MENA-2
TUESDAY
MORNING
ROUND-UP
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East
Research
and
Best
Managed
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Survey.
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Survey
runs
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June
2011.
To
vote
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EFG
Hermes,
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Thank
you
for
your
support.
Egypt
Elsewedy
Electric
reports
preliminary
net
profit
of
EGP171
million
in
1Q2011
TE
seeks
new
DLD
tariff
rebalancing
–
first
impression:
negative
TE
to
reinstate
fee-cancelling
promotion
until
the
end
of
July
2011
Prosecutor
unfreezes
assets
of
13
businessmen
Eastern
increases
prices
on
nine
brands
by
4-11%
Madinaty
court
hearing
today,
no
verdict
expected
No
suspension
of
construction
permits
in
Sixth
of
October
and
New
Cairo
Egypt
plans
USD1
billion
Eurobond
backed
by
US
“sovereign
guarantee”
Egyptian
nitrogen-based
fertiliser
prices
double
on
distribution
difficulties
Saudi
Arabia
Al
Othaim
Markets
to
finalise
acquisition
deal
at
the
end
of
June
2011
STC’s
Indonesian
subsidiary
signs
USD1.2
billion
financing
agreement
Kingdom
Holdings’
and
Batelco’s
negotiations
to
acquire
25%
of
Zain
Saudi
Arabia
still
ongoing
Nama
Chemicals
extends
trial
production
at
calcium
chloride
plant
Morocco
Government
to
divest
half
its
stake
in
BCP
Agenda
Egypt
Tue
24
May
>>
Telecom
Egypt
ex-‐date
for
EGP1.30
cash
DPS
Thu
26
May
>>
Oriental
Weavers
ex-‐dividend
for
EGP2.0/share
cash
dividend
Sun
29
May
>>
Maridive
ex-‐dividend
date
for
USD0.06
cash
DPS
Mon
30
May
>>
Sidpec
AGM
and
EGM
Wed
1
June
>>
Telecom
Egypt
(TE)
1Q2011
results
Wed
1
June
>>
Elsewedy
Electric
ex-‐dividend
date
for
EGP1.00/share
cash
dividend
Mon
6
June
>>
Orascom
Construction
Industries
(OCI)
AGM
Mon
6
June
>>
Mobinil
ex-‐date
for
EGP3.16
cash
DPS
Saudi
Arabia
Wed
1
June
>>
Alujain
AGM
Wed
29
June
>>
Dar
Al
Arkan
AGM
and
EGM
Egypt
News
Elsewedy
Electric
reports
preliminary
net
profit
of
EGP171
million
in
1Q2011
Elsewedy
Electric
(SWDY.CA)
released
preliminary
1Q2011
results,
with
a
net
profit
of
EGP171
million
(+76%
Q-‐o-‐Q,
-‐32%
Y-‐o-‐Y).
Excluding
an
FX
gain
of
cEGP12
million,
1Q2011
net
profit
was
24%
below
2010’s
average
quarterly
normalised
net
profit
of
EGP210
million
(excluding
one-‐offs/FX
gain
or
loss),
driven
by
production
and
transportation
disruptions
that
affected
Egyptian
factories’
local
and
export
sales,
lowered
local
demand
in
Egypt,
and
lead
to
losses
of
export
sales
to
Libya.
However,
normalised
net
profit
was
7%
above
our
estimate,
we
believe
on
better
operational
performance.
Revenue
fell
4%
Q-‐o-‐Q
to
EGP3.5
billion.
Gross
profit
(costs
include
depreciation)
declined
9%
Q-‐o-‐Q
to
EGP448
million
and
came
in
17%
above
our
estimate.
Financial
statements
and
a
detailed
earnings
release
will
be
published
on
Thursday,
26
May
2011.
(Wafaa
Baddour)
Elsewedy
Electric:
EGP38.00,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
EGP59.00,
MCap:
USD1,098
million,
SWDY
EY
/
SWDY.CA
TE
seeks
new
DLD
tariff
rebalancing
–
first
impression:
negative
Telecom
Egypt
(TE)
[ETEL.CA]
has
put
forward
a
request
to
the
National
Telecommunications
Regulatory
Authority
(NTRA)
demanding
the
unification
of
domestic
long
distance
(DLD)
and
local
calling
rates
at
EGP0.03/minute,
Al
Masry
Al
Youm
newspaper
quoted
an
anonymous
source
at
the
NTRA
as
saying.
The
article
cited
the
NTRA
source
as
saying
that
it
will
take
time
before
the
regulator
comes
back
with
a
reply
to
the
request.
