PHÂN TÍCH ĐỊNH LƯỢNG TRONG QUẢN TRỊ

CHƯƠNG 4: MÔ HÌNH HÀNG ĐỢI

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Nội dung bài giảng

1. Waiting Line Costs

2. Characteristics of a Queuing System

3. Single-Channel Queuing Model M/M/1

4. Multichannel Queuing Model M/M/m

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1. Waiting Line Costs
Waiting line problems
Most waiting line problems are centered on the question of finding the
ideal level of services that a firm should provide. For example,
Supermarkets must decide how many cash register checkout positions
should be opened
Gasoline stations must decide how many pumps should be opened and
how many attendants should be on duty
Manufacturing plants must determine the optimal number of mechanics
to have on duty each shift to repair machines that break down
Banks must decide how many teller windows to keep open to serve
customers during various hours of the day

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Waiting line problems
Two extreme cases
If a firm can retain a large staff and provide many service facilities —>
Customers are kept happy with the quick response and appreciate the
convenience, however, can become expensive
If a firm retain the minimum number of staff and service —> This
keeps the service cost down but may result in customer dissatisfaction.
Therefore
The solution to a queuing problem may require management to make a
trade-off between the increased cost of providing better service and the
decreased waiting costs derived from providing that service

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Example:

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Bài tập
The Maitland Furniture store gets an average of 50 customers per shift. The manager of Maitland
wants to calculate whether she should hire 1, 2, 3, or 4 salespeople. She has determined that
average waiting times will be 7 minutes with 1 salesperson, 4 minutes with 2 salespeople, 3
minutes with 3 salespeople, and 2 minutes with 4 salespeople. She has estimated the cost per
minute that customers wait at $1. The cost per salesperson per shift (including benefits) is $70.
How many salespeople should be hired?

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Solution

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Bài tập
The Schmedley Discount Department Store has approximately 300 customers shopping in its store
between 9 A.M. and 5 P.M. on Saturdays. In deciding how many cash registers to keep open each
Saturday, Schmedley’s manager considers two factors: customer waiting time (and the associated
waiting cost) and the service costs of employing additional checkout clerks. Checkout clerks are
paid an average of $8 per hour. When only one is on duty, the waiting time per customer is about
10 minutes (or 1/6 hour); when two clerks are on duty, the average checkout time is 6 minutes per
person; 4 minutes when three clerks are working; and 3 minutes when four clerks are on duty.

Schmedley’s management has conducted customer satisfaction surveys and has been able to
estimate that the store suffers approximately $10 in lost sales and goodwill for every hour of
customer time spent waiting in checkout lines. Using the information provided, determine the
optimal number of clerks to have on duty each Saturday to minimize the store’s total expected
cost.

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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2. Characteristics of a Queuing System
Three Parts of Queuing System
(1) The arrivals or inputs to the system (sometimes referred to as the
calling population)
(2) The queue or the waiting line
(3) The service facility

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Three Parts of Queuing System
(1) The arrivals or inputs to the system (sometimes referred to as the
calling population)
1. SIZE OF THE CALLING POPULATION
2. PATTERN OF ARRIVALS AT THE SYSTEM
3. BEHAVIOR OF THE ARRIVALS
(2) The queue or the waiting line
1. QUEUE LENGTH
2. QUEUE DISCIPLINE
(3) The service facility
1. BASIC QUEUING SYSTEM CONFIGURATIONS
2. SERVICE TIME DISTRIBUTION

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(1) Arrival Characteristics
1. SIZE OF THE CALLING POPULATION
Unlimited (infinite) (for example, cars arriving at a highway tollbooth,
shoppers arriving at a supermarket)
Limited (finite)
2. PATTERN OF ARRIVALS AT THE SYSTEM
Known schedule (for example, one patient every 15 minutes or one
student for advising every half hour)
Randomly (for example, Poisson distribution)
3. BEHAVIOR OF THE ARRIVALS
Patient customer (who wait in the queue until they are served and do not
switch between lines)
Balking customer (who refuse to join the waiting line because it is too
long to suit their needs or interests)
Reneging customers (who enter the queue but then become impatient
and leave without completing their transaction)

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(2) Waiting Line Characteristics
1. QUEUE LENGTH
Limited queue length (for example, a small restaurant that has only 10
tables and can serve no more than 50 diners an evening)
Unlimited queue length (for example, in the case of the tollbooth serving
arriving automobiles)
2. QUEUE DISCIPLINE
First-in, first-out (FIFO) (for example, in a hospital emergency room or
an express checkout line at a supermarket)
Last-in, first-out (LIFO)
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(3) Service Facility Characteristics
1. BASIC QUEUING SYSTEM CONFIGURATIONS
Single-channel system (for example, drive-through fast-food restaurant)
Multichannel system (for example, many airline ticket counters)
Single-phase system (for example, a fast-food restaurant in which the
person who takes your order also brings you the food and takes your
money)
Multiphase system (for example, the restaurant requires you to place
your order at one station, pay at a second, and pick up the food at a
third service stop)
2. SERVICE TIME DISTRIBUTION
Service time is constant (for example, a machine-performed service
operation such as an automatic car wash)
Service times are randomly distributed (for example, the exponential
distribution, the negative exponential probability distribution)

