Confidential Weekly Edition

Pakistan Security and Political Situation Report & Threat Analysis

Date: February 20, 2011
1
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2008 BrassTacks. All rights reserved. This document is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of BrassTacks. The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However, neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequences arising from the use of the information contained herein. [email protected]

Pakistan-India Relations, Kashmir and External Defense Analysis. Eastern F ront:

Indians are now trying to pacify the exploding emotions in Kashmir. Under intense pressure of the civilian intifada and the latest uprising in the occupied valley, Indian establishment is facing extreme embarrassment as now they cannot even blame Pakistan for fomenting it. Apart from the external US pressure where Pakistan is exploiting its strategic leverage on US due to NATO supplies, the internal peaceful civilian rebellion is the second decisive factor putting the Indian government on the defensive.

--------------------------------------------------------------India to pare down Kashmir forces ---------------------------------------------------------------By Jawed Naqvi NEW DELHI, Feb 13: India plans to withdraw nearly 10,000 paramilitary personnel from Jammu and Kashmir this year as it feels that the region can do with less central forces, Press Trust of India (PTI) said on Sunday.PTI quoted Home Secretary G.K. Pillai as saying also that amendments to the draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which gives arbitrary powers to troops, are still on the table... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/india-to-pare-down-kashmir- forces.html
Last week, we gave the following assessment of the developments between Pakistan and India. In a desperate bid to reduce frictions between Pakistan and India and to pacify a visibly angry Pakistan for allowing Indian access into Afghanistan, US finally pressurized Delhi to come to talks with Pakistan on all issues. India would never come to talk to Pakistan under the circumstances if the US pressure was not the deciding factor. On the other hand, US would never pressurize India, if Pakistan had not threatened US of reduction or even withdrawing of its support to US operations in Afghanistan if Indian influence in Afghanistan is not reduced. We doubt both US as well as India when they agree to talks with Pakistan. US want to pacify Pakistan and India wants to buy time! There is nothing more to these parleys Despite being on the defensive, there is no way, Indians are going to have a soft heart for Pakistan or would want a peace process to be initiated. Under the faade of Aman ki Asha, or the desire for peace project, Indian foreign office and media had started the social and cultural engagements between Pakistani and Indian celebrities and media. This was basically one way traffic to import Indian media and psy-ops inside Pakistan. But when Pakistani singers start to make big in India, the establishment cracks down upon them to take back all what they have earned! In the past singers like Adnan Sami Khan also had to go through this

treatment when his entire wealth in India was confiscated. Now another singer has been ripped off his earnings, delivering a near death blow to the aman ki asha.

---------------------------------------------------------------Singer Rahat detained in Delhi under customs act ---------------------------------------------------------------NEW DELHI, Feb 13: Noted Pakistani singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan was detained at the airport here on Sunday evening for allegedly attempting to leave the country with over $124,000.According to sources, the artiste is likely to be arrested for trying to take foreign exchange way above the permitted limit out of the country. Indian laws allow up to $5,000 in cash, or $10,000 in travellers cheques, to be taken abroad... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/singer-rahat-detained- in-delhi-under-customsact.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Rahat charged with violating forex rules ---------------------------------------------------------------NEW DELHI, Feb 19: Indias Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) on Saturday charged Pakistani singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan and his manager Maroof with violations of the countrys foreign exchange and customs regulations in connection with the recovery of huge undeclared foreign currency from them at the airport here last week.The DRI, which detained the duo from Indira Gandhi international airport on Feb 13 with allegedly undeclared $124,000 and some other instruments in foreign currency, has completed its probe and sent the matter for adjudication, which will be done by the commissioner of customs (airports), sources said. The commissioner may impose heavy penalty on the duo for violations of the law, they said... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/rahat-charged-with-violating- forex-rules.html

But within India, the tussle between the ruling Congress party and the opposition party BJP is now benefitting the Muslims and Pakistans cause as another sinister dimension of Indian society is being exposed which defines the penetration of Hindu extremists and fascists in the Indian establishment, politics and military. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had fired fierce salvos on the opposition when he had acknowledged that Hindu extremists are a bigger threat to Indian federation than Muslim Jihadists or even Al-Qaeda. Now the battle has also gone to the courts and the links of Hindu extremists with Indian mainstream parties are being questioned. ---------------------------------------------------------------Court urged to reopen case against Advani ---------------------------------------------------------------By Jawed Naqvi NEW DELHI, Feb 18: Indias federal police moved the Supreme Court on Friday against a nine- month-old High Court order that dropped charges of criminal conspiracy against top Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders, including former ministers Lal Kishen Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, in the Babri Masjid

