Method of Least
Squares
Least Squares Regression
Linear Regression
• Fitting a straight line to a set of paired observations: (x1, y1), (x2,
y2),…,(xn, yn).
y=a0+a1x+e
a1- slope
a0- intercept
e- error, or residual, between the model and the observations
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Criteria for a “Best” Fit/
• Minimize the sum of the residual errors for all
available data:
n n
e (y
i 1
i
i 1
i ao a1 xi )
n = total number of points
• However, this is an inadequate criterion, so is the sum
of the absolute values
n n
e y a
i 1
i
i 1
i 0 a1 xi
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Figure
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• Best strategy is to minimize the sum of the squares of
the residuals between the measured y and the y
calculated with the linear model:
n n n
S r ei2 ( yi , measured yi , model ) 2 ( yi a0 a1 xi ) 2
i 1 i 1 i 1
• Yields a unique line for a given set of data.
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Least-Squares Fit of a Straight Line/
S r
2 ( yi ao a1 xi ) 0
ao
S r
2 ( yi ao a1 xi ) xi 0
a1
0 yi a 0 a1 xi
0 yi xi a 0 xi a1 xi2
a 0 na0 Normal equations, can be
na0 xi a1 yi solved simultaneously
n xi yi xi yi
a1
n x xi
2 2
i Mean values
a0 y a1 x Engineering Mathematics III
Figure :
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Figure :
Engineering Mathematics III
Figure:
Engineering Mathematics III
“Goodness” of our fit/
If
• Total sum of the squares around the mean for the
dependent variable, y, is St
• Sum of the squares of residuals around the regression
line is Sr
• St-Sr quantifies the improvement or error reduction
due to describing data in terms of a straight line rather
than as an average value.
St S r
r
2
St
r2-coefficient of determination
2) – correlation
Sqrt(rEngineering Mathematics IIIcoefficient
• For a perfect fit
Sr=0 and r=r2=1, signifying that the line explains 100
percent of the variability of the data.
• For r=r2=0, Sr=St, the fit represents no improvement.
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Polynomial Regression
• Some engineering data is poorly represented by a straight line. For
these cases a curve is better suited to fit the data. The least squares
method can readily be extended to fit the data to higher order
polynomials .
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General Linear Least Squares
y a0 z0 a1 z1 a2 z 2 am z m e
z0 , z1, , z m are m 1 basis functions
Y Z A E
Z matrix of the calculated values of the basis functions
at the measured values of the independent variable
Y observed valued of the dependent variable
A unknown coefficien ts
E residuals
2 Minimized by taking its partial
n m
S r yi a j z ji derivative w.r.t. each of the
coefficients and setting the
i 1 j 0 resulting equation equal to zero
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