Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 17: Presentations and Presentation Skills (4)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 354 / 365

 Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Previously . . .

34 Slides
Titles
Content
Fonts
Colours
Graphics

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 355 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Today’s questions

1 How should you behave during a presentation?

2 What kind of behaviour should you avoid during a presentation?

Consider
Stance
Hands
Eye contact
Voice

(12 minutes group discussion)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 356 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking Stance Hands Eye Contact Voice

Gesture and Body Language: Stance and Movement

Be aware where you stand (centre stage vs side stage)

Do not obscure the screen
Stand tall, keep your head up most of the time
Move from stillness to stillness, walk slowly

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 357 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking Stance Hands Eye Contact Voice

Gesture and Body Language: Hands

Use hand gestures to emphasise points

Use open palm gestures, full arm gestures
Avoid aggressive gestures
Avoid hands in pockets, hands behind your back,
hands clasped in front of your body

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 358 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking Stance Hands Eye Contact Voice

Gesture and Body Language: Eye Contact

Maintain eye contact

lighthouse beam
treat everyone equal
do not look out of the window or on your watch
do not focus too long on a single individual

Keep an eye on the audience’s body language

does a point need further clarification?
can you proceed more quickly than anticipated?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 359 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking Stance Hands Eye Contact Voice

Gesture and Body Language: Voice

Be aware of the acoustics of the room

Speak clearly (do not shout or whisper)
Pause shortly at key points (adds emphasis)
Emphasise the right words, control your breathing
Facial gestures and tone of voice should match your message
Do not rush, or talk deliberately slowly, but vary speed
Do not talk to the screen
Do not turn your back to the audience and talk at the same time
Do not read from a script (cue cards are ok)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 360 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Seven Principles of Public Speaking

(Isa N. Engleberg: The Principles of Public Presentation.

Harper Collins, New York, 1994)
Purpose: Why are you speaking?
What do you want audience members to know, think,
believe, or do as a result of your presentation?
People: Who is your audience?
How do the characteristics, skills, opinions, and behaviours
of your audience affect your purpose?
Place: How can you plan and adapt to the logistics of this place?
How can you use visual aids to help you achieve your
purpose?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 361 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Seven Principles of Public Speaking

(Isa N. Engleberg: The Principles of Public Presentation.

Harper Collins, New York, 1994)
Preparation: Where and how can you find good ideas and information
for your speech?
How much and what kind of supporting materials do you
need?
Planning: Is there a natural order to the ideas and information you
will use?
What are the most effective ways to organise your speech
in order to adapt it to the purpose, people, place, etc.?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 362 / 365

Gesture and Body Language Principles of Public Speaking

Seven Principles of Public Speaking

(Isa N. Engleberg: The Principles of Public Presentation.

Harper Collins, New York, 1994)
Personality: How do you become associated with your message
in a positive way?
What can you do to demonstrate your competence,
charisma, and character to the audience?
Performance: What form of delivery is best suited to the purpose of
your speech?
What delivery techniques will make your presentation
more effective?
How should you practice?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 363 / 365

 Choosing a project

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 18: Choosing or proposing a project (1)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 370 / 377

 Choosing a project

Previously . . .

35 Gesture and Body Language

Stance
Hands
Eye Contact
Voice

36 Principles of Public Speaking

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 371 / 377

 Choosing a project

Topics

37 Choosing a project
Sources of information
Criteria
Suitability criteria

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 372 / 377

 Choosing a project

Today’s questions

1 What sources of information could be used to devise a

research-oriented project?
2 Given a collection of proposals for research-oriented projects, what
criteria could you use to select the most suitable one?

(10 minutes group discussion)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 373 / 377

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Sources of information

Proposals by academic staff or departments

Past projects
Brainstorming
Your own goals and learning objectives
Reading about / working in the subject area
Systematic analysis of the subject area
Research Territory Maps
Show how topics related to each other
Relevance Trees
Break down a particular subject or research question into lower and lower
levels of detail
Spider Diagrams
Combines features of Research Territory Maps with those of Relevance Trees

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 374 / 377

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Research Territory Maps: Example

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 375 / 377

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Relevance Trees: Example

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 376 / 377

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Spider Diagrams: Example

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 377 / 377

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Choosing a project

The project needs to be within your capabilities

The project needs to have sufficient scope
The project needs to interest you
The project needs to have a serious purpose
The project needs to have a clear outcome
The project needs to be related to your degree programme
The resources required for the project are available or can be obtained