demolition case.In its appeal, the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI) said that the Allahabad High Court had not come to the right conclusion and the charges of criminal conspiracy should be restored against the leaders... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/court-urged-to-reopen-case-against-advani-2.html
But the fact remains that Unknown to the world, a terrorism breeding fascist ideology is taking decisive control over the largest democracy of the world, posing an existential threat to the region as well as to the world at large. Under the faade of secularism, driven by extreme sentiments of hatred and a desire for revenge for being humiliated and ruled over for a thousand years by the Islamic and Western civilizations, the Hindu Brahmin zealots in India are inflaming the masses religious passions to a mad frenzy, spreading the cancerous ideology into the Indian establishment as well as the armed forces with a fierce desire to take control of the military and nuclear weapons in order to wage a decisive and total war for Akhand Bharat or greater India! Though the boundaries of this mythical land for the Brahmin elite stretch from Malaysia to Kabul, it is Pakistan that remains the first and the most formidable hurdle in this proposed Hindu Zionist expansion. Pakistan fights not just for its own identity, ideology and geography but also for the entire civilized world against this lurking but hitherto unknown threat! Following is the list of the terror attacks carried out by the Hindu militant groups but were falsely blamed on innocent Muslims in India and the Pakistani ISI. Dozens of Muslim youth are still languishing in Indian jails after being accused of these attacks: SAFFRON TERROR ATTACKS Samjhauta Express In February 2007, two firebombs exploded on a train commonly known as the "Friendship Express", which travels across the Indo-Pakistani border. Most of the 68 victims and 50 injured were of Pakistani origin. Three more unexploded suitcase bombs were later found on the train as well. Mecca Masjid in May 2007,an attack on the Mecca Masjid , in Hyderabad's old city, left 14 people dead with five apparently killed by police firing on a furious mob after the incident. Swami Aseemanand said that the site was chosen because the local administrator wanted Hyderabad to be a part of Pakistan during partition. Malegaon In September 2008, three bomb blasts killed 37 people in the Muslim-majority city of Malegaon, situated about 250km northeast of Maharashtra's state capital, Mumbai. Muslims had been attending prayers when the bombs exploded in a sacred burial ground, also injuring more than 125 people. AjmerShareef A famous Muslim shrine in the city of Ajmer in Rajasthan, about 350km southwest of Delhi, was targeted by bomb attacks in October. Two people were killed and 17 injured near the scared shrine, which houses the tomb of a 13th-century Sufi saint. Swami Aseemanand said the blast was intended to deter Hindus from going there.

Saffron Brigade and Indian army The Indian armys links with Hindu terrorist groups came to the fore when chief of Maharashtra ATS Hemant Karkare, during theinvestigation of the 2008 Malegaon blast, first blew the lid off the Hindutva terror cell and its connections with the military establishment. Lt Col Purohit, who was attached with the military intelligence unit at Nashik, was arrested by Karkare. This was the time when a shocking revelation was made that the serving Indian army officer, Lt. Col Purohit was found involved in planning and providing explosives for the attacks on Samjhauta Express. After his confession, many serving and retired Indian army officers have been accused and investigated. A brief list is given below. Indian Army Officer Gen (R) J. J Singh Has been involved in Saffron terror activities till his retirement; Col. Purohits statement Establishing militant wing of ShivSena while serving in Indian army Establishing Indias secular suicide bombing squad Providing RDX explosives for Samjhuta Express blasts conspiringMalegon and Samjhuta Express attacks conspiringMalegon and Samjhuta Express attacks conspiringMalegon and Samjhuta Express attacks Status Retired

Gen (R) PremnathHoon

Retired

Colonel JayantChitale Col ShinkarPurohit Col Raikar Patel Col Hasmukh Colonel BapadityaDhar

Retired Convicted Accused / Investigated Accused / Investigated Accused / Investigated

The exact extent of Hindutva influence within the Indian military remains speculative but the involvement of Generals and Military Academy in-charge, as in the case of Col Jayant Chitale, indicates that these non-state actors within the Indian national security infrastructure have considerable powers to execute their own version of Operation Northwood. (The CIA planned covert operation during 1960s to carry out false flag operations to put blame on USSR and Cuba.) Gen (R ) Hoon and Col Chitale had also formed maiden suicide bombing squad in the region. In the coming days, this Hindutva dimension in the Indian social, political and military domains would be the decisive factor in determining the peace in the region, not the Islamic extremism.

Western Theatre:
US is now genuinely desperate and frustrated as Pakistani anger continues to rise over the Davis crisis. The entire US diplomacy, administration, military and political pressure is bearing down on Pakistan but the Pakistani courts, armed forces and the citizens are firm to see the justice through. This is the most critical and embarrassing diplomatic crisis for US where they find themselves hopelessly frustrated.

