Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

Problems on Probability:

1. From a well shuffled deck of 52 cards, one card is drawn at random: What is the
probability that it is
a. Red = 26/52
b. Spade = 13/52
c. Ace = /52
d. Red king = 2/52
e. King or diamond = 16/52
f. King or queen = 8/52
g. Heart or club= 26/52
h. Spade or ace = 16/52
2. When a coin is tossed, what is the probability of getting
a. head = 1/2
b. tail=1/2
3. Two fair coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability of getting?
a. Two heads=1/4
b. no head= 1/4
c. one head and one tail = 2/4
d. at least one head= 3/4
e. at most one tail = 3/4

[hh, ht, th, tt]

4. When rolling a die once, what is the probability that

a.The face of the die is odd? = 3/6
b. The face is even or odd?= 6/6
c.The face is even or one?= 4/6
d. The face is odd or one?= 3/6
e.The face is both even and a one? = 0/6 =0

5. Two fair dice are thrown at random. What is the probability that the turn up show
a. a sum 7 = 6/36
b. sum of 8 or 9 = 9/36
c. a sum less than 5 = 6/36
d. the two dice show the same number = 6/36
e. the number on the two dice differ by more than 2 = 12/36
f. the product of the two number is even.= 27/36

11 12 13 14 15 16
21 22 23 24 25 26
31 32 33 34 35 36
41 42 43 44 45 46
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66

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Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

6. A bag contains 30 balls numbered from 1 to 30. If one ball is drawn at random from
the bag, what is the probability that drawn ball is
a.Multiple of 3 = 10/30
b. multiple of 5 = 6/30
c.multiple of 3 and 5 = 2/30
d. multiple of 3 or 5= 14/30
e.even number= 15/30
7. One ball is drawn at random from a bag containing 4 red, 5 white and 6 blue balls.
What is the probability that it is
a. Red = 4/15
b. White= 5/15
c. red or white= 9/15
d. white or green = 5/15
e. red or white or green = 9/15

8. A bag contains 7 red balls and 5 white balls. if 4 balls are drawn at random, what is
the probability that
a. All of them are red 0.07
b. Two of them are red and two white 0.42
9. A stockiest has 20 items in a lot; out of which 12 are non defective and 8 defective. A
customer selects 3 items from the lot. What is the probability that
a. All the three are non defective
b. Two are non defective and one is defective
10. A committee of 5 is to be formed out of a group of 8 boys and 7 girls. Find the
probability that in the committee there will be
a. 3 boys and 2 girls 0.39
b. No girls = 0.018
c. At least one girl = 0.981= p(1g4b) + p(2g3b) + p(3g2b) + p(4g1b) + p(5g0b)
11. Five men in a company of 20 are graduates. If 3 men are picked out of the 20 at
random, what is the probability that they are
a. all graduates
b. all non-graduates
c. 2 graduates
d. at most 1 graduates
e. at least one graduates
f. 2 non graduates
12. The probability that a contractor will get a building contract is 2/3 and the probability
that he will get road contract is 5/9.if the probability of getting at least one contract is
4/5, what is the probability that he will get
a. Both the contracts.
b. Neither the contracts.
P(B) = 2/3 and P(R) = 5/9 and P(BUR) = 4/5

A) P(B∩R)= 19/45
B) 1-(BUR)= 1-4/5 = 1/5
We know
P(BUR) = P(B) + P(R) – P(B∩R)

4/5 = 2/3 + 5/9 - P(B∩R)

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13. A survey of magazine subscribers showed that 45.8% rented a car during the past 12
months for business reasons, 54% rented a car during the past 12 months for personal
reasons and 30% rented a car during the past 12 months for both business and
personal reasons.
a. What is the probability that a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months
for business or personal reasons? 69.8%= 0.698
b. What is the probability that a subscriber didn’t rent a car for 12 months for
either business or personal reasons? 30.2%=0.302
P(b) = 0.458
P(p) = 0.54
P(b∩p) = 0.30
a) P(bUp) = p(b) + P(p)- P(b∩p) = 0.698
b) 1-P(bUp) = 1-0.698= 0.302
c)
14. An inspector of the Alaska Pipeline has the task of comparing the reliability of two
pumping stations. Each station is susceptible to two kinds of failure: pump failure and
leakage. When either (or both) occurs, the station must be shut down. The data at
hand indicate that the following probabilities prevail.
Station P(pump failure) P(leakage) P(both)
1 0.07 0.10 0
2 0.09 0.12 0.06
a. What is the probability of being shut down of station 1? 0.17
b. What is the probability of being shut down of station 2? 0.15
c. Which station has the higher probability of being shut down? (stations 1 have
higher chance of being shut down)

