Introduction

to Statistical Analysis

Pawel Skuza
Statistical Consultant
eResearch@Flinders / Central Library

Pawel Skuza 2013

• Please note that the workshop is aimed to be a brief
introduction to the topic and this PowerPoint is
primarily designed to support the flow of the lecture.
It cannot be seen as either an exclusive or
exhaustive resource on the statistical concepts
which are introduced in this course. You are
encouraged to refer to peer-reviewed books or
papers that are listed throughout the presentation.
• It is acknowledged that a number of slides have
been adapted from presentations produced by the
previous statistical consultant (Kylie Lange) and a
colleague with whom I worked with in the past (Dr
Kelvin Gregory).

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Introductory Level

Statistical • Introduction to IBM SPSS

• Introduction to Statistical Analysis
Consulting IBM SPSS - Intermediate Level
Website • Understanding Your Data (Descriptive
Statistics, Graphs and Custom Tables)
• Correlation and Multiple Regression
• Logistic Regression and Survival
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edu.au/library/rese • Basic Statistical Techniques for
arch/eresearch/stati Difference Questions
• Advanced Statistical Techniques for
stics-consulting/ Difference Questions
• Longitudinal Data Analysis -
or go to Flinders Repeated Measures ANOVA
• Categorical Data Analysis
University Website
A-Z IBM SPSS - Advanced Level
Index S • Structural Equation Modelling using Amos
Statistical • Linear Mixed Models
Consultant • Longitudinal Data Analysis - Mixed and
Latent Variable Growth Curve Models
• Scale Development
• Complex Sample Survey Design / ABS and
FaHCSIA Confidentialised Datasets
Pawel Skuza 2013
Introduction to Statistical Analysis

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What you will learn

• A brief introduction to a border framework of undertaking
quantitatively orientated research
• Measures of central tendency and dispersion
• Standard errors and confidence intervals
• Introduction to hypothesis testing, including interpreting p-
values
• Concepts of effect size and power
• How to select which statistical method is appropriate for
typical research questions
Pawel Skuza 2013
 What is ‘Statistics’ ?
sta·tis·tics (st -t s t ks)
n.
1. (used with a sing. verb) The mathematics of the collection,
organization, and interpretation of numerical data, especially the
analysis of population characteristics by inference from sampling.
2. (used with a pl. verb) Numerical data.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Statistics

Harvard President Lawrence Lowell wrote in 1909 that

statistics, "like veal pies, are good if you know the
person that made them, and are sure of the
ingredients".
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Pawel Skuza 2013

 Framework
for
conducting
research

Reproduced from
Health Services
Research Methods
(Shi, 2008, p. 36)

Pawel Skuza 2013

Population
–A statistical population is a set of
data corresponding to the entire
collection of units about which
information is sought
–Population data has variable
information from every individual of
interest

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 The Population

The population must be defined explicitly

before the study begins and the research
hypotheses/questions specify the population
being studied.

Defined by certain characteristics:

– Inclusion criteria
– Exclusion criteria

Care must be taken not to generalize beyond

the population.

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

Sample
–A sample from a statistical
populations is the subset of a data
that are actually collected in the
course of an investigation
–Sample data has variable
information from only some of the
individuals of interest

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

Sampling Error
• The sampling error reflects the fact
that the result we get from our
sample is not going to be exactly
equal to the result we would have
got if we had been able to measure
the entire population. And each
possible sample we could take
would give a different result.

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

Samples and Population

(Random) Sample
Statistics summarize
Inferences from sample
characteristics
to population

Population
Parameters summarize
characteristics

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

Types of Samples

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Non-probability /
Convenience Samples
• Samples obtained by accidental or convenience samples
are inappropriate for estimating population parameters -
We have no way of knowing how representative the
sample is of the population
• Types of unrepresentative samples
– Snowball samples
– Politically important cases
– Quota sample
– Extreme case samples
– Typical case samples

• Significance testing is not appropriate for non-random

samples.

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Selecting the sample

• The ultimate aim of statistics is to make

inferences/generalise about the population,
based on what we know about our sample.

• Validity of a statistical inference depends on

how representative the sample is of the
population. Principles of sampling assume that
samples are randomly obtained.