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 378 / 393

 Choosing a project Sources of information Criteria Suitability criteria

Suitability tests for projects

‘So what?’ test

Is the topic meaningful?
Will it be of value for anyone?
What contribution will it make?
Justification
Can you explain your project and justify it in simple terms?
Estimating your understanding
Can you put a figure on what you know about your chosen subject?
Contacts
Are the contacts you require for your project (including your supervisor)
available, accessible, and willing to help?
Project proposal
Can you write a substantive proposal for your project?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 379 / 393

Introduction Project definition Project planning

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 19: Choosing or proposing a project (2)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 386 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Previously . . .

37 Choosing a project
Sources of information
Criteria
Suitability criteria

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 387 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Today’s questions

Take the project proposal you were given last week as a reference to
answer the following two questions:
1 What is the (implicit) content of a project proposal?
What kind of questions does it need to address?
2 What is the explicit structure of a project proposal?
What sections/parts are there? What is their purpose?

(10 minutes group discussion)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 388 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Preparing a project proposal: Implicit Content

Introduction to the subject area

Sets the context for the project
Should motivate the relevance of the subject area
Overview of current research in the area
Demonstrates current activities in the subject area
Shows your understanding of current research
Identify a gap
Identify a need for further investigation or re-interpretation
Identify how your work fills the gap
Explain how your project fills the gap
Identify risks and solutions
Highlight the benefits that can be derived from your project
Account for the risks to your project

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 389 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Preparing a project proposal: Explicit Structure (1)

Title
Clear, Concise, Preferably no acronyms
Aims and Objectives
Aims: Broad statement(s) of intent
Identify the project’s purpose
Objectives: Identify specific, measurable achievements
Quantitative and qualitative measures by which completion
of the project can be judged
Expected outcomes/deliverables
Identify what will be produced/submitted in the project
Keywords
Identify the topic areas that the project draws on

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 390 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Preparing a project proposal: Explicit Structure (2)

Introduction/Background/Overview
Overview of the project (Identification of research questions and hypotheses,
elaboration of aims)
Motivation for the project
Motivation for you conducting the project
Related Research
Identifies other work, publications, and related to the same/similar topic
Methods
Identifies the research methods and project methods that will be used
(e.g. theoretical investigation, case study)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 391 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Preparing a project proposal: Explicit Structure (3)

Research Requirements
Identifies the resources that will be needed for the project (e.g.
hardware, software, data, personnel)
Project Plan
More or less detailed ‘timetable’ for the project
Deadlines for deliverables

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 392 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Today’s questions

Consider the proposal for an academic project

taken from (Dawson 2005, p. 50).
1 What is wrong with it?
2 How could it be improved?

(10 minutes group discussion)

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 393 / 393

 Introduction Project definition Project planning

Conclusion

Choosing the right project is an important stage in any project

There are a number of techniques that can assist you with choosing the
right project
In a project proposal or project specification
stick to the required structure and
address all the guiding questions as precisely as possible

Further reading:
Sharp et al. (2002) proposes five questions that might help you to choose
a project supervisor; see (Dawson 2005; p. 52).

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 394 / 410

 Project planning

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 20: Project planning (1)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 402 / 410

 Project planning

Previously . . .

38 Project proposals
Implicit content
Explicit structure
Reviewing your proposal

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 403 / 410

 Project planning

Topics

42 Project planning
Time estimates
Milestones
Activity sequencing

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 404 / 410

 Project planning

Overview

All projects consume resources including time and money

in order to deliver a product of a particular scope and quality
There is always a tension between the extent of resource input and the
extend of product output
There is also tension between project management activities and project
development activities

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 405 / 410

 Project planning

Main project activities

Project management
Concerned with
planning the conduct of the project
controlling and checking project progress
monitoring milestones and deliverables
managing risk
Should account for not more than 10% of overall effort
; not evenly distributed; spend most of it towards the start!
‘Product’ development
Concerned with
achieving the aims and objectives of the project
producing the deliverables in accordance with the project plan
optimising scope and quality of the deliverables relative to the
resources available

