Linear Regression
Chapter 7
Introduction (Slide 1 of 2)
• Managerial decisions are often based on the relationship between two or
more variables:
• Example: After considering the relationship between advertising
expenditures and sales, a marketing manager might attempt to predict sales
for a given level of advertising expenditures.
• Sometimes a manager will rely on intuition to judge how two variables
are related.
• If data can be obtained, a statistical procedure called regression analysis
can be used to develop an equation showing how the variables are
related.
Introduction (Slide 2 of 2)
• Dependent variable or response: Variable being predicted.
• Independent variables or predictor variables: Variables being used
to predict the value of the dependent variable.
• Simple linear regression: A regression analysis for which any one
unit change in the independent variable, x, is assumed to result in
the same change in the dependent variable, y.
• Multiple linear regression: A regression analysis involving two or
more independent variables.
Simple Linear Regression Model
Regression Model
Estimated Regression Equation
Simple Linear Regression Model (Slide 1 of 5)
Regression Model:
• The equation that describes how y is related to x and an error term.
• Parameters: The characteristics of the population, 0 and 1 .
• Random variable: Error term, .
• The error term accounts for the variability in y that cannot be explained by
the linear relationship between x and y.
Simple Linear Regression Model (Slide 2 of 5)
Estimated Regression Equation:
• The parameter values are usually not known and must be estimated using
sample data.
• Sample statistics (denoted b0 and b1 ) are computed as estimates of the
population parameters 0 and 1 .
• Substituting the values of the sample statistics b0 and b1 for 0 and 1 in
the regression equation and dropping the error term, we obtain the
estimated regression for simple linear regression.
Simple Linear Regression Model (Slide 3 of 5)
• In the estimated simple linear regression equation:
ŷ b0 b1 x
• ŷ Estimate for the mean value of y corresponding to a given value of x.
• b0 Estimated y-intercept.
• b1 Estimated slope.
• The graph of the estimated simple linear regression equation is called the
estimated regression line.
• In general, ŷ is the point estimator of E y x , the mean value of y for a
given value of x.
Simple Linear Regression Model (Slide 4 of 5)
Figure 7.1: The Estimation
Process in Simple Linear
Regression
Simple Linear Regression Model (Slide 5 of 5)
Figure 7.2: Possible Regression Lines in Simple Linear Regression
Least Squares Method
Least Squares Estimates of the Regression Parameters
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated Regression Equation
Least Squares Method (Slide 1 of 15)
• Least squares method: A procedure for using sample data to find
the estimated regression equation.
• Determine the values of b0 and b1 .
• Interpretation of b0 and b1 :
• The slope b1 is the estimated change in the mean of the dependent
variable y that is associated with a one unit increase in the
independent variable x.
• The y-intercept b0 is the estimated value of the dependent variable y
when the independent variable x is equal to 0.
Least Squares Method (Slide 2 of 15)
y = Travel Time
Table 7.1: Miles Traveled Driving Assignment i x = Miles Traveled (hours)
and Travel Time for 10 1 100 9.3
Butler Trucking Company 2 50 4.8
Driving Assignments
3 50 8.9
4 100 6.5
5 50 4.2
6 80 6.2
7 75 7.4
8 65 6.0
9 90 7.6
10 90 6.1
Least Squares Method (Slide 3 of 15)
Figure 7.3: Scatter
Chart of Miles
Traveled and Travel
Time for Sample of
10 Butler Trucking
Company Driving
Assignments
Least Squares Method (Slide 4 of 15)
Least Squares Method (Slide 5 of 15)
• i th residual: The error made using the regression model to estimate the
mean value of the dependent variable for the i th observation.
• Denoted as ei yi yˆi .
• Hence,
n n
min yi yˆi min ei 2
2
i 1 i 1
• We are finding the regression that minimizes the sum of squared
errors.
Least Squares Method (Slide 6 of 15)
Least Squares Estimates of the Regression Parameters:
• For the Butler Trucking Company data in Table 7.1:
• Estimated slope of b1 0.0678.
• y-intercept of b0 1.2739.
• The estimated simple linear regression model:
yˆ 1.2739 0.0678 x1
Least Squares Method (Slide 7 of 15)
• Interpretation of b1 : If the length of a driving assignment were 1 unit
(1 mile) longer, the mean travel time for that driving assignment
would be 0.0678 units (0.0678 hours, or approximately 4 minutes)
longer.
