ENGINEERING

PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
Tutorial 3
2017/2018

1
 PERT
Equipment Equipment testing
installation and modification
1 4
Final
6,8,10 2,4,12 System
debugging
training
System 10
development 8
Manual 1,4,7
2 3,7,11
Start testing Finish
3,6,9
5 11
2,3,4 9
Position 1,10,13
recruiting 2,4,6
Job Training
System
3 6 changeover
System
1,3,5 testing
3,4,5

Orientation
7
2,2,2

2
 tp + 4 tm + to
Mean (expected time): te =
6

Variance: Vt = 2 =
tp - to
6

x-
Z=


Where;  = te = project mean time

3
 TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITYOptimistic Most likelyPessimistic t б2

1 6 8 10 8 0.44
2 3 6 9 6 1.00
3 1 3 5 3 0.44
4 2 4 12 5 2.78
5 2 3 4 3 0.11
6 3 4 5 4 0.11
7 2 2 2 2 0.00
8 3 7 11 7 1.78
9 2 4 6 4 0.44
10 1 4 7 4 1.00
11 1 10 13 9 4.00

4
 1 0 8 4 8 13

8 1 9 5 16 21
10 13 17

1 0 3
Start 8 9 16 Finish
2 0 6
7 9 16
6 0 6 9
5 6 11 16
13 25
3 6 9 9 9
9 16 25
4 12 16
3 0 3 6 3 7

3 2 5 4 5 9 A ES EF

7 3 5
D LS LF
2 14 16

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ACTIVITY t б ES EF LS LF S

1 8 0.44 0 8 1 9 1
2 6 1.00 0 6 0 6 0
3 3 0.44 0 3 2 5 2
4 5 2.78 8 13 16 21 8
5 3 0.11 6 9 6 9 0
6 4 0.11 3 7 5 9 2
7 2 0.00 3 5 14 16 11
8 7 1.78 9 16 9 16 0
9 4 0.44 9 13 12 16 3
10 4 1.00 13 17 21 25 8
11 9 4.00 16 25 16 25 0

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 Total project variance

б2= б22 + б52 + б82 + б112

7
Z-Probability Distribution Table

8
 What is the probability that the project is
completed within 30 weeks?
x-
 2 = 6.89 weeks Z =

 = 6.89 = 30 - 25
2.62
 = 2.62 weeks
= 1.91

From the Z table a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a probability of 0.9555

0.96 − 0.95 2.0 − 1.80

X = 0.9555

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 What is the probability that the project is
completed within 22 weeks?
x-
 2 = 6.89 weeks Z =

 = 6.89 = 22 - 25
2.62
 = 2.62 weeks
= -1.14

From the Z table a Z score of -1.14 corresponds to a probability of 0.132

10