WG A2.

49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 1

CONDITION ASSESSMENT OF POWER

TRANSFORMERS AND ASSESSMENT INDICES

Presented by:
Brian Sparling
Tom Prevost
Ed teNyenhuis
Joe Watson

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 2

Who is CIGRE?
Counseil International des Grands Reseaux Electriques
International Council on Large Electric Systems
Established in 1921, based in Paris, France.

CIGRE is a global community committed to the collaborative development and

sharing of power system expertise.

At its heart are 59 countries with National Committees offering diverse technical
perspectives and expertise from every corner of the globe.

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee www.cigre.org 3

Cigre Study Committee Organization

A1 Rotating electrical C1 System development
B1 Insulated cables
machines and economics

B2 Overhead lines C2 System operation

and control

A2 Transformers B3 Substations C3 System environ-

mental performance
B4 HVDC and power
C4 System technical
electronics
performance
A3 High voltage
B5 Protection and
equipment C5 Electricity markets
automation
and regulations

C6 Distribution systems
and dispersed generation

D 1 Materials and emerging technologies

D 2 Information systems and telecommunication

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 4

Membership Representation of A2.49

Transformer Components & Utilities Test Equipment Oil Labs and
Manufacturers Insulating Consultants
Fluids
Canada Germany UK USA USA

India USA Canada Ireland Portugal

Austria Canada Scotland Norway

Japan India

Australia South Africa

Australia

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 5

Membership Representation of A2.49

IEEE Transformers Committee Members

Members

P. Cole, Convenor AU T.L. Macarthur, Secretary AU A. Sbravati US

C. Beauchemin CA L. Liden SE B. Sparling CA

C. Beckett AU M.A. Martins PT T.V. Sridhar IN

B.N. De Bhowmick IN T. McGrail US E. teNyenhuis CA

W. Fleischmann DE N. Moodley ZA U. Thieß DE

M. Foata DE A. Mudryk UA M. Vermeer NL

Y. Fuse JP B. Nemeth HU D. Walker GB

P. Jarman GB P. Picher CA J. Watson US

M. Krueger AT T. Prevost US R. Willoughby AU

S. Mohammad IN

Other Contributors

L. Maugain FR

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 6

WG A2.49 Mission
 Investigate information used to derive transformer health indices, its
consolidation, and the uses to which the output can be utilized
 Review of existing documents, Cigré, IEEE and IEC
 Determine if a common method can be developed for stating a
transformer condition assessment, for future comparisons &
benchmarking between operators
 Consider if weightings are appropriate, and
 How Indices could be used for condition based maintenance and other
asset management decisions

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 7

Technical Brochure
 The Technical Brochure is in 2 sections + Appendices

 Section 1
 Section 2
 Appendices

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 8

Section 1 & Appendices

 Fundamentals of transformer condition assessment and
transformer assessment indices (TAI)
 Refurbishment index
 Dealing with uncertainty in information
 The role of on-line monitoring systems
 Criticality and other considerations
 Estimating a probability of failure

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 9

Section 2 of the Technical Brochure

 Section 2 deals with the sub components of a transformer
 Failure modes and mechanisms
 Methods of diagnosing the failure modes and mechanisms
 This section is mostly existing knowledge from:
 IEC & IEEE
 ASTM
 CIGRE experts, and
 Industry experts

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 10

Section 2 of the Technical Brochure

 Tables of diagnostic information are formatted to allow
assessment using the methods described in the TB
 NOTE – the values in these tables, have been sourced
from published guides, of IEC, Cigré, ASTM and IEEE.
Users can use these values as a starting point, but should
consider if they are suitable for their:
 Fleet of transformers (consider design and construction),
 Operating conditions,
 Maintenance practices, and
 Time scales used in the scoring matrix (to be discussed)

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 11

What is a TAI?
Transformer Assessment Indices (TAI) are a useful tool
to:
 condense a large amount of technical data and result
analysis into a score:
 That easily conveys information about overall asset
conditions, taking into account the quality of the data
 To prioritize the selection of assets for further investigation
or investment.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 12

Developing a TAI
 Step 1: Determine the purpose of the
Transformer Assessment Score and Index
 Step 2: Identify the failure modes to be included
in the TAI
 Step 3: Determine how each failure mode will be
assessed

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 13

Developing a TAI
 Step 4: Design a calibrated system for categorising
failure modes (scoring matrix)
 Step 5: Calculate a TAI Score for each Transformer
 It should be noted that some users, particularly those
with smaller fleets, or those performing a detailed
assessment on a single transformer, may not want or
need an index to allow transformers to be ranked.