• Interpretation of b0 : If the driving distance for a driving assignment
was 0 units (0 miles), the mean travel time would be 1.2739 units
(1.2739 hours, or approximately 76 minutes).
Least Squares Method (Slide 8 of 15)
• Experimental region: The range of values of the independent
variables in the data used to estimate the model.
• The regression model is valid only over this region.
• Extrapolation: Prediction of the value of the dependent variable
outside the experimental region.
• It is risky.
Least Squares Method (Slide 9 of 15)
• Butler Trucking Company example: Use the estimated model and the
known values for miles traveled for a driving assignment (x) to estimate
mean travel time in hours.
• For example, the first driving assignment in Table 7.1 has a value for miles
traveled of x 100.
• The mean travel time in hours for this driving assignment is estimated to be:
yˆ1 1.2739 0.0678 100 8.0539
• The resulting residual of the estimate is:
e1 y1 yˆ1 9.3 8.0539 1.2461
Least Squares Method (Slide 10 of 15)
Table 7.2: Predicted Travel Time and Residuals for 10 Butler Trucking
Company Driving Assignments
Least Squares Method (Slide 11 of 15)
Figure 7.4: Scatter Chart of
Miles Traveled and Travel
Time for Butler Trucking
Company Driving
Assignments with
Regression Line
Superimposed
Least Squares Method (Slide 12 of 15)
Figure 7.5: A Geometric
Interpretation of the
Least Squares Method
Least Squares Method (Slide 13 of 15)
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated Regression
Equation:
• After constructing a scatter chart with Excel’s chart tools:
1. Right-click on any data point and select Add Trendline.
2. In the Format Trendline task pane, in the Trendline Options area:
• Select Linear.
• Select Display Equation on chart.
Least Squares Method (Slide 14 of 15)
Figure 7.6: Scatter
Chart and
Estimated
Regression Line
for Butler Trucking
Company
Least Squares Method (Slide 15 of 15)
Slope Equation y-Intercept Equation
n
xi x yi y b0 y b1 x
b1 i 1
n
xi x
2
i 1
xi value of the independent variable for the ith observation.
yi value of the dependent variable for the ith observation.
x mean value for the independent variable.
y mean value for the dependent variable.
n total number of observations.
Assessing the Fit of the Simple
Linear Regression Model
The Sums of Squares
The Coefficient of Determination
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient of Determination
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 1 of 10)
The Sums of Squares:
• Sum of squares due to error: The value of SSE is a measure of the error in using the
estimated regression equation to predict the values of the dependent variable in the
sample.
From Table 7.2, n
SSE ei 2 8.0288
i 1
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 2 of 10)
Figure 7.7: The
Sample Mean y
as a Predictor of
Travel Time for
Butler Trucking
Company
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 3 of 10)
• Table 7.3 shows the sum of squared deviations obtained by using
the sample mean y 6.7 to predict the value of travel time in hours
for each driving assignment in the sample.
• Butler Trucking Example: For the ith driving assignment in the
sample, the difference yi y provides a measure of the error
involved in using y to predict travel time for the ith driving
assignment.
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 4 of 10)
• The corresponding sum of squares is called the total sum of
squares (SST).
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 5 of 10)
Table 7.3:
Calculations for
the Sum of
Squares Total for
the Butler
Trucking Simple
Linear Regression
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 6 of 10)
Figure 7.8:
Deviations About
the Estimated
Regression Line and
the Line y y
for the Third Butler
Trucking Company
Driving Assignment
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 7 of 10)
• Measures how much the ŷ values on the estimated regression line deviate
from y .
• Relation between SST, SSR, and SSE:
SST = SSR + SSE
where
• SST = total sum of squares
• SSR = sum of squares due to regression
• SSE = sum of squares due to error.
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 8 of 10)
The Coefficient of Determination:
• The ratio SSR/SST used to evaluate the goodness of fit for the estimated
regression equation; this ratio is called the coefficient of determination
and is denoted by r 2 .
• Take values between zero and one.
• Interpreted as the percentage of the total sum of squares that can be
explained by using the estimated regression equation.
