` `

UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

TAXILA
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

SMOG HAZARD ANALYSIS MANAGEMENT IN LAHORE

REPORT

SUBMITTED BY:

MUNEEB HASSAN
ROLL NO :
( 21-CE-79)
SECTION: C
SEMESTER: 3RD
DEPARTMENT: CIVIL
SUBMITTED TO:

PROFESSOR DR. FIAZ TAHIR

1
 PROBLEM BASED LEARNING

Select a Title:

SMOG Hazard analysis and Management in LAHORE.

Guidelines:
Select a region and a hazard
Follow hazard analysis process flow chart
Collect data and information from sources like, journals, books, media, public
Take help from FEMA, NDMA, PDMA websites, visit their office and library
Use modern tools and software to generate your own maps and analysis
Present a comprehensive report.
Prepare an interesting Presentation.
Use your own tables and figures. But if you are using other’s work in your report than
refer it properly.

HDM REPORT EVALUATION GRADING OF REPORT

AND PERFORMANCE
REPORT Title: (Hazard analysis and Management in (Town/city/district/country)

HDM Report
Presentation
Sr. 10% Total
Student Name Registration Number 5%
No. (Marks (15)
(Marks 20)*0.25
100)X0.1

RUBRICS FOR FINAL REPORT ON HDM

Name of student: MUNEEB HASSAN Registration Numbers: 21-CE-79

Sr. Level 1 Level Level Level Marks

No. (25%) 2 3 4 Obtaine
Category Marks
(50% (75% (100% d
) ) )
HDM FINAL REPORT
The
The
The introduction
introduction
introduction contains some
The work contains
contains little relevant
appears relevant
relevant information
(a) Content 15 sloppy and information
information about the
unorganized about the
about the task and need
task and well
task some
organized
improvement
3.75 7.5 11.25 15
Literature Literature
Literature Literature
includes less includes more
includes 20‐ includes 51‐
than 20% than 70%
Literature 49% papers 69% papers
(b) 30 papers from papers from
Survey from last 5 from last 5
last 5 years last 5
years years
years
7.5 15 22.5 30
Is messy or
poorly Looks really‐
Is acceptably
designed. good in
attractive Looks good in
Problem Seems sustainabl
(c) 15 though it may design and
Specification time was not e
be a bit objectives.
taken to developm
messy.
complete it. ent
 3.75 7.5 11.25 15
Informatio Information is
n is gathered Informatio Informatio gathered from
from n is gathered n is gathered multiple
nonelectronic from limited from multiple electronic or
Information or electronic or electronic or electronic
(d) 10
Gathering electronic nonelectronic electronic source and
source source source cited properly
only
2.5 5.0 7.5 10
Sr. Level Lev Lev Level Marks
No Mark 1 el 2 el 3 4 Obtaine
Category
. s (25% (50 (75 (100 d
) %) %) %)
HDM FINA
L
REPORT
Methodology Methodology Methodology
Methodolo is marginally is reasonably is practical
gy not practical and practical and and highly
Methodolog suitable relevant to relevant to relevant to
(e) 10
y at all the project the project the project
objectives objectives objectives
2.5 5.0 7.5 10
Good and
reasonable
Detail research
A vague Some detail research gap
gap is reached
research research is
Conclusion from the
(f) 15 gap is gap is reached
Reached evidence
reached reached from the
offered
evidence
offered
3.75 7.5 11.25 15
Plagiarism Plagiarism
Plagiarism Plagiarism
betwe less
Plagiarism more than between 10‐34
(g) 5 en 35‐ than
of Report 70 % %
69 % 10 %
1.25 2.5 3.75 5

Total 100
RUBRICS FOR PRESENTATION
(Evaluation to be done by Faculity/Audience)

Name of Student: MUNEEB HASSAN Registration No: 21-CE-79

 Lev Lev Level Lev Marks
el el 3 el Obtain
Sr Mark
Category 1 2 (75% 4 ed
. s
(25 (50 ) (10
%) %) 0%)
ORAL
PRESENTATION
Ⓒ Display Ⓒ Hold
Ⓒ H minima attention of
olds l eye audience with
no eye contact Ⓒ Consist the use of
contac with ent use of eye direct eye
t with audien contact with contact,
audien ce. audience. seldom looking
(a ce. Ⓒ Speaks Ⓒ Speaks at notes.
Delivery 5
) Ⓒ Sp with in uneven Ⓒ Speaks
eaks satisfactory volume with with
low vibrati little infection fluctuation in
volum on of volume and
e volum emphasis in
e key points
1.25 2.5 3.75 5
Does not
have grasp
of
Attempts
informatio Has somewhat
Content / to define Demonstrate
(b n and clear purpose
Organizati 10 purpose and full knowledge
) does not and objectives
on objectives
clearly
define
purpose
2.5 5 7.5 10
Shows little Demonstrate
Shows no Shows some
or mixed strong
interest enthusiastic
feelings enthusiasm
(c Enthusias in topic feelings
5 about the about topic
) m presente about
topic being during
d topic
presented entire
presentation
1.25 2.5 3.75 5
 Table of contents
 1.0 Introduction..........................................................................................02
 1.1 Lahore city overview................................................................................................02
 1.2 History......................................................................................................................02
 1.3 Traditional and cultural influence............................................................................ 02
 1.4 Land scape of Lahore................................................................................................02
 1.5 Climate...................................................................................................................... 03
 1.6 Population..................................................................................................................04

