JOURNAL OF
BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT
Vol. 4, No.9, 2015: 1008-1020
ANALYSIS ON ELECTRONIC MONEY TRANSACTIONS ON VELOCITY OF
MONEY IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES
Venna Tri Kartika and Anggoro Budi Nugroho
School of Business and Management
Institute Technology Bandung, Indonesia
[email protected]Abstract. The purpose of this study is to analyze the electronic money transactions on velocity of money in ASEAN-5
countries from 2010 to 2014. For the electronic money, the data used is the volume of transactions. For the gross
domestic product and money supply (M1), the data used are currency from each country that has been converted into
US dollars. This study uses panel data model, classical assumption test (heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity test),
and goodness of fit test (coefficient determination, f test, and t test) to analyze the relationship between electronic
money transactions with gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money. The results of this study
indicate that the volumes of electronic money transactions are increasing in ASEAN-5 countries, while the velocity of
money are decreasing. The gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money have positive and
significant relationships to electronic money transactions for 0.34%, 0.10%, and 0.49% in ASEAN-5 countries. On
coefficient of determination test (R2), it shows that 98.41% of dependent variable (electronic money transactions) can
be explained by independent variables (gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money). Since
there is a positive trend in electronic money transactions, the rapid development of non-cash instruments, and a
significant relationship between electronic money transactions to GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money in
all ASEAN-5 countries, including Indonesia, the society should relatively be ready to get into a cashless society.
Keywords: electronic money, GDP, M1, velocity of money, panel data model
Introduction
In 2003, ASEAN leaders have decided to form an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020 in order to
transform ASEAN into a stable, prosperous, and highly competitive region with equitable economic
development, and reduced poverty and socio-economic disparities. The target date for the AEC was
subsequently brought forward by 2015 due to the ASEAN perceived loss of competitiveness to India and
China. The formation of AEC has brought ASEAN countries into a serious concern on economic and financial
integration. As the AEC commences, ASEAN member countries are having a greater need for an integrated
payment system. Under the system, individual user across ASEAN is able to make financial payments
through ATMs, credit cards, or electronic money without spending a significant amount of time or money
doing so. It also require the development of a seamless payment system within the region, but one of the
most challenging tasks will be promoting the use of more non-cash payment methods (cashless
transactions), which continues to serve a popular means of payment (WC-PSS, 2011). Cashless transactions
include payment transactions made with checks, direct credit transfers, direct debits, payments with debit
cards and credit cards, and also, payments with e-money and prepaid and stored-value cards. The growth of
electronic money in ASEAN countries was very fast and significant. An increase of the use of electronic
money means led to an increase in the demand for money. Irving Fisher (1911) stated velocity of money is a
concept that is used to calculate the amount of money supply (M) which is
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linked to the price level (P) and aggregate output (Y). Velocity of money (V) can be interpreted as the
average number of times per year (turnover) of one unit of currency used to purchase a total of goods and
services produced in the economy. Simply that the velocity indicates how many times the money rotates in a
given period. Irving Fisher (2008) reasoned that if people use electronic money, the less money it takes to
make a purchase, the less money needed to perform transactions generated by the nominal income will rise
as a result of velocity. But the opposite effect if the purchase of more use cash or a check, the more money
that is used to make transactions generated by the same amount of nominal income, and velocity of money
will go down. According to the problems above, the author is going to do further analysis about electronic
money transactions on velocity of money in ASEAN-5 countries with the title: “Analysis of Electronic Money
Transactions on Velocity of Money in ASEAN-5 countries”.
Theoretical Framework
Theoretically, the effects of gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money on the
electronic money transactions in this study are:
1. The increase in GDP indicates the rising incomes in society and an increase in public revenues
resulted in increased personal income.
2. Increased public income curiosity attracting communities to understand financial products, for
example: credit card, visa, and e-money.
3. The central bank as an institution that takes monetary policy, responding to fulfill the community
needs of an up to date financial products. This response in the form of provision of financial product called
e-money (electronic money).
4. Electronic money can be used for transactions where the trader does not have to carry cash. Only
use the card chip and can be directly used. The more people who use these financial products would result
in reduced circulation of cash (currency) in the community.
5. Decrease in currency (cash) and rising incomes are seen through the increase in GDP will cause the
higher velocity of money. Because the velocity value obtained from the GDP divided by the money supply,
which in this study using the M1.
The frameworks are:
Figure 2.1 .Theoretical Framework
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Methodology
A. Research Design
The methodology that is applied by the author in this research is shown in the following diagram below.
