Josh Tarasoff Amazon
Josh Tarasoff Amazon
ESG Investing in Graham and Doddsville 20 by Dan Hanson, Jarislowsky Fraser USA
Three Common Misconceptions About Markets 32 Tim Koller, Bin Jiang, and Rishi Raj, McKinsey & Company
(or Why Earnings Smoothing, Guidance, and Concern About Meeting
Consensus Estimates Are Likely to be Counterproductive)
How to Create Value Without Earnings: The Case of Amazon 39 Josh Tarasoff, Greenlea Lane Capital, and John McCormack
Responsible Investors: Who They Are, What They Want 44 Steve Lydenberg, Domini Social Investments LLC
Corporate Disclosure of Material Information: 50 Jean Rogers, Sustainability Accounting Standards Board,
The Evolution—and the Need to Evolve Again and Robert Herz, Financial Accounting Standards Board
New Venture: A New Model for Clean Energy Innovation 56 Tiffany Clay, TPG
Integrating Sustainability Into Capital Markets: 62 Andrew Park and Curtis Ravenel, Bloomberg LP
Bloomberg LP And ESG’s Quantitative Legitimacy
Preserving Value through Adaptation to Climate Change 76 Jason West and Robert Bianchi, Griffith University
Loyalty-Shares: Rewarding Long-term Investors 86 Patrick Bolton, Columbia University, and Frédéric Samama,
SWF Research Initiative and Amundi
How to Create Value Without Earnings:
The Case of Amazon
[Link]’s stock price recently hit a record of management has clearly and consistently communicated the
B
A $300 per share, giving the company a market
capitalization of approximately $140 billion.1 But
it was just a few months ago that a popular finan-
company’s goal of maximizing its long-run intrinsic value,
regardless of the effects on GAAP metrics. Perhaps the most
succinct description of this approach came from Jeff Bezos
cial journalist expressed his amazement at the disjunction in his first letter to Amazon’s public shareholders, in 1997:
between the company’s extraordinary share-price perfor-
mance and its reported earnings and profit margins: When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance
of our GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of
Amazon kept up its streak of being awesome this afternoon by future cash flows, we’ ll take the cash flows.
announcing a 45 percent year-on-year decline in profits measuring
Q4 2012 against Q4 2011. Not because sales went down, mind In the 2004 shareholder letter, Bezos explains the distinc-
you. They’re up. Revenue is up. The company’s razor-thin profit tion between earnings and cash flow:
margins just got even thinner, and in total the company lost $39
million in 2012. The company’s shares are down a bit today, but the Why not focus first and foremost, as many do, on earnings,
company’s stock is taking a much less catastrophic plunge ……That’s earnings per share or earnings growth? The simple answer is that
because Amazon, as best I can tell, is a charitable organization earnings don’t directly translate into cash flows, and shares are
being run by elements of the investment community for the benefit worth only the present value of their future cash flows, not the
of consumers. The shareholders put up the equity, and instead of present value of their future earnings.
owning a claim on a steady stream of fat profits, they get a claim on
a mighty engine of consumer surplus. Amazon sells things to people In the 2012 shareholder letter, Bezos emphasizes the
at prices that seem impossible because it actually is impossible to importance of taking a long-term perspective on intrinsic value:
make money that way. And the competitive pressure of needing to
square off against Amazon cuts profit margins at other companies, As I write this, our recent stock performance has been
thus benefiting people who don’t even buy anything from Amazon. positive, but we constantly remind ourselves of an important
point – as I frequently quote famed investor Benjamin Graham
In our view, this commentary reflects the confusion in our employee all-hands meetings – “In the short run, the
that often results from equating GAAP accounting metrics, market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing
especially earnings per share, with financial success. There is machine.” We don’t celebrate a 10% increase in the stock price
no simple, linear relationship between GAAP earnings and like we celebrate excellent customer experience. We aren’t 10%
intrinsic value. A big part of the reason that GAAP earnings smarter when that happens and conversely aren’t 10% dumber
attract the attention of commentators is simply convenience: when the stock goes the other way. We want to be weighed, and
GAAP is the de facto reporting standard, so it’s easy to refer- we’re always working to build a heavier company.
ence and talk about. To be sure, a standardized set of metrics,
like earnings, provides a useful starting point for analysis. But In downplaying GAAP earnings and short-term stock
precisely because the measure we call earnings is standardized price movements, Amazon’s approach is entirely consistent
across so many different kinds of companies and business with standard finance theory, as well as the fundamen-
models, adjustments to earnings are often necessary to get at tal valuation analysis and classic value investing approach
economic reality. Though such adjustments require subjec- advocated by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. The most
tive judgment, they nonetheless can be central to analysis of famous practitioner of this approach, Warren Buffett, defines
a company’s operating performance and valuation. intrinsic value (in his “Owner’s Manual” for Berkshire Hatha-
Since Amazon’s beginning as a public company, its way shareholders) as “the discounted value of the cash that
1. Amazon stock reached $300 per share for the first time on July 11, 2013.
2. [Link]
3. See [Link] 5. We have not subtracted the revenue associated with growth initiatives, because we
[Link] believe that this “growth revenue” comprises a relatively small proportion of overall gross
4. We estimate gross revenue by estimating gross merchandise value (GMV) for the revenue. Recall that AWS is excluded from gross revenue in the first place, and consider
3P business, adding it to reported “product sales” (for which Amazon is merchant of that revenue from China, Italy, Spain, and France in aggregate comprised about 5% of
record), and subtracting shipping revenue (which is included in the prior amounts). GMV Amazon’s reported revenue in 2012). Subtracting growth revenue would increase the
is estimated by first calculating the fees earned from marketplace sellers, which are ap- normalized operating margin as a percentage of gross revenue.