 2.0 Hazard assessment: smog.....................................................................05

 2.1 Smog..........................................................................................................................05
 2.2 Reactions of smog formation.................................................................................... 06
 2.3 Smog in Lahore......................................................................................................... 06
 2.4 Lahore the most polluted city.................................................................................... 07
 2.5 Deaths........................................................................................................................ 09

 3.0 Hazard assessment methodology.........................................................10

 3.1 Materials and methods...............................................................................................10

 4.0 Vulnerability assessment......................................................................12

 4.1 Pre-existing conditions...............................................................................................13

 5.0 Risk assessment analysis......................................................................13

 5.1 Health problems of concern........................................................................................15
 5.2 Maximum Individual Lifetime Cancer Risks.............................................................15
 5.3 Distribution of individual risks..................................................................................15
 5.4 Population Cancer Risks............................................................................................ 15
 5.5 Non cancer risks......................................................................................................... 15
 5.6 Uncertainty in Risk Estimates......................................................................................16

 6.0 Exposure assessment..............................................................................16

 7.0 Major findings and suggestions.............................................................17
 7.1 Reasons of increasing the air pollution in Pakistan......................................................17
 7.2 Sources of air pollution.................................................................................................17

 8.0 Mitigation strategies.................................................................................18

 8.1 Technologies for the control of air pollution................................................................ 18

 9.0 Recommendations and Conclusion.........................................................20

 10 References.................................................................................................24

0
Figure 1.0 : This shows the smog in one of the main road of Lahore which cause difficulty in the motion of vehicle.

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  1.0 Introduction
 1.1 Lahore City Overview:
Lahore is the capital of the Pakistani province of Punjab and is the country's 2nd largest city
after Karachi, as well as the 26th largest city in the world. Lahore is one of Pakistan's
wealthiest cities. It is the largest city and historic cultural centre of the wider Punjab region,
and is one of Pakistan's most socially liberal, progressive, and cosmopolitan cities.
 1.2 History:
Lahore's origins reach into antiquity. The city has been controlled by numerous empires
throughout the course of its history, including the Hindu Shahis, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, and
Delhi Sultanate by the medieval era. Lahore reached the height of its splendour under the
Mughal Empire between the late 16th and early 18th century and served as its capital city for
many years. The city was captured by the forces of the Afsharid ruler Nader Shah in 1739,
then fell into a period of decay while being contested between the Afghans and the Sikhs.
Lahore eventually became the capital of the Sikh Empire in the early 19th century and
regained some of its lost grandeur. Lahore was then annexed to the British Empire, and made
capital of British Punjab. Lahore was central to the independence movements of both India
and Pakistan, with the city being the site of both the declaration of Indian Independence, and
the resolution calling for the establishment of Pakistan. It experienced some of the worst
rioting during the Partition period preceding Pakistan's independence.Following the success of
the Pakistan Movement and subsequent partition of India in 1947, Lahore was declared the
capital of Pakistan's Punjab province.
 1.3 Traditional And Cultural Influence:
Lahore exerts a strong cultural influence over Pakistan. It is a UNESCO City of Literature and
major center for Pakistan's publishing industry; Lahore remains the foremost center of
Pakistan's literary scene. The city is also a major centre of education in Pakistan, with some of
Pakistan's leading universities based in the city.For many years, Lahore was home to
Pakistan's film industry. Lahore is a major centre of Qawwali music. The city also hosts much
of Pakistan's tourist industry, with major attractions including the Walled City, the famous
Badshahi and Wazir Khan mosques, as well as several Sikh and Sufi shrines. Lahore is also
home to the Lahore Fort and Shalimar Gardens, both of which are UNESCO World Heritage
Sites.
 1,4 Land Scape Of Lahore:
The geography of Lahore comprises the various features relating to the land and climate of
Lahore, Pakistan. Lying between 31°15′—31°45′ N and 74°01′—74°39′ E, Lahore is bounded

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on the north and west by the Sheikhupura District, on the east by Wagah, and on the south by
Kasur District. The Ravi River flows on the northern side of Lahore. Lahore city covers a total
land area of 1014 km² and is still growing.

 1.5 Climate:

Climate data for

Lahore (1961–
1990), extremes
(1931–2018)

Ja Fe Ma Ma No De Yea
Month Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
n b r y v c r

27. 33. 35. 30.

Record 37.8 46.1 48.3 47.2 46.1 42.8 41.7 40.6 48.3
8 3 0 0
high °C (10 (115 (118 (117 (115 (109 (107 (105 (118
(82 (91 (95 (86
(°F) 0.0) .0) .9) .0) .0) .0) .1) .1) .9)
.0) .9) .0) .0)

19. 22. 27. 21.

Average 27.1 33.9 38.6 40.4 36.1 35.0 35.0 32.9 30.8
8 0 4 6
high °C (80. (93. (101 (104 (97. (95. (95. (91. (87.
(67 (71 (81 (70
(°F) 8) 0) .5) .7) 0) 0) 0) 2) 4)
.6) .6) .3) .9)

12. 15. 19. 14.

