge opportunity for companies to
mitigate anticipated impacts before 2030.
We estimate that the world’s delivery companies shipped over 315 billion packages in 2022. The
greenhouse gas emissions of the last mile delivery portion of these parcels is equivalent to the
annual CO2 emissions (over 65 mill. tonnes) of over 17 coal fired power plants in the US.9
To put it in further perspective, over 1 billion trees would need to be planted and allowed to grow
for 10 years to sequester the emissions of a single year of last mile parcel deliveries based on our
2022 estimates.
Alternatively, over 77 million acres of US forests per year would be required to sequester the
GHGs emitted from the single year of last mile deliveries - this is equal to forest land required
bigger than the whole state of Arizona.10 That translates to around 11% of carbon sequestered in
8
Ritchie, H. & Roser, M. (n.d.). Our world in data, “Emissions per sector”. [Link]
org/emissions-by-sector
9
As per EPA an average US plant emits ~3.7 million tonnes of CO2 per year
[Link]
es#coalplant
10
EPA estimates that 0.84 metric ton CO2/acre/year is sequestered annually by one acre of average
U.S. forest; Arizona = ~73 million acres
2020 by European forests.11
Global e-commerce deliveries could reach up to 800 billion packages a year by 2030. In a
business-as-usual scenario, this is equivalent to yearly CO2 emissions (100-160 mill. tonnes) of up
to 44 average US coal plants. Over the next eight years from 2023-2030, without any changes in
fleet makeup, the total of all delivery companies’ last mile deliveries could cumulatively emit nearly
a billion metric tons of CO2.12
Comparison of parcels delivered globally and equivalent CO2 emissions in 2022
and 2030
Health
According to the American Lung Association May 2023 report Delivering Clean Air, “The burdens
of unhealthy air include increased asthma attacks, heart attacks and strokes, lung cancer and
premature death. These poor health outcomes are not shared equally, with many communities of
color, class and lower income communities at greater risk due to increased exposure to
11
Based on estimates from a Scientific study on European forests: European forests sequestered 155
million tonnes of carbon; 1g C = 3.67g CO2; equals 569 million tonnes CO2 in 2020; 65 million
tonnes emitted in 2022 = 11% of forest CO2 sequestration in 2020.
12
We estimate 660 to 920 million tonnes of CO2 from 2023 to 2030
transportation pollution.”13
Delivery and parcel vans produce harmful pollutants that add to regional air pollution burdens that
can affect community health. These vehicles also exacerbate local impacts by creating health
damaging diesel particle pollution that can be extremely concentrated in communities nearest
warehouses and truck routes.14
In addition to CO2, last mile deliveries also emit pollutants including nitrogen oxides (NOx),
particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO). Globally, in 2022, these emissions likely
contributed to approximately 12,000 incidents of exacerbated asthma and over 20,000 incidents
of respiratory symptoms.
According to the World Health Organization, exposure to pollutants like nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO) is associated with asthma, cardiovascular
disease, respiratory conditions, difficulties breathing, exhaustion, dizziness, flu-like symptoms, and
additional health impacts.15
The impacts of diesel particulate matter on the body cannot be underestimated. Communities
already experiencing poor air quality are most at risk - and oftentimes workers are some of the
ones most impacted. Diesel particulate matter causes significant respiratory impacts when it
enters human airways and embeds in the lungs. Damage to the heart and other organs can occur
If those particles make their way into the bloodstream.16
Cumulatively over the next eight years from 2023-2030, without any changes in fleet makeup, the
total of all delivery companies’ last mile emissions could contribute up to 168,000 cases of
asthma exacerbation; up to 285,000 cases of respiratory symptoms; and up to 9,500 premature
deaths.
13
[Link]
[Link]
14
[Link]
15
WHO,
[Link]/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/air-quality-and-health/health-impacts
/types-of-pollutants
16
[Link]
Cumulative cases of exacerbated asthma from 2022 to 2030
Amazon Logistics17, along with five other major delivery companies (DHL eCommerce
Solutions18, UPS, FedEx, Geopost19, and Flipkart/eKart20) currently deliver a combined total of
over 25 billion parcels per year. We estimate this to grow to up to 64 billion parcels annually by
2030. Cumulatively from 2023-2030, without any changes in fleet makeup, the combined
emissions from these six companies alone could account for up to 13,500 cases of exacerbated
asthma; and up to 23,000 cases of respiratory symptoms.
