The relationship between population and

economic growth
The issue of population and economic growth is as old as economics itself. Malthus (1798)
claimed that there is a tendency for the population growth rate to surpass the production
growth rate because population increases at a geometrical rate while production increases at
an arithmetic rate. Thus, the unfettered population growth in a country could plunge it into
acute poverty. However, the pessimist view has proven unfounded for developed economies
in that they managed to achieve a high level of economic growth and thus, both population
and the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were able to increase (Meier 1995, p.
276). (1) The debate between positive and negative sides of population growth is ongoing.
Population growth enlarges labour force and, therefore, increases economic growth. A large
population also provides a large domestic market for the economy. Moreover, population
growth encourages competition, which induces technological advancements and innovations.
Nevertheless, a large population growth is not only associated with food problem but also
imposes constraints on the development of savings, foreign exchange and human resources
(Meier 1995). Generally, there is no consensus whether population growth is beneficial or
detrimental to economic growth in developing economies. Moreover, empirical evidence on
the matter for developing economies is relatively limited.

The issue of population and economic growth is also closely related to the issue of minimum
wage. Population growth enlarges labour force and, therefore, will push wage down. The
standard economic labour demand model predicts that low wage will raise the demand for
labour. As a result, the welfare of the economy is likely to increase. Moreover, low wage
would encourage industries that are labour intensive. Low wage is

The issue of population and economic growth is also closely related to the issue of minimum
wage. Population growth enlarges labour force and, therefore, will push wage down. The
standard economic labour demand model predicts that low wage will raise the demand for
labour. As a result, the welfare of the economy is likely to increase. Moreover, low wage
would encourage industries that are labour intensive. Low wage is said to be an important
factor that has contributed to the industrialization of Asian newly industrialized economies
(NIEs), namely Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. Moreover, it is also argued to be
an important factor that contributes to economic growth in China. Conversely, the standard
economic labour demand model predicts that the introduction or rising of minimum wage
will break the mechanism, i.e., there would be no link between population and economic
growth. Nonetheless, a range of monopsony, efficiency wage, and search models shows that
in some circumstances minimum wage could indeed raise employment. The empirical
evidence on the matter is mixed, with some studies showing negative effects and others
showing positive or zero effects of minimum wage. Thus, there is no clear relationship
between population and economic growth. Nevertheless, the studies regarding minimum
wage and employment are conducted mainly for developed economies (Stewart 2004, p.
C110; Rama 2001; Warr 2004).

The relationship between population and economic growth is complex and the historical
evidence is ambiguous, particularly concerning the causes and impacts (Thirlwall 1994, p.
143)? (2) Becker, Glaeser, and Murphy (1999, p. 149) demonstrated in a theoretical model
that a large population growth could have both negative and positive impacts on productivity.
A large population may reduce productivity because of diminishing returns to more intensive
use of land and other natural resources. Conversely, a large population could encourage
greater specialization, and a large market increases returns to human capital and knowledge.
Thus, the net relationship between greater population and economic growth depends on
whether the inducements to human capital and expansion of knowledge are stronger than
diminishing returns to natural resources. Therefore, it is important to examine the population
and economic growth nexus.

The main aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between population and economic
growth in Asian economies, namely, China, Japan, Asian NIEs (Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan,
and Singapore) and the ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and
Thailand), generally for the period 1950-2000. Those countries vary in population size,
economic growth

Population and Economic Growth

The debate on the relationship between population and economic growth could be traced
back to 1798 when Thomas Malthus published the book An Essay on the Principle of
Population. According to the Malthusian model, the causation went in both directions. Higher
economic growth increased population by stimulating earlier marriages and higher birth rates,
and by cutting down mortality from malnutrition and other factors. On the other hand, higher
population also depressed economic growth through diminishing returns. This dynamic
interaction between population and economic growth is the centre of the Malthusian model,
which implies a stationary population in the long-run equilibrium (Becker, Glaeser, and
Murphy 1999, p. 145).

Generally, population growth is associated with food problem, i.e., malnutrition and hunger.
Nonetheless, the food problem is more a problem of poverty and inadequate income than a
matter of inadequate global food supplies. The population and food problem is solved when
income is enough to buy adequate food as prices provide adequate incentives to produce.
Developing economies are capable of producing surpluses of food for exports. On the other
hand, developing economies would have to export more, receive foreign aid or borrow
overseas to meet their increased demand for food by increased imports (Meier 1995, p. 277).

