Thematic Research: Technology GDTMT-TR-R269

COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has now spread around the world, leaving a trail of
destruction in its wake. This report discusses the impact of the virus on leading Inside
companies in the telecom services sector.
 Theme map
COVID-19 turns telecom operators into multi-utilities  Sector impact
National telecom operators have had to juggle several roles to provide support  Sector scorecard
to governments and customers during the COVID-19 crisis. They have been  Thematic briefing
giving subscribers extra data and speed boosts to make the stay-at-home  Thematic methodology
experience more bearable. They have also been expected to provide extra
capacity, set up emergency teams to maintain network quality for critical use
cases, and provide insight into peoples’ movements in COVID-19-affected
areas.
COVID-19 is turning operators into multi-utilities, providing a service (internet
connectivity) that is now as important to the public as electricity, gas, water,
or sewage, whilst simultaneously serving national security interests. The
challenge for operators is to balance this new role against their current go-to-
market and competitive profiles in the age of COVID-19, and beyond.
Related reports
That’s particularly the case with 5G. Operators want to push ahead with the  TMT Trends 2020 -
roll-out and new handset sales, but labor shortages and restrictions on public updated for COVID-19
gatherings make it difficult for workers to install and activate equipment. 5G
roll out is also being hampered by delays to both European spectrum auctions
and approval of the permissions needed from land or building owners to install
5G infrastructure, such as masts. The deteriorating economic situation will
cause new 5G handset sales to dip.
In challenging times, partnerships are particularly important
The post-COVID-19 landscape will see more strategic partnerships, with
many operators working with companies to adopt a complementary approach
in difficult economic times. A strong partnership approach was already
emerging around edge computing. This will gather pace in a post-COVID-19
world, with telecoms network operators, cloud service providers, and
hardware and software vendors all working more closely together. COVID-19
will also drive some industry digital transformation, with telecoms providers
playing a lead role.
Winners
There will be no winners in the next year, but these companies are best
positioned for a fast recovery:
 Deutsche Telekom, SK Telecom, China Telecom, Telefonica, Report type
Vodafone, AT&T.  Single theme
 Multi-theme
Losers  Sector Scorecard
 Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), mobile-only or fixed-only
players, and telecom operators yet to invest in artificial intelligence
(AI), digitize their business, or develop an innovation pipeline.
[email protected] www.globaldata.com
+44 (0) 207 406 6764

© GlobalData 2020
GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Contents

COVID-19 IS NOW A MAJOR THEME FOR 2020 ....................................................................................................................... 3

COVID-19 IMPACT ON TELECOM SERVICES ............................................................................................................................. 4

TELECOM SERVICES SECTOR SCORECARD ............................................................................................................................... 6

Who’s who ........................................................................................................................................................6
Thematic screen ...............................................................................................................................................7
Valuation screen ...............................................................................................................................................8
Risk screen .......................................................................................................................................................9

THEMATIC BRIEFING .....................................................................................................................................................................10

What is COVID-19? ....................................................................................................................................... 10

APPENDIX: OUR THEMATIC RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................11

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

COVID-19 is now a major theme for 2020

We define a theme as any issue that keeps CEOs awake at night.
COVID-19 easily fits that description, so we have added it to our 2020 theme map for the tech, media, and
telecoms (TMT) sector.
Viewing the world’s data by themes helps you make important decisions
Here at GlobalData, we have developed a unique thematic research ecosystem designed to take a holistic view
of the big themes that impact companies in the TMT sector.
Our thematic research ecosystem is a single, integrated global research platform that provides an easy-to-use
framework for tracking all themes across all companies in all sectors.
The graphic below depicts our 2020 theme map for TMT. It highlights the big themes that are driving share
prices for TMT companies and is the result of a series of interviews with senior industry executives and investors,
reflecting an up-to-date view of the issues that keep them awake at night. Our theme maps cover not only
disruptive tech themes but also macroeconomic and regulatory themes.
To obtain the most up-to-date analysis on the COVID-19 theme please visit Themes View in our Technology
Intelligence Center.
Our theme map shows the biggest themes driving growth in the tech, media, and telecoms sector
It covers the big issues that keep senior industry executives awake at night

GlobalData's 2020 theme map

Tech, Media, & Telecoms

Telecom E-commerce
Data centers
convergence
Software
defined Edge Esports
5G
everything computing
Generation
Wearable Tech Cloud Hashtag
Industrial
Connected car Internet TV Social media
Internet
Internet of Digital media
Cybersecurity
Things
Automated Ambient
Big data Regulation
home commerce
Machine
Smart cities Virtual reality
learning
Computer Artificial
Drones
vision intelligence M&A
The future of Conversational Augmented
work platforms reality
Autonomous
3D printing AI chips India
vehicles
Robotic process
MedTech Geopolitics
automation
Digital Robotics Quantum
payments computing China

Electric
FinTech COVID-19
vehicles
Crypto-
Blockchain currencies Batteries Brexit

Sustainability

Key: Purple circles indicate mega-themes; white circles indicate peripheral themes. Red circles indicate recently added
themes.
Source: GlobalData.

For a more detailed analysis of all the themes impacting the telecom services sector – and 16 other TMT sectors
– please see Tech, Media & Telecom Trends 2020 – updated for COVID-19 (20 March 2020).

