Global Grain Supply Amid COVID-19
Global Grain Supply Amid COVID-19
MMT
Russia, and the United States have produced 600
at levels that are more than sufficient to meet 400
rising global demand. Furthermore, wheat 200
harvests in major producing countries in the
0
Northern Hemisphere are only a few months
away.
Rice: Although several regions’ production Global Rice Stocks and Production
700
levels are down year-over-year, a bumper
600
2019/20 global rice harvest is still expected,
500
with production just around half a percent
400
MMT
Even with lower production, overall supplies are up from the prior year because of record carryin stocks.
Stocks are particularly high in China and India, both major exporters. Despite the current tumultuous
market and some production declines in Southeast Asia, 2019/20 ending stocks are still forecast 3
percent higher than 2018/19 ending stocks.
Although some trade-restrictive measures have been put in place, global wheat and rice supplies are at
record levels and are large enough to meet global demand.
1 Major Exporters: Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.
Global rice production is reduced further this month particularly on smaller crops in Burma,
Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. Global trade is also cut on reduced demand from
Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Exports are lowered based on bans placed by Vietnam and Cambodia, and
an export quota established by Burma.
RICE PRICES
Global: Since the March WASDE, Thai 100B quotes rose sharply to $582/ton, reflecting concerns about
exportable supplies amid drought. These are the highest quotes in 7 years. Vietnam has banned its
exports, but its most recent quote increased to $435/ton.
Meanwhile, Indian quotes were most recently at $352/ton, though the country’s current lockdown
status has made it challenging to export and reportedly very little is moving at the ports. Pakistani
quotes spiked to $418/ton showing the combined impacts of lockdowns and logistical challenges.
U.S. quotes have also risen to the highest level in 7 years, $660/ton on increasingly tight supplies both
domestically and globally. Uruguayan quotes have remained at $515/ton as South American harvests
are beginning.
650
600
550
$/MT
500
450
400
350
300
MMT
numerous countries amid the COVID-
19 pandemic. 41
39
Most notable among the rice export
bans is Vietnam, the third-largest 37
global exporter since 2013. The Prime
35
Minister has banned exports, despite
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
requests by exporters and domestic
industry to remove or lessen the restrictions. The industry has expressed concern that restricting
exports could lead to lower domestic prices and reduced the incentive for producing rice in upcoming
crop cycles during this year.
Cambodia has also implemented a ban on the export of paddy and non-fragrant white rice, though
fragrant rice exports are still allowed. The bulk of Cambodia’s paddy exports are to neighboring Vietnam
and Thailand. China and the European Union are key import markets for its fragrant and white rice.
Rice Exports
12.0
10.0
8.0
MMT
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
United
India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan China Burma Cambodia
States
2019 9.8 7.6 6.6 4.6 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.4
2020 10.5 7.5 6.3 4.4 3.4 3.2 2.2 0.9
The second-largest exporter, Thailand, has fewer exportable supplies this year amid a drought that
resulted in a much smaller dry season crop, so its 2020 exports are forecast to be slightly lower than last
year. It has not placed any official restrictions, but its export prices have escalated to 7-year highs as
other Southeast Asian suppliers have imposed bans.
Even as Southeast Asian exports are forecast to drop, other regions are expected to benefit in this
environment. The top exporter, India, is forecast to produce a bumper crop in 2019/20 and its record
high stocks are more than three times the desired buffer levels. In fact, its record supplies could help
supply the world amid Southeast Asian exporters’ constraints. However, logistical challenges due to its
lockdown are expected to lead to reduced monthly trade in the near term. In addition, China has ample
supplies, has emerged as a large exporter at very competitive prices, and is expected to gain additional
market share this year. Exports from the United States are also expected to be up this year with a larger
crop forecast this summer based on the recent Prospective Plantings report.
While lower trade is largely exporter-driven, import demand has also been disrupted by the COVID-19
pandemic. For instance, Saudi Arabia has prohibited pilgrims from visiting its religious sites, which is
expected to lead to a decline in import demand.
In response to the trade restrictions in Southeast Asia, prices have escalated for those that are still
suppliers. Because only 9 percent of global rice production is traded in international markets, the
reduction in the number of suppliers has an immediate impact on prices, leaving importers with fewer
options from which to source. The higher prices are expected to reduce purchases from price-sensitive
markets, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global situation is dynamic because of the pandemic,
with policies rapidly changing and prices shifting in response.
Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama
Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands,
Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti,
Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto
Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos
Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands
South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas),
French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela
EU: includes countries in the customs union, including the UK (Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland,
Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom)
Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar, Iceland,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland
Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria,
Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia,
Taiwan
South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives
Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
Vietnam
Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main harvest, when
the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed begins a country's LMY for
that commodity (2019/20 starts in 2019); except for summer grains in certain Southern Hemisphere
countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second year begins the LMY (2019/20 starts in
2020). Key exporter LMY’s are:
For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website
(https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/): go to Reports, Reference Data, and then Data Availability.
Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years
and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed, industrial,
feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local marketing year exports.
Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however, reflect food, seed, industrial, feed,
and waste only.
Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables contain Trade
Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for analytical comparisons: wheat
is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.
EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union (EU27 plus
UK) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through 1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also
exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for grains are no longer maintained in the official
USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10, plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to
1999/00.
Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain
equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled
equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and mixed
grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.
The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Global Market Analysis, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,
Washington, DC 20250, prepared this publication. Information is gathered from official statistics of
foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attachés and
Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained
by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.
Note: For further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production April
2020. This publication is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service
Home Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov
Marketing Year 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Production
United States (Jun-May) 47.4 51.3 52.3 5.7 7.1 5.9 371.1 364.3 347.8
Other 715.5 680.2 712.2 489.2 492.0 490.2 709.0 759.3 765.2
World Total 762.9 731.5 764.5 494.9 499.1 496.1 1,080.1 1,123.6 1,113.0
Domestic Consumption
United States (Jun-May) 29.3 30.0 31.3 4.3 4.6 4.2 314.0 310.5 308.4
Other 711.2 704.0 716.0 477.7 481.2 485.0 778.1 815.8 825.5
World Total 740.5 734.0 747.3 482.0 485.8 489.2 1,092.1 1,126.3 1,133.9
Ending Stocks
United States (Jun-May) 29.9 29.4 26.4 0.9 1.4 0.9 54.4 56.4 53.1
Other 253.8 248.7 266.4 161.6 174.3 180.7 287.2 264.5 250.1