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 9 of 10)
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient of Determination:
• To compute the coefficient of determination using the scatter chart in
Figure 7.3:
1. Right-click on any data point in the scatter chart and select Add
Trendline.
2. When the Format Trendline task pane appears: Select Display R-
squared value on chart in the Trendline Options area.
Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear
Regression Model (Slide 10 of 10)
Figure 7.9: Scatter
Chart and Estimated
Regression Line with
Coefficient of
Determination r 2
for Butler Trucking
Company
The Multiple Regression Model
Regression Model
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation
Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple Regression Equation
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 1 of 11)
Regression Model:
• y = dependent variable.
• x1 , x2 , . . ., xq = independent variables.
• 0 , 1 , 2 , . . . , q = parameters.
• = error term (accounts for the variability in y that cannot be explained
by the linear effect of the q independent variables).
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 2 of 11)
Regression Model (cont.):
• Interpretation of slope coefficient
j : Represents the change in the mean
value of the dependent variable y that corresponds to a one unit increase
in the independent variable x j , holding the values of all other
independent variables in the model constant.
• The multiple regression equation that describes how the mean value of y
is related to x1 , x2 , . . ., xq :
E y x2 , x2 , . . . , xq 0 1 x1 2 x2 q xq
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 3 of 11)
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation:
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 4 of 11)
Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression:
• The least squares method is used to develop the estimated multiple
regression equation:
, bq that satisfy min i 1 yi yˆi min i 1 ei2 .
n 2 n
• Finding b0 , b1 , b2 ,
• Uses sample data to provide the values of b0 , b1 , b2 , , bq that minimize the
sum of squared residuals.
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 5 of 11)
Figure 7:10: The
Estimation Process for
Multiple Regression
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 6 of 11)
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression:
• The estimated simple linear regression equation,
yˆi 1.2739 0.0678 xi .
• The linear effect of the number of miles traveled explains 66.41%
r 2 0.6641 of the variability in travel time in the sample data.
• This implies, 33.59% of the variability in sample travel times remains
unexplained
• The managers might want to consider adding one or more independent
variables, such as number of deliveries, to the model to explain some of
the remaining variability in the dependent variable.
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 7 of 11)
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression (cont.):
• Estimated multiple linear regression with two independent
variables:
ŷ b0 b 1 x1 b2 x2
• ŷ Estimated mean travel time.
• x1 Distance traveled.
• x2 Number of deliveries.
• The SST, SSR, SSE and R2 are computed using the formulas discussed
earlier.
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 8 of 11)
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple
Regression Equation:
Figure 7.11: Data Analysis Tools Box
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 9 of 11)
Figure 7.12: Regression
Dialog Box
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 10 of 11)
Figure 7.13: Excel Regression Output for the Butler Trucking Company
with Miles and Deliveries as Independent Variables
The Multiple Regression Model (Slide 11 of 11)
Figure 7.14: Graph of
the Regression
Equation for Multiple
Regression Analysis
with Two
Independent
Variables
Inference and Regression
Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least Squares Regression Model
Testing Individual Regression Parameters
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables
Multicollinearity
Inference and Regression (Slide 1 of 15)
• Statistical inference: Process of making estimates and drawing
conclusions about one or more characteristics of a population (the value
of one or more parameters) through the analysis of sample data drawn
from the population.
• In regression, inference is commonly used to estimate and draw
conclusions about:
• The regression parameters 0 , 1 , 2 , , q .
• The mean value and/or the predicted value of the dependent variable y for
specific values of the independent variables x1* , x2* , , xq* .
• Consider both hypothesis testing and interval estimation.
Inference and Regression (Slide 2 of 15)
Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least Squares
Regression Model:
• For any given combination of values of the independent variables
x1 , x2 , , xq , the population of potential error terms is normally
distributed with a mean of 0 and a constant variance.
• The values of are statistically independent.
