Ans.
1
Three Point Moving Average: -
Tabular Presentation
Wee Actual Reams Average 3 Forecast @ Error @ 0.1 Forecast @ 0.2 Error @ 0.2
k Used 0.1
1 132
2 163
3 171 147.50 147.50
4 148 155.33 145.15 2.85 152.20 4.20
5 135 160.67 144.87 9.87 151.36 16.36
6 162 151.33 145.85 16.15 148.09 13.91
7 107 148.33 144.24 37.24 150.87 43.87
8 144 134.67 147.96 3.96 142.10 1.90
9 127 137.67 148.36 21.36 142.48 15.48
10 193 126.00 150.49 42.51 139.38 53.62
11 142 154.67 146.24 4.24 150.11 8.11
12 163 154.00 146.67 16.33 148.48 14.52
13 152 166.00 145.03 6.97 151.39 0.61
14 170 152.33 144.34 25.66 151.51 18.49
15 131 161.67 141.77 10.77 155.21 24.21
16 153 151.00 142.85 10.15 150.37 2.63
17 137 151.33 141.83 4.83 150.89 13.89
18 172 140.33 142.31 29.69 148.11 23.89
19 122 154.00 139.34 17.34 152.89 30.89
20 142 143.67 141.08 0.92 146.71 4.71
21 189 145.33 140.99 48.01 145.77 43.23
22 138 151.00 136.19 1.81 154.42 16.42
23 161 156.33 136.00 25.00 151.13 9.87
24 133 162.67 133.50 0.50 153.11 20.11
25 133.55 149.09
TOTA 336.17 285.19
L
MAD 16.01 18.14
Standard Deviation 20.01 22.67
With the forecast of 133/149 in week
25,
95%levelofconfidencethattheactualval 93.53 173.57 103.74 194.43
ue will liebetween:
With the forecast of 133/149 in week
25,
99.7% level of confidence that the 73.52 193.58 81.07 217.10
actual value will lie between:
Graphical Presentation
Interpretations on 3-point moving average:-
1. Onthebasisof3pointmovingaverage,it is clearly visible that Mad is comparatively lower
for Alpha 0.1 against alpha0.2.
2. Standard Deviation is 16.01 when α=0.1 & 18.14 whenα=0.2
3. Forecast using higher value of ὰ responds more rapidly to changes. If error (actual value
– forecastvalue)islargethenὰneedstobelargetoallow theforecasttobelarge, &viceversa.
4. I have also calculated the possible value of week25;
(a) For α=0.1
With the forecast of 133.55 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 93.53 & 173.5
With the forecast of 133.55 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 73.52 & 193.58
(b) For α=0.2
With the forecast of 149.09 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 103.74 & 194.43
With the forecast of 149.09 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 81.07 & 217.10
Nine Point Moving Average:-
Tabular Presentation
Wee Actual Reams Average 9 Forecast @ Error @ α=0.1 Forecast @ Error @ α=0.2
k Used α=0.1 α=0.2
1 132
2 163
3 171
4 148
5 135
6 162
7 107
8 144
9 127 145.25 145.25
10 193 143.22 143.43 49.58 141.60 51.40
11 142 150.00 148.38 6.38 151.88 9.88
12 163 147.67 147.74 15.26 149.90 13.10
13 152 146.78 149.27 2.73 152.52 0.52
14 170 147.22 149.54 20.46 152.42 17.58
15 131 151.11 151.59 20.59 155.93 24.93
16 153 147.67 149.53 3.47 150.95 2.05
17 137 152.78 149.88 12.88 151.36 14.36
18 172 152.00 148.59 23.41 148.49 23.51
19 122 157.00 150.93 28.93 153.19 31.19
20 142 149.11 148.04 6.04 146.95 4.95
21 189 149.11 147.43 41.57 145.96 43.04
22 138 152.00 151.59 13.59 154.57 16.57
23 161 150.44 150.23 10.77 151.26 9.74
24 133 149.44 151.31 18.31 153.20 20.20
25 149.48 149.16
TOTA 273.95 283.04
L
MAD 18.26 18.87
Standard Deviation 22.83 23.59
With the forecast of 149 in week 25,
95%
level of confidence that the actual value 103.82 195.14 101.99 196.34
will lie between:
With the forecast of 149 in week 25,
99.7%
level of confidence that the actual value 80.99 217.96 78.40 219.92
will
lie between:
Graphical Presentation
Nine Pointer Moving A ver age Char t
Actual Reams Used Forecast @ α=0.1 Forecast @ α=0.2
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Interpretations on 9-point moving average:-
1 Based on9pointmovingaverage,itisclearlyvisiblethatMadiscomparativelylowerfor Alpha 0.1
against alpha0.2.
2 Standard Deviation is 22.83 when α=0.1 & 23.59 whenα=0.2
3 Forecast using higher value of ὰ responds more rapidly to changes. If error (actual value –
forecastvalue)islargethenὰ needstobelargetoallow theforecasttobelarge, &viceversa.