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

COVID-19 impact on telecom services

As the COVID-19 virus has spread around the world, telecom operators have been trying to deliver the right
response for a business community and public in shock. Telecom services companies have needed to support
millions of remote workers, home-schoolers, and bored teenagers all required to social distance until further
notice, as well as serve national emergency interests.
In their response to the pandemic, telecom operators are generally holding up well, but high demand from
locked-down consumers is offset by business challenges. Building and maintaining telecom infrastructure has
been moderately impacted, and the difficulty of coping with national government rules on social distancing is
creating network installation and maintenance challenges.
5G investment remains critical for major US carriers, which are pressing ahead with their plans, but several
European countries have had to delay their 5G spectrum auctions. The longer stay-at-home orders remain in
place, the longer the slowdown will last.
COVID-19 has impacted all aspects of daily life for consumers and businesses. The wireless telecom industry
is not immune to any economic slowdown, though it is better insulated than most as its services are an important
part of consumers’ lives. However, telecom operators’ revenues will be hit in Q1 and Q2 2020 because of the
economic slowdown created by COVID-19. Increases in unemployment, business closures, and a decline in
economic activity will cause a fall in business services revenue.
On the consumer side, carriers that closed retail stores because of social distancing rules are starting to open
them again. Wireless services will be one of the last things cash-strapped consumers will give up, though they
could switch from contracts to prepaid phones. This logic, however, does not extend to smartphone upgrades.
As the anticipated economic downturn sets in, it's likely that more consumers facing financial hardship or fearing
unemployment will delay the investment in a new smartphone.
Fixed, voice, and IP traffic will surge as roaming revenues tumble
Lockdowns across the world have led to huge increases in the use of operators’ fixed voice and fixed broadband
services, as well as a surge in mobile voice usage. A week into a soft lockdown that started on 20 March 2020,
Proximus in Belgium reported a 50% traffic increase for both fixed voice and fixed broadband services and a
60% increase in mobile voice. In France, two weeks into lockdown, Orange reported a 100% increase in mobile
voice traffic and a 30% rise in fixed internet traffic. A week into lockdown in Spain, Spanish telecoms companies
reported a 40% increase in IP traffic, a 50% surge in mobile voice usage, a 25% increase in mobile data usage,
and a five-fold rise in instant messaging traffic (such as WhatsApp).
Telecom operators’ response to the crisis will not be uniform across the world. It will depend on their local
infrastructure picture. For example, in the Middle East and Africa (MEA), the COVID-19 situation is more
sensitive for a region where fixed broadband infrastructure, teleworking habits, banking, and ecommerce are
typically less advanced than in most developed countries. A mark of the extent of the crisis is the way local
telecom operators have adopted measures to support households, businesses, and governments. Countries
where over-the-top (OTT) voice applications were banned, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman,
lifted their ban on specific OTT voice applications for businesses, and telcos provided communication and
collaboration solutions to schools and universities. UAE telco Du, for instance, started providing conferencing
solution Cisco WebEx free of charge for three months for schools and universities on 17 March 2020. Operators
also provided free premium TV content.
As countries emerge from lockdown and companies and their staff begin to return to work – although many will
still be working from home – the use of services may return to more normal patterns, though how that changes
from country to country will depend on how governments unwind their lockdowns and the timescales they adopt.
Telcos will press on with 5G plans, despite social distancing and spectrum auction delays
5G rollout will be hampered by the impact of COVID-19, despite the clear desire of vendors to press ahead on
development. Although major carriers still have the cash flow to move ahead with 5G deployments, outside
factors have led to setbacks.
5G technical development has been affected by social distancing measures. A survey of 224 members of the
National Association of Tower Erectors (NATE) in the US found that about 50 companies had removed at least
one tower crew from the field because of the pandemic between 27 March and 1 April 2020. 5G-enabled phones
will be critical for 5G adoption, but telecom services companies will have to find ways of persuading consumers
that they need 5G, at a time when many are staying home and may potentially be facing job insecurity.
5G standards development has also been affected by the crisis, with 3GPP, the main global standards
organization that develops specifications for new wireless technologies, having to switch from face-to-face