Inference and Regression (Slide 3 of 15)
Figure 7.15: Illustration of
the Conditions for Valid
Inference in Regression
Inference and Regression (Slide 4 of 15)
Figure 7.16: Example of a Random Error Pattern in a Scatter Chart of
Residuals and Predicted Values of the Dependent Variable
Inference and Regression (Slide 5 of 15)
Figure 7.17: Examples of
Diagnostic Scatter Charts
of Residuals from Four
Regressions
Inference and Regression (Slide 6 of 15)
Figure 7.18: Excel Residual Plots for the Butler Trucking Company
Multiple Regression
Inference and Regression (Slide 7 of 15)
Figure 7.19: Table of the
First Several Predicted
Values ŷ and Residuals e
Generated by the Excel
Regression Tool
Inference and Regression (Slide 8 of 15)
Figure 7.20: Scatter
Chart of Predicted
Values ŷ and
Residuals e
Inference and Regression (Slide 9 of 15)
Testing Individual Regression Parameters:
• To determine whether statistically significant relationships exist between
the dependent variable y and each of the independent variables
x1 , x2 , , xq individually.
• If a j 0, there is no linear relationship between the dependent variable y
and the independent variable x j .
• If a j 0, there is a linear relationship between y and x j .
Inference and Regression (Slide 10 of 15)
Testing Individual Regression Parameters (cont.):
• Use a t test to test the hypothesis that a regression parameter
j
is zero.
bj
• The test statistic for this t test, t .
sbj
sbj Estimated standard deviation of bj .
• As the magnitude of t increases (as t deviates from zero in either
direction), we are more likely to reject the hypothesis that the regression
parameter j is zero.
Inference and Regression (Slide 11 of 15)
Testing Individual Regression Parameters (cont.):
• Confidence interval can be used to test whether each of the regression parameters
0 , 1 , 2 , , q is equal to zero.
• Confidence interval: An estimate of a population parameter that
provides an interval believed to contain the value of the parameter at
some level of confidence.
• Confidence level: Indicates how frequently interval estimates based on
samples of the same size taken from the same population using identical
sampling techniques will contain the true value of the parameter we are
estimating.
Inference and Regression (Slide 12 of 15)
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables:
• If practical experience dictates that the nonsignificant independent
variable has a relationship with the dependent variable, the independent
variable should be left in the model.
• If the model sufficiently explains the dependent variable without the
nonsignificant independent variable, then consider rerunning the
regression without the nonsignificant independent variable.
• The appropriate treatment of the inclusion or exclusion of the y-intercept
when b0 is not statistically significant may require special consideration.
Inference and Regression (Slide 13 of 15)
Multicollinearity:
• Multicollinearity refers to the correlation among the independent
variables in multiple regression analysis.
• In t tests for the significance of individual parameters, the difficulty
caused by multicollinearity is that it is possible to conclude that a
parameter associated with one of the multicollinear independent
variables is not significantly different from zero when the independent
variable actually has a strong relationship with the dependent variable.
• This problem is avoided when there is little correlation among the
independent variables.
Inference and Regression (Slide 14 of 15)
Figure 7.21: Excel Regression Output for the Butler Trucking Company
with Miles and Gasoline Consumption as Independent Variables
Inference and Regression (Slide 15 of 15)
Figure 7.22: Scatter
Chart of Miles and
Gasoline Consumed for
Butler Trucking
Company
Big Data and Regression (Slide 1 of 2)
Multicollinearity (cont.):
• Testing for an overall regression relationship:
• Use an F test based on the F probability distribution.
• If the F test leads us to reject the hypothesis that the values of b1 , b2 , , bq
are all zero:
• Conclude that there is an overall regression relationship.
• Otherwise, conclude that there is no overall regression relationship.
Big Data and Regression (Slide 2 of 2)
Multicollinearity (cont.):
• Testing for an overall regression relationship (cont.):
• The test statistic generated by the sample data for this test is:
SSR q
F
SSE n q 1
• SSR = Sum of squares due to regression.
• SSE = Sum of squares due to error.
• q = the number of independent variables in the regression model.
• n = the number of observations in the sample.
• Larger values of F provide stronger evidence of an overall regression
relationship.
Categorical Independent
Variables
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour
Interpreting the Parameters
More Complex Categorical Variables
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 1 of 10)
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour:
• Dependent variable, y: Travel time.
• Independent variables: miles traveled x1 and number of deliveries x2 .
• Categorical variable: rush hour x3 0 if an assignment did not include
travel on the congested segment of highway during afternoon rush hour.