----------------------------------------------------------------Pakistans stance on some issues frustrating, says CIA ----------------------------------------------------------------By Anwar Iqbal WASHINGTON, Feb 17: Pakistans cooperation has helped keep Al Qaeda at its weakest point since 9/11, say US intelligence chiefs, but they also complain that the countrys reluctance to take action against certain other groups frustrates America.During a testimony at the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, CIA Director Leon Panetta described the US-Pakistan relationship as very complicated and acknowledged that the two countries often differed on various issues. One of those complicating issues is the fact that theyre a nuclear power, he said. They have a number of nuclear sites throughout their country, and they have proceeded to keep up development of their nuclear weapons... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/18/pakistans-stance-on-some- issues- frustrating-sayscia.html

Nightmare of US foreign policy Pakistani nation in rage against US!

---------------------------------------------------------------Stop fome nting anti-Ame ricanism, Hillary urges Pakistan ---------------------------------------------------------------NEW YORK, Feb 18: As a diplomatic standoff between Pakistan and the United States festers, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned on Friday that Pakistan risked major instability at home and a hampered war effort in next-door Afghanistan if it didnt implement reforms and stop fomenting anti-American sentiment.In a speech at the Asia Society, Ms Clinton said Pakistani cooperation was critical to the success of the fight against Taliban and Al Qaeda extremists in neighbouring Afghanistan. She also said it was no secret that we have not always seen eye to eye with Pakistan... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/stop-fomenting-anti-americanism- hillary- urgespakistan.html
Last week, we had predicted the following assessment on the crisis for US and the PPP regime. It is not just the PPP government but also the US administration and the CIA which is in the panic mode over Davis. He was no ordinary employee of the CIA. He was someone very special, on very critical mission someone CIA cannot afford to leave in Pakistani hands for many dirty secrets may spill out. US is bringing down all the pressure it can but even the US know, they are in a genuine crisis here. A full blown diplomatic war is on the verge now between Pakistan and US which would translate into economic and military cooperation between the two countries. It is this kind of crisis which can bring down weak governments and PPP is visibly nervous. We do not see any early resolution of Davis crisis. The national mood is angry. Armed forces want to see the justice done and investigations conducted to know the exact levels of CIA operations through covert operatives. Judiciary and Police are also firm in pursuing the course of law. This makes it extremely complicated affair

President Obama had to step in to try to increase the pressure but even he was frustrated. This was the maximum pressure US could bring and shows the height of desperation. Senator John Kerry flew in to Islamabad to seek his release but had to return empty handed. US is not used to this sort of humiliation at the hands of Pakistanis. This is the new Pakistan they are dealing with.

----------------------------------------------------------------Obama joins pressure team, wants Davis treated as diplomat ----------------------------------------------------------------By Anwar Iqbal WASHINGTON, Feb 15: Hours after police in Lahore submitted a preliminary investigation report in a court accusing American national Raymond Davis of killing two Pakistanis on a street in Lahore on Jan 27, US President Barack Obama urged Pakistan to abide by the Vienna Convention, treat Davis as a diplomat and release him.President Obama, while insisting that Pakistan must not prosecute Mr Davis, said he also was concerned about the loss of Pakistani lives in the incident. Obviously were concerned about the loss of life, Mr Obama said at a Washington press

conference. Still, he said, Mr Davis should be treated as a diplomat. Theres a broader principle at stake that I think we have to uphold.... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/obama-joins-pressure-team-wants-davis-treatedas-diplomat.html

Game changing? Begging for mercy Kerry in Islamabad!

--------------------------------------------------------------Kerry in Lahore as part of efforts to get Davis released ---------------------------------------------------------------By Amjad Mahmood LAHORE, Feb 15: The United States stepped up its efforts on Tuesday to get Raymond Davis released from custody, with Senator John Kerry spending a busy day in the Punjab capital to try and sort out the complicated matter that has strained USPak relations.Mr Kerry, who heads the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, presented a spirited case for the grant of diplomatic immunity to Mr Davis, and said that the American legal system could have a look at the case after the suspects return to the United States. He also expressed regrets on behalf of the American government and people over the loss of lives in the unfortunate incident.... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/kerry- in-lahore-as-part-of-efforts-to-get-davisreleased.html

But even the otherwise corrupt and compromised Pakistani Police was not impressed despite the demands by no less than the US President!

