Tarlac State University
College of Architecture and Fine Arts
San Isidro, Campus
Panel Data Estimation of Crime Rates in the
Philippines
Prepared by:
Larla Laine Taruc
Mike O Briant
Julius Salunga
Enzo Basco
Adrian Naelgas
Ryann Reyes
Christian Mariano
Harlyn Pascua
Panel Data Estimation of Crime Rates in the
Philippines
I. Abstract
This study used panel data of index crime rates for the 13 regions of the Philippines over
the period 2014-2018 to analyze the determinants of crime rates in the country using the
constant coefficient model. As different types of index crimes are likely to be influenced
by different factors, the total index crime rate was disaggregated into three parts: (a)
crimes against person (murder, homicide, and physical injury); (b) crimes against
property (robbery and theft); and (c) rape. The data reveal that, of the potential factors
used to associate the fluctuations of the recorded crime rates (social, economic, criminal
justice, and demographic factors), the economic factors are the robust determinants of
crime rates. That is, the more stable the economy is, the lesser the crime. The study
highlighted the following findings: The determinant to explain the variation of crimes
against person per 100,000 inhabitants are: (1) per capita gross regional domestic
product; (2) average income of the people in urban and rural; (3) consumer price index;
(4) cohort survival rate in elementary education. For the crimes against property, the
determinants are: (1) per capita gross regional domestic product; (2) income inequality
proxied by gini coefficient; (4) cohort survival rate in secondary education. There are only
two significant determinants of crime rate on rape incidence: unemployment rate ad
population density
II. Introduction
Crime is one of the most prevalent problems in any society. People live in fear and are
even afraid to leave their houses. The rate of crime is increasing in all parts of the world.
Some people don’t work to work for the things they want so they think it is easier to take
it from other people. No one has the right to take anyway anything from another person
that doesn’t belong to them. Crime represents a deviation from the social norms.
They are divided into various categories depending on how severe the offense is, the age
of the offender, and type of punishment the offender will get. In today’s world,
The Philippines, being a developing country, is not exempted from occurrences of crimes.
Newspapers and television news updates are loaded with all sorts of “misbehavior”:
murder, rape, theft, robbery and others. For this study, the author classifies crimes into
three: crimes against property (e.g. theft), crimes against person (e.g. murder), and rape.
Though the latter could be considered crime against person, it was decided that it should
be separated from the rest because it is believed that it has different influencing factor.
However, it is noted that crime rates plunged over the past two decades. In fact, rates
declined almost yearly. Between 1981 and 2000, crime rates for the crimes against
property and crimes against person declined by approximately 80% and 61% respectively.
On the regional picture, in the year 2001, statistics from Philippine National Police (PNP)
showed that for crimes against person, Southern Tagalog (Region 4) has the highest
crime volume recorded, followed by the National Capital Region, Central Visayas (Region
7), Western Visayas (Region 6), then Bicol Region (Region 5). For crimes against property,
National Capital Region was ranked as first, followed by Central Visayas, Southern
Tagalog, Central Luzon (Region 3), Western Mindanao (Region 9), then Northern
Mindanao (Region 10). What may be the key factors behind these declining trends?
people commit criminal offenses, get away with them and prosecute other people for the
same crimes they committed. People commit crimes due to various reasons
III. Objectives
The general objective of the study is to present an over-all picture of the crime trends in
the Philippines (considering 13 regions) within a period of eighteen years (2014-2018),
without necessarily looking for root causes nor hoping to offer solutions to these crimes.
Specifically, the study aims:
1. to identify social, economic and criminal justice factors associated with fluctuations in
the recorded crime rates;
2. to measure the magnitude of change in the crime rate per unit change of each of the
significant explanatory variables; and
3. to use important outputs for policy making or assessment purposes
IV. Scope of the Study
The study focuses on the index crimes over the period 2014-2018 expressed in crime
rate. Index crimes are those violations of the penal code. They are considered to have
socioeconomic significance, and they occur with sufficient regularity. These include
crimes against person (murder, homicide, physical injury and rape), and crimes against
property (robbery and theft). All other crimes are classified as non-index
Only a limited number of potential influences on crime can be quantified,
so that not all-influencing factors can be assessed since the study formulated a statistical
model.
[Link]
2016 crimes in the Philippines
Philippines' crime rate falls 13% in 2016
Categories of crimes which includes homicide, murder, physical injury, rape, robbery and
theft -- numbered 139,462 for [Link], "non-index crimes," or those that
involve violations of special laws and ordinances, made up the remaining 445,347
instances.