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Four Basic Queuing System Configurations

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Kendall Notation
Arrival distr. / Service time distr. / Number of service channels
M = Poisson distribution for number of occurrences (or exponential
times)
D = constant (deterministic) rate
G = general distribution with mean and variance known

Example:

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3. Single-Channel Queuing Model M/M/1
Assumptions of Queuing Model M/M/1

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Queuing Equations

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Queuing Equations (continue)

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Ví dụ: Arnold’s Muffler Shop
We now apply these formulas to the case of Arnold’s Muffler Shop in New Orleans. Arnold’s
mechanic, Reid Blank, is able to install new mufflers at an average rate of 3 per hour, or about 1
every 20 minutes. Customers needing this service arrive at the shop on the average of 2 per hour.
Larry Arnold, the shop owner, studied queuing models in an MBA program and feels that all seven
of the conditions for a single-channel model are met.
Compute the characteristics of the queuing system, for example, waiting times, idle times,
queue lengths, and so on.

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Solution

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Tính toán trên bảng tính EXCEL

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Costs in Queuing Model
The total service cost

The total waiting cost

The total cost

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Ví dụ: Arnold’s Muffler Shop
Let us consider the situation for Arnold’s Muffler Shop.
Compute the total waiting cost, the total service cost, and the total cost of Arnold’s Muffler
Shop

Solution

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Ví dụ: Arnold’s Muffler Shop
Arnold finds out through the muffler business grapevine that the Rusty Muffler, a cross-town
competitor, employs a mechanic named Jimmy Smith who can efficiently install new mufflers at
the rate of 4 per hour. Larry Arnold contacts Smith and inquires as to his interest in switching
employers. Smith says that he would consider leaving the Rusty Muffler but only if he were paid a
$20 per hour salary. Arnold has to decide that it may be worthwhile to fire Blank and replace him
with the speedier but more expensive Smith.
How would Arnold decide?

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Solution

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Bài tập
Marty Schatz owns and manages a chili dog and soft drink store near the campus. Although Marty
can service 30 customers per hour on the average (µ), he only gets 20 customers per hour (λ).
Because Marty could wait on 50% more customers than actually visit his store, it doesn’t make
sense to him that he should have any waiting lines.
Marty hires you to examine the situation and to determine some characteristics of his queue. After
looking into the problem, you find this to be an M/M/1 system. What are your findings?

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Solution

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Bài tập
From historical data, Harry’s Car Wash estimates that dirty cars arrive at the rate of 10 per hour
all day Saturday. With a crew working the wash line, Harry figures that cars can be cleaned at the
rate of one every 5 minutes. One car at a time is cleaned in this example of a single-channel
waiting line. Assuming Poisson arrivals and exponential service times, find the
(a) average number of cars in line
(b) average time a car waits before it is washed
(c) average time a car spends in the service system
(d) utilization rate of the car wash
(e) probability that no cars are in the system

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Bài tập
Mike Dreskin manages a large Los Angeles movie theater complex called Cinema I, II, III, and IV.
Each of the four auditoriums plays a different film; the schedule is set so that starting times are
staggered to avoid the large crowds that would occur if all four movies started at the same time.
The theater has a single ticket booth and a cashier who can maintain an average service rate of 280
movie patrons per hour. Service times are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Arrivals on
a typically active day are Poisson distributed and average 210 per hour. To determine the efficiency
of the current ticket operation, Mike wishes to examine several queue operating characteristics.
(a) Find the average number of moviegoers waiting in line to purchase a ticket
(b) What percentage of the time is the cashier busy?
(c) What is the average time that a customer spends in the system?
(d) What is the average time spent waiting in line to get to the ticket window?
(e) What is the probability that there are more than two people in the system? More than three
people? More than four?

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Bài tập
A university cafeteria line in the student center is a self-serve facility in which students select the
food items they want and then form a single line to pay the cashier. Students arrive at a rate of
about four per minute according to a Poisson distribution. The single cashier ringing up sales takes
about 12 seconds per customer, following an exponential distribution.
(a) What is the probability that there are more than two students in the system? More than
three students? More than four?
(b) What is the probability that the system is empty?
(c) How long will the average student have to wait before reaching the cashier?
(d) What is the expected number of students in the queue?
(e) What is the average number in the system?
(f) If a second cashier is added (who works at the same pace), how will the operating
characteristics computed in parts (b), (c), (d), and (e) change? Assume that customers wait
in a single line and go to the first available cashier.