• Size of the sampling error is affected by the size

of the sample. Increasing the sample size
decreases the size of the sampling error

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Simple Random Sampling

• All members of population have equal chance of

selection
• Random numbers table; computer-generated
• Advantages
– Most basic kind of sampling
– Sampling error is easy to calculate
– Generally more representative

• Disadvantages
– Need a list of whole population
– Can be costly, timely, logistically difficult

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Stratified Random Sampling

• Population divided into two or more groups

(strats) according to some common
characteristic
– Gender
– Ethic group
– Special populations
• Simple random sample within each strata

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Stratified Random Sampling

• Advantages
– Cheap to implement if strata are convenient groupings
– More precise results than simple random sampling
– Representativeness of stratifying variable

• Disadvantages
– Need information on stratifying variable
– Sampling frame needed for each strata

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Few definitions
• A parameter is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the population
– Parameters describe the population
• Given Greek letters
– α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ

• A statistic is a summary measure computed to

describe a characteristic of the sample
– Statistics describe the sample
• Given Roman letters
– abcde

SAMPLING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Framework
for
conducting
research

Reproduced from
Health Services
Research Methods
(Shi, 2008, p. 36)

Pawel Skuza 2013

“Term measurement refers to the procedure
of attributing qualities or quantities to
specific characteristics of objects, persons
or events. Measurement is a key process
in quantitative research, evaluation and in
clinical practice. If the measurement
procedures are inadequate its usefulness
will be limited”
(Polgar & Thomas, 2008, p. 125)

MEASUREMENT Pawel Skuza 2013

Objective measurement – involves the
measurement of physical quantities and
qualities using measurement equipment

Subjective measurement – involves ratings

or judgements by humans of quantities or
qualities

MEASUREMENT Pawel Skuza 2013

• “Measurement tools and
procedures ought to yield
measurements that are
reproducible, accurate, applicable
to the measurement task in hand
and practical or easy to use”
• (Polgar & Thomas, 2008, p. 126)

MEASUREMENT Pawel Skuza 2013

• Reliability is the property of
reproducibility of the results of
a measurement procedure or
tool

• Validity is concerned with

accuracy of the test procedure

MEASUREMENT Pawel Skuza 2013

Levels of Measurement and Measurement Scales
EXAMPLES:
Differences between Height, Age, Weekly
Ratio Data measurements, true
Food Spending
zero exists

Differences between Temperature in Celsius,

Interval Data measurements but no Standardized exam score
true zero

Service quality rating,

Ordered Categories
Ordinal Data (rankings, order, or scaling) Student letter grades

Categories (no ordering Marital status, Type of car

Nominal Data or direction) owned, Gender/Sex

MEASUREMENT Pawel Skuza 2013

 Framework
for
conducting
research

Reproduced from
Health Services
Research Methods
(Shi, 2008, p. 36)

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Real World Data
• Data can be “messy”
– Incomplete data
• Missing attributes
• Missing attribute values
• Only aggregated data
– Inconsistent data
• Different coding
• Different naming conventions
• Impossible values
• Out-of-range values
– Noisy data
• Errors
• Outliers
• Inaccurate values
! Need to pre-process the data before using for analysis

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Getting to know your data
– Checking for errors
– Summary statistics
– Checking for Outliers
– Missing data
– Assessing Normality
– Graphs

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Few definitions
• Variable
– Any characteristic or attribute of persons, objects, or
events that can take on different numerical values
• Observation
– Is a record or notation made from observing a
phenomenon
• Datum
– A single observation
• Data
– May be measurements or observations of a variable
• Case
– Typically a person being studied

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Common Data Entry Errors
• Wrong data but within range
– The marital status of married person is entered as a
single
– Both single and married are legal
• This type of errors checked by using double entry method
• Wrong data and out of range
– If 1 stands for male and 2 stands for female, then the
value of 3 represents erroneous data
– Frequency distribution procedures flagged these
cases

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Common Data Entry Errors
• False logic( Consistency )
– A 25 years old respondent is reported as having
experience of government service in 30 years.
• Missing data
– Missing data codes for items such as “Not applicable”
and “refuse to answer” have not been pre coded in
the questionnaire, even though they should have
been
– Need to find these cases replace with the appropriate
data code
• 8=refuse to answer
• 9=missing

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Dealing with Missing Data
• Handling missing data
– Ignore record (not advisable)
– Fill in with attribute mean or median (not
advisable)
– Fill in with most likely value based upon
imputation process (various approaches available
– see below references for more information)
DEDICATED WORKSHOP -
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course/BCI9