B. Data Panel Model
In this research, the author uses data panel model. Data panel is a combination between cross-section
and time-series data. There are several approaches that the author uses regression model based on
panel data model that consists of time-series and cross-section data. The several methods as followed:
Random Effect
Random Effect is a method to use in some situations where the intercept of an individual is a random
and large number of populations. The difference between the cross-section and time-series in random
effect model is shown by an error. This model considers that the error might be related throughout the
cross-section and time-series.
Fixed Effect
Fixed Effect is a model used in some situation when the individual specific intercept may be correlated
with one or more independent variable. The existence of variables which are not included to the
equations enable the existence of intercept inconsistent, which the intercept is possibly vary for the
cross-section and time-series. There are three methods that the author needs to choose; moreover
Hausman Test is a method to determine appropriate approach between random effect and fixed effect
to analyze the regression model. If the value of Chi Square statistics is more than Chi Square table,
reject H0 and accept H1. If the value of Chi Square statistics is less than Chi Square table, accept H0 and
reject H1. Also, if the p-value exceeds α, then accept H0 and use Random Effect Model. If the p-value is
less than α, then reject H0 and use Fixed Effect Model.
Data Analysis
A. The Trend of Electronic Money Transactions in ASEAN-5
Countries Indonesia
In 2010, the volume of e-money transactions in Indonesia has reached to 26 million transactions and
increasing to 203 million transactions in 2014.
EMO NEY_IND O NESIA
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bank Indonesia Statistics
Figure 4.1 E-money in Indonesia
According to figure 4.1, it seen that e-money transactions in Indonesia are increasing from 2010 to 2014.
The most increasing number of e-money transactions is occurred from 2011 to 2012 that reached by
145%. While the other increases are only 55% by 2011, 37% by 2013, and 47% by 2014. The increases
caused by the awareness of the society and the government encourages in using electronic money.
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Malaysia
In 2010, the volume of e-money transactions in Malaysia has reached to 699 million transactions and
increasing to 1.1 billion transactions in 2014.
EMO NEY_MALAYSIA
110,000,000
100,000,000
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Statistics
Figure 4.2 E-money in Malaysia
According to figure 4.2, it seen that e-money transactions in Malaysia are increasing from 2010 to 2014.
The increasing number of e-money transactions in Malaysia are tend to be stable, which are 15% from
2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012, 14% from 2012 to 2013, and 12% from 2013 to 2014. The increases
caused by the awareness of the society and the government encourages in using electronic money.
Thailand
In 2010, the volume of e-money transactions in Thailand has reached to 221 million transactions and
increasing to 787 million transactions in 2014.
EMO NEY_THAILAND
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bank of Thailand Statistics
Figure 4.3 E-money in Thailand
According to figure 4.3, it seen that e-money transactions in Malaysia are increasing from 2010 to 2014.
The increasing number of e-money transactions in Malaysia are tend to be decline, which are 57% from
2010 to 2011, 47% from 2011 to 2012, 31% from 2012 to 2013, and 18% from 2013 to 2014. The increases
caused by the awareness of the society and the government encourages in using electronic money.
Singapore
In 2010, the volume of e-money transactions in Singapore has reached to 2.5 billion transactions and
increasing to 3.1 billion transactions in 2014.
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EMO NEY_SINGAPO R E
280,000,000
260,000,000
240,000,000
220,000,000
200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore Statistics
Figure 4.4 E-money in Singapore
According to figure 4.4, it seen that e-money transactions in Singapore are increasing from 2010 to
2014. The most increasing number of e-money transactions is occurred from 2010 to 2011 that reached
by 18%. While the following years increases are only 2%. The increases caused by the awareness of the
society and the government encourages in using electronic money. Philippine
In 2010, the volume of e-money transactions in Philippine has reached to 138 billion transactions and
increasing to 248 million transactions in 2014.
EMO NEY_PHILIPPINE
22,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Statistics
Figure 4.5 E-money in Singapore
According to figure 4.5, it seen that e-money transactions in Philippine are increasing from 2010 to 2014. The
increasing number of e-money transactions in Philippine are tend to be stable, which are 14% from 2010 to
2011, 19% from 2011 to 2012, 15% from 2012 to 2013, and 14% from 2013 to 2014. The increases caused by
the awareness of the society and the government encourages in using electronic money.
B. The Growth of Velocity of Money in ASEAN-5 Countries
In this research, the velocity of money is calculated from nominal GDP (at current prices) divided by the
amount of money supply (M1).
Indonesia
The chart below shows the growth of GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money during 2010-2014.