Population growth is much more than a food problem. A high rate of population growth not
only has an adverse impact on improvement in food supplies, but also intensifies the
constraints on d

Population growth is much more than a food problem. A high rate of population growth not
only has an adverse impact on improvement in food supplies, but also intensifies the
constraints on development of savings, foreign exchange, and human resources. Rapid
population growth tends to depress savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital
per worker. The need for social infrastructure is also broadened and public expenditures must
be absorbed in providing the need for a larger population rather than in providing directly
productive assets (Meier 1995, pp. 276-77).

Population pressure is likely to intensify the foreign exchange constraints by placing more
pressure on the balance of payment. The need to import food will require the development of
new industries for export expansion and/or import substitution. The rapid increase in school-
age population and the expanding number of labour-force entrants puts ever-greater pressure
on educational and training facilities and retards improvement in the quality of education,
which is a problem in developing economies as about 33 per cent of the children of primary-
school age are not enrolled in school and of those who enter school, 60 per cent will not
complete more than three years of primary school (Meier 1995, p. 285). Also, too dense a
population aggravates the problem of improving the health of the population. In most
developing economies, the working age population had roughly doubled in the past twenty-
five years. At expected growth rates, it will double again in the next twenty-five years. This
growth clearly intensifies pressure on employment and the amount of investment available
per labour market entrant (Meier 1995, p. 277).

Becker, Glaeser, and Murp

Becker, Glaeser, and Murphy (1999, p. 147) demonstrated in a theoretical model that
population growth will increase parental utility if it has a sufficiently positive impact on
human capital accumulation or if the impact on current production is not too negative. Since
human capital is more important at higher levels of development, greater population is likely
to raise per capita welfare in more developed economies. On the other hand, an increase in
population growth may lower the productivity of fanning in poorer agricultural economies, so
that output per capita there would be lower initially. However, even in these economies,
greater population growth would tend to raise the accumulation of human capital by raising
rates of return on investments in schooling and other human capital. Moreover, families
would lower their fertilities if population growth raises rates of return on investments in
children because that would increase the cost of having large families compared with
investing more in each of children. Therefore, the demographic transition towards smaller
families in economies with initially high fertility and low income per capita may be
stimulated by an initial growth in population. Thus, an increase in population may both
reduce fertility and raise the accumulation of human capital.

A larger population may help overcome possibly diminishing returns to this generation's
human capital in the production of the next generation's human capital because greater
population growth induces more specialization and a larger market that raise returns to
human capital and knowledge. If human capital per capita were sufficiently large, the
economy would move to steady-state growth, whereby in the steady-state growth path,
consumption per capita would increase at a slower rate than human capital if the population is
growing and if the production of consumer goods has diminishing returns to population.
However, consumption per capita can still be increasing, despite these diminishing returns, if
the positive impact of the growth in human capital on productivity in the consumption sector
more than offsets the negative impact of population growth. Thus, zero population growth is
not necessary for sustainable growth in per capita consumption, even with diminishing
returns to population in the production of consumer goods (Becker, Glaeser, and Murphy
1999, p. 148).

Population Dynamis

Population dynamics is the branch of life sciences that studies short- and long-term changes
in the size and age composition of populations, and the biological and environmental
processes influencing those changes. Population dynamics deals with the way populations are
affected by birth and death rates, and by immigration and emigration, and studies topics such
as ageing populations or population decline.
The mathematical model often viewed as the best to govern the population dynamics of any
given species is called the exponential model.[1] With the exponential model, the rate of
change of any given population is proportional to the already existing population.[

Population dynamics has traditionally been the dominant branch of mathematical biology,
which has a history of more than 210 years, although more recently the scope of
mathematical biology has greatly expanded. The first principle of population dynamics is
widely regarded as the exponential law of Malthus, as modelled by the Malthusian growth
model. The early period was dominated by demographic studies such as the work of
Benjamin Gompertz and Pierre François Verhulst in the early 19th century, who refined and
adjusted the Malthusian demographic model.

A more general model formulation was proposed by F.J. Richards in 1959, further expanded
by Simon Hopkins, in which the models of Gompertz, Verhulst and also Ludwig von
Bertalanffy are covered as special cases of the general formulation. The Lotka–Volterra
predator-prey equations are another famous example. The computer game SimCity and the
MMORPG Ultima Online, among others, tried to simulate some of these population
dynamics.

In the past 30 years, population dynamics has been complemented by evolutionary game
theory, developed first by John Maynard Smith. Under these dynamics, evolutionary biology
concepts may take a deterministic mathematical form. Population dynamics overlap with
another active area of research in mathematical biology: mathematical epidemiology, the
study of infectious disease affecting populations. Various models of viral spread have been
proposed and analysed, and provide important results that may be applied to health policy
decisions.

Rural-Urban Migration

What is rural-urban migration?