---------------------------------------------------------------Davis is killer, Lahore police tell judge ---------------------------------------------------------------By Khalid Hasnain LAHORE, Feb 15: The investigation wing of the Lytton Road police and prosecution officials submitted on Tuesday a double-murder challan (preliminary police report) against US national Raymond Davis to the court of Lahore District and Sessions Judge (DSJ) Abdul Waheed Khan.After consulting some additional district and sessions judges, the DSJ marked the case to the court of ADSJ Mohammad Youssuf Aujla.... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/davis- is-killer- lahore-police-tell-judge.html

Public emotions demanding his scalp! The PPP regime would have already succumbed under pressure if they had not feared their own demise under public wrath. The PPP leaders are already making outrageous claims and pondering ways and means to provide relief to the arrested terrorist. PML(N) is running the show in Punjab and they are also negotiating on behalf of the Americans for a blood money settlement. ---------------------------------------------------------------Davis has immunity, claims Fauzia ---------------------------------------------------------------By Habib Khan Ghori KARACHI, Feb 14: Pakistan Peoples Partys Information Secretary Fauzia Wahab said on Monday that US national Raymond Davis had a diplomatic visa and he could neither be arrested nor kept in custody under the Vienna Convention.He (Davis) is a technical member of the US embassys diplomatic staff and according to Pakistani laws, any diplomat and technical or administrative staff cannot be arrested or taken into custody, she told reporters at the Karachi Press Club... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/15/davis-has- immunity-claims- fauzia.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------Govt likely to back Daviss immunity ---------------------------------------------------------------By Baqir Sajjad Syed ISLAMABAD, Feb 15: The government is expected to concede before the Lahore High Court on Thursday that jailed American official Raymond Davis, accused of murdering two men last month, qualifies for diplomatic immunity under the Vienna Convention. The LHC will be informed that the US embassys notification of Jan 20 in respect of Raymond http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/govt- likely-to-back-daviss- immunity.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Blood money option being studied for Daviss release ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, Feb 17: After a whirlwind trip to Islamabad and Lahore by US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, the focus appears to be shifting from immunity for US national Raymond Davis to a possible blood money deal for ending the row which has put Pak-US ties on a freeze. Efforts are now afoot to thrash out a deal in which the US apologises for the incident and pays compensation to the heirs of the victims, an official said. The idea was first floated by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at the National Seerat Conference on Wednesday and then during his meeting with Mr Kerry... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/18/blood- money-option-being-studied- for-davissrelease.html

In this case, even the lower and higher judiciary is standing firm so far, taking the pressure and siding with the people, armed forces and the patriots. This unique display of national will by the Pakistanis is genuinely embarrassing the US administration. ---------------------------------------------------------------Magistrate orders 14-day re mand: Court orders Daviss name on ECL ---------------------------------------------------------------By Khalid Hasnain LAHORE, Feb 17: Lahore High Court Chief Justice Ijaz Ahmad Chaudhry asked the federal government on Thursday to keep the name of US national Raymond Davis, who has confessed to killing two young men, on the exit control list till the disposal of identical petitions challenging his possible handover and immunity status.Meanwhile, a judicial magistrate sent Davis to jail on a 14-day judicial remand in a case relating to carrying illegal arms... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/18/magistrate-orders-14-day-remand-court-ordersdaviss-name-on-ecl.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------LHC orders action against US driver ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter LAHORE, Feb 18: The Lahore High Court has ordered the Punjab police to proceed, in accordance with law, on a case registered against a US Consulates driver accused of crushing a man to death while driving a vehicle to rescue Raymond Davis involved in shooting to death two youths last month. The court also directed police to record statements of the complainant and eyewitnesses... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/lhc-orders-action-against-us-driver.html

Faced with the prospects of arrest of the remaining accused as well, US diplomats are now on a damage control mission. While they try to calm down a visibly nervous PPP government, they also evacuate their people out of the country to keep them away from arrests. PPP government is pleading the US to understand their own vulnerabilities against a visibly hostile nation and a firm judiciary. If the US pushes the PPP government too fast, too far, there would be a coup in Islamabad. ---------------------------------------------------------------Davis spat: US makes moves to repair relations ---------------------------------------------------------------By Baqir Sajjad Syed ISLAMABAD, Feb 19: The United States has revived its high- level engagement with Pakistan after keeping it suspended for almost a fortnight because of the impasse over immunity for its jailed staffer Raymond Davis. Observers interpreted the resumption of contacts as an attempt by the US to tone down the rhetoric so that prospects for a settlement through blood money or some other out of the bo x solution got a boost.Pressure from extremist and rightwing political groups on the bereaved families for spurning any compensation offer, however, remains the sticking point, even though both sides have largely agreed to work together towards ending the ominous stalemate, according to sources... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/davis-spat-us- makes-moves-to-repairrelations.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Davis case: Two US officials slip out of Pakistan ---------------------------------------------------------------By Anwar Iqbal WASHINGTON, Feb 19: A US Embassy official who ran his vehicle over a Pakistani citizen while rushing to assist Raymond Davis has slipped out of the country and is now in the United States along with another American official

