SUM 1

Return P(E ) Exp Return x-X^ (x-x^)^ 2 Variance

0 0.2 0 -157.5 24806.25 4961.25
100 0.25 25 -57.5 3306.25 826.5625
150 0.3 45 -7.5 56.25 16.875
250 0.15 37.5 92.5 8556.25 1283.4375
500 0.1 50 342.5 117306.3 11730.625
157.5 18818.75

Expected Returns : Rs 157.5 / 10.50%

Variance: 18818.75

Yes, he will decide to purchase since his Exp Returns is 10.50%, which is > 10%

SUM 2

Woll in lbs P(E ) Exp Demand x-X SD

2500 0.3 750 -1000 -300
3500 0.45 1575 0 0
4500 0.2 900 1000 200
5500 0.05 275 2000 100
3500 0

Expected Weekly Demand = 3,500

Standard Deviation = 0

Demand : 2500.
Profit on actual demand : $1 x 2500 $2,500
Loss on wastage : $ 4 x 1000 $4,000
Net loss : $ 1,500

SUM 3 (a)
Probability (E ) Number Choosen nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 20 0 1 0.2 0 1 0.8
P(1) 20 1 20 0.2 1 0.2 0.8
P(2) 20 2 190 0.2 2 0.04 0.8
P(3) 20 3 1140 0.2 3 0.008 0.8
P(4) 20 4 4845 0.2 4 0.0016 0.8
P(5) 20 5 15504 0.2 5 0.00032 0.8
P(6) 20 6 38760 0.2 6 6.4E-05 0.8
P(7) 20 7 77520 0.2 7 1.28E-05 0.8
SUM 4
(a) Atleast 50% watching the show
: 3 ppl or 4 ppl or 5 ppl are watching the show
: P(3) + P(4) + P(5)

Viewers Watching nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure

P(3) 5 3 10 0.8 3 0.512 0.2
P(4) 5 4 5 0.8 4 0.4096 0.2
P(5) 5 5 1 0.8 5 0.32768 0.2

(b) Atleast 50% NOT watching the show

: 1 - { P(3) + P(4) + P(5) }

: 1 - 0.94208 0.05792

Viewers Watching nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure

P(0) 5 0 1 0.8 0 1 0.2
P(1) 5 1 5 0.8 1 0.8 0.2
P(2) 5 2 10 0.8 2 0.64 0.2

SUM 5
(a)
Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P (4) 15 4 1365 0.3 4 0.0081 0.7

(b)
: P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5)

Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure

P(0) 15 0 1 0.3 0 1 0.7
P(1) 15 1 15 0.3 1 0.3 0.7
P(2) 15 2 105 0.3 2 0.09 0.7
P(3) 15 3 455 0.3 3 0.027 0.7
P(4) 15 4 1365 0.3 4 0.0081 0.7
P(5) 15 5 3003 0.3 5 0.00243 0.7

(C )
: P(9) + P(10) +P(11)…….+ P(15)
Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(9) 15 9 5005 0.3 9 1.9683E-05 0.7
P(10) 15 10 3003 0.3 10 5.9049E-06 0.7
P(11) 15 11 1365 0.3 11 1.77147E-06 0.7
P(12) 15 12 455 0.3 12 5.31441E-07 0.7
P(13) 15 13 105 0.3 13 1.59432E-07 0.7
P(14) 15 14 15 0.3 14 4.78297E-08 0.7
P(15) 15 15 1 0.3 15 1.43489E-08 0.7

(D)
Expected person: 30% of 15 = 4.5 people

(E )
Standard Deviation
-3.15

SUM 6
(a)
Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 18 0 1 0.1 0 1 0.9

(b)
More than two : 1 - { P(0) + P(1) + P(2) }
Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 18 0 1 0.1 0 1 0.9
P(1) 18 1 18 0.1 1 0.1 0.9
P(2) 18 2 153 0.1 2 0.01 0.9

(C )
Shoppers Actual shop nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 18 0 1 0.1 0 1 0.9
P(1) 18 1 18 0.1 1 0.1 0.9
P(2) 18 2 153 0.1 2 0.01 0.9
. 18 3 816 0.1 3 0.001 0.9
. 18 4 3060 0.1 4 0.0001 0.9
. 18 5 8568 0.1 5 1E-05 0.9
. 18 6 18564 0.1 6 1E-06 0.9
. 18 7 31824 0.1 7 1E-07 0.9
. 18 8 43758 0.1 8 1E-08 0.9
. 18 9 48620 0.1 9 1E-09 0.9
. 18 10 43758 0.1 10 1E-10 0.9
. 18 11 31824 0.1 11 1E-11 0.9
. 18 12 18564 0.1 12 1E-12 0.9
. 18 13 8568 0.1 13 1E-13 0.9
. 18 14 3060 0.1 14 1E-14 0.9
. 18 15 816 0.1 15 1E-15 0.9
. 18 16 153 0.1 16 1E-16 0.9
. 18 17 18 0.1 17 1E-17 0.9
P(18) 18 18 1 0.1 18 1E-18 0.9
Expected guarantee: 1.8 cars
Expected cost: 1.8 * 5400 = Rs 9,720