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

• Abraham, W. T., & Russell, D. W. (2004). Missing data: A review of current methods
and applications in epidemiological research. Current Opinion in Psychiatry, 17(4),
315-321.
• Allison, P. D. (2003). Missing Data Techniques for Structural Equation Modeling.
Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 112(4), 545-557.
• Baraldi, A. N., & Enders, C. K. (2010). An introduction to modern missing data
analyses. Journal of School Psychology, 48(1), 5-37.
• Buhi, E. R., Goodson, P., & Neilands, T. B. (2008). Out of sight, not out of mind:
Strategies for handling missing data. American Journal of Health Behavior, 32(1), 83-
92.
• Enders, Craig K. (2010). Applied missing data analysis. New York: Guilford Press.
• Everitt, Brian. (2003). Missing Values, Drop-outs, Compliance and Intention-to-Treat.
In B. Everitt (Ed.), Modern medical statistics : A practical guide (pp. 46-66). London:
Arnold
• Fitzmaurice, Garrett. (2008). Missing data: implications for analysis. Nutrition, 24(2),
200-202. doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.nut.2007.10.014
• McKnight, Patrick E. (2007). Missing data : a gentle introduction. New York: Guilford
Press.
• Peugh, J. L., & Enders, C. K. (2004). Missing data in educational research: A review
of reporting practices and suggestions for improvement. Review of Educational
Research, 74(4), 525-556.
• Streiner, D. L. (2002). The case of the missing data: Methods of dealing with
dropouts and other research vagaries. Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, Pawel Skuza68-75.
47(1), 2013
 Outliers
• Outliers are observations that deviate
substantially from the majority of
observations
• Outliers can lead to
– Model misspecification
– Biased parameter estimation
– Incorrect analysis results

DATA PROCESSING Pawel Skuza 2013

 Framework
for
conducting
research

Reproduced from
Health Services
Research Methods
(Shi, 2008, p. 36)

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Types of statistics / What is the aim?
• Descriptive statistics
– Summarising and presenting data
• Inferential statistics
– Obtaining knowledge of a population based
upon a sample
– Uses inductive reasoning
• Reasoning form the particular to the general
• From the observed to the unobserved

DATA ANALYSIS Pawel Skuza 2013

Descriptive statistics

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Central Tendency
• To summarise the “location” of a
distribution
• Mode
• Median
• Mean

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Measures of Central Tendency
• Three common measures
– Mode
• The mode of a data set is the value that occurs with the most
frequency
– Median
• The median is the central of an ordered distribution
– Order the data from smallest to largest
– For an odd number of data values in the distribution
» Median=middle value of the data
– For an even number of data values in the distribution
» Median=(sum of the middle two values)/2
– (Arithmetic) mean or average
• Mean is the sum of all the entries divided by the number of
entries

Pawel Skuza 2013

Measures of Central Tendency
Arithmetic Mean

Trimmed Mean

Median

Mode

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Variability
• To summarise the “spread” or “dispersion”
of a distribution
• Low variability => scores are similar
• High variability => scores differ
• Range
• Interquartile range (IQR)
• Standard deviation / Variance

Pawel Skuza 2013

The Limitation of Point Estimates
• The sample median and sample mean estimate the
corresponding center points of a population
• Such estimates are called point estimates
• By themselves, point estimates do not portray the
reliability, or lack of reliability (variability), of these
estimates

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Range
• Two definitions used
– Exclusive range
Xmax - Xmin
• This is the most commonly used way of
calculating the range

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Deviation Score
• Remember
– The arithmetic mean uses information about every
observation
• A good measure of variation should also
summarize how much each observation
deviates from the measure of central tendency
• The deviation score is the distance a score is
from the arithmetic mean

di  X i  X

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Variance and Standard Deviation
• The variance is the mean squared deviation
from the average
• There are two formulas
– One for populations
– One for samples

 X    X X
2 2

 2
 s 2

N n 1
 d  d 
2 2

 2
 s 2

N n 1

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Variance and Standard Deviation
• The sample variance formula has the (N-1) divisor
– This produces an unbiased estimate of the population
variance
• The standard deviation is the positive square root of
the variance

 X  X 
2

 X  
2

 s
N n 1

d 
2

d 
2
s
 n 1
N

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Summary Statistics
• Categorical
– Frequency counts / percentages
– Median (central tendency – ordinal only)
– IQR / percentiles
(variability –ordinal only)
– Bar charts