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90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP_INDONESIA
M1_INDONESIA
V_INDONESIA
Source: Bank Indonesia Statistics
Figure 4.6 GDP, M1, and Velocity of Money Growth in Indonesia
The growth of velocity of money is influenced by the growth of GDP and money supply (M1). According
to the graph 4.6, it shows that the velocity of money continues to fluctuate year by year. At the end of
2012, the velocity of money in Indonesia reached the most drastic decline. While in the mid-2010 the
velocity of money reached the highest level. The decrease caused by the increases of the money supply
(M1).
Malaysia
The chart below shows the growth of GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money during 2010-2014.
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP_MALAYSIA
M1_MALAYSIA
V_MALAYSIA
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Statistics
Figure 4.7 GDP, M1, and Velocity of Money Growth in Malaysia
The growth of velocity of money is influenced by the growth of GDP and money supply (M1). According
to the graph 4.7, it shows that the velocity of money continues to fluctuate year by year and tend to be
decline. At the end of 2014-, the velocity of money in Malaysia reached the least level of decline. The
decrease caused by the increases of the money supply (M1). Thailand
The chart below shows the growth of GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money during 2010-2014
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55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP_THAILAND
M1_THAILAND
V_THAILAND
Source: Bank of Thailand Statistics
Figure 4.9 GDP, M1, and Velocity of Money Growth in Singapore
The growth of velocity of money is influenced by the growth of GDP and money supply (M1). According
to the graph 4.8, it shows that the velocity of money in Thailand tend to be stable. The highest level is
reached on 2010 and the lowest level is reached in the mid-2011. The decrease caused by the increases
of the money supply (M1).
Table 4.1 Pooled least Square with White Test between weighted and un-weighted sum squared resid
Weighted Statistics
Mean dependent
R-squared 0.980472var
Adjusted R-
squared 0.980003 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression 10771309 Sum squared resid
F-statistic 2094.362 Durbin-Watson stat 0.315773
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted
Statistics
Mean dependent
R-squared 0.983305var
Sum squared
resid 3.29E+16 Durbin-Watson stat
Singapore
The chart below shows the growth of GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money during 2010-2014.
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140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP_SINGAPORE
M1_SINGAPORE
V_SINGAPORE
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore Statistics
Fgure 4.8 GDP, M1, and Velocity of Money Growth in Thailand
The growth of velocity of money is influenced by the growth of GDP and money supply (M1). According
to the graph 4.9, it shows that the velocity of money in Singapore tend to be decline. The highest level is
reached on 2010 and the lowest level is reached in the end of 2014. The decreases caused by the
increases of the money supply (M1).
Philippine
The chart below shows the growth of GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money during 2010-2014.
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2010 2011 2012 2013 20
GDP_PHILIPPINE
M1_PHILIPPINE
V_PHILIPPINE
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Statistics
Figure 4.10 GDP, M1, and Velocity of Money Growth in Philippine
The growth of velocity of money is influenced by the growth of GDP and money supply (M1). According
to the graph 4.10, it shows that the velocity of money in Philippine tend to be decline. The highest level
is reached on 2010 and the lowest level is reached in the end of 2014. The decreases caused by the
increases of the money supply (M1).
C. Data Analysis
Classical Linear Assumption Test
• Heteroscedasticity Test
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Heteroscedasticity test is used in order to determine whether variance error is constant. The author
decided to use pooled least square test to detect the heteroscedasticity. The pooled least square test is
comparing the weighted and un-weighted sum squared resid. The Pooled least Square table is shown
below.
From the table above, the weighted squared resid statistics is 3.39E+16, which is higher than the un-
weighted sum squared resid, 3.29E+16. It means that the author should accept H0 or no
heteroscedasticity.
• Multicollinearity Test
Multicollinearity test is used in order to determine whether the independent variable has a perfect linear
relationship with any other independent variables. This test is conducted using the Pair-Wise Correlation
Matrix to determine the multicollinearity. The Pair-Wise correlation matrix should not be more than 0.80.
Table 4.2 Pair-Wise Correlation Matrix
GDP? M1? V?
-
GDP? 1.000000 0.218555 0.632072
M1? 0.218555 1.000000 0.483552
- -
V? 0.632072 0.483552 1.000000
According to table 4.2, there is no correlation between each independent variable since there is no value
of more than 0.8. Data that is identified as multicollinearity is if the correlation coefficient between
independent variables are more than one or equal to 0.8 (Gujarati, 2003). So, it can be concluded that
there is no multicollinearity between the independent variables.
Regression Analysis
Table 4.4 Fixed Effect Model
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman
Test
Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq. Chi-S
Test Summary Statistic d
5.82646
Cross-section random 8
There are three approaches to analyze the data panel model. The first test is using Pooled Least Square
but data panel has been use in this research, then the pooled least square specifications are not fit with
panel data so the pooled least square is ignored. (Econometrics Book, Bank Indonesia). However, fixed
effect and random effect model will be used to continue the method in this regression analysis. The
author conducts the hausman test to choose fixed effect or random effect model that will be used in this
research.
