Addis Ababa University

Addis Ababa institute of technology

CENG 3301 Transport Engineering

CHAPTER 3
TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM ANALYSIS

Instructor: Asres Simeneh

[email protected] 1

Topics covered
 Traffic engineering studies
 Fundamental principles of traffic flow
 Queuing Analysis

2
 Traffic engineering studies
• Even though transportation has provided several advantages
that contribute to a high standard of living, several problems
related to the highway mode of transportation exist. These
problems include highway-related accidents, parking
difficulties, congestion, and delay.
• To reduce the negative impact of highways, it is necessary to
adequately collect information that describes the extent of
the problems and identifies their locations.
• Such information is usually collected by organizing and
conducting traffic surveys and studies.

Spot speed studies

• Used to estimate the distribution of speeds of vehicles in a
stream of traffic at a particular location on a highway.
• Speed characteristics identified by such a study will be valid
only for the traffic and environmental conditions that exist
at the time of the study.
• Speed characteristics determined from a spot speed study
may be used
 Establish speed zones
 Determine whether complaints about speeding are valid

4
 Cont..
 Establish passing and no-passing zones
 Design geometric alignment
 Analyze accident data
 Evaluate the effects of physical improvements,
 Determine the effects of speed enforcement programs
and speed control measures.
 Determine speed trends and so forth.

Locations for Spot Speed Studies

• It depend on the anticipated use of the results
• It may be for basic data collection or speed trend analyses.
Any location may be used for the solution of a specific traffic
engineering problem.
• When spot speed studies are being conducted, it is important
that unbiased data be obtained. This requires that drivers be
unaware that such a study is being conducted.
• Equipment used should therefore be concealed from the
driver, and observers conducting the study should be
inconspicuous.

6
 Time of Day and Duration of Spot
Speed Studies
• Depends on the purpose of the study.
• If it is to establish posted speed limits or to observe speed
trends or to collect basic data, it is recommended that the study
be conducted when traffic is free-flowing, usually during off-
peak hours.
• If a speed study is conducted in response to citizen complaints,
it is useful if the time period selected for the study reflects the
nature of the complaints.
• The duration of the study should be such that the minimum
number of vehicle speeds required for statistical analysis is
recorded. Typically, the duration is at least 1 hour and the
sample size is at least 30 vehicles.
7

Definitions of values used to describe

speed characteristics
Average speed
• Arithmetic mean of all observed vehicle speeds.

Median speed
• The speed at the middle value in a series of spot speeds that
are arranged in ascending order. Fifty percent of the speed
values will be greater than the median; 50 percent will be less
than the median.
Modal speed
 The speed value that occurs most frequently in a sample of
spot speeds.
8
 Cont..
The ith percentile spot speed
• The spot speed value below which i percent of the vehicles
travel. Ex. 85th-percentile spot speed is the speed below which
85 percent of the vehicles travel and above which 15 percent
of the vehicles travel.
Pace
• The range of speed usually taken at 10 Km/hr intervals that
has the greatest number of observations.

Cont..
Standard deviation of speeds
A measure of the spread of the individual speeds. It is estimated as

• Speed data are frequently presented in classes where each class

consists of all range of speeds. The standard deviation is
computed for such cases as.

• Where: ui= midvalue of speed class i, fi= frequency of speed

class i
10
 Sample Size for Spot Speed Studies
• The calculated mean (or average) speed is used to represent
the true mean value of all vehicle speeds at that location.
• The number of vehicles in the sample affects the accuracy of
this assumption.
• It is therefore necessary to select a sample size that will give
an estimated mean within acceptable error limits. Statistical
procedures are used to determine this minimum sample size.
• The minimum sample size depends on the precision level
desired. The precision level is defined as the degree of
confidence that the sampling error of a produced estimate
will fall within a desired fixed range.

11

Cont..
• The properties of the normal distribution have been used to
develop an equation relating the sample size to the number
of standard variations corresponding to a particular
confidence level, the limits of tolerable error, and the
standard deviation. The formula is

Where: N= minimum sample size; Z = number of standard

deviations corresponding to the required confidence level
1.96 for 95 percent confidence level; = standard deviation
(mph); d = limit of acceptable error in the speed estimate
(mph).
• The standard deviation can be estimated from previous data,
or a small sample size can first be used. 12
 Methods for Conducting Spot
Speed Studies
• Two main categories: manual and automatic.

Automatic detectors
• Automatic devices can be grouped into three main categories:
(1) Those that use road detectors,
(2) Those that use Doppler principle meters (radar type), and
(3) Those that use the principles of electronics.

13

Road Detectors
• Classified into two general categories: pneumatic road tubes
and induction loops.
• Used to collect speeds and volume data.
• When road detectors are used to measure speed, they should
be laid on the road by separating the a distance of 3 to 15 ft.
• The advantage of the detector meters is that human errors are
considerably reduced.
• The disadvantages are that (1) devices are expensive (2) when
pneumatic tubes are used, they may be conspicuous and
therefore, affect driver behavior, resulting in a distortion of
the speed distribution.
14
 15

Doppler-Principle Meters

• The principle is based on that when a signal is transmitted

onto a moving vehicle, the change in frequency between the
transmitted signal and the reflected signal is proportional to
the speed of the moving vehicle.
• The difference between the frequency of the transmitted
signal and that of the reflected signal is measured by the
equipment, and then converted to speed in mph.
• The advantage of this method is that because pneumatic
tubes are not used, if the equipment can be located at an
inconspicuous position, the influence on driver behavior is
considerably reduced.
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 17

Electronic-Principle Detectors

• The presence of vehicles is detected through electronic

means, and information on these vehicles is obtained, from
which traffic characteristics such as speed, volume, queues,
and headways are computed.
• The great advantage of this method over the use of road
detectors is that it is not necessary to physically install loops
or any other type of detector on the road.
• The most promising technology using electronics is video
image processing, sometimes referred to as a machine-vision
system. This system consists of an electronic camera
overlooking a large section of the roadway and a
microprocessor.
18
 Cont..
• The electronic camera receives the images from the road; the
microprocessor determines the vehicle's presence or passage.
This information is then used to determine the traffic
characteristics in real time.

