Global warming

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For other uses, see Global warming (disambiguation).
"Climate change" redirects here. For a discussion of climate trends throughout Earth's
history, see Climate variability and change. For other uses, see Climate change
(disambiguation).

Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2019 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1978.
Source: NASA.

The rising average temperature of Earth's climate system, called global warming, is

driving changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather, arrival of seasons, and more.
Collectively, global warming and its effects are known as climate change. While there
have been prehistoric periods of global warming, observed changes since the mid-20th
century have been unprecedented in rate and scale. [1]

Observed temperature from NASA[2] vs the 1850–1900 average as a pre-industrial baseline. The primary driver
for increased global temperatures in the industrial era is human activity, with natural forces adding variability. [3]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that "human
influence on climate has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-
20th century". These findings have been recognized by the national science academies
of major nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international
standing.[4] The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases,
with over 90% of the impact from carbon dioxide and methane.[5] Fossil fuel burning is
the principal source of these gases, with agricultural emissions and deforestation also
playing significant roles. Temperature rise is enhanced by self-reinforcing climate
feedbacks, such as loss of snow cover, increased water vapour, and
melting permafrost.
Land surfaces are heating faster than the ocean surface, leading to heat
waves, wildfires, and the expansion of deserts.[6] Increasing atmospheric energy and
rates of evaporation are causing more intense storms and weather extremes,
damaging infrastructure and agriculture.[7] Surface temperature increases are greatest in
the Arctic and have contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.
Environmental impacts include the extinction or relocation of many species as
their ecosystems change, most immediately in coral reefs, mountains, and the Arctic.
Surface temperatures would stabilize and decline a little if emissions were cut off, but
other impacts will continue for centuries, including rising sea levels from melting ice
sheets, rising ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification from elevated levels of
carbon dioxide.[8]

Some effects of climate change

Heat wave intensification. Events like the June 2019 European heat wave are
becoming more common.
 Mitigation efforts to address global warming include the development and deployment
of low carbon energy technologies, policies to reduce fossil fuel
emissions, reforestation, forest preservation, as well as the development of
potential climate engineering technologies. Societies and governments are also working
to adapt to current and future global warming impacts, including improved coastline
protection, better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.
Countries work together on climate change under the umbrella of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has near-universal
membership. The goal of the convention is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system". The IPCC has stressed the need to keep global
warming below 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels in order to avoid some
irreversible impacts.[10] With current policies and pledges, global warming by the end of
the century is expected to reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F).[11] At the current greenhouse gas
(GHG) emission rate, the carbon budget for staying below 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) would be
exhausted by 2028.[12]

Contents

 1Observed temperature rise

o 1.1Regional variation
 2Physical drivers of recent climate change
o 2.1Greenhouse gases
o 2.2Land surface change
o 2.3Aerosols and clouds
o 2.4Natural forcings
 3Climate change feedback
 4Future warming and the carbon budget
 5Effects
o 5.1Physical environment
o 5.2Nature and wildlife
o 5.3Humans
 6Responses
 o 6.1Mitigation
o 6.2Adaptation
o 6.3Climate engineering
 7Society and culture
o 7.1Political response
o 7.2Scientific consensus
o 7.3Public debate
 8Discovery
 9Terminology
 10See also
 11Notes
 12Sources
o 12.1IPCC reports
o 12.2Other peer-reviewed sources
o 12.3Books, reports and legal documents
o 12.4Non-technical sources
 13External links

Observed temperature rise

Main articles: Temperature record of the past 1000 years and Instrumental temperature
record

Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last millennia using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and
ice cores in blue.[13] Observational data is from 1880 to 2019.[2]
NASA data[2] shows that land surface temperatures have increased faster than ocean temperatures.

Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets show that the climate system is
warming,[14] with the 2009–2018 decade being 0.93 ± 0.07 °C (1.67 ± 0.13 °F) warmer
than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). [15] Currently, surface temperatures are
rising by about 0.2 °C (0.36 °F) per decade.[16] Since 1950, the number of cold days and
nights has decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased.
[17]
 Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Climate Anomaly and
the Little Ice Age, were not as synchronous as current warming, but may have reached
temperatures as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions.
[18]
 There have been prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the Paleocene–
Eocene Thermal Maximum.[19] However, the observed rise in temperature and CO
2 concentrations has been so rapid that even abrupt geophysical events that took place
in Earth's history do not approach current rates. [20]
Climate proxy records show that natural variations offset the early effects of
the Industrial Revolution, so there was little net warming between the 18th century and
the mid-19th century,[21] when thermometer records began to provide global coverage.
[22]
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted the baseline
reference period 1850–1900 as an approximation of pre-industrial global mean surface
temperature.[21]
The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide
range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups. [23] Although
the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface
atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy in the climate system over
the last 50 years has been stored in the ocean, warming it. [24] The remainder of the
additional energy has melted ice and warmed the continents and the atmosphere.[25] The
ocean heat uptake drives thermal expansion which has contributed to observed sea
level rise.[26] Further indicators of climate change include an increase in the frequency
and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow and land ice and
increased atmospheric humidity.[27] Flora and fauna also portray behaviour consistent
with warming, such as the earlier flowering of plants in spring.[28]
Although record-breaking years attract considerable media attention, individual years
are less significant than the overall global surface temperature, which is subject to
short-term fluctuations that overlie long-term trends. [29] An example of such an episode is
the slower rate of surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012, which was
described as the global warming hiatus.[30] Throughout this period, ocean heat storage
continued to progress steadily upwards, and in subsequent years, surface temperatures
have spiked upwards. The slower pace of warming can be attributed to a combination of
natural fluctuations, reduced solar activity, and increased reflection sunlight of by
particles from volcanic eruptions.[31]
Regional variation