4 I have also calculated the possible value of week25;
(a) For α=0.1
With the forecast of 149.48 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 103.82 & 195.14
With the forecast of 149.48 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 80.99 & 217.96
(b)Forα=0.2
With the forecast of 149.16 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 101.99 &196.34
With the forecast of 149.16 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value
will lie between 78.40 & 219.92
Conclusion:
The difference between the 3-point & 9-point moving averages can be seen clearly. Both
averages damp down the random variation in the requirement. The 9-point average,
because it involved an average over a larger number of values, will tend to be more ‘stable’,
but equally will be slow to react to actual changes in level of requirement. The 3-point
average will respond more rapidly to actual changes but is likely to be unduly influenced
by random variations.
Ans.2 (a)
Motion & Time Study: - When doing business, every organization should know about the
competitiveness in market and also the fact that right perception on it can give a company
an opportunity to improve the quality of products and services. Compromising on quality
can be a huge mistake for any company and can lead it into a state of jeopardy in the
market. Manufacturing forms a huge part of any organization and hence it is obvious to pay
extra attention to various manufacturing tools a company uses to reduce it costs and
minimize production of waste as much as possible. The goal of a company is usually to
eradicate seven types of wastes-transportation, defects, motion, inventory, incorrect
processing, and overproduction. To help fulfil this very goal, the time and motion study is
applied.
Usually, there are three types of work in an industry-
Value added: It is the type of work for which the customer is willing to pay and it adds
value to the product.
Non-valueadded:Customerdoesn'tpayforitbutitisanessentialstepinmanufacturingprocess.
It should be minimized.
Waste: It is the type of work which doesn’t add value to the product. A customer is not
willing to pay for it and it is no essential in manufacturing process either. It should be
completely avoided.
Time and motion study provides techniques to analyse an operation or task, measuring
which activities add value and how to eliminate or minimize the ones which do not add
value at all. Through this technique, it is easy to calculate its capacity and increase its
efficiency and
productivitygivingthecompanyacompetitiveedgebyloweringitsproductioncostsandoffering
maximized quality at a considerable low price to thecustomer.
Timestudywasessentiallyusedmainlyfordeterminingtimestandards,andearlier,agreateruse
was made of time study rather than motionstudy.
It was not until 1930s that the objective of finding better and simpler methods of getting
job done was proposed. This was followed by a period during which motion study and time
study were used together and hence, the combined term motion and time study came into
use.
The purpose of the motion and time study is to improve the effectiveness and the
overall productivity of the work place.
Motion and time study are composed of mainly four parts:
1. Developing the Preferred Work MethodDesign.
Every business and industrial organisation is concerned with the creation of goods and
services. In a manufacturing plant, for example, the production process might include
the acquisition of raw materials, the overall fabrication and the delivery of the final
product. While designing such a manufacturing process, the entire system consisting of
every
[Link]
is to design a system, or a set of operations which give the most optimizedsolution.
2. Standardizing theOperation.
The process of standardization follows soon after a proper design has been decided in
the initial step. The work is broken down into specific jobs or relevant operations which
are
[Link],shape,andqualityofmaterial,requiredtools,
or any piece of equipment must bespecified.
3. Determining the TimeStandard
Motion and time study is used to calculate the standard number of minutes that a
qualified
andproperlytrainedworkershouldtaketoperformaspecifictaskwhenworkingatanormal
[Link],orforcostestimation
of the labour involved. The most common method of measuring work is known as the
stop
[Link],eachofwhich
[Link],andthetimes are
added together to get the total selected time for performing the whole operation. The
working speed of the operator during the time study is calculated by the observer, and
the said time is adjusted by this rating factor so that a qualified worker, operating at a
normal pace, can do the work in the specified time. This adjusted time is called the
normaltime.
4. Training theOperator.
Even a deliberately intricate plan for doing a work is of no value if it can’t be put into
effect. It is necessary to train the operator to perform the work in the specified manner.
In such cases, a supervisor is appointed to train the operator and a specified written
standard practice is used for assistance. When large numbers of workers are trained for
a single operation; the training is carried out in a separate training department.
Ans.2 (b)
Ergonomics originates from two Greek words, Ergomeaning work and Nomoimeaning
Natural Laws. Ergonomics quite simply put means to work by natural laws. It is basically a
discipline that involves modifying the work environment in such a way that it perfectly fits
the person in it. It deals with coming up with innovative designs which deals with people
and the environment around them. When this principle is applied correctly, it can
significantly reduce the amount of fatigue and muscular discomfort one may face during
work hours. Since work nowadays mostly involves working in front of a computer, it can
cause some repetitive stress injuries in certain parts of one's body, i.e., wrists, fingers, back,
shoulders, neck etc. Hence the main goal of
Ergonomicsistoreducethistoaconsiderablelevelandmaketheworkinghoursforanindividual
more comfortable.
