Module 4 Estimating Wind Energy
Production
Estimating
Wind Energy
Production
The Weibull
Distribution
• Weibull distribution helps describe the variation
of wind speeds.
• Wind is measured with an anemometer and the
mean wind speed is recorded every 10 minutes.
This data can be sorted into wind speed classes of
1 m/s each.
• The energy contained in the wind at a certain site
may then be expressed by the Weibull
distribution.
• K is the Weibull form parameter. It specifies
the shape of a Weibull distribution and takes
on a value of between 1 and 3. A small value
for k signifies very variable winds, while
constant winds are characterized by a larger
k. The standard is 2.
Average Water Bottle
Fallacy
Look at the smallest and largest bottle
in the picture.
• The small one is 0.24 m tall, the
large is 0.76 m tall. How tall is the
average bottle?
Knowing the average wind speed does
not tell you the average power of
wind.
Braking Wind & Betz’ Law
• The more kinetic energy a wind
turbine pulls out of the wind, the
more the wind will be slowed
down as it leaves the turbine.
• An ideal wind turbine would slow
down the wind by 2/3 of its
original speed.
• Betz' law says that you can only
convert less than 16/27 (or 59%)
of the kinetic energy in the wind
to mechanical energy using a wind
turbine.
Calculating the Power
Density of Wind
• A wind turbine obtains its power input by converting
the force of the wind into a torque (turning force)
acting on the rotor blades. The amount of energy
which the wind transfers to the rotor depends on the
density of the air, the rotor area, and the wind speed.
• To calculate the power density of wind: Multiply
the power of each wind speed with the probability of
each wind speed from the Weibull graph.
• The area under the blue curve tells us how much of the
wind power we can theoretically convert to mechanical
power. (According to Betz’ Law this is 16/27 of the total
power in the wind).
• The total area under the red curve tells us how much
electrical power a certain wind turbine will produce at
this site.
• Cut-in speed is the wind speed needed for the turbine to begin producing electricity.
• Rated power is the “full power” rating of the turbine.
Wind Turbine Power • Rated output speed is the wind speed necessary for the turbine to reach its rated
Curve power.
• Cut-out speed is the wind speed that causes the turbine to shut itself down in order to
protect itself from high winds
The Power
Coefficient for
Wind
• The power coefficient tells
you how efficiently a turbine
converts the energy in the Power
Coefficient
wind to electricity.
• The mechanical efficiency of
the turbine is largest (in this
case 49 per cent) at a wind
speed around some 8 m/s
How to Use a Wind
Turbine Power
Calculator
• The calculator combines data from the
Weibull distribution with the wind
turbine power curve.
• For each tiny 0.1 meter interval of wind
speeds the calculator multiplies the
probability of that wind speed interval
with the value from the power curve.
• It takes the sum of all these
multiplications to get the mean (or
average) power output.
• If you multiply the power by 365.25 by
24 (the number of hours in a year) we get
the total energy output for an average
year.
Annual Energy
Forecasts
• Energy output varies almost with
the cube of the wind speed.
• By doubling average wind
speed (from 4.5 m/s to 9 m/s
the energy output increases
500%)
• The output of a wind turbine
depends on the turbine's size and
the wind's speed through the rotor.
• An average onshore wind turbine
with a capacity of 2.5–3 MW can
produce more than 6 million kWh in
a year – enough to supply 1,500
average EU households with
electricity.