Rural-urban migration is the movement of people from the countryside to the city. This causes two things to
happen:
1. Urban growth - towns and cities are expanding, covering a greater area of land.
2. Urbanisation - an increasing proportion of people living in towns and cities.

Mega cities - those with over 10 million people.

Push and pull factors

PUSH PULL
• Famine, drought, natural disasters
• Employment
• Poor living conditions - housing, education and health care
• Higher incomes
• Agricultural change (see notes on the Green Revolution).
• Better healthcare and education
• Unemployment • Urban facilities and way of life
• War and conflict • Protection from conflict
Examples of push factors from rural areas
1. Modernization of agriculture in countries such as Brazil has resulted in more machines and the need for fewer
workers. Many workers have migrated to the cities e.g.. Sao Paulo.
2. Flooding in Bangladesh destroyed the food crops for millions of people. In these circumstances people may
have no option but to move to the city.
Attraction to the urban areas
People are attracted to urban areas because they think that they will have greater opportunities there. For many,
life is better but some end up in poverty.

Educating girls in the Third World; the demographic, basic needs, and economic
benefits.

by Kenneth Hadden , Bruce London

Introduction
Every United Nations sponsored report on international development since the late 1960s has
stressed the importance of universal literacy and has urged an end to the widespread gender
disparity in school enrollment (Rowley, 1993). These reports, including 1969's Pearson
Report, the Brandt Report of 1987, and 1992's Agenda 21, were augmented by two influential
reports issued during 1994. First The Progress of Nations (UNICEF, 1994:20) asserts:
There is widespread agreement that the education of girls is one of the most important
investments that any developing country can make in its own future. In the long term, almost
every other aspect of progress, from nutrition to family planning, from child health to
women's rights, is profoundly affected by whether or not a nation educates its girls.
These points were elaborated upon in the report on the U.N. Conference on Population and
Development (United Nations, 1994:20-21):
Since in all societies discrimination on the basis of sex often begins at the earliest stages of
life, greater equality for the girl child is a necessary first step in ensuring that women realize
their full potential and become equal partners in development. . . . Investments made in the
girl child's health, nutrition and education, from infancy through adolescence, are critical.
Overall, the value of girl children to both their family and to society must be expanded
beyond their definition as potential child-bearers and caretakers and reinforced through the
adoption and implementation of educational and social policies that encourage their full
participation in the development of the societies in which they live. . . . Beyond the
achievement of the goal of universal primary education in all countries before the year 2015,
all countries are urged to ensure the widest and earliest possible access by girls and women to
secondary and higher levels of education. . . .
The World Bank has also been making a concerted effort in recent years to spread the
message that "educating girls quite possibly yields a higher rate of return than any other
investment available in the developing world" (Summers, 1992:132; see also Schultz, 1993;
Summers, 1994).
Over the past three decades there has been considerable growth in both primary and
secondary school enrollments in the developing world. But as the foregoing comments
clearly suggest, enrollment rates of girls continue to lag behind those of boys in most
developing countries. While countries of East Asia and Latin America (excluding Bolivia,
Guatemala and Haiti) are approaching parity in the primary and secondary school enrollments
of boys and girls, the gender gap continues to be substantial in Africa, the Middle East and
South Asia (Nuss and Majka, 1985; Herz et al., 1991; Bellew et al., 1992; Hill and King,
1993).
There are many reasons why girls are less apt than boys to be attending school. Since sons
typically are responsible for supporting parents in their old age, having educated sons is
attractive to parents. The costs of education, both direct (e.g., school fees, books, uniforms,
etc.) and opportunity (i.e., loss of household help and, in some cases, wages), are therefore
more readily absorbed for sons than daughters. When we consider that the economic
contributions of daughters to the household is much greater than sons in poor economies and
that future economic opportunities are much more limited for females than males, it is not
surprising that parents are more averse to girls' than boys' schooling. There is also generally
much greater concern for the safety of daughters than sons, supported by patriarchal cultural
traditions, which acts as a deterrent to sending daughters to school. Also, because girls
ordinarily join their husband's family upon marriage and take with them the benefits of
education, parents have little incentive to bear the costs of educating their daughters (Hill and
King, 1993; Bellew et al., 1992; Herz et al., 1991). Finally, Clark (1992) has found that the
investment and hiring practices of multinational corporations discourage high levels of
education of women.
These constraints to female education operate almost exclusively at the household level. But
many societies, too, have been unwilling to invest in educating girls. This is true in spite of
increasing evidence from an accumulating body of research studies that there are great
benefits accruing to societies that do educate girls (for overviews, see Herz et al., 1991;
Bellew et al., 1992). This literature, in fact, documents a wide array of "benefits," ranging
from declines ...