Bond Valuation Exercises
Bond Valuation Exercises
Sol:
n
Int i RV
Formula Bond Value = (1 + r )
i =1
i
+
(1 + r ) n
From the above problem coupon rate is 9%, r is 11%, FV is 1000 and n is 20
years. Face value and Redemption value is same in this problem, because they
didn’t give any redemption value separately.
Therefore face value is 1000 and coupon rate is 9%, then interest is
Int = 1000 * 9% = 1000 * 9/100 = 90
20
90 1000
= (1 + 0.11)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.11) 20
First denominator looks Present value annuity factor, second one looks line
Present value factor.
Page 1 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Problem 2. A 5000 bond with a 10% coupon rate matures in 8 years and currently
sells at 97%, is this bond a desirable investment for an investor whose required
rate of return is 11%?
Sol:
Given values
Face value = 5000, Redeem value = 5000
Maturity n = 8 years Required rate of return = 11%
Coupon rate is = 10% Present selling value = ?
Bond Value = ? Interest = ?
8
500 5000
= +
i =1 (1 + 11 / 100) i (1 + 11 / 100) 8
8
500 5000
= (1 + 0.11)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.11) 8
= 4743
So, present selling value is higher than what the bond value.
Page 2 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Sol:
Given values, Face Value = 1000 Redeem Value = 1000
Coupon rate = 8% Maturity = 3years
Required rate of return = 10%
From the above problem need to find out bond value, if interest paid annually and
semi annually.
If interest is going to pay semi annually, then interest and required rate of
return will become half and maturity will become double.
Interest @ 8% on 1000 on 80, for semi annually it will become half that is
40
Required rate of return is 10%, for semi annually it will become half that
is 5%
Maturity is 3years, for semi annually it will become double that is 6years
n
Int i RV
Formula Bond Value = (1 + r )
i =1
i
+
(1 + r ) n
6
40 1000
Now bond value for semi annually = (1 + 0.05)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.05) 6
= 40 * PVAF 5%,, 6 y
+ 1000 * PVF 5%,6 y
= 80 * PVAF 10 %,, 3 y
+ 1000 *
PVF 10 %,3 y
Page 3 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Yield to Maturity
Yield Curve – Yield curve depicts the relationship between time to maturity and
yields for a particular category of bonds at a particular point of time.
n
Int i RV
Formula for Yield to Maturity (YTM) B0 = (1 + YTM )
i =1
i
+
(1 + YTM ) n
Int
Current Yield – Formula for Current Yield =
B 0
B 0
= Value of the bond at present Int = Interest
Problem 1: A bond of 10,000 bearing coupon rate 12% and redeemable in 8years
at par is being traded at 10,600 find out current yield and Yield to maturity?
Now need to find out Yield to maturity – “yield to maturity need to calculate
on trail and error basis. Checking of YTM is always, if Bond value at present
higher than the face value then need to check YTM’s are lesser than the
Coupon rate and Bond value at present lesser than the face value then need
to check YTM’s are higher than the Coupon rate”
In this problem Bond Value at present is 10,600 and Face value is 10,000
Page 4 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
So, Bond value is higher than the Face value, now we need to check YTM’s are
lesser than coupon rate.
8
1200 10000
YTM at 11% = (1 + 0.11)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.11) 8
At 11% value is lesser than the Bond value at present, so we need to check another
YTM that is 10%
8
1200 10000
YTM at 10% = (1 + 0.10)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.10) 8
At 10% value is higher than the Bond value at present means YTM is between
10% and 11%.
MainYtmvalue − B0
YTM = Main YTM% +
Mainytmvalue − Anotherytmvalue
Here we are checking between 10% and 11%, now main YTM is 10% and another
YTM is 11%
11,072 −10,600
YTM = 10% + = 10% + 0.85 = 10.85%
11,072 − 10,515
Page 5 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
(RV − B )
Int + 0
n
1. Approximate YTM =
(RV + B ) 0
1200 +
(10,000 − 10,600 )
Approximate YTM = 8
(10,000 + 10,600 )
2
= 10.92%
Int +
(RV − B ) 0
2. Approximate YTM = n
0.4 * RV + 0.6 * B0
Problem2:
Market price is 107, Maturity date 31-12-12,
Face Value is 100, Callable on 01-01-09
Callable Value is 105, Date of Purchase on 01-01-07
Coupon rate is 12% Interest payable annual
Calculate current yield and Yield to Call?