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 14

Determine the Purpose of the TAI

 Transformers that are in poor condition that cannot be
easily repaired
 Consider for replacement
 It is possible to design an Index to identify these
transformers

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 15

Determine the Purpose of the TAI

 Transformers that are in poor condition that can be
easily repaired, on-site.
 Consider for repair or refurbishment off-site
 To identify different categories of transformers –
different indices are required
 replacement and repair indices are different.
 Try to Ensure all users understand the purpose of the
index so that it is not incorrectly used!!!

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 16

Identify the failure modes or

mechanisms to be included in the TAI
 If you are developing a Replacement Index
 What are the business/technical drivers for
replacement in your organisation?
 If a Winding Temperature Indicator Failed on your
transformer – would you replace the transformer or replace
the WTI?
 Do not include failure modes or mechanism in the
Replacement Index if they are not drivers for
replacement
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 17

Identify the failure modes or

mechanisms to be included in the TAI
 For Repair or Refurbishment Index – consider
business/technical drivers for repair or refurbishment
 Similarly for other indices
 Deciding what to exclude is not always easy!
 Should bushings and tap changers be included in a
Replacement Index?
 Can often be replaced
 May not be economical if bushings, OLTC and other work is
required.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

Related Cigré Documents

• TB 227, Life Management
Techniques for Power Transformers
• TB 248, Guide on Economics of
Transformer Management
• TB 420, Generic Guidelines for Life
Time Condition Assessment of HV
Assets and Related Knowledge
• TB 426, Guide for Decision Process
of Equipment Replacement
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

Other Related Documents

Testing, inspection, diagnosis and subsequent maintenance best

practices
 IEEE C57.152-2013 IEEE Guide for Diagnostic Field Testing of
Fluid-Filled Power, Transformers, Regulators, and Reactors
 IEEE C57.140-2017 Guide for the Evaluation and Reconditioning
of Liquid Immersed Power Transformers
 Also documents from IEC, EPRI and Bureau of Reclamation

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 21

Determine how each failure mode

will be assessed
 Some failure modes and mechanisms can be assessed in
multiple ways.
 e.g. Partial Discharge – may be detected using DGA test results,
or Partial discharge tests
 E.g. Degradation of cellulose – may be assessed by furan
analysis, or maybe estimated from loading history and age
 Where failure mechanisms can be assessed in multiple ways
– this increases confidence in the assessment
 Do not double count failure mechanism – this is effectively
weighting the score
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 22

Design a calibrated system for

categorizing failure modes
 Scoring of failure modes / mechanisms should ideally
be consistent
 Ideally use a scoring matrix
 Scoring matrix can have any number of levels
 Should include a clear description for each level
 Scoring matrix should generally include a time scale
 e.g. high likelihood of failure in the next 2 years

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 23

Scoring Matrix - Example

F De-energize as soon as possible. Don’t return to service until problem is repaired.
Component at end of life

E Very Poor condition – high likelihood of failure. Component is near end of life. Repair or
replacement as soon as possible is recommended. De-rating or restricted operation of
transformer may be appropriate, and operation under extreme conditions may not be
appropriate until replacement is possible

D Poor Condition. Repair or replacement should be considered within the short term. Reliable
operation may be impaired or compromised. Performance or component may be causing
deleterious effects. Consider review of rating and operating condition.

C Acceptable condition with significant signs of aging or deterioration. Reliable operation

expected for medium term – but consider condition based maintenance if applicable

B Good condition. Some signs of aging or deterioration are evident. Reliable operation
expected for a long period.