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involved in the incident, officials say.A senior US official said in Washington that both left Pakistan soon after the Jan 27 incident in Lahore... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/davis-case-two-us-officials-slip-out-ofpakistan.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Davis case wont derail talks, says Pakistan ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, Feb 13: Pakistans standoff with Washingto n over a jailed US Embassy worker will not thwart talks between the two countries and Afghanistan, a government spokesman said here on Sunday. http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/davis-case-wont-derail- talks-says-pakistan.html

Pakistan is now also protecting its own interest on Afghan Transit trade agreement, which were done under the arm twisting of the Americans to benefit the Indians. ----------------------------------------------------------------Differences stall enforce ment of ne w Afghan trade accord ----------------------------------------------------------------By Mubarak Zeb Khan ISLAMAMAD, Feb 13: Pakistan has offered to delay the implementation of a new transit trade agreement for at least four months, while politely turning down Afghanistans demand to withdraw a clause about bank guarantee aimed at curbing smuggling and pilferage of containers in Pakistani markets. The issue of bank guarantee and other matters have held up the implementation of the US-sponsored Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) signed on Oct 28 last year, which was scheduled to become operational on Feb 12. http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/differences-stall- enforcement-of-new-afghantrade-accord.html

Seeing the mood in Pakistan now, US is desperate to find its own links and contacts with the Afghan resistance. Pakistan holds the key to any strategic dialogue between US and the Pashtun resistance but now, under sheer frustration, US is trying to find alternate means. There is not much US can do about their logistical lines which pass through Pakistan as well but Washington feels that they can make some progress in direct talks with the resistance. That is a misconception as well. With every passing day, Pakistan is getting the grips on the US policy in Afghanistan. The frustration and anger in US/NATO is visibly obvious.

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---------------------------------------------------------------US in direct talks with Taliban, says magazine ---------------------------------------------------------------WASHINGTON, Feb 19: The United States has entered into direct talks with leaders of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but contacts are exploratory and not yet a peace negotiation, according to an article on Saturday in the New Yorker magazine.The article, citing people briefed on the talks, said the talks are to assess who in the Taliban leadership, if anyone, might engage in formal peace negotiations and under what conditions... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/us- in-direct-talks-with-taliban-says- magazine.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Pakistans airspace violated ---------------------------------------------------------------By Saleem Shahid QUETTA, Feb 15: A Nato fighter jet violated Pakistans airspace on Tuesday and flew over the border town of Chaman for some time.Sources said the jet intruded into Pakistans airspace over the Salahuddin border post and, after flying for some time, went back to Afghanistan. The Nato fighter flying low intruded into our airspace by up to 2km, Naymatullah Achakzai, a resident of Chaman, told Dawn by phone..... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/pakistans-airspace- violated.html

There are signs that in the coming days, relations between Pakistan and United States would be more seriously strained. There are no reasons to believe otherwise. If the US had not been so desperately dependent upon Pakistan in Afghanistan, a physical war would already have been imposed or US would have penetrated Pakistani tribal areas. Threats of economic and diplomatic isolation are already being given and frustrations are all time high on military spheres. Pakistan is on very strong footings. The PPP regime is not. Davis just might take this government with him this time. ******** The entire Middle East and North Africa is in turmoil now. These are the acts of the drama Henry Kissinger had warned about. Clearly CIA orchestrated uprisings to create anarchy, chaos and headless states within the Muslim heartlands. Now Libya and Bahrain as well as Yemen and Algeria also see serious riots after Tunis and Egypt. It is on ly a matter of time when Syria and Saudi Arabia are also hit by the unrest.

---------------------------------------------------------------Uprising wave engulfs Arab world: Libyan govt clamps down on protesters; toll tops 80 ---------------------------------------------------------------MANAMA, Feb 19: Unrest flared anew in the Arab world on Saturday as reports emerged of more than 80 killed in a bloody crackdown in Libya and protesters again seized a main square in Bahrains capital after security forces withdrew.As Libyan

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leader Muammar Qadhafi faced an unprecedented challenge to his rule, protesters in Bahrain returned to Pearl Square in Manama as police and troops pulled back in an apparent conciliatory move... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/uprising-wave-engulfs-arab-world-libyan-govtclamps-down-on-protesters-toll- tops-80.html

Libya!