Sol:
Int
Current Yield =
Currentpri ceB0
n
Int i RV
Yield to Call (YTC) = (1 + YTC )
i =1
i
+
(1 + YTC ) n
Page 6 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
“Present Bond value, i.e. Market price is higher than the Face Value, means need
to check lesser than Coupon rate”
2
12 105
YTC at 11% = (1 + 0.11)
i =1
i
+
(1 + 0.11) 2
= 12 * 1.713 + 105 * 0.812
= 105.82
MainYtcvalue − B0
YTC = Main YTC% +
Mainytcvalue − Anotherytcvalue
107.57 − 107
= 10% + = 10.33%.
107.57 − 105.82
(RV − B0 )
Int +
Short Cut Method – YTC = n
0.4 * RV + 0.6 * B0
12 +
(105 − 107 )
= 2
0.4 *105 + 0.6 *107
= 10.35%.
Page 7 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
EQUITY VALUATION
a. Valuation Based on One-year Holding Period: If an investor intends to buy
a share now and to keep it for a period of one year after which he expects to sell
it for a price, the valuation of share depends on the discounted value of expected
price after one year.
D1 P1
The value of the share is P 0 = +
(1 + k e )1
(1 + k e )1
P 0 = Present Value D 1 = Expected Dividend
P 1 = Expected Price k e = Required rate of return
Problem1: A dividend of Rs.3 and selling price of Rs. 20 is expected after 1 year.
Find the value of the share today, assuming a required rate of return of 20%?
D1 P1
Sol: The value of the share is P 0 = +
(1 + k e )1 (1 + k e )1
3 20
P0 = +
(1 + 20%) 1
(1 + 20% )1
3 20
= +
(1 + 0.20) 1
(1 + 0.20)1
= 2.50 + 16.67 = 19.17
D1 D (1 + g )
The value of the share is P 0 = = 0
(k e − g ) (k e − g )
D1
The above equation can be write as k e = +g
P0
Page 8 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Problem2: XYZ Ltd has just paid its annual dividend of Rs. 3 per shares having
face value of Rs. 10. The dividend rate is expected to grow at the rate of 8% p.a
forever. The company belongs to a risk group for which the equity capitalization
rate of 14% is found to be consistent. What is the intrinsic value of the share?
D0 (1 + g )
The value of the share is P 0 =
(k e − g )
3.24
= = 54.
(0.06)
Problem3: Equity shares of Badarpur Gas Ltd. are currently selling at Rs 60. The
company is expected to pay dividend of Rs 3 after 1 year, with a growth rate of
8%. Find out the implied required rate of return of the equity investors.
3
= + 0.08
60
= 13%
Zero growth rate and the constant growth rate assumptions of dividend patterns
are extreme assumptions. In a practical situation, the dividend from a company
may show one growth rate for few years, fallowed by another growth rate for next
few years and then yet another growth rate for next few years, and so on.
Page 9 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Problem4: Air Mail Ltd has just paid a dividend of Rs 2 per share. In view of the
rapid growth of the company, the dividend is expected to grow at 20% p.a. for
next 3 years. After that the growth process will slow down and the earnings are
expected to grow only at 7% p.a. infinitely. In view of the risk involved in the
investment, a return of 22% is considered appropriate. Find out the price an
investor should be ready to pay for the shares.
In the given situation the Present values (PV) of Dividend for first 3years is
D4 D (1 + g 2 )
Value of the share at the end of year 3, P 3 = = 3
ke − g 2 ke − g 2
Page 10 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
In the given situation the Present values (PV) of Dividend for first 5years is
D6
Value of the share at the end of year 5, P 5 = =
ke − g 2
1.76(1 + 0.06)
= = 46.64
0.10 − 0.06
Page 11 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Unit – II
Return
Realized Return or Historical Return
Expected Return or Probable Return
Realized Return
• Arithmetic Return (or) Average Return
• Geometric Return
• Harmonic Return
Exercise
Exercise: Calculate the AR, GR and HR of the following returns and show that
AR > GR > HR.