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

meetings to online conferences. Regulators have firmly debunked any link between 5G networks and
coronavirus, a conspiracy theory that has led to attacks on mobile infrastructure.
In Europe, regulatory authorities in several countries, including Spain, Portugal, and France, have delayed their
spectrum auctions, and have yet to provide new dates. Some carriers, however, are pressing ahead. In the
Netherlands, VodafoneZiggo, a joint venture between Liberty Global and Vodafone, decided not to wait for the
spectrum auction and will use the existing 4G spectrum with Dynamic Spectrum Sharing from Ericsson. That
means 5G will cover half of the Netherlands at launch, with full subscriber coverage expected by the end of July
2020.
In China, China Telecom has maintained its coverage targets for this year. In Belgium, Proximus began offering
commercial 5G services in March, while Vodacom in South Africa launched 5G to cope with increasing traffic
demand.
In the US, where the stakes are particularly high, carriers such as AT&T and Verizon want to invest in 5G
infrastructure more aggressively. In general, despite facing revenue pressure from slowing sales and consumer
demand for new products, US carriers are more likely to reduce operating expenses and non-strategic capital
expenditures than reduce any investment in 5G network build-outs.
COVID-19 will fast-track digital transformation and partnerships
The impact of COVID-19 on organizations may fast-track digital transformation across industries, though digital
projects will still have to be justified in a time of cost-cutting. If COVID-19 proves to be the catalyst for such a
digital revolution, then telecom services companies will be among those leading it.
Those operators that wish to lead will need to get themselves digitally fit, and there are metrics by which this
can be measured. They include the percentage of broadband customers with a fiber connection, and the
percentage of customers that take multiple services, such as fixed, mobile, and digital TV. Another key measure
is how well telecom operators are set up to provide digital sales, e-care, and online payments through e-shops
and telco apps. A final measure is the maturity of structural separation projects, where typically an operator has
been split into independent units to better plan, build, and manage infrastructure, independent from the
requirements of other units. In the case of BT and Telstra in Australia, this was driven by the regulator to create
a competitive playing field.
COVID-19‘s impact has already driven the adoption of remote solutions for homeschooling and home-working.
In future, digitally-fit telcos will lead on 5G adoption and the use of the Industrial Internet for new use cases such
as remote surgery, 5G robotic nurses, and enhanced digital tools for self-support and e-care.
What is clear is that, post-crisis, consumer and enterprise telecom service appetites and habits will not go back
to pre-crisis levels. Consumers of all ages have had to become more digitally-literate. Students will do more e-
learning when universities open up again. Grandparents will want to video-conference with their families, and
enterprises will continue to allow remote-working. That means telecom services companies having to rethink
their business to service a more tech-savvy residential segment in the future.
The post-COVID-19 world will also see more organizations working in partnership, particularly in areas such as
edge computing. In February 2020, China Unicom, Deutsche Telekom, BT’s EE, KDDI, Orange, Singtel, SK
Telecom, Telefonica, and Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) all joined forces to develop an interoperable platform to
make edge computing capabilities easily available to developers and software companies that sell to enterprises.
Telcos are providing necessary support during the pandemic
The fallout from the pandemic has required telecom service companies to play a national support role for locked-
down customers, both from a social and business perspective. Bill payment leniency and flexibility are
increasingly common worldwide, and many telcos, including Bite in Lithuania, Optus in Australia, and AT&T in
the US, have offered communications services free of charge for three months to customers working as nurses
or doctors. In the UK, 14 telecom services companies said they would offer identified National Health Service
(NHS) frontline staff (who are existing customers) mobile data access, voice calls, and text messaging at no
extra cost on personal mobiles used for work.
Telecom operators have also launched affordable packages for financially vulnerable segments of society, such
as the elderly and low-income families. In India, local telecom service providers have helped with mass public
hygiene education messaging. Looking ahead, telcos could play a role in alerting customers traveling abroad to
local COVID-19 information.

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Telecom Services Sector Scorecard

At GlobalData, we use a scorecard approach to predict tomorrow’s leading companies within each sector. Our
sector scorecards have four screens: a who’s who screen, a thematic screen, a valuation screen, and a risk
screen.
For a full explanation of our thematic scoring methodology, please refer to the Appendix.
Who’s who
We define the telecom services sector to include mobile operators, fixed line telecom operators, cable TV
operators, and satellite TV operators.

Telecom services
(57 companies)

MKT CAP
Company Ticker Sector Country Description
(US$ M)