Gender

Frequency Percent
Valid Female 216 45.6
Male 258 54.4
Total 474 100.0

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Summary Statistics
• Categorical variables in SPSS

• Analyse > Descriptive Statistics

– Frequencies (Statistics: quartiles,
percentiles)
– Explore (median, percentiles)
• Graphs
– Bar chart

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Summary Statistics
• Continuous
– Mean / median (central tendency)
– Standard deviation / IQR (variability)
– Histogram / boxplots

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Summary Statistics
• Continuous variables in SPSS
• Analyse > Descriptive Statistics
– Descriptives
– Explore
• Graphs in Explore
– Histogram
– Boxplot

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Keeping a research diary
• Use “Save file as” option
Example:
My data_2008_07_14,
My data_2008_07_15

• Keeping diary of undertaken analyses in

syntax

Pawel Skuza 2013

 The Normal Curve
• The normal curve is a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve
– N(μ,σ)
• Review of Z Scores
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Frequency or
Probability

Event (e.g., test score)

Pawel Skuza 2013
 Standard Scores
• Standard scores represent a way of comparing
scores from different normal distributions
• Procedure
• Check shape of distribution
• Calculate mean and standard deviation
• Calculate z-scores
– Have a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

xx
z
s

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Areas Under the Normal Curve
• The normal curve can be used to calculate
the probability of a standardized score
falling above or below a particular value

P(Z≤-z)
1-P(Z≤z)

-2 -1 0 1 2 z-Score

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Example Use of Normal Curve

• How many people are expected to have IQW

scores greater than 130?
• Mean of the scale=100
• Standard deviation of the scale=15
– Convert 130 to standard score

z
 x    130  100
  2
 15

Pawel Skuza 2013

Example Use of Normal Curve
• Approximately 2.14% of students score higher
than a z-score of 2

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Other summary stats
• Skewness: the symmetry of a distribution

positive negative
skew skew

• Kurtosis: the peakedness of a distribution

normal high
distn kurtosis

Pawel Skuza 2013

Checking the Plausibility of a Normal Model
• Basic question:
– Does a normal distribution serve as a reasonable
model for the population that produced the sample?
• Common ways of checking the plausibility
– The histogram with normal plot superimposed
• Not a strong test
– But a useful start
– Skewness and kurtosis statistics
– Normal-scores plot
• Using SPSS
– Specialized statistics

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Transformations
• May be able to use non-parametric tests if
assumptions of parametric tests not satisfied
– data skewed, non-normal

• Transform data  normality / constant variance

– log most common for physical/biological data
– can then use parametric tests
– report the antilog of the mean

Pawel Skuza 2013

Transformations
Kirkwood, 1988 pp133 & 139

Pawel Skuza 2013

Inferential statistics

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Inferential statistics
• Estimation
– Want to estimate some population parameter
with a certain level of precision

• Hypothesis Testing
– Determine how much evidence the data
provides for or against a hypothesised
relationship

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Estimation
Estimate population parameters from sample
statistics
– Mean, proportion

• Point estimates
– A single value or statistic is used to estimate the
parameter
• Interval estimate
– Based upon the point estimate
– But also conveys the degree of accuracy of that point
estimate
• That accuracy will be affected by
– Sampling error
– Measurement error

Pawel Skuza 2013

• Demonstration of WISE
Sampling Distribution of
the Mean Applet
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distribution-of-the-mean/
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mple.html?population=model

Pawel Skuza 2013

 If a random sample of N cases is drawn from a
population with mean  and standard deviation ,
then the sampling distribution of the mean (the
The Central distribution of all possible means for samples of
size N)
Limit 1) has a mean equal to the population mean x:

Theorem
(CLT) 2) has a standard deviation (also called "standard
error" or "standard error of the mean") equal to the
population standard deviation, x divided by the
square root of the sample size, N:

3) and the shape of the sampling distribution of the

mean approaches normal as N increases.