Covid-19 has forced almost everyone to be confined inside their homes. This has
significantly changed the conventional workplace culture because, now suddenly, everyone
ought to work from home instead. Even though, the idea of working from home might seem
happening at first but it can lead to some serious health issues.
Since our interaction with outer world is almost negligible these days, it can limit our daily
requirement of physical movement and make us more lethargic, which happens to be a
direct enemy of working. Ergonomics can prove to be efficient in following ways-
1) Correctposture
[Link]
inonepositionforquitealongtimecanbehazardoustobackpostureandcancauseback
muscle pain. In such cases, it is important to have correct posture. Make sure to have
a desk chair which has lumbar support. If one has a regular chair, it is advisable to
put a small cushion behind to support the lower back. Also, while working on a
keyboard, a
person’swristshouldbeproperlyalignedwiththeshoulderssothatitcouldpreventwrist
pains.
2) Quietplace
Since working from home can be very distracting, it is advisable to work in a usually
quieter place. This would significantly lower one’s interaction with the distracting
elements present at home and also will help to increase focus.
3) Eyecare
Lookingatthemonitorforquitealongtimewithoutanybreakscanprovetobelethalfor
one’s eye sight. It is advisable to take small breaks and to reduce the strain on the
eyes and focus on a distant object for some time. Also, it is important to make sure
that your monitor is at the right level with youreyes.
4) Hydrate
Dehydrationcancausesevereheadachesandcanrestrictapersonfromworkingwithfull
[Link],itisimportanttotakewaterbreaksfromtimetotimewhileworking. Water
is a natural refreshing drink and revitalizes both body and mindalike.
5) Exercise
Working while sitting at one place for a long period of time can cause back pains. It is
important to take small breaks in between to do relaxing stretching exercises to ease up
back muscles to improve the overall posture of the body.
Redo Question 2 of Assignment E2
A. (a) I would select below two factors for Factor X &Y respectively.
FactorX:-[Link],
[Link],themoreindustrializedanation
is,[Link] on the
success or failure of a retail establishment is how the retailer is able to handle the competitive advantages
of its competition. A retailer must be knowledgeable concerning both direct and indirect
competitorsinthemarketplace,whatgoodsandservicestheyprovide,andtheirimageinthemindofthe
consumer population. Sometimes a retailer may decide to go head to head with a competitor when the
reasons are not entirelyclear.
Factor Y: - Demographic Characteristics -Demography is the study of population characteristics that are
[Link]’sage,gender,income,
education, family characteristics, occupation, and many other items. These demographic variables may be
used to select market segments, which become the target markets for the retailer. Demographics aid
[Link] to
track many consumer trends by analyzing changes in demographics. Demographics provide retailers
[Link]
characteristics helps retailers find out exactly who their consumers are. Retailers who target certain
specific demographics characteristics should make sure that those characteristics exist in enough
abundance to justify locations in new countries orregions.
Ques.2 (b) Numerical: -
As per given data,
Rental Charges = 0.4
Parking = 0.25
Proximity to fashion = 0.15
Let factor ‘Y’ be x,
Then factor x = 3.5x
Since we know that sum of all weights = 1
Hence, 0.4+0.25+0.15+3.5x+x = 1
0.8+4.5x = 1
x = 0.2/4.5
x = 0.044
Weights of factors y =0.044 i.e. 0.04
& factors x = 3.5(0.044) = 0.16
We will calculate weight of each duration: -
Factor Weight L1 L2 L3
Score WL1 Score WL2 Score WL3
Rental Charges 0.4 80 32 70 28 75 30
Parking 0.25 75 18.75 90 22.5 85 21.25
P to fav. market 0.15 75 11.25 80 12 60 9
Factor x 0.16 60 9.6 65 10.4 70 11.2
Factor y 0.04 1 4 80 3.2 90 3.6
Total WL1=75.6 WL2=76.1 WL3= 75.05
Therefore, on the basis of location weights location 2 has the weights.
Hence, L2 is superior.
Ans2. ( c ) Numerical : -
Acc to ques , let x=y=1,
Then: Parking = Proximity to fashion market = 2
& Rental Charges = 2.5(1+1+2+2) =15
So, total = 15+2+2+1+1
Proportionate :
Rental Charges Parking Proximity to fashion Factor x Factor y
15/21 2/21 2/21 1/21 1/21
0.714 0.095 0.095 0.048 0.048
Above are new weights
Now, we will calculate locational weights.
Factor Weigh L1 L2 L3
t
Score WL1 Score WL2 Score WL3
Rent Charges 0.414 80 57.12 70 49.98 75 53.55
Parking 0.095 75 7.125 90 8.55 85 8.075
Prox. To fashion 0.095 75 7.125 80 7.6 60 5.7
Factor x 0.048 60 2.88 65 3.12 70 3.36
Factor y 0.048 100 4.8 80 3.84 90 4.32
Total Σ WL1=79.05 Σ WL2 =73.09 Σ WL3 =75.005
Therefore, based on rational weights
Location L has highest preference.
Hence L1 is superior.