SUM 7
(a)
Total CallsCall Recvd nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 60 0 1 0.083333 0 1 0.916667

(b)
Minutes Calls nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(5) 60 5 5461512 0.083333 5 4.01878E-06 0.916667

(C )
Minutes Calls nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 60 0 1 0.083333 0 1 0.916667
P(1) 60 1 60 0.083333 1 0.08333333 0.916667
P(2) 60 2 1770 0.083333 2 0.00694444 0.916667
P(3) 60 3 34220 0.083333 3 0.0005787 0.916667
P(4) 60 4 487635 0.083333 4 4.82253E-05 0.916667

(D)
Max 4 calls = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) (refer to above part)
0.4328248227181

(E )
Minutes Calls nCr Success Success Raise Success (E ) Failure
P(0) 60 0 1 0.083333 0 1 0.916667

(F )
No calls in 15 mins = (11/12)^15 0.2711263

SUM 8
(a)
More than 6 = 1 - { P(0) + P(1) …..+ P(6) }
1 - 0.0407
0.9593 (poisson table)

(b)
Cannot meet demand = demand is > 4
: 1 - { P(0) + P(1) …..+ P(4) }
1- 0.1557
 0.8443 (poisson table)

(C )
Mean = Lamda x time Standard Deviation = (Mean)^1/2
: 2.8 x 4 : (11.2)^0.5 3.34664010614
Mean = 11.2 Standard Deviation = 3.346630106

SUM 9
(a)
Less than 3: 0.2226 (poisson table)

(b)
No business lost = 0.2090 (poisson table)

(C )
5 or more in an hour = 1 - { P(0) + P(1) …..+ P(4) }
: 1 - 0.0551
0.9449 (poisson table)

SUM 10
100m no flaws: 0.6703 (poisson table)

Mean / Average: 0.0.4 x 1 Standard Deviation : (0.4)^0.5

0.4 0.6324555
Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )
20 0.0115292 0.011529215046
19 0.0144115 0.05764607523 0.032143
18 0.0180144 0.136909428672
17 0.022518 0.205364143008
16 0.0281475 0.218199401946
15 0.0351844 0.174559521557
14 0.0439805 0.109099700973
13 0.0549756 0.054549850487
0.967857336919
Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )
2 0.04 0.2048
1 0.2 0.4096
0 1 0.32768
0.94208

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

5 0.00032 0.00032
4 0.0016 0.0064
3 0.008 0.0512
0.05792

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

11 0.0197733 0.21862313134

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

15 0.0047476 0.00474756151
14 0.0067822 0.030520038278
13 0.0096889 0.091560114835
12 0.0138413 0.170040213264
11 0.0197733 0.21862313134
10 0.0282475 0.206130380978
0.721621440204

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

6 0.117649 0.011590004761
5 0.16807 0.002980286939
4 0.2401 0.000580575378
3 0.343 8.293933967E-05
2 0.49 8.202791835E-06
 1 0.7 5.02211745E-07
0 1 1.4348907E-08
0.01524252577

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

18 0.1500946 0.150094635297

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

18 0.1500946 0.150094635297
17 0.1667718 0.300189270594
16 0.185302 0.283512088894
0.733795994785 0.2662040052

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E ) EXP Value

18 0.1500946 0.150094635297 0
17 0.1667718 0.300189270594 0.3001892706
16 0.185302 0.283512088894 0.5670241778
15 0.2058911 0.168007163789 0.5040214914
14 0.2287679 0.070002984912 0.2800119396
13 0.2541866 0.021778706417 0.1088935321
12 0.2824295 0.005243021915 0.0314581315
11 0.3138106 0.000998670841 0.0069906959
10 0.3486784 0.000152574712 0.0012205977
9 0.3874205 1.883638418E-05 0.0001695275
8 0.4304672 1.883638418E-06 1.883638E-05
7 0.4782969 1.522132055E-07 1.674345E-06
6 0.531441 9.865670724E-09 1.18388E-07
5 0.59049 5.05931832E-10 6.577114E-09
4 0.6561 2.007666E-11 2.8107324E-10
3 0.729 5.94864E-13 8.92296E-12
2 0.81 1.2393E-14 1.98288E-13
1 0.9 1.62E-16 2.754E-15
0 1 1E-18 1.8E-17
1.8
Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )
60 0.0054036 0.005403639238 0.0067 (Poisson table)

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E ) 0.1755 (Poisson table)

55 0.0083489 0.183246552607

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E ) 0.8245 (Poisson table)

60 0.0054036 0.005403639238
59 0.0058949 0.029474395845
58 0.0064308 0.079044970676
57 0.0070154 0.138927524219
56 0.0076532 0.179974292739
0.432824822718 0.5671751773

0.1755 (Poisson table)

Failure Raise Failure (E ) P (E )

60 0.0054036 0.005403639238 0.2138 (Poisson table)