15. Given the following contingency table:

Smoker non-smoker
Male 10 20
Female 15 40
Obtain the probability of
a. male = 30/85
b. smoker = 25/85
c. female = 55/85
d. female and smoker = 15/85
e. male and smoker = 10/85
f. female or smoker = 55/85 + 25/85 – 15/85 = 65/85
g. male or smoker = 45/85
h. female or non-smoker= 55/85+ 60/85-40/85 = 75/85
i. male and female = 0/85 = 0
j. smoker and non-smoker= 0/85
k. If the selected person is female then what is the probability that she is
smoker? P(S/F) = P(S∩F)/P(F) = [15/85 ]/[55/85] = 15/55

16. A survey is conducted to determine whether there is a relationship between student’s

interest in finance and his or her ability in mathematics. A random sample of 200
students is selected and they are asked whether their interest in finance and ability in
mathematics are low, average or high. The results are as follows
Ability in mathematics
Interest in finance low average high
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Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

Low 60 15 15
Average 15 45 10
High 5 10 25
If a students is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she
a. Has a high ability in mathematics?
b. Has an average interest in finance?
c. Has a low interest in finance and a low ability in mathematics?
d. Has a high interest in finance or a high ability in mathematics?
e. Assume we know that the person selected has a high ability in mathematics.
What is the probability that the person has a high interest in finance?
f. Assume we know that the person selected has an average ability in
mathematics. What is the probability that this individual has a low interest in
finance?
17. Suppose that a survey has been undertaken to determine if there is a relationship
between place of residence and ownership of a foreign made automobile, a random
sample of 200 car owners from large cities, 150 from suburbs and 150 from rural
areas was selected with the results shown below
Types of area
Car ownership large city suburb rural total
Own foreign car 90 60 25 175
Do not own foreign car 110 90 125 325
Total 200 150 150 500
a. if a car owner is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she
i. owns a foreign car?
ii. lives in a suburb?
iii. owns a foreign car or lives in a large city?
iv. lives in a large city or a suburb?
v. lives in a large city and owns a foreign car?
b. Assume we know that a person selected lives in a suburb. What is the
probability that he or she owns a foreign car?
18. Numerous intensive studies have been conducted of consumer planning for the
purchase of durable goods such as television sets, refrigerators, washing machines,
stoves and automobiles. In one such study, 1000 individuals in a randomly selected
sample were asked whether they were planning to buy a new television in the next 12
months. A year later the same persons were interviewed again to find out whether
they actually bought a new television. The response to both interviews is cross
tabulated below
Buyers non buyers totals
Planned to buy 200 50 250
Did not plan to buy 100 650 750
Totals 300 700 1000
If an individuals is selected at random, what is the probability that in the last year he or
she
a. Has bought a new television?
b. Planned to buy a new television?
c. Planned to buy and actually bought a new television?
d. Planned to buy and actually did not buy a new television?
e. Planned to buy a new television or actually bought a new television?
f. Planned to buy a new television or did not plan to buy a new television?
g. If the respondent planned to buy a new television, what is the probability that he
or she actually bought one?
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Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