A Minimal Signs of ageing or deterioration. As new condition

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 24

Bushing Scoring Matrix Example

Affected
Failure Mode Bushing type Parameter/ Criteria Unit F E D C B A Reference
Investigative Test
oil level not IEEE
Oil leakage OIP Visual inspection Correct Oil level % 10% full 20% full 30% full 50% full
visible C57.152
Colour of oil in sight Clear &
Colour change of oil Black/ Dark Dark and/ or Light Brown/ Yellow/ Dark IEC 60422,
glass (by Visual OIP Visual inspection Light Yellow without visible
in sight glass Black turbid * Brown Yellow Table-5
Inspection) contamination
Colour of oil in sight Colour change of oil Dark Brown Amber (4.0 to Bright yellow Yellow (1.0- Pale Yellow Clear (0.0 to IEEE
OIP Visual inspection
glass (by lab test) in sight glass (5.5 to 8.5) 5.5) (2.5 to 4.0) 2.5) (0.5-1.0) 0.5) C57.152
Hydrogen (H2) ul gas / l oil >140 ≤140 IEC 61464
Methane (CH4) ul gas / l oil >40 ≤40 IEC 61464
Ethylene (C2H4) ul gas / l oil >30 ≤30 IEC 61464
Ethane (C2H6) ul gas / l oil >70 ≤70 IEC 61464
DGA Oil OIP DGA in Bushing Oil Acetylene (C2H2) ul gas / l oil >2 ≤2 IEC 61464
Carbon monoxide
ul gas / l oil >1000 ≤1000 IEC 61464
(CO)
Carbon dioxide
ul gas / l oil >3400 ≤3400 IEC 61464
(CO2)
Temperature
Overheating in IEEE
OIP/RIP/RIS/RBP Thermal scanning increase above ˚C >40 31 - 40 21 - 30 11 - 20 1 - 10
bushing top C57.152
ambient
pD activities in
H2/CH4 (PD) >13 ≤13 IEC 61464
condenser core
Overheating in the C2H4/C2H6
>1 ≤1 IEC 61464
condenser core (Thermal fault)
OIP DGA Ratio
pD activities in
C2H2/C2/H4 (PD) >1 ≤1 IEC 61464
condenser core
Overheating in the CO2/CO (Thermal
>20 or <1 1 – 20 IEC 61464
condenser core fault in paper)

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 25

Bushing Scoring Matrix Example

Affected
Failure Mode Bushing type Parameter/ Criteria Unit F E D C B A Reference
Investigative Test
IEEE
Initial test
DF/PF/Dielectric Initial value C57.152,
OIP/RIP/RIS tan delta increase % Initial value *3 Initial value *2 (rating plate
frequency response *1.5 CIGRE
value)
TB445
Contamination/layer Initial test
DF/PF/Dielectric CIGRE TB
shorting/excessive RBP tan delta increase % >0.6 0 - 0.6 (rating plate
frequency response 445
moisture value)
IEEE
Initial test
Change of C57.152,
OIP/RIP/RIS C1 measurement % >10 5.1 - 10 2.1 – 5 0–2 (rating plate
Capacitance (C1) CIGRE
value)
TB445
Damaged sheds on
OIP/RIP/RIS/RBP Visual inspection Defined by supplier major minor No damage
insulator
pD activities in
OIP/RIP/RIS/RBP pD measurement Trends >5 ≤5
condenser core
Corrosion due to
Visual inspection
poor installation of OIP/RIP/RIS/RBP Burning marks many few clean
voltage tap
test tap cover

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 26

Condition Assessment Classification

Condition Assessment Description
Classification
Regular Visual Inspection Identifies by your eyes, defects such as leaks etc. Unit can be
energized or de-energized
Routine de-energized Inspection & testing with normal test sets when the unit is out of
service
Routine on-line With unit in service e.g. testing (DGA), infrared scans etc.
Continuous on-line Data available from installed IED’s such as DGA or bushing or OLTC
monitors
Advanced Deeper inspection & analysis such as FRA, DFR, unit out of service
Internal Inspections With oil level lowered to expose the upper areas of the active part and
lower portions of bushings & connections.
Inductive Reasoning Domain, or tribal knowledge of certain makes of components and/or
vintages units produced with issues, that time has revealed.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 27