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According to table 4.3, the result shows that p-value is 0.0204, which is less than the significance level of
0.05. It concludes that the panel data model is using Fixed Effect approach to evaluate the output of
regression model by goodness of fit.
Table 4.3 Hausman Test
Dependent Variable: EMONEY?
Method: Pooled Least Squares
Date: 08/20/15 Time: 09:28
Sample: 2010M01 2014M12
Included observations: 60
Cross-sections included: 5
Total pool (balanced) observations: 300
Coefficie
Variable nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
-
C 0.281413 0.165948 -1.695793 0.0910
GDP?0.335869 0.291566 1.151948 0.0203
M1? 0.104153 0.916154 11.36853
V? 0.487895 0.234830 2.077645
Fixed Effects
(Cross)
-
_INDONESIA--C 1.13E+08
-
_MALAYSIA--C 6675284.
-
2250529
_THAILAND--C 5
1.44E+0
_SINGAPORE--C 8
-
_PHILIPPINE--C 2244063.
Effects
Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Mean dependent
R-squared0.984077var
Adjusted R- 0.98369 S.D. dependent
squared 5var
S.E. of Akaike info
regression11320774criterion
Sum squared
resid3.74E+16 Schwarz criterion
- Hannan-Quinn
Log likelihood5294.272criter.
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Durbin-Watson 0.16215
F-statistic2578.045stat 0
0.00000
Prob(F-statistic) 0
From the model above, it can be concluded that:
The fixed effect model indicates a positive relationship between gross domestic product, money supply
(M1), and velocity of money toward electronic money transactions.
The country that has highest average of electronic money transaction is Singapore.
The country that has lowest average of electronic money transaction is Indonesia.
Goodness of Fit
Coefficient of Determination (R2)
According to the table 4.4, the value of coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.984077 or 98.41% of
dependent variable can be explained by independent variables, while 1.59% is explained by other
variables.
F test
The value of F statistics from the table 4.4 is 2578.045 and it compared to F table for α = 5%, df1 or (k – 1)
= 3, df2 (n – k) = 277 is 2.637193. Since F statistic is higher than F table, it means accept H1, which all
independent variables have significant affect towards dependent variable.
T test
In this test, the p-value of each variable should be compared to the significance level of 0.05. Since all
three independent variables have lower p-value than significance level, the three variables have
significance influence. According to table 4.4, gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity
of money have positive affect towards Electronic Money Transactions since the coefficient value is
positive.
Result Analysis
In the previous paragraph, the author has analyzed the data. Therefore, in this section the analysis will
be delivered as descriptive analysis.
Gross Domestic Product
According to table 4.4, gross domestic product (GDP) is a significant variable that influence the
electronic money transactions. There is a positive influence to electronic money transactions amounted
to 0.335869, which means if the GDP increased by 1%, it will encourage an increase of 0.34% in
electronic money in ASEAN-5 countries (ceteris paribus).
Money Supply (M1)
According to table 4.4, money supply (M1) is a significant variable that influence the electronic money
transactions. There is a positive influence to electronic money transactions amounted to 0.104153,
which means if the M1 increased by 1%, it will encourage an increase of 0.10% in electronic money in
ASEAN-5 countries (ceteris paribus).
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Velocity of Money
According to table 4.4, velocity of money is a significant variable that influence the electronic money
transactions. There is a positive influence to electronic money transactions amounted to 0.487895,
which means if the velocity of money increased by 1%, it will encourage an increase of 0.49% in
electronic money in ASEAN-5 countries (ceteris paribus).
Conclusion
Based on the analysis in the previous chapter, the author concludes that the electronic money
transactions in ASEAN-5 countries have been increased from 2010 to 2014, it shows that there is a
positive trend in electronic money usage. The increases caused by the awareness of the society and the
government in ASEAN-5 countries that encourages in using electronic money. The velocity of money in
ASEAN-5 countries tends to decrease from 2010 to 2014. It shows that there is a negative trend in
velocity of money. The decreases caused by the increases of the money supply (M1). Then, The gross
domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money have positive and significant relationships
to electronic money transactions for 0.34%, 0.10%, and 0.49% in ASEAN-5 countries.
On coefficient of determination test (R2), it shows that 98.41% of dependent variable can be explained
by independent variables (gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money), while
1.59% is explained by other variables. The country that has highest average of electronic money
transaction is Singapore. The country that has lowest average of electronic money transaction is
Indonesia.
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