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 406 / 410

 Project planning

Project stages

From a project management perspective, projects proceed in five stages:

1 Definition
Deciding on a project; making a project proposal
2 Planning
Detailed planning of the project
3 Initiation
Organising work (in particular, group work); literature survey
4 Control
Monitoring the progress of the project
5 Closure
Delivering/deploying result of the project; preparing final presentation;
writing up reports

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 407 / 410

 Project planning

Project definition: Aims and Objectives (1)

Clear specification of what the project is to achieve

; definition of aims and objectives
Aims: Broad statement(s) of intent
Identify the project’s purpose
Examples:
Design a methodology for GUI development of technical courseware
material
Develop and evaluate an Artificial Neural Network to predict stock
market indices

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 408 / 410

 Project planning

Project definition: Aims and Objectives (2)

Clear specification of what the project is to achieve

; definition of aims and objectives
Example aim:
Develop and evaluate an Artificial Neural Network to predict stock
market indices
Objectives: Identify specific, measurable achievements
Quantitative and qualitative measures by which completion of
the project can be judged
Example:
1 Complete a literature search and literature review of existing stock
market prediction techniques
2 Develop a suitable Artificial Neural Network model
3 Identify and collect suitable data for analyses and evaluation
4 Evaluate the model using appropriate statistical techniques
5 Complete final report
Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 409 / 410
 Project planning

Project definition: SMART objectives

Each objective should be

Specific
Measurable
Appropriate
Realistic
Time-related
Example:
1 Complete a literature search and literature review of existing stock
market prediction techniques

Is it specific? Does it tells us what will be done?

Is it measurable? How will we know to what extend and to what quality
the objective has been completed?
Is it appropriate? Does is related to and in support of our aims?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 410 / 410

 Project planning

Project definition: SMART objectives

Each objective should be

Specific
Measurable
Appropriate
Realistic
Time-related
Example:
1 Complete a literature search and literature review of existing stock
market prediction techniques
Is it realistic? Can we realistically expect to achieve this objective?
Is it time-related? Have we identified how long the task will take and
when we will complete it?

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 411 / 426

 Project planning

Project planning

Objectives of project planning

Identifying the tasks that need to be done
Clarifying the order in which tasks need to be done
Determining how long each task will take
(Redefining the project if there are problems)

Steps of project planning

1 Work breakdown
2 Time estimates
3 Milestone identification
4 Activity sequencing
5 Scheduling
6 Replanning

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 412 / 426

 Project planning

Work breakdown (1)

First step of project planning: Identifying the tasks that need to be done
Starting point(s) should be the objectives of the project;
Then break your objectives down into lower and lower levels of detail
Work breakdown structures are used to visualise the process of breaking
down the project

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 413 / 426

 Project planning

Work breakdown (2)

Tasks at all levels need to be separate from one another

Continue to break down your project into smaller tasks until each task
takes up no less than 5% of the total effort

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 414 / 426

 Project planning

Time estimates

Make reasonably accurate predictions of

the effort needed for completion and
the duration until completion
of each leaf node of the work breakdown structure
If the estimate exceeds the total time available for the project, then
either modify the objectives and work breakdown or reduce and
reallocate time between tasks

Activity Effort Duration

Literature search 2 weeks 8 weeks
Literature review 2 weeks 4 weeks
Investigate and evaluate ANNs 2 weeks 4 weeks
Design ANN 2 weeks 4 weeks
Develop and test ANN 2 weeks 2 weeks
Get stock market data 1 week 1 week
Train ANN 1 week 1 week
Use stock market models 1 week 2 weeks
Review statistical tests 1 week 2 weeks
Analyse and evaluate 4 weeks 4 weeks
Complete report 8 weeks 8 weeks
Total 26 weeks 40 weeks

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 415 / 426

 Project planning

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 20: Project planning (2)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 375 / 376

 Project planning

Previously . . .
36 Introduction
37 Project definition
Aims and objectives
38 Project planning
Steps
Work breakdown
Time estimates
Steps of project planning
1 Work breakdown
2 Time estimates
3 Milestone identification
4 Activity sequencing
5 Scheduling
6 Replanning