Advanced Info Service ADVANC Telecom operator (mobile) 17,562 Thailand Thai telecom operator
Altice ATC Cable & Satellite operators 5,148 Netherlands Cable operator which owns Suddenlink and Cablevision (Optimum) in the USA and over 70% of SFR in France
America Movil AMXL Telecom operator (mobile) 40,769 Mexico Mexican telecom operator
AT&T T Telecom operator (integrated) 206,340 USA US telecom operator, which owns DirecTV satellite TV operator and Time Warner
BCE BCE Telecom operator (integrated) 35,885 Canada Canadian telecom operator and owner of Bell Canada
Bharti Airtel BHARTIARTL Telecom operator (integrated) 43,070 India Leading Indian mobile operator
BT BT.A Telecom operator (integrated) 13,468 UK UK telecom operator
Centurylink CTL Telecom operator (integrated) 10,514 USA US telecom operator with focus on enterprise cloud services
Charter Communication CHTR Cable & Satellite operators 107,448 USA US pay TV operator that acquired Time Warner Cable and Brighthouse
China Mobile 941 Telecom operator (mobile) 150,436 China China's largest mobile operator
China Telecom 728 Telecom operator (integrated) 26,207 China China's largest fixed line operator
China Unicom 762 Telecom operator (mobile) 19,461 Hong Kong Chinese telecom operator
Chunghwa Telecom 2412 Telecom operator (integrated) 28,746 Taiwan Taiwanese telecom operator
Comcast CMCSA Cable & Satellite operators 174,396 USA US cable operator with media assets
Cox Unlisted Cable & Satellite operators Unlisted USA Cable TV provider with Home Automation services
Deutsche Telekom DTE Telecom operator (integrated) 70,953 Germany German telecom operator
Digi DIGI Telecom operator (integrated) 7,971 Malaysia Malaysian mobile operator
Etisalat ETISALAT Telecom operator (mobile) 36,418 UAE UAE telecom operator
Globe Telecom GLO Telecom operator (integrated) 5,817 Philippines Philippine telecom operator
GTT GTT Telecom operator (internet provider) 538 USA Provider of cloud networking services to multinational clients
Iliad ILD Telecom operator (integrated) 9,303 France French telecom operator
Ingenu Unlisted Telecom operator (wireless IoT) Unlisted USA Wireless network provider for the internet of things
KDDI 9433 Telecom operator (integrated) 71,022 Japan Japanese telecom operator
Korea Telecom 30200 Telecom operator (integrated) 5,295 Korea Korean telecom operator
KPN KPN Telecom operator (integrated) 9,533 Netherlands Dutch telecom operator
Maxis MAXIS Telecom operator (mobile) 9,506 Malaysia Malaysian telecom operator
Mobily 7020 Telecom operator (integrated) 5,451 Saudi Arabia UAE telecom operator
MTN Group MTN Telecom operator (mobile) 5,833 South Africa Operates mobile networks in 21 African countries incl. Nigeria and S Africa
NTT 9432 Telecom operator (integrated) 88,243 Japan Japanese telecom operator
NTT DoCoMo 9437 Telecom operator (mobile) 92,496 Japan Japanese mobile operator
Ooredoo ORDS Telecom operator (integrated) 5,544 Qatar Formerly Qatar Telecom
Orange ORA Telecom operator (integrated) 29,515 France French telecom operator
PLDT TEL Telecom operator (integrated) 5,204 Philippines Largest mobile operator in Philippines
Proximus PROX Telecom operator (integrated) 6,487 Belgium Belgian telecom operator, formerly Belgacom
Rogers Comms RCI.B Telecom operator (mobile) 20,338 Canada Canadian integrated telecom and media company
Saudi Telecom 7010 Telecom operator (integrated) 52,914 Saudi Arabia Saudi telecom operator
Sigfox Unlisted Telecom operator (wireless IoT) Unlisted France Wireless network provider for the internet of things
SingTel Z74 Telecom operator (integrated) 31,092 Singapore Owns stakes in Optus, Bharti and other Asian operators
SK Telecom 17670 Telecom operator (mobile) 13,690 Korea Korean mobile operator
Softbank 9984 Telecom operator (integrated) 87,755 Japan Japanese holding company with investments in US telecoms and several internet companies
Spark New Zealand SPK Telecom operator (integrated) 5,033 New Zealand Probably the most efficient Telco in the world
Sprint Unlisted Telecom operator (mobile) Unlisted USA US telecom operator
Swisscom SCMN Telecom operator (integrated) 25,927 Switzerland Swiss telecom operator
Tata Communications TATACOMM Telecom operator (integrated) 1,691 India Indian ISP and long distance operator
Telecom Italia TIT Telecom operator (integrated) 8,073 Italy Italian telecom operator
Telefonica TEF Telecom operator (integrated) 22,114 Spain Spanish telecom operator
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM Telecom operator (integrated) 21,843 Indonesia Indonesian mobile operator
Telenor TEL Telecom operator (integrated) 20,984 Norway Norwegian telecom operator
Telia TELIA Telecom operator (integrated) 13,706 Sweden Swedish/Finnish telecom operator
Telstra TLS Telecom operator (integrated) 24,175 Australia Australian telecom operator
Telus T Telecom operator (integrated) 20,597 Canada Canadian telecom operator
T-Mobile USA TMUS Telecom operator (mobile) 121,846 USA Deutsche Telekom's US telecom subsidiary
US Cellular USM Telecom operator (mobile) 2,560 USA Mobile operator
Veon VEON Telecom operator (integrated) 2,626 Netherlands Russian telecom operator, formerly known as VimpelCom.
Verizon VZ Telecom operator (integrated) 225,024 USA Integrated US telecom operator, which owns AOL and Yahoo
Vodacom VOD Telecom operator (mobile) 13,096 South Africa African mobile operator
Vodafone VOD Telecom operator (mobile) 41,498 UK Mobile operator with operations in Europe, India and Africa

