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Probability

This document discusses probability concepts related to poker hands, random selection of people, Bernoulli trials, and Bayes' theorem. It includes questions about the probability of certain cards appearing in poker hands, the minimum number of people needed to be selected randomly to exceed a probability threshold, probabilities related to Bernoulli trials, and calculating conditional probabilities using Bayes' theorem given prior probabilities and accuracy of tests.

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107 views1 page

Probability

This document discusses probability concepts related to poker hands, random selection of people, Bernoulli trials, and Bayes' theorem. It includes questions about the probability of certain cards appearing in poker hands, the minimum number of people needed to be selected randomly to exceed a probability threshold, probabilities related to Bernoulli trials, and calculating conditional probabilities using Bayes' theorem given prior probabilities and accuracy of tests.

Uploaded by

SSJ7
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Finite Probability

1. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains the ace of hearts?
2. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand does not contain the queen of hearts?
3. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains the two of diamonds and the three of spades?
4. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains the two of diamonds, the three of spades, the six of
hearts, the ten of clubs, and the king of hearts?
5. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains exactly one ace?
6. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains at least one ace?
7. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains cards of five different kinds?
8. What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains a flush, that is, five cards of the same suit?

Probability Theory

1. What is the probability of these events when we randomly select a permutation of {1, 2, 3, 4}?
a) 1 precedes 4.
b) 4 precedes 1.
c) 4 precedes 1 and 4 precedes 2.
d) 4 precedes 1, 4 precedes 2, and 4 precedes 3.
e) 4 precedes 3 and 2 precedes 1.

2. Find the smallest number of people you need to choose at random so that the probability that at least one of them has a
birthday today exceeds 1/2.

3. Find the smallest number of people you need to choose at random so that the probability that at least two of them were
both born on April 1 exceeds 1/2.

4. Find each of the following probabilities when n independent Bernoulli trials are carried out with probability of
success p.
a) the probability of no failures
b) the probability of at least one failure
c) the probability of at most one failure
d) the probability of at least two failures

Bayes’ Theorem

1. Suppose that one person in 10,000 people has a rare genetic disease. There is an excellent test for the disease; 99.9% of
people with the disease test positive and only 0.02% who do not have the disease test positive.

a) What is the probability that someone who tests positive has the genetic disease?
b) What is the probability that someone who tests negative does not have the disease?

2. Suppose that 8% of the patients tested in a clinic are infected with Polio. Furthermore, suppose that when a blood test
for Polio is given, 98% of the patients infected with Polio test positive and that 3% of the patients not infected with Polio
test positive. What is the probability that:

a) a patient testing positive for Polio with this test is infected with it?
b) a patient testing positive for Polio with this test is not infected with it?
c) a patient testing negative for Polio with this test is infected with it?
d) a patient testing negative for Polio with this test is not infected with it?

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