20.5 26.8 31.2 33.9 31.5 30.7 29.7 25.6 24.3
Daily mean 8 4 5 2
(68. (80. (88. (93. (88. (87. (85. (78. (75.
°C (°F) (55 (59 (67 (57
9) 2) 2) 0) 7) 3) 5) 1) 8)
.0) .7) .1) .6)

11.
5.9 8.9 14.0 19.6 23.7 27.4 26.9 26.4 24.4 18.2 6.8 17.8
Average 6
(42 (48 (57. (67. (74. (81. (80. (79. (75. (64. (44 (64.
low °C (52
.6) .0) 2) 3) 7) 3) 4) 5) 9) 8) .2) 0)
(°F) .9)

−2. −1.
0.0 2.8 10.0 14.0 18.0 20.0 19.0 16.7 8.3 1.7 −2.2
Record low 2 1
(32 (37. (50. (57. (64. (68. (66. (62. (46. (35 (28.
°C (°F) (28 (30
.0) 0) 0) 2) 4) 0) 2) 1) 9) .1) 0)
.0) .0)

Average 23. 28. 202. 163. 13. 628.

41.2 19.7 22.4 36.3 61.1 12.4 4.2
rainfall 0 6 1 9 9 8
(1.6 (0.7 (0.8 (1.4 (2.4 (0.4 (0.
mm (0. (1. (7.9 (6.4 (0. (24.
2) 8) 8) 3) 1) 9) 17)
(inches) 91) 13) 6) 5) 55) 78)

3
Mean
monthly 218 215 245. 276. 308. 269. 227. 234. 265. 290. 259 222 3,03
su-nshine .8 .0 8 6 3 0 5 9 6 0 .6 .9 4
hours
Figure 1.5 : This table shows the climate variation in Lahore from 1931-2018
Lahore has a semi-arid climate , not receiving enough rainfall to feature the humid subtropical
climate. The hottest month is June where temperatures routinely exceed 45C (107F). The
monsoon season starts in late July, and the wettest months are July and August, with heavy
rainfalls and evening thunderstorms with the possibility of cloudbursts and flash floods. The
coolest month is January with dense fog.

The city's record high temperature was 50.4C (122F), recorded on 5 June 2003. 48 °C (118 °F)
was recorded on 10 June 2007. At the time the meteorological office recorded this official
temperature in the shade, it reported a heat index in direct sunlight of 55 °C (131 °F).The
highest rainfall in a 24-hour period is 221 millimetres (8.7 in), recorded on 13 August 2008.

 1.6 Population:

The results of the 2022 Census determined the population

Historical population
to be at 13,542,000, with an annual growth rate of 3.41%
Year Population Growth rate
since 1990. Gender-wise, 52.35% of the population is
1990 3,970,000 3.22%
male, while 47.64% is female, and transgender people
2000 5,576,000 4.22%
make only 0.01% of the population. Lahore is a young city
2005 6,857,000 4.21%
with over 40% of its inhabitants below the age of 15.
2010 8,432,000 4.21%
2015 10,369,000 4.22%
2018 11,738,000 4.22%
2019 12,188,000 3.83%
2021 13,095,000 3.58%
2022 13,542,000 3.41%

Table 1.6

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  2.0 Hazard assessment: Smog

Figure 2.0 : This shows the smog in one of the flyover of Lahore which cause difficulty in the motion of vehicle.

 2.1 Smog:
Smog is a kind of air pollution, originally named for the mixture of smoke and fog in the
air.Classic smog results from large amounts of coal burning in an area and is caused by a
mixture of smoke and sulfur dioxide.
In the 1950s a new type of smog, known as Photochemical Smog, was first described.Smog is
a problem in a number of cities and continues to harm human health.
Ground-level ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide carbon monoxide are especially harmful
for senior citizens, children, and people with heart and lung conditions such as emphysema,
bronchitis, and asthma.
It can inflame breathing passages, decreasing the lungs' working capacity, and causing
shortness of breath, pain when inhaling deeply, wheezing, and coughing.It can cause eye and
nose irritation and it dries out the protective membranes of the nose and throat and interferes
with the body's ability to fight infection, increasing susceptibility to illness.Hospital
admissions and respiratory deaths often increase during periods when ozone levels are high.
EPA has developed an Air Quality index to help explain air pollution levels to the general
public. 8 hour average ozone concentrations of 85 to 104 ppbv are described as "Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups", 105 ppbv to 124 ppbv as "unhealthy" and 125 ppb to 404 ppb as "very
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unhealthy." Smog can form in almost any climate where industries or cities release large
amounts of air pollution.
However, it is worse during periods of warmer, sunnier weather when the upper air is warm
enough to inhibit vertical circulation.It is especially prevalent in geologic basins encircled by
hills or mountains.
It often stays for an extended period of time over densely populated cities or urban areas, such
as London, New York, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Houston, Toronto, Athens, Beijing, Hong
Kong, the Randstad or Ruhr Area and can build up to dangerous levels.

 2,2 Reactions Of Smog Formation:

Ozone so formed oxides NO to NO2 + O2

The presence of excessive O3 along with aldehydes

ketones, produce PAN Photochemical Smog.

 2.3 Smog in Lahore:

In Lahore and its adjoining areas, over the last few
years, smog descends every November/December. Figure 2.3 : This table shows health concern of
This past month, Lahore, Pakistan, has repeatedly air in major cities of Pakistan
topped the ‘daily ranking’ of most polluted city in the world. Pollution and winter weather
conditions combine to shroud the city in smog—disrupting flights, causing major road
closures, and wreaking havoc on the health of its citizenry.

