Syed Babar Ali

School of Science and Engineering

EE 556 Power System Planning – Fall 2018

Instructor: Fiaz A. Chaudhry, Ph.D., P.Eng.

Power System Planning
Course Outline
 Electric Power Systems, Planning and Structures
 Economic Concepts and Evaluation Criteria
 Reliability and Availability
 Demand (Load) Forecasting
 Generation Planning, (Costs, Characteristics, Screening
Criteria and Options, Simulations)
 Transmission Planning (Base Case Development, Steady-
state analysis, transient stability analysis)
 Economic and Financial Analysis
 Tariff Structures
 Environmental Impact and Social Impact Analysis
Lecture 02 - Electric System Planning
Electric System Planning
Objective: Optimum Cost vs Adequate Reliability
Cost ($)
250000

Total Cost to Consumers

200000

150000
Power System Cost

100000

50000
Outage Cost

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2
System Reliability
Optimum Range
Electric System Planning
Objective: Optimum Cost and Adequate Reliability
 Available (easily accessible, abundant and selection of
appropriate technology)

 Exploit Indigenous energy sources as much as possible to reduce fuel

import bill
 Adequate supply sources at appropriate locations requiring minimum T&D
Infrastructure
 Capability to meet variable load demand (Power and Energy) at all times

 Affordable (cost effective generation technology and

environment friendly)
 Least cost or optimum cost for generation resources
 Least impact on environment
Electric System Planning
Objective: Optimum Cost and Adequate Reliability
 Reliable (Integrated power system: Generation, Transmission
and Distribution facilities)
 Planning, design and implementation
 Diversified energy sources to avoid dependency on particular
fuel(s)/technology
 Adequate redundancy of generation, transmission and distribution
facilities to remain stable under forced outages (conforming to
applicable performance standards)
 Timely construction of facilities with quality material

 Operation of power system

 Optimal generation dispatch and control
 Respecting system reliability and security limits

 Proactive Asset Management for maximum availability

Electric System Planning
Operational Requirements:
 Must be able to meet the continually changing load demand for
active and reactive power (electricity can not be conveniently
stored in sufficient quantities)
 Should supply energy at minimum cost and with minimum
ecological impact
 Meet certain minimum performance standards with regard to
 (a) constancy of frequency
 (b) constancy of voltage and
 (c) level of redundancy and reliability
Electric System Planning
Planning Process
 Review existing power system and planning criteria
 Forecast the future load demand over a certain planning horizon
 Assess the extent to which the existing facilities can meet the
forecast demand economically and reliably
 Investigate the new facilities required
 Evaluate the associated system costs including capital investment,
fuel charges, and operation and maintenance costs
 Assess the environmental and social impacts

 Identify the least cost or optimum means to supply the demand

at a suitable level of reliability
 Electric System Planning
Planning Process Generation

Transmission

Review Power System Distribution

Economic
Financial
Prepare Study Criteria & Assumptions
Environmental
Social
Develop Demand Forecast

Revise Sensitivity Develop Generation plan

Assumptions Analysis
Develop Transmission plan

Develop Distribution Plan

Economic, Financial, Environmental Build /Procure

and Social Impact Analysis Project
Criteria and Assumptions
 Study Horizon
 Load Forecasting Parameters and Approaches
 Reliability Criteria for Generation,Transmission and Distribution
Systems
 Economic and Financial Analysis Parameters
 Environmental and Social Impact Analysis Parameters
 Stakeholders/Public Consultations
Demand Forecast
 Medium Term Demand Forecast
 Long Term Demand Forecast
 Generation Planning Considerations
 Base Load Generation  Demand Side Management
◦ Technology, efficiency, least cost and ◦ Peak Shaving Opportunities
highest reliability ◦ Interruptible Loads for Spinning
◦ Abundant fuel availability Reserve
◦ Utilization assessment (must run)
◦ Renewable energy penetration  Off-Grid Supply Analysis
◦ Remote area supply
 Load Following Capability ◦ Micro Grid for small
◦ Appropriate technology (water storage communities
or fossil fuel)
◦ High ramp rate  Net-Metering
◦ Low start-up costs ◦ Roof top Solar
◦ Short down time ◦ Battery storage

