Probability
Introduction: Today's your class trip to the zoo. You aren't sure if you
should bring a raincoat, so you check the weather forecast. The weather
prediction for the day is 10% chance of rain. Do you bring your raincoat?
Let's look at the probability of rain. Probability is the measure of how
likely an event will occur. Since there is a 10% chance of rain, the
likelihood of rain is one out of ten. If the forecast is correct, rain is
unlikely, but not impossible. You most likely won't need your raincoat, but
you may want to bring it just in case.
The probability of an event occurring is a ratio of the number of outcomes
that meet the condition to the total number of possible
outcomes. Probability can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or
percentage. The closer the value is to zero, the less likely an event will
occur. The closer the value is to one, or 100%, the greater the likelihood
the event will occur. The probability of rain on the day of your class trip
can be expressed as:
P(rain)=110=0.1=10%
Practice Questions
1. You pick one of these items without looking. How likely is it that you
will pick a dragon?
a. certain
b. likely
c. unlikely*
d. impossible
2. What is the probability that a six-sided number cube will land on an
odd number?
a. P(odd)=12P(odd)=1/2*
b. P (odd)=13P(odd)=1/3
c .P (odd)=16P(odd)=1/6
d. P(odd)=5/6
3.
If the spinner is spun 27 times, what is the most logical estimate for the
number of times the spinner would land on red?
a. 7 times
b. 9 times*
c. 27 times
d. 3 times
4. If you roll a die 90 times, about how many times would you expect to
roll a 4?
a. 90
b. 30*
c. 10
d. 15
5. Estimate the number of times you have to throw a die in order to roll
the number six 50 times.
a. 100
b. 200
c. 300*
d. 600
Activity 1
Answer the following questions correctly.
1. There are 6 blue cubes, 3 yellow cubes, and 1 black cube in a sack. If I
reach in and pull one out without looking, what is the probability that I
will pull out a blue cube?
a. probable
b. not probable
c. certain
d. impossible
2. There are 6 blue cubes, 3 yellow cubes, and 1 black cube in a sack. If I
reach in and pull one out without looking, what is the probability that I
will pull out the black cube?
a. probable
b. not probable
c. certain
d. impossible
3. A restaurant display case has the following tea bag selections and
number of bags available for each kind.
Black Tea 15
Cinnamon 10
Green Tea 15
Lemon 4
Raspberry 6
What is the probability that a tea bag randomly selected from the case
will be cinnamon?
a. 150150
b. 110110
c. 1515
d. 1414
4. If you choose a number from the following list of numbers at random,
what is the probability of picking an odd number?
3, 6, 8, 9, 11, 17, 24, 29, 33, 45, 47
a. 5 out of 11
b. 6 out of 11
c. 8 out of 11
d. 4 out of 11
5.
Marlene flipped a nickel four times, and each time, the coin landed on
heads. What is the PROBABILITY of the nickel landing on tails the fifth
time?
a. 1/5
b. 1/3
c. 1/6
d. ½
6. Paige has 8 cards in a bag. 3 are red and 5 are blue. If you pick a card,
what are the chances of picking a red card?
a. 1/8
b. 2/8
c. 3/6
d. 3/8
7. What is the probability of picking a yellow ball from a box that has 10
yellow balls, 8 red balls and 9 blue balls?
a. 8 out of 27
b. 10 out of 27
c. 9 out of 27
d. 9 out of 18
8. If one letter is chosen randomly from the word "BANANA," what is the
probability that the letter chosen is the letter "A?"
a. 1 out of 6
b. 3 out of 6
c. 2 out of 6
d. 3 out of 4
9. A number cube is rolled twice. Find the probability that a 4 is rolled
both times.
10. What is the probability of flipping a coin and having it land on tails?
