HR Forecasting Exercise
Instructions
This is a Working Group Exercise
Only correct answers are not important, how you arrived at result (the process) is more critical.
You need to show and explain (in Word Doc) the rationale, formula used for your answers.
Randomly, groups will be asked to present and explain their forecasting tables.
Exercise
You have been given the assignment of forecasting the human resource needs of the National Bank and Trust
Company which currently employs approximately 1,100 people. The bank presently has 50 branch offices located
throughout the metropolitan area, each of which employs approximately 14 individuals. The bank expects to add
38 branches during the next three years. Branches within the bank differ considerably in size, so the figures given
represent averages.
During the past month, the bank has placed an order for 30 automated teller machines to be placed in its former
branch offices. These machines are scheduled to be in operation December 31, one year from now. The bank has
found that for each new machine purchased, one less teller is needed, on average. A breakdown of the bank’s
current staffing is shown in Table 2.1.
The bank has asked you to perform three human resource forecasting tasks. First, based on the assumptions given
below, you are required to determine employee turnover for the main office, the former branches, and the new
branches. Your boss would like to know this information for each of the next three years and for each of the major
personnel categories (i.e., supervisors, tellers/clerical, and main office). Your job is to complete Table 2.2. Second,
your boss would like to know the number of new employees the bank will need to hire for each major personnel
category for each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 2.3.
Finally, your boss would like to know the total number of employees who will be working for the bank as of the
end of each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 2.4. In order to complete your assignment, your
boss has told you to make a number of assumptions. They are:
A. You are making all projections in December for subsequent years ending December 31.
B. With regard to former branches, assume
1. The 50 former branches employ four supervisors and ten clerical personnel/tellers each.
2. On December 31 (one year hence), 30 teller machines are placed in operation and
replace 30 tellers.
3. The bank does not terminate any employees because of the new teller machines. Rather, as tellers quit
throughout the year, 30 are not replaced.
4. Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.
C. With regard to new branches, assume
1. New branches are added as follows: 10 in Year 1, 12 in Year 2, and 16 in Year 3.
2. Each new branch employs 14 individuals (four supervisors and ten tellers/clerical).
3. New branches are added evenly throughout the year. Thus, for the purpose of calculating turnover, on
average, there are five new branches in Year 1 (50% 10); 16 in Year 2 [10 in Year 1 plus 6 (50% 12)]; and 30 in
Year 3 [22 plus 8 (50% 16)].
4. Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.
D. With regard to the main office, assume that turnover will be 10 percent per year.
Table 2.1 Present Staffing
Total Employees 1,100
Number of Branches 50
Supervisors per Branch 4
Number of Supervisors 200
Tellers per Branch 10
Number of Tellers 500
Branch Employees 700
Main Office Employees 400
Table 2.2 Turnover
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Former Branch Supervisors 40 44 57
Former Branch Tellers 141 156 204
Main Office 40 40 40
New Branch Supervisors 4 13 24
New Branch Tellers 15 48 90
Table 2.3 Number of Employees to be Hired
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Former Branch Supervisors 40 44 57
Former Branch Tellers 141 156 204
Main Office 40 40 40
New Branch Supervisors 4 13 24
New Branch Tellers 15 48 90
Totals 240 301 415
Table 2.4 Year-End Employment
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Former Branch Supervisors 200 220 284
Former Branch Tellers 470 520 680
Main Office 400 400 400
New Branch Supervisors 20 64 120
New Branch Tellers 50 160 300
Totals 1140 1364 1784