In manila the number of crimes committed in the Philippines dropped by 13 percent in
2016, according to records from the national police, showing a continuation of the
downtrend in the last four years, and amid President Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs
which was launched last year.
Data obtained by Kyodo News from the Philippine National Police indicates that the total
crime volume across the country fell from 675,816 recorded incidents in 2015 to 584,809
in [Link] Against Crime and Corruption, a local crime watch group, believes
Duterte's illegal drugs campaign has added much to the decline in the number of crimes
in the last year. Dante Jimenez, the group's founding chairman told Kyodo News, stating
that that a large number of crimes in the country are borne out of drug addiction.
The overall index crime rate went down but the murder rate soared during the first 5
months of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, according to latest figures
from the Philippine National Police (PNP).
The Presidential Communications Office, in a press release, said PNP figures showed the
index crime volume declining to 55,391 from July-November this year, compared to
81,064 from July-November 2015, or a drop of 31.67 [Link] PNP defines index
crimes as against persons, such as murder, homicide, physical injury and rape, and crimes
against property like robbery, theft, carnapping, and cattle rustling.
Crimes against property slid down 42.48 percent, from 52,075 last year to 29,953 this
year, the PNP said. Crimes against persons, on the other hand, fell 12.25 percent from
28,989 to 24,[Link] PNP said the total crime volume decreased by 13% through the
first and second quarters of 2016 -- from 52,950 crime incidents in January to 46,060 in
June 2016. The police figures show that in the January-August period of 2015, serious
crime was down 22 percent compared with the same period the previous year. In 2014, it
declined 26 percent. Nearly 2,300 people have been killed in police operations or by
suspected vigilantes since Duterte took office on June 30, according to the Philippines
police. That figure was revised down this month by the police from an original tally of
3,600 deaths.
Dela Rosa said the PNP will focus on preventing and solving seven crimes, namely:
7 focused crimes:
murder, homicide, theft, robbery, physical injuries, car and motorcycle theft, rape.
Crimes, except homicide, in the Philippines down by 21.8% in 2017
MANILA, Philippines – The volume of crimes in the Philippines has dropped in 2017, data
from the Philippine National Police (PNP) show.
According to numbers acquired by Rappler from the PNP's Directorate for Investigation
and Detective Management (DIDM), there was a total of 100,668 index crimes recorded
from January to November 2017.
It represents a 21.8% drop from the period in 2016, where they recorded 128,730 index
crime incidents.
The December crime data is set to be released in mid-January 2018.
Index crimes are offenses against persons and against property that are recognized
nationwide and used by the PNP to assess public safety.
Non-index crimes refer to violations of special laws and ordinances. Because the counts
vary as one crosses local government territories, the PNP does not use them as a gauge
of public safety.
PNP spokesperson Chief Superintendent Dionardo Carlos said the numbers show that the
country has become a "safer" place in 2017.
"If we would look at the crime environment as the basis, then 2017 is safer for Filipinos or
anybody here in the Philippines," Carlos told Rappler in an interview.
PNP: Total crime volume down in 2018
MANILA, Philippines — The number of crimes in the country went down by at least nine
percent last year, the Philippine National Police (PNP) announced yesterday.
PNP records showed a total of 473,068 crimes were recorded in 2018. The figure was
9.13 percent lower compared to 520,641 crimes posted in 2017.
The eight focus crimes -– murder, homicide, physical injury, rape, robbery, theft,
carjacking of four-wheeled vehicles and motorcycles – went down by 28.14 percent, from
107,254 cases in 2017 to 77,068 last year.
Robbery cases registered the highest drop with 32.38 percent, from 16,076 to 10,870.
Theft incidents decreased by 31.49 percent, from 34,435 to 23,590.
Murder cases dropped by 22.20 percent, from 8,826 to 6,866. Homicide cases posted a
17.01 percent decrease from 2,592 to 2,151.
Cases of physical injuries went down by 29.95 percent, from 30,691 to 21,498.
Among the localities across the country, Quezon City recorded the highest number with a
total crime volume of 41,152.
But the PNP said 36,707 or 89.19 percent of the incidents were non-index crimes such as
vehicular accidents and violations of local laws.
Manila ranked second with 21,386 crimes followed by Cebu City with 12,130, the PNP
said.
PNP spokesman Senior Superintendent Bernard Banac attributed the decrease in the
crime rate to the Duterte administration’s efforts to go hard on crime rings.