h. If the respondent did not plan to buy a new television, what is the probability that
he or she did not buy a new television?
19. A company has made available to its employees (without charge) extensive health
club facilities that may be used before work, during the lunch hour, after work, and on
weekends. Records for the last year indicate that of 250 employees, 110 used the
facilities at some time. Of 170 males employed by the company, 65 used the facilities.
a. Set up the 2X2 table
b. What is the probability that an employees chosen at random
i. is a male? 170/250
ii. is a female? 80/250
iii. Has used the health club facilities? 110/250
iv. is female and has used the health club facilities? 45/250
v. is male and has not used the health club facilities? 105/250
vi. is female or has used the health club facilities? 145/250
vii. is male or has not used the health club facilities? 205/250
viii. suppose that we select female employees of the company. What then is
the probability that she has used the health club facilities? 45/80
20. A sample of 500 respondents was selected in a large metropolitan area in order to
determine various information concerning consumer behaviors. Among the question
asked was” do you enjoy shopping for clothing?" Of 240 males, 136 answered yes.
Of 260 females, 224 answered yes.
a. Set up the 2X2 table
b. What is the probability that a respondent chosen at random
i. is a male?
ii. enjoys shopping for clothing?
iii. is females?
iv. is females and enjoys shopping for clothing?
v. is male and does not enjoys shopping for clothing?
vi. is females or enjoys shopping for clothing?
vii. is male or females?
c. Suppose the respondent chosen is a female. What then is the probability that
she does not enjoy shopping for clothing?
d. Suppose the respondent chosen enjoys shopping for clothing. What then is the
probability that the individual is a male?
21. If P (A and B) =0.4 and P (B) =0.8, find P (A/B)
22. If P (A) =0.7 and P (B) =0.6, and if A and B are statistically independent, find
P (A and B)
23. Given that P(A) = 3/14, P(B) = 1/6, P(C) = 1/3 ,P(AC) = 1/7 and P(B/C) = 5/21. Find
the following probabilities:
a. P(A/C)
b. P(C/A)
c. P(BC)
d. P(C/B)
24. At a soup kitchen, a social worker gathers the following data. Of those visiting the
kitchen, 59 percent are men, 32 percent are alcoholics and 21 percent are male
alcoholics. What is the probability that a random male visitor to the kitchen is an
alcoholic? (0.356)

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25. During a study of auto accidents, the Highway Safety Council found that 60 percent
of all accidents occur at night, 52 percent are alcohol related and 37 percent occur at
night and are alcohol related.
a.What is the probability that an accident was alcohol related given that it
occurred at night? 0.616
b. What is the probability that an accident occurred at night given that it
was alcohol related? 0.7115

We have P(N) = 0.6

P(A) = 0.52 and P(N∩A) = 0.37
A) (A/N) = P(N∩A)/P(N) = 0.37/0.6 = 0.616
B) P(N/A) = P(N∩A)/P(A) = 0.37/0.52 = 0.7115

26. If a hurricane forms in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, there is a 76 percent
chance that it will strike the western coast of Florida. From data gathered over the past
50 years, it has been determined that the probability of a hurricane’s occurring in this
area in any given year is 0.85. What is the probability that a hurricane will occur in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and strike Florida this year? 0.646

P(f/g) = 0.76, and p(g) = 0.85

P(fg) = p(g) * p (f/g) = 0.85 * 0.76= 0.646

27. The southeast regional manager of General Express, a private parcel delivery firm is
worried about the likelihood of strikes by some of his employees. He has learned that
the probability of a strike by his pilots is 0.75 and the probability of a strike by his
drivers is 0.65. Further, he knows that if the drivers strike, there is a 90 percent chance
that the pilots will strike in sympathy.
a. What is the probability of both groups striking? (0.585)
b. If the pilots strike, what is the probability that the drivers will strike in
sympathy? (0.78)

P(p) = 0.75, p(d) =0.65, and p(p/d) = 0.9

a) P(pd) = p(d) * p(p/d) = 0.65 * 0.9 = 0.585
b) P(d/p) = p(pd)/p(p) = 0.585/0.75 = 0.78

28. A bag contain 32 marbles: 4 are red, 9 are blacks, 12 are blue, 6 are yellow and 1 is
purple. Marbles are drawn one at a time with replacement. What is the probability that
a. The second marble is yellow given that the first one was yellow? (6/32)
b. The second marble is yellow given that the first one was black? (6/32)
c. The third marble is purple given that both the first and second was purple?
(1/32)
P(a/b) =p(a) if a and b are independent.

What is the probability that first is yellow and second is yellow?

