Roadmapping Convergence
Roadmapping Convergence
Richard E. Albright
Principal, Albright Strategy Group, LLC
Morristown, New Jersey, USA
realbright@[Link]
innovations? What customer and market drivers and de- “To-Do” Action Plan and Investment Strategy
velopment actions will be needed for commercialization? What resources and investments are needed? Plan projects with the
highest priorities. Are technology investments in the most important
What are gating factors to innovations and how can they areas? Identify and track risk areas.
be satisfied? What are the risks to innovation? (Sources: Tom Kappel; Phaal, R., Farrukh, C., and
Probert, D., Fast-start Technology Roadmapping;
Richard Albright.)
Time
Roadmapping provides a framework to answer these and “Know-when”
other questions. The scope of converging technologies is
Figure 1. A unifying four-part roadmap framework
so broad that we must define manageable sub-areas to
apply roadmapping methods to understanding and plot-
ting a future direction. This paper describes a roadmap A roadmap may be constructed beginning with the key
structure, some key elements of the structure, and pro- needs of the marketplace and customers – a market-pull
© 2003-2005 Albright Strategy Group, LLC 1 October 31, 2003 (Rev. 12/8/03, 1/15/04, 1/23/05)
perspective. Conversely, a roadmap may start with a key lution of the field in the technology roadmap. Finally,
technology and seek to define the market needs that could action plans for resource allocation or investment are de-
be served with the new technology – a technology-push fined to achieve the most important technological devel-
perspective. opments. Industry/government-sponsored roadmaps aim
to describe the future of an industry or sector along with
OBJECTIVES AND FORMATS FOR ROADMAPS actions to move the industry or sector forward. Industry
Within the four part architecture, the contents of road- structure and key directions are linked to technical chal-
maps with the most frequently encountered objectives are lenges and those challenges are linked to technology evo-
outlined in Figure 2. The figure lists the topics covered lution. Corporations and other organizations use road-
in each of the four parts of a roadmap for several types of mapping for a number of purposes such as product plan-
roadmaps. Science and technology roadmaps plot the ning, platform planning, or organizational capability
future development of a scientific or technical field. The planning. Product-technology or platform roadmaps lay
scope of the scientific field and current or potential appli- out the evolution of a product or platform over time. Ca-
cations of the technology are linked to key technical chal- pability roadmaps define the capabilities needed for suc-
lenges of the field. The structure, or architecture of the cess of a services business or for functional organization
field is defined and trends and potential discontinuities such as manufacturing or information technology.
are identified. The challenges are then linked to the evo-
© 2003-2005 Albright Strategy Group, LLC 2 October 31, 2003 (Rev. 12/8/03, 1/15/04, 1/23/05)
Risk Roadmap
Risk Categories
NO W +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG -TERM
Trends/Discontinuities Company
(x%; y%)
Competitor
(cost, contract, budget)
Potential to change the
Economic
basis of competition
com pletion events
Resource
Monitor
Risk r3 [.4]
Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]
Attack
Map to Elements
Risk r1 [.1]
Risk r2 [.6]
(e.g., organizational,
#1 execution)
Differentiatingcom pletion events
(x%; y%) Product/Process
Competitor
#2
Product Drivers Technology Roadmap
Product Elements Action Summary Differentiation
Customer or Complementor
Drivers
Product Drivers
(Attributes)
Technology Roadmap (x%; y%)
Ease of training and use
Value
TE2
TE3
LLeeaadd in
in: :
T ec h . A r e a
and Shared
Now Acquire + 2Q
P rod uct # 1 Pro du ct #1
+4Q
Partner +6Q Develop V is io n
Architecture &
D rive r #1
Applications
Prod uct d riv ers
C o re tec hnolog y C o m p et.
A re a #1 D r ive r #1
A rea
L as t Y r Now
Functionality
+ 1 Y e ar + 2 Y e ar + 3 Y ea r
TE4
V IS IO N Im po rt.