19

Volume studies
• Conducted to collect data on the number of vehicles and/or
pedestrians that pass a point on a highway facility during a
specified time period.
• This the period varies from as little as 15 min to as much as a
year, depending on the anticipated use of the data.
• The data collected may also be put into subclasses which
may include directional movement, occupancy rates, vehicle
classification, and pedestrian age.

20
 Cont..
• Traffic volume studies are usually conducted when certain
volume characteristics are needed. some of which are:
Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)
• To estimate the highway user revenues
• Computation of accident rates in terms of accidents per 100
million vehicles per miles
• Establishment of traffic volume trends
• Evaluation of the economic feasibility of highway projects
• Development of freeway and major arterial street systems
• Development of improvement and maintenance programs

21

Cont..
Average Daily Traffic (ADT)
• The average of 24-hour counts collected over a number of
days greater than 1 but less than a year.
• ADTs may be used for Planning of highway activities,
Measurement of current demand, Evaluation of existing
traffic flow and so forth.
Peak Hour Volume (PHV)
• The maximum number of vehicles that pass a point on a
highway during a period of 60 consecutive minutes.

22
 Cont..
• The peak hour volumes PHVs are used for,
 Functional classification of highways,
 Design of the geometric characteristics of a highway.
• Number of lanes,
• Intersection signalization or channelization,
 For capacity analysis.
 Development of programs related to traffic operations.
 Development of parking regulations and etc.

23

24
25

26
Vehicle Classification (VC)
• Volume records with respect to the type of vehicles, for
example, passenger cars, two-axle trucks, or three-axle trucks.
VC is used in:
 Design of geometric characteristics, Ex. turning radii,
maximum grades, lane widths and so forth.
 Capacity analyses, with respect to PCE of trucks
 Adjustment of traffic counts obtained by machines
 Structural design of highway pavements, bridges, and so forth
Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)
• A measure of travel along a section of road. It is the product
of the traffic volume and the length of roadway in miles to
which the volume is applicable.
• VMTs are used mainly as a base for allocating resources for
maintenance and improvement of highways.
27

Methods of Conducting Volume Counts

• Traffic volume counts are conducted using two basic
methods: manual and automatic.
I. Manual Method
• Manual counting involves one or more persons recording
observed vehicles using a counter. The main disadvantages
of the manual count method are that
 It is labor-intensive and can therefore be expensive,
 It is subject to the limitations of human factors, and
 It cannot be used for long periods of counting.

28
 Cont..
II.Automatic Method
• The automatic counting method involves the laying of
surface detectors (such as pneumatic road tubes) or
subsurface detectors (such as magnetic or electric contact
devices) on the road.
• These detect the passing vehicle and transmit the
information to a recorder, which is connected to the detector
at the side of the road.

29

Traffic Volume Data Presentation

• The data collected from traffic volume counts may be
presented in one of several ways, depending on the type of
count conducted and the primary use of the data.
• Some of the conventional data presentation techniques are:
 Traffic Flow Maps
 Intersection Summary Sheets
 Time-Based Distribution Charts
 Summary Tables

30
 Traffic Volume Characteristics
• A continuous count of traffic at a section of a road will
show that traffic volume varies from hour to hour, from
day to day, and from month to month.
• These characteristics of traffic volumes are taken in to
consideration when traffic counts are being planned so that
volumes collected at a particular time or place can be
related to volumes collected at other times and places.
• Knowledge of these characteristics can also be used to
estimate the accuracy of traffic counts.

31

Sample Size and Adjustment of

Periodic Counts
• It is impractical to collect data continuously every day of the
year at all counting stations.
• Therefore analysis is done by collect sample data from each
class of highway and estimate annual traffic volumes from
that periodic counts.
• This involves the determination of the minimum sample size
(number of count stations) for a required level of accuracy
and the determination of daily, monthly, and/or seasonal
expansion factors for each class of highway.

32
Adjustment of Periodic Counts
• Expansion factors, used to adjust periodic counts, are
determined either from continuous count stations or from
control count stations.
Hourly expansion factors (HEFs)
• Which is determined by the formula

• These factors are used to expand counts of durations shorter

than 24 hr to 24-hr volumes by multiplying the hourly volume
for each hour during the count period by the HEF for that
hour and finding the mean of these products.
33

Cont..
Daily expansion factors (DEFs)
• Computed as:

• These factors used to determine weekly volumes from counts

of 24-hr duration multiplying the 24-hr volume by the DEF.
Monthly expansion factors (MEFs)
Computed as:

• The AADT for a given year may be obtained from the ADT
for a given month multiplying this volume by the MEF.
34
 Travel time and delay studies
• A travel time study determines the amount of time required
to travel from one point to another on a given route.
• In conducting such a study, information may also be
collected on the locations, durations, and causes of delays.
This study is good indication of the level of service on the
study section.
Applications
• For Det. of the efficiency of a route to carry traffic
• To identify the locations and causes for those delays
• Evaluate the effectiveness of traffic operation improvements
35