President Duterte has launched a crackdown on illegal drugs and other crimes since he
assumed office in 2016.
“The intensified law enforcement operations and the drug war have direct bearing on
the decrease in the total crime volume nationwide,” Banac said.
He cited a recent survey by the Social Weather Stations, which showed that the number
of drug users have decreased, resulting in fewer drug-related crimes.
The PNP will continue to further bring down the number of crimes in the country, Banac
said.
“We assure the public that the PNP will continue to vigorously enforce the law, pursue
the campaign against drugs and prevent crimes with respect for human rights and value
of life,” he said.
PNP: says total crime volume down 20% in first two years of Duterte
term
Amid the high-profile killings of politicians in recent weeks, the Philippine National Police
announced Sunday that the country's total crime volume has gone down by 20 percent in
the first two years of President Rodrigo Duterte's term.
A day before Duterte is scheduled to deliver his third State of the Nation Address, the
PNP said that from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2018, the Philippines' two-year Total Crime
Volume fell by 20.4 percent from the previous two-year total for the period from July 1,
2014 to June 30, 2016.
The statement did not include actual numbers for the Total Crime Volume, but stated
that the number of index crimes "plunged 46.95 percent to only 212,773 incidents, from
July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2018 from a high of 401,112 incidents recorded in the previous 2-
year period."
The Philippine Statistics Authority defines index crimes as crimes that are "sufficiently
significant and which occur with sufficient regularity to be meaningful." Included in this
category are murder, homicide, robbery, theft, carnapping, and physical injury.
According to the PNP, there were 99,773 incidents of crimes against persons from July
2016 to June 2018, a number 30.42 percent lower than the 143,385 incidents reported in
the same period from 2014 to 2016.
The PNP also said that there was a 56.16-percent decline in crimes against property,
including fewer robbery (52.12 percent), theft (58.50 percent) and carnapping (50.10
percent) incidents, as part of a "steady downtrend over the past five years.
VI. Recommendations
The results show that the economic factors are the robust determinants of crime rates. This
implies that generally, the more the stable the economy is, the lower the crime rates. Thus, it is
recommended that policy makers should focus on the stabilization of the economy because it
has a significant influence on the variation of crime rates.
One disturbing result of the study is that there is only a little support between the
relationship of the number of policemen and crime rates; that is, the number of
policemen is not statistically significant for the three models. There are two opposing
implications for this: first, the number of policemen is not just really enough to influence
crime rates; second, policemen are just inefficient on their job that is why they cannot
simply influence the crime rates. There is also a big possibility to have both. It is
recommended that the government should: hire additional policemen; conduct more
extensive training, seminars, and reeducating for the old and new policemen; provide
enough and advance facilities because policemen might not be effective even with their
number if their facilities are outmoded or outdated.
A caution must be addressed to the findings because statistical significance between
crime rates and to their explanatory variables does not mean, nor does it mean to imply
that the derived relevant explanatory variables cause crime. Furthermore, the results
should also be interpreted with caution because crime per se is complex since it involves
factors beyond law enforcement, economic, social and demographic conditions such as
the strength of the family, relationship with the neighborhoods, schools and churches.
This study could be considered as benchmark information on crime rates and factors
influencing them
VII. Conclusions
It is quite obvious that the rate of crimes are increasing day by day in all societies in the
world, but I personally do believe that there are a lot which can be done by both the
governments and the individuals to reduce the crimes in communities.
A lot of important measures, on the one hand, can be taken by the governments in order
to reduce or even eradicate different types of crimes .First, governments can introduce
more police forces everywhere to monitor people s activities and stop them from
committing crimes. Second, the state can apply new technologies such as surveillance
cameras in the streets, shopping centers, restaurants and all public places to cease
criminals .Third, strict punishments on criminals can have really preventive and deterrent
effects on all age groups in society so by using harsh penalties like emprisonment,
physical or financial punishments the rate of crimes can be decreased.
On the other hand, individuals in societies can be of great help to cut down on the
number of crimes being committed. To my mind, the overwhelming majority of people
tend to participate in activities assisting the government to keep the society a safe place
for their own families and the others and for all age groups .Take as an example, most
people by reporting the problems to police can play an indispensable role in crime-
prevention activities. In addition, when people themselves care about decreasing heinous
crimes in cities, it can be sort of a preventive action to harness well the situation in
society by government as well.
To conclude, in order for a society to be a safe place to live in, all society members
including the governments and people must take necessary measurements to keep it a
crime-free place