Calculate a TAI Score for each

Transformer
 Assess selected failure mechanisms using:
 the assessment methods previously determined,
 test results and other diagnostic data
 Use the scoring matrix to allocate consistent scores for
each failure mechanism
 E.g. A – E, Green to Red etc
 Refer to Technical Brochure, IEC, IEEE etc for guidance

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 28

Scoring Systems
 Simple Worst Case Score
 e.g. using a 4 failure mode model with a conditions found in
Red, Pink, Orange and Green categories.
10 4 2 1 0
Red Pink Orange Yellow Green
FM1 FM4 FM3 FM2

 The worst evaluated failure mode condition was in the Red

range
 Score for this Transformer is now Red
 Urgency associated with this transformer is now obvious

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 29

Scoring Systems
 Hybrid Score (Summation + Worst Case)
 e.g. using the same 4 failure mode FM1 – FM4 with conditions in
the Red, Pink, Orange and Green categories:
10 4 2 1 0
Red Pink Orange Yellow Green
FM1 FM4 FM3 FM2

 The score for this Transformer is now

(1x10)+(1X4)+(1X2)+(1X0)= 16 Red
 16 gives an indication of overall weighted condition but Red indicates
urgency associated with this transformer

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 30

Scoring Systems
 Count by Category
 Using the same 4 failure modes FM1 – FM4
10 4 2 1 0
Red Pink Orange Yellow Green
FM1 FM4 FM3 FM2

 The score for this Transformer is now

 1 Red, 1 Pink, 1 Orange, 0 Yellow, 1 Green or 1,1,1,0,1
 1 Red indicates urgency associated with this transformer and
information about other failure modes included
 Can be sorted – but more difficult than sorting a single number
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 31

Refurbishment Index
 Asset Managers will sometimes decide to perform
maintenance or repair work on a transformer that is not
immediately necessary to:
 hopefully extend the life of the transformer
 eliminate the need to perform this work in the future
 A Refurbishment Index can be created to identify
candidates with failure modes than can corrected
during refurbishment
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 32

Refurbishment Index
 Some failure modes cannot be easily repaired and may
limit the life of the refurbished transformer
 Refurbishment may therefore be uneconomical
 Filters can be applied to failures modes that cannot be
repaired easily and will limit the life of the refurbished
transformer.
 The filters can be used to exclude from the ranking list,
transformers that score Pink or Red for these chosen failure
mode.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

Guides for Refurbishment or

Replacement of assets
• TB 227, Life Management Techniques for Power
Transformers
• TB 248, Guide on Economics of Transformer
Management
• TB 445, Guide for Transformer Maintenance
• IEEE C57.140-2017 Guide for the Evaluation and
Reconditioning of Liquid Immersed Power
Transformers
• IEC 60422 Mineral insulating oils in electrical
equipment - Supervision and maintenance guidance
• Other IEC, EPRI Bureau of Reclamation Documents

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 34

Examples – Consolidated
Subcomponent Scores
Mineral Oil

Failure / Criteria / Sub-

Diagnostic Replacement Refurbishment Sub-
Degradation Condition Repair Index Transformer 1 Component
Method Index Index Component
Mechanism Indicator Score

Corrosive
Corrosive Sulphur Test of Oil Sample No Yes Filter Green Green
Sulphur

BDV Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Orange

Tan Delta Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Pink
Resistivity Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Orange

Acidity Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Red

Degradation

IFT Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Orange Mineral Oil Red
Colour (by Visual
Orange
Inspection)

Inhibitor Test of Oil Sample No Yes Yes Pink

Sediment and
Orange
Sludge

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 35

Developing Transformer Scores

from Subcomponent Scores
Main Tank - OLTC Cooling
Sub- Main Tank - Bushings OLTC Ancillary Corrosive Mineral
Non Insulating System Tx Tank
Component Repairable Comp. Sulphur Oil
Repairable Fluid