Cont..
• Necessary inputs for trip assignment models
• Compilation of travel time data
• Performance of economic studies in the evaluation of traffic
operation alternatives that reduce travel time.
Definition of Terms
Travel time: the time taken to traverse a given section of highway
Stopped-time delay: delay during which the vehicle is at rest.
Running time: the time a vehicle is actually in motion
Delay: the time lost by a vehicle due to causes beyond the control
of the driver.
36
 Cont..
Operational delay: is part of the delay caused by the impedance
of other traffic Eg. parking or un parking vehicles.
Fixed delay is part of the delay caused by control devices
regardless of the traffic volume or the impedance that may exist.
Eg. traffic signals.
Travel-time delay: is the difference between the actual travel
time and the time that will be obtained by assuming that a
vehicle traverses the study section at an average speed equal to
that for an open traffic flow on the section being studied.

37

Methods for Conducting Travel Time and

Delay Studies
• Several methods have been used to conduct travel time and
delay studies. These methods can be grouped into two
general categories:
(1) Those using a test vehicle and
(2) Those not requiring a test vehicle.
Methods Requiring a Test Vehicle
This category involves three possible techniques:
 Floating-car
 Average-speed
 Moving-vehicle techniques.
38
 Cont..
Floating-Car Technique.
• The driver of the test vehicle attempts to pass as many
vehicles as those that pass his test vehicle.
• The time taken to traverse the study section is recorded. This
is repeated, and the average time is taken as the travel time.
• The minimum number of test runs can be determined using
values of the T-distribution. The equation is

Where: N = sample size, s = Stan. deviation (mph), d = limit of acceptable

error (mph), t∝= value of the student's t distribution with (1 - a/2)
confidence level and (N - 1) degrees of freedom, a = significance level

39

Cont..
Average-Speed Technique.
• This technique involves driving the test car along the length
of the test section at a speed that, in the opinion of the
driver.
• The time required to traverse the test section is noted. The
test run is repeated for the minimum number of times and
the average time is recorded as the travel time.
Moving-Vehicle Technique.
• In this technique, the observer makes a round trip on a test
section where it is assumed that the road runs east-west.

40
 Cont..
• The observer starts collecting the relevant data at section X-
X, drives the car eastward to section Y-Y, and then turns the
vehicle around and drives westward to section X-X again.
The following data are collected as the test vehicle makes the
round trip:

• The time it takes to travel from X-X to Y-Y (Te), in minutes

• The time it takes to travel from Y-Y to X-X (Tw), in minutes
• The number of vehicles traveling west in the opposite lane while the test
car is traveling east (Ne)
41

Cont..
• The number of vehicles that overtake the test car while it is traveling
from Y-Y to X-X, that is, traveling in the westbound direction (Ow)
• The number of vehicles that the test car passes while it is traveling from
Y-Y to X-X, that is, traveling in the westbound direction (Pw)
• The volume Vw in the westbound direction can be obtained:

• Where, (Ne+ Ow - Pw) is the number of vehicles traveling

westward that cross the line X-X during the time (Te-Tw).
• Similarly, the average travel time Tw in the westbound
direction is obtained from

42
 Cont..
Methods Not Requiring a Test Vehicle
This category includes the
 License-plate method and
 The interview method
1. License-Plate Observations.
• The license-plate method requires that observers be posi-
tioned at the beginning and end of the test section.
• Observers can also be positioned at other locations if elapsed
times to those locations are required. Each observer records
the last three or four digits of the license plate of each car
that passes, together with the time at which the car passes.
43

Cont..
Interviews
 obtaining information from people who drive on the study
site regarding their travel times, their experience of delays,
and so forth.
 This method facilitates the collection of a large amount of
data in a relatively short time. However, it requires the
cooperation of the people contacted, since the result depends
entirely on the information given by them.

44
 Parking studies
Types of Parking Facilities
• Two main groups parking facilities
 On-street
 Off-street.
On-Street Parking Facilities
• Also known as curb facilities.
• Parking bays are provided alongside the curb on one or both
sides of the street.
Off-Street Parking Facilities
• These facilities may be privately or publicly owned; they
include surface lots and garages.
45

46
 Definitions of Parking Terms
A space-hour:
• A unit of parking that defines the use of a single parking
space for a period of 1 hr.
Parking volume
• The total number of vehicles that park in a study area during
a specific length of time, usually a day.
Parking accumulation
• The number of parked vehicles in a study area at any
specified time. These data can be plotted as a curve of
parking accumulation against time, which shows the variation
of the parking accumulation during the day.

47

Cont..
The parking load
• The area under the accumulation curve between two specific
times. It is usually given as the number of space-hours used
during the specified period of time.
Parking duration
• The length of time a vehicle is parked at a parking bay. When
the parking duration is given as an average, it gives an
indication of how frequently a parking space becomes
available.
Parking turnover
• The rate of use of a parking space. It is obtained by dividing
the parking volume for a specified period by the number of
parking spaces.
48
 Methods of Parking Studies
• A comprehensive parking study usually involves
1. List of existing parking facilities
2. Collection of data on parking accumulation, parking
turnover, and parking duration.
3. Identification of parking generators.
4. Collection of information on parking demand.
5. Information on related factors, such as financial, legal, and
administrative matters, may also be collected.