32, 35, 36, 37, 39, 41 and 43
1 (32+35+36+37+39+41+43) 263
AR is ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑅𝑖 = = = 37.57
𝑛 7 7
𝑛
GR is √𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠
𝑛
= √𝑅1 ∗ 𝑅2 ∗ 𝑅3 ∗ … ∗ 𝑅𝑛 = (x * x * …*x ) ^1/n
1 2 n
7
= √32 ∗ 35 ∗ 36 ∗ 37 ∗ 39 ∗ 41 ∗ 43
7
= √102574442880
= 37.40
𝑛
H.R = 1
∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
7 7
H.R = 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 =
+ + + + + + 0.0312+0.0285+0.0277+0.0270+0.0256+0.0243+0.0232
32 35 36 37 39 41 43
7
= 0.1875 = 37.31
Page 12 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Expected Return
Exercise: An investor evaluating a stock and expecting the following returns from
the stock from coming year.
Situation Probability Return (%)
1 0.20 8
2 0.15 10
3 0.30 15
4 0.35 5
Calculate the expected return.
Solution:
Expected return 𝑅̅ = ∑𝑛𝑖−1 𝑃𝑖 𝑅𝑖
Situation Probability Return (%) 𝑃𝑖 𝑅𝑖
1 0.20 8 1.6
2 0.15 10 1.5
3 0.30 15 4.5
4 0.35 5 1.75
9.35
Page 13 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Return concepts –
• Absolute return
• Annualized return
• Average Return
• Actual Return
Example: An investor observed following prices for the period of 3 years and
invested in 100 stocks in the beginning of year. Calculate the absolute return,
annualized return, average return and actual return. Prices (Rs) at the end of year
is as follows for the period of 3 years respectively, 200, 150, 225.
Solution:
Absolute return
Starting of the price is Rs. 200
Ending of the price is Rs. 225
𝐸𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 −𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 + 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠
Absolute return = * 100
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
225 − 200 + 0
= * 100 = 12.5 %
200
Page 14 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Actual return
Page 15 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Range
Problem: The following are the returns of a firm for the last 12 months
Months:1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Returns :80 82 82 84 84 86 86 88 88 90 90 92
(Returns in %)
Solution:
Highest return H = 92%
Lowest return L = 80%
Range = H – L = 92 – 80 = 12
𝐻− 𝐿
Coefficient of Range =
𝐻+ 𝐿
= 12 / 172 = 0.0697
Page 16 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
MAD
“The average value of these deviations from the average return (A.R) is called
the mean the mean absolute deviation (MAD)”
Hint: Ignore the sign of the deviation by taking absolute value
1
For population MAD = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 І𝑅 − 𝜇 І
𝑁
1
For sample MAD = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 І𝑅 − 𝑅̅ І
𝑛
𝑀𝐴𝐷
For coefficient of MAD =
𝑅̅
Problem: Calculate the mean absolute deviation and its coefficient from
following data and compare the values.
Year Stock A Returns (%) Stock B Returns (%)
2006 23 36
2007 41 39
2008 29 36
2009 53 31
2010 38 47
Solution:
Mean
Year Stock A I R – 𝑅̅ I Stock B IR – 𝑅̅I
2006 23 23-36.8 = 13.8 36 36 – 37.8 = 1.8
2007 41 41-36.8 = 4.2 39 39-37.8 = 1.2
2008 29 29-36.8 = 7.8 36 36-37.8 = 1.8
2009 53 53-36.8 = 16.2 31 31-37.8= 6.8
2010 38 38-36.8 = 1.2 47 47-37.8 = 9.2
184 43.2 189 20.8
Page 17 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Calculate the semi variance and semi deviation from following data and compare
the values.
