DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION GRADE 12 MATHEMATICS B 12.3: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS FODE DISTANCE LEARNING Cua e PUBLISHED BY FLEXIBLE OPEN AND DISTANCE EDUCATION ( FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Or PAPUA NEW GUINEAeee a (GY srr2maruaenes ous PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS GRADE 12 MATHEMATICS B UNIT MODULE 3 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Fundamental Principles of Counting Probability TOPIC 3: StatisticsGR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 AKCNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements We acknowledge the contribution of all Secondary and Upper Primary teachers who in one way or another helped to develop this Course. Special thanks are given to the staff of the Mathematics Department- FODE who played active role in coordinating writing workshops, outsourcing of lesson writing and editing processes involving selected teachers in NCD. We also acknowledge the professional guidance and services provided through- out the processes of writing by the members of: Mathematics Subject Review Committee-FODE ‘Academic Advisory Committee-FODE Mathematics Department- CDAD This book was developed with the invaluable support and co-funding of the GO- PNG and World Bank. MR. DEMAS TONGOGO Principal-FODE @ lexible Open and Distance Education “© Papua New Guinea Published in 2016 @ Copyright 2016, Department of Education Papua New Guinea All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or any other form of reproduction by any process is allowed without the prior permission of the publisher. ISBN: 978- 9980-89-413-7 National Library Services of Papua New Guinea Written by: Prof. Grace Tiqui Compiled and finalised by: Mathematics Department-FODE Printed by the Flexible, Open and Distance Educationaz. Ce GR12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 contents CONTENTS Page Title, _ : 1 ‘Acknowledgement and Copy Right. 2 Content: 3 Secretary's Message. 4 Unit Introduction nn 5 12.3.1: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING...... 6 112.4.1.1: Counting Principles. 6 12.4.1.2: Permutation.. 16 12.4.1.3: Combination. 26 ‘Summative Task 1. 33 12.3.2: PROBABILITY... 34 Fundamentals of Probability. Probabi ies of Events... Independent and dependent Events.... Conditional Probability.. Summative Task 12.3.2. 62 12.3.3: STATISTICS. 65 12.3.3.1: The Scatter Diagram. 65 12.3.3. Analysis Using Correlation. 71 12.3.3.3: Regression. 12.3.3.3.1: Line of best Fit... . 12,3.3.3.2: _ Interpolation and Extrapolation. 88 Summative Task 12.4.3. 7 92 summary. nn ee 94 ANSWERS TO LEARNING ACTIVITIES 12.4.1 to 12.4.4.. 97 REFERENCES... 105GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 MESSAGE SECRETARY'S MESSAGE Achieving a better future by individual students, their families, communities or the nation as ‘a whole depends on the curriculum and the way it is delivered. This course is part and parcel of the NDOE new reformed curriculum. Its learning outcomes are student centred and written in terms that allow them to be demonstrated, assessed and measured. It maintains the rationale, goals, aims and principles of the National Curriculum and identifies the knowledge, skills, attitudes and values that students should achieve. This is a provision of Flexible, Open and Distance Education as an alternative pathway of formal education. The Course promotes Papua New Guinea values and beliefs which are found in its constitution, Government policies and reports. It is developed in line with the National Education Plan (2005 ~ 2014) and addresses an increase in the number of school leavers which has been coupled with a limited access to secondary and higher educational institutions. Flexible, Open and Distance Education is guided by the Department of Education's Mission which is fivefold: to facilitate and promote the integral development of every individual to develop and encourage an education system which satisfies the requirements of Papua New Guinea and its people ‘to establish, preserve, and improve standards of education throughout Papua New Guinea to make the benefits of such education available as widely as possible to all of the people * to make education accessible to the physically, mentally and socially handicapped as well as to those who are educationally disadvantaged The College is enhanced to provide alternative and comparable pathways for students and adults to complete their education, through one system, many pathways and same learning outcomes, It is our vision that Papua New Guineans harness all appropriate and affordable technologies to pursue this program, | commend all those teachers, curriculum writers and instructional designers who have contributed so much in developing this course. A Ph EdveationGR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 UNIT INTRODUCTION UNIT 3: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS. introduc n "There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don't know we do not know," ~ Donald Rumsfeld The above quotation makes us think and reflect of the known and unknowns we deal in our everyday life. Such dealing involves two important branches of mathematics, Probability and Statistics. Probability deals with certainty or uncertainty that an event will happen while statistics deals with data collection, analysis and interpretation. These two are very important in our daily lives as they guide us in making informed and sound decisions. This module will consider the local environment as its context for most application problems. (© tearnine outcomes On successful completion of this module, you will be able to: * calculate simple probability of events « classify and calculate events as independent and dependent « investigate and calculate events as mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive * plot scatter diagrams © discuss and interpret linear and non-linear relationships * calculate the regression and correlation coefficients ‘* write equation of the regression line * interpret regression and correlation coefficient in the context of the problemee gp. (@% sce izmatuemarics 8 us FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING (rime FRAME This unit should be completed wi in 6 weeks. If you set an average of 3 hours per day, you should be able to complete the unit comfortably by the end of the assigned week. Try to do all the learning activities and compare your answers with the ones provided at the end of the unit. If you do not get a particular exercise right in the first attempt, you should not get discouraged but instead, go back and attempt it again. If you still do not get it right after several attempts then you should seek help from your friend or even your tutor. Do not pass any question without solving it first. 12.3.1: Fundamental Principles in Counting 12.3.1.1: Counting Principles and Techniques The first Mathematical skill probably taught to you by your parents when you started talking could be counting, Yes, learning to count as 1, 2, 3 and so on may be too familiar. But what do we really mean by counting? Counting is more than saying the numbers one after the other; it is the fundamental in solving many problems in mathematics. Specifically Probability involves counting the number of ways an event can occur or, equivalently, counting the number of possible ways there are to perform a specific task. The idea of counting may sound easy but sometimes the number of outcomes of your sample space is too large to list and count. Therefore, principles of counting and techniques will help us facilitate. Counting the number of cars in a parking lot may be easy. How about counting the possible number of car plates for taxis in a certain area? We can possibly list a passcode using 3 letters and 2 numbers as much as we can. But can you count the total number of passcodes to be generated? If you toss a coin, it is easy to determine the possible outcomes because it could just be either head or tail. If you toss 4 coins altogether, how will you determine the total number of possible outcomes? This is where the counting principles and techniques will assist in giving the exact count with speed and accuracy. 6GR 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING cS Counting Technique 1: The Listing Method This method suggests that you list all possible outcomes and simply count them. This is the most basic of all methods and usually it is employed when the total outcomes expected are very few. Example 1 How many possible outcomes when a fair coin is tossed? Solution: Any fair coin will give you Head (H) or Tail (T) when tossed. Therefore, there are 2 outcomes expected when a coin is tossed. Example 2 How many possible outcomes when a fair dice is tossed? Solution A fair dice is a cube with 6 faces where each face represents the numbers 1-6. (oe ewe sees § Therefore, there are six possible outcomes and they are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Example 3 When a pair of fair dice is tossed, list all possible outcomes. Solution: Imagine a pair of fair dice being tossed and thinking both dice will show the same face so we can now determine that outcomes include (1,1), (2,2), (3,3) , (4,4), (5,5) and (6,6) but there's more and listing of them can be a bit cor fusing,7 GR12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING. Possible outcomes of the first dice de aa) 42 5G) 1) (2,1) | (1,2) | (2,3) | (1,4) | (1,5) | (1,6) “A wef 2 | (2,4) | (2,2) | (2,3) | (2.4) | (2.5) | (2,6) - 3 | (3,1) | (3,2) | (3,3) | (3,4) | (3,5) | (3,6) 4 (4,1) | (4,2) | (4,3) | (4,4) | (4,5) | (4,6) 5. (5,1) | (5,2) | (5,3) | (5,4) | (5,5) | (5.6) Possible outcomes of the second dice 6 | (6,1) | (6,2) | (6,3) | (6,4) | (6,5) | (6,6) The table shows a neat and organized listing of the 36 outcomes when a pair of fair dice is tossed. Counting Technique 2: The Tree Diagram This technique does not only aid counting but helps to create a more accurate and organized listing as well. In addition, this technique is used when more data variables are included in the outcome. Example 4 A restaurant offers a promotion where the customer can make his own set of meal for only k25 by choosing a chicken meal, a side dish, and a drink in the list of menu shown below: Chicken Side Dish Drinks Roasted Mashed Potato Cola Fried Chips Orange juice Grilled Bottled Water ‘The manager of the restaurant would like to know the total number of meal set possible and wants to see the specific list in every set. Find the number of “meal set” the restaurant offers and make a listing of the sets. Solution: To make an accurate list of meal sets, we will use a tree diagram. See next pageCe R12 MATHEMATICS B UB FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE IN COUNTING Here is the tree diagram. Cola }-> Meal Set 1 Mashed Potato Orange juice Meal Set 2 Bottled water | Meal Set 3 Meal Set 4 ‘Meal Set 5 |» Meal set 6 ‘Orange juice Bottled water Cola |» Meal set 7 Mashed Potato Orange juice Meal Set 8 Bottled water_}—® Meal Set 9 Cola Meal Set 10 (Orange juice Meal Set 11 Bottled water |—> Meal Set 12 Cola |-» Meal set 13 Mashed Potato (Orange juice Meal Set 14 Bottled water Meal Set 15, Grilled Cola [> Meal set 16 Chips Orange juice _|+» Meal Set 17 Bottled water [->Meal set 18 Now looking at the diagram, we can see 18 sets of meals and they can be listed as follow: Promo Meal Content Meal Set 1 Roasted Chicken, Mashed Potato and Cola Meal Set 2 Roasted Chicken, Mashed Potato and Orange Juice Meal Set 3 Roasted Chicken, Mashed Potato and Bottled Water Meal Set 4 Roasted Chicken, Chips and Cola Meal Set 5 Roasted Chicken, Chips and Orange Juice Meal Set 6 Roasted Chicken, Chips and Bottled Water Meal Set 7 Fried Chicken, Mashed Potato and Cola Meal Set 8 Fried Chicken, Mashed Potato and Orange Juice ‘Meal Set 9 Fried Chicken, Mashed Potato and Bottled Water Meal Set 10 _| Fried Chicken, Chips and Cola Meal Set 11 _ | Fried Chicken, Chips and Orange Juice MealSet12__ | Fried Chicken, Chips and Bottled Water Maal Set 13ge (GY crzmarnenanesus FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING This method is very helpful when you need to count and list at the same time. Let us try another example. Example 5 Determine the possible number of outcomes when a K1 coin and a fair dice are tossed together. Make a listing of the outcomes: Solution: ‘AK1 coin has 2 faces, the head (H) @ and the tail (T) @® while a fair dice has 6 faces. “SESRIEE We can draw a tree diagram like the one below: Hl H2 H3 H4 HS H6 Tl 12 13 14 1S 16 Now we can clearly see that the 12 possible outcomes are H1, H2, H3, H4, HS, H6, T1, 12, 13, T4, TS and T6. Counting Technique he Fundamental Counting Principle In some cases, like in computing probability which will be discussed in the succeeding topics, the complete list of possible outcomes may no longer be necessary but the total number of outcome does. And in most cases, the number of outcomes can be really big. Imagine the number of outcomes in a lottery draw or the number of possible pass code combinations using 3 letters and two numbers. The third technique will be very useful for these cases. The Fundamental Counting Principle If there are A ways for one event to occur, and B ways for another event to occur, then there are A x B ways for both to occur. This principle applies to any fixed number of event denoted by Ax Bx C... Where A, B, C... represents fixed, certain or exact values.GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING Example 6 A mobile phone application needs a passcode using two letters and 2 numbers. How many passcodes can possibly be used for this mobile application? Solution: In this case since we need 2 letters and 2 numbers for a passcode, there are 4 events namely: First event: Using 1 letter out of the 26 letters in the English alphabet. Second event: Using another letter (maybe the same or different from the first) out of the 26 letters in the English alphabet Third event: Using 1 digit from the digits 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 or 9. Fourth event: Using 1 digit (maybe the same or different from the first) from the digits 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 oF 9. Applying the Fundamental Counting Principle we say: If there are 26 ways for the first event to occur, 26 ways for the second event to occur, 10 ways for the third event to occur and another 10 ways for the fourth event to occur, then there are 26 x 26 x 10 x 10 ways for all of them to occur at the same time which form the passcode. Calculate: 26 x 26 x 10 x 10 = 67 600 Therefore, there are 67 600 passcodes that can be possibly used for the mobile application. Example 7 In a fund raising activity, a raffle is held where each raffle ticket must bear a control ID with the letter A, B or C with 2 numbers. a) _ Find the total number of tickets to sell for this fund raising activity. b) _ Find the number of tickets with NO repeated digits. Solution. a) There are 3 evan’ Third event: Using 1 digit (maybe the same or different from the first) out of the 10 digits. 1GR12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING Applying the Fundamental Counting Principle we say: If there are 3 ways for the first event to occur, 10 ways for the second event to occur, and 10 ways for the third event to occur, then there are 3 x 10 x 10 ways for all of them to occur at the same time which forms the control ID for raffle tickets in a fund raising activity. Calculate: 3 x 10 x 10 = 300 Therefore, there are 300 tickets to sell for the fund raising activity b) There are also 3 events involved here. First event: You have 3 choices using 1 letter out of the 3 (A, B or C) Second event: You have 10 choices using 1 digit out of the digits 0, 1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 or 9. Third event: Using 1 digit different from the first. Since we are only counting the one with NO repeated digits, therefore, you have only 9 digits to choose from since in the second event a digit was already chosen. Applying the Fundamental Counting Principle we say: If there are 3 ways for the first event to occur, 10 ways for the second event to occur, and 9 ways for the third event to occur, then there are 3 x 10 x 9 ways for all of them to occur at the same time which forms the control ID for raffle tickets in a fund raising activity. Calculate: 3 x 10x9 = 270 Wondering what are the 30 control IDs with repeating digits? These are the control IDs with repeating digits which were subtracted from the 300 total. ‘A00, A11, A22, A33, A44, ASS, A66, A77, A88, A99 800, B11, B22, B33, B44, BSS, B66, B77, B88, B99 C00, C11, C22, C33, C44, C55, C66, C77, C88, C99 Therefore, there are 270 control ID tickets with NO repeated digits Now, you are ready to try the following learning activities to challenge yourself to count more intelligently. Now do the learning activity on the next page.GR 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING ao Learning Activity 12.3.1.1 &) 20 minutes 1) Joshua and John play toss coin. As they toss 3 coins at the same time, they list the outcomes they can observe. How many outcomes will there be in their list? Show your complete list. Total number of outcomes: 2) Aplanner offers a “wedding package” where the couple can choose from 3 varieties of flowers available, 5 color motifs and 3 wedding set ups as detailed below: Use a tree diagram to show ALL possible “Wedding Packages” to offer to clients and list them on the table provided: Tree Diagram Flower, Color Motif I Theme Set-up Roses Pearl White Church Wedding Birds of Paradise Golden Yellow Beach Wedding Tulips Luscious Purple Garden Wedding Serene Green Royal Blue BGR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING ig Package Description / Inclusion 14GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING 3) 4) Christen has 3 sport shirts, 2 blouses, and 3 shorts which she can “mix and match” and wear in school. How many possible matches can she have? Lisa tossed 2 coins and 4 fair dices all together. How many possible outcomes can she draw? 15Ce 812 wares 82 FUNDAMENTAL PRNLIEES IW COUNTING 12.3.1.2: Permutation Now that you have already familiarized yourselves with the different counting techniques, let us move to another way of counting but this time we will count the possible arrangements of objects involved Permutation is an ordered arrangement of items that occurs when a) _ no item is used more than once. b) _ the order of arrangement makes a difference. Example 1 If you are asked to arrange the letters ABC, how many possible arrangements can you have? Solution: You may list them as follows: ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA Therefore, you may conclude that there are 6 possible arrangements when the letters A, B and C were arranged. This may look easy if the objects to arrange are very few. Notice that no letter was used more than once and the order of arrangement makes a difference. The fundamental counting principle can be used to determine the number of permutations of n objects. For instance, you can find the number of ways you can arrange the letters A, B, and C by multiplying. There are 3 choices for the first letter, 2 choices for the second letter, and 1 choice for the third letter, so there are 3 x 2x 1 = 6 ways to arrange the letters In general, the number of permutations of distinct objects (n) is: nt read as “n factorial” where: nl=nx(n-1)x(n-2)x...x3x2xK1 0! (zero factorial), by definition, is 1. (0! = 1)Ny e ana MUTVENATRS BU FUNDAMENTAL PRINIFESN COUNTING Example 2 In how many ways can the letters in the word LOVE be arranged? Solution: Since there are 4 distinct letters to arrange, we use 4! = 4x 3x 2x 1= 24. Therefore, there are 24 ways the letters in the word LOVE can be arranged. Scientific Calculators can also be used for a bigger number such as 50!, 100! and so on. Just look at the symbol x! in your calculator which is usually found on the 2” level of your calculator. The following are samples where the x! can be found. If you want to get 9! Using the model below where x! is found on the number keys on top of simply press G2 EE) LS) and it will show 9! In your calculator screen. pressing Mal will give you 362880. In some models, x! can be found on the function keys. In the model below it is found on top BEB si sie you sezaso v7GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING e Example 3 Twelve runners from different provinces are competing in the final round of a marathon entitled “best of the best runners”. a. In how many different ways can the runners finish the competition? We assume that there are no ties because time is counted by seconds. b. In how many different ways can 3 of the runners finish first, second, and third to win the gold, silver, and bronze medals? Solution: a. Since there are 12 runners, therefore the number of ways the runners finish the competition is counted by 12! 