World Total 283.7 278.1 292.8 162.5 175.7 181.6 341.6 320.9 303.2
TY Imports
United States (Jun-May) 4.4 3.5 2.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2
Other 175.7 167.5 177.3 45.2 40.5 39.9 148.2 163.5 168.6
World Total 180.1 171.0 180.2 46.1 41.5 40.9 149.0 164.3 169.8
TY Exports
United States (Jun-May) 23.2 26.1 27.1 2.8 3.1 3.2 63.7 49.2 47.0
Other 160.8 149.3 156.4 44.9 40.4 39.6 89.1 122.7 127.1
World Total 184.0 175.4 183.5 47.7 43.5 42.8 152.8 171.9 174.1
Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and
exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.Marketing years for U.S. grains are:
Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat
only.
none
TY Exports
Argentina 527 391 375 388 330 330
Brazil 641 594 1,245 953 500 500
Burma 1,300 3,350 2,750 2,700 2,700 2,200
Cambodia 1,050 1,150 1,300 1,350 1,400 900
China 368 1,173 2,059 2,720 3,400 3,400
Egypt 200 100 50 20 100 100
European Union 270 372 308 292 300 300
Guyana 431 455 414 496 510 510
India 10,062 12,573 11,791 9,790 10,500 10,500
Pakistan 4,100 3,647 3,913 4,600 4,400 4,400
Paraguay 556 538 653 689 600 600
South Africa 145 109 113 111 125 115
Thailand 9,867 11,615 11,056 7,562 7,500 7,500
Uruguay 996 982 799 816 800 800
Vietnam 5,088 6,488 6,590 6,581 7,000 6,300
Others 1,291 1,269 1,480 1,308 1,120 1,115
Subtotal 36,892 44,806 44,896 40,376 41,285 39,570
United States 3,343 3,349 2,780 3,135 3,225 3,225
World Total 40,235 48,155 47,676 43,511 44,510 42,795
none
TY Imports
Benin 450 550 625 550 600 600
Brazil 786 758 537 691 900 850
Burkina 420 500 550 600 620 620
Cameroon 500 600 650 600 650 650
China 4,600 5,900 4,500 2,600 2,300 2,300
Cote d'Ivoire 1,300 1,350 1,500 1,400 1,450 1,350
European Union 1,816 1,990 1,922 2,159 2,200 2,200
Ghana 700 650 830 900 950 900
Guinea 650 600 865 510 650 650
Indonesia 1,050 350 2,350 600 1,000 1,000
Iran 1,100 1,400 1,250 1,200 1,050 1,050
Iraq 930 1,060 1,200 1,220 1,150 1,150
Japan 685 678 670 678 685 685
Kenya 500 625 600 575 700 625
Korea, South 313 412 377 297 550 550
Malaysia 823 900 800 1,000 1,000 1,000
Mexico 731 913 776 730 785 785
Mozambique 625 710 550 620 650 650
Nepal 530 535 700 600 800 800
Nigeria 2,100 2,500 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200
Philippines 800 1,200 2,500 2,900 2,500 2,500
Saudi Arabia 1,260 1,195 1,290 1,425 1,450 1,100
Senegal 980 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,050 950
South Africa 958 1,054 1,071 966 1,050 1,000
United Arab Emirates 670 700 775 850 925 875
Others 11,893 16,078 15,052 14,078 13,498 13,788
Subtotal 37,170 44,308 45,140 40,549 40,663 39,828
Unaccounted 2,298 3,060 1,620 1,981 2,822 1,942
United States 767 787 916 981 1,025 1,025
World Total 40,235 48,155 47,676 43,511 44,510 42,795
TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: 2017/18 is calendar year 2018, 2016/17 is calendar year 2017, and so on.
none
Milled Production
Bangladesh 34,500 34,578 32,650 34,909 35,850 35,850
Brazil 7,210 8,383 8,204 7,140 7,140 7,140
Burma 12,160 12,650 13,200 13,200 13,300 12,700
Cambodia 4,931 5,256 5,554 5,742 5,688 5,200
China 148,499 147,766 148,873 148,490 146,730 146,730
Egypt 4,000 4,800 4,300 2,800 4,300 4,300
India 104,408 109,698 112,760 116,480 118,000 118,000
Indonesia 36,200 36,858 37,000 36,700 36,500 36,500
Japan 7,876 7,929 7,787 7,657 7,800 7,611
Korea, South 4,327 4,197 3,972 3,868 3,744 3,744
Nigeria 3,941 4,536 4,725 4,788 4,900 4,900
Pakistan 6,802 6,849 7,500 7,300 7,500 7,500
Philippines 11,008 11,686 12,235 11,732 12,000 11,400
Thailand 15,800 19,200 20,577 20,340 18,500 18,000
Vietnam 27,584 27,400 27,657 27,344 28,300 27,369
Others 41,452 42,181 42,269 43,473 43,193 43,273
Subtotal 470,698 483,967 489,263 491,963 493,445 490,217
United States 6,131 7,117 5,659 7,107 5,864 5,864
World Total 476,829 491,084 494,922 499,070 499,309 496,081
none
Consumption and Residual
Bangladesh 35,100 35,000 35,200 35,400 35,800 35,800
Brazil 7,900 7,850 7,750 7,450 7,500 7,450
Burma 10,400 10,000 10,200 10,250 10,550 10,450
Cambodia 3,900 4,000 4,200 4,300 4,300 4,300
China 141,028 141,761 142,509 142,720 142,930 142,930