Year Stock A Returns (%) Stock B Returns (%)
2006 23 36
2007 41 39
2008 29 36
2009 53 31
2010 38 47
Solution
Year Stock A 𝑅 – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
2006 23 23-36.8 = -13.8 190.44
2007 41 41-36.8 = 4.2
2008 29 29-36.8 = -7.8 60.84
2009 53 53-36.8 = 16.2
2010 38 38-36.8 = 1.2
184 251.28
Stock A mean = 184 / 5 = 36.8
1 251.28
Semi variance = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = = 125.64
𝑛 2
1
Semi deviation = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √125.64 = 11.20
𝑛
Stock B
Year Stock B R – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
2006 36 36 – 37.8 = -1.8 3.24
2007 39 39-37.8 = 1.2
2008 36 36-37.8 = -1.8 3.24
2009 31 31-37.8= -6.8 46.24
2010 47 47-37.8 = 9.2
189 52.72
Stock B mean = 189 / 5 = 37.8
1 52.72
Semi variance = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = = 17.573
𝑛 3
1
Semi deviation = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √17.573 = 4.192
𝑛
𝑆𝑒𝑚𝑖 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
coefficient of Semi Deviation =
𝑅̅
Page 18 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
1
Standard deviation = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √133.2 = 11.541
𝑛−1
Stock B
Year Stock B R – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
2006 36 36 – 37.8 = -1.8 3.24
2007 39 39-37.8 = 1.2 1.44
2008 36 36-37.8 = -1.8 3.24
2009 31 31-37.8= -6.8 46.24
2010 47 47-37.8 = 9.2 84.64
189 138.8
Stock B mean = 189 / 5 = 37.8
1 138.8
Variance = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = = 34.7
𝑛−1 4
1
Standard deviation s = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √34.7 = 5.89
𝑛−1
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
coefficient of Standard Deviation =
𝑅̅
Page 19 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
1 1023.5
Standard deviation s = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √ = √204.7 = 14.30
𝑛−1 6−1
Stock Y
Year Stock Y 𝑅 – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
1 10 -2.5 6.25
2 15 2.5 6.25
3 24 11.5 132.25
4 20 7.5 56.25
5 18 5.5 30.25
6 -12 -24.5 600.25
Total 75 831.5
1 𝑛 75
Average return = ∑𝑖=1 𝑅𝑖 = = 12.5%
𝑛 6
1 831.5
Standard deviation s = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √ = √166.3 = 12.89
𝑛−1 6−1
Page 20 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Stock Z
Year Stock Z 𝑅 – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
1 15 -0.5 0.25
2 20 4.5 20.25
3 18 2.5 6.25
4 15 -0.5 0.25
5 15 -0.5 0.25
6 10 -5.5 30.25
Total 93 57.5
1 𝑛 93
Average return = ∑𝑖=1 𝑅𝑖 = = 15.5%
𝑛 6
1 57.5
Standard deviation s = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √ = √11.5 = 3.39
𝑛−1 6−1
Market
Year Market % 𝑅 – 𝑅̅ (R – 𝑅̅ )2
1 12 -2 4
2 10 -4 16
3 25 11 121
4 16 2 4
5 8 -6 36
6 13 -1 1
Total 84 182
1 𝑛 84
Average return = ∑𝑖=1 𝑅𝑖 = = 14%
𝑛 6
1 182
Standard deviation s = √ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑖 − ̅̅̅
𝑅)2 = √ = √36.4 = 6.03
𝑛−1 6−1
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
coefficient of Standard Deviation =
𝑅̅
14.30 12.89 3.39
Stock X = ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
= 1.362, Stock Y = ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
= 1.032, Stock Z = ̅̅̅̅̅̅ = 0.218,
10.5 12.5 15.5
6.03
Market = ̅̅̅̅
= 0.431,
14
Descriptive Statistics
Particulars Return Risk (Standard Coefficient of Risk level
% Deviation) variation
Stock X 10.5 14.30 1.362 High
Stock Y 12.5 12.89 1.032 Moderate
Stock Z 15.5 3.39 0.218 Low
Market 14 6.03 0.431 Low
Page 21 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Expected Risk
Formula σ = √∑𝑛𝑖−1 𝑃𝑖 (𝑅𝑖 − 𝑅̅)2
Higher CV is riskier.
Page 22 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
∑𝑛 ̅̅̅̅̅ ̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑖=1(𝑅𝑠𝑖 − 𝑅𝑠) (𝑅𝑚𝑖 − 𝑅𝑚 ) 𝐶𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 & 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡
Formula β = 2 =
𝜎𝑚 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡
Share whose Beta factor is more than1 are considered as riskier than the
market, whose Beta is less than 1 are considered as less risky than the market
If Beta Value is Zero (Negative Beta) indicates negative relationship
between stock return and market return.
If Beta value, is One indicates stock return and market return are same
Relationship between σ and β: Both are used to measure of risk. However, both
measures are different. σ is measure of total risk, β is a relative index of market
risk or systematic risk.
