Nawaz Sharif Era
2013 - 2017
Presented by: Alysaad Hassan
State of economy in 2013
• Average GDP growth during the period 2008-12 was 2.8% per annum
• Collapsed economy
• Average inflation rate was 12% (8.3% in 2012-2013)
• High fiscal deficit of 8.5% of GDP
• Foreign exchange reserves were at historical low
• SBP gross reserves dropped to US 6 Billion (under 1.5 months of import bills as of june
2013)
• Protracted energy crisis (12-18 hours of electricity load shedding in urban and rural
areas)
• Widespread terrorism
• Corruption resulting from bad governance (underperformance in tax collections in the
previous fiscal year, inadequate tax administration)
• National morale was at the lowest
• Output losses estimated at 2% of GDP annually
Highlight reel of Nawaz Sharif’s era
• CPEC
• Many delayed projects were completed
• Amendment to Women Protection Bill
• Pak-Qatar $16 Billion LNG import deal
• Easter, Holi & Diwali were declared official public holidays
• Hanged Mumtaz Qadri
• Auction of 3G & 4G spectrum licenses
• Prime Minister's Youth Programme
• IMF loan $6.64 Billion
• Privatization of 5 state owned entities out of 30 demanded by IMF
• Curb terrorism (Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Operation Rad-ul-Fasaad, Biometric)
• Panama leak
• Negotiated Free Trade Agreements with Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Thailand and
South Korea
Growth and Investment
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
- Average GDP growth during
5.53%
6.00%
the period 2008-12 was 2.8%
5.00%
5.00% 4.56% per annum
4.05% 4.06%
3.68%
4.00%
- Average GDP growth during
3.00% the period 2013-17 was 4.64%
per annum
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Growth and Investment
MANUFACTURING SECTOR
7.00% - During FY 2018, Large Scale
5.65%
5.83% Manufacturing (LSM) recorded an
6.00% 5.43%
4.85%
impressive growth of 6.13 percent
5.00% which is the highest in eleven years.
3.88%
3.69%
4.00%
- Overall industrial sector growth
3.00%
improved by 5.8 percent which is
2.00%
highest in ten years.
1.00%
0.00%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Growth and Investment
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
4.50%
- RS 341 Billion relied for farmers under Prime
4.00%
Ministers' Kissan package
4.00%
3.50%
2.68%
- Highest growth in 13 years of 4 % in Fy 2018.
3.00%
2.50%
2.50% 2.13% 2.18%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50% 0.15%
0.00%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Growth and Investment
- ICT Policy
SERVICE SECTOR
7.00% 6.47% 6.35% - Focusing on the software exports and
6.00%
5.72%
outsourcing.
5.13%
5.00% 4.46% 4.36%
- Encourage software companies in small cities
4.00%
3.00% - Interest free financing for deals such as
2.00%
mergers, acquisition and joint venture with
foreign companies
1.00%
0.00% - Provide incentives for certifications such as
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
ISO
- Expansion of broadband and web-hosting
infrastructure within the country
Trade & Payments
80,000 - Exports gone down by 5.1 % in comparison to
60,795 FY 2013
60,000 52,910
44,950 45,073 45,826 44,685
40,000
- Imports gone up by 35.25% in comparison to
24,460 25,110 23,667 20,787 20,422
23,212 FY 2013.
20,000
- Trade deficit gone up by 83.4% in comparison
-
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 to fy 2013.
(20,000)
(20,490) (19,963) (22,159)
(23,898)
- Remittance average growth rate has been 7.7%
(40,000) (32,488)
(37,583) during the rule of PML-N.
(60,000)
Imports (in Million US $) Exports (in Million US $) Balance of trade (in Million US $) - Current account deficit widened to US$ 3.1
billion in FY2013-14 to US$ 19.89 billion in
FY2017-18 depicting the increase of US$ 16.8
billion. CAD was highest by 6.3 percent in
FY2017-18 as a percentage of GDP.
Fiscal Framework
FISCAL DEVELOPMENT
TAX REVENUE
25.00% 4500 25%
4000
20.00%
3500 20%
15.00%
3000
15%
10.00% 2500
2000
5.00% 10%
1500
0.00% 1000
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 5%
-5.00% 500
-5.50% -5.30% -4.60%
-5.90% -6.50% 0 0%
-10.00% -8.20% FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Govt Expenditure as % of GDP Govt Revenue as % of GDP Fiscal Deficit Tax Revenue ( in Billion Rupees) % Increase
- Increased indirect taxes (composition stayed the same, tax net not broadened)
- Increased spending on curbing terrorism
Monetary Policy
INFLATION
10.00%
8.62%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
7.36%
6.00%
4.53%
5.00% 4.16%
4.00%
3.92%
3.00%
2.00% 2.86%
1.00%
0.00%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
- Expansionary monetary policy
- Interest rate to a low of 6%
Conclusion
Successes: Drawbacks:
- High economic growth - No substantial growth in exports
- Inflation at a level to facilitate growth - Inflated current account deficit
- Improvement in law and order situation
- No change in the tax net
- Substantial reduction in fiscal deficit
- Low interest rate promoting growth in most sectors
- Improvement in health, judiciary and education
were not a priority
- Infrastructure development
- Reduction in energy crises
- Many mega projects initiated