Source: Company data, GlobalData. Market values as at 21 May 2020

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Thematic screen
COVID-19 is one of the top 10 themes that impacts this sector. Our analysts update scores on a real-time basis,
live on Sector View in our Technology Intelligence Center.
Our thematic screen ranks companies within a sector on the basis of overall leadership in the 10 themes that
matter most to their industry, generating a leading indicator of future performance.
Telecom services Thematic Screen
(57 companies) Weighting 5% 15% 10% 10% 10% 5% 10% 10% 10% 15% 100%
C
MKT CAP Software defined Cyber Data Internet of Telecom o Thematic
Company Ticker Country AI 5G Internet TV M&A Coronavirus
(US$ M) network Security Privacy Things convergence l Ranking
u
SK Telecom 13,690 17670 Korea 2 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 1
Korea Telecom 5,296 30200 Korea 2 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2
Etisalat 36,418 ETISALAT UAE 3 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
China Telecom 26,207 728 China 3 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 4
206,340 T USA 1 5 5 4 1 4 5 1 4 3 5
AT&T
Saudi Telecom 52,915 7010 Saudi Arabia 1 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 6 Thematic
SingTel
Ooredoo
31,092
5,545
Z74
ORDS
Singapore
Qatar
1
1
4
5
4
3
4
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
7
8
leader
Orange 29,515 ORA France 2 4 3 4 4 3 4 2 4 3 9
Deutsche Telekom 70,954 DTE Germany 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 10
Vodafone 41,499 VOD UK 1 4 4 3 4 3 5 2 3 3 11
China Unicom 19,461 762 Hong Kong 3 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 12
NTT 88,243 9432 Japan 1 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 13
Softbank 87,756 9984 Japan 4 4 4 2 4 3 5 4 3 1 14
Verizon 225,024 VZ USA 1 4 4 5 1 3 4 3 3 3 15
BT 13,469 BT.A UK 1 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 16
Comcast 174,397 CMCSA USA 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 17
China Mobile 150,437 941 China 3 5 3 3 4 3 4 1 3 2 18
Telefonica 22,114 TEF Spain 2 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 19
Bharti Airtel 43,070 BHARTIARTL India 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 20
Telstra 24,175 TLS Australia 1 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 21
Sigfox Unlisted Unlisted France 1 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 22
Chunghwa Telecom 28,747 2412 Taiwan 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 23
Telecom Italia 8,073 TIT Italy 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 24
US Cellular 2,560 USM USA 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 25
NTT DoCoMo 92,497 9437 Japan 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 26
KDDI 71,022 9433 Japan 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 27
Advanced Info Service 17,563 ADVANC Thailand 1 4 3 3 4 3 4 1 4 2 28
KPN 9,533 KPN Netherlands 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 29
Proximus 6,488 PROX Belgium 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 30
Mobily 5,452 7020 Saudi Arabia 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 31
Vodacom 13,097 VOD South Africa 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 32
Centurylink 10,514 CTL USA 1 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 33
Iliad 9,303 ILD France 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 34
MTN Group 5,833 MTN South Africa 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 35
Ingenu Unlisted Unlisted USA 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 36
Swisscom 25,928 SCMN Switzerland 1 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 37
Telia 13,706 TELIA Sweden 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 38
PLDT 5,204 TEL Philippines 1 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 4 2 39
T-Mobile USA 121,846 TMUS USA 1 4 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 40
America Movil 40,769 AMXL Mexico 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 41
BCE 35,885 BCE Canada 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 42
Telenor 20,984 TEL Norway 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 2 43
Telus 20,598 T Canada 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 44
Rogers Comms 20,339 RCI.B Canada 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 45
Globe Telecom 5,818 GLO Philippines 1 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 46
Veon 2,626 VEON Netherlands 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 47
Tata Communications 1,691 TATACOMM India 1 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 48
GTT 539 GTT USA 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 49
Maxis 9,507 MAXIS Malaysia 1 3 3 3 4 2 4 1 4 2 50
Altice 5,149 ATC Netherlands 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 51 Thematic
5,034 SPK New Zealand 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 52
Spark New Zealand
Cox Unlisted Unlisted USA 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 53 laggard
Charter Communication 107,449 CHTR USA 1 3 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 54
Telekomunikasi Indonesia 21,843 TLKM Indonesia 1 3 3 3 4 2 3 1 4 2 55
Sprint Unlisted Unlisted USA 1 4 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 2 56
Digi 7,971 DIGI Malaysia 1 2 3 3 4 2 3 1 1 2 57

Source: GlobalData. Market values as at 21 May 2020

Key: 1 (red) implies this technology theme will have a negative impact on earnings over the next 12 months; 3 (amber) implies a neutral impact; and 5 (green) a positive impact.
See Appendix for an explanation of our research methodology

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Valuation screen
Our valuation rankings are updated on a daily basis, and can be viewed live on Sector View in our Technology
Intelligence Center.

Our valuation screen ranks our universe of companies within a sector based on selected valuation metrics.