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Bài tập
The wheat harvesting season in the American Midwest is short, and most farmers deliver their
truckloads of wheat to a giant central storage bin within a two-week span. Because of this,
wheat-filled trucks waiting to unload and return to the fields have been known to back up for a
block at the receiving bin. The central bin is owned cooperatively, and it is to every farmer’s
benefit to make the unloading/storage process as efficient as possible. The cost of grain
deterioration caused by unloading delays, the cost of truck rental, and idle driver time are
significant concerns to the cooperative members. Although farmers have difficulty quantifying crop
damage, it is easy to assign a waiting and unloading cost for truck and driver of $18 per hour. The
storage bin is open and operated 16 hours per day, 7 days per week, during the harvest season and
is capable of unloading 35 trucks per hour according to an exponential distribution. Full trucks
arrive all day long (during the hours the bin is open) at a rate of about 30 per hour, following a
Poisson pattern. To help the cooperative get a handle on the problem of lost time while trucks are
waiting in line or unloading at the bin, find the
(a) average number of trucks in the unloading system.
(b) average time per truck in the system.
(c) utilization rate for the bin area.
(d) probability that there are more than three trucks in the system at any given time.
(e) total daily cost to the farmers of having their trucks tied up in the unloading process.
The cooperative, as mentioned, uses the storage bin only two weeks per year. Farmers estimate
that enlarging the bin would cut unloading costs by 50% next year. It will cost $9,000 to do so
during the offseason. Would it be worth the cooperative’s while to enlarge the storage area?

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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4. Multichannel Queuing Model M/M/m
Assumptions of Multichannel Queuing Model M/M/m

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Queuing Equations

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Queuing Equations (continue)

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Ví dụ: Arnold’s Muffler Shop
Earlier, Larry Arnold examined two options. He could retain his current mechanic, Reid Blank, at a
total expected cost of $653 per day; or he could fire Blank and hire a slightly more expensive but
faster worker named Jimmy Smith. With Smith on board, service system costs could be reduced to
$360 per day.

A third option is now explored. Arnold finds that at minimal after-tax cost he can open a second
garage bay in which mufflers can be installed. Instead of firing his first mechanic, Blank, he would
hire a second worker. The new mechanic would be expected to install mufflers at the same rate as
Blank - about µ = 3 per hour. Customers, who would still arrive at the rate of λ = 2 per hour,
would wait in a single line until one of the two mechanics is free.
How this option can compare with the old single-channel waiting line system?

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Solution

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Tính toán trên bảng tính EXCEL

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Bài tập
Marty Schatz owns and manages a chili dog and soft drink store near the campus. Although Marty
can service 30 customers per hour on the average (µ), he only gets 20 customers per hour (λ).
Because Marty could wait on 50% more customers than actually visit his store, it doesn’t make
sense to him that he should have any waiting lines.
Marty agreed that these figures seemed to represent his approximate business situation. You are
quite surprised at the length of the lines and elicit from him an estimated value of the customer’s
waiting time (in the queue, not being waited on) at 10 cents per minute. During the 12 hours that
he is open he gets (12 × 20) = 240 customers. The average customer is in a queue 4 minutes, so
the total customer waiting time is (240 × 4 minutes) = 960 minutes. The value of 960 minutes is
($ 0.10)×(960 minutes) = $96. You tell Marty that not only is 10 cents per minute quite
conservative, but he could probably save most of that $96 of customer ill will if he hired another
salesclerk. After much haggling, Marty agrees to provide you with all the chili dogs you can eat
during a week-long period in exchange for your analysis of the results of having two clerks wait on
the customers.
Assuming that Marty hires one additional salesclerk whose service rate equals Marty’s rate,
complete the analysis.

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Solution

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Bài tập
Bill First, general manager of Worthmore Department Store, has estimated that every hour of
customer time spent waiting in line for the sales clerk to become available costs the store $100 in
lost sales and goodwill. Customers arrive at the checkout counter at the rate of 30 per hour, and
the average service time is 3 minutes. The Poisson distribution describes the arrivals and the
service times are exponentially distributed. The number of sales clerks can be 2, 3, or 4, with each
one working at the same rate. Bill estimates the salary and benefits for each clerk to be $10 per
hour. The store is open 10 hours per day.
(a) Find the average time in the line if 2, 3, and 4 clerks are used.
(b) What is the total time spent waiting in line each day if 2, 3, and 4 clerks are used?
(c) Calculate the total of the daily waiting cost and the service cost if 2, 3, and 4 clerks are
used. What is the minimum total daily cost?

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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Bài tập
Billy’s Bank is the only bank in a small town in Arkansas. On a typical Friday, an average of 10
customers per hour arrive at the bank to transact business. There is one single teller at the bank,
and the average time required to transact business is 4 minutes. It is assumed that service times
can be described by the exponential distribution. Although this is the only bank in town, some
people in the town have begun using the bank in a neighboring town about 20 miles away. A single
line would be used, and the customer at the front of the line would go to the first available bank
teller. If a single teller at Billy’s is used, find
(a) the average time in the line.
(b) the average number in the line.
(c) the average time in the system.
(d) the average number in the system.
(e) the probability that the bank is empty.

Billy is considering adding a second teller (who would work at the same rate as the first) to reduce
the waiting time for customers, and he assumes that this will cut the waiting time in half. If a
second teller is added, find
(f) the average time in the line.
(g) the average number in the line.
(h) the average time in the system.
(i) the average number in the system.
(j) the probability that the bank is empty.
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Solution: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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THANK YOU for YOUR ATTENTION

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