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 376 / 376

 Project planning

Topics

39 Project planning
Time estimates
Milestones
Activity sequencing

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 377 / 388

 Project planning

Running example

Example aim:
Develop and evaluate an Artificial Neural Network to predict stock
market indices
Example objectives:
1 Complete a literature search and literature review of existing stock
market prediction techniques
2 Develop a suitable Artificial Neural Network model
3 Identify and collect suitable data for analyses and evaluation
4 Evaluate the model using appropriate statistical techniques
5 Complete final report

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 378 / 388

 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Time estimates

Make reasonably accurate predictions of

the effort needed for completion and
the duration until completion
of each leaf node of the work breakdown structure
If the estimate exceeds the total time available for the project, then
either modify the objectives and work breakdown or reduce and
reallocate time between tasks

Activity Effort Duration

Literature search 2 weeks 8 weeks
Literature review 2 weeks 4 weeks
Investigate and evaluate ANNs 2 weeks 4 weeks
Design ANN 2 weeks 4 weeks
Develop and test ANN 2 weeks 2 weeks
Get stock market data 1 week 1 week
Train ANN 1 week 1 week
Use stock market models 1 week 2 weeks
Review statistical tests 1 week 2 weeks
Analyse and evaluate 4 weeks 4 weeks
Complete report 8 weeks 8 weeks
Total 26 weeks 40 weeks

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 379 / 388

 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Milestone identification

Milestones are significant steps towards the completion of the project

intermediate goals at which to aim

M1 Completion of literature review

(M2 Completion of ANN development)
(M3 Completion of evaluation)
M4 Completion of project/report

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 380 / 388

 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Activity sequencing

The work breakdown structure does not state in which order tasks are
performed

To represent the order and inter-dependency of tasks we can use activity

networks
Activity-on-the-node diagrams
Activity-on-the-arrow diagrams

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 381 / 388

 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Activity-on-the-node diagrams
Tasks are represented by rectangular nodes
Milestones are represented by diamond-shape nodes
Arrows indicate the order in which they need to be performed
Example:

Task A has to be completed before tasks B and C can start

Task B and C can be done independently (in parallel)
Task D can only start once both tasks B and C have been completed
Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 382 / 388
 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Activity-on-the-node diagrams: Start and end dates

Assume we estimate effort and duration for the four tasks as follows
Activity Effort Duration
Task A 2 weeks 4 weeks
Task B 3 weeks 4 weeks
Task C 2 weeks 4 weeks
Task D 2 weeks 3 weeks
Also assume
the project starts on 1 January
each month has four weeks
there are no breaks, holidays, etc
What is the start date for each of the tasks?
Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 383 / 388
 Project planning Time Milestones Order

Activity-on-the-node diagrams: Critical path

Critical path: Longest-duration path through a network

identifies the tasks in the project that must not be delayed
Determination of critical paths:
Work backwards from the end to the start
As long as there is only one preceding task, this task must be on the critical
path
If there is more than one preceding tasks, only the task(s) which force the
start time of the next task are on the critical path
there can be more than one critical path

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 384 / 388

Developing an activity diagram Project planning

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 22: Project planning (3)

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 435 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning

Previously . . .

42 Project planning
Time estimates
Milestones
Activity sequencing

Steps of project planning

1 Work breakdown
2 Time estimates
3 Milestone identification
4 Activity sequencing
5 Scheduling
6 Replanning

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 436 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning

Topics

43 Developing an activity diagram

44 Project planning
Problems with ADs
Scheduling
Replanning
Rolling wave planning

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 437 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning

Group work

Working in groups, construct an activity-on-the-node diagram for the

example stock market project based on our example project
Activity Effort Duration
1 Literature search 2 weeks 8 weeks
2 Literature review 2 weeks 4 weeks
3 Investigate and evaluate ANNs 2 weeks 4 weeks
4 Design ANN 2 weeks 4 weeks
5 Develop and test ANN 2 weeks 2 weeks
6 Get stock market data 1 week 1 week
7 Train ANN 1 week 1 week
8 Use stock market models 1 week 2 weeks
9 Review statistical tests 1 week 2 weeks
10 Analyse and evaluate 4 weeks 4 weeks
11 Complete report 8 weeks 8 weeks
Total 26 weeks 40 weeks

Dependencies
2→1 7→5→4→3 8→6
11 → 10 → 9 → 8 9→7→6 8→2

Milestones
M1 Completion of literature review
M4 Completion of project/report

Determine start dates for each task

Determine the critical path(s) for this project

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 438 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning

Solution

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 439 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning Problems with ADs Scheduling Replanning Rolling wave plann

Problems with activity diagrams

Correctness of activity diagrams is difficult to check

Example:
Activity Effort Duration
Task A 1 week 4 weeks
Task B 1 week 4 weeks

Question: Can tasks A and B done in parallel and both be finished

within 4 weeks?
Answer: Information is insufficient to tell
Do not allow to express distribution of effort within a task
Do not reflect the duration/effort of each task well (all nodes are of
equal size)
Do not allow to indicate slack
Simplistic view of activities/tasks: No loops, no conditions

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 440 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning Problems with ADs Scheduling Replanning Rolling wave plann

Scheduling

Activity Effort Duration Gantt Chart

Literature search 2 weeks 8 weeks
Literature review 2 weeks 4 weeks
Investigate and evaluate ANNs 2 weeks 4 weeks
Design ANN 2 weeks 4 weeks
Develop and test ANN 2 weeks 2 weeks
Get stock market data 1 week 1 week
Train ANN 1 week 1 week
Use stock market models 1 week 2 weeks
Review statistical tests 1 week 2 weeks
Analyse and evaluate 4 weeks 4 weeks
Complete report 8 weeks 8 weeks
Total 26 weeks 40 weeks

- Activities are represented by rectangles

- Milestones are represented by diamonds
- Size indicates duration relative to the timeline
- Shaded areas indicate slack

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 441 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning Problems with ADs Scheduling Replanning Rolling wave plann

MS Project Gantt Chart

MS Project allows to represent the hierarchy of the work breakdown

structure
MS Project allows to represent activities and milestones (in the
expected way)
MS Project does not allow to represent slack
MS Project does not allow to represent interdependencies across
high-level tasks
Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 442 / 450
 Developing an activity diagram Project planning Problems with ADs Scheduling Replanning Rolling wave plann

Replanning

Needs to be done if you try to achieve too much in too little time
Approach:
Iterate the following steps until you get a correct schedule
Rethink the interdependencies between activities
Redo estimates for effort and duration of each tasks
Reschedule tasks
Rethink the aims and objectives of your project
Redo work breakdown structure
No plan is perfect; no plan is set in stone

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 443 / 450

 Developing an activity diagram Project planning Problems with ADs Scheduling Replanning Rolling wave plann

Rolling wave planning

Phased iterative approach to project planning

; fits well for incremental development
Approach:
1 Define planning packages for your project with
resource requirements
macro level deliverables
macro level dependencies
2 Execute the following loop
1 Determine which planning package has to be done next (first)
2 Make a detailed plan for this planning package
3 Execute the plan
4 Re-adjust the remaining planning packages based on what happened

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 444 / 450

Risk management Project planning: Summary

Research Methods in Computer Science

Lecture 23: Risk management

Ullrich Hustadt

Department of Computer Science

University of Liverpool

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 451 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary

Previously . . .

43 Developing an activity diagram

44 Project planning
Problems with ADs
Scheduling
Replanning
Rolling wave planning
Steps of project planning
1 Work breakdown
2 Time estimates
3 Milestone identification
4 Activity sequencing
5 Scheduling
6 Replanning

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 452 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary

Topics

45 Risk management
Introduction
Identify risks
Assess impact of risks
Alleviate critical risks
Control risks

46 Project planning: Summary

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 453 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Risk management: Introduction

Risk management
involves the identification of risks at the project’s outset
control of those risks as the project progresses
; risk management process

Four main stages of the risk management process

1 Identify risks
2 Assess impact of risks
3 Alleviate critical risks
4 Control risks

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 454 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Identifying risks: Types of risk

Event-driven Evolving
Technical Project requirements Project beyond your
change; technical capability;
Hard disk crashing Problem dependent
on developing a
complex algorithm
Non-Technical Supervisor leaving; Underestimating
Illness effort required for a
task; Literature not
arriving on time

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 455 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Identifying risks

Risk triggers (risk symptoms)

Events happening during the course of a project that might indicate
problems or that one of the identified risks is increasingly likely to occur

Examples:
Missing preliminary milestones in your project
Struggling with a straightforward implementation of a component
Problems with arranging a meeting a client