• Categorical variable: rush hour x3 1 if an assignment included travel
on the congested segment of highway during afternoon rush hour.
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 2 of 10)
Figure 7.23: Histograms of the Residuals for Driving Assignments That
Included Travel on a Congested Segment of a Highway During the Afternoon
Rush Hour and Residuals for Driving Assignments That Did Not
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 3 of 10)
Figure 7.24: Excel
Data and Output for
Butler Trucking with
Miles Traveled (x1 ),
Number of Deliveries
(x2 ), and the Highway
Rush Hour Dummy
Variable (x3 ), as the
Independent Variables
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 4 of 10)
Interpreting the Parameters:
• The model estimates that travel time increases by:
• 0.0672 hours for every increase of 1 mile traveled, holding constant the
number of deliveries and whether the driving assignment route requires
the driver to travel on the congested segment of a highway during the
afternoon rush hour period.
• 0.6735 hours for every delivery, holding constant the number of miles
traveled and whether the driving assignment route requires the driver to
travel on the congested segment of a highway during the afternoon rush
hour period.
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 5 of 10)
Interpreting the Parameters (cont.):
• The model estimates that travel time increases by (cont.):
• 0.9980 hours if the driving assignment route requires the driver to travel on
the congested segment of a highway during the afternoon rush hour period,
holding constant the number of miles traveled and the number of
deliveries.
• R 2 0.8838 indicates that the regression model explains approximately
88.4% of the variability in travel time for the driving assignments in the
sample.
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 6 of 10)
Interpreting the Parameters (cont.):
• Compare the regression model for the case when
x3 0 and when
x3 1.
• When x3 0:
• When x3 1:
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 7 of 10)
More Complex Categorical Variables:
• If a categorical variable has k levels,
k 1 dummy variables are required,
with each dummy variable corresponding to one of the levels of the
categorical variable and coded as 0 or 1.
• Example:
• Suppose a manufacturer of vending machines organized the sales territories
for a particular state into three regions: A, B, and C.
• The managers want to use regression analysis to help predict the number of
vending machines sold per week.
• Suppose the managers believe sales region is one of the important factors
in predicting the number of units sold.
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 8 of 10)
More Complex Categorical Variables (cont.):
• Example (cont.):
• Sales region: categorical variable with three levels (A, B, and C).
• Number of dummy variables = 3 2 1.
• Each variable can be coded 0 or 1 as:
x1 1 if sales Region B; 0 if otherwise.
x2 1 if sales Region C; 0 if otherwise.
• The values of x1 and x2 are:
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 9 of 10)
More Complex Categorical Variables (cont.):
• Example (cont.):
• The regression equation relating the mean number of units sold to the
dummy variables is written as:
ŷ b0 b1 x1 b2 x2
• Observations corresponding to Region A correspond to x1 0, x2 0,
so the estimated mean number of units sold in Region A is:
yˆ b0 b1 0 b2 0 b0
Categorical Independent Variables (Slide 10 of 10)
More Complex Categorical Variables (cont.):
• Example (cont.):
• Observations corresponding to Region B are coded x1 1, x2 0,
so the estimated mean number of units sold in Region B is:
yˆ b0 b1 1 b2 0 b0 b1
• Observations corresponding to Region C are coded x1 0, x2 1,
so the estimated mean number of units sold in Region C is:
yˆ b0 b1 0 b2 1 b0 b2
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships
Quadratic Regression Models
Piecewise Linear Regression Models
Interaction Between Independent Variables
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 1 of 16)
Figure 7.25:
Scatter Chart for
the Reynolds
Example
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 2 of 16)
Figure 7.26:
Excel Regression
Output for the
Reynolds
Example
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 3 of 16)
Figure 7.27: Scatter
Chart of the
Residuals and
Predicted Values
of the Dependent
Variable for the
Reynolds Simple
Linear Regression
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 4 of 16)
Quadratic Regression Models:
• In the Reynolds example, to account for the curvilinear relationship
between months employed and scales sold, we could include the square
of the number of months the salesperson has been employed as a second
independent variable.
• An estimated regression equation given by:
• Equation (7.18) corresponds to a quadratic regression model.