• http://wise.cgu.edu/wise-tutorials/tutorial-central-limit-
theorem/ Pawel Skuza 2013
 Standard Error of the Mean
• Imagine we took lots of samples
– Each of 100 students
– And calculated the mean each time
• Then we would be able to make a graph (histogram) of
the means – sampling distribution
– The standard deviation of that graph is the standard error of the
mean

X 
n

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Estimation:
Standard errors
• Graphically displayed as error bars

• Function of the variability in the outcome

and the sample size
• Variability ,
standard error
• Sample size ,
standard error

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Confidence Intervals
• Confidence interval estimates are
intervals which have a stated probability
of containing the true population value
– The intervals are wider for data sets having
greater variability

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Confidence Intervals
• SE are used to construct confidence interval

– Example, 95% CI for the mean (for N>100)

Sample mean +/- 1.96*SE

Sample mean +/- t ( n 1)*SE

where t ( n 1) is a critical value from tables of t statistics

• 95% confident that the interval contains the true

population mean
• Confidence level is chosen by the researcher

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Types of Hypotheses
• Alternative hypothesis
– The research hypothesis that we wish to establish
• We wish to say “is there strong evidence to support this
claim”
– Legal analogy:
• “The person is guilty of a crime”
• Null hypothesis
– The statement that nullifies the research hypothesis
• We test the statement “Is there strong evidence for rejecting
the null hypothesis?”
– Legal analogy
• “The person is innocent until there is enough proof for us to
assert that this is not the case”

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Types of Hypotheses
• Non directional
– A non-directional null hypothesis uses the term
“equal”
– The non-directional alternative hypothesis uses the
term “unequal”
• Directional
– A non-directional null hypothesis uses the terms
“equal or greater than” “greater than”, “equal or less
than”, or “less than”
– The non-directional alternative hypothesis uses the
term “less than”, equal or less than”, “greater than”, or
“equal or greater than”
• Note the pairing of the terms

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Types of Hypotheses
• Null hypothesis
– Stated as a statistically testable question
• The mean mathematics literacy for boys is 500
• The correlation between reading and mathematics literacy is 0.70
• The mean scientific literacy of girls and boys are equal
• The mean mathematics literacy of boys is greater than the mean
mathematics literacy of girls
• Alternative hypothesis
– Stated as the opposite to the null hypothesis
• The mean mathematics literacy for boys is not 500
• The correlation between reading and mathematics literacy is not
0.70
• The mean scientific literacy of girls and boys are unequal
• The mean mathematics literacy of boys is less than or equal to the
mean mathematics literacy of girls

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Hypothesis Testing
1. Define a null hypothesis (H0)
• The neutral/no-evidence scenario
• Usually hypothesis of no difference / no association
2. Define an alternate hypothesis (HA)
• What you want to be able to support using the weight of evidence
supplied by your data
• Usually hypothesis of a difference in means / presence of association
3. Determine appropriate statistical test and
characteristics of comparison distribution
 Parametric statistics are based upon distributions
 Nonparametric statistics are not based upon distributions
4. Calculate test statistic and its associated
probability
5. If probability is “small” reject H0, otherwise
retain

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Hypothesis Testing
• Derived from clear, concise research questions
• Choose a test or model that matches the research
questions and specifically addresses the research
aims
• There is growing criticism against using only null
hypothesis testing. For extensive reference see
Cumming, Geoff. (2012). Understanding the new
statistics : effect sizes, confidence intervals, and
meta-analysis. New York: Routledge.

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Errors in Hypothesis Testing
• Two types of error
– Type I error
• Reject the null hypothesis when it is really true
– Real situation – the population mean is 500
– Null hypothesis – the population mean is 500
– Decision – reject the null hypothesis
» Perhaps because the sample mean was 495 and the
statistical test showed that the sample mean was very
different from 500
» That is, the statistical test showed that it was unlikely that
a mean of 495 could be randomly drawn from the
population
– The decision is wrong; so we have made a Type I error
– The probability of making a Type I error is α

Pawel Skuza 2013

 What is a p-value?
p = Prob (Type I error)
= Prob (reject H0 | H0 is true)
= amount of evidence which exists
against the null hypothesis
= probability of making one kind of
mistake
• Need to define a cut-off for deciding what
p-values are “significant”

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Interpreting a p-value
• Scenario: t-test for two means; p=0.01
• This means:
– There is a 1% chance of getting a result even more extreme
than the observed one when H0 is true
– Assuming H0 is true and the study is repeated many times,
1% of these results will be even more inconsistent with H0
than the observed result

• It does not:
– Imply that the effect is large
– “Prove” the alternate hypothesis (rather, provides “support of”
or “evidence for”)

Pawel Skuza 2013

Errors in Hypothesis Testing
• Two types of error
– Type II error
• Fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is really false
– Real situation – the population mean is 550
– Null hypothesis – the population mean is 500
– Decision – fail to reject the null hypothesis
» Perhaps because the sample mean was 510 and the
statistical test showed that sample mean was not
very different from 500
» That is, the statistical test showed that it was likely
that a mean of 510 could be randomly drawn from the
population with a mean of 500
– The decision is wrong; so we have made a Type II error
– The probability of making a Type II error is β