TX 1 Score Pink Pink Orange Orange Pink Pink Pink Green Green Red

TX 2 Score Green Green Red Green Yellow Yellow Orange Yellow Green Orange

TX 3 Score Red Orange Red Yellow Yellow Pink Pink Orange Green Red

TX 4 Score Yellow Orange Green Yellow Green Yellow Orange Green Red Yellow

TX 5 Score Red Red Orange Orange Red Pink Pink Orange Green Red

TX 6 Score Yellow Yellow Green Green Yellow Yellow Yellow Green Green Yellow

TX 7 Score Yellow Green Green Green Yellow Yellow Yellow Green Green Green

TX 8 Score Pink Red Red Orange Pink Pink Pink Yellow Red Pink

TX 9 Score Yellow Yellow Green Green Green Yellow Yellow Green Green Orange

TX 10 Score Red Orange Orange Yellow Orange Red Red Red Green Orange

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 36

Examples of Various Indices

Main Tank - Simple Non

Orange
Yellow
Green
Bushings OLTC Simple Hybrid

Pink
Red
Non Numeric Linear
Score Score
Repairable Score Score

TX 1
Pink Orange Orange 1 Pink 0 1 2 0 0 7 7 (Pink) 45
Score
TX 2
Green Red Green 1 Red 1 0 0 0 2 4 4 (Red) 83
Score
TX 3
Orange Red Yellow 1 Red 1 0 1 1 0 7 7 (Red) 93
Score
TX 4
Orange Green Yellow 1 Orange 0 0 1 1 1 3 3 (Orange) 13
Score
TX 5
Red Orange Orange 1 Red 1 0 2 0 0 8 8 (Red) 99
Score
TX 6
Yellow Green Green 1 Yellow 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 (Yellow) 5
Score
TX 7
Green Green Green 3 Green 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 (Green) 3
Score
TX 8
Red Red Orange 2 Red 2 0 1 0 0 10 10 (Red) 171
Score
TX 9
Yellow Green Green 1 Yellow 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 (Yellow) 5
Score
TX 10
Orange Orange Yellow 2 Orange 0 0 2 1 0 5 5 (Orange) 21
Score

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 37

Example – Refurbishment Index

OLTC Cooling
Main Tank - Corrosive Main Tank - Bushings OLTC Ancillary Mineral Oil
Sub-Component Insulating System Tx Tank
Non Repairable Sulphur Repairable Comp.
Fluid

Pink Green TX 1 Score

Green Green TX 2 Score Green Red Green Yellow Yellow Orange Yellow Orange

Orange Green TX 3 Score Red Red Yellow Yellow Pink Pink Orange Red

Orange Red TX 4 Score

Red Green TX 5 Score

Yellow Green TX 6 Score Yellow Green Green Yellow Yellow Yellow Green Yellow

Green Green TX 7 Score Yellow Green Green Yellow Yellow Yellow Green Green

Red Red TX 8 Score

Yellow Green TX 9 Score Yellow Green Green Green Yellow Yellow Green Orange

Orange Green TX 10 Score Red Orange Yellow Orange Red Red Red Orange

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

On-Line Monitors ADD Timely data …

Sensors on bushing tapping point
- PD & Tan ∆

Air humidity & ambient temp

Top & bottom oil temperature

3 phase load current

DGA & Moisture monitor
Neutral current partial discharges

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 39

On-Line Monitors
 When on-line monitors are available on some or all
transformers – the data from the monitors can be
included in an TAI
 Data from other sources can also be included in the same
TAI
 Assessments can be updated easily with updated data from
on-line monitors
 Transformers with on-line monitors can all provide data for a
TAI on the same day 
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 40

On-Line Monitors
 A TAI could be created using only information from
on-line monitors
 Some failure mechanisms cannot be assessed by
on-line data and will not be included in the TAI
 It is essential that users understand the
limitations of the TAI!

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 41

Criticality and other Considerations

 The consequence of a transformer failure will often
need to be considered in conjunction with the condition
assessment before determining the appropriate action:
 Personnel safety
 Affected customers and load
 Duration of the interruption
 Component failure or transformer failure
 Consequential damage to other equipment
 Environmental damage.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 42

Dealing with Uncertainty

 The level of uncertainty is influenced by the data
quality used in the assessment
 Missing data/Errors/Timeliness
 A TAI score or rating should also include a
Quality or Confidence score

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 43

Dealing with Uncertainty

 Missing data – additional tests/estimates or ranges/
statistical methods
 Incorrect data – data validation
 Compare data to known data set / outliers
 Timeliness – 10 year old test vs. on-line monitor