Yemen! ---------------------------------------------------------------Thousands seek regime change in Bahrain ---------------------------------------------------------------MANAMA, Feb 15: Thousands of Bahrainis demonstrated in the capital Manama on Tuesday demanding regime change in the Gulf kingdom like that in Egypt and Tunisia after two protesters were killed in clashes with police.The protests in a country, which saw deadly unrest in the 1990s between the majority-Shiite population and the Sunni ruling family, prompted Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone to voice concern about next months Grand Prix which opens the new Formula One season..... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/thousands-seek-regime-change- in-bahrain.html

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In Pakistan, US has already brought that democracy which they are now trying to bring in these Muslim lands. This is the re-shaping of the Middle East and redrawing of the maps to create regional instability for the greater Israel project! Pakistan and the Saudi Arabia are the last two frontiers US want to attack. Softening up of these lands is already in progress.

Political / Economic Axis:

People Party is now disintegrating on all axes. Bitter internal rivalries, power feuds, corruption charges and party disputes are tearing the ruling part apart. From the PM to the ministers to the party leaders it is a free for all now. -------------------------------------------------------------Fauzia Wahab quits PPP post -------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, Feb 19: The spokeswoman for the Pakistan Peoples Party resigned on Saturday days after backing the claims of diplomatic immunity by a US gunman who killed two men in Lahore last month.Pakistans ties with the United States have been strained since police arrested Raymond Davis, who confessed to killing the men in self-defence on Jan 27... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/fauzia-wahab-quits-ppp-post.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Loyalists open fire on Qureshi ---------------------------------------------------------------By Amir Wasim ISLAMABAD, Feb 13: Former foreign affairs minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has no future in Pakistan Peoples Party, Information Secretary of the PPP Fauzia Wahab declared here on Sunday.Serious disciplinary action will be taken against him (Mr Qureshi) for violating the party discipline and humiliating its leadership, Ms Wahab said while talking to Dawn... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/loyalists-open-fire-on-qureshi.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------FIA issues notice to PMs son in Haj case ---------------------------------------------------------------By Syed Irfan Raza ISLAMABAD, Feb 14: The Federal Investigation Agency issued a notice on Monday to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilanis son, Abdul Qadir Gilani, asking him to record his statement before an FIA team investigating the Haj scam.After the issuance of the notice, the head of the investigation team and FIA Director, Hussain Asghar, has been removed from the panel... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/15/fia-issues-notice-to-pms-son-in-haj-case.html

Last week, we had given the following assessment of the political and economic mess: The last rites of this most corrupt and incompetent PPP regime are approaching closer. Zardari is in a panic mode, desperate to do damage control as things continue to fall apart around him. The only reason he is still surviving is that US have not found an alternate stooge in his place and Pakistans army is a patriotic force representing the federation and hence cannot be trusted by the US to do what the Egyptian army did, hence US continues to support this crumbling government. By implicating Musharraf in BBs murder, Zardari is also trying to prove that the army which actually killed Benazir. Musharraf is reaping what he sowed but army would not appreciate if the institution is also dragged into the controversy In panic, the PPP regime is opening battle fronts with all and sundry, even the former President Musharraf. PML(N) is already on a war path. With infighting at its peak and US upset with the PPP regime and all opposition parties also gunning for the government, this is a wide front which Mr. Zardari has opened for himself. The higher judiciary is also making life hell for the PPP regime. In desperate attempts to regain allies, PPP reaches out to MQM and JUI(F), both master crooks upping their price beyond the capacity of Mr. 10%. -------------------------------------------------------------FIA told to produce Musharraf on March 5 -------------------------------------------------------------By Mudassir Raja RAWALPINDI, Feb 19: An anti-terrorism court reissued on Saturday warrants for Gen (retd) Pervez Musharrafs arrest in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case and ordered the FIA to produce him before the court on March 5.ATC-III Judge Rana Nisar Ahmed reissued the warrants after investigators informed the court that they had gone to the Islamabad residence of the former president to serve the warrants in compliance with its Feb 12 order but were told that he was now living in London... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/fia-told-to-produce-musharraf-on-march-5.html

--------------------------------------------------------------PML-N, PPP on collision course, yet again ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter ISLAMABAD, Feb 19: The Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

