Month Demand moving average
Janaury 320 404
February 410 427
March 480 447
April 390 454
May 470 427
June 500 414
July 310 370
August 430 430 Chart Title
September 370 600 412 D
October 490 427 600
November 375 500 395
500
December 415 415
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100 0
Fe ry
ry
ay
ch
ril
u
ua
Ap
M
ar
na
M
br
Ja
0
Janaury February March April May June July August Septembe
Demand
Chart Title
Demand
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Fe ry
ry
ay
ly
ch
No ber
De ber
ne
Oc r
r
ril
be
be
Se gus
Ju
u
ua
Ap
M
ar
Ju
na
to
m
em
m
M
Au
br
ve
ce
Ja
pt
June July August September October NovemberDecember
Demand
Month Demand 3 month weighted average
Janaury 320 430
February 410 424
March 480 445
April 390 472
May 470 400
June 500 402
July 310 380
August 430 440
September 370 413
October 490 415
November 375 415
December 415 415
Weight Applied
1 600
2
3 500
Total weighted 6
400
300
200
100
0
Janaury Februa
Demand
600
500
400
300
200
100
Chart Title
0
600
ry ry ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
nau rua ar Ap M Ju ugu m to m m
a eb M A e c ve ce
J F pt O
Se No De
500
400
300
200
100
0
Janaury February March April May June July August September October November D
Demand
r r
be be
em m
ce
De
mber October November December
Month Actual Forecasting with ꭤ=.7
January 320 350
February 410 329
March 480 386
April 390 452
May 470 409
June 500 452
July 310 486
August 430 363
September 370 410 C
October 490 382 600
November 375 458
December 415 400 500
400
300
200
100
0
January February March April May Ju
Chart Title
March April May June July August September October November December
Actual
Month Actual Smoothed Forecast Smoothed Trend Forecast Including Trend
January 320 350 10 360
February 410 336 3 339
March 480 382 16 398
April 390 447 31 478
May 470 425 15 440
June 500 458 21 479
July 310 492 25 517
August 430 393 -13 380
September 370 410 -4 406
October 490 385 -11 374
November 375 444 11 455
December 415 407 -4 403
smoothing constant for the average(ꭤ) 0.6
smoothing constant for the trend(ẞ) 0.3
Exponential Smoothing with trend
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
ry ar
y ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r
be
r
be
r
be
r
ua ru ar Ap M Ju gu to m m
a n b M A u em c ve ce
J e pt O
F
Se No De
Actual Forecast Including Trend
Month Time(X) Actual(Y) X^2 XY
January 1 320 1 320
February 2 410 4 820
March 3 480 9 1440
April 4 390 16 1560
May 5 470 25 2350
June 6 500 36 3000
July 7 310 49 2170
August 8 430 64 3440
September 9 370 81 3330 Cha
October 10 490 100 4900 600
November 11 375 121 4125
December 12 415 144 4980 500
n=12 78 4960 650 32435
400
6.5 413.3333
300
b=
200 a=
100
y=404.46+1.3636X
0
1 2 3 4 5
Time(X) Act
Chart Title
1.363636
404.4697
y=404.46+1.3636X
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time(X) Actual(Y) Linear (Actual(Y))
Month Actual
January 320
February 410
March 480
April 390
May 470
June 500
July 310
August 430
September 370 Actual
October 490 600
November 375
December 415 500
400
300
200
100
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Actual
6 8 10 12 14
