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Scarsin Forecast: Scenario 1 - Worst Case

The document summarizes forecasts from the Scarsin Decision Support System for COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths in three scenarios: 1) A worst case scenario predicts case levels may rise starting in July 2021 and exceed levels from the old Red/Control Zone. 2) A best case scenario could prevent over 1,000 cases, 60 hospital admissions, and 4 deaths compared to a scenario with increased delta variant transmission and reduced precautions. 3) The next few weeks will provide insight into the impact of Ontario's reopening and potential spread of the delta variant.

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The Hamilton Spectator
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2K views3 pages

Scarsin Forecast: Scenario 1 - Worst Case

The document summarizes forecasts from the Scarsin Decision Support System for COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths in three scenarios: 1) A worst case scenario predicts case levels may rise starting in July 2021 and exceed levels from the old Red/Control Zone. 2) A best case scenario could prevent over 1,000 cases, 60 hospital admissions, and 4 deaths compared to a scenario with increased delta variant transmission and reduced precautions. 3) The next few weeks will provide insight into the impact of Ontario's reopening and potential spread of the delta variant.

Uploaded by

The Hamilton Spectator
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Scarsin Forecast

Scenario 1 – Worst Case

Rate (Cases per 100,000 population)


Reported Cases

Old Red/
Control Zone

Data Source: Scarsin Decision Support System retrieved June 11, 2021
Key Messages:
 Forecast continues to predict we will reach case levels below the old Red/Control Zone with a potential “swell”
starting in July 2021.

Public Health Services


Office of the Medical Officer of Health
16
Scarsin Forecast
Scenario Comparisons – COVID-19 Cases

Data Source: Scarsin Decision Support System, scenarios created June 11, 2021

Key Messages:
 Best case scenario could result in the prevention of 1053 cases between June 14, 2021 and July 31, 2021, as compared to
more aggressive transmission of delta variant and reduced public health precautions. The next few weeks will provide
additional insight on the impact of Ontario’s reopening and potential spread of the delta variant.

Public Health Services


Office of the Medical Officer of Health
17
Scarsin Forecast
Scenario Comparisons – COVID-19 Hospital Admissions and Deaths

Data Source: Scarsin Decision Support System, scenarios created June 11, 2021

Key Messages:
 Best case scenario could result in the prevention of 62 hospital admissions and 4 deaths between June 14, 2021 and July
31, 2021, as compared to more aggressive transmission of delta variant and reduced public health precautions.

Public Health Services


Office of the Medical Officer of Health
18

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