121 = 12 x 11x 10x 9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1= 479 001 600 Therefore, there are 479 001 600 ways the runners finish the competition. b. Any of the 12 runners can finish first, then any of the remaining 11 runners can finish second, and finally any of the remaining 10 runners can finish third. So, we can count the number of ways the runners can win the medals (gold, silver, bronze) by multiplying: 12 x 11 x 10 = 1320 Therefore, there are 1320 ways wherein 3 of the runners finish first, second, and third and win the gold, silver, and bronze medals. Example 4: In how many ways can 4 Algebra, 3 Geometry, 2 Trigonometry and 2 Calculus books be arranged in a shelf if: a) arrangements in no particular order? b) books of the same topic must be arranged next to each other? ©) Algebra books are arranged next to each other while the rest may be arranged in any order? Solution: a) Since arrangement needs no particular order, therefore the number of ways the books may be arranged in a shelf is counted by (4+3+2+2)! = 11! 11 = 11x 10x9x8x7%x6x5x4x3x2x1= 39916 800 18GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING Therefore, there are 39 916 800 ways 4 Algebra, 3 Geometry, 2 Trigonometry and 2 Calculus books can be arranged in a shelf. b) If books of the same topics must be arranged next to each other, let us first get the number of ways we can arrange them next with each other per topic. Algebra books: 4l=4x3x2x1 =24 Geometry books: 3! Bl=3x2x1 -=6 Trigonometry books: 2! 21=2x1 =2 Calculus books: 2! Qs2x1 =2 Since the books can be moved and arranged per topic (Algebra, Geometry, Trigonometry, Calculus) we have 4! Al=4x3x2x1 4 We can now solve the number of ways books of the same topic be arranged next to each other by multiplying. 413i 2204! 24x6x2x2x24 = 13824 Therefore, there are 13 824 ways books of the same topic be arranged next to each other. ©) If Algebra books are arranged next to each other (4!) while the rest may be arranged in any order (11-4)! Or 7! Then, we count by: Algebra books: Rest of the books (3 Geometry + 2 Trigonometry + 2 Calculus): TI=7x6x5x4x3x2K1 040 Now we simplify 4! 7! = 24 x 5040 = 120 960. Therefore, there are 120 960 ways Algebra books are arranged next to each other while the rest may be in any order4 Example 5 In how many ways can 10 people seat in a round table? Soluti If they are seated in row or column, we can simply say it is 10! But since they are in a round table, if all of them will move one seat to their right, they will still be seated next to same person and their arrangement does not change. This is an example of a case of Circular Permutation. Circular permutations of distinct objects (n) is (n-1)! Following the formula, we have (10-1)! =9!=9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 362 880 Therefore, there are 362 880 ways 10 people can be seated in a round table. Sometimes, we have a set of objects represented by n. And we only want to take a certain number represented by r. We can count the number of arrangements using the following formula: Where: Pris read as “the number of permutations of r items taken from n” nis the total number of items ris the number of items to be arranged taken from n. Please note that r can be equal or less than n but cannot be greater than n. Example 6 From a class of 20 students the teacher needs to form a committee of 3 students to assist her in leading the class in the field trip. One has to take the role of the class captain, one to be the class monitor and the third one to be class secretary. In how many ways can the teacher form the committee if all of the 20 students are equally competent to take any role? Solution: In this case the total number of students (n) = 20 and we will take a number to be in the committee at a time (r) = 3 20GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING e ft Using the formula: °F = Gy Substituting the values of n and r in the formula we have: 20! P3= a” 20-3)! 20! ‘Simplify: P3= — plify: woe At this point, you can use your scient 17! Then EXE or equal sign ic calculator to solve for this by simple pressing 20! — Without the calculator, you can also solve for this manually by further simplifying the formula: 20 x19 x18 x17 x16 x15 x..x1 P3 = » 17x16 x15x.x4 20x19x18 1 840 Please note that 17 x 16 x 15 x 14x 13x 12x 11x 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1is equal to 17! 20 x 19 x18 x17! The simplified working out can also be written as 2oPs = x = 20x 19x18 = 6840 This is a neater working out since we will cancel 17! And we are left with 20 x 19 x 18 = 6 480 Example 7 There are 10 books in a shelf. In how many ways can they be arranged? a) If all books will be included in the arrangement? b) If 4 books were taken out and only 6 books were left to be arranged? Solution a) if all books will be i dad, we can simeiy 101. This is simitar with the Zxainp 1 2 and 3. aut for you to fully understand, | use the formula to shew how it was derived. b)In this case, the total number of books (n) = 10 and we will take and arrange (r) = 10. nl Substitute the values of n and rin the formula: P, Teal (n=) to! (20-10)! _ to! “Or Hence, we have 1oP19 = Remember that 0! is equal to 1. Therefore, when n =r, the denominator will become 0! and the numerator is the given number itself in factorial form. 10! Therefore, soPio = =10X9x8x7xX6xX5x4x3x2x1 = 3 268 800 There are 3, 268, 800 ways to arrange 10 books in a shelf. ©) If 4 books were taken out and only 6 books were left to be arranged, we can now say that n = 10 while r= 6. Why 6 and not 4? Remember, r represents the number of items taken out to be arranged. In this example, although 4 were taken out, the 6 left were the ones to be arranged. nt Substitute the values of n and rin the formula, 40! (10-6)! Hence, we have 10P5 =10x9x8x7x6x5 Cancel out 4! = 151200 Therefore, there are 151 200 ways to arrange 6 books randomly taken from 10 books. 2Ce Gok 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING Another type of arrangement that you can encounter is Permutations of duplicate items. In this case, the number of permutations of n items, where n; items are identical, nz items are identical, ns items are identical, and so on, is given by: Pr al (0,019,010, In this formula, the denominator consists of the number of identical or duplicated items multiplied by each other (if there is more than 1 duplicated item). Example 8 In how many distinct ways can the letters of the word MISSISSIPPI be arranged? Solution: Since there are a total of 11 letters in the word MISSISSIPPI, therefore n = 11. 1, will represent the number of letter | in the word, therefore ni= 4 2 will represent the number of letter s in the word, therefore nz= 4 1, will represent the number of letter p in the word, therefore n3= 2 al Substitute the given values in the formula: 4P, = ———"—___ (0,009,010). a canranin 11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4! (41428) We have Pr Expand cancel out 4! 11x10x9x8x7x6x5. (aty(2!) 11x 10x 9x8x7x6xS 4x3x2x1x2x1 _ 1.863 200 , “a simelty = 34650 A sciantifie calcuie Try to practice using the calculator too and familiarize yourself with both techniques, 23i ( 7 GR12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING Se oO Learning Activity 12.3.1.2 & 20 minutes Solve the following problems. Show your working out. 1) In how many ways can the letters in the word JUSTICE be arranged? 2) Inhow many ways can the vowel letters be arranged? 3) In how many ways can the numbers 0-9 be arranged? 4) In how many ways can the name CHERRIE be arranged? 5) In how many ways can the following pots be arranged teeei tie a) Inno particular order? + 24GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING b) If pots of the same flowers are placed next to each other? 6) If S boys and 7 girls are arranged in row, how many ways can they be lined up CET PTI a. inno particular order? b. _ ifthe girls and the boys must be together? c. if 3 girls must be in the first 3 spots while the rest may be arranged in no particular order? 7) In how many ways can 10 leaders be seated in a round table for a meeting? 