6
The problem of air pollution has been steadily growing in Lahore and many other cities in
Punjab province. Punjab is the most populous province in Pakistan with an estimated
population of 110 million people.
Five cities in Punjab were listed among the 50 ‘most polluted cities’ in the world in 2020. The
situation in other major Pakistani cities, such as the coastal megalopolis of Karachi, is not
much better. Yet, the current situation in Lahore is most alarming, with its fine particulate
count repeatedly rising well above 40 times the World Health Organisation’s air quality
guideline values, reported international media.
The smog in Lahore is caused by a confluence of metrological and anthropogenic factors
,temperature inversion traps pollution in the atmosphere, which—alongside seasonal crop
burning on the Indian-Pakistani border—combines with other sources of year-round pollution
and fog to cause a spike in pollution and winter smog.
The reasons why air quality has been steadily declining in cities like Lahore are numerous.
Vehicular emissions, industrial pollution, fossil fuel-fired power plants, the burning of waste
materials, and coal being burned by thousands of brick kilns spattered across the province are
all part of the problem.

Figure 2.3 : This shows the smog in front of Badshahi Masjid Lahore which cause difficulty in the motion of vehicle.

 2.4 Lahore The Most Polluted City:

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This past month, Lahore,
Pakistan, has repeatedly
topped the daily ranking of
most polluted city in the
world. Pollution and winter
weather conditions combine
to shroud the city in smog—
disrupting flights, causing
major road closures, and
wreaking havoc on the health
of its citizenry.
Figure 2.4:This graph shows the HISTORIC AIR QUALITY of Lahore.

The problem of air pollution has been steadily growing in Lahore and many other cities in
Punjab province. Punjab is the most populous province in Pakistan with an estimated
population of 110 million people. Five cities in Punjab were listed among the 50 most polluted
cities in the world in 2020. The situation in other major Pakistani cities, such as the coastal
megalopolis of Karachi, is not much better. Yet, the current situation in Lahore is most
alarming, with its fine particulate count repeatedly rising well above 40 times the World
Health Organization’s air quality guideline values.

Prolonged or heavy exposure to hazardous air causes varied health complications, including
asthma, lung damage, bronchial infections, strokes, heart problems, and shortened life
expectancy. The Global Alliance on Health and Pollution estimated in 2019 that 128,000
Pakistanis die annually due to air pollution-related illnesses. Decision-makers have been slow
to react to the pollution problem. In 2019, Pakistan’s minister of climate change infamously
dubbed growing concern about the smog problem in Lahore as being a conspiratorial attempt
to spread misinformation. Many officials and politicians continue blaming stubble burning by
Indian farmers as the main cause for Lahore’s smog problem. Blaming India may be a tit-for-
tat response to similar Indian accusations, but it not an accurate assessment. Ever-changing
wind patterns during the stubble-burning season mean wind directions keep fluctuating across
the India-Pakistan border. The smog in Lahore is caused by a confluence of metrological and
anthropogenic factors .Namely, temperature inversion traps pollution in the atmosphere, which
—alongside seasonal crop burning on the Indian-Pakistani border—combines with other
sources of year-round pollution and fog to cause a spike in pollution and winter smog.
The reasons why air quality has been steadily declining in cities like Lahore are numerous.
Vehicular emissions, industrial pollution, fossil fuel-fired power plants, the burning of waste
materials, and coal being burned by thousands of brick kilns spattered across the province are
all part of the problem. A Food and Agriculture Organization’s source appropriation study in
2020 singles out power producers,
industry, and the transport sector in
particular as culprits.

Over the past 15 years, Lahore has

lost a significant proportion of its
tree cover due to an aggressive plan
to build highways, underpasses, and
overpasses. Car sales in the city are
booming, and many of the cars
plying the roads spew toxic
emissions due to a lack of vehicular
Figure 2.4
8
inspections and widespread adulteration of fuel.
Even the unadulterated form of fuel available in
Lahore is of low quality.
The lack of vehicular fitness and emissions testing,
alongside use of poor-quality fuel, have
compounded the city’s air pollution problem, said
Hammad Naqi Khan, director-general of World
Wildlife Fund-Pakistan. Federal plans to switch to
Euro 5-compliant fuel have faltered due to lingering
economic troubles, including rising inflation. Faced Figure 2.4
with an alarmingly high level of air pollution in Lahore, the Punjab government has
announced the imposition of a provincial embargo on Euro 2 fuel supplies, which is supposed
to go into effect as of next month. Whether the provincial government’s plan to switch to
cleaner fuel will fare any better than the federal government’s earlier resolve remains to be
seen.
Conversely, bicyclists and pedestrians, who made up almost 45 percent of traffic in Lahore in
2015, remain a low priority when it comes to planning transport infrastructure, evidenced by
the near absence of bike lanes or even sidewalks. And while Lahore has invested in expensive
metro bus and rail projects, the feeder transit system needed to further optimize use of these
metro public transport projects has not received enough attention.

Lahore, along with the rest of Pakistan, desperately needs to shift away from its reliance on
fossil fuels. Doing so would help clean up the transport and energy production sectors
simultaneously. Last year, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority noted that due to
fossil fuels’ price volatility and renewables’ decreasing cost, viable options for meeting the
country’s energy needs through more sustainable sources were needed. Pakistani Prime
Minister Imran Khan has also set an ambitious target for Pakistan to generate 30 percent of its
energy needs via renewable sources by 2030. Achieving this target will not be easy. Powerful
interests are invested in the promotion of fossil fuels and the transmission infrastructure it
requires.
In the absence of comprehensive and concerted efforts to combat air pollution, Lahore, once
known as the “city of gardens,” is tragically choking on toxic air. Instead of looking forward
to the welcomed reprieve of winter months, Lahore’s 13 million residents now must brace
themselves for another bout of smog, which has acquired the status of a “fifth season.”

