One Sample Inference
(Hypothesis Testing)
By: Girma M.
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Outline’s
• Introduction
• General Steps in Hypothesis Testing
• Hypothesis testing of Population mean µ
• Hypothesis testing of Population mean p
• P-values
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Introduction
• Researchers are interested in answering many types of questions.
• For example:
A scientist might want to know whether the earth is warming up.
A physician might want to know whether a new medication will
lower a person’s blood pressure.
An educator might wish to see whether a new teaching
technique is better than a traditional one.
A retail merchant might want to know whether the public prefers
a certain color in a new line of fashion.
Automobile manufacturers are interested in determining whether
seat belts will
reduce the severity of injuries caused by accidents.
A forester might interested to predicted the amount of carbon
stock in certain natural forest.
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Con’t
• These types of questions can be addressed through statistical
hypothesis testing, which is a decision-making process for
evaluating claims about a population.
• In hypothesis testing, the researcher must define the population
under study, state the particular hypotheses that will be investigated,
give the significance level, select a sample from the population,
collect the data, perform the calculations required for the statistical
test, and reach a conclusion.
• The three methods used to test hypotheses are:
1. The traditional(rejection region) method
2. The P-value method
3. The confidence interval method
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Con’t
• Basic Terms:
• A Statistical hypothesis is a conjecture/guess about a population
parameter. This conjecture may or may not be true.
• A Statistical test is a test or procedure used to evaluate a
statistical hypothesis and its value depends on sample data.
• A Test statistic: is a statistic whose value serves to determine
whether to reject or accept the hypothesis to be tested. It is a
random variable.
• Type of Hypothesis: There are two types of statistical hypotheses
for each situation: the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.
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Con’t
Type and Size of Errors:
• In the hypothesis-testing situation,
there are four possible outcomes.
• In reality, the null hypothesis may or
may not be true, and a decision is
made to reject or not reject it on the
basis of the data obtained from a
sample. However, there are two
possibilities for a correct decision and
two possibilities for an incorrect
decision.
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Con’t
Type and Size of Errors:
• There are two type of error in hypothesis testing which are:
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General Steps in Hypothesis Testing
• Step 1: State the Statistical hypothesis
• Step 2: Select the significance level (α)
• Step 3: Determine appropriate test statistics.
• Step 4: Calculate the test statistic.
• Step 5: State the decision rule and find critical value.
• Step 6: Make a decision.
• Step 7: Make a conclusion and summarize the result.
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Hypothesis testing of Population mean µ
• Suppose the assumed or hypothesized value of µ is denoted by
µ0 , then we can formulate two sided and one sided hypothesis.
• The null hypothesis is always stated using the equals sign,
• The alternative hypothesis, should be stated as i.e., using < or >
or ≠.
• Because of this, the alternative hypothesis is sometimes called
the research hypothesis.
• 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0 𝑣𝑠 𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 (two tailed )
• 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0 𝑣𝑠 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0 (right tailed)
• 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0 𝑣𝑠 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 (left tailed)
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Con’t
• The following table shows some common phrases that are used
in hypotheses and conjectures, and the corresponding symbols.
• This table should be helpful in translating verbal conjectures
into mathematical symbols.
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Con’t
• Exercise: State the null and alternative hypotheses for each
conjecture.
1. A researcher thinks that if expectant mothers use vitamin
pills, the birth weight of the babies will increase. The
average birth weight of the population is 8.6 pounds.
2. An engineer hypothesizes that the mean number of defects
can be decreased in a manufacturing process of compact
disks by using robots instead of humans for certain tasks.
The mean number of defective disks per 1000 is 18.
3. A psychologist feels that playing soft music during a test
will change the results of the test. The psychologist is not
sure whether the grades will be higher or lower. In the
past, the mean of the scores was 73.
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Con’t
• There are two specific statistical tests used for hypotheses
concerning populations mean (𝜇): the z test and the t test.
• We will explain in detail the hypothesis-testing procedure along
with the z test and the t test.
• We also explain, those two statistical tests : the z test is used when
𝜎 is known or large sample case, and the t test is used when 𝜎 is
unknown.
• Many hypotheses are tested using a statistical test based on the
following general formula:
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z test for 𝝁
• z test is defined formally as follows.
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Con’t
• Decision Rule: After specifying level of
significance (α), we have the following regions
(critical and acceptance) on the standard normal
distribution corresponding to the hypothesis.