P o sition Technology
$?M / ?H Y Source
Architectural Fit PD1 W eig ht/siz e A re a #2
P ro duc t E 1
D r iver #1 , D r ive r #2
Baseband circuit
Interface A S IC 5735 C hip AC A Integrated CF CF A re a #3 P ro duc t #1
$?M /?H Y
DS P 1832
Interoperability C all signal
Ease of training and use PD2 proc. TE5S ingle
“S oft
CF C F
1. Nanostructured Materials “By Design;” B as eband
Elements
P rod uct # 1
A ud io codec CM O S CF C F
C hip R adio” .
A ud io f ro nt en d B ip ola r discretes C F C F A re a #4
Value PD3 8 bit C ISService/Support
2. Nanoelectronics,
Custom er Driver Optoelectronics
#1 And Magnetics H ou sing
M icrocontroller C 16 bit C IS C
1.7m m thick
m icrocon troller
1.4m m
TE6
1.2m m CF
CF C F
CF
$?M /?H Y
P rodu ct #4
CF
3. Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics Functionality PD4
PW B 6 laye r 1.5m m 6 layer 1m m 4 layer 0.8 m m Flex M old ed-in C F
A re a #5 $?M /?H Y
Science&Technology
E ase of u se TE7
Competitor #2 D isplay 2 -lin e LC D 4-lin e L C D 1/4 V G A T ouch V oic e CF C F
4. Nanoscale
Custom erProcesses
Driver #2For Environmental ImprovementCompetitor #1 Interoperability PD5 U ser in te rface N a vigatio n keys S e nsitiv e Interface CF CF
P rod uct # 4
IP &
P rodu ct #1
Service/Support PD6 B attery N iC d - 4.8V N iM H - 3.6V A ltern. tech. CF CF
6. Microcraft And Robotics. CF D river #1
Elements
Custom er Driver #3 P ow e r supply L inear - 50% efficien t S w itching (8 0% eff.) ~ 100% effic. CF
S ta n d a rd s
D river #2
P ow er am p M od ule M M IC -3V F C CF
RF
7. Nanoscale
Custom Instrumentation
er Driver #1 And Metrology PD7 R ad io T riple conv ers ion D ouble co nv ersion H om ody ne T unable,
H om o dyne
CF CF
D river #3
Nanotechnology
9. Nanostructures
Custom er DriverFor
Competitor #2
#2 Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And
Competitor #1
Explosive (CBRE) Detection And Protection ForO Homeland
Prioritize top to bottom V oice coders
D S P noise a lgorithm s
M icro phone
V celp
E xp an d er
IT U , Q ce lp1 3
IS -99 D ata B E R Im prov em ent/echo cancel.
F irs t ord er gradient (F O G ) S teering a rray CF
CF
CF
C F
CF
C F
Investment Summary
R ec eiv ers P iezoelectric N oise canc elling earpiece, m iniaturized CF CF
urCo
Custom er Driver #5
10-9 – 10-7 m
Defense. L M H Lag Lead
L E G E N D : T echnology S ource: Fund ing sta tu s: C = cu rrent, F= future
Custom er Driver #3 D ev el. S u pplier S upplie r Internal R esearch S taffed P lanne d U nplanned
-1 0 1
O urCoChallenges”
O urCo Lags Initiative: “Grand
Source: US National Nanotechnology Leads for 2003
Understand Physical, chemical,
and Action Plan
O urCo rel. position
Custom er Driver #4
biological properties, behavior
Innovations in materials,
Custom er Driver #5 Technology
electronics, medicine, -1
O urCo Lags
environment, biotechnology,
0
O urCo Leads
O urCo rel. position
1
• Biotechnology: The application of science and engi- KEY ELEMENTS OF A CONVERGENCE ROADMP
neering to the direct or indirect use of living organ- Three key supporting elements of a roadmap are
isms, or parts or products of living organisms, in their applications/needs, architecture, and growth trends.
natural or modified forms.
Applications or customer/market needs deter-
• Information Technology: Applied computer systems mine drivers for the roadmap. Drivers are usually of the
- both hardware and software, including networking following types: “Do more,” “do for less,” “do new
and telecommunications. things,” “do enabling things.” Applications are often
expressed in grand challenges for the field. For example
• Cognitive Science: The study of intelligence and
the table below lists the Grand Challenges for the US
intelligent systems, with particular reference to intel-
National Nanotechnology Initiative [8]:
ligent behavior as computation.