Additionally,
the
article
mentions
that
TE
is
considering
amendments
to
its
international
tariffs,
but
has
not
decided
on
any
structures
yet.
Our
view
–
negative
impact
on
TE
The
requested
unified
tariff
of
EGP0.03/minute
is
the
same
as
the
current
local
tariff
(fixed-‐to-‐fixed),
but
much
lower
than
the
DLD
rates
that
range
from
EGP0.08/minute
(implying
a
63%
cut)
to
EGP0.16/minute
(an
81%
cut).
We
view
the
reduction
as
aggressive,
coming
at
a
very
sensitive
time,
as
we
do
not
believe
that
the
current
elasticity
equilibrium
will
act
positively
in
favour
of
revenue
growth.
We
do
not
believe
that
this
tariff
cut
will
generate
enough
traffic
to
counter
the
tariff
decline,
and
we
think
that
the
end
result
will
be
more
pressure
on
DLD
revenue,
which
constitutes
c4%
of
retail
revenue,
according
to
our
estimates.
The
company
does
not
provide
the
DLD
line
of
revenue
separately;
it
is
included
in
the
voice
revenue
(retail),
and
based
on
previous
conversations
with
TE’s
management,
we
assume
this
line
has
been
declining
aggressively
over
the
past
three
years.
Management
highlighted
on
several
occasions
that
EGP0.03/minute
is
lower
than
the
actual
per-‐minute
cost
and
is
subsidised
by
revenue
generated
from
the
international
calling
segment.
We
believe
that
if/when
the
DLD
rate
is
reduced
to
EGP0.03/minute,
there
will
be
a
negative
impact
on
the
EBITDA
margin.
The
impact
on
total
revenue
should
not
be
large
since
DLD
contributes
less
than
3%
to
total
revenue.
We
note
that,
thus
far,
this
piece
of
news
has
not
yet
been
announced
by
nor
commented
on
by
TE.
We
also
believe
that
it
will
take
some
time
until
the
NTRA
makes
a
final
decision
regarding
a
tariff
rebalance,
especially
in
light
of
the
current
instability
in
Egypt.
We
keep
our
forecasts
and
Buy
rating
unchanged,
with
a
fair
value
(FV)
of
EGP19.50/share,
but
we
believe
that
this
rebalance,
if
approved,
would
have
an
impact
on
our
numbers.
(Omar
Maher,
Marise
Ananian)
TE:
EGP16.84,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
EGP19.5,
MCap:
USD4,831
million,
TELE
EY
/
ETEL.CA
TE
to
reinstate
fee-cancelling
promotion
until
the
end
of
July
2011
Telecom
Egypt
(TE)
[ETEL.CA]
will
reinstate
a
previous
promotion
that
exempts
customers
from
paying
administrative
and
installation
fees,
Al
Youm
Al
Sabe
reported,
adding
that
the
promotion
would
last
from
24
May
2011
until
the
end
of
July
2011.
TE’s
acting
CEO,
Mohamed
Abdel
Rehim,
said
that
the
promotion
benefits
all
residential
and
business
customers.
(Al
Youm
Al
Sabe)
TE:
EGP16.84,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
EGP19.50,
MCap:
USD4,831
million,
TELE
EY
/
ETEL.CA
Prosecutor
unfreezes
assets
of
13
businessmen
Egypt’s
public
prosecutor
has
unfrozen
the
assets
of
13
businessmen
on
a
list
of
people
barred
from
trading
because
of
graft
investigations
launched
after
the
fall
of
Hosni
Mubarak,
the
Cairo
Stock
Exchange
said
on
23
May
2011.
The
businessmen
include
Safwan
Thabet,
Chairman
of
Juhayna
Food
Industries
Co
(JUFO.CA),
and
Ahmed
Bahgat,
who
owns
two
satellite
television
channels
and
a
big
development
in
the
suburbs
of
Cairo.
(Reuters)
Juhayna:
EGP5.47,
Rating:
Neutral,
FV:
EGP5.60,
MCap:
USD668
million,
JUFO
EY
/
JUFO.CA
Eastern
increases
prices
on
nine
brands
by
4-11%
Eastern
Company
(EC)
[EAST.CA]
has
announced
that
it
has
increased
the
prices
of
nine
cigarette
brands,
as
at
23
May
2011,
in
a
disclosure
sent
to
the
stock
exchange.
The
price
increases
are
4-‐11%
according
to
our
calculations
based
on
the
prices
quoted
in
the
disclosure
document.