 2.5 Deaths:
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, in 2015, almost 60,000
Pakistanis died from the high level of ne particles in the air, one of the world's highest death
tolls from air pollution. On Nov 6, 2016, DAWN News reported the intense haze conditions in
Lahore (capital of Punjab) due to impending smog. They reported that NASA (the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration) has pointed out the crop stubbles burning which might
be the major reason for a smog blanket in New Delhi, and also in Lahore, as their map showed
several places in West Punjab that had thermal emissions.

9
  3.0 Hazard Assessment Methodology:

Lahore is one of the most crowded cities of Pakistan and facing the soil or road dust due to
construction, industrial and vehicular release of gases. These all has increased the pollutants in
the atmosphere, especially PM 2.5 that is recorded four times more in winter than in summer
for the data recorded over the years from November, 2005 to December, 2007 . Lahore
experienced the smog for the first time in the month of November, 2016. In Lahore annually
1,250 people lost their lives because of air pollution as the air pollution and human health have
a strong relationship. The air pollutants responsible for smog are in gaseous forms like
nitrogen oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and volatile
organic compounds. The liquid or solid forms are particulate PM 10 (less than 10 µm) or PM
2.5 (less than 2.5 µm), and some air toxins. Vehicular emission played a vital role in adding
carbon mono oxide in air pollutants. By quantification and controlled use of motor vehicles
this increase can be minimized.
The air pollutants are more in urbanized area due to the industries and vehicles and compared
to the National Air Quality Index these air pollutants are recorded high in Lahore (Ali, 2013).
For this reason, now Lahore experiences the smog and this research is carried out to highlight
the pattern of smog in Lahore through remote sensing and GIS techniques. Another objective
of this research is to investigate the effect of smog on visibility. The impacts of smog on
visibility were also examined in India with the help of remote sensing.

 3.1 Materials and Methods:

Figure briefly explains the methodological framework of the study

Figure 3.1:This figure explains the Smog hazard analysis in Lahore

1
The Flow diagram (Fig.) shows that the images of the Landsat andMODIS were taken to study the
patterns of smog. Here, the image of Landsat 4 TM was takento show the area from where the visibility
data were collectedin the days of smog at Allama Iqbal International Airport.
The Landsat processed image shows the surroundings of data site very well like built up land, vegetation
cover and vacant land.

Figure 3.1
Figure 3.1

The Figures show that whole area of Lahore is covered with smog as it is within the boundary
line of different colors.
On 1st, 2nd and 3rd November the area is completely covered with smog, but as the time
passed the smog cover seemed to disperse on 4th, and 5th November as the yellow line shows
that it is totally out of the dense zone of smog.

1
  4.0 Vulnerability Assessment:

Air pollution can cause harm to the youngest of children, including those still inside the
womb. Infants and young children are still growing and developing daily. Your lungs don’t
mature fully until you are in your twenties, and then they begin to decline around age 35.
Children stay active for a large portion of their day. They’re constantly running around, and
they need a lot of air to keep up with their busy lifestyle.
Because children tend to stay active for more extended periods, they will likely remain outside
for longer when given the opportunity. That means they are exposed to polluted air more often
than adults might be. Early on, the human body can be tremendously affected by air pollution.
The tiniest of lungs may not be able to reach their full capacity, which is a reason why adults
suffer the consequences in the future.
At the other end of the age spectrum, older adults are at high risk for difficulties due to air
pollution. Studies show that even lower levels of air pollution have long-term effects on the
elderly. With aging comes reduced lung function. As stated before, the lung function of even a
healthy human begins to decline around age 35.
Air pollution has been one of the leading causes of premature death. Elderly residents don’t
have the lung capacity of younger generations, so if you combine that with low air quality, life
expectancy declines.

Figure 4.0:This figure shows the Vulnerability Assessment of Smog in Lahore

1
 The microscopic air pollutants can enter the respiratory system through the mouth, nose and
even the eyes. They travel to the deepest part of the lungs and cause major reactions and
inflammation.
If an older adult is subjected to air pollution, shortness of breath or chronic coughing may
occur, which could lead to more serious health concerns. Since pollution levels will likely
continue to rise, the elderly should avoid high-traffic areas and check the air quality before
going outdoors.
 4.1 Preexisting conditions:
Those who suffer from preexisting medical conditions are more likely to be affected by the
detrimental consequences of air pollution. People who are prone to the harmful effects of air
pollution include people with:
 Asthma
 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
 Emphysema
 Heart disease
For those who have a lung disease like COPD or emphysema, exposure to pollution can
advance the disease and worsen the symptoms. Although COPD is most commonly found in
smokers, about a quarter of all cases are in non-smokers.
Studies have shown that there are correlations between air pollution and heart disease as well.
Long-term exposures to particles and nitrogen oxide — a common pollutant — can age blood
vessels and lead to more buildup in arteries, causing blockages that end up putting people at
higher risk for a heart attack.
Not only does air pollution worsen these preexisting medical conditions, but air pollution is
also a primary contributor to people being diagnosed with them.
Young children, the elderly and people suffering from lung-related conditions are the most
vulnerable to air pollution. It’s likely that you know at least one person in one of these
categories

 5.0 Risk Assessment Analysis

Risk assessment is one tool used in risk management. It is the

process that scientists and government officials use to estimate the increased risk of health problems in
people who are exposed to different amounts of toxic substances.
A risk assessment for a toxic air pollutant combines results of studies on the health effects of
various animal and human exposures to the pollutant with results of studies that estimate the

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level of people's exposures at different while the estimates provided bythese risk assessments are
far fromperfect, they do help scientists evaluate the risks associated with emissions of toxic air
pollutants.Using risk estimates and other factors, the government can set regulatory standards
to reduce people's exposures to toxic air pollutants and reduce the risk of experiencing health
problems.