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 456 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Assessing the impact of risks (1)

Risk impact = Likelihood × Consequence

Example: Severe earthquakes in Britain

Likelihood is low
Residential building → Consequences are low
Nuclear power plant → Consequences are catastrophic
; Nuclear power plants are earthquake proof,
residential buildings are not

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 457 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Assessing the impact of risks (2)

1 Assess each risk according to the following scales:

Risk Likelihood Score Risk Consequence Score

Low 1 Very low 1
Medium 2 Low 2
High 3 Medium 3
High 4
Very high 5

2 Compute risk impact for each risk using the formula

Risk impact = Likelihood × Consequence

3 Rank all risks according to their risk impact

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 458 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Assessing the impact of risks (3)

4 Determine critical risks
(a) 80/20 rule:
20% of your risks cause 80% of your problems
; 20% top ranking risks are critical

(b) RAG grading:

Red Risks with impact greater than 10
; critical risks
Amber Risks with impact between 6 and 10
; deserve some attention
Green Risks with impact smaller than 6
; can be ignored

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 459 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Alleviating critical risks (1)

Contingency
Accepting that the risk is going to occur and putting something in place
to deal with it when it does

Examples:
- Hard disk crash → have a backup
- Time over-run → allow slack for each task

Deflection
Passing the risk on to someone or something else

Example:
- Required software → use of existing software instead of
developing it yourself

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 460 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Alleviating critical risks (2)

Avoidance
Reducing the likelihood that the risk will occur at all

Examples:
- Use of programming languages
→ use one that you know instead of one that you don’t
- Development of a complex algorithm
→ modify an existing algorithm

Ullrich Hustadt Research Methods in Computer Science 461 / 466

 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Risk assessment report

Project: Introduction of IT-assisted teaching at a college
Risk Likeli- Conse- Risk management Risk symptoms
hood quence approach
Infrastructure
IT infrastructure Med(2) High(4) Equip sufficiently and Speed of equipment
cannot cope with involve IT Dept response
requirements
Data projector fail- Low(1) Very Have a stand-by data None
ing during teaching High(5) projector
Staff
Lack of commit- Med(2) High(4) Clear communication Non- or variable at-
ment by staff plan; staff development tendance of events
events
Loss of key staff Med(2) Med(3) Succession planning; Notice period / Re-
critical procedures quest to attend in-
should be documented terview
in a manual
Delivery
Staff not available High(3) High(4) Flexible delivery and Timetables
at times training is session on different days
delivered and at different times

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 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Controlling risks

Planning a risk strategy

How will you go about managing/controlling the risks identified?
E.g. how and when would you notice a time over-run?
Checkpoints: Checking critical risks
at regular intervals (e.g. weekly)
at the end of particular project stages
at meetings with your supervisor

How and when will you check the risk triggers identified?
How and when will you invoke your contingency plans?
How and when will you update your critical risk list?
Risk likelihood and risk consequences change over time

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 Risk management Project planning: Summary Introduction Identify Assess Alleviate Control

Today’s question

Consider our running example, that is, the project with the aim to
Develop and evaluate an Artificial Neural Network to predict stock
market indices
which is conducted by undertaking the following tasks

Activity Effort Duration

Literature search 2 weeks 8 weeks
Literature review 2 weeks 4 weeks
Investigate and evaluate ANNs 2 weeks 4 weeks
Design ANN 2 weeks 4 weeks
Develop and test ANN 2 weeks 2 weeks
Get stock market data 1 week 1 week
Train ANN 1 week 1 week
Use stock market models 1 week 2 weeks
Review statistical tests 1 week 2 weeks
Analyse and evaluate 4 weeks 4 weeks
Complete report 8 weeks 8 weeks
Total 26 weeks 40 weeks

What might a risk assessment report look like for this project?
(10 minutes group discussion)

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 Risk management Project planning: Summary

Project planning: Summary

Project planning consists of two stages:
1 Defining what it is you want to achieve
2 Planning how you will achieve it
Project planning proceeds in six steps
1 Work breakdown
2 Time estimates
3 Milestone identification
4 Activity sequencing
5 Scheduling
6 Replanning
Risk management is performed in parallel with project management and
involves four stages:
1 Risk identification
2 Risk quantification
3 Risk alleviation
4 Risk control
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