 Peaking Plants
◦ Low CAPEX
◦ Fast start and emergency response
◦ Low duty cycle
Screening Supply Options
 Nuclear, Coal, Oil, Petroleum Coke
 Coal Gasification

 Hydro (run-of-river, storage, pumped storage)

 Combustion Turbines (natural gas, LNG, RLNG, CNG, diesel)
 Combined Cycles (natural gas, LNG, RLNG, CNG, diesel)
 Diesel (low, medium and high speed)
 Storage Plants (CAES, battery banks)
 Life Extension (Refurbishment)
 Renewables (small hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, biomass,
Bagasse, etc.)
Screening Criteria
Key Parameters

 Resources Availability
 Technical Aspects (commercial availability or development stage)
 Lead Time, Licensing Requirements and Risks
 Operational Characteristics
 Costs

 Site Environmental Requirements and Emissions

 Social Impacts
Operational Characteristics
 Available Sizes
 Type of Load Carrying Capability

 Dispatching Capability
 Minimum Output Requirement
 Automatic Generation Control (AGC) Capability
 Load Following Capability
 Peaking Capability
 Forced Outage Rate
 Planned Maintenance Outage Rate
 Heat Rate
 Economic Life
Site Requirements and Emissions
 Land Use (plant site, solid waste disposal, fuel mining, reservoir)
 Water Use (fresh water, cooling water, fuel mining, fuel
processing)
 Bio-diversity (rare and endangered flora and fauna)
 Environmental Capacity (air and water)
 Atmospheric Emissions (SO2, NOx, CO2, mercury, particulates,
radio nuclides)
 Aquatic Discharges (heat discharge, waste water, fuel mining, fuel
processing, radio nuclides)
 Solid Waste (coal ash, scrubber wastes, by-product, fuel mining
wastes, spent fuel, radioactive wastes)
Costs
 Total Capital Investment Including Both Generation and
Interconnection to Grid
 Compulsory Capital Contribution to Grid Reinforcement
 Loss factor
 Operation and Maintenance Costs
 Fuel Charges (Including Water Power Taxes/Charges)
 Emission Offset Prices
 Other Major Costs During the Project Life (Major Replacement
Costs)
 Decommissioning Costs
 Others
Transmission Planning Approach
 Decide horizon year and intermediate years based on the load
forecast and generation plan
 Assess bulk interface flows and perform conceptual analysis
 Incorporate generation expansion plan and substation-wise load
forecast in existing system study model
 Prepare preliminary transmission expansion plan
 Test against the set criteria until satisfied
 Prepare preliminary station layouts and Unit Cost Estimates
 Recommend bulk transmission expansion plan
 Estimate costs for recommended transmission plan
 Provide cost input to overall power system plan
Transmission Planning Criteria
Steady-state Performance
 1. Voltage Profiles:
 Normal Operating Conditions 95% - 105%
 Emergency and Temporary Conditions 90% - 110%

 2. Conductor Ratings:
 Ambient Temperature = 40 ºC
 Normal Rating: Conductor Temperature = 90 ºC
 Emergency Rating: Conductor Temperature = 120 ºC
 (Other elements in the system should not be loaded beyond their loading
limits)
 3. Loss of Loads
 No Loss of Load for a Single Contingency
 Single Contingency means loss of any one element in the system such as a Line,
a Transformer or a Generating unit
 In the context of Loss of Load criteria, an outage of double circuit line built on
a single tower may be considered as Single Contingency
Transmission Planning Criteria
Transient Stability Performance
Contingency Tests:
With all lines and transformers in service prior to fault:
a) Fault - Three Phase; Duration – Normal Clearing; Outage – Single Element

Should the system survive this fault condition, it shall be assumed that system stability is
established

b) Fault - Single Phase to Ground; Duration – Delayed Clearing; Outage – Multiple