In India, Flipkart/eKart, DHL (via its related company Blue Dart21) and Amazon Logistics currently
deliver over 2 billion parcels per year combined, which could grow to 17-25 billion parcels by 2030.
Cumulatively, from 2023-2030, without any changes in fleet makeup, last mile deliveries of these
three companies in India could account for an additional 17 million metric tons of CO2.
In Europe, the last mile deliveries of five major companies (Amazon Logistics, FedEx, UPS, DHL
eCommerce, and Geopost), without any changes in fleet makeup, cumulatively from 2023-2030
could emit an additional 18 million metric tons of CO2, and their other emissions of NOx, PM and
CO could contribute to up to 3,400 cases of exacerbated asthma and up to 5,800 cases of
respiratory symptoms.
17
The in-house courier division of [Link]
18
The express courier division of DHL, excluding the domestic postal deliveries within Germany
19
Formerly DPD
20
eKart is the in-house courier division of India-based Flipkart
21
Deutsche Post AG, the parent company to Deutsche Post DHL Group (DHL), owns 75% of Blue Dart
Express Limited.
What is Amazon hiding?
Amazon does not disclose any information about its overall fleet size. It is impossible to
measure the impact of Amazon’s current plan to acquire 100,000 electric Rivian vans, for
example, without being able to contextualize that in how many vehicles, and what kind of vehicles,
Amazon has on the road overall.
Moreover, using reported deliveries from Amazon’s 2021 Sustainability Report, we estimate that
deliveries using ZEV and micro-mobility technologies made up only 6.8% of all its deliveries in
Europe, and in the US this was less than 1%. Together all deliveries globally using ZEV and
micro-mobility made up just under 2% in 2021.
Amazon pledges to reach net zero carbon emission by 2040 as part of its “Climate Pledge by
2040” initiative. It also states that by 2030 they will have 100,000 Rivian electric vans, 1,800 from
Mercedes-Benz in Europe, and 10,000 EV’s in India on the road by 2030.22 However, using their
existing public EV pledges23 (some of which have been pushed back to 203024) it only adds up to
about half of their current delivery volume.
Amazon fails to take into account that the e-commerce market is growing. Using best available
data, their current EV commitments appear to be enough to account for only 20-30% of their
projected parcel deliveries in 2030. In fact, these announced electric delivery vehicles don’t even
appear to be enough to handle the minimum projected increase in Amazon’s annual deliveries
from 2021 to 2030. This also begs another question: if Amazon is serious about its promises,
then why all this secrecy about its last mile delivery fleet and associated emissions?
In particular, the subcontractor and gig work landscape across e-commerce is vast and extremely
opaque. In “Revealing the Secret Emissions of E-Commerce,” we found that Amazon uses at least
2,000 companies of a few hundred drivers who are independent contractors, and Amazon leases
delivery vans to these contractors. There is still no reliable information to date about Amazon’s
overall fleet makeup from their own vehicles, and similarly nothing to be found about the vehicles
being used by the sub-contracted drivers.
Sub-contracted and gig workers often have limited social protections and pay bare minimum
wages. A 2021 report for the US Guardian reported that Amazon drivers across the country were
22
The Amazon sustainability page states its current commitment to purchase 100,000 Rivian electric
vans by 2030 plus 1,800 from Mercedes-Benz in Europe and 10,000 EVs in India. The Climate
Pledge by 2040 further states net zero carbon emissions by 2040.
23
100,000 electric vans from Rivian plus 1,800 from Mercedes-Benz in Europe and 10,000 EVs in India.
Source: Amazon 2021 Sustainability Report.
24
The Verge, November 7, 2022. “Amazon says it has ‘over a thousand’ Rivian electric vans making
deliveries in the US”.
[Link]/2022/11/7/23443995/amazon-rivian-electric-delivery-van-fleet-ev
forced to work 14-hour days and urinate in bottles in their vehicles in order to keep up with
delivery rates.