Page 23 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Solution:
2
Estimation of 𝜎𝑚
Year Index Return Rm Deviation (Rm - 𝑅̅𝑚) (𝑅𝑚 – 𝑅̅𝑚)2
1996 218 - - -
1997 230 5.5 -0.1 0.00
1998 248 7.80 2.2 4.84
1999 250 0.80 -4.8 23.04
2000 282 12.8 7.2 51.84
2001 297 5.30 -0.3 0.09
2001 288 -3.00 -8.6 73.96
2003 290 0.70 -4.9 24.01
2004 320 10.3 4.7 22.09
2005 356 11.3 5.7 32.49
2006 371 4.20 -1.4 1.96
55.7 234
1 55.7
Market Average return 𝑅̅𝑚 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑅𝑚𝑖 = = 5.6%
𝑛 10
1 234
2
Market Variance 𝜎𝑚 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑅𝑚𝑖 − ̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑅𝑚)2 = = 26,
𝑛−1 9
2
SD of Market is √𝜎𝑚 = 𝜎𝑚 = √26 = 5.1
Page 24 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Example calculating 1997-year return, present value is 230, previous value is 218,
here no dividends
230 − 218
So, return of 1997 Rm is = = 5.5
218
∑𝑛 ̅ ̅
𝑖=1(Rmi − 𝑅 𝑚)∗ (Rsi − 𝑅 𝑠) 361
Covariance of Stock & Market = = = 36.1
𝑛 10
∑𝑛 ̅ ̅
𝑖=1(Rmi – 𝑅 𝑚)∗ (Rsi – 𝑅 𝑠) Covariance of stock and market
β= 𝑛 ̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑𝑖=1(𝑅𝑚𝑖 −𝑅𝑚) 2
=
Variance of market
36.1
= = 1.38
26
Page 25 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Regression Method
Exercise2: The fallowing historical rate of return information is provided for
Funky Software Co. and the stock market
33 54
Stock mean 𝑌̅ = = 5.5%, Market mean 𝑋̅ = = 9%
6 6
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋𝑌 − (∑ 𝑋) (∑ 𝑌) 6 ∗ 239 − 54 ∗33 1434 − 1782
Beta (Slope) β = 2 2 = =
𝑛 𝛴 𝑋 − (∑ 𝑋) 6 ∗ 896 − (54)2 5376 − 2916
−348
= = - 0.1414
2460
Page 26 of 51
Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Expected Beta
Calculate the beta factor for the fallowing investments
Solution:
“When the problem is in probability should not take a Number of
observations (n) to calculate values”
First need to calculate Deviation and variance of the Market
Probability rm P * rm r m - rm (r m - rm ) 2 P*(r m - rm ) 2
10 9 0.9 -5.7 32.49 3.25
20 12 2.4 -2.7 7.29 1.46
30 14 4.2 -0.7 0.49 0.15
40 18 7.2 3.3 10.89 4.36
rm =14.7 σ m =9.22
2
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Correlation
Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation Method
Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation Measures the degree of association
(relationship) between two variables x and y. For a set of n pairs of values of x
and y,
Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation, r, is given by
𝐶𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 (𝑥, 𝑦) 𝐶𝑜𝑣 (𝑥, 𝑦)
r= =
√𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑥∗ √𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑦 𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦
1
Covariance = CoV (x, y) = ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑥 − 𝑥̅ ) (𝑦 − 𝑦̅ )
𝑛
1
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑥− 𝑥̅ ) (𝑦− 𝑦
̅) 𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 𝑦 − (∑ 𝑥) (∑ 𝑦)
𝑛
We have r = 2 2
=
√∑( 𝑥 − 𝑥̅ ) √∑( 𝑦 − 𝑦̅ ) √𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 2 −(∑ 𝑥)2 √𝑛 ∑ 𝑦 2 −(∑ 𝑦)2
𝑛 𝑛
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Solution:
80 64
Mean of X = = 10%, Mean of Y = =8
8 8
𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 𝑦 − (∑ 𝑥) (∑ 𝑦)
Correlation = r =
√𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 2 −(∑ 𝑥)2 √𝑛 ∑ 𝑦 2 −(∑ 𝑦)2
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Problem1: The risk and return of the two securities are shown below
X Y
Expected Return 12% 20%
Risk 3% 7%
An investor plans to invest 80% of its available funds in security X and 20% in
Y. The correlation coefficient between the returns of the portfolio is +1. Find out
the risk and return of the portfolio of X and Y?