Need for expert opinion

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 44

Estimating a Probability of Failure

 Probability of Failure (PoF) cannot be calculated directly from
a TAI or transformer assessment, but it can be estimated.
 Best for fleets with ample historical data
 2 methods described in the Technical Brochure
 Method 1
 Estimate or assume Relative PoF (RPoF) for each score or
condition category
 Calculate the total expected fleet failures for each transformer
type based on RPoF
 Compare the results to historical fleet data and scale accordingly
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 45

Estimating a Probability of Failure

 Review PoF performance at end of year and adjust
category failure rate assumptions to improve accuracy
over time
Category 1st Year PoF Actual Failures 2nd Year PoF
Red 30% 15% 20%
Pink 22% 12% 16%
Orange 10% 5% 8%
Yellow 2% 0% 1%
Green 0.25% 1% 0.5%

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 46

Estimating a Probability of Failure

 Method 2
 Use statistical techniques to create a PoF vs Age curve
using:
 Data from in-service failures
 Condition based preventative retirements
 But - The condition of each transformer from a subset of
transformers of a similar age, would generally be different.
 It is assumed that transformers in poorer condition would have a
higher PoF than those in a better condition.

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 47

Estimating a Probability of Failure

 Use the results of transformer condition assessments or
a TAI to:
 Assign a higher “apparent age” to transformers in worse
than average condition
 Assign a lower “apparent age” to transformers in better than
average condition
 Compare Apparent Age to PoF using the statistically
derived PoF vs Age curve
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018
 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

Documents related to Probability of

Failure
• TB 248, Guide on Economics of
Transformer Management
• TB 420, Generic Guidelines for Life
Time Condition Assessment of HV
• TB 642, Transformer Reliability Survey
• IEEE C57.140-2017 Guide for the
Evaluation and Reconditioning of
Liquid Immersed Power Transformers

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 49

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee © Copyright CIGRE 19 October 2018 50

Comparison A2.49 to IEEE Documents

A2.49 Applicable IEEE & Cigre Guides
Executive Summary NONE
Chapter 1: Introduction - Fundamentals of Transformer Condition Assessment C57.140-2017
Chapter 2: Transformer Assessment Indices NONE
Chapter 3: Refurbishment Index Cigre TB 445 & C57.140-2017
Chapter 4: Dealing with Uncertainty in Information NONE
Chapter 5: The Role of On-Line Monitoring Systems Cigre TB 630, C57.140-2017 & C57.143-2012 in Revision
Chapter 6: Criticality and Other Considerations NONE
Chapter 7: Estimating a Probability of Failure C57.140-2017
Chapter 8: Transformer Active Part Cigre TB 445, C57.152 & C57.140
Chapter 9: Bushings & Cable Boxes Cigre TB 445, C57.152 & C57.140
Chapter 10: OLTC (LTC) & DETC Cigre TB 445, C57.152 & C57.140
Chapter 11: Cooling System, Transformer Tank, & Ancillary Components Cigre TB 445, C57.152 & C57.140
Chapter 12 : Insulating Fluids Cigre TB 445, C57.152 & C57.140
Annex A:Transformer Condition Assessment Tables NONE
Annex B: How to Develop a TAI, with Examples NONE
Annex C: Literature Review NONE
Annex D: Additional Information for Insulating Fluids C57.152 & C57.140
Annex E: Bibliography Many sources

Nothing found in IEEE Guides

Most information available in IEEE, with new material contributed in A2_29

Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018

 WG A2.49 Tutorial for IEEE TX Committee

IEEE TF for Condition Assessment

Best practices are covered in different IEEE Guides, EXCEPT guidance

on data quality, timeliness, and suggestions on how to build a
methodology to develop a ‘score’, to identify “candidates” for
replacement, and/or major repair, and urgency for same.
 Meeting on Tuesday Oct. 16th reviewed options ….
 IEEE C57.140-2017 Guide for the Evaluation and Reconditioning
of Liquid Immersed Power Transformers, is an existing Guide that
lends itself to have the ‘gaps’ identified, included in a new
revision.
Jacksonville, FL September 14, 2018