Previously, Amazon's Shipment Zero goal committed the company to a near term target of having
50% of its shipments to be "net zero" by 2030, a goal it has recently eliminated, leaving only the
company wide goal of "net zero" by 2040 remaining.25 Given the projected climate and health
impacts by 2030, this is far too late to mitigate anticipated emissions and the consequences.
[Link] made $514 billion U.S. dollars in 2022 – still seeing record profits since the start of
the COVID-19 pandemic. Each year, Amazon’s Prime Day sales increase, reaching US$12 billion in
sales in 202226. Amazon also saw record-breaking sales for Black Friday and Cyber Monday
weekend in 2022, with Amazon announcing that it’d had the “biggest holiday shopping weekend
ever.”27 The convenience of online shopping continues to benefit the company’s revenue but
comes at the price of climate, health and worker impacts. Amazon can afford to protect our
climate, and the quality of life for communities and workers experiencing the negative health
effects of truck pollution.28
Conclusion and Recommendations
Unabated growth of last-mile delivery will have significant climate and health impacts if not
addressed at scale by 2030. We urgently need companies and governments to adopt sustainable
solutions like fleet electrification, e-cargo bikes and other micro mobility strategies.
Major e-commerce companies like Amazon - should be at the forefront of adopting solutions to
drastically reduce emissions. None of the companies researched, neither the big global delivery
companies nor the sub-contractor logistics and delivery companies, disclose any data specifically
about their last-mile emissions.29 Amazon in particular releases no information about the
makeup of their delivery vehicles and shrouds the pollution and climate impact of their parcel
delivery operations from the public and consumers.
Greater transparency is required for companies' actions to be evaluated against the scale of the
problem. Reporting should include Scope 1 and Scope 3 emissions and adequate time bound
transition plans should be produced and announced for addressing them.
25
[Link]
26
[Link]
ime%20Day%20sales%20have,came%20from%20the%20United%20States.
27
[Link]
liday-Shopping-Weekend-Ever/?feedref=JjAwJuNHiystnCoBq_hl-fLcmYSZsqlD_XPbplM8Ta6D8R-Q
U5o2AvY8bhI9uvWSD8DYIYv4TIC1g1u0AKcacnnViVjtb72bOP4-4nHK5iej_DoWrIhfD31cAxcB60aE
28
[Link]
29
SOMO, “Parcel delivery on a warming planet”, 2021.
The vast presence of sub-contractors, both companies and gig workers, permits the bigger
e-commerce companies to avoid audits and other oversight that would generate insight on their
business practices. The lack of data, especially given the dependence and scale of subcontracting
in the last-mile delivery ecosystem, is concerning because it makes it very difficult to hold
companies accountable regarding CO2 and criteria pollutant emissions, labor rights, and social
protections.
Recommendations
1. Companies should publicly make commitments for 100% zero emissions last-mile
deliveries by 2030, and to develop 2025-2030 implementation plans that include:
● Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles and transition to 100% zero emissions last-mile
deliveries, including deliveries made by contractors and subcontractors.
● Publicly shared information on their emissions and fleet sizes, including detailed
reporting on the emissions and vehicles of contractors and subcontractors, and
progress on zero emission delivery on a country/regional basis.
● Ensuring the cost of transitioning from fossil fuel vehicles to electric vehicles,
cargo bikes, and other zero emissions options is not passed on to contractors and
subcontractors.
● An increase in cargo bike deliveries, neighborhood delivery hubs, and other zero
emissions options.
● Working with original equipment manufacturers and governments to track and
source mined materials that have the least amount of environmental and health
impacts for electric vehicle fleets.
● Prioritizing communities experiencing the highest levels of pollution and poor air
quality first for the transition to electric vehicles and other zero emissions options.
2. To emphasize, subcontractors including gig workers must be supported. Companies must
take responsibility for subcontractor zero emission transition and improved working
conditions ( living wages, hours, safety, benefits etc.). Companies must regularly report on
use of subcontractors and make this information publicly available.
3. Governments and companies must work collaboratively to ensure electric vehicle and
non-motorised transport (NMT) measures in the last-mile delivery sector via company
commitments and policy or regulatory requirements, and that best practices are shared.
Annex and Methodology
[link to appendix]
