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TF Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory

The document is a Jupyter notebook that demonstrates time series forecasting using TensorFlow and Keras. It generates synthetic time series data with trend, seasonality and noise components. It uses windowed datasets and RNN models to perform multi-step ahead forecasting on the time series. It experiments with different hyperparameters like learning rate schedules and window sizes to improve the forecasting accuracy.

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Fahim Sa
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78 views5 pages

TF Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory

The document is a Jupyter notebook that demonstrates time series forecasting using TensorFlow and Keras. It generates synthetic time series data with trend, seasonality and noise components. It uses windowed datasets and RNN models to perform multi-step ahead forecasting on the time series. It experiments with different hyperparameters like learning rate schedules and window sizes to improve the forecasting accuracy.

Uploaded by

Fahim Sa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

7/16/2020 S+P Week 2 Lesson 3.

ipynb - Colaboratory

#@title Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "LicenseLicensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at (the "License");
#
# https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or imp
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.

Open in Colab

try:
# %tensorflow_version only exists in Colab.
%tensorflow_version 2.x
except Exception:
pass

import tensorflow as tf
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
print(tf.__version__)

def plot_series(time, series, format="-", start=0, end=None):


plt.plot(time[start:end], series[start:end], format)
plt.xlabel("Time")
plt.ylabel("Value")
plt.grid(True)

def trend(time, slope=0):


https://colab.research.google.com/github/lmoroney/dlaicourse/blob/master/TensorFlow In Practice/Course 4 - S%2BP/S%2BP Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb#printMode=true 1/6
7/16/2020 S+P Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory
return slope * time

def seasonal_pattern(season_time):
"""Just an arbitrary pattern, you can change it if you wish"""
return np.where(season_time < 0.4,
np.cos(season_time * 2 * np.pi),
1 / np.exp(3 * season_time))

def seasonality(time, period, amplitude=1, phase=0):


"""Repeats the same pattern at each period"""
season_time = ((time + phase) % period) / period
return amplitude * seasonal_pattern(season_time)

def noise(time, noise_level=1, seed=None):


rnd = np.random.RandomState(seed)
return rnd.randn(len(time)) * noise_level

time = np.arange(4 * 365 + 1, dtype="float32")


baseline = 10
series = trend(time, 0.1)
baseline = 10
amplitude = 20
slope = 0.09
noise_level = 5

# Create the series


series = baseline + trend(time, slope) + seasonality(time, period=365, amplitude=amplitude)
# Update with noise
series += noise(time, noise_level, seed=42)

split_time = 1000
time_train = time[:split_time]
x_train = series[:split_time]
time_valid = time[split_time:]
x_valid = series[split_time:]

window_size = 20
batch_size = 32
https://colab.research.google.com/github/lmoroney/dlaicourse/blob/master/TensorFlow In Practice/Course 4 - S%2BP/S%2BP Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb#printMode=true 2/6
7/16/2020 S+P Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory

shuffle_buffer_size = 1000

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time_valid, x_valid)

def windowed_dataset(series, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer):


dataset = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(series)
dataset = dataset.window(window_size + 1, shift=1, drop_remainder=True)
dataset = dataset.flat_map(lambda window: window.batch(window_size + 1))
dataset = dataset.shuffle(shuffle_buffer).map(lambda window: (window[:-1], window[-1]))
dataset = dataset.batch(batch_size).prefetch(1)
return dataset

dataset = windowed_dataset(x_train, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer_size)

model = tf.keras.models.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, input_shape=[window_size], activation="relu"),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu"),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1)
])

model.compile(loss="mse", optimizer=tf.keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=1e-6, momentum=0.9))


model.fit(dataset,epochs=100,verbose=0)

forecast = []
for time in range(len(series) - window_size):
forecast.append(model.predict(series[time:time + window_size][np.newaxis]))

forecast = forecast[split_time-window_size:]
results = np.array(forecast)[:, 0, 0]

https://colab.research.google.com/github/lmoroney/dlaicourse/blob/master/TensorFlow In Practice/Course 4 - S%2BP/S%2BP Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb#printMode=true 3/6


7/16/2020 S+P Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))

plot_series(time_valid, x_valid)
plot_series(time_valid, results)

tf.keras.metrics.mean_absolute_error(x_valid, results).numpy()

dataset = windowed_dataset(x_train, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer_size)

model = tf.keras.models.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, input_shape=[window_size], activation="relu"),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu"),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1)
])

lr_schedule = tf.keras.callbacks.LearningRateScheduler(
lambda epoch: 1e-8 * 10**(epoch / 20))
optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=1e-8, momentum=0.9)
model.compile(loss="mse", optimizer=optimizer)
history = model.fit(dataset, epochs=100, callbacks=[lr_schedule], verbose=0)

lrs = 1e-8 * (10 ** (np.arange(100) / 20))


plt.semilogx(lrs, history.history["loss"])
plt.axis([1e-8, 1e-3, 0, 300])

window_size = 30
dataset = windowed_dataset(x_train, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer_size)

model = tf.keras.models.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu", input_shape=[window_size]),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu"),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1)
])

https://colab.research.google.com/github/lmoroney/dlaicourse/blob/master/TensorFlow In Practice/Course 4 - S%2BP/S%2BP Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb#printMode=true 4/6


7/16/2020 S+P Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb - Colaboratory

optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=8e-6, momentum=0.9)


model.compile(loss="mse", optimizer=optimizer)
history = model.fit(dataset, epochs=500, verbose=0)

loss = history.history['loss']
epochs = range(len(loss))
plt.plot(epochs, loss, 'b', label='Training Loss')
plt.show()

# Plot all but the first 10


loss = history.history['loss']
epochs = range(10, len(loss))
plot_loss = loss[10:]
print(plot_loss)
plt.plot(epochs, plot_loss, 'b', label='Training Loss')
plt.show()

forecast = []
for time in range(len(series) - window_size):
forecast.append(model.predict(series[time:time + window_size][np.newaxis]))

forecast = forecast[split_time-window_size:]
results = np.array(forecast)[:, 0, 0]

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))

plot_series(time_valid, x_valid)
plot_series(time_valid, results)

tf.keras.metrics.mean_absolute_error(x_valid, results).numpy()

https://colab.research.google.com/github/lmoroney/dlaicourse/blob/master/TensorFlow In Practice/Course 4 - S%2BP/S%2BP Week 2 Lesson 3.ipynb#printMode=true 5/6

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