49

Fundamental Principles
of Traffic Flow
• Traffic flow theory involves the development of
mathematical relationships among the primary elements of a
traffic stream: flow, density, and speed.
• These relationships help the traffic engineer in planning,
designing, and evaluating the effectiveness of implementing
traffic engineering measures on a highway system.
• Traffic flow theory is used in design to determine adequate
lane lengths for storing left-turn vehicles on separate left-
turn lanes, the average delay at intersections, freeway ramp
merging areas, changes in the level of freeway performance
due to the installation of improved vehicular control devices
on ramps.
50
 51

Cont..
• Another important application of traffic flow theory is
simulation, where mathematical algorithms are used to study
the complex interrelationships that exist among the elements
of a traffic stream or network and to estimate the effect of
changes in traffic flow on factors such as accidents, travel
time, air pollution, and gasoline consumption.
Traffic flow elements
• The primary elements of traffic flow are flow, density, and
speed. Another element associated with density, is the gap or
headway between two vehicles in a traffic. The definitions of
these elements follow.
52
 Cont..
Flow (q)
• The equivalent hourly rate at which vehicles pass a point on
a highway during a time period less than 1 hr.

• Where: n = the number of vehicles passing a point in the

roadway in T sec; q = the equivalent hourly flow.

Density (k)
• Also known as concentration, is the number of vehicles
traveling over a unit length of highway at an instant in time.
The unit length is usually 1 mile thereby making vehicles per
mile (vpm) the unit of density.
53

Cont..
Speed (u)
• The distance traveled by a vehicle during a unit of time. It
can be expressed in mph, or ft/sec), etc..
• The speed of a vehicle at any time t is the slope of the time-
space diagram for that vehicle at time t.
The time-space diagram is a
graph that describes the
relationship between the
location of vehicles in a
traffic stream and the time
as the vehicles progress
along the highway.

54
 Cont..
Time mean speed ( t)
• The arithmetic mean of the speeds of vehicles passing a
point on a highway during an interval of time. The time
mean speed is found by

• Where: n =number of vehicles passing a point on the

highway; ui = speed of the ith vehicle (ft/sec)

55

Cont..
Space mean speed ( s)
• The harmonic mean of the speeds of vehicles passing a point
in a highway during an interval of time.
• It is obtained by dividing the total distance traveled by two
or more vehicles on a section of highway by the total time
required by these vehicles to travel that distance. This is the
speed that is involved in flow-density relationships.
• Where: s = space mean speed (ft/sec);
• n = number of vehicles;
• ti = the time it takes the ith vehicle to travel
across a section of highway (sec); Ui =speed
of the ith vehicle (ft/sec);
• L = length of section of highway (ft)56
 Example (TMS & SMS)

57

Cont..
Time headway (h)
• The difference between the time the front of a vehicle arrives
at a point on the highway and the time the front of the next
vehicle arrives at that same point. And usually expressed in
seconds.
Space headway (d)
• The distance between the front of a vehicle and the front of
the following vehicle. It is usually expressed in feet.

58
 Example (TH & SH)

59

us  q * d

Flow-density relationships
• The general equation relating flow, density, and space mean
speed is given as
 Flow = (density) x (space mean speed)

 Space mean speed = (flow) x (space headway)

Where: = (1/ k) = average space headway

60
 Cont..
 Density = (flow) x (travel time for unit distance)

Where: ̅ is the average time for unit distance.

 Avg space headway = space mean speed x average time headway

 Average time headway = (average travel time for unit distance) x

(average space headway)

61

Fundamental diagram of traffic flow

• The relationship between the density (vpm) and the
corresponding flow of traffic on a highway generally is
referred to as the fundamental diagram of traffic flow.
• The fol1owing theory has been postulated with respect to
the shape of the curve depicting this relationship.
 When the density on the highway is zero, the flow is also
zero because there are no vehicles on the highway.
 As the density increases, the flow also increases. However,
when the density reaches its maximum, generally referred to
as the jam density (kj), the flow must be zero because
vehicles will tend to line up end to end.

62
 63

Cont..
• When the flow is very low, drivers are free to travel at the
maximum possible speed. The absolute maximum speed is
obtained as the flow tends to zero, and it is known as the
mean free speed (Uf).
• Continuous increase in flow will result in a continuous
decrease in speed. And finally it reaches at congestion.

64
 65

Mathematical relationships
describing traffic flow
• Mathematical relationships describing traffic flow classified into
two general Categories
• Macroscopic (flow density relationships)
• Microscopic (spacing between and speed of individual vehicles)

Macroscopic Approach
• This approach considers traffic streams and develops
algorithms that relate the flow to the density and space mean
speeds. The two most commonly used macroscopic models are
the Green shields and Greenberg models.

66
 Cont..
Green shields Model.
• Green shields studied the relationship between speed and
density and he hypothesized that a linear relationship
existed between speed and density, which he expressed as
• …………… eq 1

Corresponding relationships for flow and density and for flow

and speed can be developed.
……… eq 2

67

Cont..
• Rearranging eq.2 for density (K) and sub. In eq.1
……………….Eq. 3

• Also substituting for in q/k for s in Eq. 1

………….Eq. 4

• Eq 3 and 4 indicate that if a linear relationship in the form of

Eq. 2 is assumed for speed and density, then parabolic
relationships are obtained between flow and density and
between flow and speed. 68
 Cont..
• The shape of the curve shown below will therefore be a
parabola.

69

Cont..
• To determine the corresponding speed and the corresponding
density for maximum flow.
• Consider Eq. 3
• Differentiating q with respect to s we obtain:

• That is

• For maximum flow.

70
 Cont..
• Thus, the space mean speed uo, at which the volume is
maximum, is equal to half the free mean speed.
Consider Eg. 4.