Solution:
The expected return of the portfolio is:
Investment Expected Return Proportion Weighted Return
X 12% 0.80 9.6
Y 20% 0.20 4.0
Total =13.6
Dull 0.2 10 2 -5 25 5
Stable 0.5 14 7 -1 1 0.5
Growth 0.3 20 6 5 25 7.5
Total R A =15 Total =13
Variance of return A is 13 and the Standard Deviation is A = 13 = 3.6%
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EC P R A - RA R B - RB P*(R A - R A )*(R B - R B )
Dull 0.2 -5 -6 6.0
Stable 0.5 -1 3 -1.5
Growth 0.3 5 -1 -1.5
Total=3.00
Co var iance( A, B )
Correlation between A & B is r AB =
A B
3.0
= = 0.24
3.6 * 3.46
Portfolio weight A = 0.50, Weight B = 0.50,
r = 0.24, R A =15, R B =12, A = 3.6, B = 3.46
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Problem3: Two securities A and B have the fallowing risk, return and correlation
Solution: In this problem to find out risk, we require weightage of A & B in the
portfolio.
y 2 − cov xy
Formula for to calculate Weightage wx =
x 2 + y 2 − 2 cov xy
− 60
2
12
wA =
+ 12 − 2 * 60
2 2
10
144 − 60 84
= = = 0.68
100 + 144 − 120 124
wB = 1 − wB = 1- 0.68 = 0.32
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Solution:
Portfolio Return = 0.33*25 + 0.33*22 + 0.33*20
= 22.33%
=
0.33 * 30 + 0.33 2 * 26 2 + 0.33 * 24 + 2 * 0.33 * 0.33 * −0.5 * 30 * 26 + 2 * 0.33 * 0.33 * 0.4 * 26 * 24
2 2 2 2
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Problem: The data for three stocks are given. The data are obtained from
correlating returns on these stocks with the returns on the market index.
Stock Alpha αi Beta βi Residual variances σei2
1 -2.1 1.6 14
2 1.8 0.4 8
3 1.2 1.3 18
Which single stock would an investor prefer to own from a risk-return view point
if the market index were expected to have a return of 15% and variance of return
of 20%? (Use single index model)
Solution: Here we have to calculate the expected return and risk of each security
using the single index model.
Market variance σm2 = 20%, Market return Rm = 15%
Expected return of stock Rs = αs + Rm βs
Stock 1 = -2.1 + 15 * 1.6 = -2.1 + 24 = 21.9
Stock 2 = 1.8 + 15 * 0.4 = 1.8 + 6 = 7.8
Stock 3 = 1.2 + 15 * 1.3 = 1.2 + 19.5 = 20.7
Security variance is σs2 = σm2 βs2 + σe2
Stock 1 = 20 x (1.6)2 + 14 = 51.2 + 14 = 65.2
Stock 2 = 20 x 0.42 + 8 = 3.2 + 8 = 11.2
Stock 3 = 20 x 1.32 + 18 = 33.8 + 18 = 51.8
Stock risk is square root of stock variance
Stock 1 σs = √65.2 = 8.07; stock 2 σs = √11.2 = 3.35; stock 3 σs = √20.7 = 4.55;
Now we calculate the ratio of return to risk ratio the return per unit of risk
Table: Return to risk
Stock Return Risk Return to risk Ranking
1 21.9 8.07 2.7138 2
2 7.8 3.35 2.3284 3
3 20.7 4.55 4.5495 1
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
As actual price is not expected to move up to the theoretical price, the security is not attractive;
it is currently over-priced.
Exercise: Consider the following data regarding three risk factors and three securities (X, Y
and Z)
Factor loadings
Security F1 F2 F3
X 1.12 -0.56 0.63
Y 0.85 0.74 0.47
Z 1.30 -0.24 1.23
Risk premium associated with the risk factors are
Λ1 = 4.75%, λ2 = 2.30%, λ3 = -1.7%
Current market price and the anticipated future price of the three securities are
Security Current price Future price
X 410 430
Y 145 175
Z 570 620
a. Compute the expected return of the three securities, assuming risk free return 5.5%
b. Evaluate whether the securities are correctly priced.