The
company
did
not
raise
prices
of
its
cheapest,
most
highly
demanded
Cleopatra
Golden
brand,
maintaining
it
at
EGP4.25
per
pack.
The
price
increases
are
part
of
Eastern’s
strategy
to
protect
its
margins
against
rising
input
prices
and
FX
pressures,
according
to
Al
Masry
Al
Youm.
(Company
Disclosure,
Al
Masry
Al
Youm)
Eastern
Company:
EGP100.00,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
EGP129.00,
MCap:
USD840
million,
ESTC
EY
/
EAST.CA
Madinaty
court
hearing
today,
no
verdict
expected
A
court
hearing
related
to
Talaat
Moustafa
Group’s
(TMG)
[TMGH.CA]
Madinaty
contract
case
is
to
take
place
today.
According
to
the
company’s
legal
advisor,
Shawky
el-‐Sayed,
no
verdict
is
expected
in
today’s
hearing,
Al
Alam
Al
Youm
reported.
(Al
Alam
Al
Youm,
Jan
Pawel
Hasman,
Shaza
El
Kady)
TMG:
EGP4.26,
Rating:
Buy,
FV:
EGP9.10,
MCap:
USD1,441
million,
TMGH
EY
/
TMGH.CA
CBE
gives
the
green
light
for
mobile
money
transfer;
MCIT
plans
launch
before
July
2011
The
Central
Bank
of
Egypt
(CBE)
has
approved
Mobile
Money
Transfer
(MMT)
in
Egypt,
and
the
Ministry
of
Communications
and
Information
Technology
(MCIT)
plans
to
have
the
service
commercially
launched
before
July
2011,
Al
Mal
reported,
adding
that
the
MCIT
has
decided
that
the
watchdog
will
be
the
National
Telecommunications
Regulatory
Authority
(NTRA).
The
responsibilities
of
regulation
were
one
of
the
key
issues
between
the
CBE
and
the
MCIT
that
had
delayed
the
activation
of
the
service.
This
is
a
positive
development
for
mobile
operators
who
have
been
aggressively
demanding
the
launch
of
this
service
for
the
past
two
years.
From
our
previous
conversations
with
operators’
management
teams
we
understand
that
the
main
obstacle
for
launching
the
service
was
CBE
regulations.
We
believe
this
service
will
help
operators
to
enhance
ARPUs,
which
should
provide
some
support
to
the
top
line
growth
that
is
declining,
given
mobile
voice
maturity.
(Al
Mal,
Marise
Ananian,
Omar
Maher)
No
suspension
of
construction
permits
in
Sixth
of
October
and
New
Cairo
The
Chairmen
of
the
Sixth
of
October
City
Authority
and
New
Cairo
Authority
have
denied
news
reports
that
new
construction
permits
in
Sixth
of
October
and
New
Cairo
would
be
suspended
on
an
expected
water
supply
shortage,
Al
Mal
reported.
The
Chairman
of
the
Sixth
of
October
City
Authority,
Mohamed
Nabih,
added
that
measures
have
been
taken
to
address
the
expected
water
supply
shortage,
such
as
expanding
the
capacity
of
one
of
the
current
water
plants,
which
is
expected
to
be
completed
by
the
end
of
August
2011.
Nabih
added
that
the
Sixth
of
October
City
Authority
has
not
stopped
the
issuance
of
new
construction
permits,
and
that
new
construction
permits
issued
per
month
have
ranged
from
900
permits
to
1,200
permits.
(Al
Mal)
Egypt
plans
USD1
billion
Eurobond
backed
by
US
“sovereign
guarantee”
Egypt
plans
to
raise
USD1
billion
by
selling
Eurobonds
this
year
to
diversify
borrowing
and
finance
a
widening
budget
deficit.
The
five-‐year
bonds
will
be
backed
by
a
US
“sovereign
guarantee,”
Finance
Minister
Samir
Radwan
said
on
23
May
2011.
“We
should
tap
the
market
quickly.
We
need
to
diversify
because
the
local
market
is
squeezed.”
The
finance
ministry
has
not
hired
banks
to
manage
the
sale,
Radwan
said.
The
bonds
will
follow
the
issuance
of
USD1.5
billion
in
Eurobonds
in
2010,
which
included
a
USD1
billion
in
10-‐year
bonds
and
USD500
million
in
debt
due
to
mature
in
2040.
We
see
the
issuance
as
positive
in
diversifying
the
government’s
sources
of
borrowing,
especially
given
that
the
US
guarantee
would
ensure
a
relatively
inexpensive
cost
of
the
issuance.