Telecom services Valuation Screen

(57 companies) Weighting 25% 20% 15% 20% 20% 100%
C
MKT CAP Net Debt (Cash)/ o Valuation
Company Ticker Country EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Div yield % FCF yield %
(US$ M) Market Value % l Ranking
u
China Unicom 19,461 762 Hong Kong 1.6 0.5 3.0 -21.5 24.0 1
China Telecom 26,207 728 China 2.4 0.8 4.8 30.1 15.8 2
China Mobile 150,436 941 China 2.5 1.0 5.0 -47.0 4.0 3 Cheap
Veon 2,626 VEON Netherlands 3.0 1.4 19.8 334.2 48.2 4
MTN Group 5,833 MTN South Africa 3.3 1.4 8.7 57.8 9.1 5
BT 13,468 BT.A UK 4.1 1.3 13.8 174.8 19.7 6
Proximus 6,487 PROX Belgium 5.1 1.5 8.2 41.5 9.5 7
NTT 88,243 9432 Japan 5.1 1.3 3.8 15.4 12.1 8
Telefonica 22,114 TEF Spain 5.0 1.6 13.5 232.9 36.3 9
Korea Telecom 5,295 30200 Korea 2.6 0.5 4.7 25.2 -0.8 10
SK Telecom 13,690 17670 Korea 5.1 1.4 4.3 -32.2 2.8 11
KDDI 71,022 9433 Japan 5.4 1.8 3.4 5.8 9.3 12
Ooredoo 5,544 ORDS Qatar 4.1 1.6 3.9 97.1 27.7 13
Vodafone 41,498 VOD UK 5.1 2.1 6.0 125.6 25.7 14
Etisalat 36,418 ETISALAT UAE 7.4 2.7 6.4 -7.6 8.0 15
Orange 29,515 ORA France 4.6 1.6 6.9 125.8 6.4 16
AT&T 206,340 T USA 6.7 2.1 7.2 71.4 14.2 17
Vodacom 13,096 VOD South Africa 6.8 3.0 6.0 -15.6 7.9 18
Deutsche Telekom 70,953 DTE Germany 5.9 2.0 5.5 112.6 13.4 19
NTT DoCoMo 92,496 9437 Japan 6.8 2.1 3.8 -7.0 7.3 20
Globe Telecom 5,817 GLO Philippines 5.6 2.6 4.3 32.1 7.8 21
Telecom Italia 8,073 TIT Italy 4.7 2.1 3.8 379.2 13.9 22
America Movil 40,769 AMXL Mexico 5.4 1.7 2.5 69.9 8.5 23
KPN 9,533 KPN Netherlands 5.9 2.7 5.9 74.6 10.2 24
Telekomunikasi Indonesia 21,843 TLKM Indonesia 6.1 2.8 5.1 7.1 4.3 25
Telia 13,706 TELIA Sweden 7.4 2.7 7.4 69.3 9.3 26
Centurylink 10,514 CTL USA 20.7 1.9 10.5 313.9 29.0 27
SingTel 31,092 Z74 Singapore 11.4 3.1 6.5 -12.3 7.5 28
US Cellular 2,560 USM USA 4.7 0.9 30.4 -7.5 29
Verizon 225,024 VZ USA 7.7 2.5 4.5 48.1 7.5 30
Telstra 24,175 TLS Australia 9.9 2.1 6.1 41.4 6.3 31
Advanced Info Service 17,562 ADVANC Thailand 8.1 3.5 3.7 13.1 8.8 32
Telenor 20,984 TEL Norway 6.7 3.0 5.8 57.4 5.3 33
Altice 5,148 ATC Netherlands 5.2 2.7 696.1 39.5 34
BCE 35,885 BCE Canada 8.2 3.4 5.9 50.4 7.9 35
Spark New Zealand 5,033 SPK New Zealand 9.3 2.9 5.4 19.4 4.3 36
Tata Communications 1,691 TATACOMM India 7.7 1.3 1.2 57.6 0.7 37
Swisscom 25,927 SCMN Switzerland 7.8 3.0 4.5 33.1 6.3 38
Comcast 174,396 CMCSA USA 8.2 2.6 2.1 54.0 7.6 39
Saudi Telecom 52,914 7010 Saudi Arabia 9.8 3.7 6.1 -5.4 -0.7 40
Iliad 9,303 ILD France 3.6 2.8 0.6 63.4 -5.9 41
Chunghwa Telecom 28,746 2412 Taiwan 10.9 4.1 4.0 -6.3 5.6 42
Mobily 5,451 7020 Saudi Arabia 6.8 2.5 62.5 6.9 43
PLDT 5,204 TEL Philippines 5.5 2.6 0.1 42.9 -7.7 44
Rogers Comms 20,338 RCI.B Canada 7.8 3.2 3.6 58.6 5.9 45
Digi 7,971 DIGI Malaysia 12.0 6.3 4.2 13.5 3.8 46
Maxis 9,506 MAXIS Malaysia 13.5 5.3 3.8 20.2 4.8 47
Telus 20,597 T Canada 8.4 3.2 4.0 62.1 -1.6 48
Expensive
T-Mobile USA 121,846 TMUS USA 12.1 3.3 23.0 -0.4 49
GTT 538 GTT USA 10.1 2.2 598.2 0.9 50
Softbank 87,755 9984 Japan 59.9 3.5 0.7 53.0 -3.8 51
Bharti Airtel 43,070 BHARTIARTL India -123.9 5.1 0.6 25.8 -1.3 52
Charter Communication 107,448 CHTR USA 11.6 4.2 70.1 4.2 53
Cox Unlisted Unlisted USA 54
Ingenu Unlisted Unlisted USA 55
Sigfox Unlisted Unlisted France 56
Sprint Unlisted Unlisted USA 57
Median 5.9 2.2 4.2 41.5 6.9
Mean 5.1 2.3 4.4 77.8 8.6

Source: GlobalData. Market values as at 21 May 2020

Key: Green denotes that the company is cheap (15% more attractively priced than the median value for the sector) relative to its global peers; amber denotes it is within 15% of the
sector median value; and red denotes that it is expensive relative to its global peers. Private companies are shown at the bottom of these rankings by default because they do not
have a publicly listed market price. See Appendix for an explanation of our research methodology.

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Risk screen

Our risk screen ranks companies within a particular sector on the basis of overall investment risk.