Solution:
a. Expected security returns as per APT
E(R) = λ0 + b1 λ1 + b2 λ2 + b3 λ3,
Security X = 5.5 + 1.12 x 4,75 + (-0.56) x (2.30) + 0.63 (-1.7)
= 5.5 + 5.32 - 1.29 – 1.07 = 8.46%
Security Y = 5.5 + 0.85 x 4,75 + (0.74) x (2.30) + 0.47 (-1.7)
= 5.5 + 4.04 + 1.70 – 0.87 = 10.44%
Security Z = 5.5 + 1.30 x 4,75 + (-0.24) x (2.30) + 1.23 (-1.7)
= 5.5 + 6.18 – 0.55 – 2.09 = 9.04%
b. Evaluation of security pricing is done by comparing the current market price of the security
with the present value of future cash flows discounted at the APT expected return
Particulars X Y Z
Future cash flow (Sale proceeds of security) 430 175 620
Discount rate (APT expected return) 8.36% 10.44% 9.04%
Present value of future cash flow 396 158 569
Current market price of security 410 145 570
Pricing status Overpriced Under-priced Correctly priced
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
CAPM
Formula for to calculate portfolio return is
Security Market Line (SML) is the graphical form of CAPM
Expected return of the Portfolio 𝑅𝑝 = 𝐼𝑟𝑓 + (𝑅𝑚 − 𝐼𝑟𝑓 ) ∗ 𝛽
Sol:
Expected return of the security is 𝑅𝑠 = 𝐼𝑟𝑓 + (𝑅𝑚 − 𝐼𝑟𝑓 ) ∗ 𝛽
= 8 + (16 - 8) * 0.7
= 13.6%
24 = 8 + (16 - 8) * 𝛽
24 = 8 + 8 * 𝛽
24 – 8 = 8 * 𝛽
16 = 8 * 𝛽
𝛽 = 16/8 = 2
Sol:
The required rate of return on the portfolio may be found with the help of
CAPM, for which Beta need to find.
Given Values
Market return= 𝑅𝑚 = 18, Risk free return = 𝐼𝑟𝑓 = 12, 𝛽 =?
Correlation coefficient 𝑟𝑠𝑚 = 0.8
Stock standard deviation = 𝜎𝑠 = 2.8% and Market standard deviation = 𝜎𝑚 = 2.3%
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
𝑟𝑠𝑚 ∗𝜎𝑠
Formula to calculate Beta is 𝛽 =
𝜎𝑚
0.8∗2.8
= = 0.974
2.3
Problem3: The standard deviation of market return is 40% and expected return
is 14%. The risk free rate of interest is 7%. The covariance of returns for the
market and returns on shares of Sam Ltd. over the same period has been 20%.
Calculate cost of equity (expected rate of return) for Sam ltd.
Sol:
Given values
Market standard deviation = 𝜎𝑚 = 40%
Risk free return = 𝐼𝑟𝑓 = 7%
Market return= 𝑅𝑚 = 14%
Covariance of returns for the market and stock Cov 𝑀, 𝑆 = 20%
𝛽 =? and cost of equity (expected rate of return) is 𝑅𝑝 = ?
Cov M,S
Formula to calculate Beat is 𝛽 =
𝜎2𝑚
Market variance is square of market standard deviation is 0.40^2 = 0.16
0.20
𝛽= = 1.25
0.16
= 7 + (14 - 7) * 1.25
= 7 + 7 * 1.25
= 15.75%
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
A 6,00,000 1.3
B 3,00.000 1.4
C 1,00,000 0.9
Expected return on the market portfolio is 15% and the risk free rate of return is
6%, find out the expected 𝛽 and return of the portfolio?
Sol:
The expected return of the portfolio is the weighted average of expected return of
individual investments. On the basis of CAPM, expected 𝛽 of the portfolio is a
fallow
= 6 + (15 - 6) * 1.29
= 6 + 9 * 1.29
= 6 + 11.61 = 17.61%
Sol:
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Now need to find out securities correctly priced or not, for that need to calculate
𝛼 values.
𝛼 = Expected Return – CAPM based return
“If 𝜶 value is positive then that stock is under-priced, 𝜶 value is negative that
stock is overpriced. Under priced stocks are good for investment and over
priced stocks not good for investment”
So, from above problem Security I is under-priced and Security II, III are
overpriced.
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
The risk-free rate of return is 8%, while the market return is expected to be 18%.
In terms of the securities market line, which of the securities listed above or below
of the SML?
Solution:
CAPM Return 𝑅𝑝 = 𝑅𝑓 + (𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 ) ∗ 𝛽
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Exercise: The following table gives an analyst’s expected return on two stocks for particular
market returns
Market return (%) Aggressive return (%) Defensive return (%)
6 2 8
20 30 16
a. What are the betas of the two stocks
b. What is the expected return on each stock if the market return is equally likely to be 6% or
20%?
c. If the risk-free rate is 7% and the market return is equally likely to be 6% or 20% what is
the SML?
d. What are the alphas of the two stocks?