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 5 of 16)
Figure 7.28:
Relationships That Can
Be Fit with a Quadratic
Regression Model
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 6 of 16)
Figure 7.29: Excel Data for
the Reynolds Quadratic
Regression Model
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 7 of 16)
Figure 7.30: Excel Output for the Reynolds Quadratic Regression Model
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 8 of 16)
Figure 7.31:
Scatter Chart of
the Residuals and
Predicted Values
of the Dependent
Variable for the
Reynolds
Quadratic
Regression
Model
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 9 of 16)
Piecewise Linear Regression Models:
• For the Reynolds data, as an alternative to a quadratic regression model:
• Recognize that below some value of Months Employed, the relationship
between Months Employed and Sales appears to be positive and linear.
• Whereas the relationship between Months Employed and Sales appears to
be negative and linear for the remaining observations.
• Piecewise linear regression model: This model will allow us to fit these
relationships as two linear regressions that are joined at the value of
Months at which the relationship between Months Employed and Sales
changes.
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 10 of 16)
Piecewise Linear Regression Models (cont.):
• Knot: The value of the independent variable at which the relationship
between dependent variable and independent variable changes; also
called breakpoint.
• For the Reynolds data, knot is the value of the independent variable
Months Employed at which the relationship between Months Employed
and Sales changes.
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 11 of 16)
Figure 7.32:
Possible Position of
k
Knot x
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 12 of 16)
Piecewise Linear Regression Models (cont.):
• Define a dummy variable:
x1 Months.
x k value of the knot (90 months for the Reynolds example).
xk the knot dummy variable.
• Then fit the following estimated regression equation:
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 13 of 16)
Figure 7.33: Data and Excel
Output for the Reynolds
Piecewise Linear
Regression Model
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 14 of 16)
Interaction Between Independent Variables:
• Interaction: This occurs when the relationship between the dependent
variable and one independent variable is different at various values of a
second independent variable.
• The estimated multiple linear regression equation is given as:
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 15 of 16)
Figure 7.34: Mean Unit
Sales (1,000s) as a Function
of Selling Price and
Advertising Expenditures
Modeling Nonlinear Relationships (Slide 16 of 16)
Figure 7.35: Excel
Output for the Tyler
Personal Care Linear
Regression Model with
Interaction
Model Fitting
Variable Selection Procedures
Overfitting
Model Fitting (Slide 1 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures:
• Special procedures are sometimes employed to select the independent
variables to include in the regression model.
• Iterative procedures: At each step of the procedure, a single independent
variable is added or removed and the new model is evaluated. Iterative
procedures include:
• Backward elimination.
• Forward selection.
• Stepwise selection.
• Best subsets procedure: Evaluates regression models involving different
subsets of the independent variables.
Model Fitting (Slide 2 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures (cont.):
• Backward elimination procedure:
• Begins with the regression model that includes all of the independent
variables under consideration.
• At each step, backward elimination considers the removal of an
independent variable according to some criterion.
• Stops when all independent variables in the model are significant at a
specified level of significance.
Model Fitting (Slide 3 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures (cont.):
• Forward selection procedure:
• Begins with none of the independent variables under consideration
included in the regression model.
• At each step, forward selection considers the addition of an independent
variable according to some criterion.
• Stops when there are no independent variables not currently in the model
that meet the criterion for being added to the regression model.
Model Fitting (Slide 4 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures (cont.):
• Stepwise selection procedure:
• Begins with none of the independent variables under consideration
included in the regression model.
• The analyst establishes both a criterion for allowing independent variables
to enter the model and a criterion for allowing independent variables to
remain in the model.
• To initiate the procedure, the most significant independent variable is
added to the empty model if its level of significance satisfies the entering
threshold.
Model Fitting (Slide 5 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures (cont.):
• Stepwise selection procedure (cont.):
• Each subsequent step involves two intermediate steps:
• First, the remaining independent variables not in the current model are
evaluated, and the most significant one is added to the model.
• Then the independent variables in the current model are evaluated, and the
least significant one is removed.
• Stops when no independent variables not currently in the model have a
level of significance for remaining in the regression model.
Model Fitting (Slide 6 of 11)
Variable Selection Procedures (cont.):
• Best subsets procedure:
• Simple linear regressions for each of the independent variables under
consideration are generated, and then the multiple regressions with all
combinations of two independent variables under consideration are
generated, and so on.