Figure 5.0:These 2 figures shows the Risk Management of Smog in Lahore

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  5.1 Health Problems of Concern:
The toxic air pollutants of greatest concern are those that
cause serious health problems or affect many people. Health
problems can include cancer, respiratory irritation, nervous
system problems, and birth defects.

Some health problems occur very soon after a person inhales

a toxic air pollutant. These immediate effects may be minor,
such as watery eyes. Or they may be serious, such as life-
threatening lung damage.

Other health problems may not appear until many months or

years after a person's first exposure to the toxic air pollutant.
Cancer is one example of a delayed health problem.

 5.2 Maximum Individual Lifetime Cancer Risks:

Combining the results of the exposure assessment and the dose-response assessment gives an
estimate of the increased lifetime risk of cancer for an individual exposed to the maximum
predicted long-term concentration.

 5.3 Distribution of Individual Risks:

Many people may be exposed to less than the maximum level.
Depending on the amount of exposure, an individual's risk of cancer will
vary. The distribution of individual risk is usually expressed as the
number of people estimated to be at various levels of risk.

 5.4 Population Cancer Risks:

Distributions of individual risk are used to calculate population risk. The
population cancer risk is usually expressed as the expected increased
incidence of cancer (that is, the number of new cases each year) for all
people exposed to the pollutant. For example, the estimated population
cancer risk may be the number of new cancer cases per year expected
among residents within 30 miles of a certain large source.

 5.5 Noncancer Risks:

Health reference levels refer to exposure levels that will not cause significant risks of non-
cancer health effects. Long-term exposure to levels below these levels are assumed to produce
no ill effects.

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Health reference levels are an example of one index that government agencies use in
characterizing non-cancer health risks. These levels are generally developed from exposure
levels that do not produce ill effects in experimental animals. These exposure levels are
adjusted to account for animal-human differences (such as breathing rate) and for underlying
uncertainties (such as the difference in sensitivity between healthy adults and more sensitive
people like children and the elderly).

Risk analysts then compare the health reference levels with the exposure estimates to
determine how many people are exposed to concentrations higher than the health reference
level. Some of these people might experience ill effects.

 5.6 Uncertainty in Risk Estimates:

Although scientists can estimate risks caused by toxic air pollutants in animals experimentally
or in humans who have unusual exposures, converting these estimates to those expected in
people under a wide range of conditions is difficult, and can be misleading.

By their nature, risk estimates cannot be completely accurate. The main problem is that
scientists don't have enough information on actual exposure and on how
toxic air pollutants harm human cells. The exposure assessment often
relies on computer models when the amount of pollutant getting from the
source(s) to people can't be easily measured. Dose-response relationships
often rely on assumptions about the effects of pollutants on cells for
converting results of animal experiments at high doses to human
exposures at low doses.

When information is missing or uncertain, risk analysts generally make assumptions that tend
to prevent them from under estimating the potential risk -- that is, these assumptions provide a
margin of safety in the protection of human health.\

 6.0 Exposure assessment:

An exposure assessment estimates how much of a pollutant people inhale during a specific
time period, as well as how many people are exposed.
There are many sources of toxic air pollutants. For example, a factory smokestack or
thousands of automobiles crossing a busy intersection each day could be the source of a
pollutant of concern. So the first step in an exposure assessment is to decide which sources are
giving off the pollutant of concern.

Once the identity and location of the source(s) are known, the next step is to determine the
amounts of the toxic air pollutant released in a specific time period and how it moves away
from the source(s).

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Engineers use either monitors or computer models to estimate the amount of pollutant released
from the source and the amount of pollutant at different distances from the source. Monitors
are used to sample the air and measure how much of the pollutant is present.

Computer models use mathematical equations that represent the processes that occur when a
facility releases a pollutant and also the movement of pollutants through the air. Factors such
as distance from the source to exposed persons, wind speed and direction, and smokestack
height (for factories) affect these estimates.

The number of people exposed at different distances from the site of release can be estimated
with computer models that use information from the census and from maps. Some models can
even estimate exposures for the different places people are each day -- including indoor,
automobile, outdoor, and workplace exposures.

The final step in an exposure assessment is to estimate the amounts each person inhales. To do
this, scientists combine estimates of breathing rates and lifespan of an average person with
estimates of the amount of pollutant in that person's air.

 7.0 Major findings and suggestions:

 7.1 Reasons of increasing the air pollution in Pakistan:

There many different factors behind the increasing of air pollution in Pakistan some of them
are given below
1. Increasing the pollution day by day
2. Globalization
3. Urbanization

4. Usage of heavy transport

5. High temperature or sunny climate
6. Bricks making fireplace
7. Lack of gardening
Increasing of population means increasing of needs and demands of people which lead to the
pollution.

 7.2 Sources Of Air Pollution:

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Some of the above-mentioned air pollution are released to the environment during the burning
of coal or combustion of fuels like petroleum, wood, coal and many more. Some of the
examples are given below for these air
pollution
1. Vehicles runs on fuels like gasoline and
diesel e.g. cars, trains, trucks…etc
2. Industries and factories
3. Power sectors

4. Fireplaces
5. Engines where incomplete combustion
Pollutants mix with air through evaporation also some sources of such like air pollution are
1. The places where solvents are paints used.
2. There are service stations, fuels terminals and other refineries.