• Differentiating q with respect to k, we obtain

For maximum flow.

71

Cont..
• Thus, at the maximum flow, the density k. is half the jam
density.
• The maximum flow for the Greenshields relationship can
therefore be obtained from:

72
 Greenberg Model
• Several researchers have used the analogy of fluid flow to
develop macroscopic relationships for traffic flow. One of
the major contributions using the fluid-flow analogy was
developed by Greenberg in the form.

• Differentiating q with respect to k, we obtain.

73

Cont..
• For maximum flow.
• Giving
• That is

• and Substituting 1 for

• Eq. Gives
• Thus, the value of c is the speed at maximum flow.

74
 Model Application
• The use of macroscopic models depends on whether they
satisfy the boundary criteria of the fundamental diagram of
traffic flow at the region that describes the traffic conditions.
• For example, the Green shields model satisfies the boundary
conditions when the density k is approaching either zero or
jam density kj. The Greenshields model therefore can be
used for light or dense traffic.
• The Greenberg model, on the other hand, satisfies the
boundary conditions when the density is approaching the
jam density, but it does not satisfy when k is approaching
zero. The Greenberg model is therefore useful only for
dense traffic conditions
75

Calibration of Macroscopic Traffic

Flow Models
• The traffic models can be used to determine specific
characteristics such as the speed and density at which
maximum flow occurs and the jam density of a facility.
• This usually involves collecting appropriate data on the
particular facility and fitting the data points obtained. The
most common method of approach is regression analysis.
• If a dependent variable y and an independent variable x are
related by an estimated regression function, then

76
 Cont..
• The constants a and b could be determined from:

And

The closer is to 1, the

better the regression fit.
• Where: n = number of sets of observations; xi = ith observ
for x; yi = ith observation for y.
• Yi is the value of the dependent variable as computed from
the regression equations. 77

Example
Two platoons of cars are timed over a distance of 0.5km. Their
flows are recorded. The first group is timed at 40 seconds, with
the flow at 1350 vehicles per hour. The second group take 45
seconds, with a flow of 1800 vehicles per hour. Determine the
maximum flow of the traffic stream.
Soln
Group 1 has an average speed of (0.5km/40sec)*3600 = 45km/h
Group 2 has an average speed of (0.5km/45sec)*3600 = 40km/h
Group 1 k = 1350/45 = 30v/km
Group 2 k = 1800/40 = 45v/km

78
 Example (con..)
To get the consequent relationship between speed and density
based on the above two results, use co-ordinate geometry:

Where
y = speed , x=density

The slope, m, of the line joining the above two results

m= -5/15 = -1/3

79

Example (con..)
Examining the boundary conditions:
Free flow speed = 55km/h @ Density = 0
Jam density = 165v/km @ speed = 0
Max flow = 55 * 165/4 = 2269 v/h

80
 Example
# Fitting speed and density data to the greenshield and
greenberg model.

81

82
 Microscopic Approach
• The microscopic approach, which is sometimes referred to
as the car-following theory or follow the leader theory,
considers spacing between and speeds of individual vehicles.
• Consider two consecutive vehicles, A and B, on a single lane
of a highway, as shown in Fig.
• If the leading vehicle is considered to be the nth vehicle and
the following vehicle is considered the (n + 1)th vehicle, then
the distances of these vehicles from a fixed section at any
time t can be taken as Xn and Xn+1 respectively.

83

• If the driver of vehicle B maintains an additional separation

distance P above the separation distance at rest S such that P
is proportional to the speed of vehicle B, then
• …………..eq 1

Where: = factor of proportionality with units of time;

th
n+1= speed of the (n + l) vehicle

84
 Cont..
We can write
………eq. 2

• Where S is the distance between front bumpers of vehicles at

rest. Differentiating the above equ. Gives.

……… eq. 3
• Equation 3 is the basic equation of the microscopic models
and it describes the stimulus response of the models.
85

Cont..
• Researchers have shown that a time lag exists for a driver to
respond to any stimulus that is induced by the vehicle just
ahead, and Eq. 3 can therefore be written as
……………………..…….Eq. 4

Where: T = time lag of response to the stimulus;

=1⁄ (sometimes called the sensitivity)
• A general expression for is given in the form:
…………Eq.5

86
 Cont..
• The general expression for the microscopic models can
then be written as:

• ……………………………...Eq.6

• Where a, l, and m are constants.

• The microscopic model Eq. 6 can be used to determine the
velocity, flow, and density of a traffic stream when the
traffic stream is moving in a steady state.
87

Cont..
• The direct analytical solution of either Eq 4 or Eq 6 is not easy.
It can be shown, however, that the macroscopic models
discussed earlier can all be obtained from Eq. 6.
• For example, if m =0 and l =1, the acceleration of the (n+1)th
vehicle is given as

…….eq 7
Integrating the above expression, we find that the velocity of the
(n + 1)th vehicle is:
…….eq 8

88
 Cont..
• Since we are considering the steady state condition,

…….eq 9
Also,
Xn – Xn-1 =Average space headway =1⁄

89

Cont..
• Using the boundary condition, u=0 When k = kj

• Substituting for C in the equation for u, we obtain

Which is the Greenberg model. Similarly, if m is allowed to be 0

and l =2, we obtain the Greenshilds model.
90
 Shock waves in traffic streams
• Flow-speed-density states change over space and time. When
these changes of state occur a boundary is established that
demarks the time-space domain of one flow state from
another. This boundary is referred to as a shock wave.
• Shock waves are defined as boundary conditions in the time-
space domain that demark a discontinuity in flow-density
conditions.
• Ex. Accidents, Reduction in the number of lanes, Restricted
bridge sizes, Work zones, a Signal turning red, and so forth.