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Type I and II errors
• Type I – reject the null hypothesis when
it is true
• Probability of Type I error = 
• Eg, conclude that there is a difference in mean
outcome of two groups when in fact they are same
• Type II – retain the null hypothesis when
it is false
• Probability of Type II error = 
• Eg, conclude there is no difference in mean
outcome between two groups when they are
different

Pawel Skuza 2013

Types of Errors

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 Statistical power
• Power = 1 -  = probability of correctly
rejecting H0
• Important use in planning studies
– Specify  and 
– Specify minimum interesting effect size
• Size of the effect that you wish to conclude is
significant, if it is present
– Estimate minimum required sample size

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 Methods of Increasing Power
• Power can be increased by
– Increasing the sample size
• Remember that sample size is a crucial
component in the standard error of the mean
– Increasing the alpha level
• As alpha increases, so does the power
– Increases when the true value of the
parameter being tested deviates further from
the value hypothesized
• This is rarely under the control of the researcher

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 Hypothesis Testing Tutorial
http://wise.cgu.edu/hypomod/index.asp

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 Effect Size
• Effect size (ES) is a name given to a family of
indices that measure the magnitude of a
treatment effect.
• Unlike significance tests, these indices are
independent of sample size.
• ES measures are the common currency of meta-
analysis studies that summarize the findings
from a specific area of research.

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 Effect Size
• The Task Force on Statistical Inference of the American
Psychological Association recommended that
researchers ‘‘should always provide some ES estimate
when reporting a p value’’ and that ‘‘... reporting and
interpreting ESs in the context of previously reported
effects is essential to good research’’ (Wilkinson and
APA Task Force on Statistical Inference, 1999, p. 599)

• International Committee of Medical Journal Editors

stated in the “Uniform Requirements for Manuscripts
Submitted to Biomedical Journals" that researchers
should “… Avoid relying solely on statistical hypothesis
testing, such as P values, which fail to convey important
information about effect size. “
International Committee of Medical Journal Editors. Uniform Requirements for Manuscripts
Submitted to Biomedical Journals: Writing and Editing for Biomedical Publication. Available at:
http://www.icmje.org/. Accessed January 25, 2009

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 Effect Size
Various measures of ES has been proposed
that fall into two main types
• The r Family where ES is expressed in
terms of strength of association (for
example Pearson correlation coefficient r)
• The s family measuring the magnitude of
difference (for example Cohen’s d)

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 Cohen’s d
• Cohen (1988) defined d as the difference
between the means, M1 - M2, divided by
standard deviation, s, of either group
• Cohen argued that the standard deviation of
either group could be used when the
variances of the two groups are
homogeneous.
X 2  X1
d


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 Cohen’s d
• If the variances are not equal, a pooled standard
deviation is used

• The pooled standard deviation is the square root of the

average of the squared standard deviations.

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 Interpreting Effect Size
• An ES is simply a number and its meaning and
importance must be explained by the
researcher. An ES of any magnitude can mean
different things depending on the research that
produced it and the results of similar past
studies. Therefore, it is the researcher’s
responsibility to discuss the importance of his or
her findings and this information requires
comparing current effects to those obtained in
previous work in the same research area.
(Durlak, 2009, p. 6)
Durlak, J. A. (2009). How to Select, Calculate, and Interpret Effect
Sizes. Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 1-12.

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 Interpreting Effect Size
• Cohen (1988) defined effect sizes as
• "small, d = .2,"
• "medium, d = .5," and
• "large, d = .8",
– stating that "there is a certain risk in inherent in
offering conventional operational definitions for
those terms for use in power analysis in as diverse
a field of inquiry as behavioral science" (p. 25).

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 Interpreting Effect Size
• Effect sizes can be thought of as the average percentile
standing of the average treated (or experimental)
participant relative to the average untreated (or control)
participant.

• An ES of 0.0 indicates that the mean of the treated group

is at the 50th percentile of the untreated group.
• An ES of 0.8 indicates that the mean of the treated group
is at the 79th percentile of the untreated group.
• An effect size of 1.7 indicates that the mean of the
treated group is at the 95.5 percentile of the untreated
group.