proximately equal to reported “services revenue” less reported “other revenue,” which for 6. Thomson Reuters Streetevents edited transcript of Amazon’s second quarter 2013
the period contemplated amounted to $8 billion. This sum is divided by our estimate of earnings conference call.
Amazon’s take rate (third-party fees as a percentage of GMV) of 15%, to arrive at a GMV 7. We estimate AWS net fixed assets by assuming that AWS comprises half of Ama-
of $53 billion. Adding this $53 billion to Amazon’s reported product sales of $56 billion zon’s “technology infrastructure” net fixed assets. Technology infrastructure net fixed as-
yields a total of $109 billion. From this we subtract shipping revenue of $3 billion, arriv- sets were reported until 2011, when they comprised over 40% of total net fixed assets.
ing at $105 billion of “gross revenue” (rounding down), which reflects the value of all This implies that in 2011, AWS-related assets comprised over 20% of total net fixed
goods sold by or through Amazon. Note that gross revenue excludes non-retail revenue, assets. To update the figures, we apply 20% to the most recent total net fixed assets
such as advertising and AWS. figure of $8.8 billion, yielding AWS net fixed assets of $1.7 billion.
Valuation
To see how ROIC drives Amazon’s valuation, consider the Josh Tarasoff is General Partner of Greenlea Lane Capital in New
following. For each $1 billion Amazon invests at a 70% York.
ROIC, $700 million of annual NOPAT is produced ($1 John McCormack is Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Corpo-
billion x 70%). The value of this perpetuity is equal to the rate Finance.
annual cash flow divided by the cost of capital (WACC).
Assuming a WACC of 10%, we can estimate that the $700
million of annual NOPAT would be worth $7 billion ($700 The material presented herein does not represent a recommendation
million/10%). To simplify, we can posit a crude rule of to buy or sell any security. Likewise, the discussion is not designed to
thumb: the value created by each dollar added to a compa- be applicable to the specific circumstances of any particular reader,
and you should conduct your own research and consult with your
ny’s invested capital base can be estimated by multiplying by
own advisers before making any investment decisions based on
the ratio of ROIC to WACC. In Amazon’s case, $1 added the material presented herein. As of the publication date of this
to its capital base is thus estimated to create $7 ($1 * 70% material, Greenlea Lane Capital, through its affiliated entities
ROIC/10% WACC) of value. and client accounts, currently maintains a long position in shares
We are now in position to try and make sense of of [Link] Inc. (“Amazon”) and stands to benefit from an
Amazon’s valuation. The company sports a market cap of increase in the price of Amazon shares. Following the publication of
about $140 billion, in spite of reporting negative $100 million this article, the authors intend to continue transacting in Amazon
of GAAP net income over the 12 months through June 30, shares, and may be long, short, or neutral with respect to Amazon
2013. However, we now know that in Amazon’s case, GAAP shares and any related securities or derivatives. As such, no continu-
earnings is a meaningless metric for valuation purposes, ing statement is being made that the analysis contained herein is still
because it is depressed by high-ROIC, value-creating growth supported by the authors as of any date following the date of initial
publication. The authors have obtained the information contained
investments. And because higher levels of such investments
herein from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. However,
mean lower earnings, focusing solely on the low earnings such information is presented “as is,” without warranty of any kind,
figures gets the economic reality backward. whether express or implied. The authors make no representation,
A better way to frame Amazon’s valuation is to look at express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness
the multiple of normalized NOPAT—35X ($140 billion/$4 of any such information. All expressions of opinion are subject to
billion). While this is far from a typical multiple (let alone change without notice, and the authors will not undertake to update
a bargain multiple) for a stock, this is accounted for by this material or any information contained herein.
8. Net working capital is defined as inventory plus accounts receivable plus deferred
tax assets less accounts payable less accrued expenses. Because of the efficiency of the
online retail model, Amazon generally receives funds from customers prior to paying
suppliers, resulting in negative working capital
Mary Barth Carl Ferenbach Donald Lessard Joel M. Stern Associate Editor
Stanford University Berkshire Partners Massachusetts Institute of Stern Stewart & Co. John L. McCormack
Technology
Amar Bhidé Kenneth French G. Bennett Stewart Design and Production
Tufts University Dartmouth College Robert Merton EVA Dimensions Mary McBride
Massachusetts Institute of
Michael Bradley Stuart L. Gillan Technology René Stulz
Duke University University of Georgia The Ohio State University
Stewart Myers
Richard Brealey Richard Greco Massachusetts Institute of Alex Triantis
London Business School Filangieri Capital Partners Technology University of Maryland
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