Most
Optimistic Pessimistic
Probable
Immediate
Activity a m b t σ^2
Predecessor/s
A - 43 48 53 48 2.78
B A 24 35 40 34 7.11
C B 32 40 48 40 7.11
D C 24 26 28 26 0.44
E C 22 30 38 30 7.11
F A 10 11 12 11 0.11
G D, E, F 2 6 10 6 1.78
H F 4 6 8 6 0.44
I H 20 22 24 22 0.44
J G, I 33 35 37 35 0.44
Q1 Construct the Project Network
Q2 Compute the variance for each activity
Q3 Find the Critical Path
Q4 What is the expected length of the project
Q5 What is the probability of meeting the 200-day deadline
Critical Path: (Q3)
A-->B-->C-->E-->G-->J
Time to Complete the Project: (Q4)
= 48 + 34 + 40 + 30 + 6 + 35 = 193
σ^2 = 2.78 + 7.11 + 7.11 + 7.11 + 1.48 + 0.44
26.03
σ 5.10
Solve for the value of z-test
z = T - E(t) / = 200 - 193 / 5.10
σ 1.37
Value on table 0.4147
0.5 Fixed
0.9147 91.47% (Q5)
H 59 65 I 65 87
6 130 136 22 136 158
71 71
F 48 59 G 152 158
11 119 130 6 152 158
71 0
D 122 148
26 132 158
10
A 0 48 B 48 82 C 82 122
48 0 48 34 48 82 40 82 122
0 0 0
E 122 152
30 122 152
0
J 158 193
35 158 193
0