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• Moher D, Dulberg CS, Wells GA: Statistical
power, sample size, and their reporting in
randomized controlled trials. JAMA1994, 272:122-
124
– Reviewed 383 randomized controlled trials published in
three journals (Journal of the American Medical
Association, Lancet and New England Journal of
Medicine)
– Out of 102 null trials, those investigators found that only
36% had 80% power to detect a relative difference of
50% between groups and only 16% had 80% power to
detect a more modest 25% relative difference.
• Nowadays with Consort statement being used as standard,
similar proportion of underpowered RCT studies is
unlikely.
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• Dybå, T., Kampenes, V. B., & Sjøberg, D. I. K.
(2006). A systematic review of statistical power in
software engineering experiments. Information and
Software Technology, 48(8), 745-755.
• Freedman, K. B., Back, S., & Bernstein, J. (2001).
Sample size and statistical power of randomised,
controlled trials in orthopaedics. J Bone Joint Surg
Br, 83-B(3), 397-402.
• Maxwell, S. E. (2004). The Persistence of
Underpowered Studies in Psychological Research:
Causes, Consequences, and Remedies.
Psychological Methods, 9(2), 147-163

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• Demonstration of
G*3Power software
• http://www.psycho.uni-duesseldorf.de/abteilungen/aap/gpower3

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• Kalinowski, P., & Fidler, F. (2010). Interpreting
Significance: The Differences Between Statistical
Significance, Effect Size, and Practical Importance.
Newborn and Infant Nursing Reviews, 10(1), 50-54
• Nakagawa, S., & Cuthill, I. C. (2007). Effect size,
confidence interval and statistical significance: A
practical guide for biologists. Biological Reviews,
82(4), 591-605.
• Finch, S., & Cumming, G. (2009). Putting research
in context: Understanding confidence intervals from
one or more studies. Journal of Pediatric
Psychology, 34(9), 903-916.

Pawel Skuza 2013

 Elements under consideration during
selection of some statistical tests
• Type of data, measurement scale
– continuous or categorical
– normal or non-normal distribution

• Number of groups
• Whether measures are from same subjects
(paired, repeated) or independent samples

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Selection of statistical methods
Example 1
Figure 4.11 from Dancey, C. P., & Reidy, J. (2004). Statistics without maths
for psychology : using SPSS for Windows (3rd ed.). New York: Prentice
Hall.

Example 2
Table from Pallant, J. (2007). SPSS Survival Manual : A step by step guide
to data analysis using SPSS for Windows (SPSS Version 15) (3rd ed.).
Maidenhead, Berkshire. U.K. ; New York, NY: Open University Press.

Example 3
Flowchart from http://gjyp.nl/marta/Flowchart%20(English).pdf

Similar ones in other resources …

Pawel Skuza 2013
Selection of an Appropriate Inferential Statistics for Basic, Two Variable Difference
Questions or Hypotheses – PART 1

Level of Measurement Compare One Factor or Independent Variable with Two

of Dependent Variable Categories or Levels /Groups /Samples
Independent Repeated Measures
Samples or or Related Samples
Groups (Between) (Within)
Parametric Dependent Variable Means INDEPENDENT PAIRED SAMPLES t
Statistics Approximates Normal SAMPLES t TEST TEST
(Scale) Data and
Assumptions Not
Markedly Violated
Nonparametric Dependent Variable Mean MANN-WHITNEY WILCOXON
Statistics Clearly Ordinal Data or Ranks U TEST SIGNED-RANK TEST
the Assumptions Are
Markedly Violated
Dependent Variable is Counts CHI-SQUARE MCNEMAR TEST
Nominal or SIGNIFICANCE
(dichotomous) Data TEST

Adapted from (Morgan, Leech, Gloeckner, & Barrett, 2007, p. 141)

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Selection of an Appropriate Inferential Statistics for Basic, Two Variable Difference
Questions or Hypotheses – PART 2

Level of Measurement Compare One Factor or Independent Variable with 3 or

of Dependent Variable More Categories or Levels /Groups /Samples
Independent Repeated Measures
Samples or or Related Samples
Groups (Between) (Within)
Parametric Dependent Variable Means ONE-WAY ANOVA GLM REPEATED
Statistics Approximates Normal MEASURES ANOVA
(Scale) Data and
Assumptions Not
Markedly Violated
Nonparametric Dependent Variable Mean KRUSKAL- FRIEDMAN TEST
Statistics Clearly Ordinal Data or Ranks WALLIS H TEST
the Assumptions Are
Markedly Violated
Dependent Variable is Counts CHI-SQUARE COCHRAN Q TEST
Nominal or SIGNIFICANCE
(dichotomous) Data TEST