• Once a regression model has been generated for every possible subset of
the independent variables under consideration, the entire collection of
regression models can be compared and evaluated.
Model Fitting (Slide 7 of 11)
Overfitting:
• Overfitting generally results from creating an overly complex model to
explain idiosyncrasies in the sample data.
• In regression analysis, this often results from the use of complex
functional forms or independent variables that do not have meaningful
relationships with the dependent variable.
• If a model is overfit to the sample data, it will perform better on the
sample data used to fit the model than it will on other data from the
population.
• Thus, an overfit model can be misleading about its predictive capability
and its interpretation.
Model Fitting (Slide 8 of 11)
Overfitting (cont.):
• How does one avoid overfitting a model?
• Use only independent variables that you expect to have real and meaningful
relationships with the dependent variable.
• Use complex models, such as quadratic models and piecewise linear
regression models, only when you have a reasonable expectation that such
complexity provides a more accurate depiction of what you are modeling.
• Do not let software dictate your model; use iterative modeling procedures,
such as the stepwise and best-subsets procedures, only for guidance and
not to generate your final model.
Model Fitting (Slide 9 of 11)
Overfitting (cont.):
• How does one avoid overfitting a model? (cont.):
• If you have access to a sufficient quantity of data, assess your model on data
other than the sample data that were used to generate the model (this is
referred to as cross-validation).
• Three possible ways to execute cross-validation:
• Holdout method.
• k-fold cross-validation.
• Leave-one-out cross-validation.
Model Fitting (Slide 10 of 11)
Overfitting (cont.):
• Holdout method: The sample data are randomly divided into mutually
exclusive and collectively exhaustive training and validation sets.
• Training set: The data set used to build the candidate models that appear to
make practical sense.
• Validation set: The set of data used to compare model performances and
ultimately select a model for predicting values of the dependent variable.
Model Fitting (Slide 11 of 11)
Overfitting (cont.):
• k-fold cross-validation: The sample data are randomly divided into k equal-sized, mutually
exclusive, and collectively exhaustive subsets called folds, and k iterations are executed.
• Leave-one-out cross-validation: For a sample of n observations, an iteration consists of
estimating the model on
n 1 observations and
evaluating the model on the single observation that was omitted from
the training data.
Big Data and Regression
Inference and Very Large Samples
Model Selection
Big Data and Regression (Slide 1 of 6)
Inference and Very Large Samples:
• Virtually all relationships between independent variables and the
dependent variable will be statistically significant if the sample is
sufficiently large.
• That is, if the sample size is very large, there will be little difference in the
bj values generated by different random samples.
Big Data and Regression (Slide 2 of 6)
Figure 7.36: Excel Regression Output for Credit Card Company Example
Big Data and Regression (Slide 3 of 6)
Table 7.4: Regression Parameter Estimates and the Corresponding p
values for 10 Multiple Regression Models, Each Estimated on 50
Observations from the LargeCredit Data
Big Data and Regression (Slide 4 of 6)
Figure 7.37: Excel Regression Output for Credit Card Company Example
after Adding Number of Hours per Week Spent Watching Television
Big Data and Regression (Slide 5 of 6)
Model Selection:
• When dealing with large samples, it is often more difficult to discern the
most appropriate model.
• If developing a regression model for explanatory purposes, the practical
significance of the estimated regression coefficients should be considered
when interpreting the model and considering which variables to keep in
the model.
• If developing a regression model to make future predictions, the selection
of the independent variables to include in the regression model should be
based on the predictive accuracy on observations that have not been used
to train the model.
Big Data and Regression (Slide 6 of 6)
Figure 7.38: Predictive Accuracy on LargeCredit Validation Set
Prediction with Regression
Prediction with Regression (Slide 1 of 2)
• In addition to the point estimate, there are two types of interval
estimates associated with the regression equation:
• A confidence interval is an interval estimate of the mean y value given
values of the independent variables.
• A prediction interval is an interval estimate of an individual y value
given values of the independent variables.
Prediction with Regression (Slide 2 of 2)
Table 7.5: Predicted Values and 95% Confidence Intervals and
Prediction Intervals for 10 New Butler Trucking Routes