3. Storage tankers of petroleum and their transport.

 8.0 Mitigation startegies:

Figure 8.0:This shows the Mitigation strategies of Smog in Lahore

 8.1 Technologies for the control of air pollution:

From numerous years, there were covers between our experts who oversee the air
contamination control and their techniques, procedures or systems for the anticipation of air
contamination. Due to this our country confronted numerous issues are as yet confronting like,
wellbeing perils our condition aggravate air contamination are expanded stepby step. Here are
some key purposes of these covers:
1. Fixed the pollutants emission limits

2. All emission sources should be identify

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3. Find out the modification for the process
4. Define the problems
5. Selecting the control systems for problems

Fixed the pollutants emission limits:

The first and introductory issue for the air contamination control is the impediments for the
toxins discharge in the earth by enterprises, household or different sources as per the national
air quality guidelines. The air quality standard for the outflow for Pakistan are characterized
however there is some lack to apply these principles which are the reason for the expanded
contamination step by step and face numerous issues

All emission sources should be indentify:

After the restrictions of the emanation the second step is to recognize the sources there are
numerous sources, ventures, local, control parts, transports, and human exercises. A portion of
these are low emanation sources however some discharge their outflows in uncountable points
of confinement. There the numerous different sources which are excluded in the above which
are unintentional discharges, undesignated emanations and re outflow.

Find out the modification for the process:

After the study of the process, it should be considered to modification in the process to
efficient for the emissions control. This type of control modification often shows the
economical and efficient way to reduce the emissions and the loss of equipment controls.
There are some techniques to make it efficient for reduce emissions
i. Less toxic or less volatile solvent
ii. Replacement of the raw materials with purity
iii. By changing the Operating conditions
iv. By recycling of the streams

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Figure (3.0 to 8.0):This figure covers the whole HAZARD ANALYSIS PROCESS

 9.0 Recommendations And Conclusion:

Since the burning activity of rice residue occurs in October and November every year, the
resultant air pollutant emissions from this burning activity would also be occurring only in
these two months. On the other hand, power, industry, and transport runs all over the year, the
resultant air pollutant emissions from these sectors would also be occurring during the twelve
months. Assuming that energy sector activities operate uniformly in a year, the total emissions
are disaggregated into per month emissions. This gives the realistic comparison of sectoral air
pollutant emissions and share in Punjab as shown in Figure 4.23 and Figure 4.24. The major
portion of total air pollutant emissions are coming from the transport sector (269 GG) and it
holds 43% share in all sectors (power, industry, transport, and crop residue burning - CRB).
The second key sector responsible for air pollutant emissions in Punjab is industry whose
share is 25% and amounts 154 GG. The sector at number three is agriculture (rice residue

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burning). It accounts for 20% (121 GG) of total air pollutant emissions with respect to other
sectors. The emissions from residue burning of other crops have not been estimated due to the
fact that since smog usually happens in October and November and these two months only
involves burning of rice residue. The last sector is a power which amounts 74 GG and
contributes 12% in total emissions. Collectively, it is clear from the gures that the main sectors
responsible for air pollutant emissions in Punjab are power, industry, and transport which
together hold 80% contribution in air pollutant emissions and aids in the formation of
photochemical smog in Punjab. Though the emission contribution of the burning of rice
residue is minimal as compared to other sectors but may support signicantly the seasonal smog
phenomenon in Punjab.
Based on the conclusion, the following are some of the key sectoral recommendations with
regard to the reduction of air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion process and crop
residue burning:
1. SOx emissions from combustion processes in power stations and industry could be
controlled by implementing following distinguished technical measures.
a) Changes in the energy system leading to lower consumption of sulfur containing fuels (by
energy conservation or fuel substitution).
b) The use of low-sulfur fuels, including fuel desulfurization.

c) In-furnace control of SO2 emissions (e.g., through limestone injection or with several types
of uidized bed combustion).
d) Conventional wet ue gas desulfurization processes.
e) Advanced, high-eciency methods for capturing sulfur from the ue gas.
2. For NOx emissions control in power and industry sector, the following two broad groups of
technical emission control options are well-known :

a) In-furnace control of NOx emissions for stationary sources, i.e., the so-called combustion
modications (CM) or primary
NOx reduction measures.
b) Secondary measures depending on the treatment of ue gases (selective catalytic reduction
(SCR), selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR)).

3. In the case of controlling VOCs and CO emission in power and industry sector, there is a
number of ways in which the combustion eciency could be increased and emissions reduced.
Some of them include the following options .
a) Replacing old with the new boilers can signifcantly reduce VOC and CO emissions.
b) Improving the performance of old boilers which include external furnaces, ceramic inserts,
and pellet burners.
c) Utilization of oxidation catalysts which the most cost effective way to eliminate or reduce
VOC and CO.