Telecom services Risk Screen

(57 companies) Weighting 20% 25% 25% 30% 100%
C
MKT CAP Corporate o Risk
Company Ticker Country Accounting Industry Political
(US$ M) Governance l Ranking
u
Verizon 225,024 VZ USA 5 3 3 5 1
Vodafone 41,498 VOD UK 5 3 3 5 2
Charter Communication 107,448 CHTR USA 3 4 3 5 3
Deutsche Telekom 70,953 DTE Germany 4 4 3 4 4 Low risk
Telstra 24,175 TLS Australia 5 4 3 3 5
AT&T 206,340 T USA 3 3 3 5 6
T-Mobile USA 121,846 TMUS USA 3 3 3 5 7
Centurylink 10,514 CTL USA 3 3 3 5 8
US Cellular 2,560 USM USA 3 3 3 5 9
Sprint Unlisted Unlisted USA 3 3 3 5 10
Comcast 174,396 CMCSA USA 3 4 3 4 11
BCE 35,885 BCE Canada 4 3 3 4 12
Swisscom 25,927 SCMN Switzerland 4 3 3 4 13
Telus 20,597 T Canada 4 3 3 4 14
Rogers Comms 20,338 RCI.B Canada 4 3 3 4 15
Telia 13,706 TELIA Sweden 4 3 3 4 16
BT 13,468 BT.A UK 5 1 3 5 17
Proximus 6,487 PROX Belgium 4 4 3 3 18
Telenor 20,984 TEL Norway 3 3 3 4 19
KPN 9,533 KPN Netherlands 3 3 3 4 20
Spark New Zealand 5,033 SPK New Zealand 3 3 3 4 21
NTT DoCoMo 92,496 9437 Japan 4 3 3 3 22
NTT 88,243 9432 Japan 4 3 3 3 23
KDDI 71,022 9433 Japan 4 3 3 3 24
Telefonica 22,114 TEF Spain 4 3 3 3 25
Telecom Italia 8,073 TIT Italy 4 3 3 3 26
SingTel 31,092 Z74 Singapore 3 3 3 3 27
Iliad 9,303 ILD France 3 3 3 3 28
GTT 538 GTT USA 3 3 2 3 29
Advanced Info Service 17,562 ADVANC Thailand 3 3 3 2 30
Bharti Airtel 43,070 BHARTIARTL India 4 3 3 1 31
China Mobile 150,436 941 China 1 4 3 2 32
China Telecom 26,207 728 China 1 4 3 2 33
China Unicom 19,461 762 Hong Kong 1 4 3 2 34
Cox Unlisted Unlisted USA 2 2 3 3 35
Ingenu Unlisted Unlisted USA 2 2 3 3 36
Sigfox Unlisted Unlisted France 2 2 3 3 37
Orange 29,515 ORA France 2 3 3 2 38
Chunghwa Telecom 28,746 2412 Taiwan 2 3 3 2 39
Vodacom 13,096 VOD South Africa 2 3 3 2 40
Maxis 9,506 MAXIS Malaysia 3 3 3 1 41
Digi 7,971 DIGI Malaysia 3 3 3 1 42
Tata Communications 1,691 TATACOMM India 3 3 3 1 43
MTN Group 5,833 MTN South Africa 1 3 3 2 44
SK Telecom 13,690 17670 Korea 2 3 3 1 45
Globe Telecom 5,817 GLO Philippines 2 3 3 1 46
Korea Telecom 5,295 30200 Korea 2 3 3 1 47
PLDT 5,204 TEL Philippines 2 3 3 1 48
America Movil 40,769 AMXL Mexico 2 2 2 2 49 High risk
Telekomunikasi Indonesia 21,843 TLKM Indonesia 2 2 3 1 50
Altice 5,148 ATC Netherlands 1 1 2 3 51
Softbank 87,755 9984 Japan 1 2 2 2 52
Saudi Telecom 52,914 7010 Saudi Arabia 1 1 3 1 53
Etisalat 36,418 ETISALAT UAE 1 1 3 1 54
Ooredoo 5,544 ORDS Qatar 1 1 3 1 55
Mobily 5,451 7020 Saudi Arabia 1 1 3 1 56
Veon 2,626 VEON Netherlands 1 1 3 1 57

Source: GlobalData. Market values as at 21 May 2020

Key: green denotes low risk; amber denotes medium risk; red denotes high risk.
See Appendix for an explanation of our research methodology

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Thematic briefing
What is COVID-19?
Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more
severe diseases such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.
Coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they are transmitted between animals and people. COVID-19 is the
name given to the disease associated with the virus.
COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, a major travel hub in China, in December 2019. On 13 January 2020,
Thailand reported the first case of the coronavirus outside China.
As of 21 May 2020, COVID-19 has now spread to 188 countries with 5 million confirmed cases, including 1.5
million in the US. There have been over 328,000 deaths and nearly 1.9 million people who have had the virus
are now recovering.
The disease has an incubation period of up to 14 days, allowing the illness to go undetected. On 11 March 2020
the World Health Organization described the global outbreak as a pandemic.
How COVID-19 attacks human cells

Source: New York Times, Dr. Matthew B. Frieman and Dr. Stuart Weston, Univ. of Maryland School of Medicine; Fields Virology; Fenner and
White’s Medical Virology; Nature; Science; The Lancet; New England Journal of Medicine; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

Appendix: Our thematic research methodology

Companies that invest in the right themes become success stories. Those that miss the important themes in
their industry end up as failures.
Viewing the world’s data by themes makes it easier to make important decisions
We define a theme as any issue which keeps a CEO awake at night. GlobalData’s thematic research ecosystem
is a single, integrated global research platform that provides an easy-to-use framework for tracking all themes
across all companies in all sectors. It has a proven track record of identifying the important themes early,
enabling companies to make the right investments ahead of the competition, and secure that all-important
competitive advantage.
Traditional research does a poor job of picking winners and losers
The difficulty in picking tomorrow’s winners and losers in any industry arises from the sheer number of
technology cycles – and other themes – that are in full swing right now. Companies are impacted by multiple
themes that frequently conflict with one another. What is needed is an effective methodology that reflects,
understands and reconciles these conflicts.
That is why we developed our “thematic engine”
At GlobalData, we have developed a unique thematic methodology for ranking technology, media and telecom
(TMT) companies based on their relative strength in the big investment themes that are impacting their industries.
Our thematic engine identifies which companies are best placed to succeed in a future filled with multiple
disruptive threats.
To do this, we rate the performance of the top 600 TMT companies against the 50 most important themes
impacting those companies, generating 30,000 thematic scores. The algorithms in GlobalData’s thematic engine
help to identify the longer-term winners and losers within the TMT sector.
How do we create our sector scorecards?
First, we split the global TMT industry into sectors. Second, we identify and rank the top 10 themes for each
sector (these can be technology themes, macroeconomic themes or regulatory themes). Third, we publish in-
depth research on specific themes, identifying the winners and losers. The problem is that companies are
exposed to multiple investment themes and the relative importance of specific themes can fluctuate.
So, our fourth step is to create a thematic screen for each sector to calculate overall leadership rankings after
taking account of all themes impacting that sector.
Finally, to give a crystal clear picture, we combine this thematic screen with valuation and risk screens to
generate a sector scorecard used to help assess overall winners and losers.
Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard

