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Northern Samar Climate Projections

The document projects changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature in Northern Samar, Philippines between 2036-2065 and 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000. For rainfall, increases are projected for December-February under moderate emissions, but larger increases under high emissions, with the largest changes possible during the northeast monsoon. Decreases are projected for June-August and September-November under both emissions scenarios. For temperature, increases are projected for all seasons and emissions scenarios, with the largest increases possible in June-August under high emissions. Potential impacts include changes to agriculture, livelihoods, and flooding/drought, requiring adaptation options.

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Earl Verzosa
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181 views7 pages

Northern Samar Climate Projections

The document projects changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature in Northern Samar, Philippines between 2036-2065 and 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000. For rainfall, increases are projected for December-February under moderate emissions, but larger increases under high emissions, with the largest changes possible during the northeast monsoon. Decreases are projected for June-August and September-November under both emissions scenarios. For temperature, increases are projected for all seasons and emissions scenarios, with the largest increases possible in June-August under high emissions. Potential impacts include changes to agriculture, livelihoods, and flooding/drought, requiring adaptation options.

Uploaded by

Earl Verzosa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Northern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount Rainfall Amount Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%)
(mm) (mm) Change

Lower Bound 2.2 25.2 1154.1 Minimal change Decrease in yield/production Provide insurance to farmers
Moderate
Emission Median 7.2 81.5 1210.4 Minimal to no change Farm flooding Conduct seminars
December-January-
February (DJF)
(RCP4.5) Upper Bound 45.5 513.1 1642 Fish kills

Lower Bound -4.8 -54.7 1074.2 Livestock disease


Observed baseline
= High Emission Median 14.8 166.9 1295.8 Maximum Change
1128.9 mm (RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 43.0 485.9 1614.8 Wettest possible change during NE
Monsoon

Lower Bound -0.7 -3.4 Agriculture


Moderate
Emission Median 2.2 10.3 livelihood
March-April-May
(MAM) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 18.3 84.5 children

Observed baseline Lower Bound 0.0 -0.1


=
462.2 mm High Emission Median 3.5 16.3
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 13.4 61.8
June-July-August Lower Bound -14.9 -84.4
(JJA) Moderate
Emission Median -7.3 -41.2
Observed baseline
(RCP4.5) Upper Bound 3.4 19.3
=
566.8 mm Lower Bound -19.5 -110.3

* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile


High Emission Median -4.0 -22.5
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 6.3 35.9
Lower Bound -14.4 -141.7
Moderate
September- Emission Median -8.4 -82.6
October-
(RCP4.5) Upper Bound 3.7 36.1
November (SON)
Lower Bound -21.1 -206.6
Observed baseline
= High Emission Median -3.2 -31.7
981.4 mm (RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 7.3 71.3

Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Northern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Projected Seasonal Mean Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Temperature (℃)
Change

Lower Bound 1.0 27


Moderate
Emission Median 1.2 27.2
December-January-
February (DJF) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 27.6
1.6
Observed baseline Lower Bound 1.3 27.3
=
26 ℃ High Emission Median 1.5 27.5
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 1.9 27.9
March-April-May Lower Bound 28.5
(MAM) Moderate
Emission Median 28.7

* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile


Observed baseline (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 1.7 29.2
=
Lower Bound 1.4 28.9
27.5 ℃

High Emission Median 29.1


(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 29.7
Lower Bound 1.0
Moderate
Emission Median 1.2
June-July-August
(JJA) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 1.8
Observed baseline Lower Bound 1.4
=
28.3 ℃ High Emission Median 1.6
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 30.6
Lower Bound 1.0
Moderate
September- Emission Median 1.1
October-
November (SON) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 29.3
Lower Bound 28.9
Observed baseline
= High Emission Median 1.5
27.5 ℃ (RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 29.7

Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Northern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount Rainfall Amount Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%)
(mm) (mm) Change

* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile


Lower Bound 0.7 7.7
Moderate
Emission Median 14.2 1288.9
December-January-
February (DJF) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 44.4 500.8
Observed baseline Lower Bound -6.1 -68.6
=
High Emission Median 6.5 1202.4
1128.9 mm
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 92.3 1042.0
Lower Bound -5.5 -25.6
Moderate
Emission Median 1.6 469.8
March-April-May
(MAM) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 15.7 72.3
Observed baseline Lower Bound 0.0 -0.1
=
462.2 mm High Emission Median 9.1 504.3
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 16.9 78.1
Lower Bound -22.6 -127.9
Moderate
Emission Median -6.3 530.8
June-July-August
(JJA) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 4.7 26.6
Observed baseline Lower Bound -30.3 395.1
=
High Emission Median -18.5 -105.1
566.8 mm
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 6.4 603.3
September- Lower Bound -22.1 -216.5
October- Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -15.9 825.2
(RCP4.5) Upper Bound 3.5 34.7
Observed baseline
= Lower Bound
981.4 mm
-33.3 654.4

* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile


High Emission Median -17.5 -171.7
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 6.4 1043.9

* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile


Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Northern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Projected Seasonal Mean Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Temperature (℃)
Change

Lower Bound 1.3


Moderate
Emission Median 27.4
December-January-
February (DJF) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 2.3
Observed baseline Lower Bound 2.3
=
26 ℃ High Emission Median 2.8
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 3.5
Lower Bound 1.3
Moderate
Emission Median 29.1
March-April-May
(MAM) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 2.5
Observed baseline Lower Bound 2.5
=
27.5 ℃ High Emission Median 3.0
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 31.3
Lower Bound 29.6
Moderate
Emission Median 1.5
June-July-August
(JJA) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 30.8
Observed baseline Lower Bound 2.6
=
28.3 ℃ High Emission Median 31.4
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 4.1
September- Lower Bound 28.8
October- Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.5
(RCP4.5) Upper Bound 2.4
Observed baseline
= Lower Bound 30.1
27.5 ℃
High Emission Median 3.0
(RCP8.5)
Upper Bound 4.0
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile

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