91

Cont..
• This results a change in the capacity on the highway from C1
to a lower value of C2, with a corresponding change in
optimum density from Ka to a value of Kb.
• Also the speeds of the vehicles will have to be reduced while
passing the bottleneck.
• An observer will see that this point moves upstream as traffic
continues to approach the vicinity of the bottleneck,
indicating an upstream movement of the point at which flow
and density change.
• This phenomenon is usually referred to as a shockwave in
the traffic stream.
92
 • In some situations the shock wave can be very mild, like a
platoon of high-speed vehicles catching up to a slightly
slower moving vehicle. In other situations the shock wave
can be a very significant change in flow states, as when high-
speed vehicles approach a queue of stopped vehicles.

Change of speed of a moving Shock Wave Phenomena at a

platoon Signalized Intersection 93

Lane drop locations

• The capacity of the lane-drop
location is constant over time
• The peak period the traffic
demands increase, causing demands
to exceed capacities Then decrease
until the peak period is over.
• Assume that the demand equivalent
to 1.5, 2.5, 2.0, and 1.5 lanes of
capacity and the bottleneck capacity
is 2 lanes.

Shock Wave Phenomena at a Freeway

Bottleneck during a Peak Period.
94
 Cont..
• When demand is 1.5 lane no shockwave is exist However, as
soon as the demand increases to 2.5 lanes of capacity, a
backward-forming shock wave will develop having a
constant shock wave velocity.
• When the demand is reduced to 2 lanes of capacity, the input
equals the output and a rear stationary shock wave results. As
the demand is reduced further to 1.5 lanes of capacity, the
length of the congestion region decreases, as shown by the
forward recovery shock wave.
• A frontal stationary shock wave occurs at the bottleneck as
long as the bottleneck operates at capacity.
95

Cont..
• Consider two different densities of traffic, k1 and k2, along a
straight highway. Where k1>k2. Also assume that these
densities are separated by the line w, representing the shock
wave moving at a speed Uw. If the line w moves in the
direction of the arrow (that is, in the direction of the traffic
flow), Uw is positive.

96
 Cont..
• With U1 equal to the space mean speed of vehicles in the area
with density k1 (section P), the speed of the vehicle in this
area relative to the line w is:

• The number of vehicles crossing line w from area P during a

time period t is:

• Similarly, the speed of vehicles in the area with density k2

(section Q) relative to w is:

97

Cont..
• And the number of vehicles crossing line w during a time
period t is:

• Since the net change is zero

• If the flow rates in sections P and Q are ql and q2, respectively,

then:

98
 Cont..
• Substituting ql and q2 for k1u1 and k2u2.

• That is:

• Which is the slope of the line CD shown in Fig. This indicates

that the velocity of the shock wave created by a sudden change
of density from kl to k2 on a traffic stream is the slope of the
chord joining the points associated with kl and k2 on the
volume density curve for that traffic stream.
99

100
Shockwave equations on traffic signal

101

Cont..

102
 Shockwave along a Highway
• At time t1 the truck enters to the highway and leave it at time t2
• At time t3 the shock waves AB and CA collide and terminate

103

Cont..
• At time t1 the truck enters to the highway and leave it at time t2
• Two forward-moving shock waves and the truck trajectory
begin at time t1 at the location where the truck enters the
highway : AD, AB, and uB ( DB).
• Two new shock waves begin at time t2 at the location where the
truck leaves the highway: DC and BC. The shock wave DC
is a forward-moving shock wave, while BC is a backward-
moving shock
• At time t3 the shock waves BC and AB collide and terminate

104
 Cont..

For detail Read May (Traffic Flow Fundamentals) and Garber

105

Example (Shockwave)
# The volume at a section of a two-lane highway is 1500 vph in
each direction, and the density is about 25 vpm. A large dump
truck loaded with soil from an adjacent construction site joins
the traffic stream and travels at a speed of 20 mph for a length
of 2.5 mi along the upgrade before turning off onto a dump
site. Due to the relatively high flow in the opposite direction,
it is impossible for any car to pass the truck. Vehicles just
behind the truck therefore have to travel at the speed of the
truck, which results in the formation of a platoon having a
density of 100 vpm and a flow of 1000 vph. Determine how
many vehicles will be in the platoon by the time the truck
leaves the highway.
106
 Soln
• To obtain the wave velocity.

• The truck is traveling at 20 mph and that the shock wave is moving
backward relative to the road at 6.7 mph, therefore the growth rate
of the platoon.

• Time spent by the truck on the highway 2.5/20 = 0.125hr

• The length of the platoon by the time the truck leaves the
highway.
0.125 x 26.7 = 3.3 mi
107

Gap and gap acceptance

• The interaction of vehicles as they join, leave, or cross a
traffic stream depends on the availability of a gap between
two vehicles.
• Examples are ramp vehicles merging onto an expressway
stream, freeway vehicles leaving the freeway onto frontage
roads, and the changing of lanes by vehicles on a multilane
highway.
• The evaluation of available gaps and the decision to carry
out a specific maneuver within a particular gap are inherent
in the concept of gap acceptance.

108
 Important measures that involve the
concept of gap acceptance.
• Merging : is the process by which a vehicle in one traffic
stream joins another traffic stream moving in the same
direction, such as a ramp vehicle joining a freeway stream.
• Diverging is the process by which a vehicle in a traffic
stream leaves that traffic stream, such as a vehicle leaving
the outside lane of an expressway.
• Weaving is the process by which a vehicle first merges
into a stream of traffic, obliquely crosses that stream, and
then merges into a second stream moving in the same
direction; for example, the maneuver required on an
expressway.