Sectors Themes Research Thematic screen Sector scorecard

1. Split the global TMT 2. Identify and rank the 3. Identify and score tech 4. Calculate overall 5. Determine leading companies
sector into 18 subsectors. top 10 themes driving leaders and challengers thematic rankings for in each sector using our three
earnings for each sector. for each theme. all companies in a sector. screens.

Hardware
Semiconductors 1. Voice
Servers, storage, networking
Telecom equipment Consumer
electronics Sector Scorecard =
Component makers
Industrial automation
Software 2. Cloud Thematic screen
Application software
Infrastructure software +
Security software Valuation screen
Video games software
IT services +
Internet & Media 3. Blockchain
E-commerce
Risk Screen
Social media
Advertising
Music, film and television
Publishing
Telecoms 10. Internet of
Telecom operators
Cable operators Things

Source: GlobalData

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

What is in our sector scorecards?

Our sector scorecards help us determine which companies are best positioned for a future filled with disruptive
threats. Each sector scorecard has three screens:
 The thematic screen tells us who are the overall technology leaders in the 10 themes that matter most,
based on our thematic engine;
 The valuation screen tells us whether publicly listed players appear cheap or expensive relative to
their peers, based on consensus forecasts from investment analysts; and
 The risk screen tells us who the riskiest players in each industry are, based on our assessment of four
risk categories: corporate governance risk, accounting risk, technology risk and political risk.

How do we score companies in our thematic screen?

Our thematic screen ranks companies within a sector on the basis of overall leadership in the 10 themes that
matter most to their industry, generating a leading indicator of future performance.
Thematic scores predict the future, not the past.
Our thematic scores are based on our analysts’ assessment of their competitive position in relation to a theme,
on a scale of 1 to 5:
1. Vulnerable: The company’s activity with regards to this theme will be highly detrimental to its future
performance.
2. Follower: The company’s activity with regards to this theme will be detrimental to its future performance.
3. Neutral: The company’s activity with regards to this theme will have a negligible impact on the
company’s future performance, or this theme is not currently relevant for this company.
4. Leader: The company is a market leader in this theme. The company’s activity with regards to this
theme will improve its future performance.
5. Dominant: The company is a dominant player in this theme. The company’s activity with regards to this
theme will significantly improve its future performance.

How our research reports fit into our overall thematic research ecosystem
Our thematic research ecosystem is designed to assess the impact of all major themes on the leading
companies in the TMT sector. To do this, we produce three tiers of thematic reports:
 Single Theme: These reports offer in-depth research into a specific theme (e.g. artificial intelligence).
They identify winners and losers based on technology leadership, market position and other factors.
 Multi-Theme: These reports cover all companies and all themes within the TMT sector. There are two
types: one is organized by sector; the other is organized by theme.
 Sector Scorecard: These reports identify those companies most likely to succeed in a world filled with
disruptive threats. They incorporate our thematic screen to show how conflicting themes interact with
one another, as a well as our valuation and risk screens.

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GDTMT-TR-R269 COVID-19 Impact on Telecom Services 21 May 2020

About GlobalData
4,000 of the world’s largest
companies make better and
more timely decisions thanks
to our unique data, expert
analysis and innovative
solutions delivered through a
single platform.

GlobalData is one of the world’s leading providers of company operational data and strategic analysis,
providing detailed information on tens of thousands of companies globally. Our highly qualified team of
Analysts, Researchers, and Solution Consultants use proprietary data sources and various tools and
techniques to gather, analyze and represent the latest and the most reliable information essential for
businesses to sustain a competitive edge. Data is continuously updated and revised by large teams of
research experts, so that it always reflects the latest events and information. With a large dedicated research
and analysis capability, GlobalData employs rigorous primary and secondary research techniques in
developing unique data sets and research material for this series and its other reports. GlobalData offers
comprehensive geographic coverage across world’s most important sectors, focusing particularly on energy
and healthcare.

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RESEARCH otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher,
GlobalData.
Cyrus Mewawalla
Head of Thematic Research The data and analysis within this report is driven by
[email protected] GlobalData from its own primary and secondary research
+44 (0) 207 936 6522 of public and proprietary sources and does not necessarily
represent the views of the company (or companies)
covered.
CLIENT SERVICES The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the
[email protected] time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note
+44 (0) 207 406 6764 that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that
GlobalData delivers will be based on information gathered
in good faith from both primary and secondary sources,
whose accuracy we are not always in a position to
guarantee. As such GlobalData can accept no liability
whatsoever for actions taken based on any information
that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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