Solution:
a. The betas of the two stocks
𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 30 − 2 28
Aggressive stock = 𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 = 20 − 6 = 14 = 2
16 − 8 8
Defensive stock = = 14 = 0.571
20 − 6
SML = 7 + (13 – 7) β = 7 + 6 β
Defensive stock
Market expected return Rm = 13%, Risk-free rate Rf = 7%, Beta β = 0.571
CAPM return = Rf + (Rm – Rf) β = 7 + (13 – 7) x 0.571 = 10.426%
Alpha = Expected return – CAPM return = 12 – 10.426 = 1.574%
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
CML Returns
(𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 ) 𝜎𝑝
CML = Rf + ,
𝜎𝑚
Rf = Risk-free return, Rm = Market expected return, σp = Standard deviation of portfolio
σm = Standard deviation of market
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
b. In terms of SML
Table: Comparison of estimated price and expected price (CAPM return)
Expected
Estimated return ER -
Portfolios Return (%) Result Decision
(%) ER CAPM
CAPM
A 30 23 7.0 Under priced Good for Investment
B 25 19 6.0 Under priced Good for Investment
C 20 15 5.0 Under priced Good for Investment
D 11.5 13.4 -1.9 Over Priced Bad for Investment
E 10 11 -1.0 Over Priced Bad for Investment
c.
Expected risk of combination of five portfolios investing equally
βp = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑤𝑖 𝛽𝑖
= 0.2 x 2.0 + 0.2 x 1.5 + 0.2 x 1.0 + 0.2 x 0.8 + 0.2 x 0.5
= 0.2 (2.0 + 1.5 + 1.0 + 0.8 + 0.5) = 0.2 x 5.8 = 1.16
Portfolio expected return = 𝑅𝑓 + (𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 ) ∗ 𝛽𝑝
= 7 + (15 – 7) x 1.16 = 7 + 9.28 = 16.28%
So, expected return of new portfolio is 16.28% and risk is 1.16 (Systematic risk)
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Portfolio Evaluation
Portfolio evaluation can be done by using Sharpe, Treynor’s and Jensen α
measure
𝑅𝑝−𝑅𝑓
Formula’s Sharpe =
𝜎
𝑅𝑃 −𝑅𝑓
Treynor’s =
𝛽
Solution:
𝑅𝑝 −𝑅𝑓
i) Using Sharpe measure =
𝜎
A 13 9 16 4 0.25 3
B 17 9 23 8 0.348 2
C 23 9 39 14 0.359 1
D 15 9 25 6 0.24 4
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
𝑅𝑝 −𝑅𝑓
ii) Using Treynor measure
𝛽
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Case study: Suppose that seven portfolios experienced the fallowing results
during a ten-year period
Portfolios Average return Standard deviation Correlation with
Market
A 15.6 27 0.81
B 11.8 18 0.55
C 8.3 15.2 0.38
D 19.0 21.2 0.75
E -6.0 4.0 0.45
F 23.5 19.3 0.63
G 12.1 8.2 0.98
Market 13.0 12.0
Treasury bills 6.0
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Sharpe’s Ratio
𝑅𝑝 −𝑅𝑓
Using Sharpe measure =
𝜎
Table: Sharpe’s Ratio
Average Standard
Portfolios return Rp deviation σ Sharpe ratio Rank
A 15.6 27 0.3556 4
B 11.8 18 0.3222 5
C 8.3 15.2 0.1513 6
D 19 21.2 0.6132 3
E -6 4 -3.0000 7
F 23.5 19.3 0.9067 1
G 12.1 8.2 0.7439 2
Market 13 12 0.5833
Treasury bills 6 Rf
Treynor’s Ratio
𝑅𝑝 −𝑅𝑓
Using Treynor measure
𝛽
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Nagendra Marisetty IAPM Exercises
Jensen’s Alpha
Jensen Expected return = 𝑅𝑓 + (𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 )𝛽,
α measure = Portfolio return – expected return from Jensen measure
Table: Jensen Alpha
Average Jensen's Jensen
Beta β
Portfolios return Rp ER Alpha Performance Rank
A 15.6 1.823 18.758 -3.158 UP 6
B 11.8 0.825 11.775 0.025 OP 4
C 8.3 0.481 9.369 -1.069 UP 5
D 19 1.325 15.275 3.725 OP 2
E -6 0.150 7.050 -13.050 UP 7
F 23.5 1.013 13.093 10.407 OP 1
G 12.1 0.670 10.688 1.412 OP 3
Market 13 - Rm 1.000 13.000 0.000
Treasury bills 6 - Rf
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