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Trend Analysis Using Semi-Average Method

The document contains 3 examples demonstrating the use of the semi-average method to analyze trends in time series data and predict future values. The first example fits a trend line to sales data from 1997-2002 and predicts sales for 2005. The second fits a trend line to production data from 2003-2009 and predicts production for 2010. The third computes 3-year moving averages of price data from 1998-2005.

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Nafisa Naushin
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112 views1 page

Trend Analysis Using Semi-Average Method

The document contains 3 examples demonstrating the use of the semi-average method to analyze trends in time series data and predict future values. The first example fits a trend line to sales data from 1997-2002 and predicts sales for 2005. The second fits a trend line to production data from 2003-2009 and predicts production for 2010. The third computes 3-year moving averages of price data from 1998-2005.

Uploaded by

Nafisa Naushin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

 S@ME E-learning Program  Project Management

S@ME

1. Fit a trend line using Semi-Average method form the following data & find sales for 2005 :
Year: 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sales Tk. (Lac) 20 24 22 30 28 32

Solution:
Year(X) Sales(lac) Semi Total Semi Average
1997 20
1998 24 20+24+22=66 66÷3=22
1999 22
2000 30
2001 28 30+28+32=90 90÷3=30
2002 32

Sals for 2005 from graph 41 thousand Units(app)

2. Compute the trend value and comment about the trends using semi-average method & predict 2010 production:
Year : 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Production(ton) 40 44 42 48 51 50 54

Year(X) Production(ton) Semi Total Semi Average


2003 40
2004 44 40+44+42=126 126÷3=42
2005 42
2006 48
2007 51
2008 50 51+50+54=155 155÷3=51.67
2009 54

Production of 2010 from graph: 56 ton(app).

3. From the following data compute the 3 years moving trends:


Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Price 260 255 266 262 251 254 270 268

Solution:

Year(X) Price 3 Yearly Moving Total 3 Yearly Moving Average


1998 260
1999 255 781 260
2000 266 783 261
2001 262 779 260
2002 251 767 256
2003 254 775 258
2004 270 792 264
2005 268

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