8) There are 8 athletes in a marathon. In how many ways can the champion, first runner up and second runner up be determined if all of the athletes are equally competitive? SISALe Gaz MATHEMATIC BUS FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES iM COUNTING 12.3.1.3. Combination Combination is a counting technique wherein the number of groupings and not order of the objects is being counted. The order or arrangement of objects is not important or does not really matter. Unlike Permutation, in Combination we count the possible groupings of objects and not the arrangement itself. We can note that a combination of items occurs when * the items are selected from the same group. * no item is used more than once. + the order of items makes no difference. Suppose a teacher forms a committee of 3 students from a class of 20 to assist her in leading the class in the field trip. This time, the members of the committee will play the same role No one will act as the class captain, monitor or secretary. Suppose you, John and Maria were consecutively selected on the first draw, how will the committee differ if John was selected first, Maria, second, and you, the third to be appointed by the teacher? Does the committee vary when the order of selection of members as they were called differed? Good observation if you say that the committee chosen on the first draw is the same as the committee drawn in the second regardless of the order the members were called or selected by the teacher, This kind of situation involves combination. Take note that John, Maria and you were taken from the same group of 20 students in the class. That each of you is a distinct individual and the order you were called makes no difference. The number of possible combinations if r items are taken from n items is determined by the formula: al G " nC, is read as “the combination of r taken n at a time” nis the total number of items ris the number of items to be included in the group taken from n. Note that r can be equal or less than n but cannot be greater than n. And when n =r, the combination is always 1, which means all the members are taken from the same group. 26Ce ee UNDanesraPemeres pf coUme Example 1 Let us try to solve the previous example presented in a situation earlier. ‘Suppose a teacher forms a committee of 3 students from a class of 20 to assist her in leading the class in the field trip. How many possible committees can the teacher form? Since we already discussed earlier that the members of the committee will play the same role, no one will act as the class captain, monitor or secretary. All of the selected committee members will play the same role. Therefore, order of the members is not really important in this case. First identify the given in the problem: The total number of students (n) = 20 The committee will consist of 3 members at a time (r) = nt Using the formula H(n=n}t 20! First we substitute the values of n and r in the formula 4,C, == ——— 31(20-3)! Calculate: 35Cs _ 20x19 18x17! 31x17! 20x19 18 3 20 x 19 x 18 3x2x1 6840 6 21140 Therefore, there students. 7Ce Gg 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U2 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCPLES IN COUNTING Using the calculator, is as easy as a breeze... just press the following keys 1G; is found in the function keys The following examples provide working out for you to fully understand the use of formula. However, it is also encouraged that you try your calculator to verify answers. Through this you will be capable of answering problems both manually and with the aid of calculators. Example 2 A bakery sells a dozen of donuts of various kind and flavor for half the prize before its closing time. Dorothy found that there are 15 donuts left when she visited the store. How many dozens of different donuts are possible? SESSEE CC @HEEGOE Solution: First identify the given in the problem. The total number of donuts (n) = 15. Dorothy must pick a dozen donuts at a time (r) = 12. Using tha formula ,¢, =", substitute the values of n andr. ri(n—r)t 15! We have oo 121(15-12)! 15! 121(3)! _ 15x14x13x12! 121x31 15x14%13 3 _ 15x14x13 3x2x1 __ 2730 6 = 455 Simplify: 6, Cancel out 12! Therefore, there are 455 different dozens possible out of the 15 donuts left on sale.GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING © Example 3 There are 12 females and 13 males in a Grade 12 class. A committee of 6 members is to be formed to organize their class graduation party at the end of the school year. Calculate the number of ways the committee will be selected if: Hiiip a) Any member of the class can be chosen to form part of the com b) The committee must be composed of 3 females and 3 males from the class. c) The committee must be composed of 2 females and 4 males from the class. Solution: a) The total number of students (n) = 12 + 13 = 25 The number of members of the committee taken at a time (r) = 6 4 Using the formula ce l(n=n)! 251 First we substitute the values of n and r in the formula ,,C, == 61(25-6)! 251 simpli P 61(19)1 __ 25x24x23x 22x21x20x19! 191x6! 25x24x23x22x21x20 a 25x 24%23x22x21x20 6x5x4x3x2x1 Cancel out 191, 127512000 720 = 177100 Therefore, there are 177 100 different committees possible out of the 25 students in the class. b} If the committa: famaias and 3 males from the class, have ta solve them sezara! Choosing 3 out of tins 12 femaies we have 12C3, Where n = andr =3. Using the formulaGR 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING First we substitute the values of n and r in the formula: c- 224 eee" 3112 3)! 12! 3109)! 12x11x10x9! ~ 3x9! 12x11x10 3 12x11x10 3x2x1 320 Simplify: ae Cancel out $1, we have Choosing 3 out of the 13 males we have 3C3. Where n= 13 andr = 3, Using the same formula we substitute the values of n and r. ! 1G 31(13-3)! ! Ge 3110)! 13x 12x 11x10! 3x10! _ 13x11 3 _13x12x11 © 3x2x1 Cancel out 101, we have _ 1716 6 = 286 Since there are .C; = 220 ways having females and ,3C; = 286 ways having males, a committee consisting of having 3 females and 3 males is derived by multiplying 12C3 and 13Cs, 12C3 « 13C3= 220 + 286 = 62 920 Therefore, there are 62 920 ways of forming a committee of six with 3 females and 3 males. 30GR.12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING ©) If the committee must be composed of 2 females and 4 males from the class, we can simply solve that using example b as our guide. This time, we will try to solve it continuously so you can have another way of answering it. Having 2 from 12 females is represented by :2C, where n = 12 and r = 2, while having 4 males out of the 13 is represented by 13C, where n = 13 and r= 4. To get the number of ways a committee with 2 females and 4 males is formed, we simply multiply :2Czand 13Ca Using the formula (:2C2)(ssCa), let us substitute the respective givens. (cancel out 101 and 91, then expand the 13x12x11x10x9! © 20)! 4119)! denominator. : 12x1d fa 13x12x11x10 2x1 4x3x2x1 2 24 =66x715 = 47190 Therefore, there are 47 190 ways of forming a committee of six with 2 females and 4 males. Now do the learning activity. a Learning Activity 12.3.1.3 &)» minutes 1. Find the value of the following: (You may verify your answers using a scientific calculator.) 31GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING b) aaCs= ©) asCio= d) 2Co= e) wCis= f) 2sCao= 8) sCae aCe= h) Cre aCe eee i) aGaesGae De aCassCs= 32Co ec oniniouanesoina anions un wiclrrd 2) Solve the following problems. a) How many sub-groups with 5 members can be formed from a group of 15 dancers? b) In an international sports festival, PNG will be represented by a total of 10 athletes. The following are the trained athletes that can represent the country. Athletics Event | Number of Athletes Trained Track and Field Javelin Ambulant Hurdles and Jumps Pole Vault, 5 i. How many ways can the country be represented if there are 2 athletes from every event? ii. How many possible groups are there if there are 6 representatives from the track and field group and 4 from the hurdles and jumps group? ii, How many possible groups can be made if all members from the shot puts will join and the rest may come from any athletics group? 33GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES IN COUNTING oa SUMMATIVE TASK 12.3.1 &) 40 minutes 1. Find the value of the following. You may use your scientific calculator to verify the answers. a) 8! = b) (9-6)! = 2315! = 4) asPo = e)10Ps = ale . 8) aCe = h) CaesCs = i) Gres = 2. How many outcomes will there be if two coins and a fair dice are tossed? 3. How many 6-digit numbers can be drawn in a0 to 42 lottery draw? 34C Gn 12 MATHEMATICS 8 UB FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE IN COUNTING 4, Liza is trying to make a passcode consisting of 4 letters from A to J and 4 even numbers. How many possible passcodes can she form if repetition of letters and numbers is not allowed? 35Ce cn 2 warnenares6u3 PROBABLUTY 12.3. Probability Probability is the language used in mathematics to model certainty or the “chance” that something will happen. Maybe you are wondering how we can measure chance. |s that possible? Let us consider this situation. Your Mum called from the office saying that she misplaced her pair of earrings in the living room. It happened that you and your brother were the only ones left in the house and you tried searching for it. What is the chance that you will be the one to find the missing earrings? Since there are only 2 of you in the house, you might say you have “one in two” or one half chance of finding it. And your brother has an equal chance of finding it too. Mathematically speaking, each of you has 50% chance. Right? And your Mum who is no longer in the house has no chance to find it at that moment. Let us say, when your Mum called more people are in the house. How will you describe your chances of being the person to find it? Did your chance increase or decrease? Of course, the above situation sounds too easy to consider. But as you go along with the module, you will learn how to calculate simple probability of events and analyze data using probability The data and examples we will be looking at and discussing the outcomes of simple mathematics and scientific experiments. These outcomes will show many different kinds of uncertainty and randomness. These will lead you to develop a proper understanding of experimental results, and lead you to be able to understand the randomness and other underlying principles involved in probability. 