109

Cont..
• Gap : is the headway in a major stream, which is evaluated
by a vehicle driver in a minor stream who wishes to merge
into the major stream. It is expressed either in units of time
(time gap) or in units of distance (space gap).
• Time lag: is the difference between the time a vehicle that
merges into a main traffic stream reaches a point on the
highway in the area of merge and the time a vehicle in the
main stream reaches the same point.
• Space lag is the difference, at an instant of time, between
the distance a merging vehicle is away from a reference point
in the area of merge and the distance a vehicle in the main
stream is away from the same point.
110
 Cont..
• Gap acceptance is the driver feels that he or she will be able
to complete the merging maneuver and safely join the main
stream within the length of the gap.
• It is of importance when engineers are considering the delay
of vehicles on minor roads wishing to join a major-road
traffic stream at un-signalized intersections, and also the
delay of ramp vehicles wishing to join expressways.
• It can also be used in timing the release of vehicles at an on-
ramp of an expressway, such that the probability of the
released vehicle finding an acceptable gap in arriving at the
freeway shoulder lane is maximum.
111

Gap acceptance on time space diagram

112
 Queuing Analysis
• Delay may be defined as the difference between the actual
travel time on a given segment and some ideal travel time
of that segment.
• There are so many reasons for delay. When the analysis of
delay normally focuses on delay that results when demand
exceeds its capacity; such delay is known as queuing delay,
and may be studied by means of queuing theory.
• This theory involves the analysis of what is known as a
queuing system, which is composed of a server; a stream
of customers, who demand service; and a queue, or
line of customers waiting to be served.

113

Components of a basic queuing system

Mean arrival rate (λ)

• It is rate at which customers arrive at a service facility. It is
expressed in flow or time headway.
• If inter arrival time that is time headway (h) is known, the
arrival rate can be found out from the equation: λ=3600/h
where λ is in veh/hr
114
 Cont..
Mean service rate (μ)
• It is the rate at which vehicles leave from a transportation
facility. It is expressed in flow or time headway
• If inter service time that is time headway (h) is known, the
service rate can be found out from the equation:
μ=3600/h where μ is in veh/hr
The number of servers that are being utilized should be
specified and in the manner they work that is they work as
parallel servers or series servers has to be specified.
Example lanes of the road.
115

Cont..
Queue discipline is a parameter that explains how the customers
arrive at a service facility. The various types of queue disciplines
are:
1. First in first out (FIFO)
2. First in last out (FILO)
3. Served in random order (SIRO)
4. Priority scheduling

116
 Queuing Patterns
I. Constant arrival and constant service rates

In the left & above Fig. arrival

rate is less than service rate so
no queuing is encountered and
in the right hand part of the fig
the arrival rate is higher than
service rate, the queue has a
never ending growth with a
queue length equal to the
product of time and the
difference between the arrival
and service rates. 117

Cont..
II. Constant arrival rate and varying service rate
• In the left Fig. arrival rate is
constant over time while the service
rates vary over time.
• Examples of the left figure is a
signalized intersection and that of
the right hand side part of the
figure is an incident or an accident
on the roads which causes a
reduction in the service rate.

118
 Cont..
III. Varying arrival rate and constant service rate
• On the left Fig. the arrival rate vary
over time but service rate is
constant. Both the left and right
parts are examples of traffic
variation over a day on a facility but
the left side fig is an approximation
to make formulations and
calculations simpler and the right
hand side one considers all the
transition periods during changes in
arrival rates.
119

Cont..
IIII. Varying arrival and service rates
• The arrival rate follows a square
wave type and service rate follows
inverted square wave type. The
diagrams on the right side are an
extension of the first one with
transitional periods during changes
in the arrival and service rates.
• These are more complex to
analyzed using analytical methods
so simulation is often employed.
120
 Queuing models
• The generally used notation for describing queue is given by
X / Y/ N where X is the arrival distribution type should be
used, Y is the service distribution type should be used, N
represents the number of servers.
• Some of the most general notations are D/D/1, D/D/N,
M/D/N, M/M/N, M/G/N where D stands for deterministic,
M stands Markovian, G stands for Generalized.
• The analysis of these models is classified as deterministic
analysis and stochastic analysis. If either the arrival distribution
and/or the service distribution are probabilistic, the exact
arrival and/or service time of each vehicle is unknown, and
stochastic queuing analysis must be selected.
121

Cont..
• On the other hand, if both the arrival and service
distributions are deterministic, the arrival and service times
of each vehicle are known and deterministic queuing
analysis is selected.

M/M/1 model
• In this model the arrival times and service rates follow
markovian distribution or exponential distribution which are
probabilistic distributions, so this is an example of stochastic
process. In this model there is only one server.