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4. Furthermore, for reducing particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from large boilers in power
stations and industry, there are following seven end-of-pipe options available
a) Cyclones

b) Wet scrubbers
c) Electrostatic precipitators (three stages, i.e., one eld, two elds, and more than two elds)
d) Wet electrostatic precipitators
e) Fabric lters
f) Regular maintenance of oil-red industrial boilers

g) Two stages (low and high eciency) of fugitive emissions control measures
5. For controlling air pollutant (NOx, CO, VOCs, PM2.5 and SOx) emissions from road
transport, options available are divided into the following categories.
a) Changes in engine design, which result in better control of the combustion processes in the
engine.

b) Changes in fuel quality, e.g., decrease in sulfur content. Changes in fuel specications may
provide engine manufacturers with the greater exibility to use new emission reduction
technologies.
c) Flue gas post-combustion treatment, using various types of trap concepts and catalysts to
convert or capture emissions before they leave the exhaust pipe.
d) Better inspection and maintenance. Examples are in-use compliance testing, in-service
inspection, and maintenance, onboard diagnostic systems.
6. For reducing crop residue burning, following control measures could be taken into account.
a) Awareness must be created amongst the farming communities about the negative impacts of
crop biomass burning and importance of crop residues incorporation in the soil for
maintaining sustainable agricultural productivity.

b) With the development of recent technologies, rice residues can be processed and managed
using better practices. Management options for rice residues can be classied as in-eld and off-
eld management. Some of the off-eld options include using rice straw for livestock feed,
mushroom production, anaerobic digestion (biogas production) and mulching.
c) Support to be provided by the government to help farmers to purchase machines that can
harvest with less residues, to adopt relevant climate smart practices to help increase yields and
to use residues as fertilizer, animal feed supply, biogas production, or sell for use in different
industries instead of being burnt.
d) Avoid usage of combine harvesters and promote no till and zero till methods of cultivation.
e) Manual harvesting of crops is a much better option than mechanical harvesting as the elds
are ploughed easily, so everything is mixed up and acts as a fertilizer. However, as this is
labor-intensive, there are some locally developed machines that can harvest crops from the
roots. But they are expensive, so government subsidies can help farmers in this regard.

2
f) Educating farmers to make them aware of the monetizing opportunities from selling the
residue products.
g) Responsibilities of local and central governments should be dened to improve coordination
and cooperation between departments; to carry out various forms of information and
education; to monitor re spots by meteorological and environmental satellite; and to strengthen
the inspection of illegal activities, etc.

h) To curb smoke from stubble burning in the post-monsoon, such technologies as Turbo
Happy Seeder machines could be introduced to farmers (a tractor-mounted machine that cut
and lifts standing stubble and drills wheat seeds into the bare soil without burning).
I) There is a need for crop residue-based renewable energy planning. A number of such
initiatives are being undertaken in the neighboring countries to utilize the potential of crop
residues for bio-energy generation .
7. An urgent need is the collection of high-quality data in various districts of Punjab,
especially those which cover the rice belt, on a regular basis. It is suggested that air-quality
monitoring stations may be installed throughout Punjab province, and air samples of winter
smog and post-monsoon smoky haze should be taken. More evidence needs to be collected
regarding sources and transport pathways of emissions of ne mode aerosols affecting northern
Punjab.

8. The data can help create awareness and provide information necessary for crafting targeted
solutions. For example, if it is established that winter smog contains vehicular and industrial
pollutants rather than smoke particles, the remedy would be to improve fuel quality, install
catalytic converters (which render NOx emissions inert), and regulate point sources of
emissions.
9. Promotion of such practices such as water sprinkling and vacuum cleaning of roads,
restrictions (e.g., through a ruling by law courts) on eld res to burn crop remnants, provision of
public health education, especially for school going
children, or the creation of articial rain depending upon the feasibility.
10. Establishment of early-warning systems for potentially severe smog incidents and smog
monitoring network is also recommended.

11. Long run recommendations include investment in public transport to reduce aggregate fuel
consumption, shift to cleaner fuels and renewable energy, and smart urban design, with
indigenous species of plants and on a human-centric approach.
12. Finally, since smog is a regional problem, which also affects neighboring countries (e.g.,
India, Iran, and Afghanistan), there may be a case for inter-country collaboration on data and
information exchange as well as collaborative strategies. Cumulative measures and joint
efforts can help eradicate a problem that respects no boundaries.

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 10 References:

 Risk Assessment for toxic air pollution, Report on EPA

https://www3.epa.gov/airtoxics/3_90_024.html
 Science daily, Wikipedia, short Article by Wiley, Sulphur Dioxide basics on US
EPA, Smog-Energy Education by Wikipedia commons, Environmental Canada
https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/smog.htm#:~:text=Smog%20is%20a%20kind%2
0of,of%20smoke%20and%20sulfur%20dioxide.&text=Smog%20is%20a%20problem
%20in,continues%20to%20harm%20human%20health.
 Smog-Wikipedia, (4) Health effects
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smog
 Britannica, Article by Adam Zeidan on Smog in Lahore
https://www.britannica.com/science/smog
 Sciencedirect, Article on planetary-sciences by O.O. Osibanjo, A. Retama
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/smog
 Conserve-Energy-Future, Smog formation
https://www.conserve-energy-future.com/smogpollution.php
 Smog Hazard Assessment, Article on The Royal Society Publishing by Lu Deng
and Zhengjun Zhang
https://scholar.google.com.pk/scholar?q=smog+hazard+assessment&hl=en&as_sdt=0
&as_vis=1&oi=scholart
 Taylor & Francis online, Article by Sibo Chen
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09593339109385077
 Researchgate, Article by Zartab Jahan, Faiza Sarwar, Isma younes, Adeel Ahmad
on smog pattern visibility and its effects
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343888654_Assessment_of_Smog_Pattern_a
nd_its_Effects_on_Visibility_in_Lahore_Using_Remote_Sensing_and_GIS
 MPDI, health impacts of winter smog in Lahore, Article by Fatima Jabeen, Zulfiqar Ali,
Amina Maharjan
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1532/pdf