The
local
T-‐bill
market
has
been
squeezed,
as
foreigners
nearly
sold
all
their
holdings
of
local
T-‐bills
and
the
government
rapidly
increased
its
issuances
to
finance
a
widening
deficit,
leading
to
a
rise
in
yields
that
sometimes
prevented
the
government
from
raising
needed
amounts.
(Bloomberg,
Mohamed
Abu
Basha)
Qatar
may
invest
USD10
billion
in
Egypt
Qatar
may
invest
USD10
billion
in
Egypt
to
create
jobs
and
boost
cooperation
between
the
two
countries,
Al
Ahram
reported,
citing
Qatar’s
Ambassador
Saleh
Aboulainain.
A
Qatari
delegation
that
will
include
businessmen
and
corporate
executives
will
start
talks
with
Egyptian
officials
on
28
May
2011,
the
state-‐run,
Cairo-‐based
newspaper
said.
(Al
Ahram,
Bloomberg)
Al
Watany
Bank
to
sell
Yasmeen
Hotels
stake
Al
Watany
Bank
of
Egypt’s
((WATA.CA)
management,
the
Egyptian
subsidiary
of
National
Bank
of
Kuwait
(NBK)
[NBKK.KW],
has
approved
the
sale
of
its
stake
in
Yasmeen
Hotels.
The
bank
will
sell
its
Yasmeen
Hotels
stake
for
EGP40
million,
which
will
be
recorded
on
the
bank’s
books
in
2Q2011.
(Bloomberg)
Egyptian
nitrogen-based
fertiliser
prices
double
on
distribution
difficulties
Local
prices
for
nitrogen-‐based
fertilisers
have
doubled
to
EGP3,000/tonne,
up
from
the
official
price
of
EGP1,500/tonne,
al-‐Alam
al-‐Youm
reported,
which
raised
farmers’
cost
by
10%.
The
Head
of
Fertilisers
Branch
in
the
Chamber
of
Commerce,
Mohamed
Al-‐Kheshen,
accused
the
Principal
Bank
for
Development
&
Agriculture
Credit
(PBDAC)
of
not
providing
easy
access
to
fertilisers
for
farmers,
which
makes
them
prefer
to
buy
from
the
black
market.
Egypt
currently
face
an
annual
shortage
of
300,000
tonnes
of
urea,
he
added,
which
cannot
be
imported,
given
high
international
prices
(USD425/tonne),
and
which
should
be
covered
by
companies
in
the
free
zone.
(Al-‐Alam
al-‐Youm)
Saudi
Arabia
News
Al
Othaim
Markets
to
finalise
acquisition
deal
at
the
end
of
June
2011
Al
Othaim
Markets
(4001.SE)
announced
that
all
the
valuation
and
studies
regarding
the
acquisition
of
Al
Othaim
Malls
have
been
finalised
on
22
May
2011
and
the
results
of
the
valuation
were
presented
to
the
board
during
its
meeting
held
on
23
May
2011.
The
board
will
examine
the
results
of
the
valuation,
with
the
selling
company
(Al
Othaim
Malls)
to
agree
on
the
value
and
structure
of
the
deal.
The
final
date
for
the
acquisition
will
be
at
the
end
of
June
2011
if
both
parties
agreed
on
the
deal
terms.
In
August
2010,
Al
Othaim
Markets
signed
a
memorandum
of
understanding
(MOU),
valid
for
six
months,
to
fully
acquire
Al
Othaim
Malls.
The
transaction
will
be
non-‐cash
since
Al
Othaim
Markets
will
issue
new
shares
to
acquire
its
affiliate.
(Tadawul,
Tarek
El
Shawarby)
Al
Othaim:
SAR100.00,
Rating:
Neutral,
FV:
SAR97.00,
MCap:
USD600
million,
AOTHAIM
AB
/
4001.SE
STC’s
Indonesian
subsidiary
signs
USD1.2
billion
financing
agreement
Saudi
Telecom
Company’s
(STC)
[7010.SE]
Indonesian
subsidiary
Axis
(NTS)
signed
a
USD1.2
billion
financing
agreement
with
a
maturity
of
7.5
years
with
local
and
international
financial
institutions,
STC
announced
in
a
statement
on
the
Tadawul
website.
The
financing
programme
involves
three
main
parts:
i)
a
USD450
million
Murabaha
loan,
ii)
a
USD400
million
facility
from
China
Development
Bank
to
buy
equipment
from
Huawei,
and
iii)
a
USD350
million
facility
from
HSBC
to
cover
equipment
from
Ericsson.