Adapted from (Leech, Barrett, & Morgan, 2008, p. 74)

Pawel Skuza 2013
Selection of an Appropriate Inferential Statistics for Basic, Two Variable, Associational
Questions or Hypotheses

Level (Scale) of RELATE Two Variables or Scores for the Same or

Measurement of Both Related Subjects
Variables
Parametric Variables Are Both MEANS PEARSON CORRELATION /
Statistics Normal /Scale and
Assumptions Not BIVARIATE REGRESSION
Markedly Violated
Nonparametric Both Variables at RANKS KENDALL'S TAU-B or
Statistics Least Ordinal Data or
Assumptions
SPEARMAN’S RANK ORDER
Markedly Violated CORRELATION (RHO)
One Variable Is ETA
Normal /Scale and
One Is
Nominal
Both Variables COUNTS PHI or CRAMER'S V
Are Nominal or
Dichotomous

Reproduced from (Leech, Barrett, & Morgan, 2008, p. 75)

Pawel Skuza 2013
Selection of the Appropriate Complex Associational Statistic for Predicting a Single
Dependent/Outcome Variable from Several Independent Variables

SEVERAL INDEPENDENT OR PREDICTOR VARIABLES

One Dependent All Some Normal Some or all Normal and/or
or Outcome Normal / Scale Some or all Nominal Dichotomous, with
Variable Dichotomous (Categorical with at least one
(2 categories) more than random and/or
2 categories) nested variable
Normal/Scale MULTIPLE MULTIPLE GENERAL LINEAR
(Continuous) REGRESSION REGRESSION LINEAR MIXED
or MODEL MODELS
GENERAL
LINEAR
MODEL
Dichotomous DISCRIMINANT LOGISTIC LOGISTIC Generalized
ANALYSIS REGRESSION REGRESSION Estimating
Equations

Reproduced from (Leech, Barrett, & Morgan, 2008, p. 75)

Pawel Skuza 2013
References – Example of key publications
for specific research domain
• Boushey, C., Harris, J., Bruemmer, B., Archer, S., L. , &
Horn, L. V. (2006). Publishing Nutrition Research: A
Review of Study Design, Statistical Analyses, and Other
Key Elements of Manuscript Preparation, Part 1.
American Dietetic Association. Journal of the American
Dietetic Association, 106(1), 89-95.

• Boushey, C., J., Harris, J., Bruemmer, B., & Archer, S.,
L. . (2008). Publishing Nutrition Research: A Review of
Sampling, Sample Size, Statistical Analysis, and Other
Key Elements of Manuscript Preparation, Part 2.
American Dietetic Association. Journal of the American
Dietetic Association, 108(4), 679-688.

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References – More theoretical introduction
• Moore, D. S., McCabe, G. P., & Craig, B. A.
(2009). Introduction to the practice of statistics
(6th , extended version. ed.). New York: W.H.
Freeman.

• … and there are many more books in Flinders

University library aimed as a general
introduction to statistics with many of them
specific to particular field of research.

Pawel Skuza 2013

 References – Used throughout presentation
• Levy, P. S., & Lemeshow, S. (2008). Sampling
of populations : methods and applications (4th
ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley.
• Lohr, S. L. (1999). Sampling : design and
analysis. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press.
• Shi, L. (2008). Health services research
methods (2nd ed.). Clifton Park, NY:
Thomson/Delmar Learning.
• Zhang, C. (2007). Fundamentals of
environmental sampling and analysis. Hoboken,
N.J.: Wiley-Interscience.

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 References
– https://learnandteachstatistics.wordpress.com/2018/01
/09/videos-for-teaching-and-learning-statistics/
– Moore, D. S., McCabe, G. P., & Craig, B. A. (2012).
Introduction to the practice of statistics (7th ed.). New
York: W. H. Freeman.
– McCleery, R. H., Hart, T., & Watt, T. A. (2007).
Introduction to statistics for biology (3rd ed.). Boca
Raton, Fla. ; London: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
– Good, P. I., & Hardin, J. W. (2006). Common errors in
statistics (and how to avoid them) (2nd ed.). Hoboken,
N.J.: Wiley

Pawel Skuza 2013

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