122
 Cont..
Some of the assumptions we make in this model are:
1. Customers are assumed to be patient.
2. System is assumed to have unlimited capacity.
3. Users arrive from an unlimited source.
4. The queue discipline is assumed to be first in first out.
Utilization factor or r = λ/μ
• The following formulae are valid only if arrival rate is less
than service rate.
f(x) = P(X=x) = rx (1-r)

123

Cont..
• x = 0,1,2.....the number of customers at any instant. With
this formula we can find out what percentage x number of
customers are in the system.
• If x is taken as zero the formula yields the percentage of
time the server is idle. The average number of customers at
any time in the system is
E[x]=r/(1-r)
• The average number of customers in the queue at any time is:
E[Lq ]=r2/(1-r)

124
 Cont..
• Expected time a customer spends in the system:
E[T]=1/(μ-λ)
• Expected time a customer spends in the queue
E[Tq ]=λ/(μ(μ-λ))
Example
The Vehicles arrive at a toll booth at an average rate of 300 per
hour. Average waiting time at the toll booth is 10s per vehicle.
If both arrivals and departures ( leavings) are exponentially
distributed, what is the average number of vehicles in the
system, average queue length, the average delay per vehicle, the
average time a vehicle is in the system?
125

soln
• λ = 300 veh/hr, μ=3600/h = 3600/10 =360veh/hr
• Utilization factor = traffic intensity = r=λ/μ=300/360=0.833
• The percent of time the toll booth will be idle
P (0) = P(X=0) =(0.833)0 (1-0.833)=0.139(60min) = 8.34 min.
• The average number of vehicles in the system
E[x]=r/(1-r) =4.98
• The average number of vehicles in the queue
E[Lq ]=r2/(1-r)= 4.01
• The average a vehicle spend in the system
E[T]=1/(μ-λ)= 0.016 hr = 0.96 min = 57.6 sec
• The average time a vehicle spends in the queue
E[Tq ]=λ/(μ(μ-λ))=0.013hr=0.83min=50sec

126
M/M/N model
• The difference between the earlier model and this model is
the number of servers. This is a multi -server model with N
number of servers whereas the earlier one was single server
model. The assumptions stated in M/M/1 model are also
assumed here.

Multi-server model

127

Cont..
• Here μ is the average service rate for N identical service
counters in parallel. For x=0

• The probability of x number of customers in the system is

given by P(x) for 1≤x≤N

For X > N

128
 Cont..
• The average number of customers in the system is

• The average queue length

• The expected time in the system.

• The expected time in the queue

129

Example
Consider the earlier problem as a multi-server problem with two
servers in parallel.
Soln
λ =300 veh/hr, μ=360 veh/hr , r=λ/μ=300/360=0.833

The average number of vehicles in the system:

The average number of vehicles in the queue

130
 Cont..
• The average time a vehicle spend in the system:

• The average time a vehicle spending in the queue

131

Multiple single servers model

• In this model there are N numbers of identical independent
parallel servers which receive customers from a same
source but in different parallel queues (Compare to
M/M/N model. It has only one queue) each one receiving
customers at a rate of λ/N

Multiple single servers

132
 Example
Consider the problem 1 as a multiple single server's model with two
servers which work independently with each one receiving half the
arrival rate that is 150 veh/hr
Soln
• Utilization factor = traffic intensity= r =λ/μ=150/360 = 0.416
• The percent of time the toll booth will be idle P(X=0)
• P (0) =(0.416)0 (1- 0.416) = 0.584(60min) = 35.04 min
• The average number of vehicles in the system = E[x]=r/(1-r) = 0.712
• The average number of vehicles in the queue=E[Lq ]=r2/(1-r)=0.296
• The average a vehicle spend in the system = E[T]=1/(μ-λ)=0.0047hr
= 0.285 min =17.14 sec and The average time a vehicle spends in the
queue = E[Tq ]=λ/(μ(μ-λ))=0.0022hr=0.13min=8.05sec
133

Comparison of the results obtained using three models

M/M/1 M/M/2 Multiple single
model model sever model
Idle time of toll
booths (minutes) 8.34 55.2 35.04
Number of vehicles
in the system (unit) 4.98 1.22 0.712
Number of vehicles
in the queue (unit) 4.01 0.387 0.296
Average waiting time
in system (seconds) 57.6 14 17.14
Average waiting time
in queue (seconds) 50 4.64 8.05
134
 Cont..
• From the Table by providing 2 servers the queue length
reduced from 4.01 to 0.387 and the average waiting time of
the vehicles came down from 50 sec to 4.64 sec, but at the
expense of having either one or both of the toll booths idle
92% of the time as compared to 13.9% of the time for the
single-server situation. Thus there exists a trade-off between
the customers' convenience and the cost of running the
system.

135

D/D/N model
• In this model the arrival and service rates are deterministic
that is the arrival and service times of each vehicle are
known. Assumptions
1. Customers are assumed to be patient.
2. System is assumed to have unlimited capacity.
3. Users arrive from an unlimited source.
4. The queue discipline is assumed to be first in first out.
Example
Morning peak traffic upstream of a toll booth is given in the
table below. The toll plaza consists of three booths, each of
which can handle an average of one vehicle every 8 seconds.
Determine the maximum queue, the longest delay to an
individual vehicle.
136
 Cont..
10 min soln
Time period Volume • Service rate is given as 8 seconds per
7.00 - 7.10 200 vehicle. This implies for 10 min, 75
7.10 - 7.20 400 vehicles can be served by each server.
7.20 - 7.30 500 • It is given there are 3 servers. Hence
7.30 - 7.40 250 225 vehicles can be served by 3 servers
in 10 min.
7.40 - 7.50 200
• In the first 10 min only 200 vehicles
7.50 - 8.00 150 arrive which are served so the service
rate for rest 50 min is 225 veh/10 min
as there is a queue for the rest period.

137

Cont..

• The maximum queue length for the study period is 475

vehicles. and the corresponding max delay is:
(475/3) * 8sec * (1min/60sec) = 21.11min
Therefore max delay is 21.11 min.

138
THANK YOU

139

Questions - ?

140