12.3.2.1: Fundamentals of Probability We begin this topic by discussing the fundamentals or basic concepts in probability. Since we already equated the word “chance” with probability, we will simplify the definitions as follows. 'y is the measure of the chance or will occur or happen. When something is certain NOT to happen or we say it is impossible to happen, then it has zero probability, 36- eC enema! oe ‘Sample spaces, events and sets In Mathematics when dealing with probabilities, an activity in which we perform a number of trials to enable us to measure the chance of a certain things may occur is called an experiment. This is not the similar experiment conducted in laboratories but somehow, this may be similar in a way that the activity aims to test possibility of random outcomes or results. Simple activity of tossing a coin is considered as an experiment. Because this activity can lead us to outcomes such as getting Heads or Tails. The set of all possible outcomes of the experiment is known as the sample space. It is usually denoted by S (capital S), and an element of the sample space or an outcome is denoted by s. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. By doing an experiment of tossing a coin, the sample space S = {Heads, Tails} and s can either be Heads or Tails only. Example 1 Jade rolled a fair die 20 times and he listed what he got in a table as shown below. Outcomes: Number of occurrence Hil fd || l ° ° Zz 2 |e se i nat 1 3 lt 33 I | Identify the experiment, outcomes and sample space. 37“a Ce G6R.12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 PROBABILITY Solution Experiment: rolling a die Outcomes: (may be in random order) landing with face up showing the follo JOC CEE Sample space: $= (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Using the sample space in Example 1, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Subsets can also be drawn like getting even numbers or odd numbers. These subsets which are outcomes taken from the sample set s are called events. An event is a collection of outcomes having a common characteristics from the sample space. It is a subset of the sample space wherein its elements were taken from the sample space. A simple event consists of exactly one outcome and a compound event consists of more than one outcomes. If Jade rolled a fair die, the event of getting even numbers is Sjeven) = (2, 4, 6} , the event of getting odd numbers Sia) = (1, 3, 5}, and the event of getting a number greater than 5 is Stereater than 5) = {6}. Sieven) ANd Siogs) are compound events because there are three outcomes in each event while Sjreaterthans) iS a simple event wherein the outcome is exactly one only. Example 2 Given the sample space as the set of integers S events: -3,-2, -1, 1, 2, 3...}, identify the following a) Getting whole numbers. b) Getting an integer less than 1 but greater than -1 ©) Getting an integer less than zero. Solution: a) The set of whole numbers is a subset of the sample space (set of Integers), therefore Stnhote numbers} = {0,1,2,3...} the three dots (ellipsis) means that the set goes on to positive infinity. b) The integer less that 1 but greater than -1 is zero. Other values in between -1 and 1 are fractions and decimals, therefore Siess tan 1 but greater than-1) = {0}. ©) The set of integers less than zero are the set of negative numbers, therefore, S(less than zero) = {-1, -2, -3, -4..} the three dots (ellipsis) means that the set goes on to negative infinity. 38C GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY A Learning Activity 12.3.1.3 &) 15 minutes Identify the sample space (S) in the following by listing the complete set of outcomes: 1. Tossing two coins 2. Tossing a coin anda die py) X@ 4. Drawing marbles from a bottle which contains 2 blue marbles (BM), 3 green marbles (GM) and 4 yellow marbles (YM). 5. _ What will happen if you only brought the following clothes in your out-of-town tour? CMA Choose a method to be able to make neat listings of possible trousers-shirt pairs. Use two letters to write the pair. Example TL means White Shirt (first) paired with Long Pants (last).GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY 12.3.2.2 Probability of Events In this lesson, we will deal with two important terminologies we have discussed previously: probability and event. We have defined probability as the measure of the chance or likelihood that an event wil occur or happen while an event is a collection of outcomes having a common characteristic from the sample space. We may classify events into four types. v The null event is the empty subset of the sample space. A simple event is a subset consisting of a single element of the sample space. A compound event is a subset consisting of more than one element of the sample space. The sample space itself is also an event. y Vv Vv Understanding the two important terminologies will enable you to fully understand what probability of events means. The Probability of Event P(E) or also known as classical probability or simple probability is concerned with carrying out probability calculations based on equal or likely outcomes. That is, we assume that each element in the sample space have the same chance. We calculate the Probability of Event as E n P(e) Where: E is the number of ways € can occur nis the total number of outcomes The calculated value of P(E) is usually in between 0 to 1 and it may be interpreted as follows: 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 O07 08 O09 1 0 10% — 20% 30% © 40% + 50% + «6O% 70% += 80% + 90% 100% Impossible to happen Certain to happen Half chance it will happen and half it will not ‘A PROBABILITY SCALE 40GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY If P(E) is equal to 1, it means that it is 100% sure to happen, while 0 P(E) means it is impossible to happen. There is no chance that the event will occur if P(E) = 0, that is why some reference note that probability may come close to zero but not really zero. Like a probability of 0.000001 may seem equal or too close to zero but stil it is not equal to zero itself. Therefore a cloud of chance is still seen. Example 1 ‘Suppose a fair die is rolled, what is the probability of a) getting a whole number? b) getting an even number? c) getting anumber less than 1? d) getting a number less than 3? Solution: Since you are already familiar with rolling a fair die, and we have noted in our previous discussions that the total number of outcomes in rolling a die is 6 (that is getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6), then we say that n =6. a) The event is getting a whole number since we all know that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are all whole numbers, therefore E = 6. E Using the formula P(E) = = n Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E} (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 1 x 100 = 100% Therefore, the probability of getting a whole number when rolling a die is 100%. b) The event is getting an even number. The even numbers we can derive in rolling a die are 2, 4 and 6, therefore E Using the formula P(E) = = n Substitute the values of £ and n, we have P(E) Multiply it by 200 to exoress the prohauitity as p Therefore, the probability of getting an even number when rolling a die is 50%. aLCe eens te ay ©) The event is getting a number less than 1. Since we all know that the least number we can derive in rolling a die is 1, therefore the event is null, S(less than 1) = E (empty a set) Therefore, it is impossible to draw a number less than 1 when rolling a die. d) The event is getting a number less than 3. These numbers are 2 and 1, therefore E = 2. Using the formula P(e)= © n 2 Substitute the values of € and n, we have P(E) = == 0.33333. (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.33333..x 100 = 33.33...% 1 or 33%. 3 Therefore, the probability of getting a number less than 3 when rolling a di 1 33%. 3 Example 2 In an ordinary deck of playing cards, compute the probability of a) drawing an Ace card b) drawing a red card. ©) drawing a face card. d) drawing a hearts card. e) drawing an Ace of club. f) drawing a joker. Solution: An ordinary deck of cards consists of 52 cards, therefore, we can say that n = 52.GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY The set of diamonds and set of hearts are also called as “red cards” while the set of clubs and the set of spades are called “black cards”. The “face cards” con: a) b) ¢ d) of all Jack, Queen and King cards. The event is drawing an Ace card. Since there are 4 Aces in the deck of cards, therefore E = 4. Using the formula P(e) = © n Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = 4 (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.076923 x 100 = 7.69%. 0.076923 Therefore, the probability of drawing an Ace card from an ordinary deck is 7.69%. The event is drawing a red card. There are 13 hearts card and 13 diamonds cards, therefore E = 26. Using the formula P(E) = — 2 Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = & (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.5 x 100 = 50%. Therefore, the probal The event is drawing a face card. There are 12 face cards, 4. therefore E = 12. Using the formula P(E) = — ry of drawing a red card from an ordinary deck is 50%. Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = 2 = 0.230769 (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.230769 x 100 = 23.08%. Therefore, the probability of drawing a face card from an ordinary deck is 23.08%. The event is drawing a spade card. There are 13 spade cards, therefore E = 13. Using the formula P(e) = © &. | a Substitute the val (Muitipiy i 2y 109 co express the Therefore, the probawility of drawing a spade card from an ordinary deck is 25%. 43SY ) The event is drawing an Ace of club card, there is only one Ace of club card, therefore E = 1, Using the formula P(e) = & a % : by, Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = dro 01923 (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.01923 x 100 = 1.92%. Therefore, the probability of drawing an Ace of club card from an ordinary deck is 1.92%. f) The event is drawing a joker card, in an ordinary deck of cards, the joker is a> not included, therefore E = @. We can also say that E = 0. If we apply the formula, we will divide 0 by 52 and the result is still 0. Therefore, there is no chance of drawing a joker card from an ordinary f deck. Example 3 In a school fund raising, the tickets being sold have a control number from 000 to 999. The solicitor (the person who sold the ticket) wins a special prize for every winning ticket sold. What is the probability of winning in the raffle draw if you have sold a) SO tickets? b) 200 tickets? ©) Only 1 ticket? Solution: First we have to determine the sample space or the total number of tickets (n). Knowing that the tickets were numbered using 3 digits and repetitions of digits are allowed, we use the fundamental counting principle to determine n. Since the digits includes 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, therefore there are 10 ways for the first digit to occur, 10 ways for the second digit to occur and 10 ways for the last digit to occur. Then there are 10 x 10 x 10 = 1.000 ways for all the 3 digits found in the tickets to occur. So we now say that n = 1.000. a) The event is winning in the ticket draw for selling 50 tickets, therefore E = 50, E Using the formula P(E) = — n 4aGR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY © Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.05x 100 = 5%. Therefore, the probability of winning in the raffle draw as a solicitor for selling 50 tickets is 5%. b) The event is winning in the ticket draw for selling 200 tickets, therefore E = 200. Using the formuta P(e) = © a Substitute the values of E and n, we have P(E) = —700- 1000 (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.2x 100 = 20%. Therefore, the probability of winning in the raffle draw as a solicitor for selling 200 tickets is 20%. ) The event is winning in the ticket draw for selling 1 ticket only, therefore E = 1. E Using the formula P(E) = — n Substitute the values of € and n, we have P(E) = —*—= 0.001 1000 (Multiply it by 100 to express the probability as percent) so 0.001x 100 = 1%. ‘Therefore, the probability of winning in the raffle draw as a solicitor for selling just 1 ticket is 0.01%, This example shows that no matter how small the probability may seem, there is still chance of winning. Take note, in counting probability, each raffle ticket or coupon has 0.01% chance of being picked for the win Lesson? Never lose hope. And the cliché is true that “the more coupons you have, the more chances of winning” What is the difference now that you know how to compute probability? This time, you will be more accurate in computing your chances. First you have to determine the sample space to make an accurate computation Now, try the fatlawiny 45oO Learning Activity 12.3.2.2 €) 20 minutes Solve the following problems. Express the final answer in percent %. 1) 2) There are 15 boys and 20 girls in a class. The teacher will have to draw the name of 1 student to represent the class in a Mathematics challenge quiz bee. What is the that the representative is, b) agirl? There are 50 different cookies in a jar. Half of them are oatmeal cookies while 10 of them are chocolate cookies. The rest of the cookies are butter caramel flavored. If a child will randomly pick cookies from the jar, find the probability that the cookie is a) an oatmeal? b) a chocolate? c) abutter caramel? S 3) Ina shop, 4 employees are female and 8 employees are male. What is the probability that the employee of the month is a female? 46. C ee12 martemaricse us PROBABLUTY 4) In a grocery shop, a box contains 50 apples, 15 of them are Gala apples and the rest are Fuji apples. What is the probability that a shopper will pick a Fuji apple? 5) A jar contains 8 red marbles, 5 blue marbles and 7 green marbles. What is the probability of drawing a) ared marble? b) agreen marble? ©) ablue marble? 12.3.2.3. Independent and Dependent Events In the previous lesson, we have discussed what an event means and classified them. We also computed the probability of a single event. In this lesson we will discuss compound events. Compound events refer to two or more events occurring simultaneously. These simultaneous events may be classified as Independent or Dependent events. Events are independent when the outcome of cne event does not influence the or ther hand, bye or more events are dependent outcome of the next ever nthe if the the first aFfect The illustration on the next events. ge shows the difference between dependent and independent a7GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY On the first draw, one picks a red marble and then On the first draw, one picks a red marble and then draws the second marble without returns the marble before drawing the returning red second ball Independent Dependent marble previously Events Events drawn. with replacement without replacement Probability of independent events The illustration above shows that in dealing with independent events, replacement is being done before the next occurrence. IFA and B are independent events, then the probability that both A and B occur is P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) The above formula means that for two independent events, the probability that both events occur is the product of the probabilities of the events. The formula can be used for more than two independent events. Just multiply the probability of each event. Example 1 The tethering function of an android mobile phone randomly generates passcodes using the digits 0 to 9, wherein each digit can be used more than once. What is the probability that the first digit is 7 and the second digit is an odd number? Solution: This problem involves independent events since the occurrence of the first digit does not affect the occurrence of the second digit.GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY P(A) is the probability that the first digit is 7. Since having 7 in the first digit is a simple event wherein it will only occur once, therefore E = 1 and n = 10 since there are 10 digits from 0 to 9. We can write P(A) = ; (it is advisable to retain it in the form of a fraction to avoid rounding error when dealing with decimals. It is also easier to multiply fractions than decimals with a number of place values.) P(B) is the probability that the second digit i odd digits from 0 to 9, therefore E = 5 and 1 2 an odd number. Since |, 3, 5, 7, and 9 are the 10 since there are 10 digits from 0 to 9. We 5 ite P(B) = > can write P(8) = + Since P(A) and P(B) were already determined, we can now substitute their values in the formula (or simply multiply them) to get the probability of both events. Formula: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) 1 1 . Substitute P(A) and P(B): P(AandB)= 5 * > (recall the rule in multiplying fractions) 1 ‘Simplify: P(A and B) = a (Express it in percent by dividing 1 by 14 and multiplying the resulting decimals to 100.) P(AandB) = .07143 = 7.14% Therefore, the probability of having 7 in the first digit and an odd number in the second digit of a randomly generated passcode is 7.14%. Example 2 Hurray Lucky Mall gives their customers the chance to join their lucky spin promotion for every purchase of a laptop or desktop computer. Lucy bought two units of laptops for their office needs. She is then entitled to spin the wheel twice. What is the prodac is ry int second spi“sy Solutio This problem also involves independent events since the first spin on the wheel does not affect the second spin. P(A) is the probability that Lucy loses by getting a “sorry”. Since there are 6 occurrence of sorry in the wheel therefore E = 6 and n = 12 since the wheel is divided into 12 equal parts. 6 1 We can write P(A) = <= or 5 (Again, itis advisable to retain it in a form of a fraction to avoid rounding error when dealing with decimal. It is also easier to multiply fractions than decimals with a number of place values.) P(B) is the probability that Lucy will hit the jackpot. Since hitting the jackpot is a simple event il wherein it will only occur once, therefore E = 1 and n = 12. We can write P(B) = =. Since P(A) and P(B) were already determined, we can now substitute their values in the formula (or simply multiply them) to get the probability of both events. Formula: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) aia Substitute P(A) and P(B): P(Aand B)= > + 5 (apply the rule in multiplying fractions) Simplify: P(A and B) = = (Express it in percent by dividing 1 by 24 and multiplying the resulting decimals to 100) P(Aand B) = .04167 = 4.17% Therefore, the probability that Lucy the jackpot on her second spin is 4.17%. lose by getting a sorry in the first spin and wins Did you notice that in both P(A) and P(B) we have used the same value for n? This is what makes the problems independent. If n of P(A) is equal with n of P(B) it suggest that there is a replacement done in the elements of the sample space.