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Con’t
• the most commonly used z-vales corresponding to
significance levels.
• Example: Wind Speed A researcher claims that the average wind
speed in a certain city is 8 miles per hour. A sample of 32 days has
an average wind speed of 8.2 miles per hour. The standard
deviation of the population is 0.6 mile per hour. At 𝛼 =0.05, is
there enough evidence to reject the claim?
• Exercise: Student Expenditures The average expenditure per
student (based on average daily attendance) for a certain school
year was $10,337 with a population standard deviation of $1560.
A survey for the next school year of 150 randomly selected
students resulted in a sample mean of $10,798. Do these results
indicate that the average expenditure has changed? Choose your
own level of significance.
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t test for 𝝁
• When the population standard deviation is unknown and the
sample size is small, the z test is not normally used for testing
hypotheses involving means. Instead, he t test, is used. The
distribution of the population should be approximately normal.
• When you test hypotheses by using the t test (traditional method),
follow the same procedure as for the z test, except use t-table.
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Example
1. Water Consumption The Old Farmer’s Almanac stated that the
average consumption of water per person per day was 123
gallons. To test the hypothesis that this figure may no longer be
true, a researcher randomly selected 16 people and found that they
used on average 119 gallons per day and s = 5.3. At 𝛼 = 0.05, is
there enough evidence to say that the Old Farmer’s Almanac
figure might no longer be correct?
2. Average Family Size The average family size was reported as
3.18. A random sample of families in a particular school district
resulted in the following family sizes:
5 4 5 4 4 3 6 4 3 3 5 6 3 3 2 7 4 5 2 2 2 3 5 2
At 𝛼 = 0.01, does the average family size differ from
the national average?
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Hypothesis testing of Population mean p
(z test for 𝒑)
• A hypothesis test involving a population proportion can be
considered as a binomial experiment when there are only two
outcomes and the probability of a success does not change from
trial to trial.
• Since a normal distribution can be used to approximate the
binomial distribution when np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5, the standard normal
distribution can be used to test hypotheses for proportions.
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Example
1. Natural Gas Heat The Energy Information Administration
reported that 51.7% of homes in the United States were heated by
natural gas. A random sample of 200 homes found that 115 were
heated by natural gas. Does the evidence support the claim, or has
the percentage changed? Use 𝛼 = 0.05.
2. Exercise to Reduce Stress A survey by Men’s Health magazine
stated that 14% of men said they used exercise to reduce stress.
Use 𝛼 = 0.01. A random sample of 100 men was selected, and 10
said that they used exercise to relieve stress. Could the results be
generalized to all adult Americans?
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P-values
• During hypothesis testing using rejection region method, first
select the significance level α, then after compute the value of test
statistic, H0 is rejected if the value falls in the rejection region and
is otherwise not rejected.
• The decision based on rejection region makes no idea about
whether the computed value of the test statistic was just barely in
the rejection region or whether it was very far into this region.
• Another way of reaching a conclusion in a hypothesis testing
analysis is based on calculation of a certain probability called a
P-value. This approach avoid the above difficulties and has been
adopted widely in practice.
• Definition: The P-value is the smallest level of significance that
would lead to rejection of the null hypothesis H0 with the given
data.
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Decision rule based on the P-value
• Select a significance level α first (as before, the desired type I
error probability). Then
• Reject H0 if, P − value ≤ 𝛼
• Do not reject H0 if, P − value > 𝛼
• For normal distribution tests (Z test) it is relatively easy to
compute the P-value. The P-value is:
• Where Φ(Z) is the standard normal cumulative distribution
function, and Zcal is computed test statistic value.
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Example
1. An instructor of forestry claims that more than 25% of all
student luck of practical skill in forest science. A sample of 200
students in WGCF showed that 63 had some technical efficiency
problem. At 𝛼 = 0.05 , is there enough evidence to support the
instructor claim? Use the P-value method.
2. Warming and Ice Melt The average depth of the Hudson Bay is
305 feet. Climatologists were interested in seeing if the effects of
warming and ice melt were affecting the water level. Fifty-five
measurements over a period of weeks yielded a sample mean of
306.2 feet. The population variance is known to be 3.57. Can it be
concluded at the 0.05 level of significance that the average depth
has increased? Use the P-value method.
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Thank You!!!
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