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are heading for a confrontation as the PML-N is determined to expel the PPP from the Punjab coalition government after Feb 23 the deadline set by the party http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/pml-n-ppp-on-collision-course-yet-again.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Patch-up at Nine Zero; Mirza in PPP team ---------------------------------------------------------------By Azfar-ul-Ashfaque KARACHI, Feb 18: In what is being described here as an attempt to firm up its alliance with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement before the expiry of a PML-N deadline, a high-level delegation of the PPP, comprising both hawks and doves, paid a visit to the MQM headquarters on Friday and reiterated its pledge to take their censorious ally along for strengthening the country and democracy.Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ibad accompanied the delegation. Interior Minister Rehman Malik and Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah also took along Home Minister Dr Zulfikar Mirza, whose vitriolic attacks on the MQM had created a political crisis. Many were caught by surprise when they saw Dr Mirza at Nine Zero... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/patch-up-at-nine-zero-mirza-in-ppp-team.html Meanwhile, corruption and massive financial mismanagement remains the business of the day. Every passing day cause millions of rupees loss to national exchequer in embezzlement and financial corruption. Supreme Court is fuming! ---------------------------------------------------------------Non-compliance of orders angers SC ---------------------------------------------------------------By Nasir Iqbal ISLAMABAD, Feb 15: The Supreme Court was annoyed when it was informed on Tuesday that instead of implementing its order to terminate 15 retired officers reappointed on contract, the prime minister had sent the matter to the law ministry for legal opinion. Is the government confronting us, asked Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, who heads a seven-judge bench hearing a case relating to alleged mismanagement in last years Haj affairs.... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/non-compliance-of-orders-angers-sc.html

---------------------------------------------------------------SBP submits report in SC: Rs215bn loan cases pending in courts ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, Feb 14: The State Bank submitted to the Supreme Court on Monday a report saying that 56,336 cases of recoverable loans totalling Rs215 billion till December 2009 were pending in various courts.Syed Iqbal Haider, the counsel for the SBP, presented the fivevolume report before a four-judge bench comprising Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Justice Muhammad Sair Ali, Justice Ghulam Rabbani and Justice Khalilur Rehman Ramday... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/15/sbp-submits-report-in-sc-rs215bn-loan-cases-pending-incourts.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------Govt has no funds for railways, NA body told ---------------------------------------------------------------By Khawar Ghumman ISLAMABAD, Feb 15: Pakistan Railways has turned into a shambles because there are no funds available even to repair its out of order locomotives.A meeting organised by the National Assembly Standing Committee on Railways to discuss affairs of the ever-sinking national organisation was informed on Tuesday that the government had released only Rs2.1 billion so far against Rs25.1 billion allocated to it for the current financial year.... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/govt-has-no-funds-for-railways-na-body-told.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Funds allocated for poverty reduction schemes not utilised ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter ISLAMABAD, Feb 15: Budgetary allocations for most of the projects in economic and social sectors designed to reduce poverty were not utilised during the last financial year. Alarmingly 11 sectors (out of 15) have recorded under-utilisation of budgetary allocations, said an annual report of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers of the ministry of finance...... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/funds-allocated-for-poverty-reduction-schemes-notutilised.html As we have said, the only reason this regime is surviving is that army has not made up its mind to replace it yet. Also, the US has no option but to support this regime as army is more defiant and patriotic. But Mr. Zardari is losing the grips on the situation and his destiny now is in the hands of US or the GHQ and not in his own. This is a desperate state for him but while he is still there, he is not missing any opportunity to mint some more cash if he can. We have a feeling his end would be very violent and perhaps very soon too! Now we move on to internal security issues. It is curious to note that since the arrest of Davis, drone strikes in Pakistan have stopped. The equipment found from his car included homing devices used for drone strikes. There is a genuine suspicion within Pakistani security establishment that Davis is actually part of a larger spying and sabotage network run by the CIA in Pakistan, hence he is being treated as a high value prisoner not simply a murder accused for two Pakistanis. Davis is not even his real name and there is a possibility that he may even be an Israeli Mossad agent. BrassTacks have done multiple interviews on international media on Davis issue and its implication on Pakistans internal security issues and these also shed light on the thinking in Pakistans national security establishment. Links of Davis with violent TTP are also established, giving a weird and sinister twist to his operations in Pakistan. BrassTacks interview to Iranians Press TV http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QwcGdrEMvQ BrassTacks interview to Watan Radio: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhdekmlextY

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On the axis of insurgency and terrorism, TTP and BLA continue their war against the State. ---------------------------------------------------------------Militants gun down two spies in public ---------------------------------------------------------------MIRAMSHAH, Feb 15: Militants publicly gunned down two people, among them an Afghan national, in North Waziristan on Tuesday on charges of spying for the US, sources said.Masked men brought the alleged spies to New Adda in Datakhel and shot them dead in front of a crowd..... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/militants-gun-down-two-spies-in-public.html