> GR 12 MATHEMATICS 8 U3 PROBABILITY Probability of dependent events Referring back on the illustration on page 48, it shows that in dealing with dependent events, no replacement is being done before the next occurrence. If A and B are dependent events, then the probability that both A and B occur is P(A and B) = P(A) +P(B given A) ‘The above formula means that for two dependent events, the probability that both events occur is the product of the probability that the first event occurs and the probability that the second event occurs given that the first event has occurred. The formula can be used for more than two dependent events. Just always consider the occurrence of the previous events, Example 3 A jar of assorted candies consist of the following: eH 25 pieces strawberry candies 30 pieces blueberry candies 35 pieces raspberry candies ‘Angel picked 2 candies at random. What is the probability that the first candy she picked is raspberry and the second is a blueberry? Solution: This problem involves dependent events since drawing the first candy Angel has a total of 90 candies to choose from and there are only 89 left to choose from when drawing the second candy, P(A) is the probability that Angel picks a raspberry candy. Since there are 35 raspberry candies, then E = 35 and n = 90 which is the total of all the candies (25 + 30 + 35). We can en or — 90° 18 write P(A) P(B) is the probability that Angel picks a blueberry candy on her second draw. Since there are 30 blueberry candies, then € = 30 and n = 89. Why not 90? On the second draw n becomes 89 as we have to subtract the raspberry candy picked by Angel o nce she has to pick two candies, she will ast return the frst candy picked, thus making his first draw. equal to $9 (90 ~ 1). Weca Since P(A) and P(8) were already determined, we can now substitute their values in the formula (or simply multiply them) to get the probability of both events.e ferences a P(A and B) = [P(A)][P(B)] Formula: / \ Substitute P(A) and (8): Pinana a) (7)(22) (apply the rule in multiplying fractions) } 18. Simi minands)= 22. 38 (Express it in percent by dividing 35 by 267 and multiplying the resulting decimals to 100.) 0.13109 13.11% P(A and B) Therefore, the probability of picking a raspberry candy on the first draw and a blueberry candy on the second is 13.11%. Example 4 A purse contains three K1 coins and five 50 toea coins. Find the probability of choosing first a 50 toea coin and then, without replacing the 50 toea, choosing a K1 second. Solution: This problem shows dependent events since choosing a coin without replacement is done. P(A) is the probability that a K1 coin is chosen on the first draw. Since there are 3 K1 coins, then E = 3 and n = 8 which is the sum total of all the coins in the purse (3 + 5). We can write 3 P(A)= = . NAles P(A) is the probability that a 50t coin is chosen on the second draw. Since there are five 50 toea coins, then E = 5 and n = 7. At this point you might know the reason why n= 7 and not 8. Great if you say that in the second draw n becomes 7 because we no longer count the K1 coin in the first draw. Since the problem suggests that there is no replacement after the first 5 draw, thus making n equal to 7 (8-1). We can write P(B) = 7 Since P(A) and P(B) were already determined, we can now substitute their values in the formula (or simply multiply them) to get the probability of both events. Formula P(A and B) = [P(A)][P(B)] Substitute P(A) and P(8): P(A and 8) = | : \( 3 | (apply the rule in multiplying fractions) 52simplify: P(A and 8) = 2 (Express it in percent by dividing 15 by 56 and multiplying the resulting decimals to 100.) P(A and B) 0.26786 26.79% Therefore, the probability of picking a K1 coin on the first draw and a 50t coin on the second draw is 26.79%. oO Learning Activity 12.3.2.3 Ee) omnes 1) Identify if the events described below are dependent or independent events. a) Rolling a number cube and tossing a coin. b) Tossing three coins simultaneously. c) Choosing three cards consecutively from a standard deck without returning the cards previously drawn. d) Picking a marble and then picking a second marble without replacing the first marble on the box. e) Your teacher chooses students at random to solve a Mathematics problem on the board. She chooses you, and then another student from the remaining students in the class. f) You have to draw 10 coupons from the drop box in a collection of 2 000 coupons. You select a coupon, put it aside, and select another until you complete the 10 oupens before announcing ti ning coupons. s in the i have 3 packet of assorted candies where 30 pieces are ia ies and 20 pieces are orange candies. You take one piece of candy at random from the packet, put it back, and then take a second piece of candy at randomCe G12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY h) Daniel has a blue, red, and green shirt. He also has a blue and green trousers. Daniel chooses a random shirt and trouser to wear. i) Leila plays NRL trading cards. She picks a card at random. Then without putting the first card back, she picks a second card, 2) Solve the following, The table below shows the status of 500 registered grade 12 students from FODE NCD. A student is randomly selected to participate in the course evaluation program. Status a) _ What is the probability that the student is a female regardless of her status? b) What is the probability that a full-time student will be chosen regardless of its gender? 3) Ruru received a bouquet of flowers with 5 red roses and 7 red tulips. What is the probability of picking a red rose randomly from the bouquet? 34Ce fener PROBABILITY 12.3.2.4 Conditional Probability In our previous discussions, we have already developed ways of understanding the probabilities of events. At this poi when certain events occur and other more complex events. it, we will explore ways of modifying those probabil ies In problem number 2 of your Learning Activity 12.3.2.3 on page 47, you used the following table. Gender secs Male Female Full-time student 90 120 Working Student 210 80 It was easy to determine the probability that the student is a female regardless of her status by simply following the formula presented, right? Now, what if you need to determine the probability that the student chosen is a male given that he or she is a working student? How will you solve it? This kind of problem is more than just a case of dependent and independent events. This involves conditional probability. For two events A and B, the probability that A will occur given that B has already ‘occurred is the conditional probability of A given B written as P(A/B) where: P(AMB) P(A/B) P(e) Note that A SB and AN B= . This means that event A is a special case of event B. How do we compute P(A/B)? Since we are given that the student drawn is a male (event A) and he is a working student (event B), we can forget about the females. Thus, all outcomes outside event B (full time students) are also found to be irrelevant. Let us use a Venn diagram to visualize the Male Working Students (ANB) from the group Male Students 35GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY The big circle represents the set of male students while the small circle represents the working students. The part shaded in black is the intersection of A and B which refers to the set of male working students. Everything outside the two circles but within the rectangle represents outcomes involving female and fulltime students. Example 1 A fair die is rolled and the outcomes were recorded. Given that the number rolled was odd, what is the probability that it was a five? Solution: In this case, we will solve for the probability of getting 5 given that getting an odd number has already occurred. So with this we let A represent the event of getting 5 and B represent the event of getting an odd number. This problem involves two events: getting a number 5 and getting an odd number. The probability that the number drawn is 5 will occur given that an odd number has already been drawn suggest that this is an example of a conditional probability. The condition is, an odd number must be drawn first before it will occur that it is a 5. First we identify P(ANB). Since (ANB) = {5} then we say that P(ANB) = = . There is only one odd number which is equivalent to 5 out of the 6 possible outcomes when a die is rolled. Now we identify B = {1, 3, 5}, there are 3 odd numbers out of the six possible outcomes in ae rolling a die, therefore P(B) = —or >. PIANB) Now, using the formula plays) = PAOB) P(e) 1 Substitute the values of P(ANB) and P(B), = = 2 Recall that in dividing fractions, we multiply the a2 2 numerator by the reciprocal of the denominator: 6%. 6G 2 1 - Simplify st 1.333 3 implify = ; Express it in percent by dividing 1 by 3 and multiplying the resulting decimals to 100. = 33.33% Therefore, when a number rolled in a fair die is an odd, the probability that it was a five is 33.33%. 56GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY So now we know that in a conditional probability, the probability of something happening depends on the previous event(s) that had happened. Example 2 Daisy and Donald have two children. What is the probability that their second child is a girl given that at least one of their children is a girl? Solution: In this case we use the assumption that boys (B) and girls (G) are equally likely to be born when a mother conceives. We will solve for the probability of Daisy and Donald having a girl for their second child given that at least one of their children is a girl so it means that it has. occurred already that their first born could be a girl or a boy. So with this we let A represent the event of having a girl for their second child and B represent the event of having at least one of their children is a girl If we will determine all possibilities, Daisy and Donald can have either two boys (BB), a boy and a girl (BG), a girl and a boy (GB) and two girls (GG). So we say our sample space is 4 which refer to the total number of combination possible. First we identify P(AMB). Since (AnB) = {BG, GG} then we say that P(ANB) = z There are ‘two out of four possibilities of having a girl as their second child Now we identify B = {GG, BG, GB}, there are 3 possible outcomes where both children are girls, the first born is a boy and the second born is a girl and the first born is a girl and the 3 second is a boy, therefore P(B) = PAN) Now, using the formula P(A/B) = i ) PB) 2 Substitute the values of P(ANB) and P(B), = + 4 Recall that in dividing fractions, we multiply the pee a numerator by the reciprocal of the denominator: 43 12 Simplify 2. 0.668 sit in gercent by = 66.67% The probability that Daisy and Donald will have a girl on their second child is 66.67%. 76 pee reeranese pom Example 1 and 2 show the use of formula, however, other problems involving the conditional probability can be solved using analysis and the use of diagrams just like the following worked example. Example 3 The probability that Mark will be late for school on Monday is 0.27 based on his usual Monday experiences due to heavy traffic. But if it will rain, less vehicles will travel and the probability goes down to 0.12. According to the news, the probability of rain on Monday is 0.3. What is the probability that Mark will be late on Monday? Solution: We can use a tree diagram to carefully analyze the problem Mark going to school on Monday We know that the probability that a thing is 100% to happen is 1. So if the chance of raining ‘on Monday is 0.3, the probability that it will not rain is 0.7 (1 ~ 0.3). Do you agree? In a similar way, we can say that if it will not rain, Mark has a 0.27 chance of being late and 0.73 (1 -0.27) chance of not being late for school. However, if it rains, his chance of being late is 0.12 and not being late is 0.88 (1-0.12). Now we add those data in the diagram for further analysis. 07 Mark going to school on Monday 03 58GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY Now, we solve Mark's probability of being late by adding the probability of being late when it is not raining and the probability of him being late when it is raining. P(being late) = P (late when not raining) + P(late when raining) = (0.7x0.27) + (0.3x0.12) = 0.189 + 0.036 = 0.225 (express it into per cent by multiplying with 100) = 22.5% Therefore, the probability that Mark will be late on Monday is 22.5%. Mutually exclusive events As we deal with conditional probabilities, we may also encounter events which may or may not happen at the same time. Events are mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes in common. This is the same as saying that these two events cannot happen together at the same time. It is impossible that both could occur in a single trial of an experiment. Their intersection is empty. On the other hand, two events that can happen at the same time are called non-mutually exclusive events. In the die-toss example, given A = {2}, B = {1, 3,5} and C= { 2, 4, 6} and B are mutually exclusive events since A 0 B= while A and C are non-mutually exclusive events AN C= {2). ‘Mutually exclusive events have nothing in common or they cannot occur simultaneously. For instance, you cannot roll a5 and a 6 ona single roll of a die, or land on both heads and tails ina single toss of a coin. Addition vs. Multiplication When looking for the union of mutually exclusive events, the addition of the individual probabilities is used. If events A and 8 are mutually exclusive, then P(A or 8} = PLA) + PIS! 59Co Gk12 MATHEMATICS BUS PROBABILITY It is important that you recognize its other notation because other references use different forms of notations. Example 4 What is the probability of drawing an ace out of an ordinary deck of cards? Solution: Drawing aces is an example of mutually exclusive event. You cannot draw an ace of hearts together with an ace of diamond in a single draw. There are four aces, one for each suit, and each has a probability of 52 In this case if we let A = ace of spades, B = ace of diamonds, € = ace of hearts and D = ace of clubs, Wesaythat: P(AorBorCorD) = —_P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D) ae “52” 525252 4 a = fot 52°" 13 - 1 Therefore, the probability of drawing an ace out of an ordinary deck of cards is |= or 7.69% The general probability formula in the previous lesson can also be used to deal with example 4, However, not all cases of mutually exclusive events can be solved using the general formula, Example 5 What is the probability of drawing a red card or a club card from an ordinary deck of cards? Solution: Drawing a red card or a club card is an example of mutually exclusive events. Clubs are black and they cannot be red so it is impossible that a club card drawn is a red card at the same time. We let P(A) as the probability of drawing a red card. Since there are 13 heart cards and 13 1 diamond cards, therefore P(A) = >=GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY Now, we let P(B) as the probability of drawing a club card. Since there are also 13 club cards, 1 then we say P(B) = —. B We say that: P(Aor B) = P(A) +P(B) = 244 (recall addition of fractions) 26 13 8 26 Therefore, the probability of drawing a red card or a club card from an ordinary deck of cards is > of 11.54% 26 Take note that you will use the addition of probabilities when dealing with union of mutually exclusive events. The key word that you will have to remember is “or”. Multiplication of probabilities is used when dealing with intersection of non-mutually exclusive events. Remember that these events happen at the same time. It follows from the formula for conditional probability that for any events A and B, P(A and B) or P(ANB) = P(B/A) P(A) = P(A/B) P(B) In general, the formula suggests that in order to find the probabilities of successive events, multiply conditional probabilities given the previous events. Example 6 Two cards are chosen at random without replacement from a well-shuffled deck of ordinary cards. What is the probability that they are both queens? Solution: Choosing two queens on a is possible. ts simply saying drawing a quean and a queer ecutive We let P(A} as the probability of drawing a que raw. Since there are 4 queens out of the 52 cards, therefore P(A) =e en 2mamenaneseua cease Now, we let P(B) as the probability of drawing another queen. Since a queen was already 3 51° drawn there are 3 remaining queens out of the 51 remaining cards, then we say P(B) ff Wesaythat: P(AandB) = a\2) (recall multiplication of fractions) \s2) (51, 12 2652 1 Simplify ot Therefore, the probability of drawing two queens is, a or 0.45%. Take note that you will use the multiplication of probabilities when dealing with intersection of non-mutually exclusive events, The key word that you will have to remember is “and”. Always remember the key words. Example, if the problem says “a queen and a king” then it suggests that the multiplication rule is to be used since you will be dealing with the intersection of non-mutually exclusive events. In the case that the problem says “a queen or a king” then it suggests that the addition rule is to be used for most likely, you will be dealing with the union of mutually exclusive events. Revise what you have learnt in this lesson and be ready to answer the following learning exercises. A Learning Activity 12.3.2.4 &) 20 minutes Solve the following problems involving conditional probabil 1. Onthe spinner, what is the probability of spinning an A or a 8? 62GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY 2. Two cards are removed simultaneously from a deck of 48 cards. Calculate the probability of drawing: a. two diamonds b. atleast one diamond c. one diamond and one heart 3. Inyour pocket, you have three 50 toea coins and two 20 toea coins, a. What is the probability of selecting a 50 toea coin? b. What is the probability of selecting a 20 toea coin? c. If you select a 50 toea coin and place it on a table, what is the probability that the coin selected is a dime? 4. If two dice are rolled, what is the probability that the first die shows the number 5? 5. _ Whats the probability of drawing a queen out of an ordinary deck of playing cards? 6. What is the probability of drawing two Aces from a standard deck of playing cards, given that the first card is an Ace? Congratulations! You have reached the end of topic 12.3.2. Spend time revising what you have learnt and proceed to the summative task to further enhance your skill MATIVE TASK 12.3.2 ij 63GR 12 MATHEMATICS B U3 PROBABILITY A SUMMATIVE TASK 12.3.2 (2) minutes Circle the letter of the correct answer. 1) Which of the following shows the sample space (S) when a coin is tossed and a ball is drawn from the jar? S ={HT, AB, CD} 5 ={H, T, A, B, C, D} S$ =HTA, HTB, HTC, HTD} @ 000 S=(HA, HB, HC, HD, TA, TB, TC, TD} poe > 2) Juliana tossed a coin and she got heads on the first toss and tails on the second. What is the experiment in the situation? A. Tossing a coin C. Getting a heads on the first toss B. Getting heads and tails D. Chance of getting heads on the first toss 3) It refers to a collection of outcomes from the sample space which has common characteristics. A. Experiment C Event B. Sample space D. Probability 4) Which of the following is more likely to happen? A. P(A)=0.23 c. 0.072 B. P(B)=0.72 D. 0.032 5) A box contains 30 light bulbs. During shipment and mishandling, 8 of them broke and became defective. What is the probability that person who opens the box will pick a non-defective bulb? A = c= 30 30 3 22 >» 38 8 22 64