All
facilities
are
Sharia-‐compliant.
The
loans
will
be
used
to
finance
Axis’
expansion
and
growth
strategies
for
the
next
five
years,
in
addition
to
improving
coverage.
(Tadawul)
STC:
SAR36.30,
Rating:
Neutral,
FV:
SAR41.40,
MCap
USD19,360
million,
STC
AB
/
7010.SE
Kingdom
Holdings’
and
Batelco’s
negotiations
to
acquire
25%
of
Zain
Saudi
Arabia
still
ongoing
Kingdom
Holdings
and
Bahrain’s
incumbent
Batelco
announced
in
a
statement
on
the
Tadawul
website
that
negotiations
to
buy
Zain
Group’s
(ZAIN.KW)
25%
stake
in
Zain
Saudi
Arabia
(7030.SE)
are
still
ongoing
between
all
related
parties.
This
comes
in
response
to
news
out
two
days
ago
that
negotiations
had
hit
a
snag
on
management
rights.
(Tadawul)
Zain
KSA:
SAR7.25,
Rating:
Neutral,
FV:
SAR7.78,
MCap:
USD2,707
million,
ZAINKSA
AB
/
7030.SE
Zain
Group:
KWD1.06,
Rating:
Sell,
FV:
KWD0.92,
MCap:
USD14,592
million,
ZAIN
KK
/
ZAIN.KW
Nama
Chemicals
extends
trial
production
at
calcium
chloride
plant
Nama
Chemicals
Company
(2210.SE)
has
announced
that
the
company
has
extended
the
trial
production
period
at
its
calcium
chloride
plant.
The
trial
production
was
originally
scheduled
to
be
completed
at
the
end
of
1Q2011;
however,
some
technical
issues
at
the
plant
have
delayed
the
start
of
commercial
operations.
The
plant,
which
is
now
operational,
but
is
not
yet
producing
at
its
designed
capacity,
is
expected
to
reach
full
production
rates
by
the
end
of
2011.
(Tadawul)
Morocco
News
Government
to
divest
half
its
stake
in
BCP
Morocco
aims
to
raise
MAD5.3
billion
by
selling
a
stake
in
Banque
Central
Populaire
(BCP.CS)
at
a
time
when
a
spending
spree
to
contain
street
protests
has
burdened
the
country’s
finances.
The
Finance
and
Economy
Ministry
said
on
23
May
2011
that
the
sale
of
the
stake
in
BCP,
amongst
the
country’s
top
three
lenders,
will
see
the
state
giving
up
half
of
its
40%
stake
in
the
bank
to
the
latter’s
regional
branches
known
as
Banques
Populaires
Regionales,
which
will
end
up
holding
37%
in
BCP.
The
sale,
according
to
the
ministry,
aims
to
boost
BCP’s
development
and
allows
its
regional
branches
to
play
a
bigger
role
in
the
country’s
plan
to
devolve
powers
to
its
regions.
Shares
in
BCP
have
been
suspended
from
trading
since
20
May
2011
on
the
Casablanca
bourse
pending
the
announcement.
The
news
comes
in
line
with
previous
government
announcements
that
it
will
finance
its
widening
deficit
through
asset
sales.
Morocco
needed
to
double
its
spending
on
subsidies
to
match
rising
commodity
prices.
The
government
also
granted
public
workers
a
generous
pay
increase
in
an
effort
to
tame
protests.
The
sale
amount
is
equivalent
to
0.65%
of
GDP
and
may
represent
upside
risk
to
our
fiscal
deficit
forecast
of
4.5%
of
GDP
for
2011
pending
the
cost
of
the
recent
wage
hike
and
further
increases
in
oil
prices.
(Reuters,
Mohamed
Abu
Basha)
BCP:
MAD411.00,
Rating:
Sell,
FV:
MAD296.90,
MCap:
USD3,155
million,
BCP
CM
/
BCP.CS
[Note
–
EFG
Hermes
is
not
responsible
for
the
accuracy
of
news
items
taken
from
other
media.]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Our
investment
recommendations
take
into
account
both
risk
and
expected
return.
We
base
our
fair
value
estimate
on
a
fundamental
analysis
of
the
company’s
future
prospects,
after
having
taken
perceived
risk
into
consideration.
We
have
conducted
extensive
research
to
arrive
at
our
investment
recommendations
and
fair
value
estimates
for
the
company
or
companies
mentioned
in
this
report.
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information
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report
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Hermes
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and
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regarding
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prospects
may
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and
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with
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the
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or
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determining
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investment
is
appropriate
to
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