---------------------------------------------------------------TTP man held from hospital ---------------------------------------------------------------By S. Raza HassanKARACHI, Feb 15: A suspected member of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was picked up by law-enforcement personnel from a private hospital here on Tuesday. Four other suspects were arrested from outside the hospital.The raid on the hospital in North Nazimabad was carried out by personnel of a secret agency with the assistance of police who cordoned off the area...... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/16/ttp-man-held-from-hospital.html --------------------------------------------------------------Kurram deal Haqqanis Afghan insurance policy ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter ISLAMABAD, Feb 18: No doubt, the Kurram peace deal, which has eased tension in the valley and ended the four-year blockade of the main Thall-Parachinar road and caused jubilation among tribesmen, but it is yet to be seen how long the pact holds ground and helps to maintain normalcy in the region. It is an open secret that the Haqqani group, one of the outfits on the most wanted list of the US government, brokered the deal between sectarian factions. Commander Jalaluddin Haqqanis younger brothers Ibrahim and Khalil played a key role in brokering the agreement... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/kurram-deal-haqqanis-afghan-insurance-policy.html -------------------------------------------------------------Taliban claim they shot dead Col Imam -------------------------------------------------------------PESHAWAR, Feb 19: The Pakistani Taliban claimed on Saturday they had shot dead a retired intelligence official who once mentored their Afghan brethren and sided with the US against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.The claim contradicted Pakistani governments assertions last month that Sultan Amir Tarar died of a heart attack while being held captive by militants in northwest part of the country. We have killed him. We shot him, Taliban

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spokesman Ahsanullah Ahsan told AP via phone from an undisclosed location... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/20/taliban-claim-they-shot-dead-col-imam.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Gas pipeline blast forces closure of Uch power plant ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Correspondent QUETTA, Feb 13: The 586MW Uch power plant stopped generation on Sunday morning after a major pipeline supplying gas to it was blown up near Dera Murad Jamali, sources said. The explosion took place in the Rabi canal area, they said... http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/14/gas-pipeline-blast-forces-closure-of-uch-power-plant.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Provinces help being sought for security of oil and gas installations ---------------------------------------------------------------By Khaleeq Kiani ISLAMABAD, Feb 18: The federal government has decided to involve provincial police and other law-enforcement agencies in providing security to oil and gas fields and pipelines to curb the growing number of sabotage attacks on important installations.A senior government official told Dawn on Friday that the http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/provinces-help-being-sought-for-security-of-oil-and-gasinstallations.html

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Local 3.1 Karachi and Sindh

Analysis: Karachi remains seriously in trouble this week and the threat level remain at 3.

3.2

Islamabad / Rawalpindi

Analysis Threat level due to violence is now lower in twin cities now at 2.

3.3

Lahore / Punjab

Analysis Threat levels remain in Lahore and Punjab remains at level 2.

3.4

Peshawar / NWFP / Baluchistan / Northern Areas and AJK

Analysis: This week in Peshawar, Threat levels are at 3. Threat levels in other NWFP cities and towns like Kohat, Dera Ismail, Mardan, would be 3 for the next week also. Swat, Dir and Malakand region as well as Buner is level 3. Threat levels are at level 3 in Quetta, level 3 in tribal and interior regions. Kashmir is ok for now. Northern regions of Gilgit / Sakardu are tense but better at 3.

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3.5

Current Terrorism / Security Threat Levels.

City / Region Islamabad Karachi Lahore Punjab NWFP* Peshawar Swat, Buner, Malakand Quetta Central Baluchistan / Kohlu / Dera Bugti etc. Upper / Rural Sindh Gilgit / Sakardu Kashmir Threat Level Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 4 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 2

*(Tribal areas, Parachinar, Miranshah and regions close to Afghan border)

4.1

Threat Level Reference

Threat Level 1

No threat at all to expats, families and interests, except isolated possibilities of muggings, petty thefts and stealing. No special precaution is required in traveling. Threat Level 2

General Law and order problem in parts of the country. Basic precaution required in traveling outstation. Caution and observation required against particular threats building up. No particular threat to families.

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Threat Level 3

Serious law and order problems building up in some parts of the country. Travel restrictions may be imposed. Families to remain within Islamabad or within homes unless extremely necessary to travel. Evacuation plans may be made ready. Still livable but high degree of caution is required all the time.

Threat Level 4

Threat of Limited war, social chaos and collapse of civil administration happening or expected in certain parts of the country. Complete travel ban to be imposed towards troubled regions. All staff, families and personal to remain restricted within Islamabad or indoors. Evacuation of families and extra staff from the troubled regions can begin; keeping only a rear guard team may be kept to look after interests.

Threat Level 5

Full blown war, civil war, total collapse of law and order, invasion/occupation of the country. The rearguard team to get into their embassy and try to get out of the country.

4.2

Map of Pakistan

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