Egypt 3,900 4,300 4,200 4,150 4,350 4,350
India 93,451 95,838 98,669 99,160 102,000 102,300
Indonesia 37,850 37,800 38,100 38,100 37,800 37,800
Japan 8,806 8,730 8,600 8,400 8,400 8,300
Korea, South 4,212 4,435 4,746 4,572 4,450 4,100
Nepal 3,353 4,010 3,980 4,360 4,280 4,280
Nigeria 6,400 6,700 6,900 7,000 6,800 6,500
Philippines 12,900 12,900 13,250 14,100 14,400 14,400
Thailand 9,100 12,000 11,000 11,500 11,700 11,500
Vietnam 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,200 21,500 21,500
Others 63,284 65,761 66,911 68,544 69,098 69,051
Subtotal 465,938 479,354 477,984 481,325 488,101 485,965
United States 3,590 4,230 4,298 4,565 4,224 4,224
World Total 469,528 483,584 482,282 485,890 492,325 490,189
none
Ending Stocks
Bangladesh 1,205 854 1,500 1,405 1,511 1,511
China 88,000 98,500 109,000 115,000 118,000 118,000
India 18,400 20,550 22,600 29,500 35,000 35,000
Indonesia 3,509 2,915 4,163 3,361 3,059 3,059
Japan 2,552 2,410 2,223 2,046 1,971 1,972
Philippines 2,117 2,003 2,288 3,520 3,720 3,120
Thailand 8,403 4,238 3,009 4,537 3,787 3,787
Others 16,730 16,959 16,815 14,918 14,302 14,217
Subtotal 140,916 148,429 161,598 174,287 181,350 180,666
United States 1,475 1,462 933 1,424 953 937
World Total 142,391 149,891 162,531 175,711 182,303 181,603
Mar Apr
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20
TY Imports none
North America 1,854 2,056 2,075 2,132 2,235 2,235
Caribbean 1,102 1,146 1,068 1,076 1,257 1,162
South America 2,015 1,900 1,967 1,981 2,124 2,094
Other Europe 138 124 111 119 130 130
Former Soviet Union - 12 457 538 551 544 542 512
Middle East 5,686 6,219 6,432 6,616 6,540 6,085
North Africa 483 459 598 1,007 550 550
Sub-Saharan Africa 12,483 14,684 14,985 14,055 14,155 13,930
East Asia 6,097 7,486 6,015 4,202 4,185 4,185
South Asia 945 4,057 2,635 964 1,160 1,160
Southeast Asia 3,911 3,666 6,797 5,821 5,570 5,570
European Union 1,816 1,990 1,922 2,159 2,200 2,200
Total 37,937 45,095 46,056 41,530 41,688 40,853
Production none
North America 6,287 7,292 5,842 7,297 6,039 6,039
Caribbean 851 989 932 937 918 908
South America 15,763 16,790 16,834 15,760 15,463 15,560
European Union - 28 2,050 2,087 2,030 1,977 1,968 1,985
Former Soviet Union - 12 1,257 1,259 1,225 1,275 1,341 1,341
Middle East 2,160 2,549 2,743 2,623 2,903 2,903
North Africa 4,044 4,837 4,340 2,844 4,339 4,339
Sub-Saharan Africa 16,283 17,557 17,510 18,697 18,783 18,874
East Asia 163,729 162,710 163,567 162,556 160,770 160,581
South Asia 152,133 156,871 158,688 165,779 167,977 167,977
Southeast Asia 111,409 116,821 120,044 118,564 118,164 114,945
Total 476,829 491,084 494,922 499,070 499,309 496,081
Domestic Consumption none
North America 4,817 5,499 5,576 5,890 5,559 5,559
Central America 1,276 1,295 1,301 1,314 1,358 1,348
Caribbean 1,989 2,072 1,950 2,056 2,095 2,040
South America 14,990 14,894 15,024 14,892 14,873 14,905
European Union - 28 3,550 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 3,900
Former Soviet Union - 12 1,474 1,521 1,571 1,561 1,608 1,628
Middle East 8,352 8,654 9,087 9,285 9,575 9,135
North Africa 4,279 4,724 4,620 4,521 4,739 4,739
Sub-Saharan Africa 28,570 30,926 31,671 33,091 32,852 32,958
East Asia 157,483 158,111 158,948 158,719 158,810 158,360
South Asia 138,570 141,556 144,599 145,657 148,837 149,137
Southeast Asia 101,770 103,895 103,424 104,477 105,376 105,026
Total 467,674 477,315 482,013 485,771 490,082 489,235
Ending Stocks none
North America 1,602 1,634 1,084 1,563 1,117 1,101
Central America 318 339 264 292 249 256
Caribbean 277 330 363 373 393 393
South America 1,781 2,047 2,047 1,576 1,578 1,409
European Union - 28 1,183 1,188 1,176 1,201 1,150 1,186
Middle East 1,082 1,129 1,129 1,012 955 940
North Africa 924 1,426 1,563 999 1,049 1,049
Sub-Saharan Africa 2,814 3,216 3,135 2,867 2,428 2,313
East Asia 92,626 103,262 113,388 118,794 121,430 121,925
South Asia 21,576 23,171 25,840 32,345 37,716 37,716
Southeast Asia 17,959 11,774 12,189 14,491 14,021 13,098
Oceania 77 208 217 41 35 35
Total 142,391 149,891 162,531 175,711 182,303 181,603
NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are
reported using local marketing years.