Let us first define what a seismic hazard is…
A seismic hazard is defined as a quantitative estimation of the most possible
ground shaking at the site.
And lets also differentiate seismic hazard analysis from seismic risk analysis:
Seismic hazard analysis
Describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake-related phenomena such as
ground shaking, fault rupture or soil liquefaction.
Seismic risk analysis
Assesses the probability of occurrence of losses (human, social, economic)
associated with the seismic hazards.
In other words, Hazard associated with earthquakes is ground shaking.
Whereas, Risk is the structural collapse, and possibly, loss of life.
The possible ground shaking may be represented by:….
Whatever the approach….
Going to the approaches to seismic hazard analysis using deterministic hazard
analysis:
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is a simple procedure which
provides a straightforward framework for the computation of ground motions to
be used for the worst case design. For specialty or special structures such as
nuclear power plants, large dams, and so on, DSHA can be used to provide a
safe design. DSHA involves many subjective decisions and does not provide any
information on the likelihood of failure of the structure over a given period of time.
Because of these reasons, its application is restricted when sufficient information
is not available to carry out any probabilistic analysis.
DSHA consists of five steps:
1. Identification of all potential earthquake sources surrounding the site,
including the source geometry. Some of these will be easy to identify
(example, a known active fault); others may be more difficult to describe.
2. Next step, Evaluation of source to site distance for each earthquake source.
The distance is characterized by the shortest epicentral distance or
hypocentral distance if the source is a line source.
3. Identification of the maximum (likely) earthquake expressed in terms of
magnitude or any other parameter for ground shaking for each source.
4. Selection of the predictive relationship (or attenuation relationship) to find the
seismic hazard caused at the site due to an earthquake occurring in any of the
sources.
5. Determination of the worst case ground shaking parameter at the site. Do you
want to design for the largest earthquake that could ever occur at the site
(using perhaps an estimate of seismic moment) or only the largest motion that
has occurred, say, within the past 200 years.
As discussed, earthquake sources are important in the DSHA. So, what are the
source types?
This seismicity map of the Philippines shows the epicenters of 25,100 historical
and instrumentally recorded earthquake events from 1608 to 2016 with moment
magnitude greater than 4.1
Also, as previously discussed in the DSHA steps, we also learned about the
identification of the “maximum” earthquake for each source.
1. Maximum Possible Earthquake - An upper bound to size (however unlikely),
determined by earthquake processes, such as maximum seismic movement
2. Maximum Credible Earthquake - The maximum reasonable earthquake size
based on earthquake processes (but does not imply likely occurrence)
3. Maximum Historic Earthquake - The maximum instrumented earthquake that
is often a lower bound on maximum possible or maximum credible earthquake.
4. Maximum Considered Earthquake - The maximum level of earthquake
shaking that is considered as reasonable to design normal structures to resist
Example
Ln = natural log
Unit: g = Peak ground acceleration can be expressed in g
(the acceleration due to Earth's gravity, equivalent to g-force) as either a
decimal or percentage; in m/s2 (1 g = 9.81 m/s2); or in Gal, where 1 Gal is equal to
0.01 m/s² (1 g = 981 Gal).
Lets now proceed to the 2nd approach to seismic hazard analysis:
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)
• quantitative estimate that a certain level of site ground motion will be
exceeded in a specified time interval
• uses probabilistic concepts to predict the probability of occurrence of a
certain level of ground shaking at a site by considering uncertainties in the
size, location, rate of occurrence of earthquake, and the predictive
relationship
• This can help establish thresholds at which damage can be expected. This
is useful in risk analysis and in insurance
• A procedure for generating seismic probability maps was proposed by
Algermissen, et. al. (1982).
Algermissen’s procedure is as follows:
Step 4. The extreme probability of various acceleration levels are developed for
exposure times in terms of which is the mean rate of occurrence of earthquakes
of a given magnitude.
This is the Empirical Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence relationship - The
relationship between magnitude and likelihood of occurrence is called a
“recurrence relationship.” The relationships are determined for regression
analysis of historic ground motions.
The bounded relationship corrects for the fact that faults are capable of
generating earthquakes of a maximum magnitude.
This is the basic probability equation.
Problems in Probabilistic Analysis:
1. There are serious problems with b-lines. The applicability or non-
applicability of the b-line is crucial because its use for predicting time-
dependent recurrences of large earthquakes makes it the heart of seismic
probability theory – and some fault mechanisms for generating earthquakes
does not relate well to the b-lines.
Procedure for risk analysis developed by Hynes and Franklin
Step 4 - Present the trade-off of expected losses against costs of construction.
Express this as incremental increase in initial construction cost to avoid
incremental increases in potential losses
