Basics of
Inference
Dr. Vinay Kumar
Department of Statistics
Ram Lal Anand College
Lesson Objectives
❑ Know what is Inference
❑ Know what is parameter estimation
❑ Understand hypothesis testing & the
“types of errors” in decision making.
❑ Know what the a-level means.
❑ Learn how to use test statistics to
examine hypothesis about population
mean, proportion
Inference
Use a random sample
to learn something
about a larger
population
Inference
Two ways to make inference
❖ Estimation of parameters
* Point Estimation (X or p)
* Intervals Estimation
❖ Hypothesis Testing
Statistic Parameter
Mean: X estimates ____
Standard
deviation: s estimates ____
Proportion: p estimates ____
from entire
from sample
population
Population Point estimate Interval estimate
I am 95%
Mean confident that
Mean, , is is between 40 &
X = 50
unknown 60
Sample
Parameter
= Statistic ± Its Error
Sampling Distribution
X or P X or P X or P
Standard Error
S
Quantitative Variable SE (Mean) = n
p(1-p)
Qualitative Variable SE (p) = n
Confidence Interval
α/2 α/2
1-α
_
X
SE SE Z-axis
95% Samples
X - 1.96 SE X + 1.96 SE
Confidence Interval
α/2 α/2
1-α
SE SE Z-axis p
95% Samples
p - 1.96 SE p + 1.96 SE
Interpretation of
CI
Probabilistic Practical
In repeated sampling 100(1-a)%
We are 100(1-a)% confident
of all intervals around sample
that the single computed CI
means will in the long run include
contains
Example (Sample size≥30)
An epidemiologist studied the blood glucose
level of a random sample of 100 patients. The
mean was 170, with a SD of 10.
= X + Z SE
SE = 10/10 = 1
95
Then CI: %
= 170 + 1.96 1 168.04 ≥ 171.96
Example (Proportion)
In a survey of 140 asthmatics, 35% had
allergy to house dust. Construct the 95% CI
for the population proportion.
= p + Z P(1-p) SE = 0.35(1-0.35) = 0.04
n 140
0.35 – 1.96 0.04 ≥ 0.35 + 1.96 0.04
0.27 ≥ 0.43
27% ≥ 43%
Hypothesis testing
A statistical method that uses sample
data to evaluate a hypothesis
about a population parameter. It
is intended to help researchers
differentiate between real and
random patterns in the data.
What is a Hypothesis?
I assume the mean SBP of
participants is 120 mmHg
An assumption
about the population
parameter.
Null & Alternative Hypotheses
H0 Null Hypothesis states the Assumption
to be tested e.g. SBP of participants = 120
(H0: = 120).
H1 Alternative Hypothesis is the opposite of
the null hypothesis (SBP of participants ≠ 120
(H1: ≠ 120). It may or may not be accepted
and it is the hypothesis that is believed to
be true by the researcher
Level of Significance, a
Defines unlikely values of sample statistic
if null hypothesis is true. Called rejection
region of sampling distribution
Typical values are 0.01, 0.05
Selected by the Researcher at the Start
Provides the Critical Value(s) of the Test
Level of Significance, a and the Rejection Region
a Critical
Value(s)
Rejection
Regions
0
Result Possibilities
H0: Innocent
Jury Trial Hypothesis Test
Actual Situation Actual Situation
Verdict Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True H0 False
Accept Type II
Innocent Correct Error H0 1-a
Error (b )
Reject Type I
Error Power
Guilty Correct Error
H0 (1 - b)
(a )
False False
Positive Negative
β Factors Increasing
Type II Error
True Value of Population Parameter b d
❖ Increases When Difference Between Hypothesized
Parameter & True Value Decreases
b
Significance Level a
a
❖ Increases When a Decreases
b
Population Standard Deviation
❖ Increases When Increases
Sample Size n b
❖ Increases When n Decreases
n
p Value Test
Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic
More Extreme ( or ) than Actual Sample
Value Given H0 Is True
Called Observed Level of Significance
Used to Make Rejection Decision
❖ If p value a, Do Not Reject H0
❖ If p value < a, Reject H0
Hypothesis Testing: Steps
Test the Assumption that the true mean SBP of
participants is 120 mmHg.
State H0 H0 : = 120
State H1 H1 : 120
Choose a a = 0.05
Choose n n = 100
Choose Test: Z, t, X2 Test (or p Value)
Hypothesis Testing: Steps
Compute Test Statistic (or compute P value)
Search for Critical Value
Make Statistical Decision rule
Express Decision
One sample-mean Test
Assumptions
❖ Population is normally distributed
t test statistic
sample mean − null value x − 0
t= =
standard error s
n
Example Normal Body Temperature
What is normal body temperature? Is it actually
37.6oC (on average)?
State the null and alternative hypotheses
H0: = 37.6oC
Ha: 37.6oC
Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Data: random sample of n = 18 normal body temps
37.2 36.8 38.0 37.6 37.2 36.8 37.4 38.7 37.2
36.4 36.6 37.4 37.0 38.2 37.6 36.1 36.2 37.5
Summarize data with a test statistic
Variable n Mean SD SE t P
Temperature 18 37.22 0.68 0.161 2.38 0.029
sample mean − null value x − 0
t= =
standard error s
n
STUDENT’S t DISTRIBUTION TABLE
Degrees of Probability (p value)
freedom
0.10 0.05 0.01
1 6.314 12.706 63.657
5 2.015 2.571 4.032
10 1.813 2.228 3.169
17 1.740 2.110 2.898
20 1.725 2.086 2.845
24 1.711 2.064 2.797
25 1.708 2.060 2.787
1.645 1.960 2.576
Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Find the p-value
Df = n – 1 = 18 – 1 = 17
From SPSS: p-value = 0.029
From t Table: p-value is
between 0.05 and 0.01. -2.11 +2.11 t
Area to left of t = -2.11 equals area
to right of t = +2.11.
The value t = 2.38 is between
column headings 2.110& 2.898 in
table, and for df =17, the p-values
are 0.05 and 0.01.
Example Normal Body Temp (cont)
Decide whether or not the result is
statistically significant based on the p-value
Using a = 0.05 as the level of significance criterion,
the results are statistically significant because 0.029
is less than 0.05. In other words, we can reject the
null hypothesis.
Report the Conclusion
We can conclude, based on these data, that the mean
temperature in the human population does not equal
37.6.
One-sample test for proportion
Involves categorical variables
Fraction or % of population in a category
Sample proportion (p) X number of successes
p= =
Test is called Z test n sample size
where: p −
Z is computed value Z =
π is proportion in population (1 − )
(null hypothesis value) n
Critical Values: 1.96 at α=0.05
2.58 at α=0.01
Example
• In a survey of diabetics in a large city, it was
found that 100 out of 400 have diabetic foot.
Can we conclude that 20 percent of diabetics in
the sampled population have diabetic foot.
• Test at the a =0.05 significance level.
Solution
0.25 – 0.20
Ho: π = 0.20
Z= 0.20 (1- 0.20) = 2.50
H1: π 0.20
400
Critical Value: 1.96
Decision:
Reject Reject We have sufficient evidence to
.025 .025 reject the Ho value of 20%
We conclude that in the
-1.96 +1.96
population of diabetic the
0 Z proportion who have diabetic foot
does not equal 0.20