NNI Grand challenges (2001)
BENEFITS OF ROADMAPPING
• Nanostructured Materials “By Design;”
In roadmapping, a team is concerned with under-
• Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics
standing and planning for innovations, defined as “the
• Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics
introduction of something new.” For our roadmapping
purposes, this is taken to mean new technology put into • Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement
practice and widespread use. A technology may be in- • Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage
vented, but will not be an innovation until widely applied. • Microcraft And Robotics
• Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology
Roadmapping should help teams answer ques- • Manufacturing At The Nanoscale
tions such as: How will fields interact to create innova- • Nanostructures for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and
tions? What innovations will occur and when? What is Explosive (CBRE) Detection and Protection
needed to create innovations? What are gating factors for
innovations?
© 2003-2005 Albright Strategy Group, LLC 3 October 31, 2003 (Rev. 12/8/03, 1/15/04, 1/23/05)
The next table lists Grand Challenges in Global Growth trends. Identification of long term, sus-
Health defined by the Foundation for NIH in October, tained growth trends is central to understanding which
2003 [9]. inventions can become innovations. Trends in enabling
technology result in continued declining costs for tech-
GOAL: To improve childhood vaccines:
GC#1 Create effective single-dose vaccines that can be used nology applications and increasing sophistication of
soon after birth; applications.
GC#2 Prepare vaccines that do not require refrigeration; Declining costs of technology allow increasingly
GC#3 Develop needle-free delivery systems for vaccines.
complex applications. These trends have been apparent
GOAL: To create new vaccines:
GC#4 Devise reliable tests in model systems to evaluate live
in information technology for more than 40 years. For
attenuated vaccines; example, Figure 5 shows the exponential growth of com-
GC#5 Solve how to design antigens for effective, protective puting power that began in the 1940’s and continues at
immunity; the present [3].
GC#6 Learn which immunological responses provide protec-
1015
tive immunity.
IBM ASCI White
GOAL: To control insects that transmit agents of disease: 1014 Lawrence Livermore
GC#7 Develop a genetic strategy to deplete or incapacitate a National Laboratory
1013 Intel ASCI Red
disease-transmitting insect population; Sandia National
GC#8 Develop a chemical strategy to deplete or incapacitate a TeraFLOP 1012 Laboratory
Hitachi/Tsukuba
disease-transmitting insect population. CP-PACS/2048 Fujitsu
1011
GOAL: To improve nutrition to promote health: 'NWT' NAL
Intel XP/S140
GC#9 Create a full range of optimal, bioavailable nutrients in a 1010 Sandia National
single staple plant species. GigaFLOP 109 CRAY YMP
Laboratory
GC#11 Create therapies that can cure latent infections; MegaFLOP 106 CDC 6600
GC#12 Create immunological methods that can cure chronic IBM STRETCH
105
infections. IBM 7090
Business
becoming practical in compact, often portable electronics
Cognitive
Organization
with the use of low cost memory and digital signal proc-
Nano
Applications
Info
MOVING FORWARD
To prepare to move ahead with roadmapping for
converging technologies, teams should work in three ar-
eas, defining applications and related technology areas,
identifying trends, and refining architectures.
© 2003-2005 Albright Strategy Group, LLC 5 October 31, 2003 (Rev. 12/8/03, 1/15/04, 1/23/05)
Figure 7. Application Mapping to Technology Fields
Nano Bio Information Cognitive
Application technology technology Technology Science
NNI Grand challenges (2001)
Nanostructured Materials “By Design;” X
Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics X X
Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics X X X
Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement X
Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage X X
Microcraft And Robotics X X
Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology X X
Manufacturing At The Nanoscale X
Nanostructures for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Explo- X X X
sive (CBRE) Detection and Protection
GOAL: To measure disease and health status accurately and economically in developing countries:
© 2003-2005 Albright Strategy Group, LLC 6 October 31, 2003 (Rev. 12/8/03, 1/15/04, 1/23/05)