Elements

c) Fault - Simultaneous Single Phase to Ground on both circuits of a D/C Line; Duration –
Normal Clearing; Outage – Multiple Elements

With One line or transformer out of service prior to fault:

d) Fault - Single Phase to Ground; Duration – Normal Clearing; Outage – Single
Element
Short and Long Term Transmission
Planning Decision Making
Planning Activity Short-Term Transmission Plan

Cost out Overall Plan Options, Reliability Design Criteria,

Decisions Required Acquire Switching Station Property, Line Right of Way, specially
in urban areas near rapidly growing cities, New Generation
Connections

Dependant on Lead Time for Financing Projects 4 To 8 years

Time Span of Study
ahead

Transmission Transformation, Lines In Service Year Needed Capacity

System Conductor,Voltage, Terminal Buses, Station Design, Insulation
Analysis Required Coordination

Load Flow, Optimal Power Flow, Capacitor Placement

Analytical Tools Optimization, Transient Stability, Dynamic Stability, Short Circuit,
Area Reliability, Transients Program for Specifying Insulation
Coordination, Harmonic Analysis, Resource Analysis, Economic
Analysis, Composite Reliability Evaluation
Short and Long Term Transmission
Planning Decision Making
Planning Activity Long-Term Transmission Plan

Decisions Required When and Where and How Much More New
Transmission Capacity be Needed

Time Span of Study 8 To 20 Years ahead

Transmission Transformation, Line Series Compensation, Approximate in

System Service Year, Geographic Terminal Locations,Voltage, Power
Analysis Required Transfer Capacity Needed to Transport Alternative Generation
Scenarios, Maximum Short Circuit Levels for Station Design

Load flow, Optimal Power Flow, Capacitor Placement

Analytical Tools Optimization, Transient Stability, Dynamic Stability, Short Circuit,
Area Reliability, Electromagnetic Program for Insulation
Coordination, Economic Analysis, Economic Analysis, Reliability
Evaluation
Distribution Planning Studies
 Downstream Main Feeders from a Distribution Transformer
 Distribution Transformer

 LV Lines and Cables

 Feeders
 Metering Equipment
 Capacitors, Regulators, Reclosers and Switchers
 Distribution Losses
 Losses Assessment
 Technical Losses
 Non Technical Losses
 Losses in Billing System
Economic Analysis
 Perspective of the National Good – Positive Benefit to Society
 Costs expressed in Economic Terms

 Exclude General Inflation, Taxes & Subsidies

 Foreign Goods use SCF (standard conversion factor)
 Interest during Construction
 Measures of Project Worth
 Cost of Unserved Energy
 Customer Willingness-to-Pay
 Tariff Implications
Financial Analysis
 Enterprise Perspective – Positive Return to Project Proponent(s)
 Can address individual project or proponent

 Costs expressed in Financial Terms

 Typically Includes Escalation, Taxes & Subsidies
 Debt / Equity Considerations
 Capital Distribution Flow and Interest During Construction
 Annual Expenses Including Debt Payment, O&M, Fuel, Emissions
Offset Charges, etc.

 Annual Gross Revenue Including Emissions Credits

Financial Analysis - Continued
 Simple Reporting or Pro-forma Statements
 Tax Calculations

 Measures of Project Worth

 Financial Ratios
 Impact on Tariff Design
 Impact of Tariff Changes
Environmental Impact Analysis
 Air Quality (including system wide annual emissions and annual
emission caps)
 Aquatic Environment
 Noise and Vibration
 Flora and Fauna
 Land Use, Landscape and Visual Impacts
 Soils, Geology and Hydrology
 Solid Waste Management
Social Impact Analysis
 Job Creation
 Economic Development

 Traffic
 Archaeology, Historical and Cultural Heritage
 Resettlement
 Natural Disaster Risks
 Major Accident Hazards
 Public Health Effects
 Occupational Health and safety
 Associated Infrastructure
 Thank you

[email protected]

+92 321 999-0780