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 Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

29. Suppose you believe the probability that you will get an A in statistics is 0.6 and the
probability that you will get an A in organizational behavior is 0.8 .if these events are
independent, what is the probability that you will get an A in both statistics and
organizational behavior? = 0.6*0.8 = 0.48
30. A certain type of new business succeeds 60% of the time. Suppose that 3 such
business open (where they do not compute with each other. So it is reasonable to
believe that their relative successes would be independent). What is probability that
all 3 businesses fail? = 0.4*0.4*0.4= 0.064

Application of Bays Theorem:

31. A Company has two plants to manufacture the screws. Out of 10000 screws, plant I
manufactures 80% of the screws and plant II manufactures 20%. At plant I, 85%
screws are rated standard quality. At plant II, only 65% screws are rated standard
quality. One screw is selected at random from the whole consignment and was found
standard quality. What is the probability that the selected screw was manufactured by
(a) plant I (b) plant II

32. A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production
volumes 500, 1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past experience, it is
known that the fraction of defective output produced by the three plants are
respectively 0.005, 0.008 and 0.010. If a pipe is selected from a day’s total production
and found to be defective find out
a. What is the probability that it came from first plant?=0.081(0.217)
b. What is the probability that it came from the second plant?
=0.062(0.347)
c. What is the probability that it came from the third plant?=0.65 (0.434)
d. From which plant the pipe comes?

M1 = 500
D = 2.5

P(M1) = 500/3500=0.142 P(M2) = 0.285 P(M3) = 0.571

P(D/M1) = 0.005 P(D/M2) = 0.008 P(D/M3)= 0.010

A) P(M1/D) = P(M1) * P(D/M1)/P(D) = 0.082

B) P(M2/D) = P(M2) * P(D/M2)/P(D) = 0.2624
C) P(M3/D) = P(M3) * P(D/M3)/P(D)= 0.65

P(D/M1) = 0.005

P(D) = P(M1)*P(D/M1)+ P(M2)*P(D/M2)+ P(M3) *(P(D/M3)= 0.142*0.005+

0.285*0.008 + 0.571*0.010 = 0.00871

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Chapter 5: Assignments on Probability

33. A Company has 2 machines that produce widgets. An older machine produces 23%
defective widgets, while the new machine produces only 8% defective widgets. In
additions, the new machine produces 3 times as many widgets as the older machine
does.
a.What is the probability that a randomly chosen widget produced by the
company is defective? 0.1175 (0.31)
b. Given that a randomly chosen widget was tested and found to be
defective, what is the probability it was produced by the new machine?=0.510
c.Given that a randomly chosen widget was tested and found to be defective,
what is the probability it was produced by the old machine? = 0.489

P(M1) = ¼=0.25 P(M2) = ¾=0.75

P(D/M1) = 0.23 P(D/M2) = 0.08

P(D) 0.25 *0.23+ 0.75 *0.08 = 0.1175

P(M2/D) = 0.75*0.08/0.1175= 0.51

P(M1/D) = 0.25 * 0.23 / 0.1175 =0.489

34. The chances of X, Y, Z becoming manager will be of a certain company are 4:2:3.
The probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if X, Y, Z becomes manager
are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been introduced, what is the
probability that X is appointed as the manager? 0.26

P(X) = 4/9 P(Y) = 2/9 P(Z) = 3/9

P(B/X) = 0.3 P(B/Y) = 0.5 P(B/Z) =0.8

P(X/B) = 4/9 *0.3/0.806 = 0.26

P(B) = 0.806

STATISITCS FOR MANAGEMTN: LEVIN AND RUBIN

35. Also 45% of the disputes over wages are resolved without strikes, 70% of the disputes
over working conditions are resolved without strike and 40% of the disputes over
fringe issues are resolved without strike. What is the probability that if a labor
management disputes in this industry is resolved without a strike, it was over wages?
36. A factory has 3 units A, B and C, ‘A’ produce 25% of its products, unit B produce
25% and the unit C produces 50%. If the percentage of defective items produced by
three units A, B and C respectively 1%, 2% and 3%. If one item is selected randomly
from the total production of the factory and found to be defective. What is the
probability that it is produced by the unit C?
37. Shoes are produced by two machines A and B. 50% of the shoes were produced by
machine A with an estimate of 10% of them being defective. On machine B, 20% of
the shoes produced are defective. If a shoe taken at random is found to be defective,
what is the probability that the shoe was produced by machine (i) A (ii) B.?

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